Drive Time: Dolphins Jets Week 14 Preview

I think if I had to adjust my Super Bowl pick right now, I'd probably go Lions and Bills. Pretty chalky. I think I would take the Lions to win that game. So we'll see they're gonna play. Those two teams are gonna play here in a couple of weeks. But I'm taking the Lions over the Packers. But man, how good is the NFC North with Green Bay, Detroit, and Minnesota all at nine or more wins?

that one and three stretch. And yeah, Oose, if you were healthy, I think we go four to ozer during that stretch. And I think you're eight and four and you are feeling very good about this football team as it is right now.

amount of intro four. I feel like we all we did was talk Jets all off season, and now here we are for our first game against Aaron Rodgers in nearly two years that he's been with the team, and it comes off the heels of a season where he played just four snaps. Do you think the Jets this year will get more wins than snaps played last year

by Rogers? They went seven to ten last year and now they're out to a three and nine start this season, and this is the kind of year that causes them to the Jets killed Carl and the way this year is gone there probably killing a lot more people too, because they are terrible, and you know the story before, you know, Rogers got there before even Zach Wilson. They

bottomed out in twenty twenty. They won a couple of games down the stretch that year, in a game that they should have just given to the Rams, and they could have gotten Trevor Lawrence, who maybe Lawrence's career gets off to a different start than it has so far if he's in New York, and they would have had a franchise quarterback and they could have avoided paying a guy to come in there and run the entire operation

from the quarterback position in Aaron Rodgers. But they wind up with Zach Wilson, who went down as maybe the biggest bust in NFL draft history, alongside JaMarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf. And you know, he's no longer with a team, And it's just proof, I think the way this Jets team has played out the last five years of how hard it is to build a team to get them

to come together at the exact same time. Because those Zach Wilson years produced seven and eight win years while the passing offense was literally setting marks all time lows for EPA per drop back from the quarterback position. But now the defense has taken the step back, which if you're a Drive Time listener, you know that two years is about the max you can expect from an elite defense on a back to back consecutive basis. Look at the Ravens this year after last year, Look at the

Chiefs this year. It's not been as good. It's been good, but not as good. It's just tough to do that. And the offense has been marginally better, easier to sustain success on that side of the ball. But they were hoping those two things would clash together. Elite defense and you drop in an elite quarterback who surprise is not elite quarterback at age forty one, coming out an Achilles injury,

and that just hasn't happened at all. In fact, it's reset them back behind the eight ball further than where they were probably when they made that twenty twenty one draft class happen.

I think a major contributing factor to the Jets struggles has been the inability to run the football, paired with an offense that takes a lot of time and reps to really perfect. I mean, let's call it what it is. It's the Aaron Rodgers offense. It's a series of high level side adjustments that is communicated through hands, signals and familiarity with each other. Hence why I think the belief that DeVante Adams would come in and make an major

impact right away was kind of a farccle approach. But I don't think you've I think you've seen the lack of chemistry even as recently as last week, like there was a missed wide open room service lay up touchdown to Garrett Wilson and Rogers. Aaron mells it by about four steps. They have a lot of options and the aforementioned site adjustments. I just don't think everybody is playing convicted within what they see and how they adjust on the fly. You get a lot of routes that come

back to the quarterback. That is a one oh one rule breaking procedure for an offense. For me, I don't want stagnant round to the guys standing still. I want them to be running towards the goal line or towards the sideline when they catch the football. I think a lot of that belief is that Aaron will see it and play on time, and then if he's not there, there's just not a lot of ability to create because well, you have to keep eight healthy, right we saw how

last year went down. But also just the design of that offense, like it's not designed really cohesively to maximize spacing and to create conflict to open up routes on the offense. There's there's not a professional play design. Like Todd Downing took over the play calling for net for Nat Hackett, but he's called we're calling him Nat by the way. I mean, yeah, that's what That's what you're

always gonna get. That's why Rogers flamed out in Green Bay with you know Matt Lafleur and Mike McCarthy before that. By structure, it's seventy percent eleven personnel, twenty percent twelve personnel, and the rest goes to thirteen and twenty one, So pretty common NFL deployment with the fullback use in there,

with plenty of tie end usage. They've been substantially better versus zone than man coverage this year, and I think that goes back the site adjustment comment, where it's just easier to spot throw than it is to throw guys open, which is funny because that's like the primary basis of their offense, but they haven't played that way this year.

How to attack them a quick spoiler. The first key is going to be a stop their early down running game, and quite frankly, that's what most teams have done against them in those nine losses. And they'll mix it up with gap and zone runs and different variations of the zone running game, but man, they have really struggled at the point of a tech, particularly off the edge at

the tight end position. I think you can accomplish this by playing lots of bass, which could bode well for you if you don't have cater Kohu, but also getting your dogs, you know, Seler and Campbell on the edge, like they've done so many times this year playing that five technique position. We've seen them both have success out there. I think this is a game where they could replicate that look from a defensive structure standpoint. I'd also call on a good mix of man coverage with Ramsey and

if Fuller comes back in that regard as well. Obviously, the aforementioned Seiler and Campbell off the edge means more DeShawn Hand and Benito Jones inside. But as far as the Jets go, like you know, they have really struggled to communicate upfront, and so I think we see the typical you know, Anthony Weaver blitz and sim pressure looks.

I think you could get some double clutches and then once you collapse the pocket, Rogers is not going to run around and create and you don't have to worry about, you know, flushing him outside of the pocket sideways because he doesn't have the ability to.

outside zone. The stresses your conditioning, your ability to set edges and then unfurl the passing game from there. But they've struggled with that for a handful of reasons. First, they might not have Breeze Hall in this game. He didn't practice on Wednesday after leaving Sunday's game against the Seahawks. They've really struggled the most on the edges, particularly with the ancillary pieces like your y tight end, your f and your receivers on crackbacks. You Day one Locked on

listeners will remember this. My buddy Joe Blewett, who I used to do work with on the old AFC East Bros.

in the development of the play. It's been a problem for them all year long, especially for a team that lives in as much twelve, twenty one and thirteen personnel, that has multiple backs or tight ends on the field at a given time as frequently as they run that those formations. And then you have an offensive line that, I think, through injuries this season but also changes in the offseason, they've never really had the chance to settle

in and gel as one cohesive unit. Like gosh, offensive line continuity is such an important I think I might say it's as or maybe even more important than the individual collection of talent that you have. They've gotten twelve games from their center Joe Tipman and their left guard John Simpson, who was a decent free agent signing. But they got ten games from their right guard Elijah Vera Tucker, which is more than he's ever given them, and nine games from each of their tackles in Tyron Smith and

Morgan Moses. So there's been some shuffling at pretty much every spot, as everybody on the team has missed a game. Besides Tipman and or No. Yeah, they're three to nine twelve games. Yeah, so Tipman and Simpson have not missed a game, but those the tackles in the right guard have all missed games at different times, so they've had to shuffle that lineup. And one of those guys right now is currently down in Tyron Smith, So it's Olufashan,

who had left tackle, the rookie from Penn State. So really they're as healthy as anybody, because that's the only opening day start that's down right now is Tyron Smith and maybe Breeze Hall. But I think Breecee's on his way towards a backup role at some point in this league. But I think that Braylan Allen is right there in

terms of his talent. And that's not a way of propping Braylan Allen up as much as it is kind of denigrating Breeze Hall's skill set, because I watched him a couple times this year and he looks slow and not a good decision maker, and I just I don't

see it there with that player. But the final part of the run game struggle is the consequence of having a forty one year old quarterback off major surgery, there's not going to be a lot of moving around for him, and the ability to bootleg off those outside zone runs makes life so much more difficult because there's not as much of a need to contain backside, so the defense can get an extra hat in the fit and not be all that concerned about the quarterback keeping it naked

out the other direction. So when I look at the fins, I think about getting Seeler and Campbell on the edge to beat up their tied end and left tackle combination, but also to put pressure on Rogers' backside, his blind side, and then the speed of Chop Robinson against their right tackle Morgan Moses, who's a good player, but if there's one thing he struggles with it is speed.

twenty or twenty three tackles, whatever it was. I've seen that number multiple different times at different numbers from different publications. But Next Gen had it at seventeen, so I will go with that number. But this is like you know again, it's it's not me, it's you.

But you know, guys like him that really stood out on the All twenty two pod, leave the charge, be the guy, be the one that is, you know earns that captain c next year, Guys like Zach Seeler and Kalais Campbell. And let's go back to the Patriots game where the tempo, the the like the temperature that you set was a really good early tone, and you carried it throughout the course of the game. I wouldn't just toss this in here independent of the opponent, like I

wouldn't just do that. I still contend it's an US thing. Let's prove it to ourselves. But this is in the copy. Because of Braylan Allen, his role has reduced. I was actually surprised to see this going back over the last few weeks because I watched like every Jets game for the first seven or eight games or so and have not been as in tune to them the last couple of weeks. I did watch the whole Seahawks game just to get a taste of what they're doing now. But

he was used early on in the passing game. It has kind of taken a back seat to Breeze Hall for whatever reason. He averages just three point six yards per carry, but he is a big dude who can run behind his pads. Sometimes he doesn't run as big as he is, which is like the ultimate knock I can put on running back of that size, and he averages just three point six yards per carry and just

two point nine to one yards after initial contact. But there were some tackling postures in that game where if they bring that to Braylen Allen, you're gonna get your butt run over.

I tried to find that clip, but there's not a good one of it. The only ones that exist on YouTube are like people that recorded their TV from their phone, and we're not about that poor audio quality here on the Draft Time podcast. So you got my version of it, not the clip of Big Daddy for that version. The third big key to stopping this Jets Mundane Aaron Rodgers let attack is the Marquee matchup part one and then

part two with our offense against their defense. The Marquie matchup will be Tyreek and Waddle versus those Jets cornerbacks. So that's another spoiler for you here in segment two. But point one is about DeVante Adams and Garrett Wilson versus Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller, who should play in the game on Sunday. I saw him practice on Wednesday, albeit in a red medical non contact jersey, but I imagine he will get removed from protocol by the end

of the week. I know their offense has been up and down and struggled, and they stink and they can't get lined up, and their offenses archaic and they don't have a good.

is in flight adjustments. No pun intendant for the Jets there go figure, but Rogers he has no problem like trying to throw guys open, and that's been their most successful play is like third and medium back shoulder conversion or it's the go come back back shoulder conversion option where you if you play him without safety help, it's typically to the X receiver to the boundary the short

side of the field. They'll go after that matchup and they'll show a vertical release and once the quarterback dictates, you know, his his hip flip and declares where he's going to try to sprint to, they will get that cornerback out of phase and then Rogers will throw that thing back shoulder, and both Adams and Garrett Wilson are very good at adjusting to the back shoulder ball, and Alan Mazard was this year too, but he's down right now.

So it'll be imperative for Ramsey to play physically up the stem, for Fuller to find his way into the proper position to make those big plays, because I think that he doesn't really have the body composition to make that physical matchup the way Ramsey does. And it's the same on the interior for Cater when he gets the matchups,

or for Storm Duck on the perimeter. If Cater cannot go and we have to go three cornerbacks with Cater's or rather storm Duck is the third is by the way, camp Smith back on ir might have seen his last game as a Miami Dolphin.

give these guys free access. They have struggled all year with their timing, but don't let them find it by playing passive and letting them dictate the terms in terms of where they want the football to go. If you do that with what I discussed in the earlier points, I think you free up some ability to create some splash plays on defense, to get some takeaways, and give the offense some short fields and take control of this game.

When have we gotten short fields for the offense? We had one against the Raiders and it was a twenty five a twenty three, No, twenty five yard to play touchdown drive. I'm trying to think when else do we get short fields? Like maybe in the Rams game we had a couple. We scored on those. We just don't do it enough. The Seahawks game, got the ball at the four yard line and couldn't score on that one. Got to find a way to get short fields, and

we don't do that ever anymore. Back in like twenty twenty, we got short fields all the damn time.

also had a kickoff return for a touchdown. They also had two takeaways on special teams last week. I mean tells you how bad they are. Right, if we ever got a special team's touchdown and two takeaways, we would win that game by thirty points. But they still lost that game. Xavier Gibson's the pump returner, and I don't know how to pronounce the same. We're gonna try it anyway, Kenny and Wongu. I don't know, dude, ninety nine yarder against the Seahawks on Sunday. Let's go ahead and pivot Pard,

pivot to the Jets defense. Wait, Who's defense and gone, damn Jets. Thank you, Frankenstein. Let's go ahead and talk about the scheme first. Even with the coaching change, the principles remain the same. Speaking of principles, any of you guys watched Vice Principals starring Danny McBride and Walter Goggins.

with your hair on fire. On the other side of the line of scrimmage, we've got athletic, physical linebackers that can play downhill and get vertical backwards, and they want to dictate the terms on the outside and plays tons of press cover, one man, free man coverage across the bottom, single high safety taking care of the top. They run the most Cover one in football, behind only the Lions, so the second most is why it's meant to say that's basically they're only a man coverage. Look, they do

not play two man. In fact, they play it tied for the lowest rate in the National Football League, it's below one percent. So I don't expect them to run the one coverage that has actually given us fits over the last three years. Maybe they do, Maybe they'll just and they'll play something different like a Bill Belichick defense would do, but I don't think they will. Now they do have a good mix of zone where it's an even blend of Cover three and quarters.

defenders in the deep quarter. So it's like a variation of Cover three, but it's actually Cover six so Tua and the boys have to be very adept at filtering between take what's there and attack mode because they will play man free and go press on the outside and with their third and short medium packages and they will

get the blitz after you in that way too. So that's the challenge, just with the calibration between taking what's there with the defense gives us and taking our shots, because I think the shots are going to be there. They do blitz at twenty five percent clip, but if they do that against this quarterback, you're gonna get dice.

on any given play. So always a fun matchup the Big Three against the Jets defense. Number one is to run the ball wide. This is a I can copy and paste this from the game in September and twenty or from October twenty twenty two to here in December and twenty twenty four. It's been the same first key

literally every game. You'll recall that as the game where Teddy Bridgewater was removed after like scraping his helmet on the Jets end zone for some reason, you know, and also getting tagged with an intentional grounding call that was actually not intentional grounding. I don't understand one way to pay the price against the Jets for what happened in that Bengals game.

All things told, in the four matchups against the Jets under Mike McDaniel, we average one hundred and thirty seven yards per game on the ground, and two of those games did not have one of the game's best quarterbacks who holds the defense's attention for the passing game, which is impressive to me. It's a stylistic thing you hear sometimes from analysts, like Team A is a good matchup for Team B, even if Team A is a superior team.

It's because of things like this. Their scheme plays that one gap upfield, stress your gaps, try to get down the field and and force them into quick decisions. And our ability to mitigate that by getting those players out of their gaps with peer speed to the edge and getting the ball around the corner. It just bodes well when we can pin them in on those immediate penetration attempts.

Doesn't hurt that they have two corners that have no interest in tackling in my opinion, and safeties who don't really come from depth all that well, like they'll they'll play in the box and they'll kind of dictate that from their pre snap alignments. Although Jalen Mills does some of that, but I don't think he's a great player at that position. And it's not just the Dolphins. The Jets'

two highest rushing totals allowed this year. You know, they've allowed more than one hundred and fifty yards and two games the Bills had one to forty nine on them. A few weeks back, the Niners had one hundred and eighty yards on Opening Night without Christian McCaffrey, and the Texans had a buck eighty seven on Halloween.

So you get the whole point. Now, this is a good test of where I feel like we're sorely lacking and where the run game has kind of gone away for the Dolphins, not kind of, it has totally gone away. Austin was a difference maker at right tackle and we've never really had a true why that was a true plus blocker in the running game. So I think that there's something to be said about getting that production without having that against the Jets. But it's still like near

the very top of my offseason shopping list. So we also have only had Devon a Chan for nine carries in those four games. He had nine for thirty two in the December game last year, did not play in the Black Friday game. And he has become a true bellcal for us. He's receiver three.

this game to be any different. My bold prediction here is that devan Achan has one hundred and fifty yards from scrimmage and scores twice and probably one of those in the passing game. Let's go ahead and take our last break right there after, a bold bold bull bull bull bold prediction, and come back and tell you the keys number two and three for the Dolphins offense against the Jets defense, as well as the range of outcomes, the prediction for the game, what's at stake, and the

three keys, all of that. Next Drive Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield right to you, back eronation, and that's about how I think this game is gonna go on Sunday. They never should have given me the skills to make sound drops because that's what you're gonna get. Let's go ahead and pick it back up with thing number two. I'm distracted here for the Dolphins offense against the Jets defense, and call it the pyrotechnics in because it might be

time for some fireworks. I think this is the first defense that we will see that will present deep shot ops or one on one ops down the field in quite some time. Well, I guess the Patriots did some of that, but we kind of earned that those shots periodically against the Raiders and at Packers as well at times. But from the early commitment to the short game that brought those teams up a little bit. The Jets they know who they are, though, what their identity is, and

how they play into that. They want to disrupt and challenge you, and they think their corners are all good enough to play man on any receiver in the league on any down distance in a game. Now, the reason I say we might be getting the fight song queued up even when we're at our own thirty yard line is twofold number one Sauce Gardner left last Sunday's game with the hamstring injury, and Jeff Oldbrooks that's too early to tell in his availability. He did not practice on Wednesday.

Maybe they'll run him out there, but at three and nine, I have to imagine there's a little bit less urgency to do so with one of your best players. And that coincides with a second point, and that it is that I will always take Reek and Wattle against anybody who wants to man them up. Put Deon Sanders and Derel Revas out there. I'm still going to try to hit my home runs with those two guys, provided they

do not have safety help. So those things and Sauce coming off a hamstring, I mean, I cannot think of a worse injury to play with when you're facing Tyreek Hill and again when he's healthy.

one on one. I think Tua's best throw is the slot fade or the boundary takeoff, which is the short side of the field, kind of make that deep throw shorter for him. The big play Wattle made against the Patriots was a slot fade, the gorgeous touchdown on the slot fade in Detroit two years ago. To me, it's

one of their best routes they throw together. They'll kick Michael Carter out to the perimeter and have those guys run with us if it's third and four, third and three, and they'll tilt help to the one side, so you can identify that and then find your ex fade or your slot fade against that one on one coverage. So I think you'll see that a few times and hopefully

we hit one or two of them. I told one of our photographers here who's been dying to get some deep ball shots, I said, when it's third and three or third and four, that's when it's gonna happen. So I'm hoping that he can find one of those photos. And I cannot wait for it to happen and to

celebrate with him on Monday. To top this off, I think this is a game where we will have to focus, are going to have to focus or will focus, I should say, on our backs and tight ends and trust their cornerbacks to win because that's how you structured your defense, like you have to do that to win. Both safeties

are more box players. Jalen Mills is a converted cornerback who loves to play the slot and head hunt as a robber, and Chuck Clark is one of the better tacklers in the game, but he doesn't really do a lot in terms of his deep coverage and I think that his return has really added stability to that back then, but his game is again not going to run vertical

with four to two guys. Mills missed the first part of the year and Clark just got back from a mid season injury, so I think that the communication could be worth keeping an eye on if they if they're all, you know, lock and key with that, especially with Sauce possibly being out. And look, I don't hate the pieces at all, but this just feels to me like a week where you had an emotional game coming off your bye week after a brutal start to the year. They

were two and one and went three in eight. So they went one and seven over the next eight games. Had the bye week a chance to kind of like refresh and maybe do some new stuff and feel refreshed for lack of a returnment coming out of the bye week. And they got all those breaks and they still could not pull off the win. The season's over. The GM got fired, the coach got fired. Who are you trying to impress this year? Like the quarterback is probably gonna

be gone. You get out of the New York weather, you come down here in December to Miami. I could see this being a vacation game for the Jets, their practice week and study, maybe not having full in ten, maybe some guys taking a couple of short cuts here and there. So I know that I already predicted it a big day for a cham So I won't go one hundred yards for both Wreak and Waddle, But let's

just say this. Let's say let's call the bold prediction three pass plays of twenty five plus yards between those three guys, and I'll do you one more and say that one of those will go for fifty plus and that could be a run play as well. So that's kind of I expect explosive plays the Dolphins against a Jets defense that wants to play a certain way I think might not have their heads in the right place and is a little bit banged up on that backside.

Number three, help on Q and Will McDonald when they're not on seventy two. This rush used to be comprised of a super deep rotation that moved guys in and out, kept them fresh, and just came with wave after wave until they broke you down late in games. See that twenty twenty two game back in New York. Hassan Reddick was their big ticket free agent and they swapped him out for Bryce Huff, and Reddick hasn't played well the entire year. He missed half the year for a holdout

and has not produced since he came back. And Bryce Huff was their best pass rusher last year, So what a net loss that was. Quentin Jefferson and John Franklin Myers are both gone, but they still have impact players. It's just not as deep as it was in the past. Luckily, McDonald rushes almost exclusively off the offense's left and I'm good just keeping tea stead there.

to have an answer for these guys. Like Luckily, I think Brewer has really stabilized things and can essentially pick out which side that Q goes to, and then whichever guard he can help on when he rushes that guard, and then on runs with WAM action and split flow, you know all the stuff where you can get wide and you know leave upfield pound trailers unaccounted for. I think you can scheme him out of the game a

little bit that way too. So big day for our two best upfront going up against their two best upfront, and Brewer and tistead on Quinn Williams and Will McDonald. I did not mention Brandon Eckles he would be the replacement for Sauce Gardner, and I actually think he's a starter in most places, just not in the Jets, where they have three good cornerbacks Javon kin Law and saw them and Thomas play a lot of snaps, but they're kind of like replacement level. Maybe Salomon Thomas a bit

above replacement level. Jamie and Sherwood's a fun player to watch. He has allowed juice to his game. He replaced CJ. Mosley who's been down with Andrey for a while, and then Quincy Williams is one of the better chasing tackle backers in the league. So their speed and ability to extend that hook zone and matchup on John Hu and Ah Chan that's a big deal, especially if that's where their attention goes instead of helping the receivers, which means that Wreak and Waddle gonna have to win you a

football game like they did last year. For instance, what's at stake? Lose and you're done. I mean, how depressing was is that thought? But how depressing was Week thirteen? Like my god, man, every damn game the team that needed to win should have won and did not win. The Browns, Falcons and Patriots should have won those freaking football games. And had they done that, I think that we could afford a loss, but not in this one. Either way, this game was never an option to lose.

It's a must win. They stink we're at home. Get me to Houston, because I think if you can win that game, the run to ten wins becomes very, very very plausible. And if you do that, you're gonna get in. You can be scared of the Colt schedule.

that's the scenario. And so one thing you want to root for the rest of the way, in addition to you know, Broncos losses and all that stuff, is for the Chiefs to have a reason to play in Week eighteen, because if the season's on the line and the Broncos.

we lose this game. There always is, right, well, not always, but sometimes I just think it could be a one possession game potentially because of the talent and the playmaking they have buried deep in the annals of their team, like it's I don't think it's going to come out this year, but maybe it does once but they stink right,

maybe they put it all together. I don't know, but I think you could get a twenty four to twenty three game possibly if we just crap the bed and turn it over and bust a coverage and tackle like we did on Thursday night and get bogged down in penalties, anything can happen at that point, But make no mistake about it, this is a team that plays like they signed a quarterback and gave him a voice more powerful than their head coach, and the GM like a team

that had a quarterback who nobody wants to work with and let him choose. The OC has time and time again proven he is Adam Gase without Peyton Manning level competent, right.

But now they look like a team that has a trying to handle day to day operations that takes them away from install and preparation of meetings and from repping practice and walkthroughs like, I think this game gets ugly, which stretches the other end of the range quite wide. I don't think they'll be able to stop our running game.

I think Sauce is kind of on that Javon Hollandarck a little bit and might not play in the game even I think their constant offensive mistakes will compound issues and we will run these dudes out of the building. The range is like thirty eight to ten, but I'm not going to go that crazy, so I will say Dolphins win this one thirty one to thirteen.