So those of you who have been following Tesla closely understand like you get it, you know, and so, so like important thing is you get it. I mean, it's so the yeah, where, where things are going. I think it's just going to be absolutely mind blowing. You know, we're, we're obviously making great progress in solving the sustainable energy problem, you know, with electric vehicles, with stationary
storage, with solar. And and then I think in terms of the the value of the company autonomy is just such a mind blowing thing. That's like I said, you guys understand, but I think most of the world does not yet understand. So, and you know, and talking to a lot of those sort of big institutional investors when they're often in like New York and they don't drive cars. So I'll be like, have you driven our car?
Have you, have you tried self driving, you know, the, the version 12.3 and they're like, oh, no, OK, well, you should try it. That would be a good thing to do. And, and if you just plot the points on the curve of how well autonomy is progressing and just believe the curve, it's headed towards unsupervised full self driving very quickly at an exponential pace. If you just, if you just, yeah, it's, it's, I mean, yeah. So it's, it's, it's, it's really as simple as that.
And in fact, I'd, I'd invite you to just do it personally, just say, OK, with each release, how many miles do you drive before you have to intervene? It's, it's, it's like literally that, that simple. And with each release you'll see it, there's a, there's a big improvement, big improvement. And it looks like an exponential. So, and it's very clear that that will actually go to the point where it is actually far safer than a person driving the
car. So, and, and I have some insight into, you know, the the next releases because we, we've, we've got basically for every release that's on the road, we, we kind of see what the next generation releases and a little bit about the release after that. So we have some insight into where it's going and it's really amazing. No question whatsoever. That will far exceed human safety.
Yeah, no question. So, and I think, you know, I have, I have mentioned this bit, but like sometimes it's, it's like helpful to sort of reiterate and connect some of the dots because sometimes people wonder, well, how do you go from this big fleet to actually monetizing the fleet in an autonomous situation? And it's, it's actually a combination of like it's like Airbnb and Uber to some degree. So like there'll be some cars that Tesla owns itself.
It's kind of like an Uber fashion, But then for the fleet that is owned by our customers, it will be like an Airbnb thing. You can add or subtract your car to the fleet whenever you want. So you can say like, I'm going away for a week at just one tap on your Tesla app, your car gets added to the fleet and it just makes money for you while you're gone.
Yeah. So you can say you, you can add it to the fleet for a few hours, for a few days, for a few weeks, whenever you want it back and say come back and Carl will come right back. And I'm I'm highly confident that it will far exceed the value of like the revenue made by the the owner of the car will far exceed the actual monthly
payment. And then Tesla will obviously take a rough share on that, but most of the money will go to the the owner of the car and it's this is actually going to work. This is what will happen. So you, I mean, I'd mark my words, this is this is simply a matter of time. Now, admittedly, I'm a little optimistic sometimes, you know, I'm, I, you know, so I don't have complete lack of self-awareness, but if I wasn't optimistic, this wouldn't exist.
This factory wouldn't exist, you know, So, so you know, that's what my brother, who's awesome, he's here got just got reelected. No, sorry. Those things. So it's like a little anecdote, like when we were kids in school, my, my brother would tell me the the wrong time for the bus so that I wouldn't miss the bus. And then I'd be upset with him. Like, why'd you tell me the bus was going to come earlier than it was? And, and, and he's like, well, because otherwise you'd be late for the bus.
This is an actual thing that would happen. So I'm, I, I guess I've been sort of pathologically optimistic from, you know, from birth, but, but that's the reason we're this is all the stuff is happening anyway. It's like I got to be somewhat pathologically optimistic, but I do deliver in the end. That's the important thing. So yeah, and it's, it's really just going to be something else.
I mentioned this before, but like the for Arkhanvest, I'd recommend reading the Arkhanvest analysis That's the most accurate there may be, you know, more accurate ones, but the most accurate sort of analysis of the potential of autonomy, the most accurate that I'm that I'm aware of is is Kathy Woods Arkhanvest. So, and if I recall correctly, they they predicted somewhere over a $5 trillion valuation for Tesla just based on vehicle autonomy, not counting optimists.
Yeah, yeah, I agree with that. So, so I think, I think, I think just based on vehicle autonomy, we can, we can 10X110X the value of the company. I believe that's what will happen. Yeah, I know. It's just what what do you know? It's it's it's 4:20 PM. Just noticed that. So you know, so so I think that's actually, I think that's that's pretty accurate.
But there's there's it actually gets way crazier when you think about the the optimist robot, which is really a humanoid robot that is intended to, you know, be able to do anything you want it to do to be, you know, it's, you know, your companion. It can be at your house, it can sort of babysit your kids. It could teach them be a teacher. It it, you know, it can do factory stuff. Like I think that the ultimate ratio of say, how many super useful humanoid helper droids do you want?
Like who doesn't want to see 3PO, you know, you know, but AC3PO plus R2D2 plus, you know, plus plus it would be pretty awesome. I think. I think everyone in the world is going to want one, like literally everyone. And, and then there'll be obviously robots in industry making stuff. And so I mean, I, I think the ratio of humanoid robots to humans will probably be at least 2 to one, something like that.
One to one for sure. So which means like somewhere on the order of 10 billion humanoid robots, maybe maybe 20 or 30. And so then it's like, OK, well, let's say, you know, you kind of make, let's say the build rate is, I think the build rate will be probably something ultimately like a billion a year humanoid robots like actually, and if Tesla just has a 10% share of that and it might be a lot more than 10%. And there's, you know, we make like 100 million optimist units
a year. I just, I mean, for reference, the auto industry is roughly 100 million vehicles per year. So that, you know, sort of similar ballpark at least within an order of magnitude. And I, I, I think we could make one for a cost of maybe at, at, at really high scale of about $10,000. It's, it's, it's smaller, it'd
be less expensive than a car. So, and I think if you sold it for sell it for $20,000 or something, this is at large scale volume, Tesla would basically make about a trillion dollars of profit a year from that. So yeah, if the price earnings multiple is say on a 20 or 25 something like that, that would mean a $20 trillion market cap from Optimus alone and and probably 5 to 10 from autonomous
vehicles. So like, I think it's actually conceivable it's when within the realm of possibility for Tesla to achieve evaluation 10 times that of the most valuable company today. So, so when I say this is like we're starting a new book, I mean, it's going to be the best book. Next level, next, next, next, next level. Now we need to make sure these robots are nice to us. And you know, that's very important. So, so anyway, that's so with that, let me get into the presentation.
Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Oh man, I, I think it might be worth us just putting a word limit on future shareholder Tesla proposals. It's like, it's like, like you can't have like a novel length, you know, it's correct, but like you can't have a whole novel as a, as a proposal. So, you know, as you can see, our impact is accelerating, You know, we're, we're starting to make a real noticeable bent in COVID emissions.
So we're, we're really, you know, making a lot of progress towards achieving our goal of sustainability. And one of the, the, the effects of autonomy is actually is going to be an even greater effect on carbon emissions. Because I, I, I suspect that we'll go from passenger cars having about 10 hours of usage per week, about an hour and a half per day to probably a third of the hours in the week, maybe 5055 hours, which means the same car will, will be used five
times more often. So, so you need a certain amount of resources to make the car, but it'll have five times the usage. In my opinion, I think that's quite likely, which will be an even more dramatic impact on carbon emissions. So, you know, we, we're, we care a lot about sustainable manufacturing. Our, our factories are beautiful. You walk around the factory, it's, it's, it's actually, you know, contrary to these, like, what do you mean the press? It's like a good vibe in the factory.
Like people are smiling and happy. It's like, it's nice. So, so yeah. So I mean, we do care. We actually do care a lot. It tells us about doing the right thing. And we, you know, we're not going to be perfect, but we do care a lot about doing the right thing. So our vehicles are water efficient, energy efficient. You know, we try whenever possible to use renewables for powering the factory and you know, do do our best to do the right thing. Our batteries are lasting a lot
longer. I got too many things, man. Anyway, the batteries that last lasting a lot longer, which is, which is good safety is is is good in the factory. We're improving the affordability of BBS, you know, model wise comparable to BMW X3, but it's actual cost of ownership on a monthly basis is much lower. We were number one in EVs globally last year. So, yeah, so yeah, so let's see and grass the Tesla team on making 6,000,000 vehicles all time.
So, so that I mean the Tesla fleet is really becoming very substantial. I mean it's going to be 7 million vehicles by the end of this year, over 7 million vehicles. So we had, and our, our factory in Fremont is currently the highest volume order order factory in North America. So, and, and we broke the prior production record from when it was new me. So it's, it's actually pretty wild that there's a, we have a giant car factory in the San Francisco Bay Area.
It's, it's like it's not exactly the cheapest place to have a car factory. It's like that and the Swiss Alps or something, you know, but, but we, we still managed to make, you know, great cars at high volume. And that's a testament to the, the great team we've got in Fremont. So Congrats to the Fremont team. And yeah, a lot of people were saying the cyber truck is like fake. It's never going to come out, you know, and now we're shipping a lot of cyber trucks.
We we had a, a weekly record of 1300. So and you know, I think that with a cyber truck, it really is something special. Like if you'll sometimes have like different opinions on the cyber truck. But if you really want to know if there's a, if something is, is cool, if it's, if it's a great product, like show it to a kid, OK, like no filter. OK, the kids got like no filter, like a 5 year old, 6 year old, something like that and or even 3 year old and say, which car do you like Cybertruck?
So it's like that's how you know, and it's it's finally something that it it just looks like the future. It's and it drives so well. It's it, you know, it's comfortable. It's it's just a fantastic product. I think it's our I think it's our best product and it's a lot of innovation. It's got a 48 Volt low voltage system finally, instead of 12 volts, 800 Volt drivetrain, the world's biggest castings.
You know, it's bulletproof, all, all the cool things can, you know, out pull AF350 diesel, which is a very impressive truck and it can, you know, it, it can do a quarter mile faster than a Porsche 9/11 while towing a Porsche 9/11. So that's insane. So yeah. And we think if you think about it like how how often do companies make products that move your heart that are really special, It's it's so rare. And I think this is one of them.
So yeah. And we launched the upgraded 3, which is actually a fantastic car. I recommend trying it out. It's it's really a great car and it's only $216 after a gas savings like total cost of ownership. It's basically 200 and something dollars when compared to a gasoline car. Some like gasoline car. So it's it's it's really a great deal and a fun car. And the performance multi performance is well, it's it's like, you know, fast and a Porsche 9/11 it's just a great, great car.
So yeah, So yeah, yeah. And of course model Model Y became the best selling vehicle globally. And this this is something that we predicted. So, you know, like I said in like 2022, it would Model Y would be the biggest the car in the world by dollar volume sales. And at 2023 it will be the biggest in unit volume. And it was and again this year it will be the best selling car on earth.
So yeah. And we obviously we've got the Tesla Semi. You know, we're we're in low volume production of the Tesla Semi. And just last week, I've I approved the plans for volume production of the Tesla Semi. So we're we're going to make a lot of semi trucks. So we're we're going to start off with, yeah, it's, it's, it's something I think it'll actually move the needle financially. It's not like it's not a small, small thing. And the thing about like
commercial vehicles is that. Companies that use them are super objective. It's not like it's actually, I mean, obviously we're going to make it have cool style and be an awesome car. But for commercial vehicles, the companies that make the buying decisions, they they just look at say like, what are the numbers? Like is this cost less to transport or it costs more to transport than than say a diesel truck? And The thing is that economics are much better than than diesel
truck. It's kind of basically a no brainer. If you're a transport company, you don't use an electric, the Tesla electric semi, you're just losing money. Why would you do that? Do you not like money? OK, but if you do like money, then I recommend using the Tesla semi.
And so, so I think this is, this is really going to actually sell at a scale that people will be surprised at and, and we'll actually move the needle financially and, and do a lot of good and also for, for CO2 and, and, and sustainability because semis are driven all the time, actually even at, at much smaller numbers, they have a, a very big effect on total carbon
emissions solved. So obviously we've got some new, new products that we're working on under the covers and I think these these are, I think this is going to be pretty special. So, you know, some of them I think people at maybe at first may think, oh, it's not going to be that amazing, but just wait, it will be so, so our supercharge network is continuing to grow. You know, rumors of the death of Supercharger are greatly exaggerated.
We, we are in fact continuing to grow the supercharged network significantly. In fact, this year I think we'll put more, we'll deploy more Superchargers this year that are actually working than the rest of industry combined, just FYI. So now, now we are going to be more careful about like you know, the capital efficiency of where we deploy supercharges. But for sure any place that has congestion, any sort of missing parts of the map that we're missing, we're going to put the
superchargers there. So even for the remainder of the year, we, we expect to spend about half a billion dollars on, on supercharge of deployment. So it's, it's very significant and to be a well spent half a billion. So this is a, you know, it's, it's a lot. So, and we're this is actually not showing a bunch of new markets that will be opening up later this year and next. So we're obviously what we want Tesla to be worldwide.
And this is a lot of countries that we, you know, have zero to very few Tesla's. And we obviously we, we want Tesla everywhere. So there are a lot of new markets that we're going to open up later this year or next. We're also opening the Supercharger of Superchargers to other companies with the that's, that's the adapter to the old somewhat somewhat clunky connector. But our goal is to be helpful to other car companies.
So any other car companies that are going electric, we do want to, we do want to be helpful to them with our Supercharger network. So we're providing them with adapters and enabling them to have access to the Tesla Supercharging network because we think it's better to do that than to create a walled garden that inhibits EV growth. Oops. There's a bit of latency here. And we're also innovating a lot in battery production with the
4680 that's built right here. And it is it's a hard problem, you know, like there, there are entire companies that just make battery cells. That's all they do. And but we're making good progress, like all the cyber trucks that you see use the Tesla 4680 cell and that we have a clear path to the 4680 being, we think probably the most competitive cell from it's from a manufacturing efficiency standpoint. And so it's, it's, but it is, it
is a hard problem. I have to say there's, there's quite a lot of brain damage required to be good at cell manufacturing. It's like a brain damage high. But I think it does, it does give Tesla resilience in the face of if there are changes in the, I don't know, geopolitical situation somehow, but it like it's good to have so many independence in cell manufacturing. So, yeah, and we're making steady progress.
And we also have the the cathode refinery, which you can see behind the the, the main factory. So you can sort of see it in the picture there. That's a cathode refinery. And then we've got the lithium refinery in South Texas. And so we're just making sure we've kind of got the piece of the puzzle and delete. I mean, if you were to look at sort of a video of how Tesla does say cathode and, and lithium refining and how the rest of industry does it, it's night and day.
I mean, you can sort of eat off the floor in the, in the Tesla refinery. And I would not recommend doing so in the others. So, you know, it's, it's really, it's, it's, it would definitely go very, very vertical here. But I think this, this is a, it's a wise investment that will that will pay off more than people realize. So I don't think this thing is working. So this year we're also on track to complete a massive number of energy deployments.
So that is a gigantic increase in in deployment capability. So we're really, we seem to be tracking to sort of a 2 to 300% year over year growth and and energy storage deployment and stationary pack. So it's giant. And the, the limiting factor really is being able to build more mega packs and build more power walls.
So we're ramping up production of the power Wall 3, which is really a game changer for at, at the personal level, the Powerwall 3, it usually takes about 3 iterations of, of any given technology to, to really for, for it to be something where it's like, OK, now we're really hitting the sweet spot. So Powerwall 3 is like an epic product.
The Mega Pack is also, it's even it's, I'd call it sort of iteration 2 of mega Pack is, is also an epic product with, with the mega pack three, which is on a probably a couple years away. We'll we'll start actually absorbing more and more of the substation of the, of the, of the sort of power electronics. So I sort of think you want to get to the point with the mega pack where you can literally just take the high voltage power lines and plug them in. Just there's no substation.
We just just plug them in, just drop them down and drop it down and plug it in. That's, and now it works, which is like mind blowing for the utility industry, by the way. Like they're like what? Yeah, usually just plug the wires in and it'll work for, for for very high voltage. So that that I think is actually going to be a major. So this is anyway. So, yeah, this is this is great, excellent work by the energy storage team. Services and other are also looking good.
So we're actually now making money on the services and other stuff. So this is a kind of a big deal, right? Yeah. So see. Yeah. And Tesla's obviously way more than a car company. We've, you know, we've, we do a lot of software at Tesla, you know, about, I don't know, roughly half the, or a very huge percentage of the, of the engineering we do is actually software engineering. So Tesla's, I'd say as much a software company as it is a hardware company.
This is a very big deal because car companies are not software companies normally. So this, this matters a lot. So things like our auto bit of software for energy storage, all the software that controls the cars, the mega packs, the the power walls of the solar at the obviously for AI and and full self driving are big deal insurance service and collision.
That Tesla also writes a lot of software internally that that helps that like we call like the Tesla operating system internally that is head and shoulders above what any other company has. I think probably better than any Fortune 500 company. The Tesla internal software is is just way better. So it's yeah, it's just far more than what people normally think of as a car company. And Tesla's also the world the leader in real world AI.
So there's really this is a big deal like Tesla is a head of of Google Matter, you know, opening eye anyone on real world software actually look, taking in video and making decisions based on video. No one can no one is even close. And it's getting better, I'd say with each passing month, if not each passing week. So yeah, and and it's it's it's also worth noting that Tesla is actually pretty good at chip design. So the, the AI inference chip that's, that was designed by
Tesla, that's in cars. We had sort of our hardware 3 AI in furnace cars made in the, you know, over the past year have the hardware 4. We've just completed design on hardware 5, which we're now calling AI 5 because it, it's, it's really is, it's, it's, it's, there's still actually is not a, a chip from NVIDIA or from. And I have a lot of respect for NVIDIA from any company that we would prefer to put in our car that is better than what we have
in the car. So, so we, we, we started from scratch in chip design, just as we started from scratch in AI software and have the best real world AI software and the and the best AI and furnace chip in the world from nothing. So this is, you know, a big deal. And the, the capability of the of the, of the chips in the car is, is dramatic. Like, I mean, right now all the cars are actually training like we, we have hardware four run
hardware 3IN emulation mode. So we'll continue to make significant progress in hardware 3, but later this year we'll actually bifurcate, continue working on hardware 3, sort of training on hardware 3, but but then do separate training on hardware 4. That'll be the the sort of training cluster that we're building at the South side of the the Gigafactory and that that'll be dedicated hardware 4
video and inference. And you know, so that the hardware 4 has cameras that have four or five times better resolution. And depending on how you count the, the sort of hardware 4, it's, it's about anywhere from 3 to 8 times better than hardware 3. So it's, but, but everything you're seeing thus far is just hardware 3. And we still have a long way to go before we get, we reach the limits of hardware 3.
So hardware three, I think will, will still will do amazing things, but but hardware four, I think we'll probably do about five times better then hardware 5, which comes out in about 18 months or so is 10 times more capable than hardware 4. It's it's like a, so if you know NVIDIA hardware, it's it's sort of AB200 class computer. So you know, that's like this. So what we'll just progressively do is improve how many nines of reliability the car gets. And I and then of course that
will go into Optimus as well. So the same chip will go into, you know, hardware fog will go into is, is an Optimus hardware AI5, which we're calling switching from hardware 5 to AI5 will be an Optimus and in, in all cars in in about 18 months. And it's really just a staggering amount of compute and it's very, it's very power efficient to compute.
So it's, it's got to be because if you're in a mobile application like a humanoid robot or a car, you, you can't just be sucking down 10 kilowatts, you know, like you can in a data center. So you you've got to be very power efficient. So the, you know, sort of hardware three and four are only a few 100 watts.
Yeah, Yeah, this is hard. Now hardware 5 will will be able to go probably up to about 7 or 800 watts It but it'll, it'll power fluctuate contingent upon the complexity of the scene that it is that it is in. So if it is in a, you know, parking lot stationary, it's like, you know, you know, you don't have to think very much just like a person, like if you're in a complicated traffic scenario, you've got to think a lot more than if you're just cruising along, you know, on an
empty Rd. But something that I think is potentially interesting down the road is like at some point the Tesla fleet I think will probably be, you know, over 100 million vehicles. And if each vehicle has a kilowatt of efficient inference compute, I think there's a, there's, I think there's an sort of an Amazon Web Services, AWS type opportunity. Because if you got 100 million vehicles with a kilowatt of efficient inference compute, you've got 100 gigawatts of compute, like 100 gigawatts of
computers a lot. And it's distributed all over the world. So Even so, when the car is not in autonomous mode, which I think probably is, you know, doing robo taxi work maybe 50-60 hours a week, but about 100 hours a week, it's it's not, it's probably stationary. So, so there's 100 hours of 100 gigawatts of Infernus compute, which I think we should use. Why not?
You know, when, when, when people looked at Amazon, we started out obviously as an online bookseller and it's on, you know, it's going to be like this incredible place where you can buy anything. And, and then they, and then Amazon Web Services like, well, they got all these computers that only really see peak usage sometimes, but what are they going to do when it's not peak usage? And sometimes the Amazon servers are down like 10%.
So that's when they said, well, let's do Amazon Web Services. And then Amazon Web Services became more valuable than the entire rest of Amazon. And, you know, I think there's, there's some kind of opportunity there that's pretty significant for, for Tesla down the road. You know, again, that's really nobody's really factoring that in, but I think that that actually will be quite significant. We also know are no longer compute constrained for
training. So I, I check in with the team, it's like, is there anything we could do to improve the pace of progress with respect to training and inference? And currently that is not the limiting factor. In fact, the limiting factor right now is that the, the amount of miles between interventions is so long that it takes quite a while to figure out which version is better than the other version because none of them are requiring any
interventions. So it's like, you know, if you're not getting to like thousands of miles between interventions or you're like 10,000 miles to get an intervention, then like, well, the average person only drives about 10,000 miles in a year. And if it's in an urban environment and the average speed is 20 miles an hour, I mean, so our professional test drivers get pretty bored, frankly. You know, they, they're like, OK, I drove all week and there was no intervention.
Like, like the highlight of the week would be like, yes, an intervention. Finally, it's like getting to that point. So this is where actually having a giant fleet is extremely important because we can deploy a new FSD model and run it in shadow mode and see what see how
well it performs. You know, compare how the human drives the car versus the the new self driving build and and then analyze that delta in shadow mode, like the shadow knows or doesn't know, as the case may be, and and then be able to assess by getting billions of miles very quickly with the giant fleet like that. Basically that that data engine is incredibly helpful. Like I actually, it's not possible to solve the self driving problem without having millions of vehicles on the road.
So, so that's actually the, it's like figuring out clever ways to test which how good the next build FSD build is, is, is actually the limiting factor right now. And then of course, like I said, we are building another training data center right here, which will be dedicated to Hardware 4 training. So we'll, we'll bifurcate Hardware 3 and Hardware 4 training later this year. We'll, we'll keep improving Hardware 3, but we're going to uncork the full capability of Hardware 4 as well.
So yeah, I think, I think most people here have tried out version 12 as we did say like sort of unsupervised full self driving, full self driving would be version 12. So we we are actually just keeping the version arbitrarily at 12 and then like pulling a 12.412 point 312 point 412.5. But it's actually really like version 13, version 14.
But anyways, this is an arbitrary designation, so 12.4 is actually like a whole different version than than 12.3 and 12.5 is a whole different version 12.4. So you'll see really giant improvements. I think sometimes factor of 10 improvements between a successive versions. And then as I mentioned, the way it'll work for the existing fleet is are we able to add or subtract your car to the fleet as as you'd like? And, and there will also be Tesla owned cars.
So it'll be a combination of like Uber plus Airbnb, but it'll be pretty wild that the, that there'll be a software update and then the whole, the whole fleet suddenly becomes accessible. It's like suddenly you've got 7,000,010 million cars that can ultimately 10s of millions of cars that can do autonomous driving and instead of being used 10 hours a week, can be used 50 or 60 hours a week.
So it's it's pretty wild to just, you know, be in Palo Alto with a bunch of cubes and then a humanoid robot just walks past. We've made it a massive amount of progress with Optimists in a short period of time, from someone pretending to be a robot dancing in a suit to a pretty hodgepodgey robot, to a robot that is actually doing useful tasks in the factory today.
So we have two optimist robots in our Fremont factory that are doing basically this task, which is taking cells off the end of the line and placing them in a shipping container. And yeah, we actually have quite a few of these cruising around our offices in in Palo Alto. So there's and, and I think we've got kind of like one major hardware revision, which should be done by end of this year or early next before.
And and then we'll move into a limited production next year of Optimists limited production for use in our factories where we'll test out the product kind of, you know, you know, as I said, sort of eat our own dog food or whatever the electronic equivalent of that is. So, but I think like next year, my prediction is next year we'll have over over 1000, maybe a few thousand Optimus robots working at Tesla and, and, and things are going to scale up very rapidly from there.
So we'll iron out the bugs. It'll like the degree of autonomy will be radically better. You'll just literally be able to talk to it and say, please do this task or I'm going to show you something now do that the thing that I'm showing you and, you know, get to the point where it can watch a video of something like a person and and then learn just by looking at that video and and do that task. So yeah. So really it's going to be quite
something. And and I'm confident of the prediction that there will be more like the ratio of humanoid robots to humans will be greater than one to 1. So there'll be, you know, more than 10 billion humanoid robots in the world, probably 20 or more. And Tesla's going to be by far the leader in that.
You're seeing a lot of robot startups and, but I think it's actually very challenging to, to do Optimus as a robot startup because what we found to make Optimus work, we've had to design, design from first principles from scratch every part of the robot. So the motor, the gearbox, the sensors, the power electronics, the communication system, everything had to be done from scratch. We, we found that there's basically nothing.
There's no supply chain. So even though there are many electric motors made in the world, there's no supply chain for the types of motors and sensors and gearboxes that are needed for a humanoid robot. And you, I mean, what you're saying here is our current generation hand and arm, but our next, which has 11° of freedom, our next generation has 22° of freedom. It will be able to play the piano. So it's, it's really like, wow.
Now, of course, like I said, we need to make sure you don't have the Terminator scenario. That's very important. So safety of the humanoid robot will be very important, but because it requires so much ground up design, designing every motor, gearbox, sensor, power electronics from scratch, it's, it's very hard for a startup to, if not impossible for a startup to replicate that. But at Tesla, we have the world's best electrical engineering.
I think we've got the world's best mechanical engineering for, for gearboxes and, and, and for the electric motors, power electronics. So, you know, we have the resources to do that it it applies quite well. And then you also have to have the, the brain you need the you need the, the you need a power efficient inference computer, which we've got for the car and we'll be using an optimist. You need AI real, you need to be the best in real world AI and tells us the best in real world AI.
So you need all of these. You need a very strong hand of cards in order to make a compelling robot. And then you also need to be very good at scale manufacturing. So in order to have the robot not cost like hundreds of thousands of dollars, in order to make it cost like, you know, 10 or $20,000, actually need to design for manufacturing and be very good at manufacturing. And what in my experience prototypes are, are easy compared to volume manufacturing.
Prototypes are easy. Production is hard, relatively speaking. So Tesla has the production capability, it has the engineering capability and has the AI hardware and software capability and even the most optimistic estimates that I've seen for for optimists, the optimist optimist, I think under under count the magnitude of of what this robot will be able to do.
You know, as I said at the beginning of the of the presentation, I, you know, I agree with the Arkan best analysis that autonomous transport is called sort of a 5 to $7 trillion market cap situation. Optimus, I think is is a 25 literally $25 trillion market cap situation. Now, I don't want to, I don't want to trivialize, trivialize what's necessary to get there. I mean, it's an immense amount of work that is required to get there, like super difficult, but we are moving very fast down
that road. We're going to make it happen. So thank you.