Conal Scanlon on Monte Carlo Mapping
Dec 19, 2017•17 min
Episode description
This is the Engineering Culture Podcast, from the people behind InfoQ.com and the QCon conferences.
In this podcast Shane Hastie, Lead Editor for Culture & Methods, spoke to Conal Scanlon about his talk at QCon New York on Monte Carlo Simulation for forecasting feature development
Why listen to this podcast:
• Knowledge work is inherently variable, and estimates are inevitably incorrect
• Monte Carlo simulation projects likely completion based on past history rather than future guesses
• A small set of real data points is extrapolated to 1000 samples and that is used to produce a probability curve
• A forecast is a point in time situation – as teams get better at delivery their predictability should improve
• Everything in the delivery process should be subject to change as it is continuously improved
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