Drive Time: Dolphins Patriots Week 8 Preview

eight and the New England Patriots. A chance to sweep a division rival in your building, a place where you've won three straight against that rival and five of the last six. Key matchups, key data points, key film study points, and keys to victory and much much more from the Baptist Health Studios inside the Baptist healths Training Complex. This is the Drive Time Podcast. Maggie Gaffie, My apologies for

the energy on the show. Your boy is sick as a dog and you'll hear that on tomorrow's podcast with Mike Reese as well. So we're trying to get through the week into the weekend with lots of fluids and hopefully feeling better in time for the game on Sunday. The weather for Sunday is supposed to be a little bit breezy, but hot as hell, eighty six degrees on Sunday with a very high humidity point that makes it

feel like ninety degrees. So we've had some nice cold fronts here lately, but it's going to be hot once again for the Patriots, just like we like it against those guys. Speaking of the Patriots, let's get to know them, even though you already know them very well. Once a thorn in our collective side. The Dolphins have really flipped the script here in this series in recent years. The Patriots are in year three post Brady, and it's been

an adjustment that first year. They qualified for the postseason, but had a rough go in the wild card round up in Buffalo, a place where they finally exercised that demon just last week. But I think that season that Mac Jones had as a rookie gets a little bit lost in the weeds after last year's rough experiment with a variety of coordinators and play callers that attempted to

implement that wide zone system that never really took. Eventually they revert back to more man gap concepts in the running game, But though through some injuries and up and down play, it was a challenging sophomore season for Mac Jones and then a rocky start so far here in year three. The reason he was a first round pick was the same reason he found success in that rookie season. He sees the field pretty well, throws a very accurate football,

and he's a good decision maker. I thought we saw some of that on Sunday against Buffalo than we have really all year with Mac Jones. And more on him in a moment, but he's obviously the marquis talking point here in discussing the post Brady era run of eight consecutive trips of the AFC Championship, with three rings over that span and obviously six total over two decades. There

it's hard to fill the shoes of Brady. I mean, Belichick is doing what he's always done, though, and it's no secret to say their draft classes have not developed a lot of star power i e. Pro Bowls and second contracts. But you often need to look at the entire body of roster billing to get a feel for how a team is at constructing, and the bottom line is Belichick, year in a year out, develops a defense that performs well above what you expect them to us

based on paper. They put the clamps on the Bills last week before the fourth quarter, when a couple of late drives for Buffalo with a short field put them in prime position to come back and almost steal that victory. And I think we might look back in that game as like kind of a turning point here in the

AFC East. But from the Patriots perspective, Josh Allen carved them up going back to twenty twenty one, like several games in a row where he didn't even have any punts, So the Bill's offense didn't have any punts in those games. So it's nice for them to be able to get that win to slow Josh Allen down, who by the way, he is in pain. He's banged up. That whole Bills

team is banged up. We're gonna talk about the Buffalo Bills on the Friday podcast and the landscape of the AFC East that I find very promising for your Miami Dolphins.

But today's bout the Patriots. So last year for that defense, eleventh in points allowed the year prior second points allowed, and then back in twenty twenty they were seventh in points allowed, so they're always top ten or on the periphery of it well until this year, and that was after being ranked top in Tom Brady's last year in twenty nineteen, and this year even with the offense really struggled to sustain drives for long periods of time and

now down Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzales, who I would argue are two of their top three players on defense, with Kyle Dugger in there as well. What do you know here? They are fourth in yards per play allowed at four point eight. Now that said, they are seventeenth in total defense and twenty fourth in scoring. But again that to me is a product of turnovers and three and outs on offense putting them in challenging spots. They

average twenty five point seven yards per drive. That's twenty sixth in the NFL one point two toy six points per drive is thirtieth, and then five point six plays per drive is twenty six So maybe an opportunity here for the Dolphins defense to get quick stops, give the offense more possessions, and maybe boat race this team. Hopefully, that's what I'm looking forward to. Additional note here, what's

crazy about that? As Miami averages five point five plays per drive, so They're worse than the Patriots in terms of sustaining drives, but that's a different result because Miami strikes quickly so often, evident by our league leading three point zero one points per drive, which leads the NFL by more than a half or almost a half a point San Francisco's two point sixty four. So Miami has less plays per drive but averages more than double points

per drive than the Patriots do. So structurally, it's still a second Dary driven team that employs six seven eight dB packages on the rig. They get production from every avenue of roster acquisition, the same unheralded D line that deserves way more praise than they get between Dietrich Wise, Lawrence Guy. They've been there since, you know, George Bush

was in office. They imported Von Godshaw from the Dolphins a few years ago, and then Christian Barmore I think would be their next best player that I mentioned with Judon, Gonzalez, Dugger and then Barmore probably he has been probably their best draft hit in recent years. And again they lost their best player in Matt Judon to injury and have really struggled to replace his pass rush production. More on that in the preview, they are twenty six and thirty

two since twenty twenty that includes a playoff loss. They're off to a two to five start, but coming off their biggest win in quite some time, in fact, something of a demon's exercise game for them. They were owned fourteen when the opposition scored twenty five or more points and mac Jones starts, which is what you know, what's weird about that? Miami has not done that to the Patriots very often, even last year in the victory, you know,

twenty points. So this year up in New England is twenty four points and of course the non tua game. But we have two of this week, so I feel very good about it. But Mac Jones is now one and fourteen when the opposition scores twenty four or twenty five or more points. He didn't have a game winning drive and had just one fourth quarter comeback in his career. He now has those both under his belt. And again, there's always fun storylines when these two teams link up.

Let's go ahead and get into those here before our first break on the show, and again apologize for the energy. I tend to think my podcast is good for the research and notes, but I'd like to think that the energy and personality I bring to it is the other reason you come and stay for the podcast. So we're missing one of those two elements to day. But can we win a game and we don't have our best stuff?

That's the idea. Here some key storylines. Now some of this will give us some cross over in the matchup section, so we'll avoid getting into the numbers and the teletape tail of the tape on some of these. Let's go ahead and start here. Miami is five and oh against the Patriots in games started by two a Tongua by lower. From a fundamentals and execution standpoint, I think you can make the case this was Tua's sharpest game of the year.

Back in Week two. The Patriots rolled out a defense that we just simply don't see to try to slow Miami down, and I guess you could say it worked.

I think twenty four points with two miss field goals, so potentially thirty points is an offensive win, especially on ten possessions, because that would be three points per possession, which is a little less than what Miami averages, which leads the league by a big chunk, by a big margin, and for posterity there, the league average is one point nine points per possession, so that's you know, greater than sixty six percent of the league if you can get that.

What the Dolphins did score, even the twenty four points is a full half point per drive better than that league average of one point nine. So you know, four hundred yards is not being shut down. The Eagles at a much better job slowing Miami did than anybody else. But that's my soapbox. The Dolphins were not shut down by the Patriots in week number two. Our next storyline to track here. This is for the next segment. What the hell is the Patriots game plan going to look like?

Will they employ that same look from week two? Will they try to borrow from the Eagles last week who shut Miami down? Will they take what the Vikings did on Monday Night Football against a similar Niners offense and use that. That simple question is going to make this game preview difficult to do, And I wonder how much more difficult it is a game plan for this Patriots team when you quite frankly don't really know what you're gonna get, so maybe you have to feel them out

for the first couple of possessions or so. Next storyline is when we talk about every single time we play this team, is that minimal possessions are had by either side every time these two teams play. Does that change with new coordinators? And again, akin to the first storyline, this game script tends to follow the same well script

every time these two teams meet. Both teams have methodical drives that shortened the number of possessions in a game, and both teams play really well on third down offensively, but even better in the red zone defensively, and you wind up with these seventeen to sixteen finals. You know, for the opener last year, I did a study and found the Dolphins and Patriots games average two point two possessions per team, fewer than league average going back to

twenty twenty. Last year's opener was similar, two possessions fewer for each and the Week seventeen game didn't have the same track, But we were also down a couple of quarterbacks in that game after you know, an in game injury, throwing a wrench into the whole thing, So I kind of throw that one out. But then Week one was similar. Both teams had fewer than league average possessions but more

than the series average. So I think that there was some return to the norm in that sense, with Miami no longer deploying an offshoot of the Belichick scheme and with them going a little more tempo aggressive with Bill Brian O'Brien's attack. But he's operated this you know, same thing on as defense where you don't know what you're gonna get here, because they have had in Houston a deep dropback, slow developing type of system for Deshaun Watson to go big play hunt like he did in Houston.

He's run the quick rpo game at Bama with Tua, a little bit of everything. So maybe not the biggest challenge in terms of personnel, but in terms of having to kind of develop multiple game plans for what you might expect to see. Vick Fangio has the same challenge as Frank Smith and Mike McDaniel do. Next story line, Dolphins are dominant at home on defense against a struggling offense, especially when they come down here really the entire operation.

I mean, Dolphins are three and ozero this season at home, fifteen to two. In their last seventeen games, they average forty four points six points per game at home, five hundred and fifty eight yards per game and eight point eight yards per play with a plus eighty six point differential in this building. The last couple of years, the defense at home has just been entirely a different beast. Over those seventeen games, two hundred and sixty seven points

allowed is fifteen point seven points per game. That's why it's so key for Miami to try to find a way into home field advantage in this upcoming postseason. The Patriots point outputs in Miami last year seven, twenty twenty one, twenty four, and twenty twenty just twelve. So the three year average of Mac Jones games in Miami, they score just fourteen points per game. So the numbers tell you Miami can hold the Patriots under twenty in this one,

and I think it's pretty rare. See the Dolphins offense go under twenty, so I like our chances there. And then finally, of course you have to mention, actually sorry, I have two more here former Fins and Patriots Parker Gasiki Godshaw, Barrios Bailey, and Bethel Isaiah Winn was in there, but he no longer is active. Some more recent than others. You know, Gasiki, Bailey and Win were on the other side for that Week seventeen game last year. Parker is

in his second year with the Patriots. Godsha been there since twenty twenty. Similar timelines for Barrios and Bethel, but lots of familiar already here in division. Not as much coaching staff carryover as there once was, but it's always fun for me to watch who can have a good day against their former team. And then how about this for you guys for the last storyline double digit favorites

for the Dolphins here. This is the third game in the last four that Miami's going to be double digit favorites. I've seen lines of ten, I've seen lines of twelve, but I'm going with a twelve point line here since Draft Kings the league's official website, right, they covered both times against the Giants, which was also twelve down here a couple weeks back. They covered that with a fifteen point win, and then covered a fourteen point spread against

the Panthers with a twenty one point win. And here's the key storyline. We typically don't lose games as favorites with Tua under center. Eighteen point or eighteen and five, I should say, in games favored to win in his career. The Chargers and Packers last year were two losses Denver twenty twenty and then back in twenty twenty one that you know, atrocious two game stretch against Jacksonville and Atlanta

that really basically cost Miami the playoffs that year. But teams that are double digit dogs rarely, rarely come out victorious in the final score. The twenty nineteen Dolphins won three such games as double digit dogs, and that's what sold us all on Brian Flores, right, But winning with those rosters and you know, five games versus winning with expectations and winning ten games to get to the playoffs. Different ballgame, as we came to find out a couple

of years after that. But that was the first and only time that's ever happened, a team winning three games as double digit dogs in one season. The Patriots just scored a double digit dog win against Buffalo at home in Miami. I don't think it's gonna happen. Let's go ahead and take our first break right there and come back on the other side and break down the Dolphins offense first, Patriots defense, that's next Draft Time Podcast, your

host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation. Feels good to be back on a Wednesday here talking about another football game. Man. I always tell myself, I'm not gonna get too beat up over the losses, but these two losses this year have kind of taken it out of me for a couple of days. So I'm excited to get back to hard Rock Stadium and hopefully beat

the crap out of the New England Patriots. Go ahead and preview the Dolphins offense versus Patriots defense, and just looking at the matchups here, you guys kind of know what to expect. I mean, the safety, it's gonna be trying to the limit to a tongue of by Lowa. Kyle Duggars played ninety five percent of their snaps, Jabrill Peppers ninety two percent, and then a big fall off for Adrian Phillips the third safety to play twenty percent

of the snaps. But I expect you might see more of that because I expect to see that three safety look again they ran in week number two. Uh, the frequency of it, we'll see, but I think they would be crazy to go away from that plan and just using Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers in a variety of roles, as those two guys have had so much success this year, you know, fitting the run down in the box, playing you know, off and coverage, covering tight ends like those

guys are such good players. It's gonna be a key to account for both of those guys, the corners who are going to go up against Tyreek and Jalen and Cedric Wilson on the outside. Jonathan Jones is back. I expect you'll see him shadow Tyreek with some help a bracket where they literally clamp him. And then that means Jalen Wattle could get some one on one looks against the guy like j C. Jackson who's back and just back in time to get picked on by two once again.

Never should have made those comments back in twenty twenty one. J C. Jackson, Jalen Mills plays twenty six percent of the snaps and then Jack Jones is back, and I want you to keep an eye on Jack Jones because he's only played seven percent of the snaps this year, But gosh, he's a good football player. He arrives with you know, ferocity, he's a good return guy. I just

like his game a lot in the slot. Miles Bryant has played eighty percent of their snaps and Sean Waye has played thirty one percent of their reps as well. So Barrios and Smythe I don't think it's a good tight end game because I like their safeties in coverage and even julying to either linebacker quite a lot. But I think Barrios could get some one on one looks inside and really be kind of like a you know, a six catch for sixty yard type of game for Braxton.

But I really expect Wadal to get off on the outside defensive line of Dietrich Wise sixty seven percent, Christian Barmore fifty nine percent, Lawrence Guy fifty three, Devon Godshaw fifty two. So there you go. That's four you know, Wilkins and Sealer type of players that play more than half the snaps. So you get really strange formations from this Patriots defense. I mean, we know what that looks like, right, We saw it with for years here with Flora some

boyer running you know, heavy ends. You know, essentially three defensive tackles who run these odd fronts where you then bring down your linebackers off the edge and give you essentially a five to one or a five to two look. And nobody runs more base in this Patriots team. And it's really kind of intertwined there with those big bodies on the interior who also play that you know, five technique end as well, and they're gonna go up against Is it gonna be Lester Cotton, I don't know, We'll see.

I would go with Rob Jones personally. Is it gonna be Connor or Liam That's a that's the biggest discrepancy on the entire football team besides the quarterback position in terms of starter and backup. And then Robert Hunt, who just is kicking everybody's ass this year off the outside. Lamb and Jackson, we know about those two guys and

they've both had really good years. And this is where I think Miami can really you know, help in terms of scan protect inside, pull alec Ingold inside or drham smythe to block the interior, because without Matt Judon, I don't think any of these guys match up well one on one against Lamb or Jackson. And that's Anthony Jennings,

who he's forty six percent of the snaps. He doesn't really have a great rush arsenal, but he's got super long arms, so he can kind of redirect and get that second effort sack if you, you know, pump and hold the ball for too long. I do like josh

Ucha's explosiveness. Now he's coming off an injury, so we'll see how much he plays just thirty percent of the reps this year, and then Keon White, also coming back off an injury, twenty eight percent of the snaps, and we'll see how effective those guys can be coming back after a couple of weeks off with injuries. So I like Miami's front to handle their front, even with the

potential backups that we have in place there. And then of course Rahem Moster and Savon Ahmed going up against the linebacker crew that seemed like it's been there for the last several years. Juwan Bentley plays ninety five percent of the snaps July Tevia sixty six, and then Marte mop who is a new name, twenty five percent of the snaps. He's kind of like a buck linebacker, like a safety linebacker convert. And you know, this third defense in general has faced so much attrition in the defensive

backfield this year. Jack Jones is back again. He looks awesome. But Christian Gonzal being down is so huge. He was a pivotal piece to that team. And I think that he would have been the guy that would have matched up on Jalen. You know when you bracket Tyreek with Jonathan Jones and somebody else, But they don't have a good option for Jaylen Waddle in this game. Marcus Jones is still on IR as well, so they went out and got j C. Jackson. He's played a lot for him.

If that's the case, then you know, good luck, good luck to you guys. Jonathan Jones has the smaller workload because of an injury, but again he's back and a really good player. And then Miles Bryant that primary slot guy. That's why I like Braxton a lot. I think Braxton matches up well against Miles Bryant. And even with that banged up edge, they still operate more base than anybody

else in the NFL. And you're gonna see, you know, there's different variations of that that they can run, whether it's you know, if you're in a base and you've got seven guys up front. It can be a five too, it can be a six to one, or it can be like a two five like, they have different options they can roll with in this front. Seven, Their flexibility,

their versatility are all so key for them. So three four which again there's varieties of this, but twenty seven percent of the time four to three eight percent, So that gives you a total of thirty five percent in a base look, which means you only have four dbs in the field, which means there's not a lot of speed out there to cover Tyreek and jayln Waddle. Now I think it'll change this week because of the personnel they face. Nickel thirty five percent and then Dime twenty

five percent. So basically, base downs, we load up the box, we get bigger and more physical than you, and then on third downs we pull all the dogs off and basically run you know, six to seven defensive backs on the defensive side. For what it's worth, they have not run that three high safety look against anybody else the way they did against the Dolphins this year more than half the snaps in that game, and have not topped more than three snaps in three high in a game

otherwise this year. I alluded to this in the open What plan will they deploy? I think this is the primary challenge for McDaniel en staff is you probably need three game plans in terms of what you might expect to see, and to have mentioned it after the Patriots game, they did a total change up based on their week one look against the Eagles to week two agains to us or the typical Patriots. Look, there's just no reason

to think they won't do that again. And when I say common Patriots, look, yes, they will change it up by opponent, but traditionally blitz heavy, man free, you know, single high safety odd fronts with those big heavy ends and lots and lots of dime and dollar defense. That said, there's one thing you can count on. They are going to bracket Tyreek. They do it every single time. They've done it since he was in Kansas City. And they always use Jonathan Jones's four to three speed to try

to negate what he can do. Now, Tyreek did split a double team against the Eagles. I think the Patriots are more fundamentally sound to not let that happen. We'll see, and a great ball from two it helps too. But for whatever reason, you know, nobody has limited the Cheetah the way the Patriots do annually. But when you have a strong number two option behind that, that's where you can eat. That's why it's such good news that Wattle is back in practicing and will probably play in the

game on Sunday. I think Wattle I've said this probably five times this year, so you can tell me I'm stupid for going back to the well. I think Wattle goes off in this one one hundred yard game of the season, maybe multiple touchdowns. Back in Week one against J. C. Jackson, Hill had three for eighty one, Wattle had two for forty against him, and Waddle's last three games against the Patriots not crazy high catch volume ten catches, but two hundred and seven yards is pretty good for a three

game total. All thanks told, Tua has in a great job of spreading the ball around against these Patriots, and while I think we will get a similar look than what we saw from week number two, you can't guarantee it. That's for sure. The best way to attack that is take your short stuff, run the football successfully, and don't get bogged down by procedural issues. Didn't have the issues up in New England last time. The other couple of road games, the Bills and the Eagles, we did so

for the home game. I don't expect you have that. I expect Miami to be sharp in that regard. That was the recipe in week two. They executed it again. Three touchdowns in a field goal is pretty good, but two more miss field goals thirty days, thirty points potentially there. That's a successful dig against a team that has struggled to score for the Patriots offense, at least until last week. But more on that on the other side of the break here. To me, there are two key two keys

to this defense well, I guess three. Number one is to always locate Kyle Duggar. He's a game changing playmaker. He'll peel off his coverage and wind up in a place he's not supposed to be. And there are a few safeties if any who come from depth to make plays better than he does. So he might be a key to limiting Miami's outside run game and the extension of the run game with the screen game, as he tends to find a way to make plays on those plays.

Got to locate and get a hat on number twenty three. Every single snap for the Dolphins. Next is to find secondary options. Again, they love to double and that's a pretty obvious double option here with Tyreeks. You got to spread the ball around as we covered it. And then

three is to stay on blocks up front. Anytime you get a big front against a smaller front, you know they want to play a heavy handed stack and shed and you know two gap, they'll have to have good gap discipline and want to rush the quarterback akin to how we did it last week, where it's kind of, you know, reset the line of scrimmage by playing through

your man, not around them. So I think that all the misdirection, all the motions, all the ball fakes that we run, I think that's where you stand to really help prevent two or from getting sacked. You know, he got sacked one time in the game last time around. I think that could be similar this week with one or no sacks onto a tongue Maila. I don't think Connor's absence in this game will be felt nearly as much as it was last week. If he can't play,

we'll see what happens this week in practice. But then again, I thought Derek Brown could cause some issues in the Panthers game, and he didn't do anything in that game. So that's where it comes down to McDaniel neutralizing a

defensive line with the previous detail regarding misdirection. But I think the Patriots front with you know, the safety support we talked about from Kyle Duggar, and there are so many fronts in this defense where the dB inserts itself, like inside of your outside linebacker, like a marble front. We've broken down on the podcast so many times before. Though. You know, Patrick Chung was always the guy that used to put down there in the sea gap and he

would go fit a gap in the running game. I think if they do that here, it's a big mistake because you cannot leave the speed the Dolphins have on the perimeter alone. But if you don't do that, mine, he's gonn run the football. They did it last time. So for instance, Miami ran off the left edge last time eight times for twenty five yards. They tried the right edge three times for fifteen yards. So not bad on balance, but check this out. Runs between the tackles

twelve for ninety four and a touchdown. Doing that executing in the short intermediate passing game, that's how you get these nine to ten possession games. The Patriots must get stops in the red zone to keep it close. So that's where I think this game is won. And luckily for Miami, seventy eight percent red zone conversion is way out in front of the rest of the NFL. It's best in football. How about this. The Patriots offense is fourth. Would you believe that two thirds of the time they

get in the red zone they score. But the problem is they only have fifteen trips down there, the fifteenth fewest. On defense, they rank eighth with a forty five point eight percent red zone possessions resulting in touchdowns. And for posterity, Miami's defense is not good in that regard, twenty seventh at two thirds of the time allowing touchdowns and red zone possessions. It's an interesting matchup because we aren't the

biggest line, but you play so fast. This is a big, big front that goes, you know, that way through their entire back front seven, which is why Miami's ability to run the football and influence those base defenders and throw into the windows that creates. That's where Miami can find space. Now that's said, they do have a linebacker in July and Tobai I think who found his footing after he got drafted by the Lions, and you know, Matt Patricia

didn't know what he was doing, so didn't work there. Then he get traded to the Patriots and all of a sudden, what do you know has a role in that same defense that's better coached, and man, he's really looked good for them. He's second on the team and stops. He's allowed only thirty seven yards on one hundred and one coverage snaps and has eight pressures on thirty eight pass rush attempts. So really athletic player and their matchup eraser,

if you will. Now, when they go to that base package, if Miami stays in twenty one personnel, I like the Dolphins opportunities to hit the vertical passing game. So if it's just Tyreek and Waddle on the field at the same time, I think you could run a lot of alec ingold action and somedrm smythe action to kind of you know, sell the inside running game and hit those successfully.

But when they pull that base defense out against your fast twenty one person or even your twenty one personal grouping in general, I think Miami can hit explosives out of that package I'm looking for. I think Waddell has like one long touchdown, maybe one other long play in this game, and goes for like a buck thirty in the game. That's kind of my bold prediction on this one. As far as their guys, you gotta worried about up front the pressures leaders Wise has nineteen, has seventeen, Barmore

has sixteen, and Juwan Bentley has twelve. He also leaves a team of twenty three stops. I think the matchups across the board come down to Miami's ability to strike first, like fire out of your stance, don't let the guys get into your chest, play and control the rep with explosiveness where you can out leverage them. If we can do that, I think we can win one on ones outside when they present. And I just really like Tua's ability to find solutions against this defense. He always plays

well against the Patriots. They never blitz him. He stays patient and finds his yardage through rhythm and timing. And I like Miami's chances to put up a big number, not a huge number, but a good number here against the Patriots in this one about the other side of the football on defense. Well to that next Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Winfield, brought to you by Auto Nation.

We've done Dolphins offense first, Patriots defense. Now we're going to talk about how Miami can continue their hot streak at home on the defensive side of the football, and we'll see what happens at safety. I think that Nick Needham getting activated this week could have a potential impact in that spot. And if it's not, Jevon Holland, and I think maybe Deshaun Elliott plays that post position and really gives you the range back there. And then Brandon

Jones Elijah Campbell. How they impact Mac Jones will be a big key in this game. Their receivers are Kendrick Bourn leads away at seventy five percent of the workload. Devonte Parker plays two thirds of their snaps at receiver both inside and outside, and then on the slot to Mario Douglas plays twenty six percent, but that's that number has gone way up in recent weeks. Hunter Henry is their top option on offense seventy six percent of the workload.

Mike Gasicki's played half the snaps and then Faroh Brown has played twenty five percent, So they love those three tight ends to roll those guys out in various packages. Their offensive lines back and healthy. That's the biggest difference I think in this game in terms of the matchup, because Miami really exploited that Patriots offensive line back in Week two. But cole Stra back, he's a really good player. David Andrews has been good for a long time city

so is the right guard. He is back in the lineup. And then Trent Brown left last games last week's game with an injury but returned. And then Michael on Wen who is in his second week at right tackle. He looks pretty good out there as well. Just a much healthier offensive line who had backup tackles the last time he came out here, and I think the tackle play will make a big difference to the Patriots offense this time around. There's not a bigger tackle combo in football.

Brown is three seventy and on when who is three to fifty, So again size advantage Patriots here. Their personnel usage eleven personnels fifty one percent, and then nobody runs more twelve and then New England Patriots thirty three percent at the time they have two tight ends in the field. They also run a lot of thirteen personnel. It's nine

percent of their snaps that's three tight ends. And they do run some twenty one action, but it's no fullback for the Patriots offense four percent of the time in their fast twenty one personnel, that twelve personnel package leads the way. And that's why I think if Holland can't go, you just stay in single high, man free, you know, single high regardless. You could mix some some zone coverages in there, but constantly insert either Brandon Jones or Elijah

Campbell into the run fit. And honestly, I would take Campbell because he's been a better player this year in a small sample size. But the bottom line is this, if you hold the Patriots to what you did last week, you know, three yards per carry or whatever it was,

then it's going to be a blowout. Now, have the Patriots found something offensively because of their rush EPA the last two weeks is point h nine that's fourth in the NFL over those two weeks, and their success rate, you know, four yards on first down, half the distance on second down, conversions on third and fourth down was it fifty seven point one percent over the last two games. That's the best in football. So they found some running game.

They've also utilized motion more in the last two games, the third highest compared to fourteenth highest in the first five games. So you know that's where it starts, right stop the run. Prior to that, they were last in rush EPA and twenty ninth in rush success rate. Of course, that leads to the least productive offense in terms of EPA in the entire league. If Miami gets that. With the way this defense at homes and flies around a third down, the Patriots won't score more than single digit

points in this game. The run success has produced more success off play action, going from less than seven yards per past to twelve yards the last two weeks. On play action passing, getting healthy on the line, kicking on one who out running the football more, and involving Born and to Mario Douglass along with the tight ends in the run pass game. That's been the recipe for success. But when you look at that group right there, like,

does that group of eligibles scare anybody? I mean, they've had a good run in like a game and a half, but I would never worry about that group of eligibles based upon the NFL standards. So we'll we'll see about Javon Hollands availability. I figure you'd get more work from both Jones and Campbell in this game, but we'll see what they want to do again Miami. You know they ran a lot more single high in the game against the Patriots in Week two than they have in other

games this year. I think that tracks for an offense that just has no field stretching ability whatsoever. Condense those short windows, jump some short routes at a hat in the box against the running game. And again that's what both Jones and Campbell do best. And Elliott's range has been a hallmark trade of his so far in the back end. So the solution to me is obvious to pinch and squeeze everything ad a hat to the bucks in the running game, challenge those short routes. That could

be a solution. Because Mac Jones averaged just four point four air yards per attempt in that twenty nine point output against Buffalo last week with a time to throw average of two point one to nine seconds. Now a lot of that comes to the screen game, which I think Miami defends very well. Despite the Goddard touchdown last week. That was just a perfect call against the blitz. Another reason to play close to line scrimmage. You know, if they can't hit a deep ball or two, maybe that

changes things, but they've not done that all year. Mac Jones is five for twenty five, throwing the football twenty plus air yards this year for three twenty five, two touchdowns and a pick that was exaving Howard's pick. And it's not like it's not there for them. No one really respects the deep ball, so they have chances, they just can't hit it. And speaking of X, hopefully we get him back this week. But I think that you know a guy that matches up against big bodies, and

we saw it in training camp. He dominated Devonte Parker every time those two guys went up against each other. So that's like shut down Devonte Parker will give help elsewhere and handle the rest. I like cater Co, who's quickness inside against de Mario Douglas and their screen game.

So to recap extra hat in the box, you know, disrupt the short stuff, and I think heat up Mac Jones, who's getting blitzed at twenty four percent of the time this year, and on those plays he gets the ball out quick, he sees it well, completes a high percentage sixty seven percent ball out in two point oh four seconds, but just six yards per pass in one touchdown against the blitz. But you only do that if you're confident

you can take away the quick game. Because when he's not blitzzed, Mack has thrown six picks like he's not getting pressured and blitz he's he's still throwing the ball to th team quite a lot, same completion percentage sixty seven percent. So maybe it's not a blitz game plan. That's you know, we'll see. But finally there's a chance to get another multi takeaway game from Miami Max. Ball security has been a problem this year. He's had several passes slip out of his hands. He's got two fumbles

fourteen on the career. He's thrown seven picks this year, just four away from the entire season total of last year. The way you generate this is sticky coverage on a group of eligibles that does not separate at all. They're all really low in that category. But I think the way you stop I think that's why you stop the run game, you win the game because they are able

to get into it. Really with Steven sim and Exekiel Elliott powerful runners who can turn second and nine and second and six, which is why it's so critical to get extra hats to the party to force those guys down, forcemen a long down distances. If they're in third and seven plus all game, you're going to destroy this team. It's a big key this week, and frankly, not just with man coverage, because the best ways to thwart those anticipatory throws is to have dbs with eyes in the quarterbacks.

And that's why I think if we see Rams this weekend, and I think you will, you could see him making a big play in his debut. But if not for him, you know nick ning him back in the fold, hopefully exabing Howard as well, so you're getting healthier on that back end. Some matchups that I like, you know, I thought Jalen Phillips tape against Lane Johnson was awesome and his speed to power like inside crossover move is a good way to get bigger offensive tackles to overset and

give up that inside post. I'd look for that this week. Also just glad to hear David Longs doing will because man, if we get that version of him the rest of the year, with Ramsey coming back, Phillip's getting heated up Sealer, and Wilkins kicking ass inside, the defense will come together sooner than later, even without Holland. I think this is a week we see utter dominance as a result on defense.

I think you shut the run game down. I think you generate multiple takeaways, give the offense some shorter fields, and make this game look a lot like the Week two game, but with a better second half. And that takes it to our next segment here. What's at stake, Quite frankly a ton Divisional games are huge and amplified by that Bill's lost to these guys last week. So by getting that sweep in this one, you put yourself at an advantage in terms of potential tiebreakers in the

AFC East. Of course, losing to Buffalo in Week eighteen would swing that tiebreaker back in their advantage for the head to head tiebreaker, but you can put yourself in a position for that game with wins over the Patriots and then even just a split over the Jets, which I don't expect that either. Even on a short week AGAINSTEC I still liked all to beat the Jets as long as two A players, I like chances to beat

the Jets. But where if you beat them in week eighteen and you get two of these three against the Patriots and Jets, you would then have a four and two divisional mark to their three and three because they've already lost to the Patriots and Jets both. So it's huge for that purpose. It's huge to stay a game

out in front of them. They play tomorrow night at home against Tampa, who has hit a slump, So I think there's a good chance you enter Sunday with just a half game lead over Buffalo, then keeping pace with Kansas City who plays Denver. They're going to win that game. The Ravens, who play the Cardinals, they're going to win that game. Who I think, are you know, the cream of the crop right now besides Miami in the AFC,

so plus you're at home. Not to get too far ahead, but I think Miami should expect to win every game at home the rest of the way, especially leading into those late December games with Dallas and Buffalo, which your upcoming slate against teams at home two and five Patriots, three and four Raiders, two and four Titans, and the three and three Jets, and quite frankly, I think all those teams are worse than those records. To indicate, the

playoff probability scale reflects the importance of this game. Summer Sports has Miami at seventy eight percent for the playoffs right now, but a win can bump them all the way up to eighty seven percent. At six and two heading into the second half of the year, a loss goes eleven percent in the other direction down to sixty seven percent, So it's a big game. Gotta win this one.

Three keys win in the red zone. These games typically have limited possessions, so seven points compared to three is massive. Quickest way to turn a game around. Both offenses execute a high rate in the red zone. Key number two. Take what the defense gives you that three high safety birds on offense defense, they want to run bracket tyreek, whether it's run game, spread the ball around, wattle, hitting some big plays, just playing smart and then executing once

you get into the red zone. Keys for TUA and the offense and when they gamble and butch you make them pay number three, control the line of scrimmage. Everything the Patriots do successfully on offense works off the running game, and then their size on the defensive line of something you have to combat. So if Miami can control the line of scrimmage, no chance the Pages can win. If they don't win the battle in the trenches. My areas

of concerned, I don't really have any this week. If their run game gets going, I'll be concerned, but I don't think it will. And if our backup center plays that always worries me. Areas to exploit take chances on defense against an offense with no explosive weapons and a quarterback who drops his eyes against the rush. If you get your pass rush cranked up like we've seen him in this building, against this team and against anybody else, you're gonna force him into a bad game. That's what

he does. If he gets hit and pressured, he turns into not a good quarterback. And then also run the football against their light fronts they're gonna play, you know, I assume they'll play that three high safety look. If they do that, run the ball, run the ball, run the ball. By prediction, I think Miami comes out with something that something to prove in this game and puts together some early scoring drives. I think you see another two touchdown lead from Miami. They had that last year

down here in September. I think it was seventeen to nothing. They had that in the game up in Foxborough. I think it was seventeen to three. I think you get the exact same thing, but a better second half. I'm gonna go ahead and take a run game that saw it's the away in the second half, and Miami wins this one twenty seven to ten, maybe thirty to ten, but we'll go with twenty seven to ten for now. That's the prediction. That's the podcast. Again, apologize for the energy.

I just don't have it in me. I'm going to go home. Thursday's podcast is also almost complete, so hopefully by Friday, I've got some more juice for you guys here, But in the meantime, it's going to be in my time. You all. Please be sure to subscribe, rate, review all that fun stuff. Follow on social at linkfold NFL. Check

out the fish Tank podcast with Seth and Juice. The YouTube channel for Media Availabilities and Dolphins Today and last but not least Miami Dolphins dot Com until next time Finza Calan Cameron Daddy is sick and he's coming tow