Drive Time with Travis Wingfield begins. Now let me check your pulse if you're not far of what is up? Dolphins And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast, part of the Miami Dolphins podcast network covering your team, your Miami Dolphins.
How's it going everybody? I am your host, Travis Wingfield, And on today's show, it is preview time on the road again and then guess what, just one more game the rest of the way away from the friendly confines of hard Rock Stadium, It'll be Dolphins at Commander's back to the preferred for me personally one pm kickoff, keys to victory, big matchups, introduction into this crazy Commander's organization, top storylines, and much much more. But from the Baptist
Health Studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is the Draft Time Podcast. So I made that point off the open about the home schedule the rest of the way. Right after this week, it's home, home, home, away home, and there are no more Hurricanes games here at hard Rock Stadium, which means the beautiful aqua end zones and the best playing surface in the National Football League College football or otherwise is back, and December usually means the
return of the Aqua jerseys as well. I know folks have been looking forward to those a lot. I definitely am. I wonder if they'll do Aqua on Aqua this year, as my personal favorite uniform combination, although to be perfectly honest, I don't really care that much. Maybe the Monday night football game would be the spot for those if you
do them. We do get the Aqua throwbacks on Christmas Eve versus Dallas, so I would assume it's Aqua tops white pants one game, maybe the throat for sure, the throwbacks, then maybe the Aqua on Aqua. Who knows, maybe Aqua on white again, I don't know. Again, who cares? I always tell myself I don't care about uniforms, and yet here I am talking about them. But yeah, the aesthetics of a fully painted field with the mo patterns and all the good stuff that goes into that, that, for
whatever reason does matter to me. Probably because I used to turn my backyard as a child into a full fledged football grounds, so probably some nostalgia involved there. But first here, before all of that, a trip to land Over, Maryland and FedEx Field. How about the weather report usually only include this? If I think it could be impactful,
and on this Wednesday, things could obviously change. The report does call for some precipitation, some rain, at least a fifty percent chance of it, but also fifty six degree temperature. So a ball me early December day here in the nation's capital wins under ten miles an hour. I think
it was seven last I checked. And with the way Miami unleashed its ground game, and for a commander's team that leeds league in passing attempts and throws the ball a billion times per game, I'm interested to see how the report changes over these coming days. Anyway, let's go ahead and meet these commandos. They made some coaching changes after the loss in Dallas, relieving Jack del Rio of his defensive coordinator duties and defensive backs coach Brett Visselmayer.
And that's where I jump into kind of start monologuing off the top here, because the league and seemingly general
common sense passed del Rio by years ago. In fact, I recall watching a breakdown earlier this year, and the defensive structural issues were so expected that the creator or the voiceover person of this content just said, and you have this here because well it's Jack wrote del Rio calling a defense, and so while I think it's auditioned by subtraction, the guy that put him in that position to begin with to run his defense is still there.
But now I'm supposed to expect it to get better, now that you've lopped off one hundred hours worth of work over the course of a game week. And is Ron taking that on himself? And if he is, where does the delegation of his other tasks fall to. I've always wondered that. And who's filling in for the one hundred hours of the dB coach's work? The same ripple effect there. I don't know. I just think it's a really poorly coached outfit so far, and it's been that
way for a moment. Rivera arrived back in twenty twenty, the pandemic year, taking over for Jay Gruden, and they were coming off a three and thirteen atrocious season. You might recall competing with us for a draft position that year, and they picked second in a draft that included Burrow Tongue Vailoa, Herbert love Hertz and also the prospect that everyone was sure was they can't miss and Chase Young. And despite the fact that who is their quarterback then.
I don't even know they didn't have one, right, I can't remember who was. I think it was Taylor Heineke, and they went for Chase Young over Tua. Detroit did the exact same thing with Jeff Okudo and they didn't have a quarterback either, So crazy to think about that in hindsight, but that's where they went to Chase Young and he was that rookie, was a baller, but then injuries piled up and he's since been shipped off to
San Francisco. But that was their first pick under Rivera and it helped them win the NFC East that year, albeit with a seven to nine losing record, but it was a pretty drastic turnaround from a three win season that helped inspire some hope under the new regime there, and they've stayed in that ballpark the last couple of years. Another seven win season back in twenty twenty one. They were seven to ten that year with an extra game.
They were eight eight and one last year with a tie that gave him a five hundred record, hilariously, and now a four and eight start to the season with new ownership. So the biggest win for the Commandos is that Dan Snyder is no longer there, right, so they have a win in their back pocket this year, but it's not going that well. And I'm sure we'll see
all new faces next year across the board. But I'm pretty sure it's a difficult world to operate inside of because Josh Harris, the new owner there, he didn't hire coach Rivera, he didn't oversee the roster built this way, and I think it's tough for a new owner to come in right away and have success. We see it all the time Carolina Panthers under David Tepper, who's meddling in all the football business there, and look at where
they're at. They're going to be in the basement for a long time because of the decisions they've made there at the quarterback position, at the head coaching position. And we saw it here. It was a struggle, you know, back in the oughts right to get things figured out from an ownership standpoint. But I think the reason the Commanders have hovered around five hundred since Rivera's arrival is the talent's pretty good, especially on the offensive side of
the football. It's one of my favorite group of eligibles in the entire NFL because they hit YACHTSI absolute yachtsie on Terry McLaurin back in twenty eighteen, a second round draft pick, easily a top ten wide receiver. I love, love, love Curtis Samuel and those folks that have been with the podcast here for a few years know that I was dying to get him into a two A tongue of my lower led offense back in twenty twenty one. Johan Dotson was a first round pick last year. He's
the man. Diomi Brown's a great fourth like kind of vertical stretch and special teams type of receiver. He's in the mix there. They brought Logan Thomas in, who's become one of the game's better tight ends after being a quarterback in college. Brian Robinson was a fourth round pick last year, and he looks the part. So they have weapons.
And then you've got young Sam Howe their fifth round pick last year, a guy that was thought to be a potential number one overall pick before a final season at North Carolina kind of took that off the rails. And I think if the Commanders have done anything this year that was positive, it's that they've uncovered a guy who I think can play in this league. We'll get more into the scouting report on him later on, but there are things in Howell's game to really build around.
On the other side, the same twenty twenty class that gave you Chase Young also gave you Cameron curl in the sixth round, and he's been one of the best safeties in the entire NFL. Otherwise, the class didn't provide much fruit that year. Twenty twenty one sure as hell did though. Jamon Davis is one of their off ball linebackers starting He's a first rounder, although it's been a struggle for him. Sam Cosmy is their second round pick. He starts at guard for them. It's been a struggle
for him as well. Their third round pick though, cornerback Benjamin Saint Jews from Minnesota love his game. He is a very physically dominant cornerback at that position. As for the rest of the defense, to Ron Payne and Jonathan Allen are the two best players on the team. I would say they were both first round picks prior to Rivera's arrival, and they went Montes sweat as well. Just sometimes it's not a great idea to draft the same position every year, over and over again, two years back
to back. Fine strength and your strength, but don't do it four years in a row. That's what they did here with three first round picks and then a second round pick in Montes Sweat. I Digress one of the best dtackle combos in the NFL. Major hits there, but again they've now traded young and Montese Sweat. They invested so much capital upfront, but then you wind up playing on Thanksgiving. Two rookies off the edge, a fifth rounder and kJ Henry and a seventh rounder Andre Jones, Josh James.
They started that Thanksgiving game and it was evident that there was two rookies off the edge in the third day of the draft. So it's a team that I feel is ready to compete on offense, maybe definitely in some transition on defense. And they've come up short in a few close games. That's the difference between being four and eight and you know, six and six. So that's
how it goes in this league. They lost an overtime to Philadelphia, they lost by a touchdown to the Giants, and then again at home to the Giants a few weeks ago. Because they had six giveaways. Can't do that. They lost in Seattle despite taking a lead with less than two minutes to play in that game and the defense had to get back on the field. They lost to the Eagles again by three. Again, that's the league, right, but Miami hasn't made it that way for opposing teams
barely at all this year. The Patriots back in Week two played us pretty close. The Raiders in Week eleven plays pretty close. But other inferior teams have gotten the stomp from this Dolphins team. Right. How about the storylines in this one, So there's a good example right there, the fact that Miami tends to wipe out bad teams, which is a sign of a great team. By the way. Go back in history and check out teams that thrash the opposition when they're touchdown plus favorites. That's that's what
good teams do. Baby, My next storyline kind of got wiped out because I expected it to be different than it was. But a potential cold weather game, but it could be a wet weather game, you know. I think it's a good chance to get a test run for what Baltimore could be in a few weeks. Fifty isn't cold unless you're in South Florida. My daughter's daycare teacher the other day on the playground was bundled up in
like a north face and was shivering. It's like, come on, man, it's fifty five, come on, come on now, sixty degrees out here. But maybe it moves into the fourth quarter and in the evening and could get into the low forty. So Miami's ability to come pete in cold, wet weather could be good. Again, pretty good chance of rain. Just want to see how sloppy conditions affect us. If we do get those three game divisional lead on the line with five to play, that's more for the what's at
state category, but it's a storyline to me. Huge opportunity here to stretch your lead in the division with the Bills off and playing at the Chiefs next week and then players returning. Could we get Devon ah chanback that would be nice. Could we get Rob Hunt back? That would be very nice. There just aren't that many storylines for this game. It's kind of what you see is what you get. NFC team, they're pretty much knocked out a playoff contention at this point. One more loss would
definitely do that. Nine losses. There's not a lot of crossover between former players and coaches. McDaniel had been on that staff previously. Obviously, John Embry was there as well, and actually Eric Bienemy was the OC at Colorado when John Embry was there. That's interesting, I think. And then Danny Crossman had a cup of coffee made the roster in nineteen ninety for the Washington We won't say the team name there, but he was on that roster before going on IR after just a few games. So coach
Crossman a reunion back to his former stomping ground. Let's go ahead and continue rolling here before the first break and talk about this Dolphins offense versus this Commando's defense. And I'm saying that intentionally, by the way, Commander's is a to me, a hilarious, hilariously bad name. You know, lots of commanders there in Washington in the Capitol, like, okay, cool guys. Better than the previous name, though the football team sucked, and the name before that was not great either.
So you're making steadily steady improvements. But maybe we find a name that's not corny as hell. Anyway, Dolphins offense versus Commando's defense, the safeties Cameron curl and Percy Butler played the majority of the snaps. Curls one hundred percent snap taker. Butler has been infused in the lineup later in the season, so he's only played seventy seven percent of those snaps, but he will play every snap in
this game on Sunday, barring injury. Derek Forrest also has played forty one percent of the reps, more of an early season starting type of load there, more than it is three safety big nickel packages, but just giving you guys the full compliment. And then at corner, Kyle Fuller and Benjamin Saint Juice are one hundred percent snap takers. It's probably their best position on defense outside of those
two DT's right now. But in the slot, it's been a struggle, especially trying to replace the injured Emmanuel Forbes, who has kicked Saint Juice inside. That's where he typically would go on nickel downs, as Forbes would come into the game off the perimeter and Saint Juice would kick inside. But now they go to the rookie Jartevas Martin to come in and man the slot. I don't think Forbes will play in this game. If he does, I would run the football at him every single time. He's not
physically up to the challenge of that. So Jartavas Martin and then Danny Johnson's also played twenty two percent of the snaps inside God, to be honest with you guys, a lot of these names I'm not super familiar with inside Deron Payne eighty three percent of the snaps and Jonathan Allen eighty one percent. Those guys are game wreckers, definitely gonna be in the Keys spoiler alert. And then Ridgeways played thirty percent of the snaps. Off the edge.
They traded away all of their edge production at the trade deadline. Casey two Hills played thirty seven percent of the snaps. That has increased tenfold since those trades. kJ Henry and Andre James, two rookies, have also played ten percent of the snaps this year, but those were your starters on Thanksgiving, and then off ball linebackers Jamon Davis eighty six percent. I loved him out of college. Has not had it click for him in terms of the
mental side of the game. Reminds me so much of Kenneth Murray and Los Angeles and you guys, remember what happened when we saw that linebacker on that field on that day, and then Cody Barton is sixty percent snap taker. So I mean, that's pretty much the gist of it. They traded away their edge production. The secondary was always very thin. The linebackers kind of get caught in mud a lot, and they use this personnel accordingly. So their base package is a four to three. That's ten percent
of their workload. They come out of nickel sixty one percent of the time, and they played dime seventeen percent of the time. And that probably has more to do with the fact that they don't really have edge rushers right now, and they've pumped that number up with more six defensive back packages than usual. But most defenses operate from two high concepts, right Like, that's pretty common across
the league. They'll get to varied looks, but this is one of the more consistent teams in terms of what they do that's too high. It's similar to the Rivera Panthers teams of old, which if you recall, had Sean McDermott calling their defense. So think Buffalo with lots of those cover two kind of eyes in the quarterback. But to the sideline type of looks, only the Commandos do not have Taron Johnson, so they don't have the exclusive nickel defense they run with him up there. That kind
of drives the entire scheme there. But evident by what we just laid out in the personnel grouping, deployment zone, off eyes in the quarterback lighter boxes, that's what you can expect. Let's go ahead and take a break right there and come back and finish up Dolphins offense versus Commander's defense here, and I'm gonna tell you about why this team at generating no pressure and why Miami could
be in for a big, big day offensively. That's next here on the Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation, continuing the show in segment two, Dolphin's offense versus Commando's defense here, and I left off talking about the structure of it, and the truth is, it's difficult to know what it will be exactly because you have a new play caller and the guy that was calling the defense previously is no longer
in the building. So new staff, new direction, but it's still kind of the same principle as the defense, Like who knows. But what we do have a good sample size of is the difference in the Commando's pass rush since they traded Chase Young and Montes Sweat. So here's the four games post Young and Sweaty era. Fourteen pressures versus the Cowboys not bad, twenty three pressures against the Giants very good against a team that can't block, thirteen
against the Seahawks not good. Ten against the Patriots very not good. So that's sixty pressures in four games an average of fifteen perts. Not that bad. But the Giants game really throws it out of whack, doesn't it. But here's the eight games prior to that, prior to those two trades. Twenty versus the Eagle, that's a great offensive line you got twenty fifteen against the Commando or against
the Giants. Sorry, how does that work out? Though? Like we had twenty three with without them and fifteen with them, I don't know. Fifteen versus the Falcons is not great. Twenty four against the Bear that's great. Twenty one vers Philly again, wow, twelve versus Buffalo that was a blowout game that was never even like Allen was just chilling in the pocket all game long thirty seven versus Denver Holy Moly, and then eleven in the opener versus Arizona,
but no Chase Young in that game. So either way, it's a nineteen point four pressures per game average. So the pressures have reduced by twenty one percent since the trade. I mentioned the personnel change, right, it's two rookies starting off the edge with them. It reminds me of the Bears last year when we saw them after Robert Quinn and Rokwan Smith got traded, and it was kind of like, uh,
they can't really play anymore. They have one player who has over twenty five pressures this year, it's the best on their team, Jonathan Allen. In fact, Chase Young still leads their team with thirty eight pressures and Sweat is third with twenty seven. Deron Pain's the only other player who has more than twenty. He has twenty three. So spoiler alert here. One of the keys of the game for me is going to be to contain those two
on the interior, both Pain and Alan. Let's talk about them here, but first, real quick, casey two Hill has twelve pressures, one hundred and eighty nine pass rush reps, James Smith Williams has fourteen on one to seventy five. kJ Henry has four on fifty five, and it's the exact same number for Andrew Jones. Andre Jones, sorry, but
back to the interior. It's not good. It's what I'm telling you guys, two massive, strong, quick, heavy handed complete players who can collapse the pocket and two gap to win versus the running game. I think Pain is the one that draws more attention because he kind of has that Wilkins skill set where it's a good punch in placement and then very good lower body agilia to kind of cross you up. He rushes largely off the right guard, so it'd be good to get big rob Beck in
the mix there. I do think it's been tougher on them post trade. In fact, last year he and Jonathan Allen were ninth and twelfth among defensive tackles in ESPN's pass rush win rate metric. This year they're twenty sixth
and forty second out of fifty two. But I think it goes back to what we said about the Miami rush last year, is the ball is out so fast that it mitigates a lot of the good pass rush you do you get, and the Commanders have had issues on top of issues covering the pass down the field before we move on. This is why I love having Connor Williams in the pivot. Our slides and mic points
are just always on point. We get the right guy double damner every time, and Tua usually has a very good interior pocket, which is critical for his skill set. I'm curious what it looks like if Rob Hunt is back. I would think you have options there because you might see Rob Jones back as well. You know, Liam and Lester have played a lot, but I think that Liam has been the superior player in those regards, so I'm curious to see if he moves sides or what it
could look like there. Come Sunday before the secondary. You guys, remember the Charger game, right with Kenneth Murray the linebacker chasing his tail all game long. That's gonna happen in this game. Cody Barton is maybe the most limited linebacker athletically in the league. Jamon Davis is the opposite, but he's like Murray, doesn't really know what he's doing. To be perfectly house with you, I think Waddle and Reek both go for one hundred plus in this game, I
think we eat. We eat in the Capitol in that fifteen to twenty yard range. The inbreaking we love to get against those chargers teams and other defenses that play the style of defense. I think we'll get a long catch and run this week. I'm saying it's Wonnell for a fifty plus yard touchdown. That's mostly yeah, that's my prediction. A slant or a drag or a crosser where he or a glance where he breaks a tackle and is off to the races. Moving on to that secondary, Kendall
Fuller has been a stud for a long time. He's off the corner, he reads and reacts and has a great trigger. He's a good playmaker, so if you make a mistake, he can make you pay. But watching the Dallas game, gosh, they really struggle to adapt to motion. They were able. The Cowboys were to get free releases all game long. They would have guys run with the motion. That made the quarterbacks job so easy, like it was a declaration immediately pre snap. But if you get that
to Tua, you're you're screwed. You can't let Tua have that. He's gonna dice you up. It's a big ask for them this week. And again, the structure of this defense reminds me of the Chargers. You've got round pegs and square holes, a middle of the field safety who rushes to half field, so like outside the numbers to cover you know, the perimeter deep ball with a slot cornerback playing outside leverage to Cede Lambs, You're giving free access inside to CD Lamb without safety help. That is free
money for the offense. Like that's that's scheduled yards for the offense. They also run Tampa two. What year is it? Like they do with Cody Barton. Like a four to nine linebacker could get matched up on the three vertical, which could be Tyreek Hill or Jalen Waddle. That's possible that happens. They want to disrupt you. They want to play physical and get you off your line. Especially against this offense. They'll do that for sure. So I think
the motion really helps. It helps declare the answers pre snap. Benjamin Saint Jus wants to play up in your face. But they play a lot like their offense. It's feast or famine. They'll jump routes and take chances and they only have six picks to show for it, but it's also led to sixteen touchdowns allowed from outside the red zone twenty plus yard touchdowns. That's the most in the NFL.
And guests who has the most scoring touchdowns of those type the Dolphins fifteen touchdowns from outside the red zone. Let's keep that and then finally, the role of the running backs is big, I think because of those linebackers propensity to jump false keys and get themselves in the wrong gaps and then the wrong coverage positions. So a quality wide running game could really influence the linebackers in the passing game. Getting a chan back would be absolutely awesome.
But either way, Raheem and Jeff I thought were great at stretching things out last week and then finding those gaps increases to hit it up into with explosive running attempts. They keep you on schedule, gets you explosive runs and score touchdowns because this offense, when they have running game going, is impossible to stop. Let's go ahead and take our last break right there, come back on the other side and do the commander's offense versus the Miami defense. Also
once at stake three keys to victory. All of that and a heck of a lot more coming here on this Wednesday Dolphins Commander's Preview edition of the Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation. So if you couldn't tell from the first two segments of the show, expect some points from the Dolphins offense
on this Sunday. Let's go ahead and see how much the Commanders might score though, as they have sam Hal up against our safety duo of Javon Holland and Deshaun Elliott, with Terry mcclaurin playing eighty four percent of the snaps out wide, Jahan Dotson playing eighty three percent of those snaps, and then Diami Brown is twenty five percent and Byron Pringle twenty percent. They'll face the likes of Ramsey and Howard, maybe some Apple or camp Smith if there's an injury.
But that's your depth at the quarterbacks bot obviously. But inside, Curtis Samuel plays ninety percent of his reps and he plays half of the Commander's reps in general, So what is that forty five percent of the time they snapped the football, Curtis Samuel is going to be inside the slot. Their tight end Logan Thomas plays sixty six percent and Nick Bates plays forty five percent. The other tight end
they have there, so really good skill group. I like that bunch of lawn against Kohu and Niedham and Bethel. On the interior offensive line, it goes Chris Paul, Tyler, Larson and Sam Cosmy. They'll have to deal with Seeler and Raykwan and Christian Wilkins in the middle. And then off the edge, Charles Lenno the former Bear and Andrew Wiley the former Chief are the two tackles they'll have to deal with. Obviously Chubb and GANKINAGBA and probably not
JPP just yet. But I gotta take Phillips off here and that really makes me sad, so remove him from the roster on there. And then running back first linebacker obviously Jerome Baker and David Long with some Andrew Van Geinkle Mixon theirs well against Brian Robinson, who plays fifty three percent of the snaps and Antonio Gibson plays forty one percent. Not a lot of injury news here for these guys. They're starting center. Ricky Stromberg is on IR
and they've really missed him. But then his replacement. Also, Nick Gates is down two, so they've really struggled on the interior offensive line because they're starting a journeyman and Tyler Lawson their personnel Tyler Larson. Their personnel usage eleven personnel, one receiver or one running back, one tight end, three receivers is three quarters of the time seventy five percent. They bring that second tight end on the field for
twelve personnel seventeen percent of the time. They'll bring a third tight end for thirteen personnel four percent of the time. And they do run some twenty one, which is two backs and one tight end, but it's always fast twenty one with Robinson and Gibson in the game no full back. They run that just under three percent of the time. So I mentioned the attrition at the center spot. That's one of the toughest positions in the NFL to replaces,
and to have to do it twice. I think it's been the biggest reason for some of those sack production the teams have had against this Commando's team, because teams put how on the turf a lot, he gets hit a lot, he gets sacked a lot, and ruins a lot of drives and this line has some good pieces and how does hold the ball forever. But teams have
really really excelled running games inside. And I think it's the combination of a second year quarterback who played just one game as a rookie, so really a rookie quarterback and a center who's been a journeyman across the NFL. I think it's tough to get your protection sorted without flaw in those circumstances. And we've seen that, and we'll talk about Sam Cosmy as well, but he also gets walked into the quarterback for a living, it seems like. But all that said, this is my first time studying
Sam Howe. I like him a lot. Some of the protection lapses are covered up because he's got a ton of creativity. It does produce a lot of sacks, again, but their biggest plays come from off schedule splash plays from Sam Howe creating. There's an occasional lapse like ball security or he runs too high with it, loses the football. He can be loose with it, puts it in harm's way, will force a throw into a coverage structure that's not
supposed to go in that direction. All of that is there but again, first year starting, and there's enough anticipatory throws with plenty of creativity that makes me think they ought to build this thing around this guy in the immediate future. You're not like you're not giving up a lot to do that. I think they're gonna be too far away from getting one of the top three or four quarterbacks in the draft this year. It's gonna win a couple more games and push themselves into that kind
of ten twelve of the draft range. But what are you gonna do, Go sign a veteran quarterback who's not gonna play well for you. I would keep how and build this thing around him because he's got cheap contract for two more years, and they could make some noise if they fix that defense a little bit and get better on the offensive line. But again, you know, first year starting, all that stuff, it looks pretty good. And I was texting Kyle Krabs, I'm saying, there's some winning
traits here for this quarterback. But I also said to him, I guarantee you this guy was a shortstop at some point in his life. Sure enough, he played college baseball, was a pitcher in college, but he also was an infielder in high school, and you can just see it in how he plays. He can throw with weird feet, setups like not being aligned, multiple arm angles, and really control the football with that wrist action that baseball players
know all about. He threw a dart on a broken play from a three quarter release to Brian Robinson in the Seattle game that hit him on the upfield shoulder and turned into a huge play like one of a crazy throw. That was the first play I watched of this team. Shows the right guard sam coused Me not having a feel for the blitz, just let a cornerback
a cat blitz go in there unblocked. There was field pressure locks in on the two technique that easily could have been passed off to the center with him just sliding over to the be gap to pick up that cat blitz. The very next play, cat Cosme gets walked back into the lap of how then again on the next snap, it's just it's tough. It's tough inside at that right guard spot, and then they're slow off the edges.
So the entire right side in general, I think is vulnerable to games and action and speed and speed to power, And that's why I think this game serves as an opportunity for us to get a little bit of bounce back from JP's loss, because I think Andrew Van Ginkle could get himself in the backfield for a sack. This week I mentioned the forcing of some throws. He will lock into concepts and sort of ignore rotation, so I could see five, six, seven sacks in this game could
be a lot in this one. I think this is a game where you don't blitz a lot. Maybe some games an occasional third down, you know blitz, But Howel is capable of iding that and making you pay and getting it to his hot. I think you have to let occasional mistakes that he makes come to you because he will have them every game, regardless of pressure. But you can also speed it up and force more of those, I suppose, So it's a little bit give and take.
As always, this decision is trusted with coach Fangio, not me, so that's kind of how I take it. But to put a bow on all this, I don't think Washington has a quarterback problem at all. He does have some valleys, and the hope as you put him in one of those, typically by muddying it up and letting your rush get after him. He takes way too many sacks. He runs upright and high, will put the ball in precurious spots with the forced throws. But he is a big play
waiting to happen at all times. I love love their skill group. I projected is the seventh seed in the NFC back in September because of the skill group. For me, mclaurin's easily top ten one of the best technicians and route runners. I think that you either go ramsey on him or double at all times. I would not let
him get any other matchup. Besides that, we have to tackle exceptionally well in this game because Curtis Samuel can make big plays after the catch, Diami Brown can get down the field, and then Johan Dotson is a master as well. All that and Logan Thomas is a load too. They have man beaters, guys that can uncover quickly, and I think Miami's complex zones that bleed into each other would make a lot more sense here to prevent the chances of losing a one on one rep where you
could get beat for a big play. Because again they're so good with their five eligibles, I think you need cater Coohu to be at his best this week because he's gonna see some good matchups with Dotson, with Samuel, with McLaurin kicking inside. He'll see some quality receivers on the interior there, especially if you use him as a blitzer, because I think those cat blitzer from the slot could be really effective to kind of confuse the protection but
also get how to the ground. His time to throw is two point eight, which is middle of the pack. I thought I'd be higher than that, but it's still not anywhere near to is two point two, you know, and we praise their quarterbacks and wide receivers again, the offensive line is just rough it cause me looks like this the snap of leam Leickenberg and the splits in Buffalo often. I think Christian has a huge day. I think Gink has a huge day. I think Chubb can
get past the heavy footed Charles Leno. I think all three of those guys are gonna get sack production in this game. They split time with Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson, with Robinson very good lateral cut agility or ability and his big frame stresses one main thing. Just have gap discipline don't you know, collapse the backside because he can't
get to that backside on the ben back route. Also need linebackers to watch him in the passing game because he will get out wide and he is a load on the perimeter when he gets a full head of steam chuggin towards your defensive backs. And Antonio Gibson's kind of similar in the passing game, but he doesn't run guys over. He's just quick and shifty. But he's not been the same guy since a lot of injuries have
piled up over the last couple of years. I think they can score, but I always think we can turn them over, get a couple, put the ball back in our offensive hands, and I think you could turn this game into a boat race if you do that. What's at stake for your Miami Dolphins this weekend up in Washington a three game lead in the division if you
win the game, So go do that. Take a three game lead into September eleventh on Monday Night Football against the Titans, and the Bills lose the game against the Chiefs on that Sunday and you beat Tennessee, you are then a win over the Jets away from clinching the division the following week, so you can also catch Baltimore because they're off this week, and you surpass them with a superior conference record if you win because they're idle
this week. In fact, this week could play out a lot like last week, where you see the top spot in the conference for a few hours, so a win leap frogs you over Baltimore for the week. Then the Chiefs play the Sunday Night football game, and you know, come back on Thursday for picks, where I might be picking another Green Bay upset like we nailed on Thanksgiving. Maybe we'll see. Then the Jags are on Monday Night Football against the Bengals. Wish they had Burrow for that one.
So if they win, the worst case scenario is you're in the three spot, but really you're in a four way tie for spots one through four. The best case scenario is a win, Kansas City loses on Sunday Football, Jacksonville loses on Monday Night FOOTB and then you'd be tied for Baltimore for the top spot. But again we have the conference tiebreaker there, so you'd be number one
in the conference if that all fell your way. But I'm not counting on Jake Browning to beat Jacksonville, but I might be counting on Jordan Love to beat KC. Losing puts you at the bottom of the heap and kind of gives Bills the Bill's life, So don't do that. Technically speaking, this and the Dallas game in three weeks are the two least important games left. And I say that with air quotes because they're still vital. But it doesn't impact the tiebreakers, right, That's all I'm talking about here.
So the scale isn't a major slider of this week, just eight percent in terms of playoff odds. Look, this team's going to the playoffs. It's what it is. It's more about trying to get to the one seat at this point. But if you win, you make it really really tough for the Bills to see a path back into the divisional hunt. So, in fact, win this week and again beat them in week eighteen, if you just do those
two things, your division champions. Of course, we hope to lock it down well before that, but I think it's quality perspective on how close we are to seizing the AFCAS. That's you're a gray hat. Tony Sperano once said, my three keys to victory mide gate the Commander's interior pass rush. There is nothing off the edge. Everything's inside, but they have struggled. Just keep Pain and Alan at bay and you should have a lot of success offensively. Number two,
plaster when Sam Howell breaks the pocket. All of their big plays offensively, typically not all of them, but most of them come when he is able to get off structure and create plays after the facts. So don't let him do that. Plaster to your receivers down the field when he breaks, contain and hopefully you can get your rush after him, or he runs the ball and you can put a lick on him and make him fumble the football. Number three, get the play action game rolling.
I'm going after Cody Barton and Jamon Davis all game long, just like I went after the Chargers linebackers back in Week one to create some of those interior, middle of the field intermediate passing options to Tyreek and Jalen. Those are my three keys. Get the play action game rolling. Plaster when Howe breaks the pocket and contain the rush
of Pain and Alan. My areas of concern off script creativity from Hal and Robinson on the perimeter, plus the big playability from the skill guys areas to exploit poor interior pass protection, and the entire Washington defense. My prediction, I'm going twenty forty two to twenty four. I've got it at forty two seventeen with like two and a half to play, but they find the end zone in garbage time to make it look a little bit closer.
So I had been over on my last several Dolphins point projections, but I undersold our points on Friday for the first time in a while. I think Miami's gonna get back on track offensively this week and cut down the mistakes, cut on the take the turnovers, and get back to posting forty spots and being that offense that's like, WHOA, They're back. I think it's gonna happen at some point. I think it happens this week and next week and probably the following week two. So that's my prediction here.
When I watched this Washington defense again, same issues as the Chargers back in Week one. Tough game for the linebackers, no pass rush. I think you're gonna live on those fifteen twenty yard in breakers. I think you'll get some of the slow developing play action deep shots like the post routes or the chair concept with him running the deep over. Things of that nature, waddle and hill run those deep overs. I think we can make some plays
to get explosive degenerate points, especially playing catch up. The Commanders can so forty two seventeen Mike White in the game, they score late, make it forty two to twenty four. Me come back with four out of the last five at home at nine and three. That's my time before I got it here though. Just want to make a
quick mention of the Hard Knocks episode. I'll do a more in depth breakdown tomorrow on the show, but just want to go ahead and let JP Jalen Phillips know that we're thinking about it and we care about him. I know it's just a football injury, but like that was hard to watch man, heartbreaking to see him go through the entire moment there and the emotion that overcame him when he realized what exactly was ahead of him. Now with an achilles tear, so successful surgery for JP.
He'll be back better than ever. I know he will. We're thinking about Jaylen Phillips. That's my time for the Commander's Preview podcast tomorrow. JP Finley joins me to break down this Commander's team. We'll still try to figure out a Friday guest. I don't have that locked in yet, but as always, we'll have a variety show for you guys on Friday as well. In the meantime, that's going to be my time you all. Please be sure to subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever the
hell you get your podcast from. Go ahead and leave it a rating, leave us a review. You can follow me on social at Winkfield, NFL and the team at Miami Dolphins. You can catch me on the postgame show on five sixty and Big one O five FM, one O five nine FM, I should say, as well as the iHeartRadio app with OJ McDuffie and Seth Levitt. You can also find their podcast The Fish Tank here. The Great Olivier Vernon episode is up right now, go back
and check that out. Also the team YouTube channel for Media Availabilities and Dolphins Today, and last but not least, Miami Dolphins dot com. Until next time, Finza, Carolina, Cameron, Daddy just coming home.