The private credit bust is no longer staying inside private credit. Investors are now pulling money out of a major Swiss private **equity** fund. As the guy once said, this is a big f-ing deal. For months, the story was supposed to be contained. A few private credit funds had redemption pressure. A few non-traded BDCs had to limit withdrawals. Some flighty investors supposedly misunderstood the liquidity terms. The industry’s defense was simple: this is not a credit crisis. This is just a liquid...
Jun 04, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1403
European banks are doing something that looks irrational. The European Central Bank is increasingly likely to raise its short-term policy rates again. Oil prices are still elevated. Energy costs are feeding into headline inflation. ECB officials keep coming on hawkish. And normally, if you believe short-term rates are going higher, the last thing you’re going to do is rush into government bonds. But European banks are doing exactly that. And in huge amounts. Eurodollar University's Money & M...
Jun 03, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1402
Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/k4lMFDZ or code euro50 for 50% Off Monarch Core tier. Oil is rebounding again and we have to ask whether it might be the final blow for an economy that was already on the edge to begin with. After all, in yesterday’s video, steve and I showed you the income data that looks just like a recession. The energy shock is turning into somethin...
Jun 02, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1401
Did a recession strike the US economy starting in October? Not just the forgot how to grow kind we’ve been grappling with for the last several years, but the all-out, NBER-style, full-blown contraction. Take a look at the data and the charts in this video, let’s see what you think. And that data is coming from income series the NBER itself uses when it decides the recession question. Eurodollar University's Conversation w/ Steve Van Metre ---------------------------------------------------------...
Jun 01, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1400
Canada just “unexpectedly” fell into a technical recession. But the important part is not just that Canada contracted. The important part is that Canada’s contraction is lining up with the same weakness now spreading through France, the UK, Germany, Sweden, Mexico, and increasingly the rest of the global system. As one result, central bankers hawkishness is starting to seriously evaporate. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------------------------------------------------------...
May 31, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1399
Private credit has a new problem, and this one is different. For months, the story has been retail investors pulling money from private credit funds. But now we have something else. A Swiss pension fund redeeming shares from a Vista private credit vehicle helped force that fund to limit withdrawals. And that's before asking the question: is software credit the new subprime mortgage? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------------...
May 29, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1398
JPMorgan just took the Goldilocks off the table. That is not a minor forecast change or some little tweak to a spreadsheet buried on page 47 of a Wall Street outlook. When one of the biggest banks in the world says “Goldilocks is leaving the building” and starts worrying about a **negative growth shock**, what they’re really saying is something big has changed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lear...
May 28, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1397
Home prices are now doing something they were not supposed to do. After years of being told that housing was poised to make a strong comeback and that prices were going to accelerate upward, the latest national housing data is saying something very different: the lowest price rate in fourteen years, going all the way back to the bottom of the Big Housing Bust in 2012. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------------------------------------------------...
May 27, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1396
For the first time in this cycle, the money going out of major private credit vehicles has surpassed the money coming in. That is the headline, how private credit machine is now facing sustained investor outflows. Stage 2. And here’s the other big part of that – these net outflows are indeed forcing asset sales onto an industry that was never really built for this. That means we’re already deeper into Stage 2 than most people would think. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------...
May 26, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1395
While rumors and reports swirl about a possible Iran deal, the clock is still ticking for an economy that’s way too close to the point of no return on the energy shock. In fact, for Europe, there is a nontrivial chance it’s already gone past. With the latest data out on Friday, the economic numbers for May so far got slammed. It increasingly looks like Europe may have already gone over the cliff with S&P describing France as in a quote “dire” situation. Eurodollar University's Money & Ma...
May 25, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1394
The dollar is rising again, and this time the pressure is showing up right across Asia. The Japanese yen is weak. The South Korean won is tumbling. The Indonesian rupiah is crashing. The Indian rupee keeps finding new ways to give officials fits. At the same time the dollar is rising against these Asian currencies, the very front of the U.S. dollar interest-rate market is doing something absolutely incredible. Shocking even. Completely the opposite of what you’d think. And here’s the thing – the...
May 24, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1393
Lowe’s had some more bad news about the American consumer. CEO Marvin Ellison said “This has been the most difficult housing market that I have faced in this business since the financial crisis.” Lowe’s is hardly alone. Walmart said higher income shoppers are still trading down while lower income Americans are, well, they’re running out of their tax refund money. And then there is Kroger. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------...
May 22, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1392
Treasury yields have finally made a sizable move upward. The 2-year Treasury has pushed to new multi-month highs. The 10-year got as high as 4.70%. And instantly, the usual question shows up: Is the bond market finally repricing real inflation risk? Or is this another hurricane warning where everyone looks at the headline number, panics for five minutes, and misses what the curve is actually saying? Make that curve-S. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------...
May 21, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1391
China’s downturn just produced a major hit and it has officials stumped. It was the kind of bad that confirms almost everything already showing up in China’s credit data, banking system, property market, and bond market. Retail sales nearly cracked. Worst month since the lockdowns. Fixed asset investment is crashing again. Yes, crashing. Industrial production, which had been one of the few remaining bright spots, suddenly didn’t look so bright. Home prices were down for the twelfth straight time...
May 20, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1390
The Justice Department is now probing valuations at a BlackRock private credit fund. That sentence should stop everyone cold. Not because BlackRock is about to disappear. It isn’t. Not because one fund valuation probe means anyone has been proven to have done anything wrong. It doesn’t. A probe is not a conviction, and we need to be clear about that. But because the single biggest weakness in private credit has always been valuations. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ----------...
May 19, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1389
While the ECB and other central banks, maybe even the Fed, are likely to overreact to oil prices by raising their policy rates, suddenly that possibility isn’t so straightforward. Even in Europe where policymakers are the most aggressively hawkish, several officials have come forward expressing major doubts on the inflation narrative, focusing instead on what’s already going on with demand especially for workers. And that’s not oil, two of the world’s leading energy agencies just slashed their o...
May 18, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1388
India is now doing what governments do when the dollar problem starts getting too close to the bone: it is looking for imports it can cut, restrict, tax, license, delay, or possibly even ban. And right at the top of that list sits gold and silver. That might sound like a metals story. It isn’t. Not entirely. It’s a dollar story, though with a key twist for precious metals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------------------------------------------------...
May 17, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1387
Everyone is talking about the Trump-Xi summit as if this is going to be some decisive turning point for China, global trade, maybe even the whole world economy. And, sure, politically, it’s a huge deal. Markets love the idea of the two leaders in the same room because everyone wants to believe a handshake can undo tariffs, trade wars, supply chain chaos, and years of deteriorating relations. But the latest bank lending data out of China says something VERY different. Eurodollar University's Mone...
May 15, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1386
Two of the oldest political parties are in danger of being completely wiped out in the UK. Rate of change in the economy goes down, rate of change in politics goes way up. Both the Labor and Tories are on the ropes right now, especially labor after the latest local election results were a bloodbath for them. An entirely new UK system is right now emerging from the aftermath – but aftermath of what? A huge warning. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------...
May 14, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1385
The stock market was going to boom either way. Payrolls could have been plus 200 or minus 200, indexes were going to soar no matter what. Either the economy is robust or the other would mean the Fed will be forced to cut a lot of rates. But what the jobs data actually showed, no one was looking for. Complete shock yet again. Sure, the payroll number did what the payroll number always does, it was everything else. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ----------------------------...
May 11, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1384
Five major developments in the credit crisis/bust. BlackRock, JP Morgan, Blue Owl, Apollo and another big run on a big fund. Private credit didn't go anywhere, the situation keeps escalating and each one of these represents more significant confirmation of the shift toward toxic waste status. From asset valuations to more losses at big names, the behavior has radically changed. Eurodollar University Money & Macro Analysis Gundlach Warns Investors Will Lose Money on Private Credit https://fin...
May 09, 2026•33 min•Ep. 1383
McDonald’s CEO says the consumer environment is certainly not improving and may be getting a little worse after the company reported better than expected past results. Those mainly before the gas prices jumped. Jumping over to big ticket items like appliances, Whirlpool, the company that employs the Maytag Man, it compared the current consumer climate to – not joking – 2008-09 as the cracks of demand destruction are indeed beginning to grow wider and becoming more noticeable. The Maytag man is s...
May 08, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1382
The stock market was not happy with HSBC. The banking giant reported what should have been a small nothing, a $400mm loss on a loan to an Irish entity with a name that sounds like a Star Wars droid. AGF WHCO 1-A5. But that $400mm loan and loss ended up pulling back the curtain a little more on the current credit crisis. As did the comments from Apollo’s CEO, where he used the words “contagion” and “egregious.” Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -----------------------------------...
May 07, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1381
According to the Energy Information Administration, the national average price for gasoline was $4.26 per gallon at the end of April and it was largely stable throughout last month. Not good. Certainly painful. But wholesale gas price has exploded higher in recent weeks and that means retail gas prices are about to do the same thing. The wholesale cost points to a nationwide pump price of $5. Not next month, soon. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------...
May 06, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1380
We know how central bankers are just itching to raise policy rates and all over the world, led primarily by those in Europe. The hawkishness is already spreading. Just today, an official from South Korea’s central bank said, hey, oil prices up we need to think about some hikes, too. But what are the markets pricing? It’s not what you’d think. What do the curves look like for now but also beyond the near-term? In a word, frown. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------...
May 05, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1379
Will this week’s economic data be enough to keep central bankers from chasing oil prices with rate hikes? Europe was barely positive. Canada bounced back but that’s two up and two down over the last year. Mexico, which, keep in mind, is a proxy for the US, big time contraction. And the US itself missed with weakness all over consumers. All that before the full energy shock weighs in. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Learn more about Augusta Gold and what they have to offer ...
May 04, 2026•24 min•Ep. 1378
Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/8CnCd5q or code euro50 for 50% Off Monarch Core tier. The Japanese government, working through the Bank of Japan, just set $35 billion on fire. Then flushed it down the toilet. And if that wasn’t enough, officials in Tokyo are talking about embarrassing themselves in the oil market. Wasting five and half trillion yen in FX wasn’t enough...
May 03, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1377
We know when Walmart or Dollar General are doing well, those are not good signs for the health of the consumer economy, particularly when it’s higher income shoppers suddenly appearing in bigger numbers. But when that hard hit traffic starts spilling over to the local pawn shops, it’s a whole other level. Canaries and coalmines. Here’s the thing. We’re not only seeing that happen, the data backs this up, including a whole bunch which released earlier today. Eurodollar University's Money & Ma...
May 01, 2026•18 min•Ep. 1376
European banks just told the ECB they are tightening lending standards by the most since 2023. At the same time, the pick up in loan demand they’re seeing is due to heightened liquidity pressures as the energy shock has especially corporate borrowers in Europe on edge. This is why despite knowing the ECB is very likely to raise its policy rates at some point, probably not tomorrow but very likely its next meeting in June, European banks bought a boatload of bonds anyway. Eurodollar University's ...
Apr 30, 2026•19 min•Ep. 1375
A week ago, the UAE said it was in consultation with the US government trying to arrange a dollar swap line. Since then, Treasury Secretary Bessent told Congress MANY allies were, too, and not just those in the Middle East. Just hours ago, huge news as the UAE says it’s outright leaving OPEC. There is big stuff going on behind the scenes because the energy shock is indeed a dollar shock and much bigger than people think, and the chances of becoming uncontained are not trivial. Eurodollar Univers...
Apr 29, 2026•37 min•Ep. 1374
