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Soower take it before we begin.
China's gonna collapse soon next year, They're gonna go through a big recession. Get careful so we'll be careful. So for those of you about to tune out, you're about to go cook and take care of your kids.
Keep your eye on China. Things are gonna get really tough next year.
Ahead.
China will collapse. That all right, let's get back to that later on.
They always say it's not true. I know it's gonna be a think piece tomorrow. Ian's wronk again. Okay, give it a few months. Michael Saylor Bigcoin twenty thousand said that was crazy, said Michael Saylor wouldn't leave. And here we are.
So let's get right into this.
Bigcoin hit twenty four thousand, the highest price has been in two months. What price will it hit by the end of the year.
I think bigcoin will probably get up to like thirty four thousand and seven twenty. It's gonna be a slow push up. The world is like really just when we talk about Michael Burry later, but the hedge funds, macro investors, institutional investors are just really resetting the prices that should be they should be brought in at we are. We kind of did like a dead cat bounce and we're like in the middle range. This isn't the best time
to buy. We're probably hit thirty four thousand some change, maybe get up to thirty five thousand and slide back down. But we should end up positive. We'll have some positive growth and bitcoin for the year. S and P is pushing up. Everyone put in chat, what's the number I said we should hit for S and P by end of the year. We're getting close there, and I think by twenty twenty four like bitcoin and be back in
at sixty seventy possibly eighty range. So we got the hold on tight, but it'll be worth for a few years for you to hold onto it.
Okay, so we're telling the long term investor.
Anything else you want to add to that, Yeah, I mean we could.
Talk about bitcoin, but we should also pay attention to you.
What ethereum is, don I'm going to go next?
Bcoin?
I mean, obviously we say this's all time, like I'm not trading it, so it's a long term investment.
So the money goes in, it stays there.
But it's interesting like some people who have been waiting hopefully, like you said, got into it when it got down to nineteen nine or nineteen seven, because even at twenty four you've made profit. If it gets up to thirty four, you made even more profit. And so we always try to figure out where's the bottom, where's the bottom when it pulls back sixty seventy percent.
We've seen the volatility in it. If you've studied the history of.
It, you know that, all right, anywhere between seventy to eighty three eighty five percent is a time that it usually hits its bottom. And so we got to that point. If your research said it, then you should have invested in it. But again, we keep it long term. I'm not training it. We say we're going to stay in the position.
Yeah, I'll say, Bitcoin in ethere are the two that you should hold long term. Everything else you should trade. So so know some of you, like you hate every crypto.
I don't.
I just don't want you guys to lose a bunch of money. But she but those Luna, you know, all the ones that are not the top two swing trade though, and if you want to day trade them, they trade them. But Bitcoin and the theory you should hold. I'd like the return I think over the last ten years of bitcoin, if you held it, it's like two hundred and ten thousand percent return.
Yeah, something ridiculous.
You can't argue. Just hold.
So all right, so let's talk about ethereum. The mighty mighty Ethereum is back. Has risen like the phoenix is up fifty I believe this month. Yeah, from the low ethereum two point zero on the way Ah ethereum, Yeah is ethereum good now?
Good question.
Yeah, so it has risen again. Another just the same story as bitpoint bitcoin. We saw the pull back to a sixteen hundred level. Obviously now it got up to
two thousand and pulled back a little bit. But the news of that, the merge, that's happening, right, So I think they gave us a date over pat over the weekend, the saying Sep. Seven and fifteenth it's going to move from proof of work to proof of state, which means more less energy intensive as far as how they're going to produce less rewards being given in more of a proof of state situation, which is obviously going to make it a more efficient coin or a more efficient blockchain
to build on. And so that is going to happen, they say in the fifteenth through the nineteenth.
They've already tested.
I think last week they had the third trial of the merger and it went successful, and so Italics came out I think probably over the weekend and said to those are going to be the dates to look out for. So it had a nice ride. Like you said, it's up fifty two percent from its lows. Ethereum is something that we spoke about, I mean over and over, and we talked about being the highway for all these blockchains, these coins to be built on, especially from a usage standpoint.
So we're long, long, long, long long on Ethereum.
Yeah.
Yeah, I'm gonna say something that I normally don't say. I don't know, so I'll give you guys a target. So twenty nine four eighty is a price target that we could hit. I just haven't done all the week, and given the fact that I was sick, I haven't had a chance to go through like all the reading and research. I do think, well, if we'll look at once again Blackrock Vanguard, and I know people are like, hey,
that doesn't matter. Last year was like they would never have influence, and now we see Blackrock and coinbase starts to have a partnership. You're going to see JP Morgan, Citadel and a few others have a bigger impact on the price movement of Etherea. Go check and see how big they're a buying. To give you an insight if it's going to do well. Like if the top five hittons are finding like crazy, then it'll be a okay.
So I'm not playing both sides. I'm just giving a price of where it could go by end of year, and if you're holding it, you should be holding a four or five year period anyway, as with any long term investment, those are bitcoin in the theory I go on record, are only two. I think you should not be trading. You should be holding if you believe in it.
Yeah, well, anybody that watches market one day's nose. I've been pretty consistent when it comes to Ethereum. I think it's the most important cryptocurrency. I think that it is.
Why is that by chance to play God's advocate.
God's advocate?
Because because of its use right, like you know, things are built on the etherium, on the Ethereum blockchain. Bitcoin is the most popular one. But outside of it being traded and outside of it just being bitcoin, which is like the brand name for cryptocurrency has kind of become like band.
Aid, that's it.
Where Ethereum is a whole ecosystem within itself and it's the largest one.
They have competitives.
Salona, different things of that nature, but it's still really no competition when you look at it. So being at it's the second biggest crypto, but a whole ecosystem, and it's improving. I feel like it's the most important cryptocurrency and will continue to be the most important cryptocurrency moving forward. And I feel like Ethereum is here to stay. I don't think that it's going to collapse. Of course, it's going to have ups and downs. Cryptos have up and down,
like that's crypto. If you don't if you don't want up and down, then you can't invest in cryptocurrency. But long haul, I believe in I believe in Ethereum. I have always believed in Ethereum, and I think that Ethereum will be here for a very long period of time.
I'll say this too, if we stay in a crazy interest rate environment and we stay in this like recession like economy while the market goes up and banks are more valuable, yeah, Ethereum will have a lot more value for sure, because the banks start to integrate it a lot more. For those who don't, you know, get to take go look at the episode that we had with Big Boy, which I think was a great episode, the Ethereum will be because every recession there's new products, new
services that are ushered in. Ethereum could be one of the ones that are integrated a hell of a lot faster. So when I was saying, hey, I think the banks are going to take over or maybe destroy, his thesis was what they're going to use etherea to integrate it into the banking system. So, yeah, if we stay in an environment where interest rates are high, tech stocks are down,
Peloton underperforms. If banks do better, Ethereum is going to have a very important place in the banking system to help banks dominate even more.
Yeah, and then the low that I'm looking at here was in July seventeenth to got down to nine to ninety three, and so right now it's currently an eight teen eighty six. So if somebody obviously entered the crypto space at that time made profit, I mean, I think we're right at the market was around April May when it was teetering around two thousand. Obviously it's high at forty eight hundred and last October.
So it's just interesting to watch.
But this is why we talk about being patient and understanding volatility and understanding that this asset class is a little bit different than the market, right, Like, these things are very violatile and it moves in a very fast way. But if you can understand the charts when you're trading stocks, then I mean you're gonna have the same principles that you can use when you're trying to trade crypto.
It's just that it's a lot more filatile.
If you guys need a entry, fifteen forty four seventy is a good place to get in if you if you haven't got in already as well, it's gonna slide back down, but that's a good place to be able to get in. And don't buy today. Wait for that price, please put in chat. Patience is what pays me, So wait for those right prices and.
Then you'll be able to get in and take advantage of the upside of it.
And once again, this is for a long term. So for those of you that are like taking my prices and remixing them and give them to your cousin for a two day swing, trade, this ain't it. I saw a lot of y'all Atlanta. Man. You let me down. No, you let me down. I said five here, I'm sorry. No gambling, no gambling hole for the long term.
And here's the rule of thumb, just an investing period. Always always bet on the ecosystems. So Amazon is an ecosystem. Apple is an ecosystem. What I mean by that is like, if Apple goes down, it's not just Apple going down. All of the apps in the Apps Store that rely on Apple, all of the like, these are things that have to go down.
So it's like economy will go down.
Yeah, it's it's like Nino Brown, like you know what I'm saying, when it was like it's bigger than you. No Brown, like when you some people are just too big to fail because if you take them down, everybody falls. So I feel like Ethereum is that for crypto. Ethereum is too big to fail. And if Etherium fails, it's going to have a tremendous ripple effect, even bigger than bitcoin. Bitcoin to have a tremendous psychological effect, a tremendous psychological
effect and a tremendous economic effect. But if Ethereum goes down, it's going to have a ripple effect across the whole ecosystem. So you have to look at it like this. There's trillions and billions of dollars invested into crypto, but most of it is with hedge funds and institutions, so they have a vested interest for the whole crypto space not
to fail. So being that they have a vested interest in the whole crypto space not to fail, they have to keep some coins up, like Etherium has to be caught until they have an equal competition that is willing to take it out. You can't afford for Ethereum to fail because it's going to be catastrophic for the whole entire space, and it's going to cost a lot of people money. And at the end of the day, nobody wants to lose money. You don't invest to lose money,
especially at the highest levels. So Ethereum is too big to fail.
And even like from a dominant standpoint, I don't know if anybody ever looks at that, but I'm looking at right now on coin market cap. I remember the days when bitcoin dominance. The percentage used to be in the sixties and the seventies. If you look now, it's at
forty percent. Ethereum is at twenty percent. This episode is brought to you by P and C Bank, a lot of people think podcasts about work are boring, and sure, they definitely can be, but understanding a professionals routine shows us how they achieve their success little by little, day after day. It's like banking with P and C Bank. It might seem boring to safe plan and make calculated decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring is what helps you live or more happily fulfilled life. P
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Erners. What's up?
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So that's interesting to look at.
Yeah, I see what she did with the ripple effect.
Shut out.
I mean, where else are you gonna get New Jack City and above the rim in the show? I mean, shout out to all the Ripple and XRP enthusiastic they are here. Burry dumbs all of his stocks except for one. What should that tell us about what's coming in the market. So for historical reference, if you don't know who Michael Berry is, if you haven't watched the movie The.
Big Short, You should very very time.
He's the one that made billions of dollars shortening the market in two thousand and eight for the housing crash, So you know, he became legendary for that situation. And now obviously anytime that he speaks, people take it very seriously because of what happened in two thousand and eight. So he's he's, I guess predicting that a very very cold winter in stocks is coming. We've had a nice little rebound in the last week or two, but he's he's not feeling it.
So what's the.
Deal with So yeah, I'm gonna let you just I'm gonna I just want to like frame this up right. So, there was thirteen positions that Sion had. That's the group that his firm, Right, they had thirteen stocks that they invested in. Google was one of them. They sold that off. Meta was one they sold that off. The one that they did keep is called geo Groups.
You ever heard of Geogroup?
Geogroup is a Florida based company that invests and operates private prisons. So I bought over three million dollars three million dollarsand shares of the geogroup, and since then that stock is going up twelve percent, which is interesting out of everything to sell off.
I mean, you had Fortune one hundred.
Like Google, Alphabet, you had Alphabet, and you had Metal, which is another you know, top ten as far as market cap, but you let those go and you kept the company that invests in private prisons.
And if you ever, I mean, we've talked about.
This in detail about the impact that private prisons have on our communities for sure, and how you know they profit off of making prisoners.
So that's interesting. I'll let you I'll let you go in, I'll finish it up.
Yeah. The reason, well, let's address it the private prison thing. I'm anti investing in prison and I don't care how much money is involved. I will never invest in the sector. The reason why they did, though, is because it's an indication of who's going to be in office when election cycles turn over. So if you talk to anybody politically, they're pretty much telling you like, hey, these next three to four years, politically, Escape is going to change very
aggressively and very fast. But the reason why he sold off Meta he also had an Apple short that he got rid of. Now We're just in the middle. It's not an ideal time to initiate, and he buys. So if you're looking to put capital to use right now, things aren't low enough to buy, they're not high enough to short. So we kind of just riding in the middle. But
since crime is going up, we're going to have to change. Politically, Hey just said, I don't see how Biden could win reelection unless the rock runs with him and the current VPCE sits down and we can talk about the Trump thing later with the FBI, but they are potentially propping him up for a run again. Things are going to change very fast. And that's what I'm saying now. If China collapses on top of that next year, which you know, I know something gonna back. I'm a conspiracy do this.
But home sales are down twenty eight point six percent in China. Private investment homes are down twelve point three percent. So if home sales are down twenty eight percent, and I know everybody on Instagram, every realtor is telling the
market is still going up. No, it's not. China is our parent, so if they have the flu, financially, we're going to get pneumonia next year or COVID twenty five, right, and things are going to be bad, and we're going to go through a period for maybe two or three years where it feels like ninety nine through two thousand and one, two thousand and two all over again, where we're just floating up and down and we're not having any breakout movement. Private equity is deploying capital a little slower.
We're just not in a great economic environment. The great part is if you're an investor and you can wait this out. The number one advantage that we have is retail investors, is that we can hold longer the most institutions. That's for all the money is so we have fourteen years of quantitative easing, free flowing money. Now, the people that can actively invest and be patient and hold for
long term are going to win. So when everybody was getting an easy option, trade train options are all not y'all, I'm talking easy penny stocks. I know there's a little war on campaign against me. Hey where are we now, Kathy have an issue? You can't cycle through all those stocks in all those trades. Now we're going to see who actually can invest. But it's going to be a game of long term. So please look at the big picture, the macroeconomic environment. I know it seems scary, but this
is the time that you want. Everybody in twenty twenty was like, damn, I wish the market would come down. Here we are now you get an opportunity to build for the future, suffer and sacrifice for two or three years to be able to get your family in the position that you want to be.
And if you're scared in this market to invest, either you have not listened.
To me or you have not done your research that' said. And yes, listen to Michael Berry, because damn near everything he said and predicted is come true.
So all right, let's talk about this China situation. Since you were from Shina a few times so far, to show you said China at the beginning, you said China will collapse. You want to put that into context. I'm gonna I'm gonna give you opportunity to put this into context.
Mike, clip this up. China gonna fall, So I'm gonna do Look like all the spicies.
What's the first domino is? It is the housing market?
Yeah, it's the house of market because they're going through what we really went to through in two thousand and seven and two thousand and eight, like two things I told you guys last year. Now, if y'all don't listen, that don't have nothing to do with me. Baby. Ever, grand number one, Now if the following four, two through
five fall apart. And now if you saw a couple of weeks ago they had military trucks in front of the bank saying you can't take your money out of our bank because that is considered an investment of ours.
What is that call for those of you who work in the financial industry.
So now if you can't withdraw, and the real estate market is soft to say the least. And then you got soft Bank who was throwing money around like they would spend the money in Magic City into all these startups and most of them didn't do well. What does that tell you they are just they went through a cycle of growth of grandeur how we went through in two thousand and seven to two thousand and eight, and
now they're going to pay the price. And now because they own a lot of our debt and intellectual property, we are going to feel it as well. So I know people are not going to agree. My job is to not tell you what you want to hear. My job is to tell you the truth, and let's be very honest. Put yes in chat. If you've heard me say crazy stuff like this before before every hedge fund, before Buffett, and then three months later it's like, yeah, this is a lot of markets falling, you'll make a
lot more. Just listen, be real, just listen to what I tell you. If not, if not, the people who say that I'm wrong, tell them to put some money in your pocket. If I made you money, let me get guess in chat. We're gonna end all debating. I know everybody wanted the bait show and y'all want to do a million dollars worth of Game Stock edition. No, it's a big show here, the.
Big show, the biggest, the biggest. I clipped this up, the big show.
Okay, hot take Ian.
It's database ever grand is bigger.
But when you when you say collapse, I mean, what do you actually mean? Coluse that's a very end This is something in this is This is China, bro, this is the this is the world's strongest economy in the next ten years. This is gonna be This isn't this isn't just the regular country.
This is China.
Mathematically, if a country or any entity, like, at what point how much risk and how much leverage can you use before it has negative ramifications on your GDP or on your business. There's no business that is too big to fail, no country. We see it with our country right now. America is a America's Hulk Hogan right now last night, Rick Flair, who bet you boy? Was that in the eighties? Not right now? Hanging on by a threat. If we took Apple away, Microsoft, Google, Man, we'll be
third world country. It's scary, but third third world country. Take Apple, Microsoft, and Google out of our economy.
That's top Like, that's top four in the world.
Though, I mean, what is the GDP? Someone put it in chat. What's the market cap of Apple, Microsoft, and Google? Subtract that from the GDP? What percentage of GDP to those three companies add to our economy? Is America better now than it was even twenty years ago?
Those are all billion dollar companies.
That's like saying.
That's like saying, if you take Lebron James and and Kyrie Irvin and Steph Curry away from the NBA.
I mean, if you take the best Yeah, of course, like but.
But look at it like this. The rest of the S and P is Eric Snows, Eric snow cousins. I don't want an issue. I'll just say Eric, but like they're okay. Even when we get to talking about Bitcoin, Ethereum, algorand x RP, these are coins like these are There's been more innovation in the coin market in the last five years then there's been innovation in corporate America in the last fifty. Even Tessa without Elon Tesla is a
cute fod. He's a driving force behind it. If if the talent ran Tessla, nobody would want a Tesla, yes or no, I don't everybody think these are hot takes. Ye listen and Josh should say the same ship and people will be like, oh my god, it was Jesus. So just like this ship is law.
Fifty first law right here, the ramifications right, I mean, obviously too big to fail. So I'm thinking, like, obviously we saw what happened when when we had economic downturn, the government does whatever it takes. I'm assuming, I mean from China they would probably do the same. But I want, I know most people are wondering, like obviously their housing market How's it gonna affect ours directly?
Their banking system? How's that gonna affect us here directly? Obviously we don't bank with chrying. It's not even something that that's that we do.
So how will it affect I guess the average American if that does happen.
If they have a pull back. And when I say crash, I mean I don't mean collapse, and then they're going to go like they're going to fall apart, like they'll economy be down for two or three years, and then they'll initiate like a bailout package as well, and then things will be fine. So I don't mean like they're going to collapse and then fucking fall into the oship.
My graduates from my school being force back drop drop Mike drop back.
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