PART 01: All of a sudden the Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo Program has exploded higher to half-a-trillion dollars. Why? The mainstream, orthodox narrative is that 'this is fine'; a response to 'too many bank reserves'. What does it really mean? Collateral scarcity. Systemic fragility. A warning. PART 02: Chile, one of the 20th-century's rare economic success stories - from a low level of development to just short of advanced - held an election to rewrite its constitution. The winners? Anti-capi...
Jun 02, 2021•1 hr 8 min•Ep. 79
PART 01: On May 26, 2021 the Earth will witness a Super Flower Blood Moon - a sure sign of the apocalypse (again). It is no wonder then that, with the end upon us all, the Federal Reserve took the opportunity to confess in their recent meeting minutes that bank reserves are not money. PART 02: There may be no better view into the incomprehensibly complex global monetary order than the Treasury International Capital report. We review the March TIC report and find a number of positive, good reflat...
May 31, 2021•1 hr 16 min•Ep. 78
"Inflation" is a generalized, sustained increase in consumer prices. A spike in consumer prices is just that - a transitory spike. Watch as Jeff gives four reasons and examples (2000, 2008, 2021 bond yields and auctions) why the probabilities favor a rise in CPI, not "inflation". ---------SEE IT----------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3n...
May 24, 2021•38 min•Ep. 77
Historian and geopolitical strategist George Friedman's commentary on two concepts of international relations: a liberal international order and a rules-based system. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " South Is That Way " by Lofive featuring Divty at Epidemic Sound . ----------WHAT---------- The Myth of a Rules-Based World: https://bit.ly/3ugx2yP ----------WHERE---------...
May 21, 2021•12 min•Ep. 76
PART 01: In the 1930s the economic devastation was so bad that only radical solutions remained. But then, like now in our Silent Depression, radicalism does not mean success necessarily. The key is to first understand why the devastation in the first place. Otherwise? Dictators. PART 02: Starting in October 2019 the Federal Reserve began to buy US Treasury Bills, EXCLUSIVELY. Starting in March 2020 the Fed stopped buy UST Bills, EXPLICITLY. What happened in between? Only the second Global Financ...
May 20, 2021•1 hr 3 min•Ep. 75
Geopolitical analyst Allison Fedirka explains what made some countries socioeconomic success stories, where the next emerging market stars may be, and whether a decentralized international balance is in our future. ---------SEE IT----------- Geopolitical Futures: https://bit.ly/3hv7Px0 LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3eN7qEi Twitter: https://twitter.com/AFedirka Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: ...
May 17, 2021•1 hr 23 min•Ep. 74
Might the economy take off? According to a Wall Street Journal opinion column, solid wage growth and unfilled openings point to much less labor market slack than headline unemployment data. Jeff Snider reacts live. ---------SEE IT----------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z C...
May 14, 2021•18 min•Ep. 73
From 2009-12 Buffett warned that emergency monetary and fiscal action would stoke inflation, that the dollar was in the hands of a profligate Congress and that Treasuries would lose real value. He was wrong. Now he's back. "Number one rule of Wall Street: nobody - I don't care if you're Warren Buffett or Jimmy Buffett - nobody knows if the stock's going to go up, down, sideways, or in [#]ucking circles; least of all stockbrokers. It's all a Fugazzi. You know what a Fugazzi is?" - Matthew McConau...
May 12, 2021•32 min•Ep. 72
Professor Sissoko focuses attention on the fact that the post-2008 financial system has changed dramatically but that technocrats have not tackled what the changes mean. Sissoko discusses the path to the 2008 and 2020 shocks and proposes we turn the clock back to a wiser time. ---------SEE IT----------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoV...
May 10, 2021•54 min•Ep. 71
Historian and geopolitical strategist George Friedman's commentary on the (un)likelihood of war with China and Russia. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures . Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Sweet Violet " by Yi Nantiro at Epidemic Sound . ----------WHAT---------- The Unlikelihood of a War With China and Russia: https://bit.ly/2Rg3LWn The most dangerous place on Earth: https://econ.st/3nHHcG5 Putin’s next ...
May 07, 2021•15 min•Ep. 70
The Economist magazine states that "the covid-19 crisis is highlighting the limits of unemployment-insurance figures" and therefore "jobless-claims data give little insight into America’s economy". Jeff Snider reacts Live! to the article and offers his own thoughts. ---------SEE IT----------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: ...
May 05, 2021•18 min•Ep. 69
PART 01: The rise and fall of an arbitrage trade by hedge funds known as the Treasury cash-futures basis trade. That was the focus of an excellent research paper by two government researchers. But there's just one problem. They don't ask what caused the rise of the basis trade in the first place. PART 02: Open interest in US Treasury Long Bond futures have crossed the 800,000-line only a few times in the past quarter-century. Nothing ever good happened in markets or the world economy when that h...
May 03, 2021•1 hr 12 min•Ep. 68
PART 01: Government stimulus seems to work sometimes (e.g. US recessions after WW2). Other times it clearly fails: 1970s USSR, 1980s S. America and Africa, 1990s Japan, and USA post-2008. Presidents Bush (ECA 2008), Obama (ARRA 2009) and Trump (TCJA 2017) tried and failed. Will Biden be any different? PART 02: When public debt rises to around 90% of GDP economic growth falls by 1% each year. A review of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff's study and a look at global debt levels in 2008, 2011 and...
Apr 26, 2021•1 hr 2 min•Ep. 67
In 2014 the St. Louis Federal Reserve noted that despite a MASSIVE increase in money the expected 4 to 6% inflation did not materialize. The researchers suggest it was a "liquidity trap". Yes, and no. But mostly no. ---------SEE IT----------- Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Art: https://davidparkins.com/ ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn App...
Apr 22, 2021•21 min•Ep. 66
-----PART 01 SUMMARY------ US President Jimmy Carter told the nation that the US dollar's devaluation "is clearly not warranted by the fundamental economic situation". In fact, it was unreservedly deserved as the necessary consequence of prolonged official incompetence. -----PART 02 SUMMARY------ US producer prices surged in the month of March. But Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell said they won't last, that they are "transitory". HE IS RIGHT! But the reason he gives - the covo - is not correc...
Apr 19, 2021•1 hr 6 min•Ep. 65
The Economist says, 'No! They are white knights to be held in reserve; don't sully them with politics.' Jeff Snider agrees on the 'No!', but for entirely opposite reasons. ---------SEE IT----------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https...
Apr 16, 2021•15 min•Ep. 64
Karen King of the Harvard Divinity School wasn't the first 'professor' to discover "the long-buried secret of Jesus' marriage." That distinction belongs to fellow Harvard faculty member Robert Langdon, protagonist in Dan Brown's 2003 novel, The Da Vinci Code. Langdon was a fiction. King on the other hand was not; she held the very real Hollis Professorship of Divinity established in 1721 - the oldest, and arguably most prestigious, endowed chair in America. And there she was, in Rome, just seven...
Apr 14, 2021•1 hr 5 min•Ep. 63
"I glanced at the list, running over names (probably misspelled) that meant nothing to me, with my hand on the butt of my righthand gun. That one now contained a very special load. According to Vannay, there was only one sure way to kill a skin-man: with a piercing object of the holy metal. I had paid the blacksmith in gold, but the bullet he’d made me – the one that would roll under the hammer at first cock – was pure silver." The scene is from The Wind Through the Keyhole, a 2012 Stephen King ...
Apr 06, 2021•1 hr 15 min•Ep. 62
So says Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a recent Wall Street Journal opinion column. Jeff Snider listens and reacts to Powell's case that the disruption wasn't the Fed's fault and that the central bank did the best it could. ---------SEE IT----------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: h...
Mar 31, 2021•17 min•Ep. 61
Jeff Snider is in his element in Episode 60, in which he observes the 20th anniversary of quantitative easing and notes the unsettling twist in oil futures; also, he reacts to the Federal Reserve Chairman who recently likened the Fed's actions last year, to the heroic Dunkirk evacuation. Your podcaster on the other hand comes out of the gate staggering by slandering everyone's favorite nation: New Zealand. Operating under the false impression that The Hobbit was a documentary, this podcaster ope...
Mar 29, 2021•1 hr•Ep. 60
March 23, 2020 is a day that no financial market participant will forget. It was the day that America's S&P 500 put in its low and stock prices began their climb to "what looks like a permanently high plateau." More importantly, it was the day that Making Sense debuted. Yes, Jeff Snider and I decided that what the world really needed in the time of Covid and financial Armageddon was another financial podcast, and that we were going to give it to them. To commemorate the anniversary I propose...
Mar 23, 2021•45 min•Ep. 59
Welcome to Making Sense. Jeff Snider and I are joined by a very special guest, Izabella Kaminska who has accomplished many accomplished things, including being the editor of FT Alphaville, the Financial Times blog. Though to refer to Alphaville as a mere blog, would be a gross disservice. No ladies and gentlemen, it is much more than that. It is the modern-day equivalent of the 17th-century London coffeehouse. Both, forums for transactions, spirited debate, and the exchange of information, ideas...
Mar 22, 2021•1 hr 48 min•Ep. 58
Will stagnation follow the Biden Boom? So asks New York Times columnist (and Nobel memorial prize winner) Paul Krugman. Jeff Snider listens and reacts to Krugman's lament that, though the relief bill is done, recovery may be harder. ---------SEE IT----------- AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/3...
Mar 18, 2021•20 min•Ep. 57
Space, the final metaphor. Why do central bankers offer spirographic, retrograde answers? Because they operate within a Ptolemaic paradigm - a geocentric model of our monetary system in which the central bank is the hub around which all else revolves. Why is unobservable, offshore credit fundamentally important? Because like dark matter and dark energy, this shadow money represents the broad majority of material and heat that constitute our monetary universe. Which brings your podcaster to the 2...
Mar 15, 2021•1 hr 5 min•Ep. 56
Wolf ponders what central banks should target (e.g. inflation, asset prices, social justice, nominal GDP). Incredibly at no point in the article was targeting actual money supply considered. WILD! ---------SPONSOR---------- But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! Friends, do you direct the Treasury Ministry? Do your political masters expect foaming asset prices? Are you unsure how to produce lasting froth? Then a box of Bath Suds from Eurodollar Enterprises is for you! Yes, practice blowing...
Mar 10, 2021•18 min•Ep. 55
"The pen is mightier than the sword." "The great unwashed." "Pursuit of the almighty dollar." These are prhases we have all heard and they come from a single source: 19th century English writer and politician Edward George Earle Lytton Bulwer-Lytton. Bulwer-Lytton was a successful novelist, poet and playwright. His political accomplishments included nine years in Parliament, serving as the British Colonial Secretary, and being offered - AND TURNING DOWN - both a lordship of the Admiralty AND the...
Mar 08, 2021•1 hr 7 min•Ep. 54
Should speculative ventures be included in calculations of inflation? What about productive investment? Housing? All transactions? Or just consumer prices? ----------WHERE---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Cast...
Mar 03, 2021•17 min•Ep. 53
The theme of Making Sense Episode 52 is how an environment reacts to an anomaly. Resilient systems keep these aberrations constrained. But fragile ones can retroactively redefine what had earlier been labeled as an "irregularity", "oddity" or "operational error" to something altogether more unsettling: "cause", "spark", "trigger". In part one, Jeff Snider continues his multi-week review of historical breaks to the smooth functioning of interbank payment and messaging systems. This time a look at...
Mar 01, 2021•57 min•Ep. 52
Michael Pettis of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " The Village Idiot " by Justnormal at Epidemic Sound . ----------WHAT---------- How Trump’s Tariffs Really Affected the U.S. Job Market: https://bit.ly/2P7qHWJ ----------WHERE---------- Pettis' Writings: https://carnegieendowment.org/experts/444 Pettis' Twitter: https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https...
Feb 26, 2021•24 min•Ep. 51
Part 01: (01:30 to 38:27) What are monetary technocrats / financiers doing to save the world economy? We review: yield curve control in Australia (and Japan!), American regulators tip-toeing away from a once-favored LIBOR alternative, and the ecstatic economic expectations of German financiers. Part 02: (38:27 to 1:05:19) A Financial Times column warns of a US Treasury Bill air-pocket in March. Learn the little-known history of a mid-market, 1970s German bank that compelled regulators to move to...
Feb 22, 2021•1 hr 17 min•Ep. 50
