What if the first permanent human outpost on the moon doesn't have a NASA patch or a United States flag, but a Chinese flag? What happens if in just a few years, China isn't just visiting the moon, but controlling where the next chapter of human space activity gets written? Now Beijing has given its answer. A lunar landing by 20-30 and a base by 2035 and a sprawling outpost network by mid century now. No vague timelines here, no future possibilities.
It's all written, mapped out and already in motion. It's a state strategy, and over the past decade China has transformed from a competent space player to the most aggressive builder of off world infrastructure since the Cold War. It's human moon program now has an operational countdown. The Long March 10 Super Heavy rocket is already in development. So is the new crude Lander. And they're developing lunar grade Eva suits, building new launch infrastructure and
finalizing astronaut selections. Now, the tone from officials tactically understated. Everything is preceded in an orderly manner in China's space lexicon. It's usually assigned Things are ahead of schedule. This all stems from a space program that's been logging
serious accomplishments. China landed a Rover on the far side of the moon in 2019. It brought back lunar samples in 2020. Is Tianyang space Station has been permanently crewed since 2021 and its current planning includes Shenzhou 20 and 21. The two new crude missions to orbit that are intended is training grounds for longer
duration deep space operations. The human element is expanding to China recently inked a deal with Pakistan to train and fly astronauts to Tiangong, the first confirmed foreign visitors to the space station. That move isn't just a nod to international goodwill. It's a signal China is willing to share its latforms as long as it's in the driver's seat.
And at the heart of this effort is the International Lunar Research Station, or ILRS, first announced in 2021 alongside Russia. The project has not become a mostly At the heart of this effort is the International Lunar Research Station, or ILRS. First announced in 2021 alongside of Russia, the project has now become a mostly Chinese LED venture. The plan is methodical and built
around 2 phases. First a basic but operational research at the Moon South Pole by 2035, then an expansion into a multisite lunar system by 2050, featuring nodes at the equator and the far side. Think of it as less as a moon base and more as a small off world nation linked together by orbiting hubs and robotic logistics.
This is a comprehensive lunar station network that utilizes the Lunar Orbit station as its central hub and the South Pole station as its primary base, and it'll include exploration nodes on the lunar equator in the far side of the Moon. It's a blueprint for permanent infrastructure, but China's not planning to haul up steel and concrete from Earth to build it. That would be logistically absurd. Instead, they're testing the moon's own dirt as a
construction material. They recently launched brick samples made from simulated lunar regolith to the Tiangong space station to assess how the hold up under deep space conditions where temperatures swing between 180 and -190°C. The bricks are a key part of their 2028 mission, which will test in situ construction using autonomous 3D printed robots nicknamed Chinese Supermasons. That mission will also finalize site selection for the ILRS. China has zeroed in on the lunar
South Pole for good reason. What are the few places on the moon where sunlight is nearly continuous? And that's ideal for solar power generation. And it's home to craters that may contain large reserves of water ice. That water can be split into hydrogen and oxygen, essential for breathable air, drinkable water and also rocket fuel. Then there's helium, 3A rare isotope trapped in the moon's soil that China sees as a long term solution to its energy puzzle.
It's barely present on Earth but relatively abundant on the moon. And if nuclear fusion ever crosses the threshold into commercial viability, Helium 3 could fuel clean reactors with 10 times the energy output of traditional fission without radioactive waste. Whoever controls Helium 3 controls the future of energy markets. Now that makes the ILRS not just a science base, but a potential
mining operation. Chinese researchers at the Beijing Research Institute of Uranium Geology are already working on extraction techniques. And China's Chang Six and Seven missions are focused on identifying helium 3 rich areas ahead of planned harvest trials in the Twenty 30s. Now this space is not only a platform for lunar science, though, it's also a test bed for human Mars missions. The logic is straightforward. You prove everything on the Moon.
China's three phase Space Development Road map, released officially in 2024, lays out the progression from Earth orbit to the Moon to Mars and beyond. Phase 1, running through 2027, is about building technical competence. Phase two, 2028 through 2035, moves into human lunar landings and base operations. Phase three target in the Twenty 40s and beyond includes crude missions to Mars and other deep
space destinations. Tianwin 3, China's planned Mars sample return mission, is slated for 2028 now. If successful, it would beat NASA's equivalent project by a few years. That wouldn't just be a scientific win, it would hand China a major diplomatic talking point as the first country to pull off a round trip to Mars now. And China isn't doing that alone, though There's 13 countries involved, including Russia, Egypt, Senegal, and they've all signed up for
participation in the ILRS. The number could reach 50 by 2050. It's a contrast to the US-led Artemis Accords with emphasized transparency and rulemaking. Partners can come on board, but it's Beijing's ship, and the US has repeatedly pointed out that the moon isn't for claiming 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits sovereign ownership of celestial territory. But the treaty has loopholes. Any country can withdraw with 12 months notice.
And while legal scholars debate the letter of the law, China may be preparing to demonstrate a kind of de facto control through infrastructure presence, not with flags, but with permanent operation. In 2012, a Defense analyst report laid out a plausible future scenario in which China could assert operational authority over its lunar territory, citing both strategic necessity and prestige. That hasn't happened yet, though. But now that China is building exactly that kind of base, the
scenario seems less speculative. Then there's the military angle. China's space program is officially civilian, but dual use technology is hard to ignore. Communication arrays, nuclear power systems, and long range sensors all serve scientific missions and also military ones. A lunar presence enables space based surveillance, logistics control, and sys lunar operations that extend far
beyond the Moon itself. Sys lunar space, the volume between Earth and the Moon, is quickly becoming the next theater of strategic interest. By controlling infrastructure along that route, China could influence not only lunar operations, but future operational traffic, deep space launches, and also satellite networks. None of these require weapons though, just the ability to observe, respond, and control the flow of information. So why does any of this matter to the rest of the world?
Because the Moon is no longer neutral. It's becoming a domain of economic, political, and strategic war competition. Whoever dominates the moon could shape global access to off world resources, influence energy markets, and control interplanetary logistics. It's a live geopolitical issue now. It also matters because space law hasn't caught up. Most agreements around celestial activity are decades old and
vague by today's standards. But no enforcement mechanics, no global authority managing space conduct. It's infrastructure that sets the rules, and right now China is the one pouring concrete. And if China succeeds in building the ILRS by 2035, with mining and power systems in place, by the twenty 40's, the rest of the world will be negotiating from behind. Not because they lost a race or a war, but because they never ran in it.
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