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Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security. Stock market. The futures market ended relatively flat on the S and P How much longer before the market begins to go back up. This is why everybody wants to know how much how much more pay do people have to suffer?
I think we have about six more weeks so the lumber prices are finally settling. Inflation is going to be bad for a little bit longer, but it's not going to be as bad as everyone predicted it will be. You can market challenge. You have about six more weeks of pain to go through. I think it's going to be very clear very soon that we're going to have a change in terms of political structure that will bring some consistency in the market because people hate to invest
whether there's uncertainty. So when you have a clear plan, clear landscape of what's going to happen, it's a lot easier to invest. There are a couple of markets that you can invest in and still do incredibly will in. But overall, the next six weeks will be tough, and then after that we'll start to smooth out and then be okay. So I know some people like, hey, should I take all of my money out? No, you still
want to invest for the long term. But for those of you that are trading as well, ease up a little bit on the downside because we aren't going to have these incredible moves to the downside as much, and then once you see has fun, start to pouring a little bit more money. We'll be fine. But give us six more weeks, eight tops, and then we'll start to balance out. I believe by the end of the year we should only be up maybe six to maybe nine percent on a year in terms of the S and
P five hundred, so we'll be flat. But for traders is great because the volatility is absolutely has been fantastic, like this first quarter or so. So yeah, give us six weeks and we'll be all right.
Jan Hatzeus, she's a Goldman Sachs chief economist. You predicted that there's a fifteen percent chance of recession within the next twelve months, thirty five percent chance over the next two years, and so that's good news.
The chief.
He's a Goldman sax chief economists to be at a predition scale. So I think last week a couple of firms came out and said that we're headed towards the recession, but they NAVI gave a percentage with it. And so based on this calculations, based on obviously all of the factors that would lead to recession, they said there's a fifteen percent chance in the next twelve months and for the next two years, thirty five percent chance of a recession.
So if Biden gets knocked out office and we get a Republican president with Jack lewell go back to the nineteen fifties and do every election since and see the probability of being in a recession under a Republican leader versus Democratic leader. Now, some Republicans argue Democrats caused the mess and we get to blame. That will be the case this time. But during a Republican presidency, we tend
to have more recessions. So and those are like I know people look at the R words like a bad word, those are times when you can start to build generational wealth. So me personally, and when happened, I was like, our vow to never miss out on these opportunities ever again. And that's when I began to like really really hone
in and master my craft around this market. When we hit the recession, everyone listening, I'm begging you to do the same, Like learn this market like the back of your hand, and you won't be able to make some incredible money. And the crazy part I didn't know how to trade then, which is a gift in the curse. But if you can invest the long term and trade in a recession. You know, for those of you who were at Apollo, you saw Troy put put up the billboard.
Those are some big numbers you can hit for sure in a recession. So enjoy it. Please enjoy it.
Yeah, new billboards do come.
What I'm realizing too, is that a lot of these, a lot of these projections are actually guesses because if you look at the last two recessions, nobody predicted that. Nobody predicted it. You predicted coronavirus.
I predicted a recession in twenty twenty, for sure. In twenty eighteen, I did.
Well, why did you predict it? Because the recession was for a global pandemic. There was a mathematical calculation.
Like I know people make jokes about crystal ball, but like when I went and did the mathematical calculations on when we were hit for those for the women who were trading with me in twenty eighteen, like I said, Hey, but twenty twenty and chatter if you were there, like I said, it was gonna.
Hit for sure. What what mathematical equation.
Are you used?
I can't get that your theory huh.
I said, we could have based it on your theory, right, we said every every eight years or twelve years. Right, we've been on an up trend, right, so at some point it's gonna be a pullback and somebody's gonna be a catastrophic.
Based on just your Yeah.
I mean, that's just that's just theoretical, right, Yeah, that's just that's just.
Like you look at leadership though, that's yeah, that just happens over the court of time, That's what I'm saying. But I'm saying, nobody predicted.
Earners.
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Thrownavirus?
No that well one person I forgot her name, Oh my god. If you go to Tim Paris's podcast, she actually did predict it in twenty eighteen.
Well it was in a book.
What it is?
Yeah, yeah, and it's like what we'll call it to what was it. Bill Gates, he gave a ted.
Talk and that was that was scary.
He gave a ted talk that.
It's easy to predict something that.
Allegen allegedly allegedly.
All right, China, China, do any China stocks excite you?
I actually like Ali Baba. I mean I may need it to.
I'm happy you said that.
Maybe if it drops another twenty bucks and listen, Mike clipped us up, nikkiy clipped us up for a five year old. So if you hold any lesson, it's not going to work well. I like Ali Baba. I want to like. Tencent is not there yet. There are a couple of the stocks there that have potential, but Ali Baba is the only one right now that I'm excited about. And if it drops like twenty dollars, a lord on what it is right now?
I'm with you on Ali Baba. I want to know your thoughts though, Charlie, Charlie Munger. Obviously last week, if anybody wasn't familiar with Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, he sold half his state in Ali Baba over three hundred
thousand years. Did they have any impact on your feelings on Ali Babo as like, all right, Charlie, don't We don't have to agree with I mean, one of the greatest investors, but we don't always have to go with what they what they're doing, right, I will say, follow what the wealthy people are doing.
Absolutely, there's certain things he may know geopolitically. And if we hit a recession, man Ali Babica fall to like an all time record low for a company with that kind of market cap, I wouldn't buy it right now. It's not a good price. But if it did fall twenty bucks lower, thirty bucks lower, I'd be happy. This definitely has to be a five year hold because geopolitically we cannot change a lot of the things that are
happening there. But that's the one stock in China that I'm like, if it falls to a certain price, I mean, related to grab it, And I'll say this, I wouldn't put it in a primary account. Number two. I would probably create a separate account so for my investors and traders, Like if you have a long term account, a swing account, let's say you have like a speculation account that you don't look at every day, put it in that account. So because if you draw down twenty percent. You don't
want it to bleed your main portfolio. But if you just talk it away for maybe two or three years, you may look up one day and you may be up sixty eighty percent and be happy with that with the game. But I wouldn't put it like my primary for it all.
Yeah, I like Ali Baba for a couple of reasons. When I start looking at it's comparison to that in Amazon.
Obviously we know what AWS is for Amazon, but Ali Baba, you know, they control large percentage of the cloud service in China as well, and so when they're looking at percentages wise of what you know the cloud experision is going to look like in mainland China, they're talking about sixty percent growth by twenty twenty seven, and so if they own I think right now they control thirty percent of the cloud service on the mainland China, and so if they control that large of a percentage and there's
potential growth there, it makes sense. I like it in that sense. They have almost one point three billion users on their platform, which which is you know, that's that's that's a large that's a large percentage of the world. Really, So those two reasons like it. I'll side of it being China, and obviously I've learned my lesson with you know, dealing with some Chinese stocks.
I like those two factors, yah, because the geopolitical risk is the only thing that terrifies me. So for my investors and traders, like, the geopolitical stuff is worse than like a market maker deciding to like flood the market on the short side, or even like hedge funds deciding to shorten. So you're probably gonna have to hold it through this most recent recession, and then if we get another one in twenty four into twenty four early twenty five,
you don't have to hold through. But if you hold it into twenty seven twenty eight, you can have a nice home run. So, but investing as considerable risks. This is not a crystal ball guarantee. I'm just telling you you're gonna have to hold it for at least five ideally ten. But yeah, if you're looking for a dark horse, Ali Baba is the one. I like.
My graduates from my school being forced bad drop drop, Mike, drop drop. Did you.
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