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What is an economic indicator that you look at to give you a hedge in the market.
Ah, that is a good one. I look at M two money supply.
Ooh, so money supply hasn't talked about enough, but it shows you, like the flows of actually the actual money in the market in different sectors. So when I saw we had a dramatic zip around October November, I was like, okay, maybe spending this getting a little bit softly. We got to be careful not to put so much capital into the market. And as this went up, it shows that the market is stead of going back up and there's
a lot more safety. So like when you have technical indicators like there's two hundred day moving average seventy two, when you're looking at an economic indicator, you can see the spending literally drop or go up. So in twenty nineteen, twenty twenty, it was going up tremendously and everything was on four fire, crypto housing, market stocks.
NFT's real estate.
But then as we had a halt, we saw that the market saw the to collapse as So that's the economic indicator that I'd like to use to get a great gauge on the market.
That's a good one. I always thinking about the technical ones.
For the average person who's listening, I could begin moving averages are good, Yeah, new highs, new lows. What do you think about CPI? I know every time you watch, you watch CNBC, you watch any these business shows. They talk about the importance of CPI to consumer price index, how much we're spending, how much it costs for the things that we're spending as an economic factor to see where the money's going and inflation coming down.
It takes a lot of curs to do so because there could be a lot of losses there. But trading a CPR report, if you can get to move right, you can make a ton of money. Shot to my gotpe, like two weeks ago he called a move and I want to tell I mean the dollar round, but I mean he probably caught like one hundred and twenty percent gainer in one day in less than like ten fifteen minutes.
So like once you know what the numbers are going to be, you can plan in your favorite You can definitely end up making a lot of money as a result. Trading has considerable risk, absolutely, Police and social advisor always say take three hundred practice trades before you go live to.
Mitigate any risk.
But that that report is very key for sure, non far and payroll is another one that's important as.
Well, So.
Like percentage wise, how much is that in percent with making a decision whether you should put money to the stock market or not.
M two money supply Yeah, for me, probably thirty forty percent because it's a bigger macro indicator. Likes that you have smaller reports that are key. But what I'm looking at, like, I would say top two would be like GDP growth or decline, and then M two money supply. That's a shorter term indicator to look at, but it definitely has
an impact on how the market is you. I would challenge everyone to go look at like a ten year chart of the M two money supply, see the ebbs and flows, and see when M two money supply dips, does the market dip with the in correlation? And when it goes up does the market go up in correlation. It's really fascinating to see those two pair together.
Yeah, I mean, if I'm an investor, I'm a trader, I'm just adding that tool to my belt. You have to, right, So, if I didn't know about the M two money supply, I add that to looking at the CPI I might add that to looking at the unemployment data. Yep, so I get a pretty good synopsis of what the economy is looking like. Sometimes when you look at the charts and you're looking at it doesn't give you a fear synopsis of what's really happening.
Right, especially over the past month and two moving.
Right, we've seen like the top nine just push the market, push the brcket, push the market.
It kind of feels like the whole market is moving, but it's not.
It's kind of like Kyrie's lay package, like he can finish with the left, finished with the right. Like the more tools you have in your back. Of course, interest rates are the most important. So if it's like creates market is going to fall apart if they pause, that's a sign for like a little bit of optimism. If they cut rates too fast, that it'll lead to deflation.
But you want to have all these tools in your arsenal to have the real information as banks, hedge funds are looking at and countries and looking at to make economic decisions.
And we saw a pause, not a freeze, but a pause. We didn't even have a conversation, but that was your thoughts though, like thank god, right, so it's like do we slow down? And people looking at it from a standpoint where it's like, okay, they're not going to raise rates again, even though they said that another two quarters might happen throughout the course of the year, but that looks like it might be the ceiling for it.
Yeah, I believe that rates again, But the pausing of the interest rates hike was key because if they continue to raise, I think it would drain all optimism out of the market, because who actually eventually end up with interest rates being like seven and a quarter percent?
It would be too high.
Like particularly even when I'm hearing some mortgage rates that people have now compared to just two years ago, I'm like, some people are paying double for the same house if they have like a six fifty credit score. Now it is insane. So, like, those interest rates are very key. But I'm glad that they did pause. I can't reads it's funny now Camron and makes it is it.
Is a different pause.
Yeah, So let's talk about Elon Musk stated that deflation is coming. What is deflation? And do you believe this will happen soon? So we talked a lot about inflation. So I you know, anybody that you probably can guess what deflation is if you don't.
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Know what deflation is is the opposite of inflation. But yet talk about deflation and if you think that that's coming soon.
You want to take it first, I'll lead. Yeah, Deflation is just advanced price declines. F Inflations is when prices are going up. Deflations are advanced price declines. You really want everything to remain stable? Do I think it will come?
I don't.
I'm not sure yet, But I will say with all the information that Elon has and how focused he's been, I'm sure he is seeing something. And I think the overall point that he's making And I never will want a pile seat by any chance.
I would never want the job.
But I think what Elon is alluding to is like interest rates got hyped up a little bit too fast, and what if they start cutting we'll have the inverse issue and when we have too much money supply, like everything the value of everything went up too fast and now they're trying to correct it. And like it's the same thing when you're driving a car. If you correct too quickly, that is what can ultimately cause an accident. So I think we just need to have things stable.
Deflation maybe could come and maybe a year, but I hope it doesn't.
Yeah, this is the when we talk about having a soft landing.
Yes, this is exactly what they're talking about, right, Like we figured out that zero percent interest rates don't work, right, but you raise them and like you said, we could get up to six percent at at a certain point, but where do we want to land right, And this talks that, hey, we need to get it down to two percent. Well, if we're at six, how do we get there safely? How do we safely get down to two?
And so it becomes a fine balance. And again it sounds crazy, but like people are going to have to lose jobs, right because you got to have the unemployment rate go up, which is like for the average person, it's going to affect you, it is, right, And so that's why you try to make this as soft as possible quote unquote the soft landing, so that it's a steady process. It's stabilized to a point where it's like, right,
this isn't a harsh effect. Right, We're just not going to turn this thing upside down palls, but we're going to figure out a way to make sure that the economy stays stable. Right, people still can be employed, and it doesn't go back to all right, well we raised it, we've got it lowered, this isn't working.
We got to hike him again.
Yeah, And I think it's really tough to have a soft landing with our transparency, Like they've been clear on what they want to do, but it doesn't seem confident in any of the decisions they want to make. Like one week it feels like we're going to raise rates for the next two years. Then the pushback isn't positive, and then they change tune a little bit. I think if they just honestly said, hey, here's what the plan is.
We'll have rough eighteen months or two years, but for the next ten years it's will be better, I think most business owners and governments could handle that. It's the indecision that really leads to a lot of the Confederate part.
Of it was, you know, even in twenty twenty two, when you know, we saw that their rates were going to be raising throughout the next six to eight months, it was like, this is going to stop in March, and here we are in June and this and there might be two more. I feel like the market doesn't believe. Yes, I don't saying anymore. Right, there's not like that firm confidence, like ah, he's saying it, but it alls did. Then why not just you know, have the raid hike in June.
Why not have it in a few weeks here coming in July. Why not just have it consistently rather than pause it and say, all right, we're seeing the numbers cool down to a pace that we like, all right, but we still have an option, right. I think he's just leaving it as a variable option just in the event that the numbers start peeking back to a point that is unsatisfactory to him. So it's like, all right, we'll raise it because I told you I would, And I don't.
Think he's doing a bad job. But I think we all knowing being the leader, you have to have a very clear and firm path on what you're going to like blaze the trail. We've seen it with Alan Greenspan a little bit with Bernek. I think we need that from him, but I mean, it's one of the most difficult jobs on earth to correct, and because ideally zero interest rate environment is great for the short term, but
it hurts us long term. And now he's in a driver's seat, after all, this zuberance has been rushing around for fifteen years, and now you have to be the one to say, hey, no more fun, no more parties, like we're on financial punishment right now.
That's a tough job to have.
So the interesting part is that as those rates start to come down, you think which type of companies benefit the most of that?
Tech for sure, right right, fintech, most finance companies that were like running thin on margin, those will come back. Maybe automotive will come back as a result, but who knows if it would be short lived.
My first thought was the tech sector.
It's like, all right, the price to do business obviously goes down, infrastructure goes down, logistics goes down.
That helps it the economy.
Especially from the you know when we talk about what's leading it tech and so those companies that we talk about, those top nine that we continuously I know you say Apple and Microsoft.
I mean that's a great benefit a small cap. Some of the ross RUSS two thousand will go because.
My graduates from my school being forced back drop b drop, Mike drop back drop drop.
An illegal alien from guatem charged with raping a child in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States
Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you are here illegally, your next you will be fine nearly one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported, you will never return. But if you register using our CBP home app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws, border and families will be protected.
Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,