First Results From VA, Final Minutes Of Voting In NJ

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And we have a live look at Aldi, Virginia, where voters are counting their final ballots in Virginia's high-stakes governor's race. And we are here for it. I'm Aaron Burnett in New York. And I'm Jake Tapper in Washington, D.C. We're just minutes away from polls closing across the river in Virginia.

The outcome of the Commonwealth governor's race could give us the very first gauge of the political headwinds of the night. In Virginia, former Democratic congresswoman Abigail Spamberger and Virginia sitting Lieutenant Governor, Republican Winsom Earl Sears, are both

Let's go to CNN's Jeff Zelani, who's at the Span Burger Campaign headquarters in Richmond, Virginia. Jeff Well Jake Abigail Spanberger is looking to spark a democratic revival here in Virginia. There are just a few more moments uh before the polls close, but for the last two hours. Uh since people have gotten out of work, the campaign has been focusing intently on those suburban voters that are so key to her driving up the turnout in Northern Virginia.

Here in Richmond and in Southeast Virginia as well. The campaign, Jake, is confident. It is as confident as any Democrat that we have talked to for the last year. The question is the margin. In the final hours of this campaign, Abigail Spanberger was talking about wanting to crush victory, look for a decisive victory. The translation to that is Jake, they're looking for a double digit victory. That would be more

uh than the the victory in twenty seventeen that Ralph Northam got. He got about nine percent, of course. That was the year after Donald Trump was elected. We shall see about that margin. But one thing is clear that Democrats believe that Abigail Spanberger, who of course was part of that blue democratic wave back in twenty eighteen, the CIA case officer who ran for office there as Democrats swept to their House majority. They believe that she is the type of Democrat who can win

here in Virginia. But voters also say they have the uh federal government shutdown well on their minds. Of course so key here in the Commonwealth of Virginia. So many uh workers we've talked to, military members we've talked to.

Uh and the Trump effect is also hanging on this race, even though Abigail Spanberg has talked about it very little. And Jake, as you said, history will be made here. Virginia is one of only eighteen states in the whole country that has never elected a woman to be governor that will change tonight. Abigail Spranberger hopes.

She's the one. All right, Jeff Zelani in Richmond. CNN's Eva McKen is in Leesburg, Virginia at the Winsom Earl Sears campaign headquarters. And Eva, you have some new reporting about how the Earl Sears campaigns feels in these closing minutes. Well, Jake, they remain clear-eyed about the difficult environment right now for Republicans in Virginia. But they are standing by how they ran this race. So core to the Lieutenant Governor's election argument.

was leaning into a debate that President Donald Trump very much did in 2024. And that is the policies that govern transgender children in public schools when it comes to bathroom policies, when it comes to sports teams. And in asking them about it, they maintain that it was an important messaging tool, especially to reach non-white voters in Northern Virginia. And when you speak to them, they say that

It wasn't the only issue that they focused on, but a key component of their strategy. Now, as for the lieutenant governor, she never really entertained defeat. She continued campaigning throughout the day, praying with supporters, going to diners. She'll watch the returns tonight, Jake, with her two adult daughters and her husband here in Leesburg.

Jake. All right, polls close in three minutes and fifteen seconds. I want to go to CNN's John King, who is here at the Magic Wall, with me. When the vote starts to come in. From Virginia in literally just minutes. What are you gonna be looking for? Every vote matters of course, but if Winsam Earl Sears is to have a chance in this state. It's going to be right here. That's in Northern Virginia. Those are the Washington, D.C. suburbs.

Uh s anywhere between a third and forty percent of the vote by the time we count'em up is gonna come from the more populated DC suburbs. Now, can it be done? Uh can it be done? Well, Glenn Young can proved uh four years ago it can be done. Now you're looking at these DC suburbs and they're all blue.

Right, they're all blue. That you can win, you can win as a Republican and lose the suburbs, but you have to get closer. Look at Prince William County. He's at forty two percent in Prince William County. This county is very important to me tonight for a couple of reasons. Number one It's one of the farther out suburbs. Number two, it has the highest percentage of Latino voters.

in Virginia by county. Who are tr who are trending to the President? Who have moved to move toward Trump, trending toward conservatives. Can she sell that message here? But look at Young at forty two percent. Now come back to the presidential race in twenty twenty. Donald Trump lost Virginia in twenty twenty and twenty twenty four. But look In 2020, Trump gets 36 if you round that up.

And then in twenty four, Donald Trump's number goes up to thirty nine. Trump's support among Latinos, especially among Latino men is growing. It was not enough in Virginia. Not in twenty twenty four. You know, Harris still won. But But she wins by five or six if you round that up.

When Joe Biden won, if you go back here, he won by ten. So there is a trend in Virginia, especially among men of color, like we've seen nationally, like will matter a lot in the next midterm elections next year, by the way. So you're looking at these states tonight. Oh Virginia, is it a blue state or a purple state? New York, New Jersey, a lot of the countries probably saying why do I care? Not like my state.

The the voters tonight in these key places are the same kind of voters they're gonna settle the battle for control of the House. They're gonna settle the big governors races on the ballot in the midterm election year. They're gonna settle whether Donald Trump has a democratic speaker for the last two years of his term. So as you watch this come out right up in here and then you come here, Fairfax is the number one. It's the most populous county in the state. And again, this here

Glenn Youngin, we were talking about this off camera. Glenn Younckin talked a lot about education, giving parents more say over school committees, more say over local politicians, right? Winsom Sears has done the same thing, but her tone has been very different. Her tone has been more harsh, it has been more Trumpy. So this is the largest.

county in the state. It is a huge DC suburb. And again, Glenn Youngin got he lost, right? Thirty-five percent of the vote if you round that up. He only got thirty five percent of the vote. But remember, in elections that are settled by such close margins,

Sometimes your margin, even where you lose, matters. When some Seers like Len Youncin has to perform in the 40s, in the high 30s, in the DC suburbs to have any chance because that's where the people live. And then Jake, another big question tonight is this. You have all these other Republican candidates who are trying to run like Donald Trump.

Remember what Donald Trump does in rural America, right? Can they not only win those counties with the percentages that they need, but can they get voters to come out of the woodwork in rural America, including rural Virginia, like Donald Trump does? Well fascinating stuff. And voting is about to end in the first big race of the night. The Commonwealth of Virginia and the Governor's race. Will Democrats win back the Commonwealth's governor's mansion?

Or will Republicans buck history and hang on to it? We have a key race alert for you now. And it is too early to call. The polls just closed, so we do not know exactly what to make of things. But David Challion has some new exit polls looking at how key uh It could indeed, Jake. Take a look here among female voters in Virginia. Now that polls have closed, we can show you that Spanberger is walloping Earl Sears among female voters in the U.S. She's getting 61%.

Voters according to these preliminary exit polls and these numbers can shift as the night goes on and we get more information from voters. Earl Sears only getting 37% of female voters. Uh this is a much wider margin than McCullop had over Yunkin four years ago with female voters.

voters, independent voters. Yunkin won independent voters by nine points four years ago. Look at this. Spamberger is winning independent voters by 15 percentage points. And they make up a third of the electorate in Virginia. Critical voting block. Suburban voters, you were just talking about.

About those critical Northern Virginia suburbs. 57% of the electorate comes from the suburbs. Spamberger's winning them by 13 points, 56 to 43. Again, Yunkin was winning them by seven four years ago. And the Split among federal worker households. This is critical with With the shutdown, real impact, 22% of the electorate comes from federal worker households. Spamberger, 61%, to Earl Sears, 37%. Jake. Dan Navash, if I'm with the Spamberger headquarters, I'm like

All right. Yeah, I mean just looking at the yeah. At the last one, sixty one percent of federal workers say they are voting for Spamberger. Um as John was saying, it's what like a hundred and fifty thousand federal workers in Virginia. But we're in the middle of a shutdown. And People have not gotten paychecks in a month. And they're going to vote.

What do you expect them to be doing? I I talked uh earlier to a Republican who has done a ton of work for decades in Virginia who said you cannot express in a more profound way how much shutdowns Hurt Republicans. No matter what happens, hurt Republicans.

when Virginians go to vote during a shutdown. It's just the historical trend. I think it's also worth pointing out, Jake, that Abigail Spanberger did not draw the strongest Republican candidate that we have ever seen run for governor in Virginia and strength of candidate

really matters here. I mean this was to the point that President Trump didn't even endorse uh here uh in this race, even though it's right in his backyard, right? So I think Spanberger benefited from being a strong candidate herself, but also in facing someone who doesn't have the typical strength that you see here.

Well, I I have a lot of thoughts on everything though you just said. Well but let me let's go back to the the the issue about the government shutdown. Um historically Republicans have been the ones that have caused the shutdowns. Right. I mean they're the ones and I I'm only specifically talking about whether or not they vote.

Yes or no. Fund the government when it goes to the House, when it goes to the Senate. Democrats are the ones that are not voting to fund the government. Now, I understand why they're doing so. They're doing so because of health care and they want to fight and they want Republicans to negotiate, et cetera, et cetera. The messaging by Democrats.

around this shutdown has been sharper than I've than I've seen Democrats on any issue in a long time. They have convinced voters, Democratic voters and independent voters, that it's the Republicans' fault. Um and Just on the numbers that might not be actually accurate. In terms of who's voting to open the government and who isn't. Again, why they're doing it. They're doing it because of health care policy and some really big issues that voters have. But I'm just it's just interesting to me.

What tends to happen is pox on all their houses. But again, if you are a voter and you haven't gotten a paycheck and you understand that maybe it is the Democrats'cause people who are very savvy about everything you just talked about who aren't voting yes, you're still angry at the incumbent party.

And the incumbent party is the guy in the White House. And also you're angry at the incumbent party bringing in Elon Musk and the Department of Government efficiency and dope. That's the underlying part here. Cut, cut, cut the federal workforce, and I'm guessing federal workers generally speaking, think that the Democratic Party is fighting for them while Republicans

are f fighting to reduce the size of government. I I wo look I would say this is a little bit of anecdot, but obviously these federal workers in the DMV area are our friends and neighbors. And for many of them there is a sense and we're seeing this also in polling that they want people to fight for them. So even if it is that democrats are the ones that are preventing the government from reopening right now.

They are seeing that Democrats are fighting, right? And that has been the demand. That has been the pressure that has caused Democrats. to as you point out, you know, essentially abandon the argument they've been making for the last couple of decades, which is that you don't shut the government down over a policy dispute, right? I mean Democrats always said that. But in this case, you know, it may be th this perception of fight.

might be more important. Yeah. All right. Let's hand it over to CNN's Aaron Burnett, New York. Aaron. All right, Jake, thank you very much. And all right, so Rom, when you look through

The uh as we're we're getting these numbers in as Jake said, Okay, those numbers are pretty stunning when you look at the state of Virginia. What do you see there when you see the suburban breakdown, when you see the federal workers breakdown?

It goes on and on. Look, there's two things that are coming out of this election that's going to tell you a lot about a year from now. Because it's one year after the president won, and obviously the midterm. One is around message. Affordability and opportunity are the central message Democrats, and that's gonna win that's winning. The second is the construct of the electorate. In a in an off-year election when one party controls both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, there's a law of physics.

Right now Democratic turnout is exceeding Republican turnout by significant margin. And independents are breaking kind of fifty-seven forty-three, fi fifty-six, forty-one. That number tells you in swing districts that will determine the h majority in the House where the electorate is. And so if that sets and you gotta see it, California, New Jersey, Virginia. Etcetera. If it's bec in Pennsylvania, if it becomes a pattern Then you have the constructs of what is going to make up

And explain why the president's trying to redistrict his way out of a verdict by the American people. Congressman Malatakis, obviously you know New York, uh and uh also nationally though looking at it as a congressperson. When you see these results from Virginia and those polls are closed, we could get this any second here.

Uh but obviously the breakdown here when even when you look at independence. Right, fifty six percent of the independence exit polls are saying that they went for the Democrat Abigail Spanberger, only forty one percent for Winsome um Earl Sears. What what does that say to you? Is that sort of a a ding red light?

Look, I I think it's uh honestly I think it's a personality, right? I think that you had Glenn Youncin who was a very personal person. He came in at a interesting time where people were very upset about the education system in Virginia.

I think that Winsom Sears is just simply a a different type of candidate that maybe didn't have that same type of personal connection with the uh voters. And I know Abigail Spanberger and quite frankly she's a moderate Democrat. She's not somebody who's extreme to to the left or Like something like we may be electing tonight in New York City. Um and I think that she probably

had a better connection. What I am surprised about is this fact that you know somebody like Ab Abigail Spanberger or you saw the New Jersey candidate Mikey Sherrill, these are two individuals that actually voted to shut down the government and yet that didn't seem to have an impact, at least in Virginia. Uh so we'll we'll see how the numbers come in, but uh I think the other the other thing you gotta consider

is that you have a lot of federal employees who live in Virginia. Yeah. They are impacting. So hold on, hold on one second. I just want to go to Brian Todd since the polls are closed in Virginia. He's in Audi, obviously at swing swing center of a swing county. Uh Brian, what are the latest numbers here that we're getting?

Okay, so Aaron, the these are this is where the numbers are actually being tabulated in real time as we speak. The all the uh votes that were entered by uh paper ballot. K are now being uh ke have now come out on these pieces of tape that were signed by bipartisan election officials. That that these numbers on these pieces of tape will now be entered into an electronic tablet.

And Belinda Matingu, the chief of the precinct, the lady in blue here, she's gonna take these numbers, enter them into an electronic tablet that she's booting up right now. This is called a communication tablet. She's doing that. She's starting to enter these numbers. Okay.

They will send the numbers, the actual vote tally from this electronic tablet to the central office in Leesburg, Virginia, that is the elect election board office of Loudoun County. So you're seeing this in real time. What's really cool about this, Aaron, is that

In years past we have not gotten access to this room. We couldn't show voters voting in real time because they had to keep us they just wanted to keep us outside the room. Today we've had amazing access. We've been we've been able to show the voters coming in, checking in all day. casting their ballots, entering um these ballots that look like this into a uh a counter which is behind us, right? And then the at as soon as the polls closed just minutes ago

The counter put out these three pieces of tape and these have the the all the numbers from this precinct today where they have had more than a thousand voters come in. So they're You're just watch this it's just great to be able to watch this in real time. They're about to enter these numbers into the tablet, send the numbers from this precinct back to the central voting office in Loudoun County.

All right, Brian, and and as we get those coming in, we're gonna be bringing everyone those final numbers. We just have those exit polls right now. I will just say, Ken Kutchinelli, obviously you've run for Virginia, you uh uh governor in Virginia and you know politics there uh better than anyone. I just say as an American it's great to see this process and to see more transparency as you want to build confidence.

But when you look there at Aldi and Loudoun County, two names that mean a lot to you, what do you see so far coming out of this? And obviously we Uh w votes will come in pretty quickly from a lot of parts of Virginia. W while I don't like forty-five days of open voting, um I think we could survive with two weeks. We have have had that.

We crossed the million voter threshold maybe in the third or fourth week of October and you'll see maybe two and a half million roughly uh voting tonight. Well, in the c total for the election. Um and those Tab tabs you see there aren't the official ballots in case anybody's freaking out about that.

Those are tabulations of the official ballots that went through counters and now they're gonna enter'em into an also unofficial tablet to to get'em so, you know, but the transparency point you made and that your reporter made. Right on the money. I think every American should be able to see how this system works. Up close and personal, everything except how your neighbors mark their ballots. We should be able to see it all.

And and in terms of the breakdown, I know I'm gonna get back to you, Ron, but I know you also were talking about the breakdown. I think people are not looking at the government shutdown and its length specifically and saying this is the chapter I am mad at. There for months this has been going on, right? Between Doge

and these other cuts. If you look at the community of black women, three hundred thousand black women are pushed out of the workforce in the last couple of months. I'm sorry to interrupt, I just want to get to Jake because we do have a key race alert. Jake. We do indeed a key race alert right now. And we have some actual votes coming in from the Commonwealth of Virginia. Abigail Spamberger, the Democrat, with 5,722 votes. That's 64.7% of the vote. The Republican Winsome Earl Sears, 35.2%.

percent of the vote. Uh Spamberger is two thousand six hundred and nine votes ahead. Uh obviously just a fraction of the votes have come in uh from the Commonwealth of Virginia. Uh but they are votes and let's see where they're coming from. John King uh Enlighten us. Where are these votes coming in? For Spamberger and Captain. They do have the early voting. They do tend to move this pretty quickly. So as we're having the conversation, you just saw some right here.

Richmond, the first votes in Richmond, let's just bring them up. Uh this is obviously this is the capital of Virginia. Uh it's a big democratic town. She needs to run up the score. It's only one percent, so let's be careful. Let's not jump anywhere yet. But this is the this is the great part of democracy. We start to count votes here. She's at seventy six percent. Let's go back here. Terry McCall lost.

Terry McCullough lost this race in 2021. He got 77% at the end of the night. You know, so that's one of the things. One of the things we do is look at the last race. The Republican won. So how did it happen? We reconstructed. So well watch this. It's 1%, so we don't know where it's going. But you come back out. In 133 counties across the great Commonwealth of Virginia, these are very small, not what we've seen so far, not very populous.

This is eighty-ninth, Buckingham County. It is a hundred and thirty-three. It's eighty-ninth in terms of population. So it's pretty far down. You know, you're looking at fifty-four percent. And again, just as we start our conversation tonight, we go through our comparison. The current governor, Glenn Youncan, is a Republican.

He got 63%. So this is one of the things you're going to watch. Okay, that's not a final number. It's the first votes in. So that's don't say, oh, she's underperforming Glenn Youngin. We don't know that yet. But one of the things we'll watch as the night goes on. is he got sixty three percent. You know, she's right now at fifty five. One of the things Abigail Sperrenberger did try to do

is to get out more into rural Virginia, where Trump and Republicans in the last twenty five years, even pre-Trump, Republicans have been doing better. Trump has put that on steroids to his credit uh and getting support in rural America. She did.

Try to go back to some of these small communities where people work with their hands who used to vote democratic when you and I started doing this way back in the day. Uh they don't anymore. So let's see if that plays out. This is you know, it's about thirty three percent of the vote. We'll see if that holds on. But we talked a lot about can Earl Sears Match. G Governor Yunkin in the suburbs.

Another question is can Abigail Spamberger prove that Democrats can do better? Even if you're losing in close elections, doing better, it matters. So we'll look at these rural areas as they come in. These are all very small towns.

Bland County is one hundred and twenty seventh in terms of population of the hundred and thirty three counties in the state of Virginia. That's what she needs to do though. Any Republican, any small rural counties, Needs to run it up. We'll see if that holds. And then just one, you see a very tiny blue dot right here. This is actually a decent sized Virginia community. Lynchburg.

Third, top qu above that in the things. She's getting seventy-five percent of the vote. And again, just for comparison, you go back. Uh Glenn Youncin carried Lynchburg in twenty twenty one. So we'll watch this. Again, this is preliminary boat. Uh to Ken Cuccinelli's point, the first votes that are counted or released are often the early votes.

Democrats do tend to vote more early uh than Republicans. That's changing. It's changing a little bit, but over here we've seen in the last few elections Democrats tend to do it a little bit more. So we'll see if that holds up. If it does, that bodes very well for the Democratic candidate. But you're watching, this is what we're looking for mostly. You know, more again, thirty to forty percent of the population of Virginia, the votes will come in up here. We don't have those yet.

Nice to see votes. Nice to have an election night. All right, John. We're watching closely the Commonwealth of Virginia as these first votes come in as we await poll closing in our other big races of the night. The governor's race in New Jersey and for mayor in New York City. We're gonna squeeze in a quick break. We'll be right back. Tab I got news for your ears. The podcast. I am your host, Michael Ian Black. Here's uh your favorite. Uh

I got the horse right here, Zames. You see this thirty-one point shift to the left, right? If this were just one election, that would be one thing. I like a Sammy David. He does the rat pack, he does everything. He's incredible. Anybody deserves a residency in Vegas? It's this he does impressions, he does songs, he dances, he probably plays the drums like Sammy. He probably does everything.

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And we have another key race alert for you out of the Commonwealth of Virginia where polls have closed. Uh if you looked at the board here, the Democrat Abigail Spamberger is leading with 56.3% of the vote. The Republican Winsom Earl Sears has 43. 3.5% of the vote. Spamberger is in the lead with roughly 7,800 votes. That's with only 2% of the estimated vote in. But as of right now, with many, many more votes to count, Spamberger is in the lead. CNN's Caitlin Convention.

Collins is at the White House for us right now. And Kaylin, you're learning some new details about President Trump's endorsement of Andrew Cuomo for mayor in New York City. Yeah, Jake, that is certainly the race that the president has been paying the most attention to as we have been leading up to this day here. And actually, his endorsement.

of Andrew Cuomo yesterday is something that I was told had actually been weeks in the making. The President had been tiptoeing around it in his public comments and he had made quite clear that he did not want Zoran Mamdani to be the next mayor of his former hometown of New York City. But Jake, behind the scenes, some people had said that one, maybe the president shouldn't endorse Andrew Cuomo outright because they thought it would actually hurt his bid to defeat mom Donnie and actually helped

uh Zaron Mamdani in this race. And others Jake had reminded him of their dueling appearances they they used to have back during the COVID nineteen pandemic when Trump was here at the White House and Andrew Cuomo of course was the governor. of New York a and often he would come out on on camera, respond to things that the president had said, his own briefings.

They have a long history that dates back way before that, back to the time when they were both in New York City, Jake. But none of that stopped the president from coming out outright yesterday. He had his aides draft that post that went up on Truth Social yesterday evening outright endorsing

Andrew Cuomo in this race. And one thing that people have suggested here, Jake, is that maybe the president is playing, you know, some kind of three D chess here, that he actually does want Zoran Mamdani to win the New York City Mayor's race because he'll pro prove to be a good foil

for him and for Republicans and certainly we've seen Republicans try to to use that and to invoke him from Capitol Hill during the shutdown. But that is not the case here, Jake. The president genuinely does not want Zoran Mamdani to win this race. Which is why he has been so outspoken about this leading up to tonight.

All right, Kaylin Collins, thanks so much. Let's hand things over back to Aaron Burnett in New York. Aaron. All right, Jake, and we're sitting here as we're awaiting the formal announcements Virginia of winner loser, uh for both governor as well as attorney general. Going through some of the numbers and there is a lot to see here. Audie, you're specifically looking at just in these exit polls.

And one of the things that is is is sort of obvious, but let's just say it very clearly. You had a woman running against a woman in Virginia.

So you can look at the the female vote in a unique way there. Yeah, and I think that uh what I'm interested in is is animating issue. When you think about young and uh performing well with women and we think about that whole uh sort of school board issue and uh how that was helpful Uh whereas now you have Spamberger who's able to make a lot of progress on not just the government shutdown, but Doge cuts.

These have had severe ripple effects through the Virginia economy because it's not just the workers themselves, it's the contractors, it's their communities. And so people are feeling it in a way that maybe people in other states are not. And Ken, when we're looking at what do we read into the acid polls so far, which seem to be very good for Spanberger, but when uh

John King was looking specifically at Buckingham County. And you were saying, Okay, I know it's early, I know there's only some numbers in from there, but something stands out to you there. Yeah, uh Winsome wasn't getting she was winning Buckingham County, but she was not Um and it is early it is early numbers. We were, you know, in the in the upper hundreds if I remember the numbers correctly.

But that's not gonna be enough. She needs to spread those margins in rural Virginia to to to win. And then Ron, what you're looking at is the underperformance of of Earl Sears versus Glen Yunkin when he was. Not both underperformance or Spamberger's overperformance, but take just one fact. Governor Yunkin won independence by seven.

Spam burgers are winning by fifteen. That's a twenty-two-point swing. When you go through control of the House, that's gonna be where a preponderance of independence and uh unaffiliated voters in these unaffiliated swing districts. That is the most important measure. Energy among Democrats, how independent is breaking. They're breaking now to tell you that 2026 is b in the outlines a year to go.

Predominantly got wind at the back for Democrats. Doesn't mean that's how it plays out. But you're if New Jersey you get that same kind of swing among independent Go pr by 15 points for Democrats, that's gonna tell you a lot. Everything for midterms. Now, okay, we've been talking about the top issues and you see it for exit polls in Virginia where you've got polls closed and in New Jersey. Clearly it's economic issues, not social issues.

And yet there was an exit poll question uh in Virginia about trans rights. Okay? Uh and fifty-two percent of Virginians in the exit polls said they believe trans rights, however that is defined by an individual answering the question, have gone too far. Seventy-eight percent of the people who said that voted for Earl Sears, as you would expect. Um but does that say that cultural issues Still have less. I think it does not. I I think what we're seeing here, this is the ultimate confirmation.

That people are voting on the economy because they are struggling so deeply. And we have to remember this started before COVID, the Great Recession. had a huge lingering impact. Then COVID put everyone back on their heels. Literally every family across the country was affected. And we're still feeling the effects. So what's happening here is with the economy being the leading issue,

The incumbent in the White House has not been able to produce. Donald Trump said he would affect he would do something about inflation. It's been the other way around. People are hurting more. And so he can't. He can't go out and campaign in these states. He can't go out and campaign because he hasn't been able to fulfill his basic promise.

And the Trump also um here's an amazing thing, Aaron. Trump uh White House did not mount an effort to speak of in New Jersey and he endorsed in New York, he's probably gonna lose badly because of that and I mean with that endorsement. Something's wrong when you're an incumbent president and you're getting killed in the first election that's a referendum on your administration. On the cultural issue, I would say on the economics bills, right, I would just say this.

There's a difference between Kamel Harris and Spattenberg, uh uh Abigail Spattenberg in the sense of that attack working. I wouldn't say their cultural issues are totally gone. They haven't lost their potency, but Abigail shows that that does not work with her. She has a shield, and that's her background.

Profile. We're we're all we're all here and we are just over thirty minutes away from polls closing in New Jersey. We'll get more. And when we come back, Democratic Senator Corey Booker, of course, of New Jersey will join us live. This week on the assignment with me, Audie Cornish. The winter fashion week season is underway. There were shows in Milan.

That you can't buy your way into. Like you actually can, as it turns out, because Jeff Bezos and his wife Lauren Sanchez, they've literally been ushered to the front rows in recent weeks. Talking with CNN's Rachel Tajan. I cover fashion and style. Someone actually said that they thought Sanchez, who apparently is friends with the Kardashians, is actually pulling directly from that playbook of like how to reinvent your image and in a way upgrade it.

into this fashion status. That was actually in my piece that I wrote. Oh wait, what? Let me check my notes! Listen to the assignment.

And we're back with another key race alert for you. And yes, it is still in the Commonwealth of Virginia in the governor's race. Abigail Spanberger, the Democrat, is leading with 56% of the vote. The Republican Winsom Earl Sears has 43.8% of the vote.

Spamberger is leading by more than forty-one thousand votes with an estimated ten percent of the vote in. But I want to bring your attention to the attorney general's race, because this is really interesting. As you may or may not know, there was a controversy involving the Democrats.

Jay Jones involving some rather violent text messages he sent several years ago. It's really rocked the entire Virginia race. And if you look here, the incumbent Republican Attorney General, Jason Miaras, is right now with only six percent. Six percent of the vote in. He's right now in the league.

with 52.1% of the vote. Jay Jones, the Democrat, has 47.5% of the vote. That means that Spamberger is, well right now, uh oh, look at that. Jay Jones just jumped ahead. Jay Jones has now 50% of the vote. The vote, 50.7% of the vote. Jason Miaris, 49% of the vote. In any case, what's interesting is that Jay Jones is roughly five points b uh behind Abigail Spamberger. So however well

Spamberger does it does seem as though uh Jay Jones is trailing her by five percentage points. And the question I guess is, will she bring him up enough? uh that like if she wins by Eight points, eleven points. She could be pulling Jay Jones with her past the finish line, but if she only ekes it out by like four points, that might be not enough for Jay Jones. It's it's a fascinating question as you watch it play out. And again

the conversation we're having with about eleven percent of the vote in statewide or commonwealth wide could be a very different conversation when we're later in the night when we have sixty, seventy percent and more, which is when it matters most. But this is what we're gonna watch because it's a fascinating question.

You have a candidate who appears to be on her way to a victory. We're not there yet, but based on the exit polling and based on what I'll show you in just a second, putting up the votes where she needs to put up the votes, and then you have a candidate mired in a controversy scandal, call it what you will, can she pull him along or is the

Suburban counties outside of Washington become increasingly blue. That's where Brian Todd is in Aldi, near here. She's getting sixty-three percent of the vote. About seventy-five percent of the vote they say in right now. That can fluctuate a little bit. Sometimes you get early votes and the number changes, but that's a good size vote. The Democratic candidate for governor is getting 63 percent if you round that up.

The Democratic candidate for Attorney General is getting 57%. A healthy win, but way below her. Well below it. Five or six points. Five or six points down. So that's Loudoun County. Then you come back out here, let's just pick another one. Let's come down, let's come down to Norfolk.

A very important place for Democrats to turn out their vote, an African-American base for the Democrats in Norfolk City. Jay Jones, that looks great. It's 25% of the vote. He's getting 73% if you round that up. But let's come to the governor's race and look at that. Abigail Sperrenberger getting seventy six percent beyond that. It's a smaller, it's only three. It's only three or four there. But it you know, does this matter in the end? It's a key question. Is he right now is underperforming?

her at the top of the ticket, the question by the end of the night is is it enough as you go through. So let's just come back out. Obviously the governor's race, the votes are coming in pretty quick. We're up to twelve percent now statewide. Uh 55 to 45, 10 points if you round her Abigail Spanbergers up. We're still waiting for Fairfax. Fairfax County is the most populous county in the state. You learn a lot when you get to Fairfax, but an early surprise. We'll see if it stays this way.

is Prince William County. Again though, only one percent of the vote, right? So we're watching this right now. If this stays red When we get into double digits and higher for this county, then you've got an interesting race. Because if you look at it as you come on in here, just you just got some more oh, we got Fairfax. So let's just stop and go to Fairfax. Okay.

Fairfax just reported that's a huge slice of the vote. That's early voting. So they have those tabulations, they count them, they're done now, they've confirmed their count, and they put them out. So last race was won by a Republican. So Abigail Spanberger, the Democrat, at 73. Let's just go back and look.

Terry McCullough got sixty-five in losing. Uh-huh. So this year's candidate is running well ahead of the Democrat who lost this race four years ago in the most populous county in the state, which happens to be a key test of suburban voters that we can take. Where in twenty eighteen, for example, we saw the revolt against Donald Trump.

uh in the suburbs, places like that. So let's come back to where we are today. Uh up to 17 percent now during this conversation, the votes are coming in. So I'm going to keep an eye on Prince William, which is still red. And then let's just go out, we talked earlier about these some of these rural counties. This is right along the West Virginia border, right?

Forty percent of the vote in. The Republican candidate, 78%. That's a big healthy number in Bath County. I just want to go back in time. 78% for the Republican candidate now. Seventy nine percent. So that's about matching, right? So this is what you're gonna look at. So out in this rural kind of the question in the end will also become turnout, right? Fifteen hundred votes for Glenn Young and then fifteen hundred and change. So, yeah.

Her percentage is good. The question is does she get the overall turnout in these rural counties? Let's just pick another one to look at it.

East Brunswick, uh, New Jersey. He has uh the senior senator from New Jersey, a guy I've known since he was a city councilman, uh Corey Booker. Uh John, it's all yours. All right. That's right, Jake. I am here with the Senior Center from the state of New Jersey.

Corey Booker, nice to see you, Senator. It's great to see you on an exciting night. And of course you were the former mayor of Newark, New Jersey, and the Cheryl campaign is pointing out the fact that turnout has already exceeded 2021 levels. in many urban centers, Newark, um in Jersey City, in Elizabeth, in Union City. What does that tell you? It tells me the energy, the excitement is with the Democrats.

And really it's even bigger than that. I think all around New Jersey people are hurting right now. And this is their first opportunity not only to speak to Mikey Sherrow's qualifications but to speak against what Donald Trump is doing to our state where he's wildly unpopular. All right. The way you talked about that is interesting for Democrats in terms of what lessons may be learned from this campaign because Mikey Sherrill's out on the trail talking about Donald Trump.

But largely she does it in terms of the economy and affordability. What do you take from that? Well that's exactly what I heard crisscrossing the state. And one guy, Chidrelli, said I'm a hundred percent MAGA, which is almost an insult to a lot of the people that are struggling in this presidency. And Mikey Sherrill says I'm going to stand up to him and fight for Jersey and to fight to lower these costs.

How is that different materially than say a no kings rally and saying Donald Trump threat to democracy? Because that does feel like a subtly different message. Look, there there's a base uh uh voters in New Jersey that is worried about a lot of things. We're seeing masked agents come out of unmarked cars and drag people away from schools and churches and and the like. So there's a lot of things.

a president that seems unrestrained by the Constitution, who's frozen so many millions and millions of dollars worth of grants to New Jersey. So all of those things are out there. But number one, first and foremost, New Jerseyans are upset. the cost of living is skyrocketing under a president who promised to do something differently. He seems to be targeting New Jersey, our jobs and more.

And Chodarelli seems to be in line with him and Mikey Sarrell says I'm gonna be in line with New Jersey. So you famously spoke for twenty five hours. I'm not selling you short. Twenty five hours on the Senate floor? Yes, sir. All right. You talked about a time of crisis in this country.

Again, what might you take from this election going forward back to the Senate when you head back there tomorrow? There's a government shutdown going on. Might that come to an end soon? Yeah, look, I'm gonna tell you right now, I think Republican Congress people should be watching these races all across America. where Democrats are going to do well because Donald Trump, I I he is corrupt, he is chaotic, he's cruel, but now we see for the Republican Party, he's cancerous.

a lot of folks are gonna start seeing that tying their their stars, hitching to his his his candidacy, his his uh a brand is gonna hurt them. So I think you might see some Republicans waking up and saying, wait a minute, I should be more afraid of the people than I am of Donald Trump and start standing up to lower health care costs, to work with Democrats, to come together and negotiate with us.

to do something to lower costs for Americans. Senator Corey Booker, the senior senator from New Jersey, we do appreciate your time tonight. Thanks very much. Thank you very much

All right, Jake. John Berman, thank you so much. And John King, let's look at the garden state of New Jersey. What are you going to be looking for uh when the votes uh come in in twenty minutes? Yeah, twenty minutes or so, nineteen minutes of bonus stuff.

So again, uh this is a blue state. So a lot of Republicans around the country say, so what if the Democrat wins? Well, it's a blue state where Donald Trump did a lot better in 2024 than he did in 2020. Republicans were saying we're making progress. The question is, now that Trump is back in the White House, does that progress continue?

Or do voters decide, never mind, and go the other way. So you just saw the conversation there. You know, so you start here in Hudson County, which is just across. This is Jersey City. This is Manhattan right here. So you're just across. This is a suburb of New York in many ways. Uh and and so Democrats this morning were nervous about turnout. Tonight they feel a lot better about it. They think their voters came out.

uh here. Then you move over here to Essex County, which is third in population. That's Newark. That's where Cory Booker was mayor. Again, big democratic base right there, but a place where Donald Trump did a little better. Last time. Democrats this morning a little nervous would their voters come out. They say their voters are coming out, and they say, and we'll see in 18 minutes or so if they're correct, they say that they have managed it's an off year.

It's not a presidential year. It's hard to get people who vote for president but maybe don't vote other times to come out. Democrats say they did a better job than Republicans in turning out what we call low propensity voters. We will see it. Pretty soon. And then just one last place I would say we're going to look at a lot tonight is Paseia County. This is where Donald Trump flipped it.

Donald Trump in twenty twenty won this county after lo uh in twenty twenty four, excuse me, after losing it in in twenty twenty. Why? This is a plural plurality Latino, about 43, 44% Latino County, and Donald Trump flipped it in the thing. So what happens in the governor's race? Again. Flipped it in part.

Because of high costs and inflation. Said Joe Biden and Kamala Harris weren't the answer. Well costs are still high. The question is do these voters stick with Trump and Republicans thinking give them more time, or do they say, no, now you're in charge, your party's in charge, and we're mad. So it's a fascinating thing to watch as we go forward. Again, a blue state, but

An incumbent a l peop when people are mad yeah and people are mad right now, sometimes they just kick the guys in power. That would be the Democrats in New Jersey. So being able to hold on, especially after the race was closer last time

would be an achievement but we'll see. And again We're looking at this for tonight, but then we're also looking at this for, okay, what did the voters in New Jersey do and in Virginia do, and where do voters like them live in the key midterm battlegrounds, when the House will be at stake and so such on and so forth and so

We're waiting on New Jersey and I just wanted to check we're up to twenty two percent on the other big governors' race. That's the Commonwealth of Virginia. Spamberger is really in the lead now. But and remember earlier I said we'll keep an eye on Prince William County. It was red last time we checked. Again, that was at one or two percent. Now we're up to eleven percent, but that's a giant flip right there. Again, this is a Washington D C right here. Yeah. Very liberal right over the border.

Blue suburbs, not twenty-five years ago, but they are now. And as you move farther away, think about driving out of any urban area. First you see the suburbs, then all of a sudden there are a lot of fields, maybe you're still a couple of farms. That's where you see this the big box stores. That is what Press William County is out here as you go. And a lot of in in Virginia right now, it's going to be a big issue for years to come. Data centers.

Yeah, well, because they suck up a lot of energy and a lot of water. I want to check in uh on uh our other big race of the night, of course, in uh New York. Uh the mayor's race. CNN's Abby Phillips. Uh is at Mamdani headquarters at the Paramount Theater in Brooklyn, New York. Uh Abby, uh I I'm guessing that the sentiment there is fairly positive.

Uh i it is, Jake. I mean they are feeling pretty confident going into this, but just like John King is doing at the Magic Wall, uh the Mamdani aides are also looking very closely at the maps here in New York. Uh they're particularly looking at the geography that we are actually in right now in Brooklyn. Brooklyn is uh an important place for the campaign. It's become an important political center for New York City.

And my colleague Gloria Pasmina is here with me now and she's got some reporting about what else is significant about Brooklyn Gloria. Uh this is a part of the city that has a lot of black voters in particular and it was a place where Cuomo showed strength. What are the Mamdani uh aides looking for tonight? Yeah, this is not Mamdani's uh district. He represented Queens in the state assembly but

Mamdani's campaign views Brooklyn as a very much Mamdani country. The reason for that is because the electorate in Brooklyn has changed so significantly over the last few years. So they're watching Brooklyn closely because The turnout has been so significantly high. More than four hundred thousand people in Brooklyn alone have voted. Uh in the Mamvani campaign thinks that that is only

Good news for them. Now there are parts of Brooklyn, as you said, where Andrew Cuomo, the former governor, actually performed pretty well during the primary, and part of the reason for that is because his historical base, Black New Yorkers,

came out and supported him. But in the last few months the Mamdani campaign has been doing a lot of work to try and drive up those numbers, reaching out to those communities to try and close that gap between the two of them. This will be an important test for Mamdani because

Uh one of the knocks on him coming out of the primary was that it it was younger voters, even actually more affluent voters. You saw Upper East Side and Upper West Side where wealthier voters are overrepresented in his support, can he appeal to more conservative black voters who uh f frankly might have been a little bit uncertain about whether he had the qualifications.

to be the mayor of this city. And one of the things tonight, as they are as confident as they are, uh it's a debate raging inside the campaign about whether or not he needs to have a mandate and what would a mandate look like here in New York, Lori. Absolutely I think that there's two really important points there and that the first one that you made is the significance of the black vote here in New York City. Never before had a primary mayoral candidate won an election without

secure in the entirety of the city's black vote. That is just a huge um sort of uh change in how people are voting in New York City and it says a lot about what New York City looks like in these past few years. We know that black families, black people, black New Yorkers have left New York City in droves in the last few years. In terms of that fifty percent, they want to cross that threshold. There's a few aides inside the Montani campaign who are focused.

on making sure that they can cross because they think that will give them a strong mandate and a solid win. But there are others who just want to win. They just want to be able to say they got a win tonight. And and Jake of course there is uh right now incredible amount of interest in this race and turnout is very high. We're not quite at historic levels, but it is certainly trending as if it could be.

Uh a little bit more time for New Yorkers to go to a vote and we'll keep you updated as that goes on. That sounds great. Gloria and Abby Phillip. We're in the final countdown to poll's closing in the Garden State of New Jersey. Will the Democrats hold on to the governorship? Will Republicans get their first big win of the night? Plus, we're looking at the race to leave New York, New York, and California's push to redistrict. Stay with CNN. We'll be right back.

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