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That's in p. Five hundred. Has returned fifteen percent in the first half of the year with an unusually smooth ride. So what are your thoughts on the performance so far this year? For those that feel they have may have missed out on this run, what do you recommend?
This is why holding long term is key blockbuster a year. So as a result, when we are up this much halfway throughout the year, we usually either end up twenty six percent positive for the year or we end up eight percent. I know there's a lot of analysts predicting a thirty percent drop from here. I don't see it happening. I don't know where you're getting your numbers from. If you get the iPad, the new iPad with the chet
GPT in it, you'll see true mathematical formulas off. So maybe you need to adjust, but I think we should end up at least twenty twenty one percent up for the year. The biggest lesson is to hold ets and indexes for the long term. I don't like, I don't know. I know two tech two index has almost become like catchy and gimmicky at this point. But there's a reason why. If you look in twenty twenty, that's p why it was that two twenty seven, it's now at five to
forty five. So through COVID, through presidential concerns, through leadership, through sectoration, lies, this has continued to go up. So pick one that you want to invest in, hold on to it daily for five years, ten years, and you'll be good.
So you're saying twenty one percent, that means that we're gonna at minimum climate another six percent. If I'm backing recor yes, no, so here that that's pretty that's great because here's what the math has shown since over the past forty years. Over the past forty years, the essen Yeah, you know, I want to do a little research. So over the past forty years, the S and P has gone up in double digit percentage in the first half
of the year. Out of those fourteen times that has done it, it's gone higher twelve times, so that's eighty six percent, right on average. When it does this, it goes up on average a minimum of ten percent. Oh wow, okay, I'm under yeah, right, you're right. I mean, if you're saying six that's actually undershooting it. It actually does ten
percent higher. And so I mean that's a lot pretty good research, right, We're talking about forty years of data, and it really it comes down to what these techtocs do pretty much. So the first half of the year, Nvidia contributed to thirty percent of the gains in the S ANDP that Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon collectively, those three companies
collectively contributed to twenty six percent. So you got four companies that have contributed to nearly well over fifty percent of the gains in the S and P. Four companies. So people came into this year. Obviously, twenty twenty three was a reboundier in tech from twenty twenty two. We all thought the fred rate was going to happen six of them that hasn't happened it. We got zero. But on video and the AI revolution has carried it for the first half m hm. The question is like, so
people actually should they get in? Well, yeah, what are your thoughts on the AI revolution? What do you think about in video and with the presumed let's say two FED cuts like that will probably happen. Do those conditions warrant you to say, yes, it's time. This is based on the research that I've done, this is a time that I should get in. People talk about pullbacks all the time. Can it happen? Yes, It's happened two times out of the last forty years when the SSP has
had a double ditch game. So is it possible? Yes? What does the historical data show us eighty six percent of the time it doesn't.
Yeah, we can make this more complicated than it needs to be, but it's always a good time to invest in the S and P five hundred. That's the whole point of index FINT. In any research, whether it's Warren Buffett, whether it's Paul tudor joke. Everybody has always championed index funds as the safest way to invest by dollar cost averaging by putting amounts of money into it every single month because you get the total market and that so it's never a bad time to invest in index funds.
That's the easiest way to go. Like I said, we can make it more complicated if you wanted to, if you want it, if you wanted to be more complicated, because you feel like that's going to help you in your quest for you know, superior information and you feel like you're a market expert. But the short answer is that you should always invest in the S and P five hundred every single month because that's the most intelligent way to actually go about it, and it's the safest way to go.
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