Drive Time: Dolphins Chiefs Wildcard Playoffs Preview

game and your Dolphins are in it. We'll do our eighteenth game preview of the season by looking at the matchups, the game by the numbers, and a whole heck of a lot more. From the Baptist Health Studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is the Draft Time Podcast. Maybe gaff so I've been looking at these weather reports and start the podcast with these weather reports on the

show for these last several game previews. Don't really do it in October and November as much as September and January and December. But it is January, and since we are within the extremes of climate change, going from fifty degree to temperatures just a couple of weeks ago to now negative degree temperatures. Fun times we live in. But I think this is the most apt week to talk

about weather. As of this recording, I'm seeing four degrees it's expected temperature with wind chill and the negative temperatures and gusts up to thirty miles per hour. Some chance of snow, but that's not until after midnight, but that can change and shift and arrive early, right. I'm not really sure how weather works like at all, but I know in the past I've I've had golf plans on a Saturday and it was supposed to rain on Saturday and the rain didn't come until Sunday, or maybe it

got there on Friday. That happens, I think. I'm not sure. Did you guys like the new intro by the way, I thought it was pretty cool. Made that myself. I'm not sure if you need much of an intro on the Chiefs. You know who they are and where they've been. So let's go ahead and do a cliffs notes version

of this portion of the podcast. So Patrick Mahomes is their quarterback, two time MVP, two time Super Bowl champion, and really one of the biggest unicorns to come into the NFL in the Last Ever in the Last forever. He was drafted in twenty seventeen and only started the season finale with the Chiefs when they were locked into a playoff position. That year, that team won ten games and lost in the wild card round, and that was

the last time you could say that about them. They've won twelve, twelve, fourteen, twelve, and fourteen games under Mahomes until they're eleven and six mark this year. Eleven and six down year. It must be nice, right, They've gone ten and three in the playoffs playoffs during that time. There isn't a franchise that would not take ten and three to start their regular season, and they've done that against the league's best teams year in and year out.

In the postseason. Their loss is coming to the Brady led Bucks in the Super Bowl, the Burrow led Bengals when they were red hot to close out twenty twenty one, and the Brady led Patriots in overtime of that legendary AFC Championship game back in twenty nineteen. That's it for playoff losses. Hopefully Miami twenty twenty three gets add to that list. Mahomes is the constant, so is Travis Kelcey, who was picked back in twenty fifteen and is one of the greatest tight ends in the history of the

National Football League. Probably maybe I'm still taking Gronkowski, I think, and you know I'm from the Gates in Gonzales era, Jimmy Graham, so those guys have a say as well. But Kelsey's right up there right. He leads He marks with receivers in the receiving category every single year up until this year. And that's probably something you can attach back to the Chiefs struggles this year is the fact that Kelsey hasn't had a Travis Kelcey year. Now again,

it's changed, it's changed a lot. This year. They won their lowest amount of games in the Mahomes era. The eleventh win was with Blaine Gabbert edging out East and Stick last week over the Chargers. Damn it, Chargers. If you could have won that freaking game against Buffalo and none of the crap would have happened. We'll talk about

the regression, and I use that with air quotes. Imagine winning eleven games being a regression, right, But we'll talk about that in the matchup breakdown, So we'll also cover this in the matchup portion. Replacing Tyreek Hill has proven to be a bit of a challenge for the Chiefs, they've used more receivers with like significant workloads than anybody else in the National Football League because why they don't really have a top dog, or at least they didn't

until Rashi Rice became that. But beyond that, they're still in search of their two and their three and they're like one, two to the three to the four. Like it's it's a challenge for this team. Last year they won the Super Bowl, So like, I guess it's ridiculous to question their process, right, but I still wouldn't have

traded Tyreek Hill. But the storyline around the Chiefs this year has been the wide receivers who lead the NFL and drops by Like I think that I saw a stat they had like forty something drops going into last week and Larry Fitzgerald dropped twenty six passes in his career. What they just don't create the same separation they did in the past. Weird how when you lose Tyreek Hill,

you don't have separators anymore. Separators separators, and they don't give Mahomes the easy solutions that help keep drives on schedule and generate those situations where he can create and be superman. He still does that, but it's so much fewer and far between because they're often behind the chains and bad positions and they're just not making plays for him. I mean, Marquez Valdez Scantling has been a bust of

a free agent signing. Sky Moore's on IR, but he's a second round pick who has not worked out at all. They went out and got Kadarius Tony in a trade last year. It's been a disaster. Justin Watson, you know, nice player, I guess, but talking about limited skill sets. And then Rashi Rice, you know, I think I think the world of that guy. He's that catch he made on the Chiefs long touchdown drive they did in the first half back in Germany. It was like a third

and five or whatever. It was, back up on their own goal line and he makes a diving catch on a speed out that was, besides the Tygreek fumble, to me, the biggest play in the game as far as the difference of the game. Mcole Hardman is back off IR. He left to the Jets and came back because you go to the Jets, you always leave because things don't happen positively there. Anyway. The entire group was acquired within

the last two years for Kansas City the line. The offensive line in a league where there is no stability on the offensive line pretty much league wide, has been the stabilizing force. Juwan Taylor brought into replace Orlando Brown. Hasn't been great, but he's you know, he's a name. Donovan Smith is in it left tackle for Andrew Wiley, who also exited a free agency and he has been injured as of late, and Janya Morris, his backup, was

filling in not so well. But Smith is supposed to come back for this game with Janya Morris in concussion protocol, so something to keep an eye on. And we have street free agents right now. They're gonna play significant reps of that position. But if something happens to Smith and Morris isn't available, they're getting very deep into that position as well. So it's interesting, but they know they can survive the pass rush losses off the edge even despite

their investment into the position. Right Like Taylor was a big acquisition, Donovan Smith is not that. But they didn't re sign Wiley or Brown for those reasons. And I think the reason is because they know that if they keep the interior pocket clean Mahomes' creativity and the eyes in the back of the head and the feel and just the overall balance and scramble ability and ability to

keep your eyes downfield while navigating the rush. That's where you can afford to be a little bit softer when you have a trio inside of Tony, Humphrey and Smith. It's the best in the National Football League now defensively, and this is where it gets really interesting, crazy right, because they have a Hall of Fame quarterback, a Hall of Fame coach, and a Hall of Fame tight end. And defense is where it gets interesting. In my best

Al Michael's voice, go figure. But they never had a air quotes good defense during all that success we just talked about. It was always a potentially fatal flaw as we like to call them heading into the postseason. They never ranked better than sixteenth in defensive EPA during that ten to three playoff record and their average of thirteen wins per year. But now the defense is more efficient than the offense, and it starts with Chris Jones, an

absolute beast. They supplemented him upfront with two lengthy, strong edges in George Carl loftis last year's first round pick and Charles Amenehu, a nice free agent acquisition this offseason. They also drafted another edge in the first round this year and Felix and aduque Uzama, who hasn't played much but he's got skills inside with Chris Jones another draft pick, with Derek Nandi who's a great freaking player. They're just really,

really good upfront. Nick Bolton was a recent draft hit of theirs in twenty twenty one as the green dot in the middle of the defense. They also brought in Drew Trankwill who is probably better this spring. They're so deep in that good spot. And what have teams done to disrupt the Dolphins offense the last few weeks? It's been stout interior linebacker play. And how did the Bills replace Matt Malono? Man like Terrell Bernard's freaking just as good as he is and Tyrrel Dotson left that game,

but he was playing pretty well too. Roquan Smith and Pressure Queen frustrating. Man, gosh, we should win the division. But they also added a very good cornerback in Trent McDuffie no relation to Oj McDuffie. They found former WSU star Jalen Watson as the UDFA last year. They signed Justin Reid last year and developed a fourth rounder and Lugerious Snead into one of the best cover corners of

the National Football League. So they are an example of retaining a few core parts from teams of old and then hitting on key draft picks and free agents to cobble together in impressive unit, something Miami I think will have to do over the next couple of draft classes as well as I could very well see a run at back scenario where you just drop in your draft classes, which I would be very much in favor of. Anyway, Andy Reid still at the controls, no more Eric b Enemy,

Matt Naggy as back as OC. Maybe maybe Eric Bamy had more than we thought Steve Spagnolo in his fifth year as DC cooking up all those blitzes. So they've really built a team to his vision on that side of the football, and the continuity I think shows while offensively, the lack of such continuity on offense has caused for a down year for them. They look disjointed at times, and I would ever doubt them to get it right.

But I just don't think it's gonna be humming in this like we're used to seeing, which opens an opportunity for Miami. Right, let's go ahead and talk about the storylines heading into this critical. I mean we talked about critical in the regular season. What's more critical than loser out games? I mean, this is what must win games actually are, right, and the storylines are, Well, you're one to five against winning teams this year. You can buck that trend. You can buck the narrative with a win

this weekend. I think if you go to Baltimore and get waxed again, maybe that opens up some conversations. But I'm telling you what right now, man, it's gonna be a long seven months no matter what happens, unless you are hoisting the Lombardi in Las Vegas. I think, just because of the expectations this year and the Nick Saban quote, man that I've I'm as guilty as anybody about this, and I think I've learned my lesson finally, Expectation is

the thief of joy. Right cause I was having a lot of fun telling people this team might go to the super Bowl this year, they're that good, and then you lose half your damn rostered injuries and you don't get to go to the super Bowl. But having those expectations in a league, in a sport where anything can happen in any week, that can take those expectations and crumble them up in your hand like a piece of

rock that turns rubble. It's not smart to have those lofty, long term expectations when you know that just each week is what you have to get done. It's fun to talk about for podcasts and stuff, but don't buy in because anything can change. And for the Miami Dolphins, what

can change? And how cool would it be? And maybe this would be a fun hard knocks storyline to follow that you could potentially rematch all the teams you lost to in the regular season and beat them all in the playoffs on the road, no less, in implement weather. Is it going to happen? The odds are against you, but you're one and five this year against winning teams. Get it going this week. Go beat the Chiefs. They are vulnerable. That's the biggest storylines to me in this game.

The other one is that's going to be the coldest game in our franchise history and their franchise too, for that matter. It's supposed to be negative degree temperatures. How does Miami handle it? We shall find out. Adversity is an opportunity, right. I know some of you guys are tired of hearing that, but I think that if you want to be authent authentic to yourself as a coach and genuine and reflect to your players in a way that impacts them, you have to be yourself every time.

And that's what coaches entire ethos is built upon. So dog it all you want, but it's not. It's not fu gazy, it's not nonsense, it's not bs. It is his entire being and that's what this team is built upon, and that's what the roster's built upon. You know. It's funny in a year that all I wanted this whole year was for the first time in fifteen years, and even that quarterback like you need to talk about limitations,

Chad Pennington, good player, but man, limitations. All I wanted for the first time in fifty years was for the starting QB to start a playoff game. And now we're the most injured team in the NFL. Go figure, can you overcome it? You almost did in the Buffalo game last year. Dam near overcame an offense that couldn't drive the ball more than forty yards and eat on a possession in that game, and you had to go ironically forty yards to go win it. But either way, the

Tyreek reunion, we do get the reunion. After all, after all the talk this offseason about how we weren' going to see him back at Arrowhead, Now you do get it. And don't forget Immanuel Ogbaugh won a Super Bowl there as well, and Melvin Ingram played there as well. Oh and Justin Houston did too, all the old heads. And then finally, the last storyline I have here is just the interesting nature with how these offenses were built and

constructed and complete opposite molds. This is not apples to apples because Mahomes is on that second contract and Tua is gonna get that soon. But that's me speculating. I don't know anything. But you've seen these two teams attack the structure of the offense entirely different. After Case lost the Super Bowl in twenty twenty, where they were just decimated on the offensive line with injuries. It happened sometimes, guys, Sometimes it happens. They went out in inked Joe Tuney

to the biggest guard deal ever. They later signed Orlando Brown and have since moved on in inc Juwan Taylor to a similarly massive deal. They hit home runs on Humphrey and Smith in the draft, while Miami, on the other hand, well, they have invested plenty in the offensive line of their own, with big deals for Tistet and

Connor Williams. A first rounder on Austin Jackson, a second rounder on Rob hunt Liam a second round pick Isaiah win Wance a first rounder, not a big investment, but his one year dealan fregency to come here formerly of a first round draft pick. We know about the famed

McDaniel seven hundred play clip for Tua. Let's surround this quarterback with weapons to maximize the processing and accuracy, but also his ability to get the football out quick, which helps an offensive line for ten to fifteen snaps a game to basically not take the rep off but kind of take the rep off. I think it's just an interesting dichotomy there as these two teams get set to face off. So before we turn the page to the offense and defensive matchups, let's go ahead and revisit the

game back in November. So Miami had twenty first downs to the Kansas City sixteen first downs in that game, we outgained them two ninety t Q to two sixty seven. And I put on Twitter after that loss that the Dolphins had gotten better in the big games despite losses, and so they outplayed Kansas City and got greeted with some backlash to that. I mean, they now gained them. What are you talking about? The turnover battles even won a piece, they scored theirs. That's the difference in the game.

And the time the possession was also dead, even just about by twenty three seconds or something like that. So TUA in that game saw the highest amount of blitzing this year against anybody, thirteen times thirty four percent, which is right on track with Steve Spagnolo's blitzing percentage, and it's about thirty percent more than what two A typically sees.

And I asked coach McDaniel about this in his Wednesday press conference, and he talked about how blitzing typically generates a big play on offense or on defense, and how he says he kind of hopes they do blitz because there's opportunities for that and that's where two atypically shines, right. But also they are so well coached they can also generate negative players in their own right. It's a fun balance. Now. We blitzed Mahomes seventeen times. He went thirteen for sixteen

with eighty eight yards, a touchdown, one sack. We pressured him eleven times and he was two for eight with a fumble in eight yards passing. So Wilkins and see there, man, let's go. Kelsey saw just three targets, clearly a focal point for US. Jalen Ramsey saw some of those reps as well. Those came against Gink one and Elliott two and they caught them both, all three of them for fourteen yards. If you do that in this one, I think it won the game. Rashee Rice caught two of

two targets, both of those against Kohu. But he has really emerged out, so that might change the way that you play it. Hill drew McDuffie on six of his ten targets, six for forty five. Hey, can we get a big Tyreek game? Maybe? Please? Waddle got a healthy mix of everybody in coverage. Their run game went twenty four for ninety three. They want to run it inside. Twelve of their twenty four runs we're in the A gaps where they got twelve rushes for fifty nine yards.

Our run game, on the other hand, twenty one for one seventeen. We had lots of success running right at their top rushers, seven for sixty three going at gaps man by Chris Jones and five for fifty three going at gaps controlled by George Carl Loftis. Carl Loftis did get five pressures, while Jones, Amenahu and Dana all had two each caught and allowed four. He's not gonna play. Rob Jones had two and that was with Connor healthy.

So that was the old one of the seventeen offensive line combations we had in Liam played eight snaps and relief in that game, but t Staid and Jackson one pressure allowed each, so they did a good job keeping the perimeter pressure to a minimum. Sealer and Wilkins both had four and two pressures alike, and said JP had four and Chubb had two in that game, which we had those guys. If we had those guys, I would be predicting a blow ut victory. But we don't. So

there's that. Let's go ahead and take our last break rate there. Come back on the other side and do Dolphins offense versus Chiefs see Chefs defense. That's next Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation. So we dug into the matchups a little bit on that side of the podcast. There, Let's go ahead and get even deeper into Dolphins offense versus Chiefs defense. And a little bit of a change here from last time.

They will not have Brian Cook in this game, which is kind of a big deal because they like to run a lot of defensive back oriented packages and they'll blitze those guys and they'll move them around, the'll this guy's coverages. And without Brian Cook, that changes a little bit. On the back end. They do still have Justin Reid w's a hell of a football player, Mike Edwards, and then Chamari Connor is the new third safety, the dime safety they bring into the field in a twenty four

percent dime defense that they run. They run six defensive backs more than any other team in the National Football League. The other corners, Lugerius need never leaves the field. He's a phenomenal player. And then Jalen Watson plays about thirty four percent of the snaps on the perimeter, but inside

Trent McDuffie will travel in there. So if you get McDuffie, like he matched up sometimes one on one versus either Tyreek or Waddell in that last game, and I mean, you gotta win those he's a good player, but Tyrek and Watta, you've gotta win those matchups, So he plays inside. Chamarai Connor plays some slot as well. Up front, Chris Jones has increased his rep count and since the last game by like twenty percent. He's up to like sixty eight percent after his holdout and getting back into the

flow of things. Derek Nandy forty six percent, Tray Shawn Wharton thirty seven percent. Loftus plays seventy percent off the edge, well a Menu who plays thirty seven but he missed a chunk of the year, so he's kind of the

other starting edge. But Mike Dana, their third kind of nickel pass rusher, comes into the game and he's a pretty good player to sixty eight percent of the workload for him, and then the rookie Fau twenty percent at linebacker, Nick Bolton missed a bunch of the season on IR he played forty percent of their snaps, train Quill sixty six percent of the snaps, and Willie Gay sixty percent,

so it's a really good defense man. They essentially used the Tyreek Hill trade to get reinforcements with Carl loftis with excuse me, Trent m Trent McDuffie, Yeah, jeez, get there, Travis. They've they've just done a good job building this thing around. These guys go out and signed Drew train Quill as well, So McDuffie never leaves the field when they go nickel. He kicks inside and then of course Brian Cook is down.

They were banged up at linebacker last time, but both Nick Bolton and Willie Gay or back, so that was kind of an area to attack. I thought in the last game. Not so much. Here I mentioned twenty four percent dime. That is almost their same number of base downs forty three. Defense is twenty nine percent, and they're

in the nickel for forty five percent. They want to play out of those heavy defensive back packages and win one on ones up front, butch you with dbs with different linebackers and just find ways to make the picture change. So it's a very big game for two of them to get through his stuff, to get through his mental check notes, checklist, and just be sharp. It's up to the quarterback man. And we just saw a defense that operates heavily out of dime, so maybe there's some benefit

there to that. And the Ravens do as well. So Miami's kind of gotten three somewhat similar schemes the last three weeks, although the blitzing is vastly different. But the Chiefs roll out Cover one thirty six percent of the time.

But what's weird about that is Cover three is typically the kind of offshoot of that, but they go to their Cover two package the next most at twenty one percent, a rare pairing, but part of that comes from the dime packages with three safeties, and frankly, they'll play three high looks, they'll play birds on a fence. They'll bring down their slot and cap him and blitz him like there's a lot they do. That's why you have to

get the run game going. Your use of motion crack wham action on the interior to neutralize Cris Jones could be a key here. And then when they want to commit those extra blitzes inside you could really work against some of that leverage they create inherently with some one gap penetration with the screen game, the outside run game, that little fake handoff flip reverse pivot against the backside flow.

That's the big key here. Marry your run game and screen game in order to open up the middle of the field, to exploit that portion of the field with vertical stretch, because if you get into third lungs, gosh, it plays right into their hands and their ability to disguise their blitzer from dB heavy personnel groupings, and it puts pressure on you before the routes can develop, and it can create splash plays like the one that won in the game in Germany. Without that fumble six, there's

no way the Dolphins don't win that game. You cannot convince me otherwise. So they can get after you with pressure packages, or they can win one on one. These pressure numbers are ridiculous. Man, Carloftis has sixty four off the edge. He's topped only by Chris Jones who has seventy on the interior. That's an all pro production right there. He had thirty coming into our game. So he has forty in the second half of the season. My gosh, Monster Dana has forty one pressures a Mena who has

twenty nine. They're a good pass rushing team, man. Before I move to the back end, they are the thirtieth ranked run defense in EPA and the third ranked pass defense. Last time we didn't have a Chan, and that to me feels like an answer to some of these blitzes, some of these hots, some of these quicks like get the ball out to him, flip it, throw it, double

pass it, whatever you gotta do. And I just think the eight Chan is something special that hopefully we see more of this January, but if not, for sure by next year he's gonna be probably a fifteen hundred yard rusher if he stays healthy for a full year. You might need to see him hit some of those big runs in this game. And he does it every week he plays, so it's there for you, and that would get them out of what they do best, the league high nine point two percent sack rate. They blitzed, They

blitz they blitzed some more. Not to mention the package they've had the hardest time defending this year in terms of their production is twenty one personnel, and nobody runs more twenty one personnel than your Miami Dolphins, whether it's with alec Ingold or with two running backs with Moster and eight chan back there. So how about the key

cover guys, Snead, McDuffie, Reid. They almost never leave the field, Brian Cook is down and they use that heavy dime package to get a little bit deeper with Chamari Connor in that role. And we've seen Wattle, you know who's gonna play in this game, really exploit the middle of the field against zones and to be a quick release option for Tua. And quite frankly right now, I'm trusting Wattle to make more catches than Tyreek in tough situations

because that's what's been proven. And if he and if he does play, which I think he will, I could see Wattle getting minimal attention if they can bind one attention to Tyreek. Two. They blitzed Tua thirty one percent of the time, right that's seventh most in the NFL, and nobody blitz to him more than what they did.

The Bills blitzed him once. We saw Wink Martin Dell blitz him twenty five percent of his usual amount Against the Giants back in week five six five, the Chiefs blitz to A thirteen times and he went eight for eleven with sixty six yards. They did get two of their three sacks on that, which is a good win for them. Of thirteen dropbacks, we only gained sixty six yards and had some losses in there as well. But even still, Tua is so damn good at finding is

hot going to muddy the picture. They're going to keep it looking the same then change it post snap. But man, I'm so confident in too his ability to process and manipulate and bounce back in this one, I just think we're gonna get a very good too a game. That's my expectation here. And speaking of blitzing, this is a big game for Raheem most or if he can go, I think he will in pass pro as the release valve and the running game, all of it. We need prime Raheem to give us that balance and keep the

offense humming. And again it's going to be those young linebackers matching up on a kg vet. So for Raheem to find a way to beat those guys, big matchup, it's a fun matchup across the board. Can Miami neutralize the edge the way they have most of the year and get Karl Loftus out of the box score? Can

they prevent Chris Jones from wrecking the game? If they can get those two things done, I think they can give the scoreboard some love and run the points up to a reasonable number that gives them a let's take a chance of winning the football game. But you also have to get your stops on the other side of the ball, and we'll do that next here on the Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you

by Auto Nation. We did Dolphins offense Chiefs defense, which to me is kind of the marquee matchup in this game. Let's go ahead and finish up here on the other side with Dolphins defense versus Chiefs offense. And you know what, Patrick Mahomes, he is the all time quarterback. He never leaves the field. There with Rice has had a major uptick in usage fifty five percent. He was at twenty percent last time these two teams played. But Valdez Scantleen

plays over half the snaps. Justin Watson plays forty seven percent of the snaps. I mean Kadarius Tony twenty five percent. Like it's just not a good room. And that's why I think there's an opportunity here from Miami to despite the injuries, play pretty well on defense now. Travis Kelsey plays sixty nine percent, Noah Gray plays sixty percent, and Blake Bell plays twenty five percent. So they use the

three ten end package quite frequently. Up front, we talked about the offensive line, you know about those guys put Checko fifty percent on the workload. In the backfield, they're not going to have Jack McKinnon, so Clyde Edwards Lair, who played twenty percent of the snaps, will be running running back number two. They don't have an exclusive slot.

They use guys all over the field. They have so many guys that have like specialty roles they're supposed to fulfill, like screen game and the round game, jet sweet, vertical, top off guy. Like they have ten players who have a twenty five percent usage or greater in the slot and nobody over sixty percent besides the tight ends, Like it's it's a weird balance they have over there. No McKinnon,

no Sky Moore. They run sixty two percent of their offense out of eleven personnel, that's of course one back, one tight end, three receivers, one back, two tight ends. Twelve is twenty seven percent of the time, So that gets your base defense on the field quite a lot. From Miami, we'll see how they react to that. And then thirteen personnel, which is won back three tight ends is ten percent, so they want to go heavy a

lot and try to run the football. There is one sure fire way to limit the Chiefs production offensively, and it's hardly a mystery. Find Taylor Swift right, no, Travis Kelsey and disrupt him. He's the most unique player I've ever studied ever. Like, do you guys remember that clip.

I think it was before we played them when the Chargers rookie had asked him like if you had any advice for a rookie, and they shook hands on the field after the game and Kelsey said, understand the other side of the ball as well as you understand your own, and damn it, that's the entire key to his game. He loves to run to space regardless of his route. You'll see a pretty common concept start to unfold and then he just checks up like he'll turn over the

wrong shoulder and intentionally. His spatial awareness is what I would say is the best of all time. Is that too much? Maybe Wes Welker was better, but those are the top two for me. You've got to find ways to minimize what he produces. This is a Holland and Ramsey thing. You had both these guys in this game last time, and that's a big part of why I

think they shut the Chiefs down offensively. And if it isn't them, it's gonna be help Cater with Deshaun Cater with Holland Cater with a lot like constant help on eighty seven. Do not if if you hold Kelsey to fourteen yards again, you're gonna win this game like' That's how I feel about it. And even if you're one on one with him, I'd plan to have eyes or a search or a rat on him because that's going to be where this Casey offense gets moving if they

can find Kelsey offscript. But as we learned from Mike McDaniel, if you take something away, it opens something else up, right, So we'll see and Mahomes is not at all shy about peppering other players when Kelsey commands the attention. But if you go back even to the Alex Smith days and all those great matchups versus the Patriots, Belichick would meg that thing man everywhere he goes the zone everywhere else?

Do you do that? Here? We reference Kelsey versus Ramsey, right, there's more historical evidence to how teams have played this guy. And even with Ramsey himself versus the Chiefs. The Rams and Chiefs played back in twenty twenty two, and Ramsey shadowed Kelsey nearly the whole game. Eighty four percent of his routes came against Jalen Ramsey three targets in one catch. Now, it wasn't explosive, a thirty nine yard touchdown, but guess

what one of those incompletions was a pick. If you tell me right now that Ramsey shadows Kelsey and he scores once, gains thirty nine yards and gets picked off, I think the Dolphins will win this game. I do. How about elsewhere? I just don't think it's that good. Mvs is a big body. Ex Cadarius Tony will align everywhere and they try to manufacture for him, same way they did sky More. But he didn't work out this

year either. But it's been such a struggle for those guys to develop a deep connection on anything beyond like ten yard throws. Justin Watson, I mean, who can I compare Justin Watson to like a less athletic Devonte Parker. Maybe I don't know. And then me Coole Hardman is like jakeem Grant two point zero basically. So that's the guys that I, you know, don't really think command a bunch of attention. But Rashie Rice is the guy that I would, I would really besides Kelsey look out for.

He's their best route wunner. He's the most sure handed, he has the most big plight potential than the rest of the receiving corps has combined. Really, i'd say your priorities are Kelsey Kelsey again, and then a mix between Rice and Pacheco the running back. One thing you have to accept is they're gonna scheme open some wins, especially coming off the bye week. Andy Reid's a genius. There's

no way around that. They get RPO layups that are just taking the vacancy with Mahomes's unique skill set off of those zone read RPO looks, So they find ways to get those hits, but if they miss them, you have to capitalize and get off the field. That for the fact. But they're gonna find ways to get RPOs horizontal stretch and get themselves some easy layup throws for

some yardage. So you live with those. But like I said, there's lots of chaos ball there and when Patrick moves around and makes plays from the move, like rush lane, integrity is vital. We had such a good job doing it, not just against the Chiefs back in Germany, but last week against the Buffalo Bills too. Like some of those plays where Alan tried to get out, Miami had him pinned in there. I don't think you can bank on

constant pressure because he just gets away from it. And the interior offensive line so good and then Mahomes, you know, mitigating that pressure as well. But if there's one area they struggle to protect, it's off tackle. But we've also been thin there as well, so it's like ah damn. Other pass block efficiency scores are ninety five point four for the left tackle Smith That is not good, and if he's not available to go, neither is the backup.

But inside it's ninety seven five, ninety eight six ninety seven four for the three guys in there. That's very good for all three of them, and then Taylor's ninety six point two, which also isn't that great. It'll be interesting to see where my mindven get their wins up front, because I don't bet against ninety ninety two ever on the interior, but they're just so good inside. I think the big key for those guys is to keep second

level climbers from attaching to Long and Duke. And that's where I thought that Wilkins and Sealer were the best, you know, really all all year long, was keeping those bodies off the linebackers at the second level. I do think it's a David Long game because I'm not sure the Chiefs want to go run game defense this time of year for two reasons, the weather and their struggles in the passing game, but not just for the run

game for Long and for Duke. But Mahomes is not a designed quarterback run guy, but he scrambles as smart as anyone in that he attacks the line of scrimmage looking to throw and then falls into the scramble position or scramble opportunity as a secondary option. All year they've rarely won in structure. But their quarterback is the greatest creator of all time. How do you defend that. It's tough, but you have to plaster when he breaks, and we

have some good guys that can do that. Harping for a dB to ask of that, but we have guys that can do it. They will test the edges in the quick game. A few teams have better screen packages and the Chiefs do. I don't think there's a better short area tackler in the game than cornerback Cater Kohu. We know how Ramsey plays in that category. If you shut those down and you get mislayups, you can create these third long for This offense has just been atrocious

because they cannot separate. Force them behind the chains. You'll get some mistakes, you'll get some takeaways, you'll get some punts, and if you can do that all night, you'll win this game. Man, there's chances to win this game. This is not the same Chiefs we've known all along, unless they took the week off and became World readers again, but I doubt that. Finally, their run game. I love Pacheco.

He's a big passing game weapon has taken more with the loss of McKinnon in that role, So again big game for Duke and Bake and just not getting off those interierior blocks but being able to run wide and cover those curl flat responsibilities as well. Some last notes here on the Chiefs. They have the highest pass rate over expected, which means in run situations like a first down or a second and three, they throw more than

anybody else. Wouldn't you if you had Mahomes. You also don't really sack mahomes four percent sack rate, but you can force a lot of incompletions. In check downs, they give you those chances to rally and tackle. That's how teams have had success. Only Rashi Rice is in the top fifty receivers for this team. Of YAK, he's fourth, and when he goes off, the Chiefs offense tends to go off, so tackle him. In fact, there's a number

for that. They have the second lowest a dot in the league average depth of target at six and a half yards, but their six point three to two YAK is second best in the NFL. Because Kelsey, Rice and but check O were good, the other guy's not so much. There's correlation there. I think this game calls for Josh Boyer specialty. Honestly zero blitz because one I think they don't have the guns to make you pay for it, and two you don't have the guns to move him

if you don't. That's kind of where I see this game going. What's at stake seems like a very silly segment to having the playoffs. But I have a different little twist on it here. So it's this, a difficult offseason full of very annoying commentary is coming. If you don't win, now, whether you choose to let that upset you as your call, it's I mean, I'm on Twitter so much because of my damn job that it bothers me.

But I have to do better about that. But if you do win, you get another crack at Baltimore, most likely unless Pittsburgh upsets Buffalo, but not gonna happen. Probably not. It'll be fun to watch on Sunday knowing that we have another game that I'll really look forward to that just to hope the Bills lose and the freaking fan base, but it's probably not gonna happen. But also, you can win the coldest game you ever want in franchise history.

Talk about knocking out some narratives. Here, Tua and Coach can get their first playoff wins. You can beat a good team. A lot of the tackling or the talking points I should say that have driven us wild. You could then point to this and be like, well they won in Kansas City in January, so what does that mean? So please do it? Please please please do it. Also, Hard Knocks has been so good. Don't you guys want

to make more episodes? Wouldn't Hard Knocks arc be so cool if the whole thing was losing to these good teams and you come back and beat even the second time. Come on, NFL, help us out. Keys of the game. Number one, don't let Travis Kelsey beat you. That's simple. Number two, when the Chiefs go off script, you have to plaster and win your matchups. Do not let Mahomes become magic man Maho. You know John Seen and I seem now you don't. Number three consistent execution on offense.

I want to see good operation. I want to see accurate throws. I want to see good routes. I want to see hustle. I want to see effort. I want to see brotherhood routes, all that stuff. Be your best version of yourself. My areas of concern defensive injuries obviously, and our offensive operation in a really raucous environment. If these teams were both healthy, I predict a blowout from Miami. But I think you need the offense to be one of the better versions of itself, and they haven't done

that on the road all season. Because you might get nine of eleven starters back in this game and it's Connor Williams and Isaiah win. Like Connor's super valuable. Isaiah was great this year. But if I told you that going into the season, if you had all those guys but too, you'd say, this offense can score forty points any given week. I don't expect forty, but score points, man, you're there. Do it. Also, their elite linebacker play is

an area of concern. Area to exploit matchups on the perimeter on either side of the football, and the fact that they are a blitz heavy defense that can't do that against this quarterback without getting burned. My prediction, I think the Dolphins gonna win, Guys, I do. I think the Chiefs have been hashed. Not a good team all year. And I think more recently they've become sort of a bad football team. Have you watched the Raiders game they've

played a few weeks back. Now, the Dolphins are teetering on being a good hashtag good football team because all the injuries and the offensive regression. Right, but also we haven't seen the offense this healthy since the Washington game. And that was both receivers, both running backs, and three of your starting offensive line. I mean, that's really not that bad. Now, can we get a pass rush? Do we have to blitz? I think so. I think you go down swinging and you ask the Chiefs to beat

you with their wide receivers. We did see some zero blitz against the Bills. Mahomes does not have the same running ability as Josh Allen. I think if you do that, you can create some stops and go score four touchdowns. Score four touchdowns one per quarter. I don't think it's asking too much, even as good as the Chiefs defense is. You're healthy, you're a great offense, you're a great offensive mine.

You're a quarterback who wants to get a fifty million dollars per year contract in the offseason, go execute those things. I don't care about the weather. I don't care about the crowd. Go be a great offense our predictions twenty eight twenty Miami Dolphins. We'll see if I'm right or wrong on Sunday morning. All right, that's my time, Chiefs Preview Podcast in the Books. You all please be sure to subscribe, rate, review the podcast. You know all that

stuff we like to talk about here on the show. Also, go ahead and follow me on social at Winfield, NFL. Follow the team at Miami Dolphins. Check out the fish Tank podcast with Seth and Juice. Check out the YouTube channel for media availabilities, Dolphins Today and so much more. And last button, not least, Miami Dolphins dot com. Until next time, Fins up, Caroline Cameron, Daddy, He's coming ho