Common Thread Collective just launched the Prophit Engine to the public—and in this episode, Richard and Taylor break down what it is, why it exists, and how it helps DTC brands forecast more accurately, grow contribution margin, and simplify their growth stack for less cost. You’ll hear how CTC is combining data + methodology + AI-enabled tooling into a system (and a new “Profit Engineer” role) that replaces complexity with clear expectations and execution. What we cover Why profit + predictabi...
Mar 05, 2026•25 min
In this episode, Richard and Taylor Holiday discuss the rise of the “SEANs” — the Software-Enabled AgeNcy — and why it represents a fundamental shift in how eCommerce brands will build growth teams going forward. Taylor explains how traditional agencies struggle to operationalize institutional knowledge across individuals, leading to inconsistent execution and diffused accountability. The solution? Embedding a clear point of view directly into software, turning ideology into infrastructure. Rath...
Mar 03, 2026•29 min
Incrementality tests are “in”… but the real problem is what you do after the read. In this episode, Taylor sits down with Olivia Kory (Chief Strategy Officer at Haus) and George Davis (CMO at Cozy Earth) to unpack the messiest part of modern measurement: operationalizing incrementality when results swing, channels conflict, and “platform ROAS” can’t be trusted. If you’ve ever asked: “Our holdout came back way lower than Meta… now what?” “Why don’t test results replicate month-to-month?” “How do ...
Feb 26, 2026•1 hr 30 min
Sales tax feels simple—until you hit nexus. In this episode, Ryan Pinkham (VP of Go-to-Market at TaxCloud) breaks down why sales tax gets complex fast for growing ecommerce brands, what happens when you cross nexus thresholds in new states, and how ignoring compliance can turn into a painful (and expensive) distraction. We cover: What sales tax nexus actually means for ecommerce The three “buckets” of brands (doing nothing, unhappy with current tools, or knowingly delaying) Why sales tax is a ye...
Feb 24, 2026•9 min
Acquisition is getting tighter! In this episode, we flip the script and talk about the lever most brands under-invest in: retention + lifecycle marketing. Taylor is joined by Jennifer Peters, Director of DTC, MarTech & Digital Compliance at OLLY (a Unilever brand), to break down how they think about keeping customers coming back when the brand is sold everywhere — from Target and Walmart to their own DTC site. We get into what retention really means beyond “subscription,” how to message cust...
Feb 19, 2026•33 min
In this episode, Richard and Luke unpack a pattern they couldn’t ignore after running 224 sales call transcripts through an LLM: The #1 issue mid-market ecommerce brands face isn’t that performance is down… it’s that they don’t know why performance is happening. And when you don’t trust the numbers, you can’t trust the decisions. Luke walks through a painfully familiar weekly business review scenario—multiple agencies, multiple dashboards, multiple “versions of the truth”—where 80% of the meetin...
Feb 17, 2026•31 min
Scaling a DTC brand from $1M → $10M isn’t about finding more “hacks,” it’s about focusing on the right growth lever at the right revenue stage. In this episode, Richard and Joy, break down a practical “one move per stage” roadmap for scaling through seven figures into eight. What you’ll learn in this video $1M → $2M: Why creative volume is the unlock (and why the benchmark is ~100 ads/month) $2M → $3M: Build a marketing calendar (one marketing moment per month) to create “reasons to buy” beyond ...
Feb 12, 2026•41 min
In this episode, Richard and Luke break down the system we use to help 8-figure ecommerce brands stop guessing and start making confident decisions about budget, creative, and channel investment. They walk through the three core models that answer the questions every operator wrestles with: How much should we actually spend right now? How much creative do we need to support that spend? Which channels should we test next — and why? You’ll learn how to spot when additional ad spend becomes a bad t...
Feb 10, 2026•42 min
AI promised clarity. Instead, it delivered information overload. In this episode, we unpack what happens when AI gives ecommerce teams more data than they can reasonably act on, dashboards multiplying, forecasts diverging, tests contradicting each other, and decisions getting harder instead of easier. Taylor and Andrew talk through: Why AI surfaces problems faster than it solves them How “more insight” can actually paralyze operators The limits of forecasting, incrementality, and optimization at...
Feb 05, 2026•1 hr 24 min
In this episode, Richard and Tony break down what agentic commerce actually is, why Shopify and Google’s Universal Commerce Protocol matters, and how AI-driven shopping is quietly replacing traditional websites, checkout flows, and even ads. Instead of customers clicking through pages, filtering products, and checking out manually, AI agents are beginning to discover products, compare options, negotiate price, and complete purchases on behalf of users. That shift has massive implications for mar...
Feb 03, 2026•30 min
Creative strategy doesn’t fail because of bad ideas, it fails because it isn’t operationalized. In this episode, we break down how the Prophit System forecasts creative volume and turns creative production into a predictable, accountable growth lever. Using a real client example, we walk through how creative demand is modeled against spend targets, why most brands under-produce creative, and how forecasting creative volume eliminates fire drills, guesswork, and performance decay. We cover: How t...
Jan 29, 2026•39 min
Most teams chase growth by adding new tools, dashboards, and AI. But real, durable growth doesn’t come from software, it comes from accountability. In this video, Taylor breaks down why growth stalls when no one owns the outcome, how daily operating rhythms turn forecasts into action, and what it actually takes to build a system that compounds over time. You’ll see why repetition beats reinvention, how strong teams close performance gaps faster, and why confronting friction is a prerequisite for...
Jan 27, 2026•13 min
Forecasts are always wrong — what matters is how fast you respond. In this episode, we break down how top teams diagnose a miss early, tighten the signal-to-action loop, and use daily accountability to get January (and the year) back on track.
Jan 22, 2026•45 min
In this episode, Taylor explains why the traditional creative loop—analyzing past ads, chasing CTRs, writing briefs, and hoping for better results—isn’t just inefficient, it’s actively hurting growth. Instead, we break down what actually works in 2026: treating creative like a supply chain, not a brainstorming exercise. You’ll learn: Why creative strategy is no longer about ideas or opinions How to tie creative output directly to financial forecasts and media spend What a “creative demand plan” ...
Jan 20, 2026•34 min
Is AppLovin actually incremental — or just another platform taking credit for demand that already exists? In this episode, we break down 8 real AppLovin incrementality tests run across live client accounts and share what the data actually shows. No speculation. No theory. Just results. We cover why AppLovin’s measurement is more conservative than most platforms, how its attribution model impacts reported performance, and why every test so far has come back positively incremental. From there, we ...
Jan 15, 2026•36 min
Most brands are chasing “perfect attribution.” That’s the wrong goal. In this episode of the Podcast, Tony sits down with Steve to break down what marketing measurement is actually for — and why accuracy with a capital-T isn’t just impossible, it’s counterproductive. Using the “Royal Cubit” metaphor, they explain why the purpose of measurement isn’t to find universal truth, but to create a shared reality that allows teams to make confident decisions at speed. From contribution margin at the busi...
Jan 13, 2026•35 min
The last five years of DTC forced brands through extreme conditions—easy money, explosive growth, brutal pullbacks, rising CAC, tariffs, and shrinking consumer demand. In this presentation from the Commerce Roundtable, Taylor Holiday breaks down why those pressures weren’t the end of DTC—but the catalyst for its next evolution. Taylor introduces the “Flow Era”: a new phase where winning brands stop chasing easy growth and instead master cash flow, product-led expansion, operational discipline, a...
Jan 08, 2026•44 min
In this episode of the Podcast, we break down the three things brands must get right to win in 2026—based on real performance data, post-BFCM learnings, and what top-performing brands are already doing differently. Richard is joined by Luke to unpack the foundational shifts shaping the next era of ecommerce growth. As rising costs, tighter margins, and increased competition redefine the landscape, winning brands aren’t doing more—they’re doing the right things better. We cover: Why system integr...
Jan 06, 2026•31 min
2026 won’t be an evolution of commerce—it will be a reset. In this episode, Taylor and Richard unpack 26 predictions that will reshape commerce in 2026, exploring how AI becomes the foundational layer for shopping, work, creative, media buying, and decision-making itself. This isn’t about tools or tactics. It’s about what happens when machines stop assisting humans—and start replacing human judgment entirely. You’ll hear why: AI isn’t driving traffic to stores—it is the store Creative strategy, ...
Dec 30, 2025•31 min
Meta’s Andromeda algorithm didn’t just tweak performance it rewired how ads are delivered, scaled, and rewarded. In this episode of the Podcast, we break down insights from 53,000 ads, 147 brands, and $14.5M in BFCM spend to show how Meta now evaluates creative, bidding strategies, and content formats in a post-auction, AI-driven system. You’ll learn: Why creative volume exploded — and why it’s now required to scale How different bid strategies attract fundamentally different customers Why video...
Dec 23, 2025•35 min
Presented by:Fulfil : https://bit.ly/3KNjCYJ TaxCloud: https://bit.ly/49mKdnR Chargeflow: https://bit.ly/49mKfvZ You'll learn how to... -Connect marketing actions to financial outcomes-Combine qualitative planning with quantitative modeling-Create alignment across your finance and marketing teamsGet our system: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/contact...
Dec 18, 2025•55 min
The holiday shipping cutoff doesn’t end the year. It flips the calendar into Q5 — the six-week window where intent spikes, CPMs collapse, and the best customer cohorts of the year are born. In this episode of the Podcast, we break down why Q5 is the Super Bowl for health & wellness brands and how operators should think about acquisition, offers, and retention heading into January. Joining the conversation: Dean Brennan, CEO of Heart & Soil Dave Huffman, Co-Founder of Fifth Hammer Togethe...
Dec 16, 2025•46 min
In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down the uncomfortable truth most brands ignore: your marketing calendar not your spreadsheet—is the real driver of revenue. We walk through why forecasts consistently miss, how spending power actually shifts month to month, and the system top DTC brands use to tie marketing actions directly to revenue outcomes. You’ll learn how to: Build forecasts rooted in real marketing behavior Use spending power and event effect models to predict revenu...
Dec 11, 2025•36 min
In this episode, Taylor and Joy break down the real 2026 playbook for 7-figure ecommerce brands, and why copying 9-figure operators is one of the biggest mistakes you can make. Coming off BFCM, they unpack what actually happened for small brands and what it signals heading into the new year. You’ll learn: How to create “four peaks a month” using trends, cultural moments, and audience overlaps Why forecasting is an execution system not a prediction tool How aMER becomes your most reliable metric ...
Dec 09, 2025•31 min
How do high-performing ecommerce brands turn campaigns into predictable cash flow? In this episode, we break down the exact forecasting process we use at Common Thread Collective to consistently land within 0–10% of goal across dozens of brands. Growth Strategy Manager Brian Sakansky joins Richard to unpack how CTC builds forecasts, operationalizes them, and uses daily expectations to make real-time decisions that drive revenue and contribution margin. You’ll learn: Why most forecasts fail—and h...
Dec 04, 2025•35 min
In this episode of the Podcast, we break down the real story of BFCM 2025—from forecasting accuracy to media buying chaos, offer pivots, AppLovin’s breakout performance, and what this year’s results say about the broader consumer economy. Richard and Taylor walk through: The full BFCM data recap: +7% total revenue, +10% new customers, +13% contribution margin Why Saturday became the surprise winner of the weekend AppLovin outperforming expectations by 100%+ Meta delivery volatility, and why it’s...
Dec 03, 2025•26 min
Black Friday is three days away but there’s still time to tighten your strategy and avoid costly mistakes. In this episode of the podcast, the CTC team breaks down the 5 essential last-minute BFCM fixes every brand needs before the biggest weekend of the year. Whether you're behind on creative, unsure about spend pacing, or just want to sanity-check your plan…this is the checklist that will save your BFCM. What we cover: Locking spend to aMER targets Auditing & refreshing creative without pr...
Nov 25, 2025•29 min
In our first CFO Summit Taylor breaks down the Board, Budget, Bonus forecasting framework—CTC’s core system for building a clear, defensible, and aligned financial plan for 2026.This replay walks you through how high-performing ecommerce brands create scenario models that serve their board, their finance team, and their operators… all without losing focus during the busy BFCM season.In this replay, you’ll learn:-The 3 scenario model every CFO should build for 2026-How to anchor your plan in real...
Nov 20, 2025•1 hr 2 min
Meta’s new creative ranking systems are changing everything, and most brands have no idea how much it’s affecting their performance. In this episode, we break down exactly how Meta’s Black Box evaluates your ads, why your creatives are being grouped together, and why small variations (like hook swaps) no longer matter the way you think they do. Our Guest today is Reza Khadjavi, CEO at Motion, the creative reporting platform trusted by top DTC brands. What you’ll learn: Why Meta sees one ad even ...
Nov 18, 2025•1 hr 2 min
How do you set the right ROAS target on Meta heading into Black Friday and Cyber Monday? Most brands either guess… or use last month’s numbers and hope they hold. But BFCM behaves nothing like a normal period and the attribution windows prove it. In this episode, Tony and Steve walk through the real data behind Meta’s 7-day vs. 28-day click attribution, why value shifts dramatically in the weeks leading up to Black Friday, and how that should change your spend strategy right now. You’ll learn: H...
Nov 13, 2025•26 min
