Drive Time: Dolphins Chiefs Week 9 Preview

know what we do. Chiefs, intro, storylines, matchups, keys, what's at stake. Let's go ahead and preview Dolphins and Chiefs from the Baptist Hell Studios. That's a lie. Apparently Caroline's doing construction upstairs at the house right now from my house somewhere in South Florida. This is the Draft Time Podcast, Maggie daff You know, I literally hadn't thought to look at this until today Tuesday, putting together the script for y'all when I started prepping for the Chiefs. So it's

a three point thirty local time kick and Frankfurt. There's a big chance of rain though it's supposed to be a light rain bordering on a drizzle. It's supposed to be fifty one degrees at the day and forty four into the evening with ten mile an hour wins essentially a carbon copy of the weather you had in Philadelphia, with a little bit of moisture added to the equation.

But I've been watching too practice in wind and rain for the last several years doesn't affect in the way you would think it does, so I don't really worry about that anymore real quick, and I thought this was worth looking into as well. One of the big topics I've seen around these International games is the travel, how you prep for it all of that. So teams that have traveled early, and the Dolphins went over on Monday and the Chiefs go over on Thursday are two and zero.

Both the Jags and Falcons traveled the same day, and so Jacksonville won that game. So no real data point on that. But I also found this interesting, and this is very much a point spread type of research point that I would have looked into years ago when I used to do that stuff for a I guess part

time job. We talked about this last Friday with OJ and seth And you know, for personal preparations, when you do have an international trip like this looming with a game to be played prior to that, like you travel on Monday, you better have all your travel prep sorted out for the game before you play on Sunday. Right, So with that, teams who played on the road before traveling to Europe all time are five to nine and one.

The five teams that won were multiple games in the win callumn better than their opposition who played at home the week prior. The Dolphins were of course at home Sunday for the win over the Patriots. And I'm not sure you need much of an intro into the Chiefs who were on the road in Denver for a loss before this trip, because you know who they are, where they've been. Let's go ahead and just do a cliffs

notes version of this portion. The Chiefs intro. Mahomes drafted number ten overall, traded up, gave away the future you know, draft picks in twenty seventeen, and only started the season finale that year, also in Denver, when the Chiefs were

locked into a playoff position. That team, under the guidance of Alec Smith, won ten games and lost in the wild card round with that crazy Marcus Mariota play against the Titans, and that was the last time you could say that about them about bowing out in the first round of the playoffs. They've won twelve, twelve, fourteen, twelve, and fourteen games under Mahomes and their six and two right now. They've gone ten to three in the playoffs

playoffs during that time. There isn't a franchise that wouldn't take a ten to three mark thirteen games into their regular season, and they've done that against the league's best team in the postseason. Their losses coming to the Brady led Bucks in the Super Bowl, the Borough led Bengals when they were red hot to close out twenty twenty one in the AFC Championship Game, and the Brady led Patriots in overtime of that legendary AFC Championship Game back

in twenty nineteen. Mahomes is the constant he and Travis Kelsey, their twenty thirteen second round draft pick, who is one of the greatest unicorns in the history of the National Football League in terms of being among the league leading receivers every year. Despite the fact that he's not a wide receiver. He's a tight end and it just doesn't happen that way. But it does for Kelsey now and we'll cover this in the matchups portion. Replacing Tyreek has proven to be a bit of a challenge for them.

They've used more wide receivers with significant snaps than any other team in the last in the NFL this year. Last year they won the Super Bowl, so it's ridiculous to question that process. But the last few weeks the offense just hasn't looked like its usual explosive self as they're working through two handfuls of recent acquisitions Marquez Valdez, Scantling, Sky Moore, Kadarius Tony, Justin Watson, Rashi Rice, even the guy who has familiarity in Mikole Hardman, he left and

came back. The entire group of receivers has been acquired in the last two years, so I think you're seeing the lack of continuity and familiarity kind of impact this offense. More on that in a moment. The offensive line, though, is where the stability exists. Taylor was brought in to replace Brown, Juwan Taylor and Orlando Brown this year, and Donovan Smith is in for Andrew Wiley, who also exited

in free agency. But they know they can survive pass rush losses off the edge with the creativity of Patrick Mahomes. They just want to keep that interior pocket clean and nobody does it better than Tony Humphrey and Smith. That front three is the league best, in my opinion, better than better than Philadelphia defensively, and this is where it

gets really interesting, like crazy right. They have a Hall of Fame quarterback, hall of Fame coach, Hall of Fame tight end, and the d is where it gets interesting. In my best Al Michael's voice, go figure. But they never had a good defense, you know, good quotes during all that success we just talked about. They never ranked better than sixteenth and defensive EPA during that ten to three playoff record we talked about, and average of thirteen wins per year. But now the defense has been more

efficient than the offense. It starts with Chris Jones, a total beast. They supplemented him on the front with two lengthy, strong edges in George car Loftis twenty twenty two first round pick and Charles Amene, who probably their best free agent acquisition this spring, who they signed this spring. They also drafted another edge in the first round this year and Felix on A duque Uzama who doesn't play a

whole lot but inside. With Jones, another original draft pick back in twenty eighteen, and Derek Nandi, they're really good upfront now. Nick Bolton was another draft hit they had on defense in recent years twenty twenty one. He's also the green dot in the middle of the defense, but he's out. They also brought in Drew Trankwell, who was the Chargers' best linebacker, So they took from their division

rival and got better at that spot this spring. And you know, they're in a good spot there with depth in that position. But they're banged up right there right now because Willie Gay is going to be doubt for this game. It sounds like two but more on that in a moment. They also hit another draft pick with Trent McDuffie in twenty twenty two. They found former Washington State star Jalen Watson as a UDFA last year as well.

They signed Justin Reid last year. They developed twenty twenty fourth round pick Lagerius Snead into a stud, so they are an example of retaining a few core parts from teams of old and then hitting on key draft picks and free agents to cobble together an impressive result. I think you look at this Chiefs team and you kind of project what the Dolphins might look like in two or three years, because I think Miami's going to be a Super Bowl contender for the next couple of years

with this core they have. But it's going to be so imperative for them to draft well after kind of passing on the draft the last couple of years down the road to supplement all those big contracts with key contributors on rookie contracts. That's a podcast for three years away, but just thought it was worth mentioning because these teams they mirror each other in several ways. Andy Reid, you know,

talking about mirroring an offensive genius. He's still at the controls nomre Eric b Enemy, Matt Naggi back is OC. Steve Spagnolo's in his fifth year as DC, cooking up all those blitzer and pressure packages. So they've really built this team to his vision on that side, and the continuity I think shows. While offensively, the lack of such continuity I think has caused some down weeks for the

attack on offense. They've looked disjointed at times, but I also will never doubt their ability to get it right, to get it humming like it usually is. And for all transparency, Miami has been kind of a get right defense for teams in the past. I do not expect that to be the case this time around. We'll talk about that more in just a moment. Some key storylines for this game. Patrick Mahomes has never lost back to

back games. That's the tweet, right, would be a historic waiting for the Dolphins in that sense, and I have to imagine that leads most shows on Monday. Patrick Mahomes lost back to that game the Broncos I was a floup in Miami. They look like the real deal. That's my colin Cowver. Next one is this is more of a what's it state category potentially, but I think the

one seeds up at stake for this game. Remember the before times before Coach McDaniel, we lose a game to some unassuming two to five team and then in December you look back, why the heck did we missed the playoffs by one game? Well, I have a really strong feeling we're going to look back at this game in the same way, but not for a playoff spot. To me, that's already clinch perfectly. But the one seed will be touchdown favorites plus against Las Vegas, which, by the way, wow,

what a tirefire. Against Washington who just traded away their two best pass users on the xter year, against Zach Wilson twice, come on now, and the Titans who will Levis looks good but Rickie quarterback against Vic Fangio with tape to watch. What I'm trying to say is I think Miami's going to win the next several games, regardless

of what happens on Sunday. So if you get this one to me, let's save it for the end of the podcast, because I have a point on that I want to make next storyline, the top two favorites for the MVP race face off to us chance to make a statement against the best quarterback in the world, arguably the best player in football, and put Miami in prime

position heading into their bye week. And it doesn't matter at all, but Miami has a chance in our next story line here to shed the quote unquote cannot beat good teams label again. I think it's dumb, but win this game and you won't hear about it anymore. And they will have multiple chances down the road. They'll play Baltimore, they'll play Buffalo at home, they'll play Dallas, they'll play in the playoffs. They have a lot of chances to win game against a good team this year, but this

one's a big one for them. And then, speaking of that is the Miami defense for real. And again I have you know, or I should say, I hate these definitive takes from sixty minutes of football in early November. But we've seen Miami's defense, very bad offenses and struggle against the good ones and the elite quarterbacks. Right, well, this isn't a bad offense and this is the elite quarterback in the NFL. Can they put the screws to

a top offense if they do? Can you imagine the talking points about it after we have the offense that we have. It should help you that Ramsey's back with the game under his belt. I have to imagine X and Holland arago. In fact, they said as much on Wednesday. Phillips played eighty five percent of the snaps last week, so it looks like he's full go. Nick Needham got

his first reps back. Brandon Jones got his first full slate of snaps, although he didn't travel with the team in Germany, so he probably relegates back to that backup role. But with Holland back not as needed, we haven't been this healthy on defense all seasons. That's the key elements here for this big test is Miami has their entire roster, does it click? Does it work under Vic Fangio Tyreek reunion?

Not much to say about that. It's not in Kansas City, but you know he wants this one and then the last one piggybacks off. That last point is that I think it's fascinating how these offenses are constructed with opposite approaches. This isn't apples to apples because Mahomes is on that second contract, in Tua is on his rookie deal. But you've seen these two teams attack the structure of the

offensive side of the football entirely different. After Case lost the Super Bowl following the twenty twenty season, the pandemic year where they were decimated on the offensive line, they then inked Joe Tooney to the biggest guard contract of all time. They later went on to sign Orlando Brown Junior, and since him they have moved on and signed Juwan Taylor to a similarly massive deal. They did hit home runs in the draft on Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith

as well. Miami, on the other hand, they have invested in the offensive line. I mean big contracts Fatista and Connor Williams. Austin Jackson's the first round pick, Rob Hunts a high second round pick. Lee was a high second round pick. Isaiah Win was once a first rounder. Not a big investment for Miami, a one year free agent deal. But there's a lot of investment on the offensive line. But we also know about McDaniel's famed seven hundred play clip.

I'm gonna go show the entire organization why this quarterback is special. Let's surround him with weapons to maximize that processing and accuracy superpower of his, but also his ability to help get the football out and protect the offensive line for a handful of snaps every single week and mitigate potential pressure problems as a result. I just think

it's a fascinating dichotomy in terms of team building. It's not all done the same, and these two teams are a good example of that, because a lot of this game is like looking in the mirror, but a lot of it is not. At the same time, Let's go ahead and dive right into Dolphins offense versus Chiefs defense, and we start at the quarterback position. To a tongue, Baiowa is gonna go up against a trio of safeties who plays significant snaps for the Chiefs defense. Justin Reid

plays almost every rep. Brian Cook plays eighty four percent, in Mike Edwards plays about half the snap, So there's lots of big nickel package. They play lots of dime as well. We'll get to that here in a second. At receiver Hill Waddle Craycraft, it looks like we could have him back Cedric Wilson against Lugerious Sneed, who does

not leave the field. And then you have some interesting cornerback dichotomy here, or disparity, I should say, because you know Barrios and Smyth on the inside from my slot and tight end positions. Trent McDuffie is your other ninety nine percent snaptaker or corner, but he plays almost exclusively inside, especially with all their sub packages they run now Jalen Watson from WSU, who had a good rookie year but

not so much this year. Pays me to say it, but it's the truth, plays thirty four percent of the snaps. Josh Williams plays thirty three percent of the snaps, and Chamari Connor plays nine percent. So if you're catching my drift here, they have two good cornerbacks, really really good cornerbacks.

But beyond that, in terms of the Dolphin's interior offensive line, with whether it's Cotton or Jones at left guard, I think you're gonna see Connor Williams back, and I'd be shot if Robert Hunt does not play through the hamstring

injury that he suffered last week. You get Chris Jones, who's played sixty percent of the snap, so that is actually a lot higher because he missed the first first game, just the first game, right that that takes in, you know, you know, eight one eighth of the entire snap, so that's probably closer to like seventy five percent. Derek Nandi plays half the snap, so then tray Shawn Warton plays

thirty seven percent of the snaps. The thing you'll see about this defense, and you'll really appreciate where Miami's opportunity is here at the linebacker position is there's not a lot of depth. It's really good up top, not a lot of depth. If they lose guys and throughout the course of the game, that could be a potential big issue as well. So off the edge, Lamb, potentially Toron Armstead, back Austin Jackson we know is good to go. George carl loftis seventy seven percent of the snap same as

Michael Dana. Those guys have been really good this year. Carl loftis on a different level. And then I think you see more Charles Amene who who made his season debut. Was it last week or two weeks ago? I forget, but he's impactful as hell, and he's long and strong and really can lock out the edge. He's played just thirteen percent. And then that rookie first round pick fa and d k Uzama twenty four percent. Running Backs Mooster achmed Jeff Wilson up against a linebacker group that is

not going to have Nick Bolton. He's on ir They're probably not going to have Willy Gay. He's played sixty percent of the snaps and that leads him with Drew Tranquill at sixty six percent, Leo Chanell at forty one percent, and Jack Cochran, who's barely played it all this year. He played a lot in the game on Sunday and the Broncos ran the ball out him and threw the ball at him. It's kind of your sombrero on this defense. But mcduffe never leaves the field, kicks inside to Nickel,

Nick Bolton's the green dot field general. He's out. They have to get a new signal communicator. I believe this is probably Drew trankwill in this position, a mena who I think starts off the edge coming back from his suspension. No Willie Gay, Jack Cochran replacing him, and then Justin Reid also exited the game on Sunday with an injury, but came back and returned to that one. So flying

over on Thursday. Who knows how those injuries react to that after some you know, practices in Kansas City for them, it's all interesting to me. Part of the equation for how that works out for travel, Their personnel usage is unique. They're in their base twenty nine percent of the time, which is one of the higher percentages in the National

Football League. The four to three they run, they run their nickel on one of the lowest percentages of forty five percent, and their dime one of the highest at twenty four percent. They love to get into subpackage. They love to blitz dbs and kind of confuse you, and

every shell looks the exact same. Then they rotate and shift and they run a variety of coverages, like they're heavily in Man free, they're heavily in Cover three, they're heavily in Cover six, and those are kind of all translucent types of coverages that blend off each other, and so they get to the same pre snap look and adjust to those accordingly post snap. That's why two was

processing one of the best in the league. To me, has a chance to exploit this defense in a way that nobody else really has this year because they haven't seen a quarterback this good. They played the Chargers a couple of weeks ago, they scored seventeen points. That quarterback is not a good processor, so there's an issue there. They've played the Broncos twice and even though they won the game, that Broncos offense didn't do a whole lot on this

case defense. They played the Lions back in Week one and they were kind of getting their feet weight a little bit. The Vikings had a pretty good plan to score twenty points on them. But nothing is going to test this and that was without Justin Jephson. Two. I think nothing will test this Chiefs defense and the way

they operate. Like Miami's offense, Let's go ahead and take a quick break right here and come back and pick it up on the Dolphins offense first, the Chiefs defense, and we'll take our second break after the other side of the football. All that coming your way next year. On the Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation, we left off on the

other side talking about this Chiefs defense. Let's go ahead and kick this segment off by looking at some of their leaders by the stats, the pressure leaders I mentioned George Karloff is thirty nine pressures this year. He's top ten among edge rushers, and then Chris Jones also top ten among interior with thirty actually his top five and he missed a game. Then a drop off to Mike Dan twenty two, but then a bigger drop off to Drew trankwill eleven so they have three guys up front

that can consistently put pressure in the quarterback. So I like Miami's chances to new those guys because it's really the four man rushes that have four guys that could win one on ones that give this Dolphins group, this Dolphins front issues. I just don't think that's the case here for the Chiefs, they're stops leaders. Tranquill has twenty three, Trent McDuffie has eighteen. That's cater coohu esque. In terms of a cornerback tackling, Dana has eighteen, Chanelle has fifteen,

and Willie Gay who's out, has thirteen. So what I think is interesting about this list is that Nick Bolton is not in there. To me. It shows you how rare his role is, and I think a big piece of why the Broncos were able to have some success on Sunday against this very good Chiefs defense. Bolton's workload goes one hundred and twenty coverage snaps, just thirteen pass

rush snaps, but seventy nine rundowns. Now, of course, teams are usually behind them, but no other linebacker on the roster has more coverage snaps than rundown snaps because most of them rush the quarterback. So I think you can get away with all this blitzing and fire zones that the Chiefs run because of Nick Bolton, He's a massive loss in that regard. Drew Trankuill steps into that role. I think that he's you know, not the same player, but he's a good player and we saw his role

increase in coverage last week. But then that opens up the role that he previously a field right And further, no Willie Gay means you have two roles that are critical to your defense and what you do. They're not going to be out there. Like to me, this is a kin to Miami not having ex and Holland last week. Now they played the Patriots offense, which you know I could stop, but I think it's going to be a

challenge for KC. This is where I would attack them their interior with all of our spacing, and we caused issues against defenses with you know, both the fifteen to eighteen yard windows in the passing game paired with a strong running game, and that wouldn't be I would be surprised if you don't get nearly exclusive twenty one and twelve personnel groupings to keep them in that base package, keep them out of that nickel and that dime. They love to run to get all those good dbs in

the field. But then again, you know my former kup Jalen Watson has been hit for some big plays this year in five touchdowns, so maybe you do want him out there. But when Gay went down with Houlton already missing, the Broncos average five yards per carry the rest of the way after being held to under three the rest of the game. It's a big impact. They had a lot of success running the football down the middle, So I wonder how much the run game could be a

big key for Miami this week. They're gonna blitz the hell out of you. Thirty six percent is the eighth highest rate in the NFL, and I think that could include some run blitzes as well as they try to get extra hats inside to mitigate that missing middle portion of their defense. But then Miami has the most dangerous play action game in football. Guys, I am so confident this week. I think we are getting healthy at the right time. I think the Chiefs are banged up in

a critical area. I think our run and pass game marry up really well, and the narrative about good teams good defenses goes by the boards this week because the Chiefs have really shut most teams down. But this week I think this is where we excel. That's where they're currently soft because of the injuries. Man, getting that run game going, using some of the motion crack wham action on the interior to help neutralize Chris Jones could be

a big key. And then when they commit those extra blitzers inside, assuming you get one of the most athletic centers and football back in Connor Williams, I think you could really work against some of the leverage they create inherently with some one gap penetration and just kind of let them go upfield and run into Durham Smyth or Julian Hill coming across and split flow action. That's a big key. Marry the run and the pass to exploit the middle of the field and get your vertical stretch

game going. So how about the key cover guys. Snead McDuffie reed, they almost never leave the field, and then the next is Brian Cook. That's your next sombrero and another look into the middle of the field. Vulnerabilities they have here in Kansas City. I know this was the case against Philly, but you had Liam and for Connor, which is one of the greatest disparities on any roster in the league in terms of drop off, and then Lester Cotton coming into the game for the injured Isaiah Win.

It's a different story for an offensive line when he starts versus when he comes in off the bench, saying if it's Rob Jones, but back to Cook, he's hung eighteen point six yards per catch down the middle. I think Wondal is gonna get one on one chances in the middle of the field against these, for lack of a better term, guys that can't cover him. I think

has another big game over there in Germany. We've seen Waddle really exploit the middle of the field against zone and be kind of a quick release option for Tua. I could see, you know, Jalen getting minimal attention. If they combine one a lot of attention to Tyreek Hill and two they blitzed Tua, you can't defend it all, so you have to pick your poison. Even still, Tua has been so good at finding his hot they're going to muddy up the picture, you know, keep it looking

the same, try to change post snap. But that's why I'm just so confident in too, his ability to manipulate process and just kind of get the ball to Braxton to Durham to Cedric to whoever it might be, and just find the hot option there. Speaking of blitzes, it's a big game for Raheem Most man in pass pro as the release valve in the passing game and then also the running game. Obviously we need primetime Raheem Most to show up and give us the balance on offense

to keep it humming. And again it's going to be new young linebackers going up against this KGI veteran, go get them Raheem. Such a fun matchup. Can Miami neutralize the edge the way they have in most games sans Buffalo and Philly and get kar loftis of the game. Can they prevent Chris Jones from wrecking the game. If they can get those two things done, I think they can score some points and give themselves a real shot to get over thirty points and win this game by

a comfortable margin. Speaking of that, let's go ahead and just pick it right up here with the Dolphins defense versus the Chiefs offense. You guys know about Patrick Mahomes up against our safeties. This is where it gets awfully confusing, So stay with me. They have like nine guys who play consistently among the four eligible positions not named running backs. Marquez Valdez scantly plays sixty two percent of the snaps, and he has not been good for them. Sky Moore

plays fifty nine percent. Shaking my head hasn't been good either. Justin Watson's played thirty seven percent and he's kind of Mahomes' go to guy. You'll hear more about that tomorrow with bj Kissel of Casey Sports Network. Me Coole Hardman just got there, but six percent. Probably see more of me, Cole this week. I'd imagine in the game plan and then at tight end, Kelsey plays sixty two percent, not like an overwhelming amount of snaps. Noahgree the tight end

two plays sixty percent, so lots of twelve personnel. Blake Bell the third tight end, plays twenty five percent, and then Rashid Rice plays forty three percent, Kadarius Tonia plays twenty five percent, and this group leads the NFL and drops so If that's the case on Sunday, they're gonna have to make sure they don't drop the football because I don't think they can afford to do that against

this Dolphins team. And then in terms of the offensive lot we talked about are Donovan Smith, Jowan Taylor, the tackles, Joe Toney, Creed Humphrey, Tray Smith, the guards. And then at running back, Isaiah Pacheco plays fifty four percent, Jerk McKinnon thirty one percent, and Clyde Edwards z laire I thought he was going to be a great player, just fifteen percent out of the backfield there has not worked out from LSU. They don't really use an explosive slot receiver.

They move guys all over the formation. In fact, ten players have twenty five percent or greater slot usage and nobody is over sixty percent. So it's a lot to look at for the Dolphins defense. And in terms of their personnel groupings, eleven percent personnel sixty two percent of the time, twelve personnels twenty seven that's a very high figure, and thirteen personnel three time as ten percent, that's also

a very high figure. Lots of Noah Gray and Blake Bell like, okay, cool, not really that scared about that. This is you know, there is one surefire way to limit the Chiefs production offensively, and it's not a mystery. You have to find eighty seven and you have to disrupt him. He's the most unique player I think I've ever studied. Do you guys remember that clip of the Chargers rookie asking him if he had any advice for the rook after they met on the field following the

game a couple weeks back. Kelsey said that his key was to understand the other side of the football as well as you understand your own, and damn it, that's the entire key to his game. He loves to run to space regardless of his route. You'll see a pretty common concept start to unfold and then he just checks up like he's running a seven sail and he just like checks up for a little hookup. It's weird. He'll turn over the wrong shoulder. His spatial awareness, I would say,

is the best of all time. Is that too much? Maybe Wes Welker was better, but those are one to two In my book, I would shadow him with five. I would put Jayalen Ramsey on eighty seven. And say you've got no one else to follow this game ten on ten. You're following eighty seven, maybe even Javon Holland sometimes, and maybe you can trap a little bit where you kind of change that up and try to muddy up the picture for Mahomes where it's sometimes it's X, sometimes

it's Javon, sometimes it's Jalen. But primarily I would say five ninety five percent of your snaps, just follow eighty seven wherever he goes, go follow into the bench when he goes and gets gatorade. If we let Kelsey run through zones and the hook and the hook zone, guys is like between the numbers, you know, like five yards to fifteen yards off the football. If you let Kelsey just run free in that area, they're gonna kill you,

That's what they do. You have to kind of trail him and put somebody in that hip pocket so he can't do that nonsense. The best way to negate him is to shadow him, because Mahomes is hesitant to go to his other guys because they've let him down time and time again, Like please just drop passes again and force pat to force some balls and then turn it over.

I think you force that by taking Kelsey away. And the last thing here on Kelsey, so they always show the grind of his production with and without Taylor swift in attendance. Right, And I get that's easier to digest for the Swifties and probably most football fans, but Drivetime listeners do not saddle up shotgun for that type of analysis. Right.

Here's the truth behind those splits. The difference between the games where he's produced one hundred and twenty four yards in Denver one hundred and seventy nine yards against the Chargers, those were the two games where he saw nearly exclusively zone coverage. Hey Brandon Staley, you're doing, bro, what are you doing? You defind the Tyreek Hill like that? Now you're gonna defend Travis Kelsey like that. The best way to take away those side adjustments is to just shadow him.

But as we've learned from Mike McDaniel, if you take something away, you open something else up. Right, So we'll see and Mahomes, it's not you know, he's not at all shy about peppering other players. When Kelsey does command the attention, I think he hesitates a little bit, but he will do it. But if you go back to even the Alex Smith days and all those great matchups versus the Patriots, you know Belichick would always meg it

man everywhere he goes, and then zone everywhere else. I think Miami is super equipped to do this, And I think the best part, I like three of our guys's play style or ability to match up with his physicality. X specializes in physical coverage, although I wouldn't do that because Kelsey is probably a smoother mover than X's at this point of his career. Javon is feisty as hell, and I like him playing that five yard off coverage and just kind of reading the hips of Kelsey and

making those matches in his zone match patterns. And then Jalen Ramsey. He literally did this with the Rams against Kelsey. In fact, I played up the last I pulled up the last two times that Ramsey played the Bucks. The playoff game two years ago, he was on Mike Evans most of the game, though he did have some snaps on Gronk and Oj Howard and allowed just one catch for seven yards to the two tight ends combined. Back in twenty twenty, he was targeted seven times against Mike

Evans to allow just four for forty. But Gronk again did not have a catch on eight routes against Jalen Ramsey. Honestly, my hypothesis with that we see Gronk more on Ramsey. But the point still stands, and in fact, there's even better historical evidence against the Chiefs and Kelsey. Here's the rub. Ramsey shadowed him really the entire game last year, and eighty four percent of Kelsey's routes came against Ramsey. Three targets,

one catch. Now, it was a big play, a thirty nine yard touchdown, but guess what one of those incompletions was also a pick for Ramsey. So if you tell me right now that Ramsey shadows Kelsey and he scores once, gains thirty nine yards and there's a pick in there, the Dolphins will win the game if you get that production from Jalen Ramsey. How about elsewhere on this Kse offense.

Because we talked a lot about Kelsey here, the more I watched the team, the more I saw wins despite these disjointed looks where Mahomes like kind of gets off structure and off schedule, but then he's really not like he has some weird footwork that works for him in the pocket. And we'll talk to bj Kissel, longtime chiefs analysts about this tomorrow. But I think they're still working

in the familiarity of Matt Naggi coming back. And you know, I know Andy Reid is the head honcho there, but Eric Bienemy had been there the entirety of his career previously, but then also trying to get things sorted out with the rest of this young wide receiver group that has

been assembled over the last two years. Bind MVS big bodied X receiver off to a slow start, does not separate at all, Sky Moore like think Albert Wilson, Like, there's not really any vertical sense of good route distribution. How he kind of gets separation. He aligns everywhere. They try to manufacture touches for him, but he does not catch anything beyond like ten yards down the field. Darius tell me is the Kadarius Tony is the exact same

way as that. Justin Watson is a kin to me to MVS play style wise, and then Mkole Hardman is the take the top off burner. I don't think any of those matchups scare me, like take away, Kelsey, I think you can hold this offense to like twenty four points. I really do. And how Miami matches up there, you know, I'm not sure what they do exactly, but you know, I'm just gonna be frank with you guys. I think Miami ought to put it to these casey eligibles. We

are better than they are. Every matchup favors Miami, and I'm not really worried about someone making us pay for giving too much attention to Travis Kelcey. I almost wonder if you just man him up and then zone off everything else. But then again, I don't like a heavy plan. Think a man heavy plan is a bad idea either. As long as you have someone keeping an eye on Patrick Mahomes. The one thing you have to accept is they are going to scheme open wins. Andy Reid's a genius.

There's no way around that. They get layups off their zone read RPO looks for Mahomes just kind of point and shoot and very adept approach in terms of seeing coverage and getting the football out fast. They hit RPOs with horizontal stretch as well as anybody. Again, it's Andy Reid, so you live with those, but like I said, there's a lot of chaos ball where he moves around and makes plays from the move. Rush lane integrity is vital.

I don't think you can bank on constant pressure in this game because that interior offensive line is so good, and then Mahomes is so good at mitigating exterior pressure off the edge, because if there's been one area they've struggled to protect, it's off tackle. We'll tell you about the numbers behind that next on the Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation, segment number three, and gosh, I continue to just think about how fired up I am for this game. I'm

just fired up to be here. Pressures allowed, I mentioned that off the other side, these actually are a lot higher than I thought they would be. And you watch the Chiefs on tape, you know, like Mahomes makes a lot of it work. But they've gotten beat quite a bit on the offensive line in terms of past sets. So Donovan Smith twenty nine pressures allowed, Juwan Taylor twenty one pressures, and then inside both guards, Smith and Toney

have allowed fifteen each and then create Humphrey nine. So Donovan Smith is their left tackle, and to me, he is very gettable. I think Bradley Chubb can reset him and run through him with power and just push him into Mahomes's lap in a way that forces Mahomes hopefully

up into a collapsing interior pocket. As long as Wilkins and seither can get their handful of wins that marry up with Chubbs wins at the right time, and if he you know, tucks it and looks for space, I think Chubb can have a big game where maybe he has multiple sacks, getting that second effort getting off the block and chasing Mahomes and you know, tripping him up and get him from the ground. If they do that a couple of times and put him behind the chains,

I like Miami's chances. On the other side, take struggles with really quick getoffs, and that's what Phillips and Van Ging will do. Man and Phillips can convert that the power. Phillips is just a complete player. I think we match up really well here, guys. It'll be interesting to see where miam he can get their wins up front, because I don't bet against ninety four and ninety two. But again, that interior three is as good as there is in football.

I think the big key for those guys is keeping second level climbers from attaching to both Long and Baker, and that's where I thought Wilkins and Sila were best against the Patriots. I mentioned I thought that David Long was a key in the Philly game, and he played awesome and it looks like he's kind of arrived as the guy that I thought he would be in this defense.

Mahomes is not a designed run quarterback like Hurtzes, but he scrambles as smart as anybody, and that he attacks the lion of scrimmage looking to throw vertically, but then sometimes just falls into these big runs on scrambles as a secondary option. Mahomes getting out wide is the biggest nightmare in this game possible all year. They've rarely won in structure, but their quarterback is the greatest creator of

all time. How do you defend that? It's tough, but you have to plaster when he breaks, which is the hardest thing to ask of a defensive back. It's why I wonder if you go manner zone in this game, I wouldn't blitz him, you know, save those extra bodies for covering up Kelsey anyway you can. I wouldn't count on pass rush wins on the interior, So play with good rush land integrity. Just contain Mahomes' ability and win with coverage and I think you'll be good. They will

test the edges with a quick game. But again, I don't think there's a better short area tackler to go get Tony to go get more to the ground at the corner position than cater Kohu. And we all saw how Ramsey fares in that category last week. Too big key there. You shut down those plays on early downs, force them behind the chains. That's where a lot of the mistakes have come from in terms of giveaways and the case offense bogging down a little bit. Finally, their

running game. I like Pacheco a lot. He and McKinnon are as deadly as they come in the passing game, So big game for long and bake not just getting off those interior blocks, but being able to run wide because they love to stretch you in the curl flat area and just basically open up his zones for Kelsey to pick his way through. So if you lock down Kelsey, you have to make sure you have eyes on the running backs getting wide in the short passing game to

help Mahomes kind of create that spacing. If ever there was a week to stop overrunning hook zone throws, drome, this is the week to do it. What's at stake here for Miami. This is the most important game of the year for my money, and I'll tell you why. In this context, I want home field advantage. That's why I think it's biggest game the Dolphins have played in decades, because the previous biggest games were like trying to maybe overtake the Patriots by a game, and the standings in

early October. I think this team has a chance to win the whole damn thing. And I think if they win this game, I think they'll get home field. But I think it goes without saying that. You know, teams that come here to face a sixteen to two team at home in the last eighteen games, it's not crazy to say you like your chances in those situations. Right, If you lose the KC, you're a game back in the lost column, and they have the head to head advantage.

So the winner of this game will essentially earn a two game advantage over the other when we both head into our Week ten buy for us. We play teams that will be at least a touchdown favor over. Right. You get Zach Wilson twice, Sam Howell, Aidan O'Connell, now

Will Levis. Okay, what I'm telling you is, if you beat Casey, you're going to own the one seed heading into Christmas Eve against the Cowboys with a very likely scenario where if you just win two of the final three games, you'll get home field advantage, maybe even one out of the last three, which I know Dolphins has probably would panic out their breeches if that happens. But I'm just telling you you could go into the last three games with a two game advantage with two of

those games at home as well. So that's my long winded way of saying I fully expect that if you beat case you're going to the super Bowl. That's how I see it. Long way to go, but hey, I like my track record with predicting this stuff. The keys of the game. Do not let Travis Kelsey beat you. I think it's I think you'd be foolish to not give him more attention and force Tony and Moore and

Watson and these guys to beat you. Second key when when the Chiefs go offscript on offense, plaster to your guy, have Rushland tagery. Do not let Mahomes create outside of a structure. That's where he's most deadly. Just contain that a little bit at number three, marry up the run and the pass to attack the middle of the Casey defense. That's where they're vulnerable. And speaking of areas of concern,

Kelsey Mahomes offscript as a scrambler, Chris Jones. If we don't have Rob or Connor worries me areas to exploit middle of the field on Kansas City's defense. They're banged up linebackers and safety and cornerback depth, they're tackles in pass pro, and Ramsey as the ultimate eracer. My prediction. I told you guys, I was concerned about not having Connor Williams against the Eagles and would flip that pick if he didn't play. And he didn't, I flipped it.

We lost by two touchdowns. I told you I was worried about Buffalo if we didn't have Deshaun Elliott and I might flip the pick. We didn't. I did not flip the pick. I should have, but the reason I'm telling you all of this is that I don't have these concerns this week. I think we're going to see Miami play their best game of the year. Think you're gonna see him beat a very good team. I think you're going to go into the bye week as the one seed, knowing you have five cupcakes coming in to

the line of the schedule. An erase all the negative nonsense people have been spouting. Thirty four twenty four Dolphins get the biggest win they've had in franchise history, going back to the Jets win in two thousand and eight. That's it. We'll have the recap pod for you guys on Sunday afternoons. It's an earlier game, so we'll have that the postgame show the Monday, All twenty two. Then the schedule changes for the bye week. I'll give you

some more detail about that next week. I have some big guests lined up that I'm very pumped to talk to and bring to you guys here on the podcast. But until tomorrow with KC Sports Networks BJ Kissel, that is my time you all. Please be sure to subscribe, rate, review, follow on social all that stuff. Check out my guys, Seth and Juice and the Fish Tank check us all out on the postgame show on one oh five nine FM on the iHeart app as well and Fox Sports

nine forty down here in South Florida. For all those you know, non local listeners, the Art Apple'll have it for you, guys. Check out the YouTube channel for media availabilities this week that I'm not covering Dolphins today and so much more and last but not least, Miami Dolphins dot Com until next time. Finns up Calan Cameron Daddy. He's already hoping