Drive Time: Dolphins Jets Week 18 Preview

Hopefully we have one more of these next week. Will preve you the biggest game of the season against the New York Jets, tell you the difference and what to expect depending on which quarterback plays, the big matchups, the keys to victory, and much much more, including plenty of Jets hate from the Baptist heillth Studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex.

And I'm Joey Jets and it's gonna be awesome. And they're four and twelve, and they're four and twelve and the Dolphins will go up there and try to make it four and thirteen from Metli Stadium, Week number eighteen to four to twenty five kickoff on Fox. It's supposed to be thirty four degrees at kickoff into the twenties at nightfall, thirteen mile prior wins, but gust up to

twenty five miles prior no precipitation. And just to you know, I'm I'm kind of ready for off season mode, recording this podcast before all the playoff games kickoff today here on Wednesday. Happy New Year everybody out there in Dolphins Land. And like watching Penn State last night and seeing Tyler Warren do his thing, Like what a fun first round pick he would be. We're gonna get a look at you know, Tesz Johnson today in this game, and for the the Organ wide receiver. We're gonna get a look

at Xavier watch the Notre Dame safety. We're gonna get a look at Malachi Starks, the Georgia's safety. We're gonna get a look at Josh Connery, the Oregon tackle. Like there is gonna be a lot of fun scouting to watch, and part of me is like already into that world. And just saying like, let's go ahead and get to twenty twenty five, because I think this team with a soft reboot, hopefully with better health. Even though we say that every single year and it has to they have

to find a way to address that. I feel like twenty twenty five, especially off the heels of yesterday's podcast where I very optimistically painted a picture of how this team could be thirteen and three. I again, I know that's not a realistic situation because you could point to the Jets game as a game they should have lost. If Vante Adams does not go out of bounds before that fourth quarter field goal at the end, the Dolphins

lose that game. So I understand that perspective. But I just think that next year, with the schedule the way it plays out, like, I think Miami's gonna be in a good spot next year, even if they get into the playoffs with the win here today.

and they find ways to win those games. With four interceptions in those games and missfield goals from the opposition in those games, it just feels so fitting that your playoff hopes are going to likely come down to I don't even know how to say.

I'm just kind of experiencing a bit of an existential crisis on what's going to happen on Sundays. I think mine's going to take care of business, as we'll predict here in a second, and I don't think they'll get the help they need.

In fact, somebody on a social media platform, I think it was Instagram, had commented on how or T Higgins like posted? Rather sauce Gardner posted a T Higgins graphic and said pay that man, and somebody responded to him and said tell him to come to the Jets, and Sauce replied and said, I will not be doing that. So things are peachy for the New York Jets. Do they play DJ Reid after saying he basically wants out after this last game.

history of the league. But he produced a bunch of seven and eight win teams playing one of the lowest EPA passing marks in the NFL every single year when he started. They get their elite quarterback back and it crashes and burns in ways they could not have imagined.

as last week. There was a third down play where Rogers threw the ball at the feet of Tyler Conklin and then did that quarterback thing where you put your palm out in your motion, like you know, cut this way, and it's like, even if he was in the wrong spot, like having those issues persist in Week seventeen is emblematic of the bigger issue. They have a lot of options and the aforementioned side adjustments. I just don't think that

ever clicked, especially with the play caller change. But in honesty, it's always been Aaron Rodgers pulling the strings. So you get a lot of routes back to the quarterback, you know, stationary, stagnant routes. I think a lot of the belief is that Aaron will see it and play on time, and then if it's not there, there's just not a lot of ability to create because well, they have to keep him healthy. He's off an Achilles injury, he's forty years old.

But also just the design of the offense now that was highly effective against US back in Week fourteen, right his best game of the season. I tend to think the Dolphins defense will have a bit of a bone to pick with that, especially Coach Weaver wanting to revert the results of that day in terms of the Jets offensive success, and I really feel confident they'll find a way to do that By structure, it's seventy percent eleven personnel,

twenty percent twelve personnel. They do some thirteen, some twenty one, but it's a pretty common NFL deployment. They've been substantially better versus zone than man coverage, and I think that goes back to the side adjustment comments we talked about, where it's easier to spot throw than it is to throw guys open when you're playing against own coverage, especially with or rather, I should say, that kind of flies in the face of the skills toucher receivers have and

all those back shoulder balls. But it's just a mess. To be perfectly frank with you, guys, how do you attack it? The first key is going to be a stop their early down running game, and frankly, that's what most teams have done against them. And they'll mix it up with gap and zone and different variations of zone, but man, they just struggle with to the point of attack, particularly off the edge. They got a couple of backup

tackles playing right now. I think you can accomplish this by playing a lot of bass but also getting your dogs Sealer and Campbell on the edge. They've done that so many times this year, playing five techniques and defensive end positions.

line is very good. But if you can create trouble in the communication and use your speed off the edge, I think you can get some double clutches and then once you collapse the pocket.

Lots of the outside zone stresses. You're conditioning your ability to set edges off the corners and then unfurl the passing game from there with misdirection, play action boot legs all that stuff, but they have struggled with that for a handful of reasons. First, they'll have Breeze Hall back in this game after he didn't play in Week fourteen. But there's not many players that I think are substantially worse than their perception, and maybe this is not the

case for Jets fans than Breeze Hall. Like he's slow, he doesn't really create that much, and they just can't run the ball off the edge. I think it's because they don't have enough speed at running back and their why position is an absolute tire fire there. I mentioned

this on the podcast back in week fourteen. Joe Blewett, who I used to do podcasts with before I even got any popularity on social media, does film breakdowns, and he had a breakdown about I forget the tight end's name, but there was multiple tight ends that consistently just lose their leverage in the blocking game and they can't run the ball off the edge. What's cut down the entire

origin of this Rogers led offense. And then you have an offensive line that I think has play better than they have in the past, but with injuries off the corner and those aforementioned issues that they haven't had a chance to really settle and gel in together, aside from the interior three who've played most of the year together. But it's just so important upfront to have that continuity, and I think I might say it's as important, maybe

more important than the collection of individual talent. They've had to rotate guys through. You know, starting lineup on Sunday and Buffalo was Max Mitchell, John Simpson, Joe Tipman, Elijah Vera Tucker and Morgan Moses. The final part of the run game struggle is the consequence of having again a

forty one year old quarterback off major surgery. That's he's just not going to move around a lot back there, and the ability to bootleg off those outside zones and your need to contain backside it's just not as as

strong as it used to be against this quarterback. So when I look at the Fins, I think about getting Seeler and Campbell on the edge to beat up their why and left tackle right tackle combination put pressure on Rogers' backside, and then the speed of Chop off their right tackle Morgan Moses, who is a good player, but chop is his strength is Morgan Mogus's weakness is the speed and the ability to.

I mean, I know their offense has been up and down and struggled, but you can pull up individual reps and see, oh yeah, there's the thinking there. Those are really good receivers at in flight adjustments. Garrett Wilson's a very good release package and knows how to cross face and put guys in the blind spot in the blender, so to speak. And Rogers has no problems throwing those guys open. They both went off in that game back in Week fourteen, but their best play has been the go,

the comeback and the back shoulder conversion. Option, which is all the same route that you can change on the fly, but you can, you know, you play them without safety help and they'll take advantage of that. We saw it back in the in the Week fourteen game. They will go after that matchup usually the boundary and they'll show the article and then once the cornerback gets out of phase, Rogers is gonna rip that thing right to the back shoulder.

So it's imperative for Ramsey to play physically up the stem and try to disrupt that for Storm to get in position to be able to make plays. I imagine you'll get some help for Storm Duck. And then the interior with cater co who who kind of I thought had his worst game communication wise against the Jets.

remain physical without getting grabby down the stem. You cannot give these guys free access. They have struggle with timing all year long. Don't let them find it by playing passive and letting them dictate the terms offensively. If you do that with what I discussed in these earlier points, I think you free up my ability to create some splash plays, to get some takeaways, give that offense some

short fields, and take control of this game. Now what you definitely need because the cornerbacks have done their job for the most part this year, but you need better

safety play. It's been bad all year, like the whole season has been bad, and they're gonna have to find a way to better communicate on the back end against the Jets, because that's where the communication or the breakdowns happened through communication in that game, and that was you know, Javon was I think nursing an injury at that point, and Jordan Poyer was going through something and they weren't practicing together, and they had different cornerbacks, and Kendall Fuller

was up and then was down them back up, and yeah, I just think that you have to have much much better safety play than what Miami has gotten to stop an offense that has receivers like these two guys. Let's go ahead and take our first break rate there, come back and do the third key against the Jets offense. We'll do all the keys against the Dolphins or the Jets defense. Rather, we'll pick the game all that stuff. Draft Time Podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you

by Auto Nation. Two keys against the Jets offense. In the books, the third key is a key against any quarterback you'll ever face, especially a forty one year old old man.

backs this up for me. When you hit Rogers and make him feel you early, the ball starts coming out faster and faster, and I just don't think he wants to get punishment in an NFL game anymore, especially for a four and twelve team. Granted the ability to get the ball out hot as a strength of his versus the blitz. He has a two point twenty nine second time to throw not blitzed, it's two point seven to eight.

And if you look around the league and here are the top original starters in terms of top time to throw, it's tu It's Mayfield, it's Jayden Daniels, It's Joe Burrow, four of the best processors in the entire league. Aaron Rodgers is in that category for the most part as well.

But what made Rogers was that elite processing skill, right, but also being one of the great play extenders in the history of the league and one of the guys that can burn you out of the pocket more than anybody else ever has.

In fact, maybe they pull him out after he gets one touchdown pass if he does, but hey, let's not let him do that, because that would be hilarious. And I think that he's gonna, you know, he wants to play in twenty twenty five, he says, probably not for the Jets. I don't think whatdy Johnson wants him back, So I don't think that he'll be all that excited, especially because that touchdown pass out of the way early.

To stand in there and take punishment for sixty minutes, I think this means another week of and Dotson walking up frequently, plenty of sim pressures and fire zones where they just constantly bring an extra player, but mixing it up enough to hopefully bait Rodgers into the wrong decision. He's thrown picks on those little fire zone peel back hook drops from like Benito Jones, from Zach Seeler. He'll throw those into those guys if you do it enough.

But here is where I take another step. Without Fashanu, they're down to ot three and four. I think Morgan Moses is a good player, but as we mentioned, speed is his kryptonite. That's chops calling card. And then with Max Mitchell, you know he struggled last year as a rookie and he has a ninety six point one pass block efficiency score this year, which is below the threshold

we talk about all the time on the show. Here, I think if you look at your rush matchup, you're probably not going to confuse them or just consistently beat them inside because of that continuity with Simpson, Tipman and Avt inside and it's very good, a very good combination, but without the fleet of foot ability you need to

beat perimeter pressure. I think you can get after the quarterback with your natural edges, but also blitzer from the linebackers from Holland and and Ramsey, and then also just the way that lends itself to playing good run defense as well.

back sweeps against the Jets and Patriots. The last time the Dolphins did that was when Don Shula hoisted back to back Lombardi Trophies in seventy two and seventy three, four consecutive wins over the Jets and Patriots inside of two seasons. This could be the first time you've done that since the seventies, and you have to do it by beating a Jets defense that is not very good anymore either. Even with the coaching changes, the principles are the same. They want to play one gap penetration play

on the other side of the line of scrimmage. But it doesn't really work anymore because they sent all their good pass rushers out of town. They have athletic, physical linebackers. We talked about Jamie and Sherwood last time, a top free agent target of mine this offseason if he hits that market. They want to dictate the terms outside and does a lot of They do a lot of that with press Cover one with those lengthy good man corners that I don't think are playing like that right now.

last several years. If if to a players in the game now, they do have a good mix of zone when it's an even blend of three in quarters, which is you know, Cover three or Cover four, which is all that means is Cover three is each deep defender has a deep third in terms of the coverage shell. When it's quarters, they all have a deep fourth, but you can run through quarters more easily.

structure shells. And they're also one of ten teams that's double digits and Cover six, So they try to confuse you by making the stuff by making different coverages look the exact same. I would expect it to look like it has the past few years. Zone early downs, you know, man on third and on media, third and well, it's hard to say.

He absolutely eight in that part of the field. Do blitz at a twenty five percent clip, But I think that will drastically decrease if it's Tua, but I could see him trying it out more if it is Snoop. I think you see more zone versus or you see more man rather more zone versus Snoop than you would against Tua. How do you attack this defense? I think we kind of told you there, but I'll go ahead and just confirm it. Further, run the ball, get it on the edge further cornerbacks to play both the man

and the football on the edge. Force him to do that, I should say, stretch that front that wants to play Downhill out to the perimeter. But also it changes if they don't have Sauce or even dj Reeve for that matter. And then, of course, with your own uncertainty of quarterback, Week eighteam kind of sucks, huh, Like you never know what's gonna happen, Like I can't. Picking the games this week is gonna be hard to because who the hell's

playing like? It's tough. It's always a fun matchup. I think it certainly changes drastically depending on who we start. The Big Three versus the Jets defense, run the ball wide. That never changes, going back to the first matchup in October of twenty twenty two, since McDaniel got here against Robert Sala. That will change next year because it won't

be the same defense, but you get it. You'll recall that as the game where Teddy was removed after getting sacked and tagged with intentional grounding on a play that was not intentional grounding, and we were in scoring range, down by a point in the fourth quarter with Scalar Thompson in the game, but we dropped a Tanner Conor pass and then missed a field goal and the game got totally off the rails. We did go for over one hundred and fifty yards on the ground in that game.

Prior to the game this year, we were averaging one hundred and thirty seven yards on the ground in the four meetings against these guys and two of those games where the backup quarterbacks could be a third here two was only played five games against the Jets. That kind of crazy, like that's kind of an indictment of his injury history. But you know, something else to talk about for different day. We only had forty four on the ground in the game back in week fourteen, But the

fact remains the same. You set up your entire offense with that initial outside zone concept right Hell, in the Browns game, we go outside zone, wide screen, outside zone to start the game, and you saw it influence the Browns linebackers on first downs for literally the next four or five drives of that game. Tyreek got single coverage and caught all nine of his targets because of that space, because of how they opted to defend us and defend

Snoop Huntley. It's a stylistic you hear sometimes from analyst. You know, Team AS actually a good matchup for Team B, even if Team AS the superior team. It's because of things like this. Their scheme plays one gap upfield. They stress your gaps and our ability to get the ball around the corner. It just bodes well when we can pin them in on those on those immediate penetration attempts.

It doesn't hurt again that they have two cornerbacks who I think, in this game more than any game of their career, will have no interest in making tackles off the edge, and safeties who don't really come from depth all that well, I think you could see I wrote this for a week fourteen. I think you could see a lot of business decisions getting made up there for the New York Jets on Sunday. And it's not just the Dolphins. The Jets' two highest rushing totals allowed this year.

They've allowed more than one fifty on the ground twice this year was the Niners on Opening Night for one eighty and the Texans for a buck eighty seven back on Halloween. Any idea who those play cars are? Kyle Shanahan and Bobby Slowick. Now, this is a good test of where I feel like we are sorely lacking and where the run game has kind of gone away this year. You know, Austin jaff was a big difference maker right tackle.

We haven't really had a true why that was a plus blocker aside from some Julian Hill glimpses here and there. So I think there's something to be said about getting that production without having that Still near the top of my offseason shopping list. By the way, and watching Tyler Warren makes me think that we should pick him, but

I digress. I think runs off the left side, whether it's Paul or Testead, those Aaron Brewer poles into space, Julian Hill on those rap blocks, and our wideouts in the blocking game, I think we go four deep at running back to hit those runs, to get our yards and influence the defense. And I think we saw last week Devon a Chan kind of got his role decrease

in the second and third quarter of that game. I think that you're starting to kind of get some internal scouting about lack of vision and the fact that he's leaving yards on the field by not banging it in there and as opposed to trying to hit home runs every single rep. I think you might see more of that on Sunday, a deeper rotation with more raheem Moster and please give twenty five to the ball. I want to see Dylan Wright touch the football. He's a very

special player. It's no coincidence to me that are one hundred and ninety three season leading rushing day came on a day where a Chan got knocked out in the first drive of the game and right played his biggest role. And then our second biggest rushing day was the following game when Jalen Wright had his second biggest rushing role against the Indianapolis Colts.

he can run for a big explosive plays. Then if it's Tua, more of the same baby. If they want to play off and he has no issues going after that space, then do it. But if they creep up, it sounds like, you know, we should be getting waddled back for this game. You know, we saw in twenty twenty three. How both he and Riek got vertical on this team multiple times. So take what they present tail

as old as time right attrition. Unlike any other typically speaking, they want to disrupt and challenge you with their cornerbacks. With Sauce if he plays, I don't think he will. But even if it's Brandon Eckles, they like playing the same style of football when he's out there too, So those things you know, Sauce probably out at the hamstring even if he plays with it. I mean, I cannot think of a worse injury to play when you have

to face Tyreek Hill than a hamstring injury. But it's their play style, so I think they will do that. You remember the Black Friday game, like those two third and shorts to start the game and one starts the second half, and then of course Wattle in the second half or the second game against the Jets sixty yards over DJ Reid, Like, if they.

with us. If it's third and four, they'll tilt. They'll tilt help to one side, so you can throw that X fade or the slot fade against one on one coverage. So I think you'll see that a few times and hopefully we can hit one or two of those to top all this off. I think this is a game where they have to focus on our backs and tight ends to trust and trust their cornerbacks to beat us. Regardless of who it is. Both safeties are more box players. Mills a converted cornerback who loves to play the slot

and head hunt as the robber. And then Chuck Clark was kind of an enforcer for a few weeks that he was healthy, but he's back on ir and Ashton Davis doesn't really seem to know where he's going in coverage. So that's a guy to go after in this game as well. Let's go ahead and take our last break right there. Come back on the other side do key three, we'll do the key to the game in general, we'll pick the game and get the heck out of here.

Draft Time Podcast your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation. The third key for the Dolphins offense against the Jets defense be it to be it Snoop Huntley is just Quinn Williams, Hassan Reddick, and Will McDonald. Their rush used to be comprised of a super deep rotation. It would filter guys in, keep them fresh, and just kept coming wave after wave until they broke you down

late in games. See the twenty twenty two game. Hassan Reddick was their big ticket free agent and they swapped him out for Bryce Huff, but Reddick held out half the year and then their owner or was it their coach, Their owner said he's one of the least selfish players he's ever been around. That's an interesting dichotomy. But he hasn't done anything this year. Quentin Jefferson and John Frankly Meyers are both gone, but they still have impact players.

It's just not as deep as it once was. In fact, Will McDonald is a good player, but he got blanked in the last game by was a tea Saer. Patrick Paul can't remember this point, but he rushes almost exclusively off the offense has left. I think it's a matchup that Pat Paul can win, quite frankly. I mean, he did not a great job on Miles Garrett, but he

had some good reps. And then I think that allows you to help inside with chips and doubles on Quinn Williams because after a slow start, he has kind of come on, although he's kind of fallen back off again. We'll see what you get on from him on Sunday.

to have an answer for guys like this. Right Luckily, I think Brewer has stabilized things and he can essentially pick out which side Q goes to and help on that side or whichever guard that he rushes over, and then on runs with wham action where you can basically invite him upfield and take him out of the play by just having him outrun it or you know, split flow all the stuff where you get wide and leave

upfield penetrators unaccounted for. I think you can scheme him out of some of the stuff that you do that way, as the Dolphins have kind of done in these Jets matchups. So big day for our two best upfront going up against their two best. Whether it's whether you know it's Tea Stead, I guess he's part of the best. But whether it's Pat or Teestead or Brewer against Quinn Williams, like that's that's.

you're not in the playoffs range of outcomes. Even without Tua, I don't think there's a scenario where Miami loses this game. This is a team that's on Cabo mode with Tua. I think it's thirty one to fourteen without Tua. I think it is probably like it was last week, a little bit closer to the vest. They probably can score once or twice. That makes it a bit of a nail bier down the stretch, But I think they can find a way to grind out a victory. Seventeen to fourteen.

If it is snoop in this game. Keys to victory. Get playmakers on the perimeter. Go after those cornerbacks that are not interested in playing, whether it's your running backs, your receivers, or tight ends. Get the ball on the perimeter. Number two put pressure constantly on Aaron Rodgers. Make the old man quit the game like he has multiple times this year. And Number three slowed down Garrett Wilson and Devonte Adams. They ate your lunch last time. Hey, don't

let that happen again. Let's go ahead and get the heck out of here. You all, please be sure dribe to the show, leave us a rating, and leave us a review. Follow me on social at Wingfield NFL. The team at Miami Dolphins check out the Fish Tank Podcast with my guys, Sethan Juice, the YouTube channel for a brand new episode of Dolphins HQ, extra media availabilities, and much much more up there as well, and last but

not least, Miami Dolphins dot com. Until next time, fins Up, Come on, Cameron, Daddy just come home.