Drive Time: Dolphins Patriots Week 12 Preview

as we go. And here's the TLDR on what you missed too long, didn't read Brady era ends they have immediate success in twenty twenty one off of the Brady retirement or the free agent exit and mac Jones has his best year as a pro and they win ten games before getting bamboozled by the Buffalo Bills in that

wild card playoff game. Twenty twenty two sees a marginal falloff at eight to nine, and actually they just needed a Week eighteen win at Buffalo to keep us from the postseason that year with the riveting Scaler Thompson Jets game. But then twenty twenty three arrives and they have a major regression as they do some crazy stuff and bringing Matt Patricia to run the offense. Okay Jones reveals himself

to be Mac Jones. The defense loses too many key parts and they bought him out at four and thirteen, which puts them in position to draft Drake May. This year started off similarly with an opening day win that was geyzy Fugazi, but followed by a six game losing streak. They've won two of their last four, and that coincide with the switch to Drake May. Weird Jake Brisket doesn't win a lot of games this league. Who could have known that? Not the head coach here in twenty twenty one.

They held the Bears to three points in Chicago just two weeks ago and just played the Rams. Played the Rams down to the wire in Foxborough twenty eight twenty two in that game. But they're three and eight and the focus of the season now has to be well for Dolphins fans purposes. When you have a team in your division that is basement like the Jets and the Patriots.

For the rest of the way, except for the games against us I kind of want them to win those games because Travis Hunter is not going to be there with the eighth pick. He might be there with the fourth pick, you know what I'm saying. So get a couple more wins here, Patriots. But it's all about finding out what Drake may is and what he's going to be and how to build around him.

did play it last Sunday. If he plays, it'll be at a reduced capacity to what you're used to with Barmore, and he is like their best player, so that's uh. I guess I would never root for him to miss time for that, so that's not a win, but I mean on the football field, it kind of is. Christian Gonzalez is like the next best player on the roster for me. Their twenty twenty three first round pick has been ballin all year long, and they still have a

similar structure on defense. But years years of drafting just horribly. Kyle Krab sent me a graphic of Pro Bowlers selected by teams since twenty fourteen, and the Dolphins were tenth on the list, by the way, which is.

The running game, which I also find fitting since this was a team for years that lined up and played power football, only to pivot to more zone when Patricia got there, when they didn't know how to do that, and they couldn't do that, and they basically scrapped a good power running game and went zone running game under Belichick, and then now they finally have joined us in the twenty first century of offense. But the splits this year it's one hundred and forty six gap runs and ninety

five zone runs. And I tend to think it's because their personnel upfront is more suited for man blocking. And Cole Stranger was a guy they drafted to be a zone guy, but he's been pretty much hurt his entire career.

install meetings. But I don't think that May is making checks at land scrimmage. With the passing game, there's a lot more familiarity or familiar to Dolphins fans here a mix of maximum protection with five eligibles into the pattern, or rather two eligibles in the pattern, and also your reps. We have empty amount and go five into the pattern. Reduce number of true dropbacks with all the action in the running game, and how that marries to the play pass.

I guess the cliffs notes would be think Shanahan style attack with a more power running element, kind of like the Rams. Right, we just saw that a couple weeks ago. Now how to attack it? This is going to sound extremely simple, but it's the same thing as the Rams. Keep it behind the chains. If they want to reduce their true drop back situations, create true dropback situations, and you can do that by adding hats to the box

count and early downs. I think the lack of a true vertical presence here allows you to be a lot more aggressive in how you defend it. But I also felt the same way last week, and I thought the Dolphins played by far their most vanilla game plan on defense. And I wouldn't commit to that the way I would have with Brissette because Briskett doesn't have do anything well.

Drake may can get the ball down the field, he will need to develop a lot quite frankly, as he goes along in his footwork within the pocket and management of space in the pocket, because he's kind of kind of all over the place back there right now. But that's something that typically comes with time, and he's very green, and I don't think it should be a surprise that that is a work in progress for a guy that had two years of starts in college and now he's

getting his feet wet in the NFL. But he also has far more escapability and he is a true threat with his legs. He can beat you with his legs, Like I think, there are plays on tape where he works himself out of the timing and progression with his footwork, but he can then rescue that with his balance and strengthen the pocket. And once he slips through the defensive line, those big boys aren't going to catch him from the backside. But there's some really, really weird reps on his tape.

throws for a buck fifty five. So they have hit the long ball where Brissette literally never did. But they also have two picks and just a twenty five percent completion rate. So if we're turning it over, you know what, I guess that's better than ten percent of the time and we are completing it less than a quarter of

the time. Like I would challenge you to try to make your money that way because those odds favor me, and from watching the film, I don't think that's a symptom of the quarterback position, but rather a collection of their protection and a true dearth of skill at the receiver position. I mean, that's what we used to be, dude. Like, you know, I loved Isaiah Ford, but when he was running forty routes a game like that was probably an issue.

Devonte Parker was the same thing. Saands that one year he had in twenty nineteen, right or Preston Williams, whatever, just Albert Wilson. I remember when people thought that Lynn Bowden was like gonna be some crazy hit. That's kind of what the Patriots have right here. But I also think, you know, I go back. I keep going back to this Week three game against the Jets that I watched

on tape. I know it was Brissette, but they just loaded up with a hat in every gap and probably even got a little bit gratuitous in how they fit the run. And by that I mean just flooding it

with wave after wave after wave. But I also think the way the offense is going and they're inexperienced here, Like we saw it against the Raiders, one of our the most vanilla planning of the year defensively, and the Raiders just took the easy stuff and we tackled like crap on the perimeter and it gave him a chance to stay in the game. But I tend to think the way the Patriots can stay in this game is if we make mistakes and they strike a big play.

So that's a you know, a call that I will leave to the pro to the expert and co Weaver he'll have the right decision. I don't think he'll replicate the Raiders game, but I think he'll He'll make the right choice because he's a very, very good coach. The Big Three versus the Patriots offense Number one flood Drake May's launch point put bodies at his feet. He is willing to play with anticipation, and he has the velocity to rip tight window throws. He is a member of

the TNA club. You know, that's boots, hoots and boots. But I think you can trace the off target throws and sometimes out of rhythm nature of the offense to the feet not matching up with the rhythm of the progression. We talked about this with friggin Boile, friggin friggin friggin Huntly, friggin Skuyler, like they were never in rhythm with the the way the timing of the routes works, and it's all with their feet. And this dude's got horrible, horrible feet.

He will naturally change his launch point when it's not necessary. And I think that we can play eyes on the quarterback and zone and maybe baits and bad throws out of him, but then also play some man coverage and dominate these lesser wide receivers because they are by far the worst crop in the entire National Football League. A good mix might give up some running lanes and your man coverage reps, but you have to have a little

bit of it. The Dolphins are like a seventy two to like twenty what would that be, twenty eight percent zone or in favor of zone seventy two percent of the time.

And when I think when he comes back in twenty twenty five, I think he'll have tightened it up, which I kind of worries me.

off weird. He's just incredibly sloppy with his mechanics at the top of his drop, and that's a very bad pairing for a bad offensive line. So if you want to look at why this offense struggles, his weaknesses do not jive well with one of the worst old lines in the NFL, and they also have one of the worst skill groups in the NFL.

guys like by a lot. He's just a very green because it sometimes turns him into a runner when he breaks that contain, and he's really dangerous from there as a thrower on the move again, freaky physical skills, boots and toots baby, and he can overcome some of those rookie growing pains stuff with his ability to just playmake. He's not like to a playmaking right now, but he's a big playmaker, huge arm, and he absolutely believes in it. And like again on his tape, there's some late reads,

but they aren't always negative plays for the offense. Sometimes his big arm allows him to be late and still jam some of those tight window throws. And again I came away from his tape saying, I think this is another problem we're gonna have to contend with.

their offensive line relentlessly, because here's the lineup. Verderian Lowe was a career practice squad guy before this year. Left Guard's Michael Jordan. He's bounced around the entire league so far. At this point, Ben Brown wasn't aware of who he was. He was a UDFA for the Patriots. Last year, Demntrey Jacobs same situation UDFA didn't make a team, came to the Patriots, and then Mike Onwenu was one of the top like one hundred freegents available this offseason from the Patriots.

They brought him back. But he's a guard and he's playing right tackle, so it ain't good. We've established we want bodies in the lap of Drake May when he's the top of his drop.

Miami game. But he's their third different starting center of this year with a rookie quarterback, so getting their protection calls against a Anthony Weaver pass rush like we saw Jackson powers Johnson get his butt kicked by freaking Benito Jones on Sunday, and I think that that's going to be the similar situation here now Benito particularly, but the rookie center or the second year center of the rookie quarterback,

I think that's going to be a problem. I do think that the advantage he has is probably lots of reps with May back in August, but his PBE is ninety six point eight.

he has struggled with speed rushers. Ninety seven is his PBE. But I think that Chop speed can present a real issue for Mike on one zero off the edge. So it's been a struggle and while I think Chop is starting to develop as Miami's ace pass rusher off the edge, and there's not a lot of juice after that. But I think the Dolphins have enough with him paired with the two interior guys, who of course are no strangers to playing end. I just can't wait till we get

chubbed back. Man. Get him back by that Houston game, and let's get two really good edge rushers going with Steeler and Campbell.

perimeter players. If you want to go one on one on the perimeter. I'm totally cool with it, even with the absence of Kendall Fuller, because Mike McDaniel said he's

probably not gonna play the game on Sunday. Watching tape from some teams that have played the Patriots with similar defense backgrounds as US Mike McDonald and Seattle, Denard Wilson and Tennessee both off that Baltimore Tree, I noticed a little more frequency of seven more men in the box, because well, this receiving core is just not probably gonna

hurt you. And this is where I again struggle with how to approach it, because in those games against those teams, the Patriots run rate success against lighter boxes was forty six not great, but it's pretty good. But against heavy

boxes it was twenty eight percent success rates. So if I can run that and take the risk of the vertical passing game beating me maybe once or twice, I feel like I can dictate the majority of their drives, and then if they try their deep shot and they miss it, the drive is completely over because now we're talking about like third and thirteen, and they kind of convert those with their current makeup on offense and how

to do that. We've seen Javon Holland insert in the run fit and pass rush against a little bit more since his return to the lineup, and he came as that true rusher on that rep against the Rams for the sack, So he's kind of a key I look at in this regard. The Dolphins haven't played, or they have played rather plenty of split safety.

to beat you deep. They just haven't done it a lot, but it's not impossible, though probably improbable.

Kendrick Bourne is back, he missed the Week five game, but I think, like, you know, a River Craycraft skill set with him for a play style like probably not going to burn Ramsey on that, right, And then I wonder what the plan could be for Henry, where I think he's their best option. He's usually the target that has the most comfort level with May for those anticipation rips. I think there's a certain level of trust there, and I'm inclined to say that Ramsey goes and shadows Henry.

But you know, McDaniel said that he's pessimistic about four's return.

after a rough game last week. And then for JB Jordan Brooks and Anthony Walker, who I thought were awesome in LA but had a rough game against Vegas. I think that all those guys in the middle can help funnel the Patriots game to the outside, and all those guys can tackle better and make for a better showing against the Patriots and you had against the Raiders. I didn't mention the running backs, but they've probably been the

most consistent group of the entire offense. Steven sim was benched in the game against US after fumbling in each of his first four games. He hasn't fumbled or hadn't fumbled in the next five games, but he did lose one against the Rams last week. But his averages are three point six, three point seven to one point six and two point four. And then Gibson gets like five

touches a game. They reduced him to a like third down back basically, so tackle Stevenson, bring your lunch pill, load up, and get your technique good to go.

downhill until they recognize who's blocking them. And I think this is a smart and very effective in theory if you've got established players that have seen a lot of football, and I think you can point to that exactly for how the Niners were able to attack the Patriots way back in that Week four game. In offense like ours, which to be perfectly frank, is a system that has given the Patriots defense some fits going back to the

end of their golden era, like in twenty nineteen. The best player in that regard for the Patriots has been down for a while, Juwan Bentley, and he's not coming back in this game either. Julyn Tavai is sort of a conversion player who factors into the rush plan but also plays off the football. I kind of think about Dante hi Tower back in the day, but a poor man's version of that. And then Raykwan Millen has been replaced by Sion Takitaki, who is filling in for Bentley.

So it's thin there and I think you can attack those guys like we did back in Week five and ran the ball down their throats. But it is still a lot of the same principles. A good mix of zone man coverage, half field highbridge utilizing safeties and various roles. Three deep safety coverage looks massive defensive linemen that two gap and allow them to play with light boxes, like if they had their way, they would have a defensive

line full of Lawrence guys and Devon godshaws. How do you attack it with all the eye candy this offense can pose with the variations of blocks from fullbacks, tight ends and f's.

yards of Tyreek Hill behind us. I actually think the way the Dolphins are playing offensively right now is the best equipped they've been to attack of Patriots offense or defense rather in the entire McDaniel era. And I think you could extrapolate that twenty twenty three Week two game where I thought Tua executing the game plan beautifully against their almost exclusive three high look like he's doing that every week now.

not going to survive, but you can give up ground, you know, yards in the ground game and survive. And the Patriots were kind of one of the first adopters of that style under a Bill Belichick his soil, which is something you know, I think we could stand to see some more of compared to the last two weeks and get this run game going because I want to see the I want to see the run game we had against the Patriots and Colts with the passing game we saw against the Bills and the Raiders, like that

would be dope. That's a team that wouldn't lose any games no matter how the defense plays. Quite frankly, let's go ahead and pivot this over to the Big three against the Patriots defense number one. Going back to the well, this offense has been so dang good at taking what the defense gives them, and it's so much more nuanced than what the discription probably tells you on the surface.

You'll see me talk about this in a brand new Dolphins HQ tonight on the mail bag portion where I was asked about Wattle's decline in production, and I've talked about it on the show and posted on Blue Sky and YadA YadA yah, and I don't think it's anything Wattle is doing differently. And I showed the play where third and like eight on the opening drive last week, where we hit a chan for seventeen yards and Wattle's open on the dig, but not like wide open naked

like Devon was. Devon was more naked than Mike Tyson in the locker room on that play. And I think about that defensive pass interference on Wattle, like that is the most important play of the game, and we schemed it up for Wattle to get a one on one rep like he's a go to guy, right, He's like that, and he won the route so definitively the defensive back had to bear hug him. Flag is out two plays there,

John who closes the game out big bang bunk. But the way we've been playing is how the Patriots structure operates. It has for years, and we heard two on Wednesday say the structure isn't all that different from what they were under Bill Belichick, which of course tracks because Gerard Mayo has literally only played for Belichick and coached under

him until he got the job for himself. And I think we saw that play out with the game script against the Rams last week, where the Rams had two punts after five and four play drives, then they went touchdown, touchdown, field goal, touchdown, touchdown. They were able to get the run game going, and then Stafford found success in the short areas and they got their explosive to Cooper Cup in the third quarter on a sixty nine nice yard

touchdown reception. I think the Dolphins are going to are getting close to teams over correcting their game plans, and tomorrow I'll talk to Kyle Krabs about that and what that next step might look like, because it's not a winning formula to give us six or seven possessions a game and we're scoring on like five or six of them. It forces you to be perfect on offense and you

cannot rely on that. So I suspect we'll get more of the nickel and dime approach early, and then like the last four weeks, some explosives open up as they get more aggressive defensively. So I think John neu is very much back in play, especially with how they want to rush their backers and get to the box cat with Tavai or Taki Taki coming up, So will the

defensive backs down there as well. I think it's a game where a chan could get a heavy workload in the passing game in addition to his run game stuff because of that same reason, and then just because we saw him have his best game against them, Jalen Wright and those outside zone runs against the Patriots off a defensive line that has more stake than sizzle with gap control, stretch them wide, get them playing Laterally, those big guys do not want to run. Let's go ahead and take

our last break right there. We'll come back and talk about the aggressiveness that can possibly lure them into our second key against the Patriots defense. That's next Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation. The first key for the Dolphins offense is just going back to the well. Baby, if there's water there, go

collect that water and quench your thirst. Number two is to re establish your ground game, because you know alec Ingolds at a media availability this week, to his availability would probably be another game time decision did not go against the Raiders. And again, just me speaking here, I hope when you can back it's at full strength because we need this guy to see this offense become the flexible version of the in the balanced version of itself to make this storybook run that I believe we can and

could see play out here. But the Patriots defense has always been willing to take it on the chin of the running game because the numbers say the passing game is the quickest way to lose a game, right, But this is a front that has traded its best pass rusher, taken on plenty of injuries, and just hasn't been super impactful. Stafford was hit four times and no sacks in the game last week. I think they got to that because

of their early commitment to the running game. You know, the change of the game for the Patriots, especially if you can hold them out of the end zone on their first couple of drives and get them behind the scoreboard, and that leads into our third point, which I know point number two was brief there. Number three is to add the spice, Baby, the spice Belange South Park Fans Brady episode.

ratio to kick this game off. And while that yielded nothing by way of points, one of those early throws was for thirty five yards, and then they went for twenty five, seven, ten, twelve, and then a five yard touchdown on that drive, then a twelve yard touchdown on the first play of the next drive, and would later get passes or touchdown passes rather of sixty nine, nice and nineteen yards. The Rams ability to run the football, to utilize play pass, and protect Stafford helped them exploit

all of this. Now they do have Kyle dugger back. He was not part of the game against us last time around, and they just be wary of him because when you throw screens, he will jump that and pick it off and go to the direction. He will come up and tackle on the premier of the Running game. This guy is an absolute stud. They'll have Christian Gazalez and they're also working in some new parts like Dell Pettis, Jalen Hawkins, Marcus Jones is getting more run on the

defensive backfield as well. The Rams playmakers out class these dudes, no problem. We should be able to do the exact same thing they do. Get Anthrony Jennings back after he missed the Week five game, but their pass rush just has no juice. Brother, So I think about the ability to get to the shot plays off your play action game. Some of those max protect and two man route combos that we've seen from TUA really excel with those. I think you can get Waddle and Reek involved that way too.

Some early execution I think could open some things up down the road in the Running Game. Additional parts for the defense I mentioned Barmore, you'll hear Taylor or you did hear Taler. Rather talk about him on Wednesday, just not being full go yet. That's a lurking giant because he's a great player. Keon White commands a lot of attention, but Austin Jackson had a great game against him in

week five. It's a big test for Kendall Lamb. I hope he can hold up against him, and then I'm just curious to see how we handle their size inside. You know, I mentioned bar Moore. Godshaw is the exact same player he was down here. Not flashy, but reliable, and their ends are in that two hundred and eighty three hundred pound range.

and look ahead. But I mean you could check off the cold weather narrative, the road narrative, the primetime game narrative, against a winning football team to get back to six and six. Let's not blow that opportunity that you can set up for yourself the win in this game against a bad football team. As for the standings implications, I'm going to take a look at this on the pod

in a week or two. But I you know, I've been firing up the ESPN playoff machine again, and the way I have it going, I think it'll come down to us the Broncos and the Colts. And the crappy part about that is, like you know, from a neutral observer perspective for sure, is like the Dolphins are like a ten times better football team than either of those two teams, and you might have not have earned your spot in the playoff because of that. Because this is

not the college FOOTBA playoff rankings. You don't get in there based on like how we think you can play in January. The games actually count in the regular season. But those teams are just mediocre to a tee, and we dug that hole. We have some cupcips, they have some cupkips coming up, so it'll be tough to get over the hump. But because they're mediocre, I do think both the Broncos and Colts will drop some of those games, and the Colts play the Lions this week, the Broncos

the Raiders. We know Indy's not going to win that game, but the Broncos they could lose to Vegas.

tiebreaker over the Broncos. We do that, and we don't have it over the Colts, So when they match up in three weeks, depending on the records, you might root for Denver in that one range of outcomes.

the offense is going. So I could see a game where maybe we struggle a little bit in the red zone. It's another one of those eight possession games. They make a player two and it's close late, but we close it out like twenty three to twenty. But I could also see us just continuing to fire on all cylinders

and get like a thirty three to thirteen blowout. So I'll do what I usually do and split the difference twenty eight to seventeen Dolphins with a late score to pull away in the fourth quarter like last week, he's to victory. Disrupt the Patriots passing game with your interior pressure. You have to get bodies on the floor.

at Miami Dolphins. Check out my guys, Seth and Juice on the fish Tank podcast. Check out the YouTube channel for media availabilities, game recaps and Dolphins HQ brand new episode tonight, and last button not least Miami Dolphins dot Com until next time. Fins up Caroline and Cameron, Daddy's coming Home.