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Me Let me ask you to let me ask both of you guys this so we can just get some education for people because people might not be familiar. So
all right, so we talked about earnings. Can we break this down a little bit because people might hear about earnings and earnings were good, that owning the earnings with disappointing and then if the earnings don't are disappointing, in the stock drops, but talk about like what does that actually mean when they release when they released their quarterly quarterly numbers.
Yeah.
So basically what I just ran down is the revenue generators for a company. So Apple, we talked about the iPhone, we talked about the services, right, that's another revenue generator. The math book, the iPad. I didn't even do wearables, you know, the wearable numbers. I didn't even put those in there, but I could have. So everything that is a revenue generator goes into what the company earns. Wall
Street will say based on its performance. They'll say, all right, well we estimate that they should make this much per this quarter least three months. It's an estimate, right, at best, it's an estimate. Now if they hit the estimate, great, and sometimes we see the stock go up.
If you have firms like a Morgan and Morgan Stanley right that put out reports.
Yeah, they'll put out they'll pull out where they will go yeah, right, they'll upgrade it depends will say overweight or underperform. And based on those things people will say, all right, it's a good time invest, So it's not a good time invest. Also, what Apple didn't do again, we spoke about this in a few episodes ago. They didn't offer guidance. And so when we talked about guidance is the future outlook, what does the next quarter, the
next two or three quarters look like? And so they haven't offered any guidance during the entire pandemic.
So this isn't anything new. So Stop did pull back a little bit.
What is guidance?
I just said the future outlook of the.
Future outlook of what they expect to do.
So for my RAP fans, the analysts are like academics when he's guessing, like what the first week numbers are going to be, and the estenates are like first week sales before the quarter. Now, I truly think they should do earnings on a one year basis. It's a huge mistake when companies run on a quarter to quarter projection, and it's the rat races they're chasing. But they missed the number. But the numbers and growth of the company were great with a supply chip shortage exactly. So I
wouldn't sell base off of that. And when you guys are looking at what to invest in, you always want to do the.
Verses of the stock.
So if you did Apple versus for GM, whoever you would pick, you have to say, are they better across the board?
The answers usually know if it's not, then you have to pass it up.
But yeah, with the earnings, it's a projection of what they are going to do, and a lot of times if they miss, the stock will drop and then it's a goodbye at that point. And I even seen stocks that have hit the numbers and tanked because of it. So that's why I never lean on earnings and I never factored into my investing equation because it's not a game for us to play bas off of that and for those of you to trade off of it. If
you get the direction wrong, you're gonna get killed. So that's why I never factored into my investment.
We just we just saw a Snap drop like twenty percent after his earnings, like they missed and then dropped twenty percent. But we've seen Apple have one hundred billion dollar quarter and pull back after that. Right, the revenues are running so high, and so that I mean again, if you base your strep get investment strategy off that you have some real, real experience.
In doing it, you shouldn't do it.
I'm gonna just say what he wants to say to your price to Apple two thirty eight oh two. That's the target I have for getting to So you guys conrect that down to thirty eight oh two. It's where I expect Apple to get. And Snap did take a hell of a tumble. It will recover, but they have a lot of competition. I have an interesting theory about Snap, but I want to go into it. But if Apple goes to one twenty nine seventy six, that's why you guys should love to pick some shares up.
Yeah you heard it.
Let me cannot I'm gonna do one more company that missed because it was like big news that obviously, so Apple misses. Microsoft takes advantage of that they become the wealthiest company in the world. But Amazon missed, and everybody knows I've been huge about Amazon. They a healthy investment in Amazon, and so they missed their quarter. Obviously, supply chain issues had a.
Lot to do with that. But same thing with Apple.
We know what quarter they're going into right the holiday season is upon us now. Today on CNBC, the president, the CEO of the National Retail Federation put out a statement and he said that this holiday season is on pace. Right, they're expecting it to be the greatest shopping season ever of all time. Right, they're expecting an increase of growth of over eight to ten percent from twenty twenty when
everybody was pretty much home. And so if we think about e commerce, who's the number one in that space? That good company, right, But also there was there was another piece of news that came out about Amazon and maybe people overlooked it, but they have entered the the ev market, right. And we spoke about Rivion a few maybe last year, but it's it's the electric truck, well played. They owned twenty so the numbers finally came out that they owned twenty percent of the company. So they owned
twenty percent of Rivion. I think the investment was like one point three billion, right, based on Vivian's evaluation, because it's IPO.
In this month. I don't we not have the exact day. I know in the next couple of weeks it's going to IPO.
But based on evaluation, that investment is now worth three point eight billion, right, So the growth of Rivion will also mean the success of Amazon as well. They've already ordered one hundred thousand vehicles for their delivery service. And there's another company that that's been invested in as well. You may have heard of by Ford for those five percent of Rivian as well. So the base has been
laid for this company to be successful. Amazon's already on twenty percent plus they've already had one hundred thousand vehicles. How long did it take a testa to get to one hundred thousand vehicles ordered? Thinking about that, right, and so you started looking at the success of this ev market.
They've already built in a win.
So so what are you saying, you're bullish on Amazon.
I'm staying bullish on Amazon.
Yes, you have to.
You got to speak the language that people just want said.
You just want to know in my body or not, that's all you want to know.
I just want to give you the information you make the right I speak for the mass man.
They just want to want that mic away.
Yeah, so Amazon is an amazing company holder for the next ten years. I know you guys are going to ask about Rivian, but it's one of the things you have to understand when big companies like these and they own a considerable amount of a twenty percent, that is a solid strategy in business owners. When I'm telling you to diversify, because we're not talking about it enough, but we've entered an age when we're watching the job market die right in front of our face. And part of the reason
why Crypto and ev is going up. They're not saying it. These are going to replace most job markets. And when they usher in universal basic income, they're going to say, well, we gave your gi you guys an opportunity to invest in Crypto and Amazon and Tesla when they were super cheap. So when I'm saying you have to invest in these because in fifteen years, they may be no job market the way we see it today. If you don't believe that's true, go talk to your aunt's friends, brothers that
live through two thousand and five. And when two thousand and seven came, the job market dramatically change. I remember when we were graduating from school, it was like if you graduated, you would guarantee the job. Now I know people that have masters that can't get a job to page eighty thousand a year please be mindful. We are witnessing a changing of the guard in.
Real time UBI Universal Basic income. You think that that's something that you just kind of breezed over very quickly. You believe that that could actually happen at some point in time.
If the job market continues to be eroded. Absolutely ernest.
What's up?
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Be protected sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security. And they got them in the matrix.
That's our connection.
I don't know. We're still good.
I dunlap has froze. They have them in the matrix.
Okay, Well, while we wait for Ian to come back online, let's talk about XLI as we talk Yeah, XL Y so xly.
Since we're talking about oh there you go.
You good?
Yeah, I'm good, I'm good, all right?
So all right, yeah, so you said if the job market continues to suffer in some level of universal income.
Would have to.
It's going to be needed to keep the people from revoting. You have to, you have to.
I don't think people go look at historically. Go look in nineteen twenty nine and nineteen thirty three, after those recessions happened. How much you got some Google it, how much the job market declined. The power of the dollar's going down. My biggest fear, and I've said it before. The talic came through Peter Thiel's fellowship. He made e theory. You guys, I've already told you my theory on bitcoin.
If we get taken off of the petro dollar and the Saudis no longer have to buy oil, that is the last lynch pin that we need for America to have no advantage. Inflation will go through the roof. There's a reason why you're seeing Square Tesla all these companies look to hedge with crypto in case the warl falls apart. Please write this down. The ultimate investment strategy is to be able to make money no matter what happens in the world, to whether we go to World War three or hyperinflation.
Or we lose our dominant spot.
You still have to be able to produce make money because, like Rashad said before, we have expenses every single day. So when you guys are like battling over which assets to own, should I do options?
Long term?
The answer is to do all and then invest in the top ones and then you'll be safe. But in order to keep the people from having an absolute riot in maybe fifteen twenty years, they may have to do universe basic.
Income for sure.
Interesting, there is interesting. Well, mind to that one thing I wanted to talk about. You said that it's going to be the biggest retail season ever. So xl Y Consumer Discretionary ETF I can see some positive results.
Yeah, we're seeing it run right now.
We saw it run obviously because and we said shout out to t Tad gave me the exact number was sixteen nine allocation the Tesla, But the number one allocation in XOI ETF is is Amazon at twenty two percent.
Yeah, and so again, if I'm bullish on.
Amazon the company itself, of course I'm gonna be bullish on the ETF that has a large allocation of it, plus it has Tesla in it. Those two companies alone outside of anything else that's in there. That's almost forty percent, almost forty percent of the entire ETF.
I mean, if you're buying stuff online, and for everyone watching, it's a good question to ask. If you're buying stuff online and you don't use Amazon.
What's the better alternative? Shopifies and stock Club? It's not better? What do you use?
The Walmart dot Com? Ups is at great? Etsy is okay? Wish disaster. If you want the young jock Halloween mask, you could have one on Wish. I always think like, who is the best at what they do? This is why I hank my hat on being the best at investing. They're showing you in real time media who's best. You have to hang your hat on those that are at best in the world at what they do. And that's
an easy formula. Even if you go back to the nineteen eighties, if you're looking at steel oil, nineteen sixties was Ford, That formula works for every single era.
Like who is the best at crypto?
If you're looking at in terms of holding value or store value, it's Bitcoin. If it's ability to create projects, you can argue ethereum, please write that down.
The number one in this space is always the best one to invest in.
And that's that's one of the reason why I really love ets is because it's like, like, so take xly, twenty two percent is in Amazon, fifteen percent is in Tesla, So let's just talk about that right quick. A lot of people don't like Tesla because they feel like it's too volatile and it's very risky, and it's at an all time high and it's you know, it's kind of over inflated. Some people might think, so this is why, you know, you can invest in the ETF and you
actually get Tesla exposure without actually investing. Then Amazon is another one where people think like, well, as you know up there and price, and I might not have enough money to buy one share and it's not gonna make a difference because I don't have enough money. So now you know, the ETF once again gives you exposure almost a quarter of your portfolio to Amazon without actually, you know,
putting three thousand dollars on Amazon stock. But then also in in that ETF has Home Depot, McDonald's, low Start, Starbucks target Target, so you know, it's a lot of it's a lot of good companies in there, and yeah, people consuming discression. People start to spend money. All of those companies are going to get patronized. McDonald's say what you want about them, and.
A business of all time on a real estate sign.
Easy easily.
They're not going out of business no matter what.
Depots not going anywhere, y'ah.
Nike Lows. People don't don't think about Lows enough. We talk about realist. Shout out to Matt. We talk about real estate all the time. Lows is like the cornerstone for all of these real estate guys, all and all that they have.
They's been thousands of dollars in Lows.
Man.
I tell my dad all the time, you need nothing else but home depot, Lows, Apple, Microsoft, because like people in construction, you guys prop up and this is what I love to do. I was in Galleria last week. I went to Apple to buy some wire headphones because I lost my AirPods. Right, I'm like, how many cells you guys just eleven o'clock? He was like, they did
twenty nine hundred cells by eleven am. When you guys are in there buying drywall and sheep rock, you guys can see the volume in there, So you guys have accounts. You know, infrastructure is never going to go away, and major cities people are still going to build. Just invest in in quality across the board, and even better with the volatility thing con ed. Volatility is higher for my people back at home, nipscolle, Prices for heating is higher. Like the rate of return that you're gonna get, it's
going to be offset by the volatility. So the more return that you want, So if you want something that grows one hundred and fifty percent in a year, it may be a chance that you get a twenty five percent draw down. But a quality company that it's best in its class is not going to draw down one hundred percent. You're not going to lose. Even if you bout the absolute top, it's not going to go from
top to bottom and you get wiped out. You have to stop worrying about volatility and quality companies and realize.
Those are the places in which you should be buying the most.
So like when Tesla was in the six hundred and twenty range and I told you guys, it was gonna come down, it's to pass every estimate, and then shot up now said eleven fifty four. But look you would have doubled your money pretty much from June had you just listening.
My graduates from my school being forced back drop bag drop, Mike drop back drop drop.
An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States
Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will never return. But if you register using our CBP home app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
Do what's leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws, border and families will be protected.
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