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¶ Ian Dunlap's Top Stock Picks in a Down Market
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All right, So the question is that everybody wants to know is too far? How far will the stock market fall? So they can know when to get in. And then also a lot of companies are down right and Video
¶ Troy Millings' Defense of Nvidia
is down over twenty five percent Microsoft, Microsoft is down, Apple is down to TSM is down over twenty percent. Out of all of those like major blue chip companies, what's the what's the most attractive right now in this down market that we're in.
I will go Microsoft first, TIA some second, and Video third. Really, I'm here to give truth if y'all have got good almostly DC. I don't care. Y'all should have been looking. I told you when it was gonna fall. Yeah, And notice when everybody start copying on CNBC and some of you Internet gurus, everyone's like it's easy analysis. I'm like,
why didn't you say it two months ago? Like if a company goes up eleven x over a two or three year period, how many deviations does it have to revert to the mean for the price to level up? So I think the MV be a move right now, is overvalued. I think TSM may be underpriced.
Now.
Who's going to win in the end? Microsoft because they have relationships on both sides. They're buying from both cartels, so they'll be fine. But I will put TSMS second. For everybody in stock club, you're not paying our price is our price? If I made you money, please put yes in chat. But normally we're moved. I'm not looking for the obvious investment. I'm looking for a contrarian investment. And unless China overtakes, I don't think it happened this year.
Maybe next please please I hope not, because if not, we really we Why two K didn't happen. But why two twenty five four if they get if.
They get ts, yeah, let's overweight twenty thirty or something like that. Maybe hopefully never, but at least by that time when we have boundaries here on on all soil.
So Microsoft is the most attractive thing that you see right now, hands down.
So I'm going to disagree with you, okay, and I'm going to put in videos still at number one. Well a couple of reasons, and Microsoft is part of the reason. If we're talking about Capex and even with Microsoft reported that was an issue and Amazon reported That's when.
I was like, all right, this is glaring, this is clear and meta as well.
But Microsoft, Amazon specifically, which we noticed my is my favorite company. When I was looking at the spendshers and I'm like, well they increased spending by forty three percent, Like wow, well where did it go?
Yep AI Innovation who they spending it with.
Of course you got to spend it with half, right, So you.
Spend it with them, that's Amazon. Well, then you go into Microsoft and the same thing. Cap X were obviously already know their relationship with open Ai, which is getting you got to keep eye on that relationship. Because it's it feels like something tricky is about to happen. But again,
¶ Legal and Market Challenges for Nvidia
AI innovation, who are they spending it with? And video matter?
Sam Allman. If you think you're gonna run off of the plug of Microsoft, it feels yea, I'll put you on a plane with both. First.
Now you look like you're trying to run off with the plane.
You can try. You're going to be one eight some rumblings.
Right, So now you've got Amazon, you got Microsoft, and now Meta again when you they already told you their commitment to it, to the spending, and they've said, look, we're in the beginning stages of this. We're not slowing down for a second, right, And so you got these three major huge mega caap you're talking about trillion dollar evaluations or market caps if all of them are spending with this person, that person still remains dominant to me.
The fact that it's come down under ninety and we kind of hinted it last week when we were like, what what's the number? We hinted at it. Now that it's down at I think it hit ninety four today. I was on a plane pissed somebody, right, Oh my gosh, I like it at this number, and so I put them at number one. I have TSM at three, and I'm I'm I'm going to move.
Apple back in there.
Even with the sell off from the oral of Omaha, I still like Apple.
We got to talk about it.
The service business.
When I looked at the earnings, I said, oh, my gosh, you're talking about eighty three billion. I mean, how many companies even have that evaluation, which is ridiculous. But the technology inside of the New sixteam, from what everybody's saying, and I know this is still in the beta phase, is that this isn't one of those situations where oh, I'll wait to get the next phone. If you want to have the capabilities, you have to get this phone. Yeah, So I throwing them in there, and then I'll put TSM.
Speaking of capabilities, so you're still having video b A number one. Even though they put black Ball.
On hold, they didn't put it on hold.
So what the kids saying, So this is good.
I'm glad you said that.
So the.
Rumblings are that it is being delayed.
They're not going to be shipped out at the same capacity that they said they were going to. They're still going to be shipped out at the and this year it won't be at the same level of capacity, and it has to do with TSM.
Really, TSM does it.
They're trying to keep up with the demand and have the actual technology that they need to create those ships for blackwell, yeah, it's super challenging, and so they're trying to keep up with the demand, which now again supply chain situation. Now that's when put out class Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's it's tricky because the slogan was new product every year, and the first year that you announced it, we're having a delay on.
The first product. So that is a little shaky.
So okay. For n Video, they are facing an anti trust lawsuit. Florida based hedge fund with seventy billion dollars in assets, sent a letter to their clients recently saying mega megacap technology stocks were in a bubble and it was very skeptical that big tech companies would keep buying chip makers graphics processing units GPUs in such high value. Hedge Fund warns that chip stocks may be in a bubble, which have enjoyed a huge rally from driven investors fevering
over genitive AI. So long story short, they were they were they're bullish on their bearish on in video they said that gob hype bubble. The demand is going to slow down, and like I said, they have they have a pending lawsuit from the government anti trust.
Sounds good, you gotta go kiss the listen. You already sold two million bricks. You y'all lost some black Well, like ho there back in the day, It's okay, it's okay. The truth. Is there going to be some slow down as the person that made this a catalyst stock? Yeah? Is it going to fall to the floor? No, no, absolutely, But is there going to be as like it's all okay. I'll ask you guys, have you ever seen a company have seven x growth every year over year for a
five or six year period. We're I take the stock and product out of it, we're entering a mathematical anomaly.
Well, remember I don't know if remember, but remember when I I was talking about Ripple, and then I also was saying that, like, you know, when Ripple got to the point where it's market cap made the CEO like the fifth richest person in the world, and it really just and then I was saying, like, you know, I just didn't think that in video was a more like when they had when they have market caps and they're bigger than every company in the world. Damn there, Google, Amazon.
I just don't think that in video is a is a company that is more valuable than a lot of these companies that they have higher valuations than it just at a certain point time such.
Which one, Yeah, who would you put there?
Well, and then we have a conversation about the AI bubble being true and over.
I just don't think that in video is a more important company like in the grand scheme of life right now and what Google has built, what Amazon has built. At one point they was more valuable than Apple, Like I mean, you know, it's it's it's difficult, Like you know what I mean. It's like somebody that just got drafted and they are ready in the goat conversation after
two years, I'm saying, Lebron, that's twenty years. So it's like, all right, so if you so now you say Anthony Edwards is better than Michael Joyan, right, if you want to.
Ti of them first two three years, maybe if he came out to Game one. Okay, this is the true and video is powering all the major tech companies at some point though, if Blackwell does not coming out of the speed that it needs to, somebody could take that lead. That lead could go to TSM. We're in a battle off than that, Like that was aie that co pilot runs off of. Everyone reacts the ship.
It's still contingent though, right, Like so it's still contingent on TSM producing. So they actually they need each other. They don't until and Video decides that.
But that, I mean, it's an inevitable and video cannot Number three rule and branding. You cannot be attached to a supplier for a long period of time if you want to be the pre eminent leader in the world. Apple went through this. But like you've got to detach and make your own stuff on ground especially so now you the point now, now, yeah, that was the point I was going to.
It's like, yes, they will detach, right, and then if they detach, which is going to take ten years, right, if you even get to the technologies, what happens to the revenue If you're not spending with the company that is building your chips, the revenue goes up. The valuation is going to go higher. If everybody That's why I said, if it's a slow down, then go read Meta's earnings report. Correct, Go read Microsofts, Go read Amazons, go read Apples. Where
is their capecks going? If it's a slowdown, then those companies wouldn't be spending at that levels that they are. And each of those CEOs said that we're not slowing down anytime soon.
Yep, also too. Y'all know, historically I've hated RSI, but if we look at the RSI on the Monkey, my real numbers is ninety five and five. It is the last like big ninety fives.
Which one are you looking at?
What company? Nvidia currently? They're currently at sixty nine right now, So if we're going off mathematical averages, they should pull back for sixty two to ninety four days as a result. Great bond opportunity if it gets there. But we have been over sold, and I do agree with evaluation metric, but we have to have a bigger conversation in corporate America. Enough companies are not producing shit that really matters. That's
my issue. So if they are the supplier the cartel to all the tech monopolies and only seven companies can really buy from them, what about the military companies that are falling apart would have low profit margin three percent profit marks. You can't run a company off three percent profit margins.
Do you ask that question?
No, great rate cuts.
So we spoke about data dump and the answer to that question is the number two supply. So even during this pullback, if you watch AMD over the past week two weeks, it's been kind of steady. There's actually been up maybe two or three percent because of some of that issue. But I agree with you, right, and we kind of went over this a few weeks ago. But we have to get to the point where they're going to have to start seeing the byproduct of the spend. Right,
has it increased efficiency? Probably has it increased revenue? We don't know.
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