Cliff Notes: THE TOP 10 SECRETS TO INVESTING with Ian Dunlap

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It does not have to be. After you read two three hundred books, you're going to come to the same assessment of you're either going to ultra focus on a few or you're going to index, add bonds to your mix and have a concentrated portfolio that's spread out across the market. I want you to put in chat, which one are you going to do? Are you going to be hyper focused on a few or are you going to spread it out and get exposure to everything in the market. But type and chat, investing is not hard,

especially when you're holding for the long term. I want you to go to Barons after tonight and look up this article how to turn three thousand into forty one million lessons from investing in a century. Kudos to al for that amazing article. Number two, The best companies in the world focus on global domination across multiple industries. Homework item number two. I want you to go look at the number of companies that Apple and Amazon have acquired

since two thousand and three. They look like Lucian Grange's budget for acquisition of artists at Universal. If you look at everything that they've acquired, it's twenty to forty companies. Inside of those businesses that comprises one brand, that being Apple and Amazon and Microsoft as well. Second tier companies focus on incremental growth and their competitors. So back in the day, back in the Bomber days, there was an over emphasis on trying to beat Apple. There was not

a high emphasis on being best for your customer. So for those of you with businesses that own brands obsess over your customers or clients' lives getting better, kudos you in the stock club. I know, I don't know. I always answering if you guys call, but I've tried to do my damn best to give you some of the highest terms in the market. And then if you look, Amazon shipped one point five billion packages over the holidays, that's going to put a lot of pressure on Postal Service

DHL and any other carrier as well. So they've required eleven more planes to ship faster, and at some point we may even have same day shipping be a norm in a five or six year period. Number three, please write this down. Marry the brand that you love the most, if there's a religious movement behind it. Let me say it again. Marry the brand that you love the most, and if there's a religious movement behind it. The Apple stores the church. Steve Jobs was the messianic figure. Apple was,

of course their version of the cross. The iPad was their Bible. Tesla's going through a similar run now. You can argue in the nineteen eighties and nineteen nineties that IBM had a similar structure. Amazon is going through it now, Starbucks, and there's Nike. There's about fifteen brands we can name. But if you absolutely love a brand and everyone tells you that you're crazy, and even for those of you that love bitcoin, right, if there is a brand that

you love, you need to tie your money to that. Potentially, I'm not an advisor, so I can tell you what to do, but tie your money to that. For the lifetime of you investing into the market. It's the fourteenth anniversary of Apple's iPhone ten thousand and would have been four hundred and forty seven thousand. Now. I remember having a first iPhone. I did not invest ten grand I kicked myself and asked for it every single day. So

I'm telling you from personal experience. And then as you get older, for those of you that are in your twenties, you're gonna feel like your thirties are never gonna come, and you're gonna lookup. You're gonna have kids and responsibilities and bills, and you're gonna be like, damn, I should have invested. I was into this hot thing when it was first getting popular. A ten year holding period is almost perfect for every asset class. Please write this down.

So the average return for indexes seven to twelve percent. If you look at tech, the average return on a yearly basis is gonna between fifteen and thirty two percent,

depending on which company you pick. The average return for real estate is ten point five percent, and the average return for art over the same period it's ten percent a year over the last four decades, so a five year horizon is actually short and tonight, I'm gonna give you the timeframe that works the best to hold your investment to almost guarantee that you will receive a return on your investment. Now, uh, this is key. Please write this down. If you don't take anything else from my

segment from the show, write this down. The three most important ending didicators in investing. One quantitative easing, so if the FED stops printing money, especially during the recession, we will go to hell in the hand basket very fast. Number two then verted yield curve. We talked about it many times. It's the only indicator that predicts recessions one hundred percent of the time. And every single one of you that are watching should have an alert set for

when we cross Number three. A twenty year hold in the market, So ten years in the S and P five hundred, you will be positive ninety four zero point one percent of the time, which is amazing. That takes almost all the risk away. But if you hold the S and P five hundred over twenty year period, and you can look over any twenty year period, you're damn near guaranteed to win. Now, of course, investment has considerable risks that would change if the Fed stops printing money.

If we lose our stronghold and venture capital Silicon Valley, and then transitioning from incubation to go in public, that could change. If your currency, of course, could be an issue. There's a bunch of threats that are there. And also we'll talk one day about where we are in the cycle of empires and maybe our Josh said tonight as well. But over a twenty year period, you won't lose in the market. And I know the tough part is if you're getting started, you're like, I don't want to wait

twenty damn years to see a return. I'm not saying that you have to wait twenty to see a return, but over a twenty year period, especially if you have kids or grandchildren, it's the best time frame for you to hold through. Look at this. I love this. The grandchildren that you love will have freedom.

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fifty nine thousand percent since inception. Apple is up one hundred and twenty four thousand percent since in s and you guys can go to macrotrends dot net if you think that I've fell off a chair and hit my head and made these numbers up. Bitcoin is up ninety six thousand percent since twenty eleven. And I'm not the biggest bitcoin fanboy there is, but you can't argue with the growth, especially since twenty eleven and then Monster Beverage is a company that people still continue to sleep on

year after year. They're up three hundred and sixty six thousand percent. Now let me ask you this, how much better would your life have been if your grandparents had invested in one of these companies for you? And there's some for those of you that love Tesla. If you think that Tesla will have a run and Neurallink will dominate and SpaceX will dominate, are you willing to hold Tesla of twenty thirty forty years for your grandchildren so

they can have a better life? Want you to make the decision because it will greatly affect if they act up. You can always take the money and use it for yourself and for those of you that have passed on money to your children, you know usually in two or three generations they blow the money anyway. So it's a good hedge for yourself. We talked about this before, but

time in the market. So the length of time that you hold plus capability to time the market plus invest in the assets will low draw down is a gift from God. So if you look at Apple, you can do this. Go to microtrends dot net and you can see how often does a company or index draw down. Draw Down means to lose money. So Apple is up over a forty year period sixty seven point five percent of the time. The crazy part is over the last decade, they haven't closed negative ten percent for ten years now.

Two thousand and eight. They had a rough patch, of course, and before this next transition and shift the power from Steve running the company to ten running it, they had quite a few more draw outs. But to look at the last decade and for a company with that market cap to not have drawn down and stayed under ten percent is absolutely amazing. And this is one When I saw it, I was like, I cannot believe this is true.

Because of COVID, twenty three percent of all money that's ever been printed in the history of the FED was done in twenty twenty. You need the market to be able to hedge. And now I don't think we'll I'm not an economist, but I don't think we'll print this

much money again in twenty twenty one. But given everything that happened in the capital, the second and third strains being prevalent, and we are still in a little bit of an economic upheaval, we're going to have to print again in order and people are fighting now one in more than six hundred, we're going to have to print again. I think the FED misstep and didn't print early enough. But the market is the hedge because otherwise inflation is going to eat a lot of the gains and savings

that you guys have put away. And this is one of the biggest ones. I need you to eliminate all personal debt. It all costs, especially credit cards, especially if your rated is like twenty four five percent. It's unbelievable because you're technically if you have a credit card that is giving you that's twenty four percent interest on it. Any games that you get in the market, if you invest in long term, it's a cancer to your portfolio and your freedom. So this year we're going to talk

a lot more about the personal finance side. But it's hard to get to wealth if you have all these lumen debts over you. So I know student loan is tough, the personal credit card, car mortgage. Let's try and keep those two as minimal as possible. And this is a key lesson I wish I knew, and I missed out on the last great recession, and that's why I went all in post two thousand and nine to learn this. But you never want to waste a good recession that

is lifted through quantitative easy. I want to be very clear. If we go into recession at twenty twenty seven and the fans that I am not going to print money to offset these losses, I won't invest a damn dime in the market. I don't think that I'm so genius that I was the reason that the market went up because I called a few spots and you know, bought a crystal ball off eBay. The great level was quantitative easy that helped us a ton, So be mindful of that.

And this is key when doing your analysis of a company from one of the greatest investors that there is in the market today. Can this company help one billion people over thirty years? I want you to divide that number hypothetically so you get an average, and that will tell you how many people that company would then expect to help. And then you can play with some price targets and see how much money that company could make.

But in your evaluation of a company, so tes on one of them, Yes, Apple, Yes, Nvidia, AMD, especially if the game of market grows. Yes, can this company that I'm about to invest in help one billion people over thirty years? That has to be a fundamental analysis question that you ask when doing your assessment of any company. And on a trading side, this is really key, especially for all my traders. You have to assume that you're wrong and every damn trade that you trade, that you

take until profit is secure. So whether you do that with the trailing stop or let's say after you're up ten percent, you manually lock in three percent until you are in profit. Because even with slippage things going to happen, you can have a flash crash. Until you are in profit, you are not safe. Death is knocking on your doorstep because anytime we say I know this one is going to wear, those are the ones that are going to

fall apart. Everyone went crazy about Kodak last year and thought it was going to do great hurts the same and then people end up getting crushed on the backside of those trades and hyper reduction of positions it's key. I'll talk to some of you and some of you have fifty five positions. I'm like, you made your all media find you might as well compete against Kathy. At that point, you need to reduce some of the positions that you have and laser focus on a few winning companies.

These are the things that I wished that I knew at the age of twenty one to help me become a better investor, Because until you have a formula that works for you, there's going to be a sense of intimidation, and you need a process to help offset that. And even with the process, emotions kick in and we may deviate. And this is why this one is key homework for

the week. I hope that we've earned a spot into your top five, but this year I only want you to focus on listening to five podcasts on investing.