Drive Time: Dolphins Colts Week 7 Preview

will find on your Miami Dolphins. From the Baptist Health Studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is the Draft Time Podcast. Lucas Oil Stadium for a one o'clock kickoff. Our next three games are at one o'clock. Five of the next six are at one o'clock. What a beautiful day that is for us that work the games and several hours after the games, it's gonna be in a dome, so no weather to talk about there. Let's go ahead and meet the Colts, who we have not seen since

twenty twenty one. We have not seen that building since twenty nineteen. Quick show of hands, who remembers the Colts.

live with. But here's an example. I was thinking about how content creators nowadays, like, Okay, So I fell asleep after the Bills kicked that field goal to go up twenty three to twenty the other night, Travis, wat's another sign that you are watched. You fall asleep watching football games now And so I came into work on Tuesday and wanted to see how the game ended because I knew the result, but I didn't know how we got there.

So I pulled up game pass, had the all twenty two the condensed file and the original broadcast copy were all one click away, and it reminded me how I used to rewatch games a long time ago. I'll never forget this. After my senior year of high school, which was five oh six, I was going into junior college and still living at home that upcoming fall semester in

two thousand and six. And I'm not even sure why it happened, but two thousand and five was when I went from what I would consider to be a casual Dolphins fan to completely obsessed. It was actually when I joined message boards and filled up a lot of my

free time. While people were playing Halo or maybe even working part time jobs, I was on message boards talking about the Dolphins and football, and two of my favorite games from that season were the opener against the Broncos, the one that I asked Mike mc daniel about in my first meeting with him back when he got hired in twenty twenty two, because that was his first NFL game as a ballboy or rather an assistant i should say, for the Broncos, and the Week three win over the Panthers.

Both of those teams would go on to play in the Championship games that year, and Miami be both of them in the first three games of the season. So I found this website that sold old Dolphins games and they were on VHS at the time. I don't think it was associated with the league in anyway, So I don't know how the guy was doing that legally because without the express britten concent of the National Football League.

But man, when I tell you that I went to the mailbox every single day for two weeks waiting for those VHS tapes to arrive, that's my old man way of saying.

for such a long time. It has since lessened for me, I think probably because of the most recent run of difficult years for them. You heard JJ Stankowitz on the show yesterday What a Name, by the way, mentioned this veteran quarterback hamster Will they've been on for the last half decade. Now, when you're changing quarterbacks every single year, you're probably not winning a lot of football games.

up and pass in the flat. And that was with Gardner Minshew go Koog's playing in fifteen of the seventeen games and starting thirteen of them. And I was a big Gardner Minshew coming out. He hasn't quite lived up to those expectations, but he is an NFL quarterback that probably is that fringe spot starter slash quality backup. The

last time they did make the playoffs. Well, it was actually the first or wait yeah, the first year that they were able to go get a veteran quarterback after Andrew Luck's shocking retirement, which, by the way, if you're into scripted podcasts, it's called Luck. It was an athletic production.

It's one of the best podcasts I've heard about the career and life of Andrew Luck and how injuries and Colt's decision making over years led to the most shocking retirement our league has seen since Ricky Williams, maybe even

Barry Sanders. But Phil Rivers was the quarterback that was there in twenty twenty for their last good season, and he damn near guided them in the first year of seven playoff teams with a seven seed to beat a two seed when they lost to Buffalo by three in the wild card round after the pandemic season, after they went eleven to five. Since then, it's been Carson Wentz eight that was kind of a miracle with him there, and then Matt Ryan four and twelve and one an

absolute disaster. Then Anthony Richardson with Gardner Minshew going nine to eight last year, the first under Shane Steiken, who has really earned his stripes as one of the top offensive innovators in all of football. They're a team largely built through the draft. They have studs like Quentin Nelson, Ryan Kelly, Braden Smith, Bernard Raymond, all draft picks up front.

And by the way, I keep seeing this on Twitter, the Colts are not going to trade Quentin Nelson, So shut up, like they're not going to trade that guy. They're in a playoff spot right now. Jonathan Taylor was a second round draft pick there. He's their their bell cow back. Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and of course Anthony Richardson on defense, Kenny Moore, Grover Stewart, Juju Brentz, Julian Blackman.

All those guys were draft picks on that defense. They have not been huge free agency buyers, but arguably their best player, and I would say he is their best player, was acquired via trade and DeForest Buckner, but he's been on the injury reserve since their first game and his eligible return this week. We'll find out more on him going as we go along throughout the course of this week. They're kind of difficult to peg. As far as the team.

I wouldn't say they're star laden, but they have a nice collection of talent, but also plenty of unproven parts that makes their future a little bit of a mystery, as is the case with every team, but just in terms of known quantities, they don't have a lot of them. Let's go ahead and get to the Colts offense here in their scheme. I mentioned Steichen as one of the

top innovators in the game. I think the thing that he does so well and creates easy throws for his quarterback while keeping things relatively simple where they get to the same core concepts, but they do it from different alignments, groupings, and presentations. And quite frankly, that's how Travis Winfield operated his online Madden teams. I ran with the same four plays and would just call hot routes and adjustments and shift the formations at the lion of scrimmage.

They're five of eleven under Flacco, but seven for ten with Richardson. They just find a way to push the ball over the goal line when they get down there. With Richardson in the game, and you can see how Ar and JT pair together so well with what Stykean wants to do, especially in that part of the field, and that's played tight condensed formations across multiple formations. They bring in so many tight ends and receivers in nasty

splits to add gaps in the running game. They create space to the perimeter and the vertical game.

me will be a very big deal. When I watch the Colts on tape, it reminds me of our offense in the sense that the structure and design does a really good job of showing multiple looks and keys for defenders to present that proverbial cheese and then hope to exploit the space created by the false steps and misreads of those players. They go this way seventy five percent eleven personnel. That's one back, one tight end, three receivers.

The rest of it is basically twelve personnel. Twenty one percent of the time they have one back, two tight ends, and two receivers. The remainder of that is thirteen personnel. Four percent of the time they don't have a full back. They never run two back sets, literally zero snaps in that. And they also have run just a single play without

a tight end of four receiver sets. So you're only going to get eleven personnel and twelve personnel and the occasional thirteen personnel look from this offense.

He said that Steichen has a great feel for what coverages he believes he will get for those calls based upon the percentages, so he has a good in game, game day feel for play calling. That's why I think the best way to attack it, well, it's always this way.

You just have to be multiple. And I think the best thing for the Dolphins, and the best thing they've done as a team this year is on defense with their ability to be multiple and how they marry their coverages in their fronts and present it in different ways.

And I think this defense, you know, sands a couple of big runs here and there has been dynamite and I think if the Colts fail to hit the big run, I think will be in great shape from a defensive standpoint, and that takes us into the first Big three or the first of the Big three against the Colts offense here and I just simply wrote down blitz and that's probably the most generic, basic take you'll get here on

the Drift Time podcast of all time. But I think when you consider the matchup of the Dolphins rushers versus a very good Colts line, I don't like the way that plays out for Miami and a quarterback that has struggled to play from the pocket so far in his whole career. I think the best thing you can do is to mix up your looks enough to play contain rush for don't try to go get him, let him come to you, and then send the extra rusher that speeds up his processor to then either a get home

and make the sack. That would be great, because if he escapes, that changes everything. But blitz him up the middle, rush contain outside, keep him in the pocket, make him play from there. You basically want to mirror and react to him. Don't try to go get him or b it forces the ball out of his hand without a clean base or an altered arm angle, and that's when the ball can get away from him. He has a very hirky, jerky motion that the ball just doesn't always

go in the same position. I think people bag on Richardson for the inaccurate throws that make all these reels on social media. I think there's actually a lot of examples on tape of him getting through the progression and making anticipatory throws. But Travis, the numbers are the numbers.

short chips. If you make it a little bit longer and make the backswing as much as the fall through, you won't have to like jerk it back down bunk. But if you just make it more smooth that way, you'll have the same ball strike and you'll finish better, and you'll get better contact and have a better stroke.

On your chipping games. Same thing when it comes to layering of football, Like if you're quick at the top of your release and then it's up, you know you have to speed up through the top of the process. The ball's gonna wane on you and go in different directions. So teams have blitzed Richardson just twelve times on his eighty seven dropbacks. It's fourteen percent. But he's completed one pass for two yards and thrown two picks on the ten throws. In those twelve drop backs, he got sacked

twice or scrambled twice, I should say. And PFF has him with a third turnover with a sorry, a fourth turnover worthy play in that grouping, which gives him a twenty five percent turnover worthy play rate. And while he has four picks when not blitzed, that's four turnover worthy plays out of seventy five dropbacks, just five percent. So his turnover worthy play rate increases times five when you blitz him. Go force the issue, especially when your offense

is playing like Miami's offense. He does have two scrambles in at three point three to three time to throw in those dropbacks takes them forever to see things and play it out. And one of those scrambles went for a first down, the other was for no gain. And he has not yet been sacked when he's when he's been blitzed. So that's why I do think you blitz him.

It creates it creates errors. And now all that said, you don't usually blitz to sack him again zero sacks, but the four sacks he has taken are when he's not being blitzed, and that's when you get good coverage and the feet stop, and that's when you can get all kinds of wonky throws. But I will caution beating this Colts offensive line with just four is going to

be a tall task for posterity. Flacco had been blitzed thirty percent of his drop backs and he's completely just fifty three percent of those with a four point three YPA. But two touchdowns and no picks. Not great, but that's

way better than Richardson. And I put this in here because you're likely going to see a backup rookie center in Tanner Borderlini and with a quarterback that has limited reps as a pro and collegiate, So focusing that protection scheme or trying to get after it can really generate some splash plays for your defense, which I think is exactly what you need to win this game without to a tongue by Low once again. So starting right guard, will Freeze is on the injury reserve. Ryan Kelly the

center might play. I tend to think that he won't. Braden Smith and Bernard Raymond are maybe the best tackle tannem and football right now off the edge, and then Quenton Nelson could be the best left guard in football. So with those tackles and absent JP and Chubb and Cam Good and Shaq Bartt and YadA, YadA, YadA, YadA, Galli, that's why I think you have to play rush contame. You're not gonna get a lot of one on one wins with you know, Ogbah and Chop and whoever else

is out there. Don't and Tyas Bowser, don't let fifteen get outside of you and go after Tanner, Bordolini and Dalton Tucker the backup guard and for Freeze and really force the issue on Richardson from the pocket. Let's go ahead and take our first break right there, come back and do big keys two and three for the Colts offense.

in the pocket. To kind of carry this over here and continue the theme here, I do think you can find your pressure inside because of those backups I mentioned, but also because of the skills of ninety two, ninety three, eleven, and twenty That of course is Seiler, Campbell, Long and Brooks in the middle, and that's where I see your impact type of players or plays to shut down this offense.

We know we love to flood those a gaps off the success of both Seiler and Campbell inside, and I sort of love the idea of sending a backer with regularity like I would consistently whether it's Chopp looping inside or Jordan Brooks or David Long, I just continuously put pressure on the interior and force him to just move side to side and wiggle because I want him to feel like he has to escape, but also stay within the pocket, if that makes sense, Like force him off

the spot within the pocket. And you can do that by winning your interior matchups and forcing the issue by bringing more rushers inside. And I continue to harp on this, do just play rush contain off the perimeter the entire game, and don't let him have escape lanes. I think if you just let him throw from the pocket, you can capitalize on the opportunities that have been provided by him.

He's played eleven career games, has eleven turnover worthy throws and six fumbles, so he puts the ball in harm's way one and a half times per game in his career.

down the field. He's nine for twenty in the intermediate game, and of those fourteen completions, nine of those came when he was outside the pocket, and per nfl jesus Gsis, that's five completions beyond ten yards from inside the pocket and five of fourteen of those nine misses, six of those passes were deemed off target. So he is scattershot when you get him kind of you know, in the pocket, but also like on the move. That makes sense again,

I think you get the point here, hemmiman. Make him play from with instructure and hope that his inconsistencies continue and you capitalize with the takeaways, and you can accomplish that in one other way, which is our third big key, force him to get his information after the snap. I don't want to make the entire section about Richard sim but I kind of feel like this game hinges on how he performs, and the Dolphins have some control over that.

Right now, Quarterbacks can get hot and they can play the level where you have to tip your cap and say you beat us today, sir, thank you very much. May have another or maybe it's an ordinary Richardson day where he doesn't play that well and you force him into two more mistakes than he usually does, and you capitalize on those and you get a big takeaway and a big shutdown of this Colts offense, and you get a big win. This is actually more of a compliment

than it sounds like. But I think he's like on his way to being a good processor. He's clearly not there yet. And again, I feel like a lot of his anticipatory throws come when he's broken contained outside the pocket. But I keep looking at these splits when he's blitzed and when he's not, and when he's pressured when he's not, or when it's covered up against a four man rush.

hell plays in this game. To force throws into traffic because he will anticipate and play with confidence and anticipation, and there's been a lot of bad picks as a result of that this year, Like when he's expecting, you know, one thing, cuts it loose, he gets something else and it turns into a room service pick.

but I think we match up well there. And the way Ramsey has really brilliantly disc guys a lot of his looks and wound up wiping out entire sides of the concept. If he can do that, I think you'll force some turnovers and ultimately win this football game. I didn't really get into Jonathan Taylor too much because we'll see if he goes, but man, he changes the entire

dynamic of that offense. In fact, they ran the ball forty five percent of the time when he's in there, and when he's not available just one third of the time they run the ball, and the results are quite the juxtaposition. They are five and eight over the last two plus seasons. When JT does not playing games, they might be the team with the biggest targets in the league, which also tracks for the red zone prowess and proclivity to run the football with added gaps in the way

they block on the perimeter. In the running game out there, Moley Cox and Andrew Ogletree tight ends one to two are massive. They both are like six foot five. Pittman is six foot four, Alex Pierce is six foot three, so get ready eighty Mitchell six foot four, so get ready for back shoulders can tested balls as well as a concerted effort the run blocking game off the perimeter. I just think Miami's gonna have a lot of chance to get picks in this game and they have to

make them. Let's go ahead and do a quick pivot here to the Colts defense. We'll take a break here in just a second, but talk about the scheme here. And it's Gus Bradley, and we know what that means. I've done several game previews that featured going up against Gus Bradley on this podcast. So for those of you that are right or Die, you've heard this before. He and Pete Carroll ushered in the era of Cover three

in Seattle with the Legion of Boom. But that's a lot easier when you have Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas and Cam Chancellor back there. He played it in Jacksonville with our very own Jaalen Ramsey. He took it with him to Vegas, and now it's here with the Colts each of the last three years, and this Colts defense has not finished inside the top twenty five and scoring defense with Gusta Fer Bradley. Nobody runs more Cover three

than the Colts at fifty eight percent. The natural changeup off of that, of course, is Cover one.

cover three teams. In fact, of the three teams that run more Cover three or that run Cover three more than half the time, they're one of them. They lead that group with eleven percent quarters coverage. They do not play zero. They literally don't play Only two teams have run less zero than they do. They typically play off soft and they like to play from light boxes. I imagine you will get a lot of buzzers to deal with the immediate cross or intermediate crossers we run and

all the deep overs we run. Interestingly enough, their EPA per play from cover three ranks twenty first, so their main coverage gets beat a lot. But they also have the best Cover one defense in football. Something to think about there with how they attack. And they also got Kenny Moore back last week, but Juju Brentz is still down. Sammy Womack has played really well, so there's some options there. I don't like any of those matchups with the Colt when it comes to Waddle and Tyreek.

also down a lot of key parts. I think the biggest injury question this week for this game is DeForest Buckner. McDaniel joked about facing him in practice for so long in San Francisco. They have really, really, really missed him in India this year. They just haven't had the size and strength and ability to hold blocks inside without him. Grover Stewart is a great player. I love watching him play, but he needs his running mate back. And then beyond that,

you guys heard JJ on the Wednesday show. Taekwon Lewis is a guy that we talked about as a free agent possibly coming here. A guy that I liked on tape, and he's a guy that they said, feels like you lost somebody at every position because he can play the one technique all the way out to the nine technique. They don't have their top guy, their top edge guy speaking of nine techniques in Samson Ebukom. They're still working Quitty payback into the fold. He returned on Sunday after

two games. That's also been impacting their pass rush. It's been a bottom five and pressure rate. Haven't had a sack in two games, and that lack of pressure makes it tough on that coverage to hold up, especially against the quarterback. That can create the best part for Miami.

If they're in those cover three looks or Cover one off and the rush cannot get in, Tyler can either take the man coverage and beat it that way, or he can, you know, find a way to get on the perimeter against a zone look that has peeled off and they're you know, fifteen yards down the field. Let's go ahead and do the first of my Big three. We'll take a break after that. The Big three versus the Indianapolis defense is to do exactly that attack the perimeter.

Just structurally, every defense has a spot that they're willing to, you know, kind of give up, right.

a little more. And when I look at this Colts defense, I look at a banged up front playing in one of two linebackers whose entire game is speed, so much so that one of their damn names is Speed, same as EJ.

this time and time again. The basis of this offense begins in wide zone and that outside running game, and the Patriots began to adjust. They started adding multiple force defenders of the equation where they would pull a second defender off the edge to ensure we could not win the edge in from those same cover one and Cover three looks. Go watch the film. On that final drive, you consistently got overplay off the edge, which created bang lanes.

Jalen Right and Rahe Moster. They both were able to effectively do that, and they try to jump outside and presume where a block was going, and Alec was so adept at adjusting on the fly, and the back would follow him. We get second level springs with really no resistance. I think you can get that again against the Colts

on Sunday. Get Grover Stewart rolling wide, get those linebackers overplaying the outside stuff that they have to win that way because they cannot get off blocks physically, and that can open everything else up inside and in the passing game. I think if the Dolphins get the ball on the edge a couple of times early successfully, the Colts are

going to be in trouble. I think it's another Alec and John Neu game in that sense, and then we should be able to see Devon a chan factor back in when it comes to those wide runs and screen game. I mean, if there's anybody in the league that's better show them, I don't think there is one. So that's

number one. Number two falls off of that. We're gonna take a quick break rate here, come back and talk about big things number two and three, what's at stake, keys of the game, and predict the game here on the Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation.

it is. And they ran play action the Tyreek side, and they got the vertical displacement on the hook linebacker that could have sunk back into that passing window, and he came up and bit on the run action and they threw that curl behind him against a post safety and an outside leverage cornerback that is taking candy from a baby that will never get defended against that look.

They earned that with the run game early on. Then I felt hitting that opened up the run game again later on in that drive as we saw them peel back into light box and split safety looks, and we just went to work getting a hat on a hat in the running game. You'll hear Moose Johnston on the podcast tomorrow talking about the difficult role that alec Ingold had within that game and how his execution of it

kind of got things going. I really think you'll see more of the same, or I guess could I should say I expect to Ron and Austin to have awesome games. I think Aaron Brewer, it's a tough matchup with Stuart size wise, but I think that he can get out wide are these linebackers and kind of force them into that overplay, and then the big guards Liam and Rob Jones can kind of clean it up from there. With all the tight end and fullbacks actions that we have

in this game. Every matchup here favors Miami, even if you don't understand how the offensive line's playing, and a lot of folks don't. And the guy that on Twitter doing all the or the YouTube channel doing all the videos talking about how me and Kyle are just selling copium, Like, no, dude, it's just football one on one.

it's right there for you. And the reason I bring it back to taking your shots, I think that you can influence the defense a little bit with that. And we saw this back in Week one versus the Jags. Now, the Colts have had a lot of communication breakdowns on the back end. Go look at the eighty five yard touchdown that Brian Thomas had against them two weeks ago

for that same Jags team. I think injuries and new pieces have a lot to do with that, but they're also busting coverages like two or three times a game that should be big touchdowns. And the reason I mentioned the Jacksonville game, they squatted on that quick game and robbed those crossers all day right then in the fourth quarter we hit them with two deep overs playing behind that glance in the quick game, they bite up, we

burn them over the top. It's an eighty yard touchdown on the tyreek hill, a sixty three yard play to wall that should have been a touchdown. But I digress. I think you can run the ball in this game. Then if you get the right call against the right look, you can re we discover your explosive passing game that has been so sorely missed. Even if it's just once, it can change a game. Kenny Moore is back and he's awesome. He's in the slot, keeping on him. He

also plays outside when they're in their base packages. Julian Blackman has been a good player for a long time, but he likes to play downhill and he plays in that single high role like I think his game is more tackling the hitting guys and then that's all safety knit Crossed knows. He leads them and stops beyond those two top linebackers Zaire Franklin and EJ.

rushing attack man. If we just stay out of those first and fifteens, in those second and twenties, I think we could control this game. Hopefully the byeweight cleans it up, because it has been worse this year than ever before, and it has to be better to win on the road, especially without two a tongue by Lowa. Some additional parts here. I didn't mention Layat two Lattu. He's not been good, guys. Thirteen pressures, one hundred and thirty pass rush reps has

just one sack. He'll get there, but he's not winning one on one matchups right now. It's just a slow start for the rookie. I mentioned Quidy pay and Deo Adebengo, got that wrong. They're both guys that can kind of play off the edge in the running game, so have to find a way to get them moved. I did forget to mention Tave and Bryan in the defensive tackle portion because he's that forgettable. It's basically Raekwon Davis, and that's who Davis gives snaps to. So that's your competition

on the inside. Two guys that were relatively high draft picks that have made like four plays in their career combined. Get after those guys. What's at stake kind of everything, right, I think the divisions out of reach already. Personally, I don't think we're good enough to beat Buffalo. I think

we're gonna get split by them again. I think the Bills will eventually run away with things here in the AFC East, And if you fall behind the Colts by two games and the standings with the head to head loss, that could be tough to overcome, and the wild card standings and the Jets are reeling, the Bills are within reach. I still don't think it's doable, but from a wildcard standpoint a conference game against a middling team with a quarterback. With quarterback one for us on the horizon. I think

this is sort of an inflection point game. A win here could change everything. A loss here, you're gonna get more of what Travis was the last couple weeks in the podcast. Win this one with really one of the next five games coming up as a tall order like Buffalo, because you have Arizona, the Rams, the Raiders, and the Patriots. Win this one, win four of those five. We're talking about a seven and four football team heading to Thanksgiving.

soft coverage on the outside. Attack their inability to stop the run that way, force overplay, and then hit inside. My range of outcomes and prediction. I think it's very widespread. I think the Dolphins will win if both Buckner and JT are down. If both are or even one is up, I'm taking Indianapolis. I think it will be an ugly game.

What else should we expect? I can't forecast Miami being anything but disjointed on offense in a road environment until they show us otherwise, and without QB one, you know, I'll say, if they get those guys back and Richardson finds a rhythm, this game will get ugly. So I think it could be an Indie blowout, but I think it could be a close Dolphins win. I think it lands somewhere in the middle there. And before my prediction here,

injury report just came out. So man, the Colts dnps were Josh Downs, Ryan Kelly, Deo Odegnobo, I can't say it. Michael Pittman, Braden Smith, E J. Speed, and Jonathan Taylor all did not practice today. So Chris Lamon's on thore too. That's a fourth cornerback, So not looking good for them off the top. We'll see what Thursday's injury report looks like, but Wednesdays is very much in the Dolphins favor for Posterius.

We do the Dolphins as well. Tarn and Campbell didn't practice. Holland, Moe, David Long, Ogbaugh and Poyer were limited, and then eight Chan, Cam Smith, and Skyler were all full participants. I think we'll get the takeaways. I think we'll make the same mistakes on offense. I think our run game will get us field goals. So I'll take a Colts win twenty to thirteen. But if both Buckner and JT are down, I'll go Dolphins seventeen sixteen. That's the Prediction podcast. That

is my time today. Tomorrow, Moose Johnston and Kyle Krabs joined me for a loaded podcast. You don't want to miss that one. We'll have the recap show for you on Sunday as well as the postgame show, a set and juice. Plenty of content coming away. Hopefully this is the start of a nice winning streak for your Miami Dolphins. Until next time, you all, please be sure to subscribe to the podcast, leave us a rating.