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Erness What's Up?
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what's going on? You said you are a newbie. Welcome to the family. Welcome to the family. We're gonna have some some insightful conversations tonight, because where else would you go to get insightful conversations.
That's a fact.
Thank you for trusting us. That's a fact. That's a fact.
We're going to let.
Everybody get in here, let the family get in here.
We're gonna have a spirited conversation because there's a lot going on, and there's a lot to be explained, and there's a lot of confusion, a lot of anks, a lot of uncertainty, and so hopefully we can offer some clarity, some concise information that you can take with you tomorrow and going forward.
So that's what our job is here tonight.
This is e y State of Emergency Special edition for sure. For sure, so this is live. This is live, so we could definitely answer some questions here. This was Yeah, we wasn't expecting to go live. It wasn't expecting to have an episode this week, but what everything that's going on, felt that it was very timely and very important because I'm sure a lot of people lost a lot of money today in their in their portfolios, and there's a
lot of people that's nervous about different things. So we are going to provide you with a bunch of information. But before we start, ah man, this is more timely than ever invest fst. Yeah, this year is gonna be interesting. Yeah, for sure. The information and the relationships. The only thing that's gonna save you in this world. Get your tickets to invest Fast Investfest dot com the holy grail when it comes to networking and business and entrepreneurship. August twenty second,
in Atlanta, Judgia, and don't forget the book. You deserve to be rich. This is exactly why you deserve it. Also very timely. Yeah, so okay, I have opinions about this, So we're gonna bring We're gonna bring some very esteemed guests on any minute Friends of the show for sure, yep. But before we start, I want to just you know, say that I told you.
So that's what you're starting, all right? Which part? Which part did you tell him? Let's start there.
Well, I said that mass deportation would lead to an increase in home prices. And the New York Times actually just published an article two days ago about the increasing home prices because of mass deportation. They said one guy, they had, one guy in particularly, his home was his home build. The new home build was going up two hundred thousand dollars because of labor. Labor, that's an issue. That's one thing I told you about supply is The next thing that I I said is that tarris is
not a good idea. Mass scale tariffs is not a good idea. So I think it's important to understand why I think that. But it's just my opinion. But I mean, we lost one point six trillion dollars in the stock market today in the day. I guess a few other people feel that same way, but.
I think most economists felt that way.
Right, Like if you if you watched and you studied economists what they've been saying even pre election, right when they were looking at economic plans and they were saying tariffs like twenty nine out of thirty. I think some percentage like that were like, mass tariffs are a bad idea.
Even dan Obs yesterday.
Were saying, like after the rollout, this is worse than the worst case scenario.
Well, another thing I think is interesting is that there's really no rhyme or reason to this situation, Like even the explanation of how they decided the formula for the taroffs. No, we're still trying to figure that part out.
I looked it up. I looked it up. It's like some math equations. The New York Times put it in uh in the publication. Even that doesn't the equation doesn't make sense. I think the clearest way they're trying to say is that whatever they're that the United States is being charge, they're gonna give a reciprocal a tariff of half of that.
But that's not the case though, I know. And so they just made up a random They just made up random numbers and threw it at the board. I got the border here the board. Let's put it up. Let's put the board up. Let's put the board up. Yeah. So I mean just look at Japan, right, I mean forty six, So twenty four is not fifty forty six, right, So it's just a bunch of random like we're in. Colombia is ten to ten. So some countries they matched,
even some countries they did fifty. Some countries they did thirty. Some countries. There's really no set rhyme or reason behind how they actually got these tariffs. Vietnam ninety. Okay. What I also said earlier on social media was that you know, a lot of people Trump's thing is that it's retaliatory, and they tax us, they have tariffs on us. So I think it's important to actually have some level of understanding.
I said this on social media, but a lot of these terrifts was put in place after World War Two when we were trying to actually help rebuild the world really, but especially these Asian countries. That was I mean, they was damned and devastated tremendously from the war, right, so
that was a way. But America has the largest spending economy in the history of the world in so far economy, and the amount of money that we actually spend on exports far exceeds the amount that we The amount of money that we spent on imports far seas the amount that we spent on exports. So we spent three point two trillion dollars on exports, but around two trillion on exports three point two one imports, two trillion on exports, so that leaves a one point one trillion dollar deficit.
So the idea of like an i Fouri is not really a relevant conversation because we spend so much more on exports on imports, and that's everything from cars to fabrics, to furnitures, to games, you name it. The biggest continent that we that we import products from is Asia. China is the number one country, and then after that it's North America with Canada, and Mexico. So what ends up
happening is that when you have tariffs. Let's say it's a board game that's coming from Vietnam and Walmart is carrying it, so Vietnam doesn't pay more money, but what happens is that Walmart is gonna have to pay more money.
I think that is the confusion, and because that's been the message throughout the campaign, is that it's a tax on the country. It's a tax on the country. Set a tax, a tax on the country. People believe that a tariff is a tax on the country. What a tariff is is kind of what you're explaining right, Like, it won't be up to the country, It'll be on the person that is receiving the import.
The person that buys the products from the country.
Thing.
So then okay, so if a board game goes from ten dollars to twelve dollars, that they have to buy it. Now they're going to have to sell it. It's not going to be eighteen dollars, is going to be twenty two dollars when they sell it. Yeah, so that's why everything is going to go up because it's going to cost more money. Now, another thing that let.
Me just touch on that so to like even make it more clear for you. Right, let's use the Walmart example. Let's use the board game for example. That tariff that comes with the board game, Right, Walmart is going to have to do have a choice here, Right, They're either going to say, we're going to pay this tariff whatever the percentage is, or we're not.
Going to pay this tariff. And you know who's going to pay it, our customers.
And so when they put that price inside of whatever the product is, you pay more.
Yeah, but they still even if they pay it, they're still going to pay what I'm saying they have Walmart has to pay it, but the cost is going to be built into the product, which now the product pays more. So so then another theory is that, Okay, well this is going to force jobs back to America. Now, on theory, that's not That's not a bad theory. I want to
be non biased about this conversation. It's not a bad theory because we we we have outsourced manufacturing for decades and we are dependent on other countries and that that could lead to problems. Now, but the problem with this theory is that it's going obviously it's going to take a long time. You just can't build seven hundred factories in one month, right, So it's going to take a long time to actually build these factories. But it's the
first problem. That's the first problem. So there's going to be paying in that in that process. The second problem is that the labor. So I put it on Instagram, the price that it costs to build a car per worker in America is seventy dollars. The price that it
costs in Mexico is like six dollars an hour. So if you have to pay work, that's why the prices of houses are going up, because the amount of money that you can pay an undocumented immigrant is a lot lower than the amount of money that you would have to pay a union construction worker. I'm not saying what's right or wrong, right, that's not the base of this conversation.
I'm just saying that's just the actual fact. So if you have to pay somebody more money, once again, what do you think that that cost is going to go. That's going to go to the consumer because it's going to cost more money to get the job done. Another thing like using the auto industry as an example, but this is true to any Like there's companies now that make products in America, auto companies. There's no auto company that makes products in America that does not ship and
receive products from overseas to build the car. So when you build the car, you have to get an engine, you have to get a variety of different compacts. Those parts come from overseas. So now if you put tariffs on those parts, it's still going to raise the course of the car and a variety of the different things. So it's like, okay, well, why can't we get cheap parts made in America. Well, it's it's a pretty complicated problem, right because well that goes back to the labor as well.
That goes back to actually having the facilities to actually do it. There's a variety of different things that we've outsourced and we don't have Let's just be honest, we don't have a labor force that is built to build iPhones. Like nobody wants that's nobody wants to sit in a tech sweatshop for twelve hours a day.
Is yeah, this is not right around. This is just literally what's happening. And I saw the statistic, it was like, this makes perfect sense. Right, we let with yes, we are the number one consumer nation. Right, our GDP is twenty percent, right of the world's In twenty percent of the world's GDP belongs the United States. Right, we have five percent of the world's population, which means that we're always going to fall short on labor. The other part is that when we have the labor, we can't afford
to pay the labor. Right, So this is why you outsource jobs. Look at a company like Apple for example, today right had its worst day since the COVID pandemic started. Why Well, a lot of the factories and a lot of the products that they manufacture come from China. If you're going to put that heavy of attax on China, what do you think is going to happen into a.
Company like Apple's products?
Right, That nine hundred dollars phone is now going to be fifteen seventeen.
And then and then it's also a thing. By the time they build the factories, AI's robots are going to be doing the jobs anyway that's cost effective. But that's not helpful as far as getting American jobs. These jobs are not coming back to America because they're not they're outdated. Anyway. Eventually these jobs are not even gonna be done by
human beings anyway. So to have a long term trajectory on a short term job, it's not sustainable, Like human beings are not going to be manufacturing cars for too much longer. It doesn't make sense cars when you tail product, when you can have a robot do it, why would you have a human do it? So there's this bright side.
And while I'm watching all this knowing that, it's like, well, if it's going to be roboties, it's going to be a gentist. Well we've already been speaking about that, right, So the bright side is, yes, this pain right now, but we can see what the future is at it.
Right, we can kind of see like there's not going to be a human doing those jobs.
Right, whether you're talking about Apple, you're talking about Nike, you're talking about Walmart from a retail or a good side, those jobs are going to be done by robotics. We can agree on that. Yeah, go forward, and it's more cost effective to do that. So if we think about who's gonna pay for the labor, well, if we have machines doing the labor, then that labor course is gonna go down.
The labor course goes down, but the unemployment. So there we go. The number one thing is like, we're going to bring jobs back to America. Well that's not really bringing jobs back. If robots are assembling iPhones and robots are assembling cars, where's the jobs? Okay, Okay, Well let's since sometimes people need to hear it from other points of view, So we're going to bring our friend, the NBC corresponding and host Frank Collin.
What's up, what's going on?
What's going on?
What's up?
Man?
Man honored a pleasure to be back with It's not market Monday's Market Thursdays.
I guess you know, terror special, but it's really a pleasure to.
Always like listening to these conversations you guys have, especially when you kick off the show, because it just kind of gives everybody an insight of what you guys are thinking about, what's on your mind.
For sure, I appreciate that. And shout shout out to Ian. I know a lot of people in the chat. Ian is actually in the chat, y'all, so like you're asking for him, he's in the chat.
Shout out to salute.
Okay, So yeah, that it was up to end man, tell you what's up, don't get me up.
So, Frank, you work on you work at CNBC.
Right, So.
Okay. Sometimes people might think that I'm a little biased, but I would like, I'm sure anymore.
I'm reading the comments, Like for the first time I read comments and it was like, this is what you asked for or they're like you.
Were a dem I'm like, what side do they think you on?
At this point, It's mixed signals out there.
I'm on everybody.
I'm on the side recession.
I'm on the side we were on the side of the Green Party there. When I say Green party, that president, Yes, for sure. So Frank, you're.
Kind of listening to some of the conversation, right, Absolutely, you brought up the R word.
I didn't want to bring it up, but based on the things we're saying, the TV's are kind of pointing to it that No.
I mean, it's it's definitely I kind of tenuous situation. I mean we also what happened on the markets today. I think the Dow drop was sixteen hundred points. Huge drops for tech, huge drops are just about every part of the market. But I want to go back to what you guys were talking about about the terror formula, and I think that has a lot of people scratching their head. I would imagine some other countries scratching their head.
The Trump administration did say that they're doing reciprocal terror. Well, first off, that ten percent across the board tariff and reciprocal tariffs, but they said they have their own formula. So some of it's based on what other countries charge us, and then some of it's based on what they say are non tariff barriers like bad taxes and stuff like that. Ian Bremmer really smart guy when it comes in the National things, president of e RASOR group.
I think he's the founder as well.
He put out a tweet basically saying that the Trump administration they took the trade surplus with these country and then divided it by the exports, and that's how they came with the numbers, like for the EU, that's how they came with thirty nine percent. So you know, he was very critical of it, but I think doesn't matter the formula right now, just the levels of it right now are making things, you know, I think, making everybody
nervous across the world. So one of the the estimates that I've been really leaning on is from Ernst and Young. They see inflation going up one percent GDP going down one percent in twenty twenty five. That's basically what a lot of people call stackflation. That's prices going up but growth going down. More than likely wages stay in flat. And we all know when prices go up your wages stay flat, Well, you're losing money essentially, and that's what a lot of people talk about. When you talk about
investing in gold or bitcoin. You want to invest in an appreciating asset, and a lot of people feel like a dollar is actually a depreciating asset. So there is a lot of danger going forward. Nobody wants to talk about recession, but it's certainly one of the dangers. I believe JP Morgan raised their estimate from twenty percent up to thirty five percent. We're talking about a chance of recession. I've talked to a lot of CEOs about this, and a lot of them say, I just got to sit still and.
To have more clarity, and I don't think we have more clarity yet.
Well, that's what I wanted to ask you, because we're going to make this a group discussion. We got another surprise. But you talk to a lot of c oh right, you talk to a lot of intelligent people, and you talk to a lot of wealthy people. What is the sentiment of those people that you're talking to?
Confusion man. And by the way, you guys are too wealthy and smart guys I'll talk to. But confusion.
No, I'm not. I'm legend.
Just a lot of confusion. A lot of people aren't quite sure how this is all going to play out. Some of them are confused. Why why are we putting tariffs on Canada? You know what I mean, our neighbor to the north that we depend on. Why are we
putting these traffs on Mexico? We remember President Trump during his first term, he's the one that negotiated the usmc A. So the reason why some of these these goods are moving back and forth is because he signed onto a deal that incentivized companies to look at Canada, the United States and Mexico is one block now the usmc A, and to build in Mexico and to building Canada. So
that agreement incentivized a lot of them. One of the prevalent things I'm hearing from a lot of CEOs is that we've build our supply chain, we build our factories, we build whatever we're building for decades. We're not building for this administration. We're not building for the next four years. So how do you make decade long decisions when you know this person's going to be in the office for four years and you don't know what the next person may think.
They may have a totally different view on trade altogether?
This is an interesting time, right, So we talked about statflation, right, inflationary environments that keeps coming up. Does this feel like a negotiating tactic because we've been hearing that a lot over the past couple of days. Is this negotiated tactic to say, all right, let's get everybody to the table so now we can finally figure out a tariff system
that works for us. I mean, it feels like a waiting game in a sense where it's like we're gonna feel some pain, and he's campaigned on that there's gonna be short term pain.
We don't know how long short term is.
It could be relative, but eventually these countries will come asking for a negotiation so that this can get settled because uncertainty he doesn't help anyone.
Does it feel that way to you?
That's not the tone that I felt like the President was striking.
He didn't seem like he was looking for deals or diplomacy, at least that's what I took away from when he was talking at the Rose Garden the other day. It didn't sound like he wanted to make a deal. It didn't sound like he wanted to be diplomatic. It didn't sound like this was a ploy. Sounded like this is what he really believed his administration should do, especially when it came to those ten percent tariffs. Now some of the other tariffs, I imagine there would be some room
for negotiation. Earlier today, I was talking to Carlos Scudierra's former Commerce secretary under George W.
Bush.
He said he was in China, and according to the people he spoke to, he's speaking to a lot of high level people. He didn't tell me exactly who, but talking to a lot of high level people that they say they're nervous. There hasn't been any backchanneling as far as they know. They haven't heard about a lot of backchanneling going on. They're really kind of confused about some
of these tactics. You often hear President Trump say he has a good relationship with she, and then you see essentially fifty four percent tariffs on China, which is obviously going to shake up a lot of some apply chains, a lot of businesses. Apple's Won lou Lemons, one dollar trees, and other stock hit hard like those extensive things come from China. So I didn't get the impression there was a lot of deals on the table at least now.
Now maybe the President's administration have a trick up their sleeve. But you keep hearing these conflicting reports. Some people say their sources are telling them the President wants to make a deal, he wants to negotiate. Other people are saying a deal isn't really what he's looking for unless people make very substantial, substantial commitments to move their manufacturing to the US.
So we have five thousand people on this live hit the like button and share. So this is just a random lib that we did that lets me know that people have a lot of anxiety, but this is the golden question that they want to have before we bring our other guests into kind of make it a group conversation stocks and we're going to talk about our opinions. But you work in CNBC, so on stocks all day. You talk stocks all day, right all day? Stocks? Where
we at with the stock market? This is this going to be like a two thousand and eight thing with this is just the beginning and we had it for thirty percent thirty five percent stock market crash?
Why are you saying things like that? Man, we can't have that out there.
I know, Man, you're a shot. He's putting the bad juju.
We got to speaking juju out there.
But on a serious note, I mean, isn't that the fear? I think that's the fear that a lot of people have. That's why today's see stocks like Progressive Insurance up one and a half percent, all stayed up like two percent. People are going putting their money in companies that you know are gonna make money no matter what, No matter what happens. You got to have your car insurance, you know what I mean, no matter what happens. Your doctor Pepper I think was up two percent. You're still going
to drink a soda, you know what I mean? Like, you're not going to stop drinking soda because you're making less money or your business isn't doing as well. Some things people are going to continue to spend on. So is the setup for something like that to happen? I mean, I think all the smart people I'm talking to say yes. I'm gonna start with my man, Jim Kramer from Mad Money. He's saying, put some money on the sidelines, put some cash on the sidelines, when generally he's saying, be invested
in the market. Even he's saying it's a little bit too shaky. I'm talking to a lot of other traders. They're saying, right now, it's just not a great environment to trade it. A couple of weeks ago, a lot of people thought we had hit a tradable bottom. The fact that we were hitting the bottom until we got this tariff announcement. Then when we get some clarity and maybe some more volatility. But it feels like there might be more volatility ahead. When you're seeing megacap tech just
sell off the way it did today. I think the mag seven lost about one trillion dollars worth of market value. When you see that happen, it's hard for the market to really gain its footing. Remember those stocks are about fifty five percent of the spy about fifty five percent of the Triple Q. So I mean, with that kind of concentration, those stocks under pressure, it's really hard for
the market just to really find its footing. And you got to remember those stocks they're not necessarily tariff sensitive, but not necessarily inflation sensitive, but they.
Are growth sensitive.
Companies need me to feel confident in their ability to grow, to spend money on cloud computing, to spend money on AI agents, and take these different steps. And if you're unsure about the economy and what the administration is doing, you're not gonna make those kind of investments. If you're a CEO, it's hard to go to the board and say I want to spend X amount of money to move my stuff to the cloud or to put these AI agents in you don't even know.
What's coming up.
Yeah, it's interesting when you talk about the Max seven that one company that would probably be right on the outside of that, Netflix was almost positive today they might have closed positive P ANDNG like.
Stocks like that make sense because.
No matter what, you're gonna need your household supplies. You said the tradable bottom, which is interesting because we all knew that April second was coming and we circled that date, and obviously we saw what happened.
But now it feels like maybe.
April ninth is one of those dates that we now have to circle with the retaliatory terriffts coming back our way from all these countries that we are now putting taxes on.
What's been a sediment around the ninth. Now is the day that we all.
Have to watch because we thought that was a tradable bottom a few weeks ago.
Yesterday happened next Wednesday.
Who knows, man, I mean, you gotta watch the fourth, the tenth.
I mean, there's still the potential for pharmaceutical tariffs, for semiconductor chip tariffs, you know, lumber, copper. I mean just there's so many different areas that can face tariff. So I don't know if there's one date you can point to. I think the next date. I think a lot of people have it circled on their calendar, specifical when I'm talking to people who manage money or who try to trade.
As actually made the seventh, that's the FED decision. So a lot of people are starting to think that the FED might have to get active. Previously, it was thought very low chance of the FED cutting in May. I think it was JP Morgan and came out and said they believe that the next cut would come up in July. I'm talking to a lot of people, a lot of rumblings who think that the Fed, the FED officials ja
pale everybody else. They may feel like they need to get ahead of this whole tariff situation and cut as soon as May, which would certainly give the boost to the market. I don't know if you guys ever know this guy, Mark Smith from wellsbarg Wood Buyer, there's a great guy. He's a guest on my show. He came on and he was talking about two areas of the market that he thinks not recession proof, not tariff proof, but generally resistant to it. And one of them was
financials or another rate cut would significantly help the financials. I'm talking to big banks like JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, Los Fargo City and stuff like that. So to me, it's I think May seventh is the date, and we'll probably have a lot of volatility until then. I think the only certainty that we may get is from the Fed that they're gonna cut.
Let's let's bring let's bring our other guests on Friends of the Show. Friend of the Show, Caleb Still.
I didn't know Frank Collin was gonna be here. This is a full party. Thanks for having man.
We're just hanging out down in Miami.
Actually, Chef Kwame, Oh yeah, nice, Your monks a great panel. Man is a good dude, salad salad guy. So yeah, Caleb Good, Friend of the Show, chief editor of Investopedia. So I'm sure a lot of people have been hitting yes sight trying to find out what tariffs are and what when the recession is coming and stuff like that. So from a historical standpoint, right, can you give us some historical insight on tariffs and why America for the
last seventy years has been more free trade. We haven't pushed this button of pariffs, but uh, because people a lot, you know, a lot of that's that's a common theme. People like, well, we've been getting ripped off for a long time. They can't understand why we haven't done this a lot earlier. Right, But there's there's a there's a reason why we haven't done this.
Yeah, well we actually have and it was this smooth holly tariff that kicked this whole thing off about one hundred years ago. So we've been a tariff nation. And in the early days of America Alexander Hamilt, they all favored tariffs in order to raise some money for the government, but never to this extent where we're being we're actually putting a consumptive tax on our own citizens to pay for this to raise money because they want to cut taxes. This is a very, very weird way of doing it.
We have never had tariffs to this degree. But you've got to remember Trump one point zero, there was over three hundred billion dollars worth of tariffs. The Biden administration came in and added more tariffs on top of that, but when you look around the world, it's just never
been at this level. And the fact that we're coming out with this ten percent cross the board tariffs, which really, as I said, is a consumption tax for consumers here in the United States, that's a very big precedent right there. And I think it changes the entire global world order, and it changes the way capital markets are going to work. And I'll say it for this reason when you can't and Frank was alluding to it a little bit. The
FED meeting is super important. But you got to wonder if this level of tariffs and this intensity is intentional by the Trump administration that wants lower interest rates. He has said that back on the campaign trail and all along. So by forcing the economy to slow down, it forces the Fed's hand to lower interest rates so that our debt payments, which we make every quarter as a country,
get reduced a little bit. We spend the second moused amount of money we spend as a government is on servicing our debt, which is over at trillion dollars just servicing the debt. So if we can lower that, then there's going to free up more money to do force deportations, to build walls, to do whatever else is on the agenda of this administration.
Yeah, it feels like is there a goal I know there's been a lot of talk what is the goal number or is there a goal number that they're trying to receive from the terriffs?
Right, we obviously know that government spending and those.
Was created to reduce that, but it feels like the uncertainty around the number, it kind of has no rhyme or reason. So from your perspective, is there from the deficit which is what thirty seven trillion?
Now, is this the best method forward?
Right?
Like we I know Shoty alluded to it earlier.
Right, sometimes you can't pull the bend aid off too fast. Does it feel like this has happened? And obviously is this the best method going forward?
No, but it is a method, and it is sort of taking a sledgehammer to a you know, to a small nail, because this is actually hurting lower to middle income families more than anybody out there. It's that Peter Navarro was a Trump advisor, says it's going to raise six trillion dollars, not anytime soon. Right, These companies are going to pull back on their shipments with our companies here in the Knights States aren't going to order more. So you're not going to feel the impacts of that.
Who's going to feel it? Consumers who have to go to the grocery store, load up like they do every single week, feed their families, right, buy supplies to fix up their small business, order in inventory so they have enough inventory in their small business to be able to make it going forward. So this is more of a punishment against consumers and households in the United States with the intended impact of making people and other countries pay
their fair share. The fact is we've had a pretty strong economy up until about two or three months ago that was in pretty good shape. Four percent unemployment GDP at two point eight percent, right, inflation was coming down. It wasn't to where I wanted to be, to where the Fed would like it to be, but it was
on its way moving a little bit lower. So this is kind of like a complete change of the global world order, and it calls into question things like the sacredness of the tenure treasury right, the most widely held, most saved asset in the world. Right, people own our debt because they believe that our country will grow and that will pay it back. Well, this is a big shot at that right now. And it's also a big
shot at the dollar. So if the dollar becomes you know, less desired and doesn't become the reserve currency anymore, which we're a long way from that. Which if you lose the yield the ten year treasure field and you lose the dollar, you lose the structure of our capital markets, and that's very concerning.
Well, this is some anybody can chime in. But so this is this is what is a little confusing because Trump has been he's been obsessed with tariff since the
nineteen eighties. So I don't know if this is like just a personal crusade of his, like you know, kind of like a bucket listing that he just was just obsessed with his whole entire life and now he's just like, I just want to do this because like you said, I mean I it's if this continues, then we're most likely head to a recession, right, So for presidents don't like to be presidents during recession. So why would you personally thank the economy for no reason? Like we weren't
in a bad spot. You said, we were actually in a good spot as far as the market, the unemployment, a variety of different things. Was actually, he's actually inherited a pretty good situation. Now that the debt is an issue,
for sure, but it wasn't needed. It wasn't needed to do it in this fashion, and a lot of people is going to cause a lot of pain, and like you said, lower to middle income people are going to feel that pain the most, right because it's like, okay, if you got to pay extra five hundred dollars for something that's that's inconvenient if somebody is making forty thousand dollars has to pay five hundred dollars for something that that's life changing, that continued to be life changing, right,
So yeah, I'm trying to figure this out. So you guys, you know what is your thought process? You brought up the interest rates, that's interesting. But outside of that, why would some why would he do this? Like why would he have this much pain so early in his presidency for no apparent reason?
Frank, you want to take it first, Not glad, Gil, you're a start.
Okay, Here's what.
I think and this is my opinion, not Investipedia's opinion. But I think that they want to burn it down, you know, or at least slow the economy and take it into a recession, bring the market way down, and then through whatever mechanisms, either through private privatization, which is
where a lot of this is going. When you look at a lot of the government job cuts, privatization so that those that are in close can line their pockets and get rich as they rebuild it back up, but through private means, right, and then redistribute that wealth among the people that are going to help them get re elected in the future. So I think that's part of it.
I think there's also a let's burn it down so we can build it back up and say, what a great job we did rebuilding this economy which was in tatters. It is so rare you mentioned it Vershot, It is so rare for a president to come into office over the last four decades. It's not in a recession. This president inherited actually a pretty strong economy. Biden inherited an economy that was coming out of the COVID pandemic. And even the last two presidents they entered they entered the
White House in very difficult times for the economy. Not this time around. So may burning it down and then rebuilding it, say we fixed this whole thing, and look how.
We did it.
Meanwhile, a lot of it's been privatized and very few people are getting very rich off of this.
When I look at it, it seems to me, again this is my opinion on CNBC, it seems like to me, a president's trying to establish a legacy. You know, he felt like he was supposed to have back to back terms. He's come back into office.
Now.
One way to establish a legacy is to reshape global trade and put your mark on that. He's someone who has done business all around the world, whether it be casinos or golf courses. His first administration, he did hire a lot of business leaders. This time it's even a bigger concentration of business leaders and people with very.
Specific thoughts about the global economy.
As Treasury Secretary Scott Besson's a great example of that, somebody who's just seen as a global thought leader when it comes to finance. So I think for him it's really his chance to put his stamp not only on the presidency the second time around, but the entire world. And I think you often hear him say when he's talking to business leaders about things that he sees his accomplishments. He goes, Trump got it done. Nobody else could get it done. People are saying that Trump got it done.
So a lot of it seems like his legacy, at least in his mind, is at play. And you have to remember, this is somebody, based on what we saw on reports and ourselves on TV, that faced, you know, a near death experience, possibly being assassinated. He's an older gentleman. He's close to about eighty years old himself. So when you get to that stage as we all get older, we start to think more about what am I leaving behind?
How are people going to see me? What accomplishments do I have?
In this general seems I'm just say that's a very good point. That's actually both of you. That's very insightful what you just said. Because he puts his name on everything, right, He's the guy that puts his name on stuff that he doesn't even own, so like Trump, Tao and Trump, Like, he's very big on branding and he's very big on legacy.
So he said this before as far as like if he can be the person that literally reshapes world trade from like how it's been for the last hundred years in a free trade market, and if he can, if he can, and now it can be like the Trump Trade Plan for the world. Branding wise, I never I haven't really thought about it like that, But that makes a lot of sense. That actually makes a lot of sense.
It's kind of like what he alluded to, like what you were saying. He's had this ideology since the eighties. It was that Johnny Carson interview where he's sitting there talking about trade. But even watching them today, it feels like there's a certain level of delusion, right. I think Josh Brown said it today, like he's either incredibly right
or he's going to be incredibly wrong about this. As the market is tanking right, the Dall's down fifteen hundred points, you know, reporters are asking him about it, and he said, no, the market's looking great.
There's going to be a boom in the market. And it just feels like a level of delusion.
Even to the point where we're talking about making jobs come back to America and kill before you we would kind of lou into it, like does that even feel fathomable at this point?
Right?
The amount of time that it would take to build some of these jobs. I know Nike took a crazy hit Apple, Does this feel like something that is even feasible over the next five years, because yeah, ten fifteen years, you can build factory, you can build industry, but by that time it won't These companies are going to take such a financial hit people, the customers. Obviously, if the companies is taking a hit, they're going to raise prices.
People are going to feel the impact. Is it even feasible to do bring these jobs back?
Well, we've only got like thirteen million manufacturing jobs in this country right now. That's down from like twenty million. Even the President alluded to it himself. But there's a reason a lot of people don't want those jobs. They don't pay that well. They're really hard jobs, right, They're very difficult, they're physically difficult, they require a lot of hours, they don't pay that great. There's no more pensions anymore.
So who was doing those jobs. A lot of the people that immigrated into the United States, the same people he wants to send out of the United States, were actually taking those jobs, right. So getting building the factories is one thing. Creating factories where you can pay a really livable a real livable wage, where somebody can raise a family on it and maybe god forbid, own a
home at some point in time. That's asking a lot of companies who are measured on a quarterly basis based on their bottom line, right, they are responsible to shareholders. So when you have a shareholder mentality, right, and you have to answer to them every single quarter and increase your you know, your projections and your your forecast going forward and keep beating the street. And Frank knows as well, well,
you're not going to pay the best wages. You're going to You're going to find the cheapest source of labor that you can. And that cheap source of labor has been Mexico, that has been Vietnam, that has been China, that has been anywhere but here. So you're asking companies to pay a lot more for that. And by putting tariffs on products coming into this country and now the retaliatory of tariffs, you're not solving that part of the problem.
The part of the problem that we have to solve is are they responsible to their shareholders where they're responsible to their communities, or are they responsible to the United States to provide living wages for people so they can raise families and disconnect.
You can't have it both ways. You can't well, I mean, you can't have a capitalist society and then say well, we want everything to work fairly. That's not how capitalism works. This isn't. This isn't. You can't be anti socialism and anti communism and say we want everybody equal. We want to know the capitalist society is to make the most money as possible by spending as least money as possible. They're not doing anything illegal. It's not good business to
spend billions of dollars more than you need to. It's more efficient to get the job done in those other countries because you can pay the people less. This is I mean, we don't have to sugarcoat it, right. It's more efficient to get the job done in other countries because you can pay the people less and you can produce the products quicker, less red tape. You don't have to go through regulation. They don't. It's a variety of
different factors. It's just like if you're building a home, it's more effective to have illegal immigrants build a home because they don't have health benefits, they're not part of a union, and you can pay the people. Let's now, is that morally right or wrong? You can make an argument on both sides, because on one side you can say it's morally wrong. On the other side, you can say it's better than what they would get in the
other country. That's why they came to this country. So it's not It may not be what you're looking for, but you're not them, So this is not I don't understand this, but this is easy for people. If you haven't employed somebody, you don't have a full appreciation of this. If you are an employer, then you look at you look at things differently. So none of these companies are going to be happy about spending more money.
Yeah right, I'm gonna come to you because you've been You've spoken to CEOs. Right, we looked at the first quarter, it was a negative quarter, and now you know we're starting quarter too. I would CEOs even looking at their p and ls at this point, right with the tariffs that every day, it's que to how people going to even be reporting their earnings. Obviously you're gonna have to you're losing You're gonna lose employees, right, you're gonna make
less money. What does this look like in the CEO world when Q two ends in June and this number comes in, Well, we've.
Already seen CEOs just respond to some of this before the terist were announced. Their guidance is pretty weak, which often leads to their stock not doing well after earnings. Even if the numbers for their earnings they're reporting are fine for the quarter of their reporting are fine, the guidance is weak. That leads to us off in some of the stock. So that's one of the reasons we've seen a lot of volatility, but very quickly, I want
to go back to Rashad's point for just a minute. Yet, we're a capitalist country, but we're not pure it's not pure play capitalist situation. Remember back during the Great Financial Crisis, we built out the banks, So if we were a capitalist country, the banks they made a lot of risky bets.
They lost.
They bet on housing, uh in the mortgage backed securities, and they put them together in a way that just wasn't solvent. They lost. So why don't Why didn't we just let the banks go bankrupt? Because that's not that's not going to work states because people have their money in the banks. Why don't we let the auto industry go bankrupt? Well, the audiancestry has tentacles and so many other industries. Like we're seeing right now with the tarots,
it'd being impacted. If all the automakers went out of business, it would lead to restaurants going out of business, the trucking companies that ship the parts going out of business. So we're not a pure play capitalist country. And I think that's what a lot of CEOs are trying to figure out, at least the ones I'm talking to. They're trying to balance understanding the president's objective as much as
they can. A lot of them in that they're pretty confused about the terror, specifically with Mexico and Canada when he's the one that did USMCA, and doing what's right for the company and trying not to lay off workers and trying to keep products on the shelves and things like that. So it's multi tiered. I feel like they're almost as confused as we are, except, as you mentioned, Rashan, they have the responsibility of a workforce, of a board
of shareholders that they have to try to balance. So I think this earning season that's starting up in about a week and a half is going to be pretty interesting. The banks come up first, so the bank's going to give us a lot of insight into loan demand, the willingness of companies to go public, the credit situation, I mean, a whole lot of things. We're gonna get a great read on the economy. I think it's the first day. I think it's City and JP Morgan that report. Don't mind,
we need to correct me. I might be wrong about that, but two big banks will give us a lot of insight.
So okay, So let's go to this part because this is the opportunities in every crisis. So I do want to because you know when I came when I when I used to be a financial advisor, and I started during the I literally started my career during the Great Recession. It was actually a good time to start because I had nowhere to go but up, and I was putting clients in mutual funds and five twenty nine plans, in
a variety of different things. And a lot of these people had never invested in the stock market before, so it was the first time invested in the stock market. They was investing when the stock market was down thirty five percent, and it worked out for them. So there is opportunities in every crisis, and this is definitely a crisis. So let's let's let's go to let's go through these different ones. Flank Frank, Flank, Think, Think, Think black Rock COO.
He made interesting commentary about bitcoin, and this is interesting. Bitcoin is interesting because usually bitcoin, traditionally, previously it wasn't directly tied to world economies and the US dollar, but now we see it's like a direct correlation. When the stock market goes down, bitcoin goes down. They don't move opposite. Gold has been going opposite. But bitcoin is pretty much like a tech company at this point. It moves as
the stock market moves, and today it was down. But do you see a world where this is actually beneficial for bitcoin with the dollar because the dollar went down also, that's another thing, Harris, are actually supposed to make the dollars stronger, from my understanding, But in this case, the dollar is actually decreasing, right, And I guess a lot of that is just world sentiment that's kind of turning negative across America. But then variety of other things that
you talked about. So okay, in this world of this is hurtful to America for sure, what could this be beneficial for bitcoin?
Okay, I'll hep.
You want to take it first, I'll take it first. I mean, we know that fifty odd million people own crypto in some way, shape or form, But we also know that the top one percent owned the most of it, right, and a lot of bitcoin is owned by publicly traded companies like the micro strategies of the world that are basically bitcoin treasuries. Even Tesla is like a bitcoin treasury, so could be good just because of the scarcity aspect of it all. And we used to live in this
world called Tina. Right, there is no alternative to stocks because interest rates were solow. There was just stocks. Right, You'd be a fool to invest in anything else. Until bitcoin came along after the Great Financial Crisis. Well, now you have this alternative asset. But for most people, they don't know how to turn bitcoin whatever bitcoin owling is
they have into usable fiat to pay their utility bill. Right, we still aren't at that level where it's just something I can just oh, I'll just Apple pay with my bitcoin right now. Now you can in a very few cases. But when we're talking about the people that are going get hurt the most by rising prices, stagflation, a potential recession, higher tariffs, bitcoin is not going to be the answer for them. So won't have that type of demand, that mass demand, like we thought it would at some point
in time. At the same time, this is a deregulatory administration that has been promising to stock file bitcoin added to the reserves mind its own bitcoin, and I bet you will eventually let it into our four to one case fidelity all that announced that today or yesterday. You can now have bitcoin in your four to one k if you want. So. It is going to become a little bit more ubiquitous, but it's not going to become
more useful. And I think right now we need a really useful currency and a dependable currency to get through any type of crisis that we're going to go through. It's not going to be the answer for the masses. It's going to be the answer for the very rich. And that's another thing that makes me wonder. Like usually the stock market falling, you know, into a correction, was a stoplight for President Trump and Trump one point zero,
it's not anymore right. The tenure treasury yield spiking used to be oh, you know, maybe we've gone too far here, it's not anymore. Why is that they're deep into cryptocurrencies in that administration in person, the Trump coin, the Millennia coin, the family, all the different ETFs that they have associated with their coins and their meme coins. Maybe they don't really care about what has been traditional ways of growing wealth in this country because they're into it digitally, and
again they're just here for now. I don't know.
It definitely feels and this is why I feel like there's something that that savior complex is coming into play at some point.
It's just a matter of time, right, There was a time in Trump one point.
Oh, like you said, if the market was going down, it was a concerning issue. Right to hear him say that the market is looking great as a tal is down fifteen hundred points and the NASSAQ is down a thousand points, it's concerning, right. And the people that you said it's going to affect, and I'll let both of
you guys can answer, are the middle class. Right, So when we're talking about the jobs coming back, and we're talking about living wages, we're talking about government funding being cut, we're talking about grow government programming being cut, that directly affects the middle class. And so obviously a lot of people who are watching him tonight are part of that class.
What is the solace that they can take in this at this point?
Man, I mean, is there any solace right now? I think it's hard to find any solace right now. I'm not sure about that one.
Man.
I'm gonna jump off of Kelp's point really quick. Kelp, to your point, Trump family is deep into crypto. I mean, Eric Trump, I think a couple maybe it was yesterday came out the headline saying that he was thinking about turning the family business, pivoting it filly into crypto. He's launching a bitcoin mining company, just doing a lot with cryptocurrencies. Overall, I think when it comes to bitcoin, least for right now, I don't think it's the moment for bitcoin. This is
again my personal opinion, Caleb. Again to your point, a lot of those bigcoin buyers, they were institutional buying, as they were.
Companies and things like that.
Right now, people are trying to de risk their balance sheets and de risk their portfolios, whether you're a tech company like a Tesla or you're an institutional big bank doing it right now. And also they found their new thing, private credit. You saw a private credit ETF come out.
So I think a lot of the interest when it comes to institutional buyers is private credit, which is basically private debt, loaning people money at high rates with basically higher levels of like collateral or you know, like you buy a house, you might put down ten percent, Well, a private credit deal might be you have to put down fifty percent or give collateral up to fifty percent.
So that's becoming a lot more of a lucrative part of the market and also an area where they're trying to get They're hoping to get retail investors through ETFs, but institutional investors, a lot of money managers are pushing them towards private credit. So it seems like Wall Street, you know, they just find new things. Whether back in the day it was mortgage backed securities, now it's private credit for while this is a bitcoin ETF. So I just don't know if right now it's the time for bitcoin.
I'm gonna be honest, I'm not a big cryptocurrency person. I hold some just to diversify my portfolio, but I'm not really sure which one's gonna win. I don't think any of us know which one's gonna win long term, or bitcoin will even be a thing ten years from now. Maybe it'll be all about a theorem or solana.
I'm not really sure, right.
So, what is the asset besides your home that working families can hold on to to try to continue to build wealth and pass it on to jet their generations. We've been teaching people for fifty sixty seventy years about the stock market. First it was mutual funds, right then it was index funds. Then it was ETFs, right, and now there's half as many stocks on the publicly traded
markets then there used to be. Why is that, frank, Because it's a pain in the ass to be a publicly traded company managing quarter to quarter right, shareholders up your butt, increasing your forecast going forward? What's wrong with your profit margins? You know, how come you don't have enough DEI or whatever. It's a really hard thing to be a publicly traded company in this country. There's a ton of regulation. Now they're going to remove some of that.
And at the same time, you know, if there's not going to be if there's going to be less publicly traded companies, and Wall Street keeps inventing new things to sell us in the form of private creditor or private equity in an ETF rapper, which is like, you know, my friend Tyrone says, it's like putting a putting a Ferrari engine in a in like a buick, right, It's like you're not going to get the most out of it.
What are they doing that for? They're finding different ways to securitize things because the things that we have grown up investing in that where the building blocks of our wealth are becoming scarcer, and now the public markets, I'm afraid, are becoming less trustworthy.
Yeah, I don't.
I don't have an answer.
Obviously, your your personal residence is a great investment because you can live in it, and ideally it also appreciates the other areas. I'm not sure. I think it just really depends. I mean, education is always a great investment, but the question is what is that education? College doesn't
seem to make the same sense, and once did. I know a lot of people that graduate in debt and aren't really on a trajectory to ever get out of debt with the money that they're going to make if they plan to live even just a middle class lifestyle. You know, it's one thing if you go to college and you're going to live in a shack somewhere and save every penny, But who really wants to do that after spending four years to college.
I do believe that stocks are still I still believe the stock market is going to eventually return to some sort of a mean return. I don't know if it'll be the twelve I'll.
That you men outside of stocks though, yeah, outside of stocks, don't you.
Think stocks are a great investment, especially over the long term, if you're willing to hold. Like all my show, I often question people they go, I'm a long term investment. I'm like, okay, but this is a show for people looking to make some short term and intermediate moves. But in general, holding stocks over the long term is the safest investment by far has been.
Yeah, for sure, Okay, I'm glad you guys said that because they called me a doomsday alarmist a lot of times. But mean, thanks Frank for being honest. It's pretty consistent. How do you feel about investing right now as far as companies. Are you deploying money into the market right now or are you Because I'm always putting money into the market. My theory is that you have to force yourself to put money into the stock market every single month. That's my theory. So I'm a big believer in dollar
cost averaging. Now, sometimes you put money in some things, you might not put money in other things. Right Like, I might see an opportunity where it's like, Okay, well, I think that it's time to be a little bit more conservative. I'm just gonna put money in S and P five hundred this month. I'm not gonna put money in stocks or I'm not fully confident in Apple. I'm
not putting money in Apple. I might put money in QQQ, which Apple is a part of, but I feel more confident because it's diversified amongst a variety of other different companies besides one particular company. Or SMH is down a lot right now, So maybe SMH. I feel confident and putting some money in US and made show riding it out. That doesn't mean that it's not going to because I also firmly believe that we're headed to a recession if
we don't, if this doesn't change. Let me preference this by saying this, if this teriff policy does not change, if it, if it does not change, we are we are going to be in a recession. And if we go into a recession, we're going to a bear market. And if we go into a bear market, stocks are going to fall lower than what they are now. I think that's that's my that's my thesis. But what are you doing?
I think that's safe to say right now.
Like I said, the number one catalyst is uncertainty, and that's what we're seeing consistently over the past couple of weeks.
So you always have to have your targets, right. So, like we talk about in video, I know Ian said one O five's the number.
Well it hit one O three today, but it's headed to ninety.
Just well even that's fine, right. If I see it at ninety, it's even more attractive to me. Is it a company that I believe in? Is it a company I'm going to hold long term? It's a company that I have three thousand shares in. I'm not going anywhere, right, and so I'll buy more.
I told you.
An attractive company for the past two months has been Netflix. We saw how they reported after their last quarter. Obviously, what they're doing with live sports and the WWE, we actually witnessed it in the first hand.
I like that company. How will tarists affect that?
I'm not sure how it will affect it long term, but I see that at a discount.
I like it.
The other one is meta, right obviously, what they're doing and the role that they're going to play in connectivity throughout the world, not just here in America, and the global landscape that they have I like them too. And so when they get down to attractive prices. I know in videos just dropped thirty two percent. Apple dropped twenty percent today. The companies that you liked and you were waiting for them to be twenty five percent down from
their all time highs, Well they're here. Will they go lower? They could, but they still attractive companies. Those are the companies that will lead this economy that you already allude to, Caleb, when you're talking about fifty five percent of the SMP is in the max seven, right, So these companies are gonna lead our economy.
They're at discounted prices.
Dollar clust averaging is important, but you're staying in these companies for the long term. Those are those are great companies, so you stay on. Now are we doing options on some of them?
In video?
It gets down to ninety?
I like it because I can see out to twenty twenty seven, right, So when I start seeing twenty twenty seven calls where it's deep like December twenty twenty seven, I like that. I'm always using time as a barrier to help me fight off volatility.
What about puts? Puts?
As know, I see everybody in chat. I feel like everybody's doing that right.
Now, right everybody kept circling April second. They're looking at April second as a date. They know that taffs are going to get into effect. They start buying puts on indexes, right, so they bought it, put on the on the SMP, they bought puts on QQQ.
Why, Well, exactly what happened today.
Now we don't know what certainty looks like or uncertainty looks like for the next couple of weeks. Like you said, if this doesn't change, I mean, it's he's safe to say that recession is at it.
And that's just by definition two negative quarters.
I can't see how these tarffs going to affect this month. And this is a positive quarter for most of these companies.
We're on the ver we're on the verge of a global meltdown, a global recession. I don't think XRP is going to be the answer. I don't know why people are so obsessed with XRP. It's confusing to me. But out of every out of every vehicle that you can think about, x RP is the one golden child. It hasn't done anything in seven years. It goes up and comes down, and I'm just it's just this. But this goes back to the lack of education, and it also goes back to the Gamber's mentality. And it's also how
much education can we give you? Guys. We've been giving you education every single day for seven years. So for you to champion XRP, it's disappointing because it's like, I'm not saying that it has no future at all, but out of everything in the world, XRP is the one thing that you're going to die on.
Doesn't cost much, right, people can load their money inside of it, that there's uncertainty around it.
We heard that the sec is now settled.
It's the hope, right, and the hope of it, as Franklin, a lot of people in Vegas will hope exactly.
That's why we never put hope into the equation.
Right.
You want to make sure you do enough research and you're investing in long term and some things that we know are proven to increase the GDP of our economy for sure.
Well, let me ask you guys this from a global perspective, right, how do you think the percept How does this affect Because everybody's mad at America right now. That's another part of this equation from world leaders. But then citizens like people I've seen Canadian citizens that's like they're not going to America because they're boycott in America. Like there's a global settlement that is setting in of people that's mad
at America. How how how do you think that is playing in and what what is the long term effects of that? Because America was alway he's known is like the place you want to go to. It's like the cool place to be.
But we're cool, we got the funds, we got blue jeans over here, We're a lot of fun. But right
now nobody wants to come right. So it's gonna hurt on the tourism front, it's gonna hurt on the trade front, we know that, but also just on the cultural you know, it's hard to put a number on this, but you know, cultural influence has a wealth impact as well, and you can see it in entertainment obviously when movies go from here over there, you know, over to Europe or Asia where certainly Marvel and those other franchises are massive, but
they also have parks over there. Disney operates around the world, right Coca Cola sells its product around the world for I think half the companies in the S and P five hundred forty percent of the revenue comes from overseas.
So that's gonna hurt both on the sentiment front, on the brand front, and also again, what is the cultural impact from a from a dollar perspective that these companies are going to feel because they come from the United States or they're associated with the United States, like Mickey Mouse, like Coca Cola. Right, there's nothing more American than these companies, and I think they're going to suffer abroad as well.
Yeah, I mean, I think that's a great point. But you got to remember we're a service economy. Like the things that we export our services, and one of those things is education. So as long as we have Harvard, Stanford, you know, Georgia tech people will come to the United States.
Well that's on the fire now, people with the administration doing what they're doing with Columbia and Harvard, and they now people saying like that the education thing, which we want. You were right, but now education is under attack. All of these Ivy League schools are shuffling because what they're doing is the administration is putting so much pressure on these schools that they're forcing them to change policy. Now
they're they're upsetting students and they're upsetting faculty. But then, on one hand, they got to satisfy administration and they got to satisfy people that's giving them money. On the other hand, they're sacrificing their credibility with the students and factult and real academia, right, because that's not how the
academic really works. So, yeah, you're right, But at what point do people say, well, yeah, I'm not going to school in America anymore because I might get arrested from a plant closed police officer and sent to Houston and held in a detention center for six months.
I mean, that seems to be something that's emerging as an issue because we've seen some people, you know, according to reports, essentially get taken off the street. But can I tell you from my personal experiences anecdotal When I went to business school, about three quarters of my class was from Asia, and a lot of them were very wealthy, Like the parking lot I got my NBA from Bentley
University up in Boston. The parking lot had BMW's, Bentley's things I'd never seen before, and I would ask my classmates like you're you know, why'd you come over from? Whether it be China or Taiwan or wherever. They're just like, you know, my parents wanted me to get an education in the US. They thought it was you know, they saw a lot of prestige and me going to school in Boston. So at least in the near term, I don't think that really changes, you know.
I mean, the the.
Prestige of American schools, the experience of going to an American school from when I hear I didn't go to college anywhere else. It's very different than going to college overseas. Also, just the networking ability you get to meet people in the United States potentially make business contacts. But that paradigm, to your point, could be changing. Because a lot of the people that I worked that I went to school with, their parents sent them over here.
There was the prestige of going to school in the US.
And also you meet people here in the US and then hopefully you make business contacts that work for their businesses overseas.
Is it sustainable though, right we I had a very insightful conversation in terms of just college, yes, the prestige, but the battle for the future won't be from an institution, right, Like, if we're talking about the advancement and artificial intelligence, it won't be a battle for like who's more intelligent because they went to said ivy League school. It'll be like who has more of a purpose and who has a skill.
Because if an agent can learn a four year degree in ten minutes, then I could just work with the agent and save myself the time and the money that's going to cause me to.
Actually go to school.
So how sustainable is that mindset of, Hey, we have the best schools.
That's a tough question. At least in the near term. I think it's pretty sustainable. But I think that goes full circuit. We were talking about, like, you know, is going to college the best decision for a lot of people? And I know that you know this show obviously focused on the black and brown community. Is that does that always make sense? Why not a trade school? I mean when you talk to people, a lot of the millionaires that are at golf clubs and doing things their plumbers,
they're contractors, they do hvac. You're seeing a lot of people build their wealth that way, and then the jobs of the future really going full circle we're talking about what are those going to be.
Are there's going to be jobs where you need.
A four year degree or you need the ability to learn and adapt and can you learn those skills that you need to use physically better at a trade school or some type of other technical school. I have mixed, like really mixed feelings about the tariffs. You know, in theory, it kind of makes sense that it would bring jobs back here. I also hear what you're saying is that a lot of these jobs are going to be taken
by robots and things like that. But I do think you have to try to bring some jobs back here so people can start with those jobs and get upskilled to the jobs they are going to exist in the future. I've seen various estimates, but I've seen one estimate was that sixty percent of the jobs that exist today didn't exist before World War Two. So you have to start somewhere,
especially for lower income people, and whether it's assembling. Nobody dreams of assembling an iPhone and some factory in Idaho or Iowa, but that's the start, and then hypothetically you can be upskilled to the higher tech jobs of the future where you work side by side with the robot or you do augmented reality, whatever you're doing, but you do have to start somewhere.
Well, you also brought up a good point where you said seventy percent of classmates was from Asia. That's another thing that we talked about. That's another problem, right, like we as a society are actually getting dumber. This is not my personal opinion, this has just been proven. We're not even in the top twenty when it comes to education in the world, might not even be in the top forty. So even a lot of these high the high paying jobs and not going to Americans anyway. We
came back from Silicon Valley. We was in Meta and we was in Nvidia, and all of the people there were either from China or from India. So yeah, I mean, we're bringing jobs if we're going to try to bring jobs back to America. But like you said, those are low paying jobs for the most part. Even if it's a high paying, low paying job, it's still a low paying job when you factor in inflation of a variety of these really high paying jobs Americans aren't getting anyway
because of education. We're not educated enough to actually do these jobs anyway.
But you got to start somewhere like ice work in Detroit.
I spent a lot of time in Detroit, So I mean, I think there's a lot of potential for someone to start on the assembly line at a Ford plan and get an idea like, man, I can do this better than you create a stamping plan, or you create some other part plan, or you create some innovation.
But you have to be in that room to get the insight.
But we was, but we never moved up from the So Frank, we've been doing that job for one hundred and fifty years, like saying, like, I hear what you're saying, but it's twenty twenty five. We don't need to start at the ground level anymore. We got to start at the highest level because we've been at the ground level forever and that promise of moving up the ladder has never We've never moved up the ladder.
Yeah, it's like preparing for a race forever, Like the races is already being ran, but we can't get to the starting line and.
Say, all right, we're ready.
No, they already are running the marathon right like we it's not even playing catchup. But we got to participate in the space where it's like, all right, well, we can't start at the ground and we can see where this is headed. We have to be in this race for the long run, or else we're gonna stay at the finish the start line, Like all right, I think we're ready to go. I think we're ready to go.
Like, no, I.
Get what you guys are saying, but you gotta When he said they taking black jobs, right, I mean that's what essentially he's referring to, right, Like, but it's like, low skilled jobs are not low paying, and low skilled jobs are not a halfway to it's not a sustainable future. Right, So it's like, even why are we really even fighting for these jobs? They're not sustainable. They're not sustainable. Like putting together an iPhone is not aspirational and it's not sustainable.
That's not something that I don't think our focus should be on.
I understand everything you're saying, but you got to start somewhere. And while Kelb's pointing out that the US unemployments are about four percent, Black unemployment is higher than that, and a lot of us are are skewed more towards as you're talking about lower paying jobs, I'm not saying that manufacturing jobs are the cure all and it's going to fix everything. But oftentimes manufacturing jobs are steady. They pay better than service jobs, even pay better than some of
the warehousing jobs. They've got really popular dround the pandemic. They come with benefits. They provide a ladder for people that want to use it. Similar to the military. The military doesn't pay great, but if you get into the military and you learn how to use some of those resources, it can be a ladder up. Some people get out the military and you're right, they don't have any more skills than when they got in there.
Let me ask you this, both of you guys, before we wrap, I want to get your opinion because the political aspect plays a part too. So Elon Mush. You see, he's been under a lot of pressure and it's starting to backfire. They lost the judicial race in Wisconsin, which he put a lot of money into, twenty five million, So that to me is a sign that there's some
level of there's a revolt politically. This usually always happens that one party gets in then the other party has a favor because they could just say the other party's messing up. But Trump he's pretty hell bent on what he wants to do, and everybody around him is gonna
agree with it. I wonder, at what point if the stock market doesn't cause enough pain, Like if we go into recession, we lose thirty percent of the stock market and that's not enough pain, At what point through the Republic does the Republican establishment put pressure on Trump because they're saying that this is starting to backfire on us, right, because a downward a is not beneficial for a political part that's in power. So they're going to start getting
blamed for it eventually. Right. So he might not kick because he only has one term left. But if allegedly, but if the Republican establishment, which I don't even know if there is a Publican establishment at this point, it's just maga. Can political pressure to get put on him to the reverse course if things get too bad? Yeah?
Well, money talks, right, uh. And as soon as you know, some of those donors start losing some of their money, and some of the big donors or some of the big governors start losing donors in their states and losing those statewide races, which doesn't allow them to do the redistricting, which doesn't allow them to do the remapping to then stay in power for the next twelve years. That's what I think is start to see a little bit of a pullback because it's clearly not the stock market. We've
already seen that, it's not the bond market. We've definitely seen that. I think people are going to get angry, They're going to get hungry, and they're going to get mad. This summer, we'll see what that does or whether this government is just going to clap down with martial law. That remains to be seen too. Like what happens when people hit the streets because they are just so mad
they can't take it anymore. That's what we're going to end up seeing how this government responds to that, and how the rest of the nation observes that and says, oh, is that how we're handling our people now? I mean, you already talked about people being taken off the street
and being deported to Houston and stuff like that. What happens when people get really mad and start taking to the streets, right, and what happens when the big money stops flowing into the people that have put this administration in power. That's probably when you're going to see some movement.
That's a great question.
I think the midterms longer horizon, the midterms for the CORECT for congressional races is going to be a key test. If the Trump back candidates win the midterms, I think that extends his influence even though he's a lame dug president. If they don't, I think that's going to be a clear dividing line in his influence Before then, I'm not really sure because I mean, look at Tesla Elon Musk.
I mean I can't I don't remember how much he's lost. I think he's lost about six hundred million dollars.
Yeah, stop, Yeah, he's certainly been impacted. And also I think some of his plans for the future are potentially impacted. Like you know how we when you ride hill a car, you call it a uber and there's only an uber and lyft, but you still call it a uber, Like I'm gonna get an uber even when you're doing a lyft.
A lot of times. He's going to put out robots and also a ROBOTAXI.
The question is do people want to take them if they're associated with Elon Musk's Caleb's point like, are you so disgusted by what happened with Doge and some of the other things. Do you do you basically boycott the test of ROBOTAXI? Do you not buy the test the robot? Do you buy the hypothetical Microsoft robot instead? Does that hurt the stock? Are other people in this Trump orbit are they potentially going to face that kind of same
consumer reaction? We just don't know yet, you know what I mean, it's not clear one other tests we might get and I don't even know how it's going to work out. But if one of the companies or that where the ceo is a Trump backer gets to actually buy TikTok, do people leave TikTok and protest?
I don't know.
I don't think so. I think people just kind of really like TikTok.
Yeah, I mean, as you were saying exactly, that's exactly what I was thinking Twitter.
Yeah.
I mean, look at Mark Zuckerberg. He's very closely aligned with the Trump administration right now. I mean, I'll be honest, you know, I don't know anybody that's left Instagram because they're against what Mark Zuckerberg's done.
I haven't heard.
I've heard people see a lot of other things about boycotting this retail or boycott this retailer.
I haven't one person say I'm jumping off insta.
That's right, right, we say one thing, but do they but do the other.
All the time?
Frank, you know the man I was actually thinking that, right, like Robotech, that that announcement is going to be coming in June. I know they have a rollout, but you think about all those CEOs right that came to the inauguration of pre inauguration, it came and spoke to Trump, and what that perspective is now, right that they've lost I mean hundreds of billions of dollars from their personal wealth.
Obviously that they're they're going to be fine, But it's interesting to look at May seventh, is the date you brought up the feed cher Caleb. I think you're one of the most educated people in this space of breaking down the correlation between inflation, between the CPI, between mortgage not mortgageman, the interest.
Rates going up.
Can you just explain that to people so they can get a clear glimpse of how all those things play apart and why the decision of how many rate cuts we get this year is going to be super important.
Yeah, the Federal Reserve, our central bank, has two jobs. Two mandates, right, keep unemployment or keep the country fully employed, which is somewhere between three and a half and four percent unemployment, and also keep inflation in the two to two and a half percent rates. That's where they've traditionally wanted these things to happen. How do they do that. They do that by either raising or lowering interest rates
or buying more government securities. But by raising interest rates making money more expensive, people are going to spend less. That's a way for that's a way to keep inflation from rising or to actually help bring it down. We saw that when inflation hit eight point eight eight percent after the pandemic. They raise rates to multi generational highs to do that, and we're still on our way back down. Now.
If the economy starts to sputter because we're doing less consumer spending, and just remember that GDP gross domestic product is seventy percent consumer spending. That's us going to the mall, taking a vacation, buying a new pair of Air Force nikes. Frank, that is us spending money, and business is spending money. When we slow down our spending. The FED lowers interest rates to juice the economy makes money cheaper, cheaper to borrow,
so we'll spend more, consume more. That usually kickstarts the economy. Now, what we've seen over the past several recessions, going back to the Great Financial Crisis, is when the economy got into really bad shape, whether it was the fault of the banks making bad loans, or whether it's just a COVID all of a sudden knocking everything offline, and all of a sudden, everybody's at home and the economy comes to a sandstill. Well, what does the FED do. It's slammed.
It lowers interest rates to the floor. It takes interest rates to zero to stimulate the economy to get people spending again. That's what we did. That's what produced inflation, and that's what got the economy back in gear and
the stock market back in gear again. The concern to me now is that there is no moral hazard when you knew the FED was just going to come in and take care of everything, or the government was just going to put helicopter rain, helicopter money all over the economy to get us spending again, whether that was through stimulus payments or what have you, or through tarp back in the Great Financial Crisis? Is this the type of
administration that will do that? Are they going to come to the rescue of the economy that they're kind of burning down right now? Or are they going to let it burn and in the process destroy tens of millions of households and their wealth going forward? And that's a huge question right now. And how much control does the FED really have? The FED always said it remains independent. I'm in Washington, DC right now, guys. Tomorrow morning, I'm
going to an interview with FED chair Powell. I'm not interviewing him, but I'm going to be in the room when it's happening because I want to hear what he has to say about this. But he's not going to say anything because he knows he doesn't have the power right now.
Extremely insightful, extremely insightful conversation.
Well, can I hit you guys with two things really quick? Tomorrow on CNBC, We're gonna have the Microsoft CEO. I believe my colleague John Ford, He's gonna be doing the interview. For anybody has a no follow John Ford man, he's the pre eminent voice. When it comes to tech, he's the Walter Cronkit to tech, He's Brian Gumblin tech right, and any other thing you want to throw in there to your other point about robotics and everything personally, and this is just me. This is not you know, I'm
instructing a body to do this. It's just insight into what I do. I'm a big believer in investing in the Triple Q's in the max of and I think at least a couple of those companies are going to win when it comes to AI agents automation, at least a couple of them. And probably when you look at the Triple Ques, a bunch of them, a bunch of them are gonna either do his software or do the agents.
I mean, just various companies in there.
Then the other thing mutual friend of all of us, John hop Brien, he's doing an event tomorrow. Business plan for America. I think all of us have come up with our personal business plan. We got to think about what happens if we face a recession. It's not just about saving money, it's just what do you pivot to right now? If you're just doing a job just for a check and it may go away. How do you pivot to doing what you actually want to do and
you're passionate about. As you guys mentioned, this is a crisis about. Out of all crisis or crises come opportunity. New businesses will be created, New industries will be created, even just new nonsense will be creative. People come up with new things that they're just interested in to waste time. And I'm not dissing anybody, but the Ashton Hall thing. People are now buying Saratoga water and squeeze the lemons
and dipping their face in bowls. There's gonna be some other craze like that during the pan I mean during the recession, if we have one, it's gonna be so many opportunities. So you know me, like and I think everybody else out there, you should be going with your own business plan.
Make sure you're doing the things that you want to do and not just the things you have to do.
Right, be the CEO of your own life. Never more important than right now.
That's fun. Well, thank you, gentlemen. First of all, everybody Ring Holland has the show on c CNBCF five o'clock in the morning every day, and uh, Investorpedia is a website that I've been using for years and is a great resource, probably the top resource on the net when it comes to learning about different Like it's all stuff that you can actually type in and it gives you detailed information. So today, yeah for sure. So and they
both have come to invest Fest invest Fast alumni. They've done a variety of different things with US Market Monday.
Yeah lovely.
Yeah, we got we gotta, we gotta get we gotta get John Man, we got to get them on the show.
Let's do it.
I mean, man, you guys need to connect.
Absolutely, And thank you guys, because yeah, we talked about it before. But I said, I said, in my opinion, I think invest Fest this year, this is gonna be the most important year because it's always important to get information, but it's even more important in times of crisis. The information and the relationships. Those are the two most important things that's really going to propel you during times of crisis. So what's your guy experience would investments before we leave, like,
what's your because you you've both experienced it. So I'm just always interested to see how other people view it because it's kind of hard for me to view it because I'm on the outside. I'm in, like you know, on the perimeter. So you guys inside of it, how is it? Well?
Excellent vibe, the energy is amazing. Everybody's there to learn. People are taking notes, they're listening. They're also engaging with each other.
You know.
It's just it's almost like a collegial environment. It's like you're on a college campus. Almost everybody feels comfortable to speak to each other, ask questions. I think the panels have been amazing. I really enjoyed them, not only the ones I'm moderated, but I just got to watch some of the other ones. I found it highly educational, and I really would tell other people you got to.
Come at least for one day. Just got to come and experience it for one day.
Spend the day there, walk through the other area where you have people with blues and things like that. Marketplace, marketplace exactly. It's just a great experience, a lot of like minded people. If you're someone that wants to learn, grow, just grow yourself and also grow your wealth.
Yeah, I'd say it's, you know, the greatest show in investing right now. And I mean that, and I go to a lot of these where you get high level speakers, really good conversation.
You get into it.
There's the educational part and there's the showtime part, and you do great at both of those things. But the best part for me is actually sitting in that booth area in the marketplace area, just talking to people and having people come up and ask me questions about money and their own personal finances, make sure they're on the right track. Somebody will hear our conversation, Dey'll chime in, and all of a sudden, you got six seven people
I've never met in my life. I'm not even from Atlanta who want to talk and engage and help each other out. That spirit of generosity and reciprocity there is unbelievable and it seems like it's totally organic. You guys, just you created this amazing event and people brought that with that energy with them when they came to it because you engendered that and that's what you get out of that. And it's not like it's a thousand people.
It's like, you know, thousands and thousands of people all feel in the same vibe.
We appreciate you, Caleb. We must have the skateboard there with you.
This.
Yeah, please will be back now. We appreciate you guys so much, always always adding so much value. Extremely knowledgeable and thank you, thank you so much.
It's gonna be on the Emergency Terraff episode.
Man Colin to.
Man, it's uh, it's it's a crucial time in America right now.
Appreciate you doing what you do. Man, people need.
Do what you're doing.
Yeah, my guy, Frank, I'll give you a call, my brother.
Appreciate you.
Talk to y'all soon.
Man, thank you, yes, sir, Okay, all right, Man, what do we learn today?
It was a lot, Man, that was a lot, but it's important, right people, like I said, a lot of a slide uncertainty. I'm glad that the open conversation that people in the chat are even having their own conversations, but giving some type of education around what's happening. Because most people just hear the news and the news happened
to them. They don't really know what's going on. So hopefully we got to debunk some things, give some clarity some things, and people make investment decisions and make personal decisions about the information that they received tonight.
Man. That's the power relationships. We wasn't planning on doing that episode of this week, but within a couple of hours we we got episode. We promoted on social media. We have good friends, so they came and we had eight thousand people on. So the relationship thing, I'm always gonna talk about relationships because that's the key. That's that's that's the major key in life is relationships. Yeah, so yeah, it will probably get rockier. I'm not gonna lie to you.
I think that we were in for this is gonna be. This is gonna be a rocky road. But it's opportunities in every crisis, state, state disciplined, don't gamble dollar cost, average good companies, indexed funds, state of course, put your plan together, don't spend money unnecessarily. Invest in your education. This this is it, man, This is this is it. This is it. Somebody asked when my classes.
My class will be shooting for the seventeenth of able to EU y l U all earners. Our class is going to be April seventeenth for our optence class. It's going to be a good one. I got I got some special special guests joining me, so it's gonna be dope. Make sure y'all tune in real quick before you go.
There is a host hotel. Somebody asked that in the chat. Okay, if you go to invest fest dot com, I believe the hotel information is on there. Yeah, yeah, I know. It's uh the first the signey is the sign is a whole hotel and you get it, but you get a rate.
Yeah, get investment. Go to investments dot com. All the information is there. Make sure y'all get uh get the percentage off on our website to the signia which is actually attached to the venue.
You can't.
It doesn't get any better than.
But this is important. Don't just book the signia on your own because you won't get the discount of rate. Go to investment bestest dot com and you get the discount of rate. But please, the hotel is literally attached to the can Mention Center. Absolutely, that's the best place to stay.
Yeah, that was one of the best improvements over the years of investors having that hotel attached to the actual venue. People wake up, they walk downstairs, They on their lunch, they go back to their rooms, get a quick nap, come back downstairs, get ready for the evening, wake up. Do the same thing in the morning, shout out to everybody, all everybody putting it together for August August twenty four.
That's the fact, and it's a signia by Hilton.
Yes, I was gonna ask you before we go. They're supposed to be a decision here. Maybe there'll be a delay on the TikTok Amazon put that bid in. Larry Ellison is the front runner. What's your thoughts.
I heard the Amazon plays not getting taken seriously from the administration. Yeah, Larry Ellison somebody that is very good with Trump, So you know, I think that's gonna have you. Caleb brought a good point as far as that they might be burning down on purpose to make to privatize everything and to help the people strategic people around them that's extremely rich and get very more, get more richer. Yeah,
that would be one of those people, right. That would be a person who directly benefit from this situation is somebody like Larry.
Yes, he said, more Richard, more wealthy. Same thing.
Look, I don't think Grandma's important at that. Yes, I think man, we on the we on the verge of a global depression. Yes, I don't think how you spelled there matter. I don't think I don't think it's gonna matter. I'll be honest with you. They're them those I don't think if you spelled two with two o's on one O, you can spell it with the letter the number two at this point, just the number Yo. You better, this
is getting serious out loves Grandma or you. The punctuation is not gonna matter when when a robot is doing everybody's job. Yeah, I predicted.
I asked that because in our class I was talking about Larry Ellison's relationship with Trump. But the fact that they already had a partnership with TikTok to run their data in twenty twenty during the pandemic. They already have relationship there with with optimizing their information for that platform. The fact that Stargate and that announcement happened in early January, right around the inauguration.
Larry Elson has been popping up.
There's there's some signs there that that oracle is gonna be a heavy, heavy player in that TikTok situation. So that should happen, I think on the fifth. So we'll see by Malcolm Monday's we'll know what happens. Either is gets delayed or gets get it gets brought out.
But for one thing, for sure, Yeah, I knew that TikTok wasn't going away, and it didn't go away to Oracle, like he said, people love TikTok. People will love Instagram. They're gonna keep using it. Certain things you could boy talk, you could boycott Target, but into Instagram's off limits.
And if you're still in the chat, man, we're gonna have a conversation about.
Nike on on Monday. Screw in, big trouble.
Nike is really screwed. But forget market. Monday will be very interesting.
Oh my gosh, Yeah, be interesting one for sure. We're gonna have a conversation about that. Yeah, for locker, you on the clock, you're next, You're next, You're next.
Keep your composure, Keep your composure. Trump hell of a guy, is Trump? You know, there's there's a thing on TikTok now is like you know, the running thing was that he's a good businessman, so he'd be good for the economy. Is he really a good businessman though he's had like over ten bankruptcies at the question. He's a great marketer.
We can never take that away. He's a great marketer, you know what, But the businessman thing is up up for question at this point, because we really got to consider that because of the bankruptcies, I mean just in general, he's running a lot of companies into the ground. This he lost the he lost the election last time because of the economy. I've never they said, they've never seen a president manufacturer recession in eighty days. That's this is
pretty historic. Ye, like he's manufactured. That's why I.
Feel like there's it's going to be all right here it is. Here's how I save the day. The Here is how I say the day. Moment is coming. It's just about when it happens, until he's not able to do it, until you can't say the day, until you can't say the day.
No, he's propping this thing.
Up as you go too far, He's going really far, not far enough. Yeah, China said, I don't know what you're doing. I want to see what they said. Literally says, I don't know, I don't know. I don't know what you're doing.
There was the one of the premiers from Canada said, oh, if they dropped terrorists, we'll drop him today. They're like, but you've had tell us. He's like, we'll drop everything today. Let's let's let's do this. It's a it's a to say it's an interesting time. As an understatement, this is an unprecedented time. Like I said, like we can't predict. We can look at historical analytics, right like I got this almanac, kid, that that traces the hitting the history
of the market for the past ninety years. Ain't nothing like this, guy, Ain't nothing like this time. We've never seen it. This is this is gonna be in a history books. We're living in it.
Di. This is the real DI. A bunch of people that have no idea what they're doing, the real DI. That's the raster crazy thing about it. This is the real DI plan. You got a bunch of people that have no idea what they're doing. That's just running them up. We should have Corey Booker on here. Corey Booker spoke for twenty seven hours. I'm not sure what that accomplished. He literally spoke for twenty seven.
People cheering them on, like, yeah, this is the person we need to stand up for us twenty seven hours.
I don't know it's speaking for twenty seven hours accomplish this? I don't know. I don't know.
Maybe they can help me, chat, y'all can help. I'm not sure do you remember any of it?
Like, how do you retain? How do you prepare for that? Number one?
He didn't even sit down there said.
Utter foolishness, that's what that was. That would utter foolishness.
Oh, Man, twenty seven hours, that's gonna be a new song. How long it's feel about their history? Yeah, you're right, I'm just not sure what it what it does?
Did he he did he not have to go to the bathroom? Yeah, how does that happen? He like he had a diaper on? Yeah, probably probably at least he got in at least he got in history books.
Yeah, you can't stop that. Twenty four he.
Broke Seank shran Thurman's record.
But what did Thatt accomplish when he did it? I'm not sure gained attention? You're right, it did gain attention. We're talking about it. So it is said he had definity in the system.
Coca cola. Ya that coca cola, chat Yo wild cola.
It is the only way somebody could be awake for.
Twenty four hours off those pills. Man.
Allegedly he is allegedly we got to say allegend no, we've seen allegedly a couple of things have happened. Allegedly our name out there, allegedly everything's.
Alleged entertainment purposes only.
Yo, be good to each other. Keep your seat built on out here. We will get through this. We will get through this. Love is love, man. We love y'all. Thank you all for tuning in. Thank y'all for rocking with us. We see y'all Monday, See y'all Monday.
Peace love.
Take out the audio. This is going to be audio. Also yeah, running back.
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