Study Hall: KEYS TO LONG TERM INVESTING WITH IAN DUNLAP

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than the original. So I want you to write these golden rules down because we are in a new normal. We will never go back to the old model. So for those of you who are in the workforce before two thousand and seven, when the Great Recession hit, it changed how business was done forever. I remember even going to college in two thousand and it was like, man, if you graduate, you're guarantee the job. And then the Great Recession hit and that got wiped away. Twenty twenty

is come and we'll talk about it later. The era that we're entering in now so before the information age, where we are in a new age now. But here's the thing that I want you to do. If you are working, please write this down right now. For every dollar that your company pays you, you need to know how much of a return you are giving them, because it's the only thing that is going to give you any security with that company. Or when it's time to

apply for another job. Secondarily, I want to focus on this. You have to break up your time into quadrants of four and you have to have a time for work a time for play. I'll tell you like this, Never have I been to the funeral and once thought about business when I was there. And companies will not care about you as much. And everyone has seen the meme. If you die today tomorrow you know your job will be on a job board and that is very true.

So as we enter this new normal and things are not going back to how they were before, I want you to pick your own balance for how things are going to be governed and then in this era for you and your family. One of the biggest trading lessons of the week to all my traders, get your pans out, We'll get your phone out and screenshot this. Once you have a major loss, you have to cut your losses

and stop. So number one, I want you to take a break for a week, and after two days, I need you to look at the recording and see what went wrong. So if you go through the book Market Wizards, which is probably my favorite book on trading, one of the biggest things that people talk about is when they have a big loss. You almost feel like you're in a tornado and you don't know what happened, and emotions

kick in. But like a player would postgame, you need to go through and look at the footage to see what went wrong, what happened wrong, on what you can do differently so that does not happen again. And number one Number two, if you are a trader and you are winning less than fifty percent of your trades, please write this risk to reward ratio down. I want you to risk one to make twenty two. Please type in chat what percentage do you need to be at in

order to be profitable? If that is your risk of reward. Now, not all products are gonna allow you to do that, but now as that dal Russell on the future side will allow you to do so, you need to risk one to make twenty two. So even if you are a bad trader from a stat's perspective, you still need to be able to make money and know what the probability is of your trading. I don't know something, You're gonna kill me, but look, if UFOs are real, then

a space exploration will be the next frontier. So a couple of weeks ago, on ig I was posting all these conspiracy videos about UFOs right, and then behind the scenes you can see there are a couple of tickers up here. Go look at the ticker UFO, the ticker are okay, t rocket. And then of course the amazing Kathy Woods has her own which is going to focus on space expiration. I think over the next ten years there'll be some incredible revelations. But of course Amazon and

Tesla are already there. Whenever SpaceX goes public, I'm gonna be by towards them because Elon is a great leader. But look at these two ticker symbols. Tonight, question for you, I need you to write this in chat. Have you made more money from long term holding or from trading? Kirk put up a great comment last week, and I was told by my uncle, an investor worth a high eight figures, what to do with my money. Only buy grown companies and hold them. Do not trade. You will

regret doing that. Now. Twenty percent of people that begin trading stick around for more than a year. Out of that twenty only ten percent stay around for five years. Here's a great thing, though, Even if you never learn how to trade, keep your money in the market for a long enough period. A ten year old is ideal. You'll beat most people that are actually trading, because most traders blow up their account and give all their money back.

So I know there's a lot of other things that are sexy, but the tried and true formula here is to hold for ten years, and if you can hold for thirty, that would be absolutely incredible in terms of selectivity, in terms of your allocation. For every twenty investments you see, you have to say no to nineteen of them. So for weeks we've talked about fundamentally what I look at when I assess the company, and we'll talk about another

one tonight. But when I'm going through and comparing companies to the primary ones that I like, they have to trump the ones that I have already, and if they don't, you have to let it go. Sometimes because of the amount of media we're taking in, we're like, hey, let me just jump in this one and let's see how

it pans out. But remember the number of shares that we own is more important than the price we particularly got in, and we want to focus on a few concentrated quality companies opposed to having thirty five in a portfolio trading lesson number three, and for traders, our point of reflection and insights usually happen on the days we have off. So the future as market was upen for

half a day. The volume wasn't that high. But the secret is cutting down the number of trades you take for the year, so you can follow this simple matrix. First quarter, want you to take twelve. Second quarter, I want you to take twelve trades. Third quarter, twelve, fourth quarter. You already have an assessment for how the year went. Either we're super bullish, super barish, or we were ranging. Fourth quarter. You can double the amount of trades and

do twenty four. But too many people trade like they're gambling in Vegas, opposed to running it like a business. You want to treat trade in like a business year in and year out. Please put trade like it's a business in chat. The top ten apps to twenty twenty. Now look at these. Zoom number one, which we're on now, and they're gradually improving. TikTok right, Third is Disney Plus,

fourth is YouTube owned by Google, then Instagram, Facebook. But the thing I want you to notice how Instagram and Facebook are falling out of favor Josh last week talked about how Facebook is a communication company. And also, for those of you that are insiders on in the industry, you know that Zuckerberg is not the most favorable CEO for whatever reason. I don't know if because he blew off Wall Street week they haven't liked him since then. He isn't the darling entrepreneur and CEO that some of

his peers are held out to be. So Facebook is sliding down. Snapchat, even though it's lost popularity, still was downloaded or not a lot messengers underneath Snapchat once again a Facebook product. It's towards the end of the chain. Gmail, and then of course cash App, owned by Square. Square is an amazing company. So these are the top ten. But when you see these kind of lists, pay attention to who is up top and who is sliding down.

And if you compare twenty twenty to twenty nineteen and go through twenty seventeen and twenty sixteen, you will see that there's a gradual change to the downside. And then of course TikTok came out of nowhere and crushed the market. And I posted this earlier, but I need to have a very honest conversation with you about for those of you that are trading, if you're not studying every day, it's only because deep down you don't want to win.

And if you're overtrading, it's because you don't want to win, because you are self sabotaging. I'll tell you like this, if you truly, truly love trading the act of and we have some athletes on here, like the guys that you have to beat into the gym, they don't want to play ball. And it's okay, you don't have to trade. You can make way more money doing something else. I

want you to follow what your passion. I know, trading right now sexy as hell, and it's in vogue and I can't wait till it goes not to being sexy anymore how it used to be three or four years ago. But when you want it, you will lust after the work that comes with it in order to win. So if you are not studying every or you feel like it's a chore that you hate, I want you to make the decision either to walk away and be a long term investor or go all in. But I want

you to put in chat. Are you going to go all in? All long term invest and like I said before, even if you just long term invest, you're going to do better than most people who solely trade. Last week, Josh talked to us about why PE ratio doesn't matter as much, and I want to take you down a quick trip down memory lane. So in two thousand and eight, because it's same So when you guys are like, hey, Apple's going to fall apart, this story gets printed every

damn year. So in two thousand and eight, this is the day, like the market lost faith in Apple. Steve was still running it right, so you can see here had about an eighteen cash trailing and ten x four it while maintaining seventy percent earnings growth for over a year. And it was the same thing. Not enough products, MacBooks are dying, the CEO isn't good, is boring? We want some new right, But look at the price of Apple then, and if you would have held from two thousand and

eight through now. So when we're looking at these ratios, and even if you're looking at Benjamin Graham's model or another indicator that you guys can runt write down is buffets measurement of the market. They are great ways to calculate,

but sometimes they misstep. So if you go and look at this article, you can see Apple's potential was discounted for six months before the recession, and then the market bottomed out and their earning was great and they continue to innovate and continue to make sales like crazy, and they went to the upside. So even if something has a high PE ratio, it's just the cost that you're paying for those earnings. But what if they're earning their company is printing earnings like shit and they are non

their company that's a NonStop printing machine. You should not get out of them because of that reason. So sometimes PE ratio and these ratios can be misleading. I think they are good measurement for the overall index, but there has to be an exception for when a company it's top one or two in it's field. And this is the point that I need to drive home again for

my fundamental and technical traders. There has to be a catalyst for while the market falls, the market isn't going to slide down just because we hit a technical level. That's why you can see we constantly have been hitting all time highs and everyone's like, well, I'm in short here, and I'm like, why so they hit a high, it can go fifteen percent higher before it eventually slides down. So you need an interest rate increase, which we may have soon. A bubble, a weak market, we need something

to push it down. And here's a good trick to know. Whatever that catalyst is, it will be on the news as soon as you get off work soon and then it'll be all over social. So with COVID is if we hit a certain benchmark, we cross three or four million deaths, that will push the market down a lot. But until then, don't worry. I don't know if you guys know, but Market Monday is a idea and a real time course that should be a hell of a lot in real time. But I want you to remember

to execute. Kudos to their brother here who's up on Plug and NEO. What I don't want to do is solely entertain you. What I want you to do is for you to be entertained, inspired, and then you execute. So I know some of you are like, hey, you hear one thing, but when you go back and listen, another thing has been said. So for those of you that have wondered if NEO is solid, plug is solid. Yes, I don't think they're the leader in that space, and I don't think that they will be.

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Boeing look like when we crash. I don't love Boweing, but out of the airline sector was the only one that I really liked, and they know one up to twenty nine and off and it's been sliding back. So once again, I want to remind you guys to listen, take notes, and even after the episode is over, watch the replay because there's some gems in there that you probably missed onto fundamentals that matter. Please write, write this down.

Rotation is not for you. I've never seen so many retail traders in my life here about rotation for long term investment. If you're trading, okay, different, but if you're holding for a long period of time, it's not for you. Hedge funds have to spend money every quarter. You don't. And then the second one is mind share. So mind share is when you say a category or brand is the first thing that you think about. So let's play

a little game. So if I mention a car company, what's the first car company that comes to your mind? Please type and chat. Okay. Now, if I mentioned a sneaker company, what's the first one that comes to mind? Okay? If I mention an electronics company, well, let's say computer company to be more specific, which one comes to mind? I love Michaeldeal, but nobody's saying Dell. So mind Chair

is the one. If you interview ten people on the street, eight out of ten would say that particular brand mind Chair is an equation and fundamental analysis that I think is over excuse me, underrated, very underrated. And I want to clear this up. So I know some of you have been hit me up about twenty four strings of revenue. I want to be very clear. I'm not saying that I want you to make twenty four different businesses or

have twenty four jobs, because that's impossible. But I do want to walk through some of the biggest finance lessons from some of the biggest companies in the world. So if you look at Microsoft, Microsoft has over one hundred and one products. If they only needed seven for world domination with all the data that they have, don't you think they would do seven apples? Thirty Pepsi has over one hundred. Let's go to all my folks in atl

Coca Cola. You can google this has five hundred brands underneath their umbrella and thirty nine hundred beverag choices thirty nine hundred. So if the magical number was seven, with all the research and brand development that Coca Cola's done. Don't you think seven will be more than enough? So if you're just starting, I don't want you to be

upset by hearing this number. But our job is delivered to deliver the truth to the community and not bullshit advice that's been shoveled down Instagram until you by people who are not doing that. But they're on clubhouse nine hours a day drinking all the kids juicy juice. Like, we're not here for that. But thirty nine hundred choices is a lot of excus but there's a reason for that. I'll walk you through a book that I think is probably probably going to be the next money master of

the game from a macro level tonight. But a very interesting insight that Chamunth gave to Josh when they were at a conference was they stopped learning twenty years ago. What I don't want you, guys to do is even hear the information that we give you and just take face value. I want you to go review it, read it and make sure that it's true, because most people in investing stop learning after year one, and that's how

most people end up giving up their edge. Okay, and you guys did an amazing job with the interview with Mark Cuban. I want you guys to go back and look and listen to the interview. But the minimization of risk for how he was protecting his capital and his new found wealth is the most important lesson in that college strategy that he executed. Could he have made more, Yes, he's done pretty damn well for himself. Since kudos to

everybody at iye you. But even if you don't have a lot of money, I know the idea is you want to grow fast. But if you grow fast and you lose fast, what ends up happening for us to the African American and breaks your spirit and you leave the market and never come back. It's a unique experience. So the reason why I'm saying defense, defense, defense, Why

it's not the sexiest thing. It doesn't matter if you have a two hundred percent gainer and then on your next trade you get back one hundred and fifty percent of it or two hundred percent of it, or you get margin called and lose more. So go right down and go look up that strategy that he executed, and I think it will have a tremendous impact on how

you invest going forward. This is for the dads. I want you to stop thinking about investing over a short period of time, and I want you to make some funds available for your family for the next hundred years. I think we're thinking about this on too short of a timeframe. Is it worth a sacrifice? I think if you love your child, yes, it's my job personally for me and my family to provide for the next two hundred years. So the seeds that I lay, I hope

Xander or his child does not mess it up. But for the next two hundred years, I'll be able to provide a solid foundation for him and then for the dads to love your children. I think that should be a goal. And next week I'll walk you through some of the steps we can do to make that a reality. And for those of you who are just starting and

you feel intimidated, let's look at this. Here's how much you would have made if you would have just invested five hundred a month type yes and chat if you spent five hundred a month partying or on other things that brought you less value four percent ready to return, which I mean invest in ask considerable risk. Nothing is guaranteed. We cannot project future gains based on past performance, and you can reshot at Troy, but I think I can comfortably say that we may be able to get you

four percent easily. Perhaps five hundred a month for ten years. You have seventy three grand at six percent return, eighty one thousand, five hundred a month of ten years of an eight percent return, you have ninety one thousand. Now I want you to calculate if you got eighteen percent year of a year for ten years, how much that would be. It's not the dollar amount that you start with, it's the consistency and the action. And some of you

figured this out in March. It's like you got in at a great price on some companies, but you only got ten shares of it. And it's like, damn. If you knew back then what you know now, you probably would have furnished or liquidated everything to furnish those investments going forward. So even if you're starting small, it's okay. It's going to give you confidence to bill later. And as we get close to wrapping up, I want to show you how to identify the best companies in the

sector in less than ninety seconds. So if we take this site is called guru Focus. So let's go to my favorite Let's go to technology. Step one, I want you to click on the sector. It's my screen still showing to no. Yes, okay, hold on, let me show the entire screen. Okay, yeah, there we go. Now this is a gourgu Focus. I'm not a paid affiliated to anything. Step one, I want you to click on the sector. Great Now, After that, I want you to pick on the biggest portion of that pie. So in this case

it will be software. It's fifty point eight percent of the market. So we'll click here. Great Now, we'll go to software and let's see who runs that space. And you can see clearly by industry waiting, Microsoft is first, and then you have the other smaller players. Notice nobody's ever screaming damn, I should buy IBM, even though they may have a chance in the next couple of years to go up a little bit higher. Right, And then you can do the same thing with hardware. So let's

go look at hardware. We can look at the waiting. Who runs the waiting for hardware by a landslide is Apple. So I'm literally looking at who is the biggest player in the market selecting those and then inside of that category, I'm picking the top two. I don't want the ninth best semiconductor in a space, So let's click on semiconductor. So you can see in video Solid love a lot Intel that market share is dying great and you can use this site to see who are the market share

leaders in a particular space. And I got a couple more slizes and then we'll wrap up. So if you look at the five things the market cares about the most, please screenshot this. There's so much talk about what matters and what moves the market. These are a core five. Number one, the stability of the economy. Is the economy doing good or bad. If the economy is doing good, people going to spend more, and even companies that are not that talented or that great we have great management

will do well. Number two interest rates. Interest rates have been low for a long time, and when they finally bump this up, man, the market is going to slide back some and all this free cash that we've been getting out of the market and all these easy eighteen and twenty five percent games, they're going to go away. They're going to go away. Number three earnings of a particular company. So I want you to look at the top two leaders, of the top three leaders in the

space and see what the earnings are. Number four does not get talked about enough enough, but it's really the number of buyers and sellers. There are more buyers in Tesla than there are short sellers. For all the short sellers, may you rest in peace, stop short in Tesla. And number five, who is best in a category investment? Is not that Even when we did the mind share exercise, no one is named of the fifteenth best player in the space. And we are in an efficiency era and

this will not go away. So before it was the information age, but the companies that will dominate now are the ones that will make our lives easier, get things for us faster, and save us money. So like Roku, Netflix, Zillo. So if you guys have not looked, Zillo is now make an offer on houses. So for my real estate agents, you're going to have to find a way to take care of your customers and clients more and also sell them houses faster because the biggest player in the space

is now starting to look to eat your lunch. And all technology companies usually aim to do this Dominos Match, so Match owns everything except Bumble. They are a huge conglimerate and when I did the interview with Easy, we talked about that a few months ago. They've been on a tear. And of course, Amazon, the company that makes life easier for us so we don't have to drive and drop off tapes at Blockbuster and get a fine Netflix is a better pick. Roku is a better pick.

In comparison, we have now switched to an efficiency era and for my business owners, you need to find a way to get things delivered to you in a much faster way. Ten years ago you would have to drive to downtown to meet with Reshid right, maybe do love much now Zoom. We have to streamline everything that we're doing. And then the final thing I want to cover for you is the worst companies of this past decade had a central thing. They were energy focused, the big energy company.

We companies we are watching die in front of us. And some will make the adjustment and some will go to clean energy and some will not, and they will die a slow death before a company to draw down seventy percent or eighty percent in a year is unfathomable, but we are here at a change right before eyes. So I appreciate you guys so much. I thank you Deally. I want to remind you to please invest in the market every single month, and if you are going to trade,

be dedicated. Practice your ass off because it's not easy. I love you guys. Thank you my graduates from my school being forced back drop drop, drop, drop drop.