If you think you had a tough week, check out what happened in the UK. Nothing like an Inflation print that constantly and stubbornly surprises to the upside leading their central bank to declare a 50 bps emergency rate hike. Additionally, the Russian paramilitary organization, The Wagner Group has led a pretty solid resistance against their motherland. Although ironic, it does create some uncertainty within commodities and trading blocks. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMI...
Jun 29, 2023•53 min
So we're taking a trip across the Pacific this week and drinking Japanese whiskey to toast Antony Blinken's visit to China. With that, the presence of the U.S. Secretary of State to the People's Republic doesn't solve a lot of their issues; but there could be some optimism (hopefully) to come of this. Also, hope you all had a happy Fed day last Wednesday along with a very happy CPI day on Wednesday eve. The Fed deciding to pause hopefully garnered some optimism for your portfolio, although it ca...
Jun 22, 2023•52 min
From a case study standpoint, we're fairly certain that economists are going to look back on this time frame 5 years from now and call 2022-2023 a long and shallow recession. Even if you turn on any financial news outlet now, you'll hear 'experts' saying that a 'recession' is really just hitting different parts of the economy at different times. Currently, manufacturing seems to be the one going through the ringer...and commercial real estate is seemingly next on the chopping block. At least the...
Jun 15, 2023•52 min
So the Government has officially kicked the Debt Ceiling can two years down the road to 2025, which provides more significance to the Fed meeting next week. Conveniently, the next inflation print comes out the day before the rate decision is announced; so we have plenty of economic events to look forward to next week. Additionally, has anybody seen the most recent jobs/employment numbers?? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: ...
Jun 08, 2023•55 min
Well at least we can now finally put the debt ceiling thing behind us. Who would've thought that the representatives that the good people of the United States would actually choose to compromise a few budget constraints over the alternative; which is complete economic catastrophe. Nonetheless, there are certain contingencies in the bill that might affect the economy moving forward and essentially could put us back in the same exact situation a few years down the road. But all this back & for...
Jun 02, 2023•56 min
First off, I must apologize for all the tech issues in the last couple weeks. Seriously, I've missed you guys. But coming back in inglorious fashion, we have to split a bottle of scotch over the potential likelihood of a US Government default. Though there's still a very low chance that a default does happen, there's still a first time for everything. Odds are, they strike a deal at the 11th hour in true form. Lets talk about what happens if they do...then speculate on what happens if they don't...
May 25, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Sorry for the short & solo presentation...some of us were still recovering from a hangover. But we wanted to give a quick update post CPI and what the market outlook vibes are now that we have a seemingly positive real interest rate. More to come in the next week! Cheers, Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y’all!...
May 12, 2023•30 min
It should be noted, that this is not an attempt to call Speaker McCarthy a zombie. However, we had to come up with somewhat of a title to combine the subject of a what a zombie company is along with the fact that the largest zombie company in the world might in fact be the U.S. government. Even then, the arbitrary debt ceiling has even stirred some worry that a U.S. government default might actually happen. And if you remember, the banking crisis is seemingly starting to show some real contagion...
Apr 27, 2023•52 min
Seriously, when is it ever not pending...but it seems at though this current pending phase is starting to wear out it's welcome. CPI data came in promising, but retail sales slumping maybe suggests that we might have some weakness ahead. But all this data also might suggest that the Fed's policy might be working and that a soft landing might be within the cards. Also, happy Tax Day. I hope you filed on time or at least got an extension approved. Pretty hectic time of year I know... Find us on Tw...
Apr 20, 2023•59 min
After a refreshing holiday weekend, the BLS is now releasing a ton of important economic data that the Fed will no doubt overreact to. What economic data might you ask? Well for one, jobs data came out on Good Friday, CPI came out earlier today, and retail sales will be released on Friday. In the last couple years, the Fed has been known to try and solve every little forecasted problem without considering the repercussion of creating other ones. Take the supply chain issues, droughts, fixed inco...
Apr 13, 2023•53 min
So...OPEC+ in their infinite wisdom (actually lack thereof) recently made the 'brilliant' cartel decision to cut oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day. All the while, Saudi Arabia smoothed over tensions they had with Iran, courtesy of China, and speaking of China, they agreed to let Saudi Aramco buy into two of their largest oil refineries. Now, the notion of buying stake in China certainly does seem foolish, but this one comes with a rather unique twist. What might it be? Listen & f...
Apr 06, 2023•55 min
I guess the fruits of the Federal Reserve's labor is really coming to fruition. Because of this, they had to succumb to a 25 basis point rate hike to at least keep up the appearance of not completely falling on their sword. Additionally, SVB got bought by First Citizens on a sweetheart deal from the FDIC and the lack of interest in the SVB's assets. And cheers to Gamestop for posting a profitable quarter... Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspread...
Mar 30, 2023•47 min
I guess the main takeaway from this whole bank fallout out is that the Fed ended up only raising by 25 bps rather than the projected 50 bps by the bond market earlier this month. That and UBS and Credit Suisse are now the same company; which really was a long time coming one way or another. However, the overhanging paradox remains: on one hand, banks that make poor decisions deserve to fail; on the other hand, loss of faith in the overall banking system would be catastrophic for the overall econ...
Mar 23, 2023•56 min
I guess the cat got out of the bag and became the elephant in the room. As far as how that happened, Silicon Valley Bank had a balance sheet so ugly that the Motion Pictures Association would have to create a might need to create a new rating class for it. Like seriously, how can you have a portfolio duration that is so exposed to the interest rate hikes of the last two years. Now the question is how much contagion is there? Let's hope this doom loop doesn't get out of hand. Find us on Twitter, ...
Mar 16, 2023•54 min
Welcome back everyone, hope you had a chance to recover from your accumulative hangover; and what a week to come back to. So far, we've had a Fed presser, a Beige Book release, and a JOLTS report. As expected, we received astoundingly hawkish tone from JPow and the markets reacted accordingly. Additionally, the Chinese doom loop seems look more and more vicious; which can lead to some severe economic implications...more to come. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch:...
Mar 09, 2023•49 min
In lieu of our 3-year anniversary episode, we decided to form some sort of market outlook for this year. Since we've started, inflation has gotten out of control, markets have been unbelievably volatile, and the Fed is now functioning more like a popularity contest rather than a central bank. However, the constant throughout this time has been the amazing taste of whiskey and the undeniable fulfillment we get when we share a dram with you all. Here's to three more. Cheers,
Feb 24, 2023•48 min
Jobs report, check. Inflation report, check. Retail sales, check. Three key pieces of economic data for the month of January came out over the past week and all of those signs point to a strong economy; meaning inflation has not cooled at all. Now, hindsight 20/20, the 25 bps hike last meeting now seems weak and cowardly. The contrarian view, however, is that government interest expense is pushing $1 trillion while personal credit card debt is also nearing that benchmark. Maybe it makes sense, i...
Feb 17, 2023•52 min
The Jobs report on Friday proved that the Fed has a lot more room to tighten monetary policy even more. The only thing we now need to see is the CPI report that conveniently comes out on Valentines Day. Additionally, Lebanon felt the appropriate move for their country is to devalue their currency by 90%. Why would they do that? Well, pour yourself a dram and find out. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomi...
Feb 09, 2023•52 min
Well, 450 basis points later and the Fed has not been able to control inflation...especially in chicken/egg prices (although it would be cool if the Fed had a tool in their arsenal to increase chicken & egg supply). But in all seriousness, in the biggest earnings week of the first quarter, the markets also decided to get optimistic about a potential Fed pivot taking place before the end of the year. In other words, being "data-dependent" really means they have the ability to be totally flaky...
Feb 03, 2023•43 min
As the entire world (including Saudi Arabia) gets to know China a little better, the prospects of the petroyuan taking over seems less and less likely. And that's even with all the trade partnerships in the works for China. Seriously, their municipalities are running low on cash, their real estate market is in shambles, and their leadership is seemingly oblivious to their economic deterioration. However, to throw another turd in the punchbowl, talks of the petrogold are starting to materialize. ...
Jan 26, 2023•1 hr 2 min
Inflation print came in a lot cooler last week, which leaves some odd balls to believe the Fed's chance of navigating a soft landing has actually increased. However, if you actually examine the CPI basket of goods and see the drivers of inflation, the news really isn't that good. Better than last month, I'll admit; but still not good. Additionally, international trade agreements are starting to gain momentum as BRICS and the NDB are starting to attract suitors. Now the 'developed' world has some...
Jan 20, 2023•50 min
Now that we got all the new year shenanigans out of the way, we're right around the corner from the first wave of economic data coming out (although a ton of data has already been released); which means the powers that be will have a ton of soul searching to do post-reckoning. But all that really means is that they're just gonna continue to be 'data-dependent,' whatever the hell that means. Also, the fixed income market has forced pensions to beg their public relations departments to fend off ma...
Jan 12, 2023•49 min
Despite pretty much every asset class experiencing some major carnage last year...it could be worse. Although most major investments were down, it did present an opportune time to do some tax-loss harvesting; which, the subject alone is pretty touchy. Additionally, we finally decided to follow up the potential tinfoil hat story about the potential currency war between China and the U.S. So it's about time we poured one out for the Petrodollar. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNK...
Jan 06, 2023•52 min
We all got by 2022 inflation adjusted...congrats y'all & cheers to you. In our last presentation of the year, we actually tried to not talk about the Federal Reserve since they were pretty much the only topic of conversation all year. Instead, we talked about household debt levels, real estate, and of course some billionaire gossip. See you in 2023, in the meantime, feel free to hit us up... @DRUNKENOMICAL on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: pa...
Dec 22, 2022•51 min
With all due respect, the Fed has no balls. Even after admitting the strong labor markets and the pain inflation is causing on the American economy, they still only chose to raise the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points. In their desperation to navigate a soft-landing, inflation may continue to persist well into the new year. Also, European Central Bank is facing even larger problems. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patron....
Dec 16, 2022•36 min
As promised..here is our presentation (episode) about complex options trading strategies. When we say complex strategies, we mean option trading strategies involving more than one option contract. These strategies include credit/debit spreads, iron condors, protective puts/covered calls, collars, calendars/diagonals, straddles/strangles, and even butterflys. We will meet again this week for another drink as toast to CPI results and Fed decision. In the meantime, feel free to send any questions a...
Dec 14, 2022•46 min
Due to all the requests from our econholics & drinkonimists in our discord, we've finally made an episode on option trading. In this presentation, we predominantly cover single leg option strategies like long/short single calls or puts, why they exist, and even take a dive into option greeks. Next week, we're gonna take a deeper dive into complex (multi-leg) option strategies, such as, debit/credit spreads, diagonals/calendars, straddles/strangles, and even condors/butterflys. It is a confus...
Dec 08, 2022•1 hr 5 min
Yes, we made a ton of Metallica references in this presentation in honor of the best news of the year: Metallica is coming out with a new album and going on another world tour. Additionally, nearly offsetting this fantastic news is the possibility of a railroad strike, protest outbreaks in China, and language of a premature Fed pivot. Also, the credit bubble seems to only be expanding as savings rates are plummeting while credit card debt is soaring. Hopefully it all ends well like the Master of...
Dec 01, 2022•38 min
Happy Thanksgiving folks! Quick episode here on the Holiday week about recent signals from the Federal Reserve. Apparently they're flirting with the idea of pivoting and it's causing all kinds of upheavals. I know there's a lot to be thankful for, but don't you also wish we can go back to the days when the markets looked at something other than just the Fed? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patron.com/drunkenomics Stay Dru...
Nov 24, 2022•27 min
Sorry if this affected you in anyway, but we have stumbled across our next 5-letter f-word once again. This time, it's Sam Bankman-Fried. Additionally, inflation numbers came out and shocked the markets in a good way...twice. So much so, that certain Fed governors are really flirting with the idea of pivoting. Why? Well, beats me, but if you really wanna know how we feel, just pour yourself a stiff one in listen. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.my...
Nov 17, 2022•49 min
