Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast. This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads, the Shape, SpaceX, Tesla X, The Boring Company, and Neuralink.
I'm your host, Will Walden. Former President Donald J Trump, who is currently facing 34 felony counts, has announced plans to halt electric vehicle sales if he wins the upcoming election, including Tesla's. He is rallying the oil and gas industries for financial backing in exchange for reversing the Biden administration's climate policies, including rolling back emissions targets and slashing EV tax credits.
These proposals may not sit well with even Republican voters given the job growth and investments linked to EV production, especially in southern States. And since Trump first took office in 2016, the EV market
has seen significant growth. In 2016, only around 159,000 electric vehicles were sold in the USA, figure projected to surpass 1.5 million in 2024. And despite Trump's opposition, the market might have reached a growth point where it could continue without substantial federal support. Now, analysts believe the transition to E VS will persist, albeit possibly at a slower rate, if Trump's policies are
implemented. William Clay Ford Junior, who is the executive chair of Ford Motor, emphasized the challenge of adapting to fluctuating political landscapes. He said. Our time frame as a company, our planning time frame, is a lot longer than election cycles. He said this to the Detroit Free Press. And investments in US manufacturing spurred by the Inflation Reduction Act, or the IRA, are set to continue regardless of a potential second term for Trump.
For instance, Hyundai is investing $13 billion in EV production in Georgia, state Trump narrowly lost in 2020. And by targeting policies that support these investments, Trump risks undermining his support in states reliant on manufacturing jobs. Now, the EV market has seen substantial investments from automakers, charging companies and dealership networks, making it unlikely that Trump could
entirely halt his momentum. States like Texas and Florida, traditional Republican strongholds, have seen increasing EV adoption, second only to California in registrations. Now, this bipartisan consumer base suggests that Trump's hardline stance might alienate a significant portion of the electorate. And Trump's vocal dissidane for electric vehicles is clear. He has falsely claimed they are inefficient and pledged to dismantle Biden's supportive policies.
Trump has proposed a 100% tariff on E VS imported from Mexico if he regains the presidency, stating you're not going to be able to sell those cars. Despite Trump's potential actions, analysts argue that the market's growth trajectory might continue independently. A record 1.2 million Americans bought E VS last year, representing 7.6% of new car sales. This number is expected to rise 10% this year, indicating a tipping point toward widespread
adoption. While a Trump presidency could slow the EV transition, it's unlikely to stop it entirely. The Biden administration's aggressive climate policies, including a significant Environmental Protection Agency rule and substantial tax incentives, have been pivotal in driving EV adoption. Effort aims to make over 50% of new passenger vehicles all electric by 2032. Margot Ogg, a former head of EPA transportation emissions program, said if Trump is elected, we absolutely will not
reach Biden's target. This is important. If you can't get more EVs on the road, you can't do better for the world and for the economy. So I don't know why Trump is going to try to stop EVs. I, I don't understand that. It's all politics, as we all know. And Trump's dismissal of scientific evidence on climate change and his courting of the fossil fuel industry, it's all
well documented. He's urged industry executives to contribute a billion dollars to his campaign promising to reverse Biden's climate policies if re elected. Now there's a little problem here because some of these fossil fuel companies are transitioning to offering more EV tech in the future. BP British Petroleum, as it used to be called, is transitioning to EV chargers. They're making a whole charge for EV chargers.
So the whole industry of fossil fuels is changing with the times, and so should everybody else, in my opinion. I mean, if you're a fan of Tesla, you should not be a fan of what Trump is doing. And a second Trump administration could impact the EV market, though.
And it could rollback emissions regulations in altering tax credit rules that Biden set up. And if Republicans gain control of Congress, too, they might work to repeal parts of the Inflation Reduction Act, which has provided substantial support for clean energy and EV manufacturing. And despite these potential challenges, some automakers may
continue their EV initiatives. Analysts say that EV sales will persist, the company's continuing to build charging infrastructure and other supply chain components. And also the industry might lobby the politicians to maintain favorable policies. So historically, automakers have resisted stringent emissions controls. However, given the current investment in EV tech and infrastructure, sudden policy reversal could harm the whole
industry. The automotive sector has significantly evolved since 2017 with substantial investments in EV productions, and automakers like Ford have publicly opposed policy changes that disrupt long term planning. I mean, they plan decades into the future. And Ford has intervened in lawsuits supporting EPA regulations against Republican efforts to block emission limits now, William Clay Ford Junior said. Our time frame as a company, our planning time frame is a lot
longer than election cycles. Remember that. And other automakers might seek to negotiate slower implementation of emissions regulations rather than their complete removal. The Republican controlled Congress stance on rescinding EV tax credits remains uncertain. Right now. There's benefits from these credits that bring business to Georgia, South Carolina and Ohio and other states. And Hyundai's significant investment in Georgia, $13 billion for EV and battery
plants. It shows that the scale is improving and everything's getting bigger. It underscores the ongoing industrial shift, which might be resilient against politicians now, should Trump attempt to limit tax credits through Treasury regulations, particularly targeting materials like Chinese graphite, The EV industry might only face temporary setbacks, but could probably drive the price up a little bit.
Companies are also planning domestic graphite processing and alternatives, suggesting that the market's growth may continue through all of this. And federal tax credits have played a crucial role in making EVs more affordable for everybody. Because not everybody can go out and buy a $50,000 car that's a huge down payment for a house and make it affordable with these tax credits. And while Trump presidency might slow sales, it wouldn't destroy
the whole market. EVs are here to stay, Tesla's here to stay, and the $4000 tax credit has been instrumental in reducing costs for customers. Now the 29 or 2021 bipartisan infrastructure laws allocation of $7.5 billion for e.g. EV charging stations could be at risk if Trump works with Congress to rescind it. However, private investments in state funds have often outpaced federal programs. Tesla's going to continue building their charger
infrastructure. And Sarah Raphaelson of EV GOAT said increasing demand for EV charges in Republican LED states indicate a growing market beyond federal influence. The trend suggests that EV adoption could persist even with potential political setbacks. Now, Republican strategist Mike Murphy and the founder of the EV Politics Project pointed out that some Republican insiders quietly support EVs.
Of course, because we all know that politicians are a little bit underhanded sometimes, and they don't always tell the truth. They do little white lies. He said there will be sober, quiet voices even in Trump land that will push back. And the nice thing about Trump is that he can always change. He's totally transactional at possible shifts in Trump's stance based on practical
considerations. So if basically, if Trump can't get the money from the oil companies, the big oil companies, and the market is changing and everybody's pushing against him, he may change his mind. And that would be a good thing for all EV owners and Tesla fans. And there's ongoing investment in the EV market right now, particularly in states with
Republican leadership. And it's gonna be complex dynamics if Trump returns to office, the market's evolution driven by substantial private and state investments, suggesting resilience that could withstand any Trump or federal policy changes. Hey, thank you so much for listening today. I really do appreciate your
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