Let's talk about the bull market.
Is the bull market?
Here? Are we in a bull market? And if so, how long will it last? Yeah, it's just something that we should look at because I guess Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley states that his latest rally is a head fake at forty two hundred level? Is he correct?
Or should we continue to buy at this level?
I mean I definitely wouldn't buy the S and P five hundred and forty two hundred flat or above because it's a little bit too high. I like to like going back to the seven zel thing. I would like to wait for discounts, but they're pushing us up higher. I mean the SMP opened up this year at thirty nine or nine. We're at forty two sixteen some change.
And this is why I always say, like regardless of war, recession, election, scandal, false positives like extinction level events that are being predicted, they are all gonna find ways for the market to go up. That like I always say, the market is rid to go up, and because if not, the number of people that will leave hedgephons and banks are it
would bankrupt the country. So that they are gonna find ways. Now, I don't like that there's only maybe thirty or forty companies that are of incredible value to push this up, and it's a lot of the mega caps pushing everything up. But this bull market is here to stay now that I always have said that the stock market is detached from what's going on in the actual economy. There's two different games. They're not a pure reflection of one another.
But yeah, the S and P is up. If I look at NASDAK, NASDAK is.
Growing too.
NAZDAC opened up at eleven thousand, ninety where thirteen forty one. We'll talk about the Japanese market, but the NK opened up at twenty five thousand, nine thirty five this year were thirty one thousand. We're clearly in a bullmarket now will stay. That depends on a few things, and this debt crisis is one of them. But for right now we are up and as stuck right now currently stuck.
Yeah, I feel like eight months ago we were talking about what would twenty twenty three look like, when we were talking about, well, we know that interest rates are going to stop rising at some point, and I think we might be there.
If we're not, this quarter will find it. At the next FED meeting, we.
Saw inflation slow down, and I remember talking about earnings and everybody was very skeptical about first quarters earnings and second quarters earnings and how companies were losing money. And we've pretty much seen a lot of companies. They didn't They didn't lose too much. This episode is brought to
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Well, we got to be honest about that. They revised, God even Apple, let me.
Apple, Well Apple has as well.
They revised, but they still made nearly one hundred million last quarter.
That's true, right, So and if I put into the like the iPhone sales data now like when you count it.
But even a company like Amazon, they did over one hundred many. So, like when we're talked about a gross pullback in some of these earnings data is because of what inflation the impact that inflation had done in twenty twenty one, and we're looking at it, Is.
It really as bad as we thought, it's my question?
Or did we over over try to anticipate something that was going to be extremely negative and it's not looking that way.
Well, I'm gonna give a little I won't say pushback with feedback. I'm gonna go back to the earlier thirty of San Francisco. Real estate is currently vacant. I haven't got the numbers from New York, Chicago, and Miami. I would assume New York is probably at twenty percent commercial real estate. Yep, you think it's higher.
I think they said twenty.
I mean, yeah, I might might be more.
So in four or five major markets. That's correction territory.
Well, here's the thing. So the crazy thing is I live across the street from I live across the street from an office building, a mall and an office building.
You anybody in there? They're all vacant, even to anybody. Do I ever see anybody? I don't think I've ever seen like the one across from.
All its building it used to be once COVID came. I don't think they never really reopened it. But so that's three that's three commercial properties that are vacant.
So I mean, I think it's a reflection. I think the economy is a lot worse than what they're saying. But I think they're playing the three card Monte game like they're they're taking the companies that are doing incredibly well overinflating some of the games in the stock market to make it seem as if everything is stable when the overall economy is not doing incredibly well.
Yeah, the recession is secular.
Yeah, And now, I mean based on what you're saying, so like, and this is what Dave girls are saying too.
Real estate is on the commercial real estate is on the clock.
My graduates from my school being forced back drop drop, Mike, drop back drop.
An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States
Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will never return. But if you register using our CBP home app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
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