Drive Time: Dolphins Patriots Week 5 Preview

o'clock kickoff on CBS against the New England Patriots. It should be a beautiful all day in the New England region with highs of sixty nine degrees, a slight breeze, nice by the way, and a minimal chance of rain on a partly cloudy day. Let's go ahead and meet the Patriots. And I'm realizing how long it's been since we've played these guys. The Patriots series wrapped up last year prior to Halloween, and that actually sparked my interest. When was the last time we finished a division series

prior to Halloween? In twenty twenty one, we wrapped up the Bill series on Halloween, but the last time we played New England. Knew the Jets or Buffalo twice before October twenty ninth, which was when the game was last year. The date we wrapped up the Patriots was twenty twelve. We played the Jets in Week three that year and then on my birthday October twenty eighth, when we blew the doors off of them, and I remember that game

very well. Tannehill got hurt on the first drive, Matt Moore came into the game, Olivier vern had a blocked punt for a touchdown, and we smoked them thirty to nine. Anyway, Tangent aside, we know the Patriots right, We know you?

last season and now he's in the big chair. He elevated DeMarcus Covington, the defensive line coach, to DC and brings in yet another branch of the Shanahan tree to run the offense in Alex van Pelt, who is a first time play caller for the Patriots. He also worked Van Pelt did with Zach Taylor and Kevin Stefanski before

landing with the Patriots. This year, they use their third pick in the draft on Drake May, the quarterback from North Carolina, and he awaits his turn behind veteran Jacoby Brissett, who returns to New England, who drafted him after stops in Indie, Miami, Cleveland, and Washington. A lot of the mainstays on the roster well. They are Saya Nara as well Trent Brown, Lawrence s Guy, J. C. Jackson, Adrian Phillips,

Matt Judon gone, Billy Bean, Brad Pick gone. David Andrews is down for the season as well, so lots of guys that have played a ton of snaps for this team over the last three, five, even ten years are now gone as they rebuild this thing following a four win campaign last year, and it's off to a pretty slow start at one and three. They're also the only team that hasn't surpassed a thousand yards on the season. So with that, look forward to a fun game on Sunday.

Patriots offense their scheme, let's talk about it. I think you start with the foundational belief that the offense starts through the run game, and you know what that means from this tree, the outside zone game. But not so fast,

my friends, as the well he's still kicking. But Lee Corso famously once said this is actually one of the more diverse attacks in the league with the mix of zone and man concepts, which I also find fitting since they had that hilarious pivot in twenty twenty two when they had their season opener down here, and we heard about it all training camp long, how they were trying to employ a zone system after years of being a gap system that played power football right in your face,

especially coming off that Cam Newton season, trying to just get vertical and go downhill on you only to pivot to the zone that year, despite having like no coaches with zone experience or a personnel that had no zone experience either, and it looked that way the entire season. But this year the Splits go fifty six gap runs and thirty nine zone runs and they've been happy to just take what's there from a numbers in box count.

And they actually enabled Jacoby Brissett, which to me kind of speaks to why they want to keep him in the offensive lineup because they need a guy that can do that behind an offensive line that has a crazy amount of injuries, because he can make those checks at the line and he's plenty happy to do that. With the passing game, it's a lot more familiar to Dolphins fans, a mix of max protection but also five eligibles into

the pattern. They change it up, reduced number of true dropbacks with all the action you get in the running game, and how that marries to play pass. I guess the cliffs notes version would be that the Shanahan style attack with more of a power running element. Maybe you can just say they want to be the Rams, although their personnel falls like hilariously short of that. How do you attack it. This is going to sound extremely simple, but keeping them behind the chains by stopping the run and

doing that by adding hats in the box count. I think the lack of a true vertical presence allows you to be a little bit more aggressive in how you defend it. I mean, they've only attempted eight passes through four games beyond twenty yards all season, and they've only hit one of those, and that play produced a hilarious twenty one yards. Brissette is one of eight for twenty one yards on deep passes. It's the fewest attempts for any team and by far the fewest yards in the

deep passing game. Tua had one throw that was quadruple that amount to Tyreek Hill back in Week one. We saw the Jets do this back in the Week three game, which wasn't it funny? You know, we're terrible, so, like, you know, I guess misery loves company, But wasn't it funny seeing Jets fans, like, after clouding on us for getting excited about beating the Patriots last couple of years, act like that was the Super Bowl championship for them, and then they go to they played Denver a home

and just get they lay an egg. I thought that was hilarious. But anyway, we saw them in that Week three game just load up and have a hat in every single gap and probably even got a little bit gratuitous in how they fit the run. But it didn't matter because New England can't do a damn thing about it, and just flood it with wave after wave. Go seven eight guys in the bucks. That's what I would do, and that leads us to our first key and the

big three against the New England offense. E I'm just kidding, but number one, challenge them to beat you deep. And this doesn't mean to just give them deep shots. Don't be like, oh, throw it deep and we'll leave you uncovered, but rather what you can take away while you attempt to force them into the throws where they haven't gotten them all year down the field. Back to the Jets.

They played with seven or more men in the box in that game against the Patriots and even got some of those six one looks we saw from Vic Fongial when we saw the Eagles shut down the Saints with seven or eight in the box on eighteen of the forty five plays. The Patriots ram and the Patriots produced thirty one yards on those eighteen plays. If they can't run the ball, they can't move the ball. They have a terrible quarterback, a terrible offensive line on terrible skill players,

Like that's what you get. Conversely, the Patriots success rate running against lighter boxes was forty six percent, not great, but much better than the twenty eight percent success rate they had against heavy boxes. We saw Javon Holland insert into the run fit or pass rush against the Titans on Monday, and he came as a rusher on that rep that led to a key Jordan brook sack, or at the time was key before the game fell apart. So he's kind of one of the keys I look

at in this regard. The Dolphins have played plenty of split safety all year long. They've inverted that, they've robbed. I think weavers diversity and his calls has been the best aspect of this team four games in, and I'm wondering if you maybe even go as far as like that twenty twenty one Ravens plan where you just take away the run, see if they want to challenge you deep, and if they can't do it, then you shut him

down for sixty minutes. The Ravens got that one deep ball early and it was like dropped in the back of the end zone or didn't get tracked properly, and they didn't never went to the rest of the game, and the Dolphins like, was it like a ten point total and that touchdown came like in the garbage time at the end of the fourth quarter. Pop Douglas is their best option for that, maybe Jalen Polk And again, I think Douglas's speed is more short area and horizontal

than it is running vertical on top of guys. But I digress, and quite frankly, I think Ramsey is equipped to dominate either any matchup he gets in this game. They did open up Kendrick Bournes' twenty one day practice windows so he could return and shoot. Maybe Ramsey gets some matchups with their best pass catcher right now, who is not a receiver but rather a tight end and hunter Henry. But yeah, you stop the Patriots run, you flood the quick and intermediate game, and the odds are

you will not get beat deep. But just to cover the whole thing, perhaps that thinking could come into play. We don't want to like bust something and give them a freebie when they struggled so bad. So you have to be cognitive of that. But I'm saying, like, challenge him to go that way, because I don't think they

can do it. But given the way games have played out, you might need a lights out performance from the defense because you might have to shut him out and score yourself based upon how the Dolphins' offense is going right now, and that means creating negatives and turnovers and my tape. So he tells me that might be the best way to do it. The second thing for the Patriots offense pressure burst pipes. And I'm I'm very weird in the way phrases or cliches or even memes that have like

too long of a shelf life. For instance, i was watching a golf shot for shot video the Great Luke Kwan channel check him out, and he had a guy on a show, and this might have been right when the meme came out, but he referenced Hawk Tua like five times in the first hole of the round, and I'm like, I just can tell you right now, I'm not friends of that guy. I'll never be friends of that guy because if you make your personality a stupid meme, like I don't mess with that. That's not funny at all.

It's not original, it's not creative. And I kind of feel like pressure makes diamonds or pressure burst pipes, Like I just don't like using it. It's been around too long, but it has never been more applicable.

ninety one point nine PBE score. For comparison, Tristan Wurfs is going of the highest score tackle with a threshold amount of reps you have to qualify, and his score is ninety eight point seven. For instance, Kendall Lamb is a ninety eight point zero. Like ninety seven is about the threshold you get from the top performers. For the most part, this guy's a ninety one to nine second second year player. Cd So is a fourth rounder from last year who had a PBE of ninety three point six.

And for guards that threshold is even higher. Laverett, I think that's how you say it was undrafted in twenty twenty, didn't make a roster, played forty snaps in twenty one. Filled in is a backup in Tampa in twenty two for five hundred reps, didn't play any snaps last year, and now because of these injuries here he is in the lineup once again. But he has not a lot of pressure in thirty six pass blocking reps. But I

suspect that changes on Sunday. Demanterrey Jacobs didn't play a game last year as a UDFA with the Broncos, and now he too is up for injuries with fifty one pass blocking snaps and eight pressures allowed with a PBE of ninety. So it's been a struggle, but the Dolphins have their own injury issues to take advantage of this, at least off the edge. We just heard that Jalen Phillips is out for the season. Oh my god, I feel horrible for that young man. He god, man, I

thought good things supposed to happen to good people. Dude, that's the best person I've met in this whole freaking run of Jelen Phillips and this back to back years. Like, I can cancel the season, man, And I know it's been a key just about every week, but it's because they're playing so well that I expect Campbell and Sealer to absolutely wreck shop on an interior offensive line that has shuffled parts, new parts, and quite frankly, not enough talent to handle what those guys can do from a

strength and technique standpoint. Let's go ahead and put our first break on the podcast rate there, come back on the other side, do thing number three and the defense and pick the game and all that fun stuff. That's next draft on podcast your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by a donation. Thing one and Thing two pressure

burst pipes and challenge them to beat you deep. Thing number three is going to be shots on goal for this Patriots offense because the one element of this Patriots offense that has clicked is when they give the football to Ramandre Stevenson. He has sixty five carries for two sixty five not crazy four point one, but it is twenty eight percent of their offensive production. But the problem is he has four fumbles this season. And Geron Mayo did say they could start Antonio Gibson, who's more of

a a pass catching back. They could start him in place of Stevenson, who has now eleven fumbles in his career. So it's a thing. But when he does tote the rock,

he is a load. He's broken seventeen tackles and has two hundred and fifteen of those two sixty five yards came after initial contact, So gearing up to stop him and probably the best way to stop him punch that football free you get one on the ground, you probably put them on the bench the rest of the game because they aren't gonna watch him do that for a second time. This is where I'm looking at Javon Holland, Jordan Brooks, Jalen Ramsey, Kendall Fuller, guys that have a

knack for fining the football. Punch that thing out, get their best player off the field for the rest of the game, and maybe you shut them out. Maybe maybe you do. Additionally, I think I barely mentioned Hunter Henry, that's a key cog in the offense outside of Stevenson stands his fumble issue. Henry is a crafty route runner who commands attention. I might throw Ramsey his way a few times. I also alluded to Kendrick Bourne. I love

his game. It'll be his first game if he plays, though off of an ACL tear last year, so we'll see how ready he is to go. And then Jalen Polk has probably been the next guy, but he's he's just kind of like, you know, back shoulder guy exclusively

almost the Patriots defense. So from a scheme standpoint, I found this quote from Gerrodmeyo back in twenty nineteen about how they coach their linebackers, and it got me thinking about, well, what this offense had been prior to its downturn recently, He says, quote, I always tell them not to get downhill until they recognize who's blocking them end quote. And that's like how you read your keys in the running game.

And I think this is a smart and very effective in theory type of concept if you've got established players that you have that have seen a lot of football, and I think that you can point to exactly that for how the Niners were able to attack the Patriots last week, which, to be perfectly frank is a system that has given the Patriots defense some fits, even going back to the end of the Golden Era in twenty nineteen.

The best player in that regard for the Patriots is down for a while, linebacker Juwan Bentley, and in his place has been familiar face ray Kwan McMillan now July Tavia is sort of a conversion player who kind of factors into the pass rush as well as playing off the football, like think about a kind of poor Man's

down to high Tower. But it's been him, and it's been Rayqua McMillan in place of Bentley, but it's still a lot of the same principles, mix of zone and man coverage, half field hybrids, utilizing the safeties in various roles, massive defensive linemen the two gap and allow them to play with light boxes. So that's what it looks like.

How do you attack it? I think with all the I candy this offense can pose and feature, with the variations of blocks from fullbacks and tight ends and f's, I think you can kind of slow their processing down a little bit and then hopefully find more of the inbreaking middle of the field passing game that has been completely absent in the last two weeks. I think once we start getting there, things could open up a little bit.

I doubt we see their three deep safety look they rolled out against us last year, but I do think you'll see a lot of shells and the invitation of the running game. Even with our third quarterback on the season in the game which leads us to the big three against the Patriots defense, and number one is Scoot Snoop gets to Scoot and Snoop. The Patriots rank thirty

first on third downs in gerond Mayo. As Wednesday, media availability said that the reason for those struggles is how they are allowing quarterbacks to scramble for first downs, and like, we're not talking about elite runners. It's been Joe Burrow, it's been Geno Smith, and it's been Aaron Rodgers. And then who was last week? Who did they played last week? I mean, it's not Lamar Jackson out there. So that's

been an issue for them. And you'll hear from Patriots dot Com reporter Evan Lazar tomorrow and he said that the pass rush has developed a bad habit of running itself out of the play. Even they're butting star off the edge in Keon White, who has four sacks, nine hits and seventeen pressures, all of those lead the team, and the seven team pressures are more than the rest of the team combined. But if rush lane integrity is an issue and you have a good running quarterback, well

there is your answer. And with the Dolphins having their own issues and maybe struggling to get the bread and butter of this offense going when it was operated by the original starter to at Tungo Bai looa, maybe this is a way to get some things going. Maybe probably not, I think even when it's third long you find a way to put them in this type of conflict, like the deep passing game to your two premiere wide receivers who are still there with game breaking speed, or the

quarterback run. So do they play man coverage? If so, then I think it's rather simple try to run past them. If you get the favorable look, take your shot. Shoot Tybriek was opened for deep shots like three times on Monday and we couldn't find him. It only takes hitting one of those to change the complexion of the game.

I tend to think you'll go more of a zone look, especially if Kyle Dugger can not play, and then from that you try to stress the second level and third level of the defense with routes that put those defenders in tight in a conflict. Allow Huntley to play from the pocket and assess before taking off on the run, provided A they cover it up and b they displayed that bad rush lane integrity. Now, both Pepper's and Dugger were dnps on Wednesday, and I believe either limited or

DNP on Thursday for the Patriots practices this week. And beyond that is Jalen Hawkins, who's a special teams gunner. And then Marte mop who did return to practice for the twenty one day opening a window opening. But if all three of those guys can't go, you're talking about practice squad call ups playing real starting snaps like Dell Pettis, I don't know what that is. Who came up when map Whu went down. It's awfully thin back there. I

think there are opportunities there with Reek and Waddle. This could be a great chance to get both of them going. Last year they both went over one hundred yards in the second game because the Patriots, and they've been invisible since Week one of this year. Thing number two going right back to that same space, middle of the field, intermediate passing game and your deep passing game. I think there, if there's a game to get this going, it's here.

The injuries they have at linebacker and safety are legit like as bad as their offensive line injuries, and we have to find a way to exploit that. You just do I mean, if we don't see it this game, we keep saying this like is it ever gonna happen? You have the bye week and the Colts after that, so maybe you get some time to get it together.

But the way it's going. I don't have faith that that happens, but I mean we saw it on the opening play, that glanced route, and again later on the ball that waddle dropped like glands and digs and seam shots. I think if you can find a way to marry that with your running game, you could get back to seeing more explosives maybe and hopefully a game of tape for Snoop to go back and look at. I can now help provide that I went over the injury situation

off the top. But I think if you get all those new pieces, getting that many parts working in unison, I think you might have some opportunities to get their head spinning a little bit with multiplicity, plenty of play pass end, a rounds misdirection, maybe even a trick player two. I think there stands a chance to be some miscommunications in a game like this, and man, one of those could be all you need to get to the winner

circle and win this game like seven to three. Maybe I don't know, And just real quick, I want to see Jalen Wright get the biggest workload of the running backs. I thought the effort on Monday from h Chan blocking down field, just running the wrong track in the running game, but the effort was what really got me, Like I would send a message there and I would play right more. And I think that his play style and his physicality can really help accentuate some of these keys here for you.

So I don't think it's gonna happen, but I want to see more Jalen Wright. My third thing I'll do this quickly is to squeeze the interior. Now I covered key on White being their best rusher, but I think you can sometimes scheme around a good edged rusher. I mean, we saw it with with Max Crosby a year go er. You know, well the Cowboys had Parsons and Lawrence, But I digress. You can scheme around one edge rusher much more than you can multiple guys. Obviously, and again, as

you'll hear it tomorrow from Evan Lazar. As good as White has been their rush land integrity has afforded plenty of quarterback run opportunities. But still inside, even without Christian Barmore, I mean, this team could be down bar More Bentley, Judon's gone dugger, and Pepper's like okay, time to get going right, but they still do have Godshaw and Dietrich wise, it's a pretty big front. You know how they play.

It's it's you know, it's two gap, head up, bear fronts, all these types of different things that can kind of you know, play guys that play bigger than they play bigger than this one person should be able to play.

And since I think their tackle pressure is the easier of the two for the quarterback to pick up and elude, I think handling their interior Patriots rush has to be the key for Huntley to play on script but also create which we've covered, you know, as a pretty significant key here for the Dolphins additional parts on this defense. I didn't mention Christian Gonzalez. He's looking the part of a premier lockdown corner for them after missing half of

his rookie season in twenty twenty three. I think Marcus Jones has some nice juice in the slot. He's a guy they will trust to run man up from that position or come on the occasional blitz. And then of course Jonathan Jones, who for some reason is like a plus cornerback in the league, but when he faces Tyreek Hill he becomes freaking Jalen Ramsey. So yeah, those are their guys. They have on defense. Let's take our last break right there, come back and do what's at stake

and the keys to victory and the predictions. That's all next Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by automation. What is at stake? And Dolphins and Patriots nothing a higher draft pick? Does it really matter if we win a thirteen to ten game or lose ten thirteen to you?

the Patriots offensive line and in the defensive backfield. That is running games up front with your pass rush, that is running multiple route concepts that stress different levels of that second and third level of defense, and try to get some bus in coverage. Those are the three keys to victory and the range of outcomes and my prediction prediction prediction prediction. I'm losing my damn mind here, guys. It's Week five and I feel like we're ore, you know,

thirteen to ten for either side? I guess like seven to three, nine to six, Like, I don't know. Can either the teams score a damn point? We scored fifteen points in the last two games. We scored twenty five points in the last three games. We average eleven points per game, So thirteen is like, whoa hey, whoa hey, budd Hey, take it easy? Huh, take it easy? Thirteeny Hey. I guess this game could determine who picks first in the draft, So I'm conflicted there. Who do I pick? Man,

I don't know. I'll go thirteen nine Patriots. Yeah, thirteen nine Patriots my TNF pick. Since we have Week five picks tomorrow, I'm taking the Falcons at home to beat the Buccaneers. We'll do the full Week five picks on the show tomorrow. We'll also have Evan Lazar and Kyle Krabs on the Friday podcast. In the meantime, you all please be sure to subscribe, rate, and review the show. Follow me on social at Wingfold NFL. Follow the team at Miami Dolphins. Check out my guys Seth and Juice

on the podcast. Check out the Dolphins YouTube channel for Dolphins HQ only this episode this week.