Drive Time with Travis Wingfield begins.
Now let me check your pulse if you're not. What is up? Dolphins?
And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast, part of the Miami Dolphins podcast network covering your team, your Miami Dolphins.
How's it going to everybody?
I am your host, Travis Wingfield And on today's show, it's a preview day.
Feels good to get back to the actual football. The bye week is bye bye.
Now it's eight games to the finish line and then three or four more. We'll see how it goes, but it starts Sunday at home versus the Raiders. We'll look at the lineups, the matchups, the scheme, the keys to victory, and a whole lot more from the Baptist Health Studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex.
This is the Draft Time Podcast. May Daffe.
Finally a Dolphins game back in our lives and the bye week was awesome. I got a chance to spend more time with the family. I got a chance to just watch some movies and be alone for a little bit, which you fathers of multiple kids know how difficult that is to find that kind of time. But like didn't really I missed talking Dolphins football, especially like relevant, you know, prevalent things that are coming up down the pike. It was great to talk to jt. O.
Sullivan.
Uh missed out on the guest for the Potential Tuesday podcast, wound up taking that day off as far as the podcast goes.
But on top of that.
The bye week was as sweet as it could have been, right even though it was the longest week of the year in terms of how slow it went by, since for me, July probably feeled that way for anybody else, I'm sure it did. But even though it took forever, the Dolphins will now play every single Sunday except for a Monday game and a Friday game, I suppose, for the next two months plus, so we have that in
our lives. Plus, the bye week was absolutely fantastic. I think I last left you guys saying I hope the Bills can lose tonight, and now that they have lost that game, you know, we'll talk about that scenario here once again, because I talked about in the podcast last week that if you know, Miami takes care of business over the next five games, Buffalo has to find their way to a five hundred record against really good slate of competition just to prevent Miami from clinching the division
before the Christmas Eve game against Dallas. We'll get back into that. Let's go ahead and start here. Excuse me, with the raiders in town and the locals know, the rain and lower temperatures this week have been welcome. In fact, as I record this, it is a downpour on Wednesday.
I doubt practice goes outside today. But the good news for those coming into town looking for a nice little late fall get away from your cold weather is the sunshine comes back for Sundayenen, the rain ceases on Thursday, and then we head right into an absolutely beautiful weekend and week of South Florida weather. We wait all year for this, starting on Friday through next Thursday, Thanksgiving, when
the team leaves for New York. It's sunny every day, and the high never eclipses eighty three, and most days it does not eclipse eighty and the lows are pretty much sixty three, sixty four, sixty five across the board every single day.
This is the payoff for those six.
Months we have of boiling heat down here. Let's go ahead and get to know these raiders who come from a very warm climate themselves.
Turnover and tumultuous.
Times have been the theme for the Raiders since they moved to Vegas, and it's kind of a bummer. I think the league is better when the Raiders are good, and they're a team that I don't have any ill will towards, you know, in general. I think some folks that maybe grew up as fans of the league in the eighties.
Feel that way.
But you know, it's hard to hate a team that's you know, won three or four games a year for like fifteen years straight, and like, if you want to talk about all time pain rankings, that twenty sixteen season where they finally got off the mat and made something of themselves and had like I think they won twelve games that year, but their quarterback, Derek Carr, he got injured I think the penultimate game of the season, and they wind up starting Connor Cook in a playoff game
and lose to the Brock aust Weiler led Texans.
That would be like if the Bills started.
Kyle Allen in that game last January and we still lost it with Skaler Thompson playing in that game, But then they revert right back to the prior thirteen years that they had had before that, a period where they averaged just four point nine wins a year, and they had back to back eight win seasons in that mix. That really propped up what was annually two three four wins a year, so twelve and four and twenty sixteen and then six wins, four wins, seven wins, eight wins
the next four years. Then back to the playoffs with an interim coach, which is where they're at right now, trying to make that same push for the second time in three years, and they're throwing into the end zone in Cincinnati to tie that game in the wild card round to the eventual AFC champions They wind up going four and out and followed that up with a six and eleven season last year. But now they're five and five.
They've beaten the Giants and Jets. Yeah, get a little bit of context there to get Antonio Pierce's career off to a two and zero star as head coach, and you know, you can talk about the opponents all you want, but they did what they had to do to put themselves in position to maybe make a run with this saying down the stretch, but they have a big, big, big road test down here in Miami Gardens. Thirteen point dogs in this game, So that's those games usually don't
go in your favor. But let's go ahead and keep this intro rolling. How was this roster assembled for LV, Well, it's cobbled together by multiple decision makers and that's usually when you get.
A pretty rough roster. Right.
They're still in the post Gruden Mayock era in terms of holdovers from those rosters, and now they'll be in the midst of another turnover with a dismissal of Josh McDaniels just one and a half years into his run there.
It's a tough way to make.
A living when you consistently turn over your coaching staff
because everybody has different flavors, right. But a good example is they signed Jimmy Garoppolo to a three year contract with a ton of guaranteed money to reunite with his former OC in New England, McDaniels, And now he's gone, and they make the switch to Aidan O'Connell, a fourth round pick this year, and his top target is an All Pro receiver who signed to play with the previous quarterback his former college teammate at Fresno State, Derek Carr.
You see how this is all kind of getting muddled together, Jacoby Myers. I'm sure a lot of that his acquisition had to do with Josh McDaniels coming from the Patriots. I thought he was their best offseason move. And why the hell the Patriots let that guy go for that cost to bring in Juju Smith Schuster is beyond me, but we'll take it maybe their best move besides drafting Michael Mayer in the first round from Notre Dame, who I think is gonna be pretty good player. But their
offensive line has also seen a ton of turnover. That twenty sixteen team I talked about, that team was good because of an awesome offensive line, and I thought they really propped up like Derek Carr year that year. But it hasn't been the same for a couple of years. They voluntarily cut off pieces like Rodney Hudson, and all of a sudden they have this cobbled together offensive line that's not playing very well. Their best player was a Day three pick in Max Crosby out of Eastern Michigan.
And if you follow the Lockdown Dolphins podcast back in my time, He was a guy that when I was watching four college football games every single window, every single Saturday, I would watch, you know, Purdue versus Eastern Michigan because a little scratch on the game, and I was like, damn, miss Max Crosby. Guys pretty good. And he turned out to be pretty good. But he anchors a defensive line that was again built through free agency. John Jenkins, you
guys know about him. Adam Butler you know about him. Jerry Tillery, a former first round draft pick that didn't pan out for the Chargers, but then also the sixth pick in the draft, and Tyree Wilson who has not played well or barely played it all this year. That's how it goes all the way to the back seven.
This is a roster where you can just see the lack of draft hits from that previous regime because almost every major contributor is a recent free agent signing, and you've already dismissed the half of the pieces in terms of where the scheme was supposed to match up with those players coming in, or for instance, a guy that was a free agent acquisition that's playing one of their playing one of the best on the team right now is linebacker Robert Splaine, who I know all you guys
know about because you watched that Jets game and loved that pick that he had on Zach Wilson to put that game to rest. In the defensive backfield, Marcus Epps, again brought in from Philly, might be the next guy in terms of the best offseason acquisitions. They did a good job of remaking a defense that has struggle for years with this free agency period. But we'll see how long they can hold up at the course of the season because it's not deep in a lot of areas.
And his counterpart, Trayvon Merrig was a guy they did draft in the second round under Mike Mayock, an absolute stud from TCU. Marcus Peters another guy they signed in free agency this summer. I imagine you'll see rookie Jacory and Bennett along with Nate Hobbs riding out the secondary, and those are two of the guys that play a lot or Bennett will in the absence of a meek Robertson, who went into the fencing posture on Sunday night against the Jets, the same posture that Tua took when he
was injured against the Bengals. I can't imagine he plays because that would seem to be.
Crazy to me. So if it is Jacoreyan.
Bennett and and Nate Hobbs, sorry, that would be two guys in their defensive backle they actually drafted that are back there. So and along with treyvon merreg gives them a three. But you get the idea. It's a roster that is gonna see a ton more change over next year, in a couple of years in the future, because you'll get a new head coach.
And this is a what's the word I'm looking for? A merry go round? A you know, musical chairs that you just don't want to be on.
Man tough to make a living that way. How about some storylines for this game? This feels like we don't talk about this as much as we used to. Maybe it's because air travel has gotten better, and you know, sports science has gotten better. But the cross country eleven am body clock off of a short week used to be ten am. But they're in the Mountain time zone now,
I believe, I think. But you're probably saying to yourself, trave a short week, not exactly, but you know Sunday night is seven hours later than a one pm kickoff, and that just kind of pushes things back a few hours. So you get the game finished, let's say local time in Vegas by ten pm. You're not gonna unwind after playing an NFL football game for a few hours. So maybe you go out and you get some dinner, maybe you go back home and ice up and watch you know, Scott van Pelton.
You don't get to bed until one or two o'clock.
In the morning, and so your Monday morning alarm clock comes a little bit earlier than you want. Corrections on Monday, can you kind of get pushed back a little bit. But the real data point here is just the one pm kick for a West Coast operation or again formerly West Coast, now I guess Southwest.
But how have the Raiders fared in such games this year?
They played one East Coast game in the one o'clock window, a thirty eight to ten drubbing up in Buffalo. Last year Eastern time zone at one pm, they were zero to three, oh to four in total because they played a Saturday night game against Pittsburgh. But now I'm curious to go back further, because this seems to be a
thing right. They beat Pittsburgh in Week two in Pittsburgh back in twenty twenty one, that was the last time they won a one o'clock kickoff on the East Coast, but since then they have lost five straight one.
Pm kicks in the Eastern time zone. And also, the heat used to be a thing.
And though Vegas is a dry heat, this isn't the old Bay Area climate right, so acclamation will be there, but not as it is for other teams. I think another storyline here is the former Finns connections. Did you guys realize how many former Dolphins they have on their coaching staff. I bet you didn't because their interimc slash QB's coach Bo hart Agree spent some time here. I'm pretty sure that most you guys remember the name Jerry sh Plinsky. He was the first quarterbacks coach that Brian
Flores brought in. He coaches the tight ends out there. Matt Lombardi is an assistant receivers coach. He was here for a minute. Patrick Graham, I know you guys know about him. He's the DC out there. Rob Leonard coached our outside linebackers last year. He's on the defensive line out there and then Danny am Mondola is also an assistant on their staff to the roster. Brandon Bolden Germaine Iluminor spent a camp here. John Jenkins has had a lot of stops here. Adam Butler. There's ten total guys
here that used to be in the Dolphins program. Another storyline, the bye week broke in our favor. Can we capitalized? I've quite literally never experienced a weekend that good in which the Dolphins didn't play. The entire division lost. The North and South leaders lost the team I think is the biggest challenge to that. North leader also lost the Ravens and Bengals. We found out today that Shawn Watson has a shoulder season ending shoulder injury.
That's so sad for him. Man, I that sucks. That's sarcasm. So we'll see about them.
But Casey was idle or else they had lost, it would have nearly undone the loss we had the previous week, because you basically catch a game on literally everybody you're.
Contending with in the standings.
But now you've spin it forward to the Dolphins playing a football game and capitalizing. Miami's in a position to take care of business. And you know, scoreboard watching to me, it makes the game way more fun. I love having multiple games, like having the Jets and Bills in primetime was awesome, like having invested interest there, and that Bill's game, Like my heart sank when that field goal missed man then then the flag came out and I went back
the other direction. Those emotions are so much fun, and it kind of reminds you, Like I was really down to dumps after that Chief's loss, right, I just couldn't get over the fact that I still think it's going to cost us the one seed I really do, which sucks. But you know, I was really down to dumps about that.
But that Bill's game, you appreciate that those lows make you realize that those highs are around the corner as well, especially when you have a good football team like the Miami Dolphins do.
So that was a great, great week.
We'll start scoreboard watching more and more as we go along with the whole idea here is if the Dolphins just handle their business.
Over the next month, the AFC East is going to be theirs.
Dolphins. We've talked about it a million times. Raiders, Jets, Commanders, Titans, Jets, like you should go five to zero. With the way this team plays, the way this quarterback has a super high floor. It never seems to lose these games. Really pays into your benefit. All of a sudden, the Bills now face the Jets, They're at the Eagles bye week at the Chiefs home for the Cowboys, and in the scenario that Miami does take care of business and wins all five of those games, Buffalo has to go.
At least at least.
Three and one during that stretch to prevent Miami from clinching the division prior to the Dallas game. Now, assuming five straight wins, Yeah, may be dumb. I don't think it is here, but you can see why all the analytics models now have Miami's division title percentage odds over seventy five percent.
Right now, it's our division to lose.
Baby. We'll see how it plays out, but this could potentially be the first time that Buffalo and New England don't win eleven plus games one of the two since two thousand and two. In fact, the number has been twelve plus game every year except for two thousand and eight, when we won the division tie with the Patriots at eleven and five. And twenty twenty one when the Bills went eleven and six. Finally, the AFC East is not
a juggernaut outside of Miami. Finally, let's go ahead and take our first break rate there, come back on the other side and preview the Raiders defense against this Dolphins offense. That's Next Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield.
Brought to you by Auto Nation.
Recently, I started grabbing my microphone and holding it up to my face and sitting back and relaxing, and I feel like it makes the podcast better.
Do you guys notice that at all?
I don't know, just a little uh trick of the trade here inside baseball. Let's go ahead and get to
this Dolphins offense versus Raiders defense matchup here. And I you know, if you guys haven't noticed, the best way to make me sensitive on Twitter is to say that I'm biased against for the Dolphins, because yeah, I'm a fan of the team, and I do tend to see things on the positive side of things, but I also like the way I feel about this team has been a progression going back to twenty twenty because I've always thought that Chris twenty nineteen really with the acclamation or
accumulation of draft picks and just general capital because I believed in the process. I believed in the players they had. I believe the coaching staff previously had been holding back a lot of talent they had, and now you've seen that all kind of come to fruition. You've seen the current iteration of this, you know, group attack star players and round out your team with game changing talent, like a Tyreek Hill, like a Toront Armstead, like a Jalen Ramsey,
and on and on and on. So I get so sensitive when I see that on Twitter because it's not true. I just think the Dolphins are a damn good football team and that's where that comes from. And it's easy for detractors to say, like Travis is a homer, Travis gets paychecks from the team.
Those are both true.
But I'll tell you what, in twenty twenty one, when this team was one and five, go listen to those podcasts, and go listen to the Zacobe Brissette breakdowns, and tell me how I felt about the team back then. So the reason I bring this up is because I'm going to tell you I think the Dolphins are going to absolutely roll in this game, and it feels like I say that every single week.
I have picked him every game.
I flipped the Eagles pick because Connor didn't play, so I did win that pick. Technically didn't want to win, but I did. I thought they would perform better against the Chiefs. They kind of let us down on that one. I can think we all can agree on that, even though they were close to winning it late. But you're gonna get more of the same. Man. I think the Dolphins are gonna roll down the back half of the schedule.
I think there's.
Really one game that right now where we're at, I would pick us to lose.
It's the Baltimore game.
Other than that, I think Miami right now, with the way things are, I would predict thirteen and four. I told you about that in the podcast already last week. So that's just kind of a preamble into why I'm gonna tell you how Dolphins are gonna roll in this game. So Dolphins offense, so this Raiders defensive backfield's banged up.
Man.
I mentioned Trayvon Merrick. He's played every snap in Marcus Epps has played ninety eight percent of the snaps. They never go three safety, so it's those two guys and those two guys only, and then at corner they are super super thin. Marcus Peters ninety six percent of the snaps. He's he's a great player. He's a gambler. I think you know, two on and Tyreek could get him on one of those single man coverage plays that we get every single week if he takes the cheese on a you know, a.
Short move or doesn't get enough depth.
And then Jacorey and Bennett is kind of next in line because Brandon face On is on IR. He was supposed to be a perimeter starter as well a safety. Roderick Teamer maybe this is why they only run two safeties. He's also on IR, so is outside linebacker Darien Butler, but a Meek Robertson, their other starting cornerback who plays pretty much every snap in the absence of Brandon face On. Again, he left Sunday's game in the fencing posture, so I just can't imagine he returns to the lineup. It would
be irresponsible to have that happen. Jackorey and Bennett is his replacement. He was also injured in game but came back into the lineup, but he's man, I don't know. Inside Nate Hobbs plays fifty one percent of the snaps. Robertson would kick inside as well, So there's there's a lot of fluidity in the back seven of this defense. That's what I'm trying to tell you. They're gonna have
to elevate practice squad corners. I imagine Jack Jones has a chance to play because without roberts and the acquisition of Jones, he's their fifth cornerback, and they're gonna have to go into the practice squad to get special teams reps, maybe even perimeter snaps if one guy goes down. So it's and these are the games where like the Dolphins just roll right Like we've seen that that Cardinals game back in twenty twenty, they were down a bunch of
corners to a shred of those guys. Even Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Niers game that year, they were down a bunch of corners and they shredded those guys. You know the Panthers game this year, down safety's got shredded. The Giants were down, corners got shredded. It's not a good proposition to have missing corners against this Dolphins offense as.
Far as they're upfront grouping goes Balala.
Nichols is the leading defensive tackle at fifty eight percent, John Jenkins fifty five percent, Jeremy Tillery forty five percent, and then Adam Butler forty five So you can that's all basically half the snaps, right. Those guys are in a pretty consistent rotation. It keeps them fresh, it keeps them going, which is a good thing for them here playing in Miami, Max Rosby doesn't leave the field ninety eight percent of the snaps, Tyree Wilson forty one percent,
and then Malcolm Coon's thirty six percent. At linebacker, Robert Splaine never leaves the field, and then Dion Diablo is a sixty percent snap taker. He's a safety linebacker hybrid fun player to watch. Back there, they're in their base defense two percent of the time. They run a heavy box fifteen percent, which could be construed as like a four defensive back or rather a base package, but it's a lot of short yards like two corners, one safety,
everyone else up in the box. A lot of that has to do with the devine Diablo being one of their top guys back there, but their Nickel package is eighty one percent at the time, So really the closest version in terms of lack of diversity and their scheme to the bills that we'll see on the schedule just crazy splits. But I think that Diablo being unique is a big part of that, but also their willingness to run a six to two look where they have six down line and I mentioned all those guys that play
half the snaps. They're not shy about getting all of those guys on the field and then go on like Crosby and Wilson off the edge with Splain and Diablo in the in the box as well. But then they'll go from that to basically skip over their base entirely.
It's just one of the more unique deployments we'll see this year.
And with eighty five percent of their snaps calling for five or six dbs for a team that's banged up back there right now, I'm curious to see how they adjust to that and how the Dolphins can perhaps try to dictate personnel with their own groupings. On offense, Patrick Graham's the defensive coordinator, So you Ryder dies here from Lockdown know that we did dupe dives on the Patrick Graham defense, and that means, you know that slots of
odd fronts. They love that bear front where you cover up the guard center guard with you know, head up over the both those guys with a two technique, a pair of two techniques and a zero technique, and that's why you see just one true edge rusher with starter snaps. They roll out three defensive tackles and wouldn't you know it, John Jenkins was the nose on that team back back in twenty nineteen, and here he is with the Raiders
in twenty twenty three. But Tillery is a Wilkins stealer type, a three hundred pound defensive tackle that plays more four io to five technique off the garden tackle than he does the one technique the shade off the center.
And that's kind of how the whole group is built.
But back to the previous point, I think you're afforded a couple of opportunities for how to try to take advantage of that approach with one if you get them to match you in short yardage defense, we've seen Miami's ability to go empty from twenty one or even twenty two personnel. The beauty of alec Ingold right or number two, get them into those nickel looks and run the football behind a run oriented package once again, which also is your twenty one personnel.
Alec Ingold is a unicorn right. They play a.
Dead split between single and two high pre snap, which makes sense. Most teams find a way to mix it up in terms of what structure you typically get. This is where it's different, and this is where it goes back to Flores Boyer style defense.
Thirty seven percent.
Cover three is one of the highest in the entire league, and that almost always pairs with a good deal of single high because the conversion off of that the defenses will try to confuse opposing quarterbacks with is man free cover one.
What does that mean?
Cover one is just a single high safety and then man coverage all across the board. Times you can zone things off in other spots, but typically man free, single high man across the board. Cover three is where you have a player taking a deep third across the Board's that same single high safety can play the middle center field, and then you have a left field or right field or so to speak, at the cornerback positions that get their depth and there's more hook curl flat zones underneath,
So man, coverage against Miami's not good. But cover three there's a playbook, A lot of playbooks out there will tell you that everything works against Cover three, and that's kind of true.
So good luck, you know, man, Like I don't know, they're remaining forty five percent.
They spend seventeen percent of their snaps in quarters, ten percent in cover two. Those are two, you know, kind of comparable coverages. We've run a lot of that quarters cover two concepts Cover six and then the rest they have some zero and Cover six those are both under five percent. So basically it's a Cover three Cover one defense. It's a lot of the same principles we saw under floor as in Boyer, but a lot less zero.
And a lot less blitzing.
I mentioned less than five percent Cover zero they blitzed just twenty three percent of the time, which is the sixth lowest in the NFL. Structurally, it's primarily that that C one C three look that wants to disguise what they're gonna show you, and that's where I think the attrition at cornerback really really hurts them. It's tough to disguise and make changes on the fly and to adapt to motion and things that happen in the snap like that,
when you're working in new pieces of the lineup. You see that in coverage, you see it in pass protection, you see it in run defense. It's a tough part of injuries, which is obviously a big part of the game. But how you can employ your system with new pieces, that is what truly makes a great coach.
And it's hard to do. It's very, very very hard to do. Up front.
They want to get one thing done, one thing, and one thing. Only find ways to create one v one chances for Max two X's Crosby, though he's not someone that needs that to be productive. I'm not sure I've seen a player who outworks his man of the time like this guy. It's it's insane. The motor is crazy. He's a phenomenal pass rusher. He's athletic, he's bendy, he's strong,
he's determined. He's a perfect player. Only Miles Garrett and Micah Parsons draw more double teams, and all three of those guys still have the pass rush production regardless of how you play them. They want to run big body defensive tackle DN game packages and pick off pieces and attempt to get him those one on one blocks. So you have to communicate inside very very well. Patrick Graham runs one of the most in depth game schemes up front and has big bodies to do it.
And Adam Butler, who I think.
Is a big part of that, and the Dolphins interior since the injury to Isaiah Win with Connor Williams being in and out of the lineup, and we probably won't have Rob Hunt. It looks like this game the inactivity of in terms of repetition with those three guys on the interior, it's kind of defensive line that can give you some problems because they can execute those games if you don't get him passed off.
It's quick pressure, it's quick hits. Its sacks in your quarterbacks.
Max Crosby has nine and a half sacks, fifteen QB hits, thirteen tackles for lost, fifty eight quarterback pressures. That's your primary, your secondary, and your third priority on this team. I doubt you see him rushing Austin Jackson alone very often. And the Jets did do a good job getting their wide running game going a little bit, and we know that Miami can neutralize some of the top pass rushers with one of the best wide zone games and crackback
action in the entire National Football League. So there's always an answer solution to those potential issues that you can find.
But then I think you have.
To trust the rest of your crew to win the one on ones. I would be very surprised if you don't see a ton of one slides isolation slides for Tron Armstead play in the left tackle position, because whether it's Tyree Wilson or Malcolm Coons or whoever, that's not a good matchup for them.
And that's why I think.
It's important to get practice reps all week for your top five because to handle those games, we have to make sure we know what's coming and be able to prepare for them. It's great to have Connor Willies back in the pivot for that main reason again. Adam Butler just be ready for his quickness. No one has a faster first step at that size than him, and it worked for him. He was a big player for us the year that we had him. Here's some numbers, real
quick and some styles, so they're players. Max Crosby fifty eight pressures leads the team and I think he's top three in the NFL.
But he's a master of everything.
Malcolm Coons has twenty, so literally a sixty percent drop off there. I think math is correct correct. He's a length, get off, speed convert to power guy. He kind of reminds me a little bit of like Robert Quinn when we had him here. Adam Butler seventeen pressures, quick, quick, quick, that's my notes there. And then Jerry Tillery's sixteen pressure is long, heavy handed, and a key to their game packages, especially when he pairs with Butler because of how just
physical and heavy handed he is. So it's a well balanced group that has played really well together this year. And you know, Patrick Graham not a big blitzer all time low for him. I wonder if his blitz percentage being his lowest in his career is partly because his mic linebacker is one of the best in terms of
coverage in the league. Three hundred and thirty eight snaps in coverage forty as a rusher with just thirteen pressures just not his game, but three picks and no tds allowed and just two hundred and eighty yards allowed in those coverage snaps.
Those are really good numbers.
He wants to play ford and side to side to get in the hook zone. So well I think Miami does with how they stretch the hook zone with those fifteen to eighteen yard routes. With the threat of the running game, it's a big, big asks for a guy like Splaine, and he reminds me more of a land and robber than David Long, which is why another reason why I'm thinking the Dolphins gonna have a lot of success in this game. Just to be frank, I don't think he can do it. It's a big ass. There
aren't many guys that can. I think he go after him and after him and then pound the middle of that defense with the intermediate passing game, And because the coverage structure and skill outside, I don't think is up for it either. They're thin there, they play off, they give up zone access inside. I think our quarterback is about to go scorched earth in this one. Three hundred and fifty yards, three touchdowns for two a tongue. Bai LOOA would be very surprised if he does not have
a monster day of production here. They've just not had that consistent second perimeter guy outside of Marcus Peters. Meek Robertson was finding his footing there, but he's not gonna play. So it's rookie Jacory and Bennett and PFF has him with one hundred and ninety six coverage snaps and two hundred and seventy yards allowed. Yikes.
I think we go after him.
He tips his leverage and to attacks him choose him up, especially when he expects Splain to be there to take the inbreakers, but it's just too deep. Those are the two guys I'm kind of putting the the uh.
Sombrero on there.
I think Miami has a chance to really get both Tyreek and Waddle going in this game. They don't travel, they zone turn a lot, and I think that inside access will be there. The key will be keeping the linebackers attention with the running game enough to get them to take a step forward. And that's why I'm so pumped get devond A Chan back because the way he threatens you with big plays in the running game, it forces you to not be able to get that depth.
You just can't afford to let him get free runs in the second level. So him being back, I think makes for a big day for all three of those playmakers Wattle, Reekan e Chan. I love their safety combo, but they want to come from depth and fit the run or shade one side. If you go back to their Giants tape, they frequently would flood one side and give you one on one access down the field. So deep shots should be there to be there as well. I just don't see how Miami isn't score at least
thirty points in this game. Let's go ahead and take our last break right there. Come back on the other side and talk about the Dolphins defense versus Aid and O'Connell and this Raiders offense. That's next Draft Time podcast, your host, Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation.
Wednesday.
Raiders Dolphins previous Dolphins are thirteen point favorites at hard Rock Stadium. It's been a long time since that Chiefs loss.
I still want that one back.
Let's go ahead and make it a big victory here against the Raiders, and they go with eight and o'connollat quarterback. Their top receivers are Devonte Adams, who plays ninety one percent of the snaps. Jacoby Myers plays eighty five percent, and then there is a big drop off for Trey Tucker, who plays twenty five percent, but on the slot slash
tight end positions. Hunter Renfro has kind of been doghoused like until he got until they fired McDaniels, which is crazy, right Like Renfro, McDaniels makes a bunch of sense, but it didn't really work out for him that way, thirty seven percent of the snaps for him, Michael Mayers played sixty seven percent the tight end position and Austin Hooper forty seven percent, so lots of heavy personnel groupings inside
for them. And then their guards are Dylan Parham, Andre James is the center and Greg Van Rotten is their right guard rotent sorry, Their tackles are If Colton Miller can't go, that usually means Jermaine Illuminor is in there, and then Thayer Month it is also the other tackle in there, and then the running back Josh Jacobs playing seventy eight percent of the snaps and nobody else really
gets anywhere close to that. Their personnel usage sixty one percent out of eleven personnel, but this has shifted the last two weeks to give these numbers more pop. Twelve personnel is fourteen percent. Twenty one personnel's fourteen percent, so twenty eight percent of your groupings will call for what traditionally is your base defense, which.
Is a lot.
It's a lot in this league, and I that's actually a lot higher because Pierce he told you he wants to run the football.
Good luck with that strategy.
I hope it works out for you when you're not playing Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson. Some opening notes here, Aidan O'Connell has really bad feet man, so when he has to like shift or reset, he can kind of scattershot his passes. It leads to missus potential picks.
Take away primary.
Taking away his primary leads to mistakes because the footwork does not get aligned. He throws pre determined shots. I think we're gonna turn this guy over a couple times. He passes up open one on ones and neglect's coverage, rotating to force the ball into what he saw pre snap, which is a very rookie to do. Their protections don't adjust to the original mic point, so you can really confuse their five man protection calls.
I have to imagine again that's part of a rookie and vixed disguise should cook this dude up.
I came away from you know, the two games study of A and O'Connell actually more impressed by his processing than I thought I would be. Like, I'm not saying it's tua, but for a guy making just his third start this week, did not expect him to be at the level that he is on that Giants tamp especially the Jets got after him. But their front is crazy, their coverage is crazy. But you can see that he
understands the rules and the why behind certain things. He does pump the ball to DeVante Adams, and I get it. But there are some one on one chances to other guys like Jacoby Myers, huge Jacoby Myers fan, and he can make those plays, but the ball does not always go there. So your first question is what do you do with Adams. I think you can mix this a la Travis Kelce. We saw him see Ramsey, we saw him see double teams, we saw him get constant reroutes underneath.
I think from there I would just leave X on.
Jacoby Myers and just go man him up. I always like X against a six to two plus receiver like Myers, a two hundred and ten pound receiver like Myers. He just plays better against those guys than he does the shiftier receivers. So that's kind of my matchup.
I like there.
And then Cater Kohu with Hunter Renfro. I always like Cater against most lot receivers, especially against Renfro. For the Dolphins with Vic Fangio, he can change the picture enough to confuse a young quarterback and provide, you know, sticky coverage with your So nice to have all these guys back Man Ex, Ramsey, Cater, Javon.
Like, it's so nice.
But a couple of times on that film, O'Connell would spray the football because he took away his first read. He had to reset and come back, and the feet get wonky and the ball flies and it always goes back to the feet. And the best way to get bad footwork.
Is to speed things up.
Generate the bad foot work, generate bad throws, generate pas turnovers with your pass rush. So I think you can sort of use that processing against him a little bit because he kind of makes his mind up a lot, and you can play with that because he's so adept at getting it out fast. Maybe he puts it in Harm's way. The key for the Raiders is getting Colt Miller back. Without him, they've struggled with him a lot better. We'll see about his stats, but he did not play
against the Jets on Sunday Night Football. And then just some numbers here for them real quick. Jermaine Iluminor ninety six pbe is not good at tackle. Dylan Parham ninety eight three is pretty good for a left guard, way up from ninety.
Four year ago. He had some rookie struggles.
Andre James ninety seven point seven is not good for a center, Greg van Roten ninety eight it's good enough. And then Thayer Munford is ninety four point four right tackle the Colt Miller's over ninety eight, so you have to get Colton Miller back. Munford has really really struggled with speed off the edge, which to me opens doore
for some possibilities, right. I like Jalen Phillips against anybody, but I also like when you can condense him inside and just let Van Ginkle use his speed off the edge. When you have a matchup like that, you can typically get to your NASCAR package, you know, on third and long situations, which is why it's so critical to stop the run, but to just move Jalen inside let Van Ginkle rush off the edge. I don't know if they can handle that. Where I like our chances here is
they blow protections a lot. I think we blitz a lot because of our ability to cover up on the back end, but because their protection rules inside have been mamblematic, and they often try to sneak a running back up into the A gap for like you know when they mug up their linebackers, and that removes and eligible from the equation. That's why I think you see multiple takeaways in this game. I think you could potentially hit a few explosive plays in the quick passing game, which they'll get those.
Don't get mad on the.
First drive when the hit like a fourteen yard pass on the first third and six of the game.
Like it might happen.
But I think we'll get into situations where we tee off and really force the issue on this quarterback and this offense. Long and Bake should be living in the A gaps. That's what I would do, at least extra hats. In the running game, they're going to run the football. Use your corner skills to match up and just make life really tough and make him have to make fast decisions against this defense. It's been a bit of a work in progress for them in terms of working as
a singular unit. They just there's always an issue on the interior, and that probably goes back to the fact that Parham is his first full time as a starter. Van Rotten's on his third team in three years. I keep saying Rotten rotin, and then Andre James is up and down, but he's been there for a while now. But Miami has the size and quicks to really challenge that communication. Better process it right now because if you don't, Steeler and Wilkins will put you on your back.
I think we just thump them there.
Man. There aren't many matchups. In fact, there isn't one that I like for Las Vegas. Maybe Adams could get some of those, but then it's a rookie quarterback, So like, am I really worried about that?
No, I'm not. Finally, how do you create pass rush opportunities?
Well, you stop the run. They've made no bones about this. They want to play Dave Wantstead ball, which again, good luck, good luck doing that. In twenty twenty three, first. Jacob's leads the NFL and carriers, but the disparity in first down runs for the Raiders compared to the rest of the league is wild since Pierce took over. You guys watched the Bills in Broncos game right, how frustrating was all those first down handoffs that would go for two or
three yards? Like second eight is not a good place to be, my man, like, throw the football. It's almost every series they give the ball with Jacobs on first down, So load it up, stop the run and put O'Connell behind the chains. Again. Good luck, man, good luck. They believe they can move you, and Jacobs can wear you down. But in this heat against this offense, you stop that in the first quarter. You score ten points in the
first quarter. Then this game I think gets off sideways and you force the Raiders to play a game they don't want to play.
Start fast.
That will be one of our keys, but he's a physical bruiser. I think you can start with him and then play the rush. You know, rush lanes, stop Josh Jacobs, you'll stop this offense. Interesting offense, a lot of talent at eight, no collumns disposal, But ultimately I don't think it has enough juice to compete with Miami.
What's at stake in this game?
Every game from here going in is big, but especially the conference and division games. This one obviously falling in the former category. But you saw how dropping games can impact your standing. Literally, you know the rest of the conference last week, right all those teams lost games, and we're sitting here the advantage or the beneficiary of that. Let's not give that right back to the pack by
dropping a game against a bad football team. The playoff slider only has eight percent dispersion this week, more on the negative side of things, a six percent loss in playoff odds and a two percent gain. But the reason for that is because Buffalo is blowing it and we are very heavy favorites to win the AFCs right now.
It's why you're gonna get those high odds.
You have to be thinking division and then from there it comes down to jockeying for top positions in the conference, the one through four seed. The goal in the pass was always to find your way into the top two, right for that first round by that has changed, but now a seven has never beaten a two, and so that means the only way you're gonna get a home divisional game is to get that second seed most likely. So that's to say you can't lose this game and
still obtain a top two seed. I mean mathematically you can, but I think you guys get what I'm saying.
Take care of business. My keys to victory. Start fast.
Anytime you can make an offense with a rookie quarterback one dimensional, that's gonna be tough sledding, especially for a team that's advertising they want to pound the football.
Start fast.
Hopefully we don't have a quarter rust to shake off from the bye week. Just get going early, get that confidence going early, and I would feel pretty good about this team going forward. Number two, Fine Max Crosby every snap, locate him, double him, chip bim, make sure he doesn't get a clean runway. He's a game changer. He'll probably get one or two game changing plays. Don't let it
be more than that. Number three feature the playmakers. Eight chan Back Waddle looks healthy as hell, Tyreek looks rested. First time you had all threes guys together since the Giants game. To me, it's the best three skill players in the NFL on any football team. Get those guys going get the perception of cranking back up, that Miami's unstoppable on offense, and let's have some fun. My areas of concern, I don't have them. Don't let Crosby hit two.
That's pretty much it. And then my arias too exploit heat up a rookie quarterback, go after the intermediate middle of the field passing game against inexperienced secondary, and just chew these guys up.
I'm gonna go full bloodbath here on the prediction. Guys. I think it's ugly. I think it's ugly for the offense for Vegas.
I think what happens when our offense gets a lot of chances in short fields is.
It gets ugly? Ugly, ugly, ugly.
I'm taking a fifty burger here, that's right. You heard me crazy, but you heard me right. Fifty to thirteen. I know it sounds absurd, and I've predicted a lot of these this year, but this is a very very lop sided matchup.
It probably comes out.
To like thirty eight seventeen, which we'll take, right, But I'm going fifty thirteen and we'll come back with you guys in the podcast tomorrow. The Great Ted Win of the Athletic joins me, and then Friday, former Dolphins quarterback Trent Green, who's on the call on Sunday with Kevin Hart, joins me as well. Great to get back in the flow of things. That's my time today on the podcast. You all please be sure to subscribe, rate, review all that fun stuff. Check me out on social at winkfold NFL.
Check out Seth and Juice on the Fish Tank and the pre and post game show. Also the YouTube channel for media availabilities, Dolphins Today and so much more up there, and last but not least, Miami Dolphins dot com. Until next time, Finns Up, Caroline and Cameron Daddy's