Britain just lost another prime minister. Keir Starmer, the man who came to power in 2024 with one of the biggest election victories in modern British history, resigned today after less than two years in office. But this is not just some Westminster drama. The real question today is this: Are President Trump and Republicans in Congress watching? Are they paying attention? Are they next? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -----------------------------------------------------------...
Jun 23, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1419
Swiss bond yields are almost back at zero. The key two-year instrument yields just a couple of basis points and is very likely going to be negative again relatively soon. As we know, Swiss interest rates have very little to do with Switzerland. As a global money center, this is where money goes when it doesn’t want to be anywhere else – even to the point international financials are willing to accept zero return to be there. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ----------------...
Jun 22, 2026•24 min•Ep. 1418
Something very strange is happening in global markets and in particular one key eurodollar signal that hardly anyone pays much attention to. Everywhere you look, investors are acting like the party is back on. U.S. stocks are surging. Tech stocks are ripping. Semiconductors are 1999-ing it right now. But then there is Hong Kong. Its main stock index, the Hang Seng is not joining the celebration. It’s going in the opposite direction and has for some time now. That’s big because HK is a major Asia...
Jun 21, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1417
Oil prices are down big. And if you only looked at the headline, the explanation seems obvious: Iran peace deal, supply normalization, geopolitical risk premium coming out. Except that is not what the market is really saying. Or should I say markets plural. There is a lot going on across various curves that shed a very different light on the crude plunge. Big changes in Treasuries, huge, huge shift in TIPS, more than you’d think, and of course oil prices themselves. Eurodollar University's Money...
Jun 19, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1416
Private credit is changing again. And this time, the story is not just that investors are still trying to pull money out. That is still happening, of course, with BlackRock the latest name too see a huge run. But now there is another problem. It is not only that current investors want out. It is that new investors aren’t coming in. That is a much bigger shift. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wha...
Jun 18, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1415
China just hit another record, though not the kind officials want to talk about. Not record growth. Not record confidence. Not record consumer spending. A record decline in household borrowing. Chinese households are not just borrowing less. They are pulling back at a pace we have not seen before in comparable data. And that is the real warning because this is exactly where China’s worsening downturn becomes much harder to explain away. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------...
Jun 17, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1414
Most people think they understand the dollar. When the dollar goes up, they think that means America is strong. Good economy. Good policy. Maybe the Federal Reserve is doing a good job and investors are “choosing America.” And when the dollar goes down, they think that must be bad. Inflation. Debasement. Money printing. The end of dollar dominance and the famous “dollar doom” story. But what if those are completely backwards? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------...
Jun 16, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1413
India is now being forced to ration diesel fuel for the first time maybe ever. At the same time, global stocks of crude oil are at their lowest since 2003. Even inventories here in the US have been drained to levels we haven’t witnessed in 20 years. In other words, as hopes for a peace deal with Iran rise, our attention must now turn to this critical next stage. While the conflict might subside, hopefully, this thing is far from over. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ------...
Jun 15, 2026•24 min•Ep. 1412
The European Central Bank just raised rates on Thursday into an economy that is already shrinking. That sentence should sound familiar, because Europe has done this before. Not once. Twice. The two questions we now want to ask are, first, whether the ECB’s action will pull others including the Fed into this rate hiking gambit. Second, how long could they hang on hawking before they have to turn around. And what can the markets tell us about both. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysi...
Jun 14, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1411
Gold and silver have been crushed this week and we need to not only explain why, just as important what this drop is telling us about more than precious metals. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Webinar June 2026: Why Smart Investors Keep Missing Every Major Economic Turning Point It isn't that they're buying the wrong assets. They're using a broken map of the monetary system — and getting it wrong leads to catastrophic decisions. Let's fix that. ...
Jun 12, 2026•41 min•Ep. 1410
The Asian currency crisis is escalating and it’s forcing governments all over the region to get desperate. From India to Indonesia, South Korea and Japan, their situations are becoming a genuine threat to stability. When a country’s currency falls because of a dollar shortage, it is not just a foreign-exchange problem. It is not just a bad day on a currency chart. It can become a destabilizing feedback loop. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------------...
Jun 11, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1409
What Is a Credit Cycle — and Where Are We in It? These are questions that keep coming up with everything that’s happening in…the credit market. Not just private credit and shadow banks, but thinking more broadly. Those are where all the downside signals are strongest and where all the excitement is right now. But credit cycles go beyond one sector’s garbage lending and cockroach production. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------------------------------...
Jun 10, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1408
Bond yields rose sharply on Friday, but why? What you’ll hear is that inflation and a strong economy will force the Fed to hike. But that’s only half true – the possibility of the rate hike. All the rest of it, not so much. Both markets and American consumers agree wholeheartedly on all of it. In fact, on Friday, inflation expectations in Treasuries dropped to their lowest levels since early March. Yeah, lowest since the start of the conflict and they were never high to begin with. Eurodollar Un...
Jun 09, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1407
We’re used to seeing this kind of thing out of the payroll reports, but I don’t think anyone really expected this. Red flags are up all over the May data, coming from all sides. Not the least of which is the context behind all the big problems in the numbers. When dollar stores complain that consumers are no longer able to buy food from dollar stores, you know everything is really out of whack. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre -----------------------------------------------...
Jun 08, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1406
Europe is preparing its public for something it has tried to avoid for years: a trade fight with China. While all eyes are on Iran and oil, the energy shock is only adding more urgency to a brewing economic battle between two of the world’s biggest markets. According to recent reports, the European Commission has already held closed-door discussions about the next steps against Beijing. The global trade wars are about to blow open. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------...
Jun 07, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1405
Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund just did something it had never done before. Investors tried to pull out about 10% of the fund’s shares. Blackstone finally and for the first time ever said, NO. The $79 billion Blackstone Private Credit Fund, known as B-CRED, told shareholders it would only allow 5% of shares to be redeemed. And this is where the story gets uncomfortable. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -----------------------------------------------------------------...
Jun 05, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1404
The private credit bust is no longer staying inside private credit. Investors are now pulling money out of a major Swiss private **equity** fund. As the guy once said, this is a big f-ing deal. For months, the story was supposed to be contained. A few private credit funds had redemption pressure. A few non-traded BDCs had to limit withdrawals. Some flighty investors supposedly misunderstood the liquidity terms. The industry’s defense was simple: this is not a credit crisis. This is just a liquid...
Jun 04, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1403
European banks are doing something that looks irrational. The European Central Bank is increasingly likely to raise its short-term policy rates again. Oil prices are still elevated. Energy costs are feeding into headline inflation. ECB officials keep coming on hawkish. And normally, if you believe short-term rates are going higher, the last thing you’re going to do is rush into government bonds. But European banks are doing exactly that. And in huge amounts. Eurodollar University's Money & M...
Jun 03, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1402
Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/k4lMFDZ or code euro50 for 50% Off Monarch Core tier. Oil is rebounding again and we have to ask whether it might be the final blow for an economy that was already on the edge to begin with. After all, in yesterday’s video, steve and I showed you the income data that looks just like a recession. The energy shock is turning into somethin...
Jun 02, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1401
Did a recession strike the US economy starting in October? Not just the forgot how to grow kind we’ve been grappling with for the last several years, but the all-out, NBER-style, full-blown contraction. Take a look at the data and the charts in this video, let’s see what you think. And that data is coming from income series the NBER itself uses when it decides the recession question. Eurodollar University's Conversation w/ Steve Van Metre ---------------------------------------------------------...
Jun 01, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1400
Canada just “unexpectedly” fell into a technical recession. But the important part is not just that Canada contracted. The important part is that Canada’s contraction is lining up with the same weakness now spreading through France, the UK, Germany, Sweden, Mexico, and increasingly the rest of the global system. As one result, central bankers hawkishness is starting to seriously evaporate. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------------------------------------------------------...
May 31, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1399
Private credit has a new problem, and this one is different. For months, the story has been retail investors pulling money from private credit funds. But now we have something else. A Swiss pension fund redeeming shares from a Vista private credit vehicle helped force that fund to limit withdrawals. And that's before asking the question: is software credit the new subprime mortgage? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------------...
May 29, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1398
JPMorgan just took the Goldilocks off the table. That is not a minor forecast change or some little tweak to a spreadsheet buried on page 47 of a Wall Street outlook. When one of the biggest banks in the world says “Goldilocks is leaving the building” and starts worrying about a **negative growth shock**, what they’re really saying is something big has changed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lear...
May 28, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1397
Home prices are now doing something they were not supposed to do. After years of being told that housing was poised to make a strong comeback and that prices were going to accelerate upward, the latest national housing data is saying something very different: the lowest price rate in fourteen years, going all the way back to the bottom of the Big Housing Bust in 2012. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------------------------------------------------...
May 27, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1396
For the first time in this cycle, the money going out of major private credit vehicles has surpassed the money coming in. That is the headline, how private credit machine is now facing sustained investor outflows. Stage 2. And here’s the other big part of that – these net outflows are indeed forcing asset sales onto an industry that was never really built for this. That means we’re already deeper into Stage 2 than most people would think. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------...
May 26, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1395
While rumors and reports swirl about a possible Iran deal, the clock is still ticking for an economy that’s way too close to the point of no return on the energy shock. In fact, for Europe, there is a nontrivial chance it’s already gone past. With the latest data out on Friday, the economic numbers for May so far got slammed. It increasingly looks like Europe may have already gone over the cliff with S&P describing France as in a quote “dire” situation. Eurodollar University's Money & Ma...
May 25, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1394
The dollar is rising again, and this time the pressure is showing up right across Asia. The Japanese yen is weak. The South Korean won is tumbling. The Indonesian rupiah is crashing. The Indian rupee keeps finding new ways to give officials fits. At the same time the dollar is rising against these Asian currencies, the very front of the U.S. dollar interest-rate market is doing something absolutely incredible. Shocking even. Completely the opposite of what you’d think. And here’s the thing – the...
May 24, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1393
Lowe’s had some more bad news about the American consumer. CEO Marvin Ellison said “This has been the most difficult housing market that I have faced in this business since the financial crisis.” Lowe’s is hardly alone. Walmart said higher income shoppers are still trading down while lower income Americans are, well, they’re running out of their tax refund money. And then there is Kroger. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------...
May 22, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1392
Treasury yields have finally made a sizable move upward. The 2-year Treasury has pushed to new multi-month highs. The 10-year got as high as 4.70%. And instantly, the usual question shows up: Is the bond market finally repricing real inflation risk? Or is this another hurricane warning where everyone looks at the headline number, panics for five minutes, and misses what the curve is actually saying? Make that curve-S. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------...
May 21, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1391
China’s downturn just produced a major hit and it has officials stumped. It was the kind of bad that confirms almost everything already showing up in China’s credit data, banking system, property market, and bond market. Retail sales nearly cracked. Worst month since the lockdowns. Fixed asset investment is crashing again. Yes, crashing. Industrial production, which had been one of the few remaining bright spots, suddenly didn’t look so bright. Home prices were down for the twelfth straight time...
May 20, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1390
