I suspect that the long term bad for JERUMP consumed right robots is an excess of twenty billion units. So we're ramping out production in our US factory as well as building our building megaback factory in China that's such a roughly double hour output, maybe troubled potentially inclusion.
We're super excited about the progress across the board.
I recommend anyone who doesn't believe that says the will soult bigle autonomy should not hold test the stop. They should sell a TESTA stop you should believe will solve autonomy.
You should buy test to stop.
Enabling the fleet to operate like the Giant Autonomous fleet, and it takes evaluation, I think to some pretty crazy number of ARC invest thinks on the order of five trillion dollars. I think they're probably not wrong, and long term optimists, I think IS achieves evaluation several times that number. So we'll large adoption acceleration evs and then a bit of a hangover as other struggle to.
Make compelling evs.
So there's been quite a few competing electric bicles that have entered the market, and mostly they have not done well, but they have discounted their quite substantially, which has made it but the board for Tesla, we don't see this as a long term issue.
But but really it's a fairly short.
Term and we still obviously firmly believe that evs are best for customers and that the world is headed for a fully electrified transport, not just the cars, but also aircraft and both. Despite many challenges, the Tesla team did a great job executing.
And we did achieve record quarterly revenues.
Energy storage deployments reached an all time high Q two, leading to record profits for the energy business, and we're investing in many future projects, including air training and inference and great infrastructure to support to future products. We won't get too much into the product roadmap here because that is reserved for product announcement events, but we are in fact to develop to deliver a more affordable model in the first half of the next year. Really, my father,
the biggest differentiated for Tesla is autonomy. In addition to that, we have scale economies and we're the most efficient electric vehicle producer in the world. While while others are pursuing different parts of the air robotic stac we're presuing all of them the slows for better cost control, more scale, cricket time to market, and a superior product applying not
to not just do autonomous to autonomous humanoid robots. Like optimists regarding full st driving and robot taxi, we've made a lot of progress with will sub driving in Q two, and with version twelve point five beginning rollout, we think customers will experience a staff change improvement in how well supervised full self driving works. Version twelve point five has five times the parameters of twelve point four and will finally merge the highway and city stacks, so the highway side is.
Soil at this point's pretty old.
So often the issues people like can are on the highway, but with twelve point five we're finally merged the two stacks. I still find out that most people actually don't know how good the system is, and I would encourage anyone to understand system better to simply try it out and
let the car drive you around. One of the things we're going to be doing just to make sure people actually understand the capabilities of the car is when delivering a new car and when picking up a car for so is to just show people how to use it and just drapping around the block. Once people use it at all, that they tend to continue using it. So it's it's very compelling, and this I think will be a massive demand driver. Even unsupervisedable self driving will be
a massive demand driver. And as we increase the miles between intervention, it will transition from supervisable self driving to unsupervisable self driving and we can unlock massive potential in Deeplee were postponed the sort of Robotaxia with the product unveiled by a couple months, where it's shifted to ten ten to October, and this is because I wanted to take some important changes that I think would improve the vehicle,
the sort of the Robotaxi. That think that I think that we're the main thing that we're going to show and we're also going to show up a couple of other things. So moving back, moving it back a few months allowed us to improve the Robotaxi as well as adding.
A couple of other things the product unveil.
We're also nearing completion of the self expension of Being Texas, which will has the largest training cluster to day. So the incremental fifty eight one hundreds plus twenty thousand of our hardware for or AI cive a Tesla AI computer with Optimists. Optimis is already forming tasks in our factory and we expect to have Optimist production version one in limited production starting early next year. This will be for Tesla consumption. It's just better for us to iron out
the issues ourselves. But we expect to have several thousand Optimus robots produced and doing useful things by the end of next year in the Tesli factories, and then in twenty twenty six wramping up production quite a bit, and at that point we'll be providing Optimist robots to outside customers. WELV production version two of Optimists. For the energy business, this is growing fast than anything else. This is we
are really demand constrained rather than production constrained. So we're wramping up production in our US factory as well as building our building megaback factory in China that's such a roughly double our output, more than network maybe troubled potentially. In conclusion, we're super excited about the progress across the board. We're changing the energy system, how people move around, happy wople approach the economy, the art taking is massive, but
I think the future is incredibly bright. It really just can't emphasize just importance of autonomy for the vesical side and for optimists. Although the numbers sound crazy, I think Tesla producing app volume with unsupervised MSD essentially the fleet to operate like a giant autonomous fleet, and it takes evaluation. I think to some pretty crazy number are invest thinks on the order of five trillion dollars, I think they're probably not wrong.
And long term optimists.
Enabling the fleet to operate like the giant autonomous fleet and it takes evaluation, I think to some pretty crazy number of ARC invest thinks on the order of five trillion dollars, I think they're probably not wrong. And long term optimists, I think is achieves evaluation several times that number. When can we do on supervidens to full self driving, It's difficult. My predictions on this have been overly optimists for the past our trend it seems as though we
should get miles between interventions to be high enough. That too far enough the access to humans that you could do untivized, possibly by the end of this year.
I would be shocked if we cannot do it next year.
So nexture seems highly probable to me based on when simply plus the points in the curve of miles between intervention, that trend exceeds human pushure next year. I'm quite concerned about actually being able to get steady art NA gvus when we want them, and I think this therefore requires that we put a lot more effort on dojo in order to have in order to ensure that we've got
the training capability that we need. We are going to double down on dojo, and we do see a path to being competitive with the video with dojo, and I think we kind of have no choice because the demand for video is so high and that it's obviously their obligation essentially to raise the price of GPUs to whatever the market will bear, which is very high.
I think we've really got to make dojo work, and we will.
Oustmus is intended to be a journalized humanoid robot a lot of intelligence, So it's like saying, what kind of accessories where we offered really human It's really intended to be able to be backwards compatible with human tasks, so it would be used any accessories that of human reduced. Trump has said that heavy towers on Bigle's produced in Mexico, So it doesn't make sense to invest a lot in Mexico if that is going to be the case. So
we can see where things to play out politically. But we are increasing in capacity at our existing factories quite significant. I should say that the cyber taxi or robotaxi will get produced here at our headquarters that get to Texas, right, thank you as well, and as well Optimists towards the end next year for Optimist production version to the high volume version of Optimists, we're also be produced here in Texas. I think that there are opportunities to integrate growth into software.
So it was just there was this was this big accent of a Tesla. There was no sales, the data centers were full, there was no place to actually put them be we were. We've been twenty four to seven to completely the self extension on the Tesla Big factory here in Texas.
That's self extension is what will house.
The fifty four hundreds and we're beginning to move the h one hundred server acts each place there. But we were really needed we needed that to be complete. Physically, if you can't order computer ordered GPUs and turn them on, but no, you need a data. Is that it's possible, don't want to be clear. That was in Tesla's interests,
not country Tesla centries. So the Tesla a no good to have GPUs that catch enough this, but second that self extension is able to take the GPUs, which is really just this week we're moving GPU's in there and we'll bring them online.
It was about to Xai, the only want.
To work on a GI So what I was finding was that we're trying to compuble to to Tesla. They were only interested in working on APM, not testing problems.
And they want to start they do a startup.
So it was case of either they go to a startup or and I'm involved, or do a startup and.
I'm not involved.
Those are the two choices. This wasn't they were They were to Tesla. They were not going to come to Tesla or any circumstances. Yeah, billion people on Earth, so it's a billion right there. Then you've got all of the industrial uses, which is probably at least as much.
I's not way more so.
I suspect that the long term evand for general purpose humanide robots is an excess of twenty billion unit and Tesla is that has the most advanced humorid robot in the world, and it is also very good at manufacturing, which each other companies are not.
And we've got a lot of experience, with.
The most experience where the world leaders in real world am so we have all of the ingredients. I think we're unique in having all of the ingredients necessary large scale, high utility generalized humanoid robots. But that's why my Brough estimate long term is in accordance with the oar invest analysis of a mock pap of on the order of five trillion for maybe more for Commoss transport, and it's several times that number for general purpose humanide robots.
I mean, at that point, I'm not sure what money even means. But in the end the.
Benign Ai scenario, we are headed for an age of abundance where there is no shortage of business services.
Anyone can have pretty much anything. It's a while verty while future we're edible. The distributed compute, Yeah, just really compute. That seems like a pretty obvious thing to do.
I think the where the distributed compute becomes in staying is with the next generation Tesla AI chook, which is hard of reviable work, which is from the standpoint of an infurnace capability comparable to B two hundred two hundred and we're able to have in production at the end of next year and scale production in twenty six.
So it just.
Seems if you've got even if you've got autonomous vehicles that are operating four fifty or sixty hours a week, there's one one hundred and sixty eight hours in a week. So we have somewhere above I think one hundred neural nen computing. I think we need a better word, the GPU, because GPU means craps plus and so there's a higherd hours plus per week of AI compute AI in burns compute from the fleet and vehicles and probably some percentage from human right robots that it would make sense to
do distributed in burns. And if you go there's a fleet at some point one hundred million vehicles with AI five and beyond AI six and seven whatnot, and they may be billions of human or robots.
That is just a staggering.
Amount of inforenced computer or that could be used for general purpose computing.
It doesn't have to be used for the human drobot or for the car.
So I think you know that's that's a pretty obvious thing to say. It's more useful than having to do nothing with that unique gateway computer too, So it's really a gateway computer with the cellular and Wi Fi, the tails like computer and seven cameras report nunt cameras that get efferency sage review. But this will give it give them the speed at which the border industry moves. It would be several years before you receive solution is a
generalized solution. Whatever else has if you see a like way Moo and what not, that very localized solutions that requires high density mapping. That's not it's quite fragile. Interability to expand out, believes is limited. Solution is a general solution that works anywhere.
It would even work on a different Earth. So if you're rendered a new Earth, it would work on a new Earth.
So it's this capability, I think in our experience, once we demonstrate that something is safe enough or significantly safer than human, we find that regulators are supportive of deployment.
Deployment of that capability.
It's difficult to argue with if you've got a large number of If you've got billions of miles that show that in future unsupervised FSD is safer than human what regulator could.
Really stand in the way of that.
They're marly obligated to approve, So I don't think regulatory
approval will be a limiting factor. I should aposed to say that the self driving capabilities of that are deployed outside of North America are far behind that in North America, so with the twelve point five and maybe twelve point six, but pretty soon we will ask for regular regulatory approval of the Tesla supervised FSD in Europe, China and other countries, and I think we're likely to receive that before the end of the year, thank you, which will be a
helpful demand driver in those region. Tops O JAM cancel it is because JAM can't make it work, not because of regulators. They're blaming regulators. That's most leading up then to do because a Waimo is doing just buying in those buckets. So it's just that their technology is not far. But there's the sh A number of times I've cooked with smart people who live in New York or in downtown Boston and don't ever drive and then are asking
me about FST. I'm like, you can just get a car and try it, and if you're not doing that.
You have no idea what's going on. This would just be the Tesla network.
You just literally open the Tesla app and sum in a car and re sent a car to pick you up and take you somewhere, and you can. We will have a fleet that's on the order of seven million, that a cateful of autonomy. Soon in the US to come it will be over ten million, then over twenty million. This is an immense scale and the car is able to operate twenty four to seven unlike the human driver the capability to if there's this basically instant scale with
a software. And now this is for a customer and fleet, so you think of that as being a bit like Airbnb. You can choose to allow your car to be used by the fleet or cancel it and bring it back. You'll be used by the fleet all the time, can be used by the fleet and some of the time, and then Tesla would take would share on the revenue with the customer. But you can think of the giant fleet of Tesla vehicles as like the giant sort of
Airbnb equivalent fleet, Airbnb on wheels. And in addition, we would make some number of cars for Tesla that would just be owned by Tesla and beat that to the fleet.
I guess that would be a bit more like Uber. But this will be a test a network.
And there's an important clause we've put in every Tesla purchase, which is that the Tesla vehicles can only be used in the Tesla fleet. They cannot be used by third party for or ting. The entire testl of fleet basically becomes active. And this is obviously maybe the number of people who don't want their car to own money, but
I think most people will. Yeah, we only find customers that they can put together a hodge Pludge solution, and then sometimes they'll pick that solutions and then that doesn't work.
Yeah. I think people don't understand just how much demand it will be for frig storage.
They really just like the PUP are understating this demand by product orders magnitude, so that the actual energy total energy output of state the US grid is if the power plants can operate at steady state, is at least to three times the amount of energy it can't be Producers because there are a huge gap. There's a huge difference in the from peak to trough in terms of
energy of power generation. In order for a grid to not have blackouts, it must be able to support the load at the worst minute of the worst day of the year, the coldest or hottest stay, which means that for the rest of the time, for the rest of the year, it's got massive excess power generation capability, but it has no way to store that energy. Once you add battery packs, you can now run the power plants
at steady state. Steady state means that basically any given grid anywhere in the world can produce in terms of cumulative energy in the course of the year, at least twice what it is currently producing.
That's okay, just maybe, I thank you. It's a very profound thing.
I guess that there would be like some impact, but I think it would be devastating our competitors and it would hurt TEXT slightly, but long term probably actually helps Tesla.
It would be my guess. Yeah, but yeah, I said this before. It's cooled.
If value of Tesla overwhelmingly this autonomy, these other things are in the noise relative to autonomy, so I recommend anyone who doesn't believe that says the will soul bigle autonomy should not hold testa Stop.
They should sell the testa stop.
You should believe Tesla will solve autonomy, you should buy testa Stop.
And all these other questions are in the noise.