Drive Time with Travis Wingfield begins. Now let me check your pulse if you're not far though. What is up, Dolphins?
And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast, part of the Miami Dolphins podcast network covering your team, your Miami Dolphins. How's it going, everybody? I am your host, Travis Wingfield. And on today's show, it's Wednesday, and y'all know what that means. Time to prove you another Miami Dolphins football game.
We'll get into the details and keys between the Dolphins and Broncos, including key stats, the key storylines, a history of the Broncos to this point, the tell of the tapes, and of course the keys to victory from the Baptist Health studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex.
This is the Draft Time Podcast. Maye gaff.
A not so familiar foe coming from the Rocky Mountains and John Denver, which seems odd with them being in our conference. We last played the Broncos in twenty twenty and the last time we played them here twenty seventeen, and that just goes to show you that we have not had the same divisional standing as the Broncos in a long time. So we get that three year rotation game with playing the entire AFC West to every three years. But still this quote unquote rivalry is home to some
of my favorite all time Dolphins games. That two thousand and two Sunday night football victory the hardest hitting, most physical football game I've seen the Dolphins play in my lifetime to propel Miami to a five to one record on the foot of a Lindo Mare, on the broken thumb of Jay Fiedler and the arms of Ricky Williams.
And really the defense was the one defense and Ricky were the ones I believe put them in that position, but also atop the ESPN Power rankings after that victory, and I recall showing all my friends in computer lab the next day, Hey, look who is number one in ESPN's power rankings. The two thousand and five opener was my senior year of high school. We were supposed to get wax but instead were the ones doing the waxing
thirty four to ten. We also had a big win up there the wildcat season, which was a big victory for the divisional championship that we claimed last time we did that in two thousand and eight, And truth be told, the t Bow game.
Your boy wanted Andrew.
Luck that year, so I was pretty excited about that comeback from touchdown Jesus himself. Then the twenty fourteen game where Tannehill played maybe the best game of his career as a Dolphin, but then Peyton Manning did Peyton Manning things to overcome eleven point deficit in the fourth quarter. Since that guy retired, though, since their twenty fifteen Super Bowl championship, it has been tough for the Broncos at quarterback,
as has the search for their franchise quarterback. Trevor simmem E Won Knitt Brock Osweier backs and Lynch case keenum might have been the best of the entire bunch, Drew Locke, Joe Flacco, Brett Ripion, Jeff Driscoll. It's not all that dissimilar to what we went through in the post Marino era, which is a little bit short of a timeline, and they also fittingly had issues finding their air apparent to
lway before Manning's arrival in twenty twelve. Combined from the first year after the Super Bowl championship, so twenty sixteen through the last year without Russell Wilson twenty two twenty one, they were thirty nine and fifty eight, yet still as a franchise five hundred and four fifty six all time, and that includes last year's five and twelve records, So all things told, that is seventy losses compared to forty four wins over a six year span, and then zero
to two this year, so forty four and seventy two at this point. But enter Russell Wilson in year one did not go as planned. He could not see the concepts, he could not throw the ball vertically, he could not scramble.
It was a disaster. More on that later.
Then enter Sean Payton, who's ozer and two so far and made more headlines with his mouth than his team's play on the field, and they had an eighteen point lead evaporate last week. He's ruffled the feathers with his words since his arrival. But let's not make any mistake
about this. The passing game looks back to old Russell Wilson, albeit a small sample size essentially one half of football against the Washington Commanders, and that game is obviously doing a lot of heavy lifting in terms of their season long production.
But if he can do that.
If he can recapture that one half of football he had against Washington, then the passing game can get back
to NFL competency levels. And I think the thinking there for them is a team that's had an excellent defense since a certain head coach there built it that way back in twenty nineteen, talking of course about Vic Fangio when he acquired Kareem Jackson and drafted Patrick Curtan, Baron Browning, Caden Sterens, Jonathan Cooper, and Draymont Jones, all pieces added during the Fangio run, And quite frankly, that's their best pass rusher, their best cover guy are gonna be the
best cover guy in the entire National Football League, and their two best Wilkins and stealer analogs in Cooper and Jones, although Jones has been traded to Seattle for Russell Wilson since that time.
But you get the point.
And with all that said, has the window passed that defense by because the issue was quarterback play and the offense in the last several years, And of course it's hard to win with uncertainty at quarterback, especially when you invest a massive contract in several premium draft picks into that player currently though twenty third points a lot on defense,
sixteenth in total defense. If it's too early to say the jury is in, which I think it is, but it is a continuation of last year's defense ranking fourteenth and scoring despite being seventh and total defense. But I think that was more of an indictment of their offense being thirty second overall.
They just could not sustain drives.
But in twenty twenty one Vics last year there third and points and eighth and total defense. So maybe it has come and gone, and this happens sometimes our two units do not mature at the same time, and it kind of puts you in this limbo in the NFL where between six and eight wins annually. Gosh, don't we know that struggle? Again, not saying that's where the Broncos are right now, but it looks to me like that's
where they're headed unless they change course. But I think it's an interesting stilly to see how it bears out over the next few months here for the Denver Broncos. Before we get to know the players and the matchups here in this game, how about some of the key storylines. I don't think there are many here because, like I said, we don't play them very often and they're not really
a team that contends with us at this point. Right now, already being two games behind, you can put them three and a half games behind with a victory here because of the head to head tiebreaker and three games up in the standing.
So the first one to me is the climate change for Denver.
Not global warming, which is obviously real, and if you you know what, let's let's be very back from that. The climate change from going to beautiful Denver, Colorado, where this week the highs are in the high seventies, which is pretty good obviously, but that fifty percent humidity and the real feel of like seventy five degrees doesn't quite match up where you're going to get down here, that ninety percent humidity on Sunday with a real feel of
ninety four degrees. Trust me, it hits different. You cannot walk from your car to the gate. I mean, if you have the orange parking pass like I do, Whi's about a five hundred foot walk without getting damp in your pits, on the back of your knees, on your forehead, and everywhere else. How do the dolphins take advantage of that. The last time the Broncos played a September game in Miami was that two thousand and five season. And if you guys recall that one, I have that VHS tape somewhere.
I've seen it about thirty five times, and it's getting to the point, like saw Goodman's tapes. I watched it so many times, that's starting to run out of wear and tear. Actually I don't know where it as anymore, but you get the idea. But they ran out of cornerbacks in that game because of cramping and Marty Booker, mister four to six. Marty Booker ran away from the entire defense on a go ball on a sixty yard touchdown.
Like that tells you how hurting they were in that game.
It's also an eleven am body clock game for them, which is a game that teams from the West Coast traditionally struggle to play in a three and oh versus an oh to three start. It's my next headline here. Normally I hate the X percent of teams make the playoffs after a X and X start, Like whatever. The truth is that good teams typically start good, and bad teams typically start not good, right, So those numbers can
kind of go out the window. But for instance, the Chargers are a team like I know they're not a bad team despite being oh to two. But when I look at the Carolina Panthers at zero to two, I know they're not good and that's why they started zero to two. However, the numbers here at three and oh are pretty jarring. Since nineteen seventy, seventy six percent of teams to start three and oh have made the playoffs,
including last year's Miami Dolphins. How about this one, though, ninety nine teams have begun oh to three over the last twenty seasons. I don't know why there's a difference in to that span. Maybe it's because of the stat ninety nine teams zero to three over the last twenty years, and just one has made the playoffs, the twenty eighteen Houston Texans. It's an urgent game for Denver. We should get their best effort, but we also get to come back home. We love this building, don't we home, Sweet
home baby. We are twelve and two in our last fourteen games at hard Rock Stadium, and surprise, surprise, the streak started the moment that Brian Flores stopped thinking that Jacoby fucking big Slops Brissett was better than two A tongue bay Loo or I guess he was forced to take Slops out of.
The game after getting hurt against the Ravens.
And this team under the guidance of TUA doesn't typically lose games they're favored in, So looking forward to that trend continuing hopefully. How about Fangio and butch Berry facing their former team. So much has changed since Fangio was there, but I'm sure he'd like to win this game just a little bit excher than usual. Probably the same for
Barry as well. Who has this Dolphins offensive line playing like one of the best units in the NFL, just one sack allowed and coming off a one hundred and forty five yard ground attack on Sunday Night football, compared to a Denver offensive line who this year has allowed the fifth most sacks in the NFL at nine. His teaching techniques, I think are really taking hold to this Dolphins group up front. All right, let's go ahead and get our first break in there early and come back
on the other side. In preview Dolphins offense versus Broncos defense, that's next Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by I don'tation love cooking up some game plan ideas and how these matchups might go. As we move on to a third preview of the season. I believe I said twenty seven to twenty four Dolphins over Chargers. I believe I said twenty eight seventeen over the Patriots.
Feeling pretty good about how accurate those predictions played out, and quite frankly, I think the Dolphins were a lot closer to twenty eight seventeen than they were twenty four to seventeen in terms of how that game played out. But either way, I'm gonna give you a prediction at the end of this episode. And here's why I believe
that in the next twenty or so minutes. So the Dolphins offense, we know who they are by now, but quarterback versus safety to a tongue of I Loo versus a pretty good trio of safeties back there at least the top two guys, Justin Simmons, one of the best in the NFL, and Kareem Jackson are their two go to guys. Jackson got ejected last week, and we'll get a fine we'll not get a suspension after a pretty dirty hit on Commander's tight end. Logan Thomas and then
Turner Yelle was the guy that stepped in. And when they lost Jackson, their deep passing defense really fell apart in that game. Receivers versus corners obviously Hill Waddle, Craycraft, easy E, Patrick Sirtan's one of the best in the business to Mary Mathis and then Fabian Moreau played like ten snaps total. So they go Sir Tan and to Maury Mathis and nobody else in the perimeter in the
slot Barrios and Smyth versus e saying Bassie. Bassie plays about sixty five percent of the snaps there, which is according to their nickel defense for the most part. So Sir Tan, Mathis and Bassie almost to the tee you can predict their role in games. And then Simmons versus and Singleton versus Smyth, and the tight ends in the passing game. Interior offensive line Win Williams and Hunt have
been fantastic. They get a nose tackle in DJ Jones who plays fifty eight percent and Mike Percelle plays thirty two percent. Think of both of those guys as John Jenkins esque, just big space eaters who try to occupy a couple of blocks and free up the linebackers to make their plays. Also on the interior, Harris as fifty nine percent snap taker. And then Zach Allen is a guy that plays eighty five percent of the snaps, a draft hit for the Cardinals who exited via free agency
and now is playing here for the Denver Broncos. Off the edge. Will it be Armstead or will it be Kendall Lamb. Either way, I think you're pretty good. And then Austin Jackson up against Jonathan Cooper a sixty eight percent snap taker, Randy Gregory sixty five, Nick Bonito forty five, and then Frank Clark has played just nineteen percent of
the snaps. And then Josie Jewele is our middle linebacker who's played ninety one percent of the snaps, as well as Alex Singleton seventy five percent against running backs like moster ackman and a chain And obviously you know it's a pretty high snap count for those two linebackers. We'll find out more about that here in just a moment.
Their best player on defense besides Sir Tannam my opinion is Baron Browning, but hea't on the injury reserve, and their number two cornerback On Williams is also out as well as safety three Caden Steren's all going to be down for this game. Let's go ahead and start through on the defensive backfield because I think it's probably the
matchup that statistics say favor Miami the most. So Williams was signed as that cornerback too behind arguably the best cornerback in the NFL, and that's who I would take I fus string a team today at corner passer ten.
The second you want to talk about a tough position, there's that's why you kind of know by name the guys that are the best in the business, and I think he's in that category for sure, because I mean put it this way, your job is to cover someone with your back to the thing you're defending, which is the goal line, and you have no idea what they're going to do. So you talk about you have to have certain traits to be able to execute that as well as you have to be deliberate in your approach.
You have to have technique and fundamentals, and you have to be patient when you need to be, and aggressive when you need to be. So I think you know he deserves all the praise he gets. He's a heck of player.
And so Demary Mathis has been filling into the perimeter with Is Sang Bassie and the slot. And Bassie was a guy they cut a couple of years ago and have brought back since then. But Demari Mathis has struggled in a big way in that role. Fifteen for seventeen are teams targeting him for a bucks seventy eight and three touchdowns on just eighty three coverage snaps in that game, like or in those two games, if you can go one yard per coverage snap, that's pretty good. Two yards
is atrocious, and he's over that mark. Terry mcclaurin got him four or five for forty five yards and a touchdown. Three other receivers got targets and went three for three for thirty eight. First Las Vegas, Jacoby Myers had six of seven for sixty three and two touchdowns. So pretty
much everybody has gone after him and found success. Touch your rabbit hat this week Tomary Mathis and then Pat sertan opposite story two for two seventeen yards against Diami Brown last week, just two yards of yak, So he's playing a little bit of soft and off for a couple of cheap completions underneath that you don't worry about. Versus Las Vegas, DeVante Adams tried him five times, caught just two for sixteen. He's also played Tyreek one time in his career and held the Cheetah to two for
twenty five and had a pick. So Wattle's availability could be big here because I mean, I wouldn't go away from Tyreek if it's one on one, but I imagine that even helps Heartan a little bit.
But I would go with that matchup for the Broncos.
And if Wattle's available, I mentioned it last week, one hundred and fifty yards, he got like eighty six, but obviously was banged up and dinged up a little bit here and there, and we had some woes that kind of, you know, shut the offense down a little bit in the second half. But if Wattle plays in this one, I think he's going to electrify the home crowd once again.
In the slot.
Iss Sang Bassie was two for two last week in terms of targets and catches both chunk gains against tight ends. I wonder if Durham Smyth can get some play in that role. They also ran a couple of slot screens and he cut both those down for no gain on those plays versus Las Vegas two for two for twelve yards. So it really teams are going after Mathis and the Broncos cornerbacks and Sirtan and Mathis never go side. Bassie
exclusively plays there. I'll be curious to see how they handle the speed and the weather and if they have to utilize more players because we've seen it happen down here before where defensive backs have to go get a blow or miss an entire series. And if Miami can test the depth they have there, it could make for another very productive and fruitful day for the Dolphins passing game.
Upfront, we know they love to blitz. They love it more than anybody else in the NFL.
It's advanced Joseph non Negotiable scheme principle, one of the top blitz rates annually. Lots of bas with backers in coverage. I mentioned the two linebackers playing both over seventy five percent of the snaps. It's a high number primarily single high to insert an extra safety down in the box and play that run. So run defense, they add up a player in the gap, but it takes away from somebody up top. Will they do that this week and then blitz on top of that and play thin in
the coverage? You're flirting with fire there if you do that. So traditionally they play kind of like the Chargers game plan in week number one, And how did that work out for them? So maybe you get a little more firework style attack compared to last week's efficient, smart, take a short profit approach. I was curious to see how how effective Joseph's blitzing has been, so I went back and found a few things. First off, this year's blitzing versus Garoppolo and the opener, he was eight for ten.
He had two runs, wasn't sacked, so he was forced off the spot two times and ran for positive yarders for one hundred and eighteen yards, no touchdowns and no picks. But was blitz was pressured just four times on twelve blitzer. That's not good. You gotta get home more than that. Howell versus the blitz last week was six for eleven, one sack and one scramble, seventy seven yards, no touchdowns and no picks. He was pressured fifteen times, but he holds onto the ball two point nine to one seconds
on average. It takes most, you know, the Broncos two point six seconds to get there on average. Like, that's just a quarterback that's young, doesn't see the field very well. And what is Vance Joseph's blitz preference? The answer is yes, thirty five percent. Was second. Last year he was third, and twenty twenty one at thirty five percent. Again in twenty twenty he was fourth, but at forty percent. So he's going to bring the blitz more than one third of the time. It's who he is. He will blitz
two at least one third of the snaps. I also wanted to see how Tua has fired togainst the blitz this year, and he's done quite well at twenty one for thirty one two hundred and sixty yards, two touchdowns, no picks, zero scrambles, zero sacks. This will not be an effective approach against the Dolphins if they do that, gonna be a good night.
If you do that. We'll see if they adjust.
And finally, I also wanted to see how the Cardinals fared against the Niners last year when they blitzed Garoppolo and Perty, since we know there's a fair deal of crossover between the two offenses. Two games against San Francisco, their quarterbacks against the blitz were fourteen for seventeen one hundred and fifty three yards, three touchdowns and no picks, but there were two scrambles and three sacks twenty two
total dropbacks. It was just seven blitzes against Garoppolo and fifteen against Perty, So maybe maybe there's some sense there they won't blitz two of that frequently, but I have to see it to believe it. Personnel wise, I mentioned the linebackers, right, they are in that thirty four front twenty six percent of the time, that's the highest in the NFL in a base defense, and they run a four to three eight percent of the time, So they
are in base thirty four percent of the time. Which if they do that against our eleven personnel packages, or if we have you know, re can waddle Azukama in the game and line those guys up in the backfield, there's going to be mismatches in the passing game all day.
Long.
I look for Azukama to get some pass game action out of the backfield in this one. That's a key that I think that.
Min you can exploit here.
As you line him up there, you keep him in that base defense, maybe you motion him to his position where he gets one on one coverage against Alex Singleton, and Azukama can make some big plays in the passing game. This week, they run their nickel fifty five percent and
dime eight percent of the time. Now, their coverage rotation is pretty stark because pre snap they are single high just thirty one percent of the time compared to sixty seven percent of the time in too deep, and there's a little bit of zero and three cover there, but not very often. And they eventually will wheel out and play single high and do some man free and some zone looks from that single high position. And that's all seted around Justin Simmons, who's one of the best in
the entire game. If I'm Tua, I'd be very careful about trying to manipulate him. He tends to know what you're doing as fast as you know what you're doing, so just be careful going after an all pro stafety back there in Justin Simmons, just avoiding Simmons and certain I think we'll have this offense flying for big success. How about their front seven on defense, Their top bend speed power guy is down and Baron Browning he's their top pass rusher. In general, the style of Russier they
feature right now is pretty common across the border. I should say there's not a lot of uniqueness there. It's heavy, heavy end players akin to what the Patriots have. But think about New England's sans Matt Judon, because that's kind of what Brownings analog is is Matt Judon. But Jonathan Cooper low three cone, low vertical, not a very good corner speed. He's a two hundred and sixty pound player. Zach Allen's two hundred and eighty five pounds, heavy handed,
big motor for days now. Nick Bonito is a forty five percent snap taker, but he does lead them with five quarterback pressures, and Randy Gregory is also kind of that length juice athlete combo. But their pressure toles this year have not been good for those guys, but for anybody really, I mean, their pass rush is not getting home. Five for Bonito, four for Cooper, three for Allen, three for Gregory. Not a lot of pass rushing win rates there. It's good for a pass rush win rate of twenty.
Eighth in the National Football League.
At MG Daniel's Wednesday news conference, we got a great little SoundBite from him talking about Butch Berry, the impact he's had the Dolphins offensive line, and why he was so excited about bringing in the new offensive line coach for this season.
Yo, that was thunder.
Oh my god, let's go ahead and hear from coach on Butch Berry.
I was fortunate enough to work directly with Butch and San Francisco for my last season there, and you know, you the ins and outs of a season, especially the one we had there where you know, we were people were speaking on next year. In the middle of the season, we went on a run and then found a way to Galvin Eyes and got to the NFC Championship game. Those that relationship, there's no hiding You kind of know
what you're gonna get. And after really taking in the full or digesting the whole twenty twenty two season, you know, I thought he was just what the doctor ordered. I think if you ask the players, they would say the same thing. And it's not because of anything but his commitment to uh, the task at hand, his commitment to the players, and his integrity of his of his position. You know, he's relentless, he's uh. I mean, he's sweating in a sun hat every day, brings the juice and
takes it very very serious. So I think the the residuals are in the players and you know the I commend the whole group for understanding their various roles and using each other to maximize all the all their potential. And which is you know, this is letter C in the alphabet we have. We have a long way to go, but it's been very encouraging this far.
I think Miami matches up well for a couple of reasons here. They've been excellent handling the extra rushers, different fronts and bluffs and delays and mugged up backers. Just a really good singular unit functioning as one. Then if Wadle is available, I think it's a mismatch for anybody on the back end.
There that they might see.
Finally, their off ball linebackers. I mentioned Josie Jewell, He's a really good player. Singleton has been there for a little while Now, I do wonder if they can match the speed of my running backs, especially if they do align receivers in the backfield to keep that base defense out there against if they want to go base against eleven and that's how they want to play it. I just don't think there's many options here for the Denver
defense to saw this offense down. Personally, but in coverage, teams have gone after those two linebackers fifteen times twelve completions of Buck twenty six, and they are frequently put in position to cover that hook zone. So how they flow to the outside runs, you know, to kind of replace what they want to do. To stack the edge with those heavy ends, they have to commit linebackers downhill to that. But then their ability to get deep drops off of that, I don't know if they can do both.
I just don't think they match up well. So all three areas, I think it's gonna be a struggle. I think it's a forty point day for the Miami offense, how much with a Broncos score. That's next on the other side here of the Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation. We've done the storylines We've done the Broncos history, We've done the Dolphins offense versus the Broncos defense. Let's go ahead and finish up here with the Miami defense against the Broncos
offense and their quarterback. Russell Wilson will go up against a trio of safeties, and I'm curious to see what Brandon Jones's workload could look like this week as he slowly ramps up to getting back on the field on defense. I continue to look at this defense like, if they're gonna play like they did on Sunday night with the personnel they have available to them right now, which didn't
even include Jalen Phillips. And if you're gonna get Brandon Jones back at some point, you're gonna get Nick Needham back at some point. And by the way, Jalen Ramsey is coming up around the corner as well.
Have Mercy Man. This team is gonna be so damn good.
They won a game on Sunday night with I would argue three of their top six players not available in toront Armstead, Jalen Phillips, and Jalen Ramsey. Back to this game, receivers versus corners. We know about Howard Cohu Smith, maybe some Eli Apple on the perimeter up against Courtland Sutlon who played eighty seven percent of the snap so far.
Jerry Judy played just one game, which is good for thirty five percent of the workload, and then Brandon Johnson forty seven percent, Marvin Mims twenty five percent on the interior, Eli Apple and Justin Bethel the ones that play in there more frequently with some cater Coho, but you know, Apple is the one that comes on the field for those nickel packages, and Bethel's the dimeback right now. Little Jordan Humphrey fifty percent of the workload is a slot
receiver and that's pretty much it. The rest of it is ran by their two heavy tight end packages, Adam Troutman seventy seven percent and Chris Manhertz thirty five percent of their workload there with Greg Dolcich out for the foreseeable future, as well as receiver Tim Patrick being down on the offensive line, Wilkins, Seeler Davis in hand will go up against Ben Powers, Lloyd Cushion Berry and Quinn
Miners to those guys big draft crushes. The last couple of cycles here for draft Twitter, I should say off the edge Phillips, Chubb, Van Ginkel and Ogba against Garrett Bowles and Mike mcglinchy, Jerome Baker and David Long against samaj p Rn forty seven percent workload, Javonte Williams forty five percent workload, and they have a fullback Burton who plays fifteen percent of their stap. Let's go ahead and
start in the passing game. In the quarterback, Russell Wilson is a big play hunter, but he hasn't stretched the field consistently and protection has been an issue for whatever team he's played for going back to the last three seasons. And sacks are a quarterback stat. Fellas, we agree because we've seen this offense play without Tua and this go up by like three times with Tua. They never sack
a quarterback. It's a quarterback stack. Russell Wilson holds the ball this season so far three point one five seconds on average. It's the second longest in the league behind Zack Wilson. And there's a common theme among the quarterbacks in the top five of time to throw.
They all kind of stink.
Wilson, Wilson, Bryce Young, Deshaun Watson, and justin Fields. Five of the quarterbacks that have been least productive so far this season, except for Russell Wilson that actually had some success. We'll talk more about that, but it doesn't stop there. Russell's eighteenth and intended air yards at six point nine. That's the opposite of what you want. Tua has the fastest time to throw and the deepest intended air yards
aka the perfect quarterback. Among the five qbs I mentioned, Wilson has the third lowest intended air yards among them. Fields is thirty second, Bryce Young is twenty ninth. You know a rookie who doesn't know what he's doing yet and an underdeveloped veteran in the worst offensive system in the NFL. And then there's Russell Wilson. Sacks allowed nine fifth most quarterback.
It's eighteen. That's the most in the NFL.
If you watch that game against Washington, the last quarter of that game, when they're down by eleven, trying to get back into scoring range or into I guess striking range, Wilson was on the ground every single play. I was surprised he finished that game. He was getting beat the hell up. Thirty pressures allowed, also most in the NFL, and Russell also has four scrambles. For the length of his career, he's been that style of quarterback and elite
athletic ability allowed him to thrive doing it. I think he's returned a little bit more form in that sense than he was last year with an offseason regimen that shed some pounds and allegedly made him a little bit quicker.
And nobody works as hard as Russell Wilson does, so'll give him credit for what he does to his body to train, but I think it's part of the core issue with Denver with why their offense has struggled so much the last season plus two games and now in his last game, he moved around a little bit and hit those high arcing deep shots that made him quite literally the most efficient quarterback in the history of the league as so far as passer rating and EPA and
all the metrics that measure that go that favor his low volume, high explosivetivity style of play for years. But it's a struggle recently and that stems back to his time in Seattle Lash in twenty twenty.
One as well.
I mentioned the two bomb touchdowns, he also hit a third pass that was over forty intended air yards plus three completions of fifteen plus. So last week was kind of like an awakening for Russell Wilson. For one half against the Washington Commanders, plus one of those is a hell Mary, so you no, no, no, but very effective stretching the field. They missed just three of those balls, so five for eight. Throwing the ball vertically. Week one was
a different story. He had two throws at twenty two and twenty one intended air yards and nothing else over fifteen. He completed twenty seven passes, but had just one hundred and seventy seven yards on thirty four attempts. It was dink and dunk. Try to stay on schedule. If you do that against Miami, you're going to lose because you have to hit explosive plays to match our offense. The lack of explosive plays does not offset the twelve point five sack rate like it does when he hits the
big play. So I think you have to get Russ to the turf one of my keys spoiler, because as a result of the game Sunday, he's now eighth and total EPA among quarterbacks. You limit those deep shots and they've struggled to score through the two games when they don't get the deep ball. Forty one percent of Wilson's passing yardage is on those four completions of over twenty yards down the field. The sacks have been drive killers, and if you force them to play the whole length
of the field, you're eventually going to get one. Because nine sacks this year, they've had twenty three possessions on the season. That's like every other drive you get a sack, and they typically end that drive and it's the fifth most of the two games. They hit all four of those deep shots in Week two and scored thirty three including the hill Mary, but in Week one they did not hit one of those and they scored just sixteen points.
So big play Hunter. Last year, time to throw two point nine to four seconds was also near the top of the league and twenty plus air yards thirty one for seventy.
Eight and fifty five sacks. That's not a good combination.
Twenty twenty one time to throw two point seven to eight a little bit faster but less effective down the field twenty nine for seventy five thirty four sacks. The proof is in the pudding limit the deep balls. That's going to be a key. I think Javon Holland and Deshaun Elliott really clicked last week in terms of their shortstop, second basement chemistry they displayed.
Holland was all over.
The field making plays in the box against the run TfL and I think both of them covered super well. Maybe the Stoneman can get on the board here with his first pick of the season, because I think that Russell's going to try the deep shots regardless of whether they're out there there, and I think the way he throws those high arcing shots, I think Holland could get his hands on a couple of those.
Maybe a couple of picks for Holland.
That's kind of my defensive prediction this week. Holland gets his hands on a football for at least one pick. How about how they protect Russell Wilson. Let's go pressures, hits, sacks allowed here for Garrett Bowles five pressures, no hits in a sack, Powers, seven pressures, a hit and no sacks. Cushion Barry clean sheet hasn't allowed anything so far at the center position, Quinn Minor. It's the right guard two
pressures a hit and no sacks. And how about Mike McGlinchey twelve pressures, three hits and two sacks.
Yike.
It makes me curious the game plan because the timely blitzes and then just counting on for the majority of the game JP or Geek or Chubb or Wilkins or Sealer to win these one on ones. I think it's a great option to have against a group that I don't think can handle a lot of these guys one
on one. But I also wonder how much you press the issue on the outs on the inside, because it might be a good time to maintain Vic's classic you know, four to six eight coverage concepts, quads, quarter quarter, a half quarter, a half quarter, but maybe play more bump and run on the outside and force Wilson to kind of second guests and get off that first and second read again, they paid big money to McGlinchey and Powers this offseason, and I'm also old enough to recall when
Twitter wanted to spend all of our money on those two guys, while Lynn, Lamb and Win have been really good so far. To be fair, I was interested in McGlinchey, but not at that price, and it just hasn't begun well for them. Washington got after all day. I think Montes Sweat is similar in his play style to Phillips. If he can go this week and chase you to
Bradley Chubb. I think both players combinations of speed and power could afford them opportunities as Bowles and McGlinchey are slow plotter tackles, and that makes me think about, you know, Van Ginkle getting some pass rush reps against Bulls too, because I'm not taking JP off the field, but if they can't deal with speed, JP and Geink is a good combination. Now, Cushion Barry's played really well anchoring inside in the middle, but you can work on the inexperience playing.
Together for those two guys or all three of those guys new.
Position for minors, first three games for Powers at left guard for the Broncos, and then Cushion Barry just being a relatively new player, but the three of them have not played together for very long.
Washington ran Payne and Allen.
At Powers with power all game long, and they got consistent pushback on him.
Seiler as strong as hell.
I could see that being a key matchup there because Seiler, I think with the length and power, can really give powers all he can handle. He struggled through two games, and look, nobody loves Javonte Williams at running back more than I do. But he's still not one hundred percent
back from that knee injury. He's not moving as fast, and I think they overall he lacks the that the Broncos in general lack the juice in the backfield that could allow us to pay a little bit less attention and take some focus off that and focus on the quarterback scramble with more zone coverage and more deep portion defending with two high structures, Williams averaging just two and a half yards after contact pee Ryan at three point three. They've run for just seven to first downs in two games.
Outside.
Sutton's a big body who can get vertical. He plays almost exclusively on the outside and has the body type and the game or the tile of game that traditionally we see X match up with with physicality and forwarding the quarterback just seeing the one on one matchup and chucking up a jump ball like don't do that against X. Sutton's made forty six of one h two contested catches in his career The only year he was over two yards per route ran, though, was a season where he
played one game and had six targets.
He's just not that productive of a.
Player since then, averages one point four to seven yards per target. His separation stats tell the story of his game, three yards average separation and an intended air yards of eleven. To make it simple, he's DeVante Parker. They run vertical routes and chuck single coverage balls to him and hope he makes a play.
Brandon Johnson is similar.
He has one grab for sixteen before the hell Mary catch, which I don't count as like a evaluation metric. Judy's the big one. I think he's a smooth route runner, and I think the matchup here could be and should be with Kter Kohu, who is the smoothest among our cornerbacks with the best feet. Judy was in his first game back from a hamstring and it did not look good for him. He had the lowest Week two wide receiver separation at a total of one point six yards
average separation. So Wilson on design and nonscripted runs scrambles. This is the big one. I imagine we'll shell it and keep eyes on Russell Wilson. Is this a game where Channing Tendall gets some action to match the speed inside or does David Long do some spying? Curious see what happens there. Let's go ahead and talk about some additional personnel groupings and number usage here for them. Eleven personnel fifty three percent of the time, twelve personnels twenty
six percent of the time. That's a lot of two tight end sets out there. They have the full backs of twenty one groupings is five percent. They run some ten which is one tight end or one running back, no tight ends, four receivers, that's five percent, and they go heavy two backs, two tight ends five percent as well. So a good variation there for them, which we kind of learned that last week with the New England Patriots.
And then some additional defensive numbers here. They allow a sixty three percent rush rate success with negative six point four EPA and they play two high and negative four point seven with one high, so you can run the ball on this team as well. Passing allowing six point two touchdown percentage touchdown rate and just a five point eight percent sack rate and a one point five percent I int rate they are team EPA is minus twenty
point seven. That's thirtieth the same rank against passing thirtieth EPA and rushing in the middle of the pack is sixteen. So defense has been a struggle for them. And finally my three keys. Number one beat the blitz. Two of versus the blitz is great. Joseph does not tend to get home with his blitz heavy defense unless he executes a tenancy breaker that he literally never has in his career, and I think this will be a big key in the game that mine he can exploit up and down
the field. Number two limit Denver's d deep passing production. Wilson's a big play hunter with high efficiency when he can hit deep balls on scrambled drills. Second longest time to throw in the NFL and the highest sackery at twelve point five percent. The sacks are drive killers. Force him to play the whole length of the field. Eventually you're gonna get one. Nine sacks this year on Russell Wilson, fifth most in two games. Number three tackle Russell Wilson.
He's handled pressure pretty well. Twelve for nineteen, one hundred and forty six yards, three touchdowns and a passer rating of one twenty six point three when you cannot get to him, but also nine sacks, but also four scrambles thirty nine yards in addition to three designed runs for eighteen yards, so seven for fifty seven on the ground. Limit his running, stop his deep passing, get him on the ground and you'll be in good shape. Some areas
to exploit lack of depth at cornerback. We mentioned that and a blitz happy defense that sneaks bodies up to the line. Scrimmage play single highest see what happens areas of concern for me. It's just the quarterback running game. I think it's a great matchup from Miami. We don't give up the deep game. I don't think they have the balance and horses to threaten us in the ground
game the way the Chargers did. I think we can turn this quarterback over and post a big total wattles of bailability is the other concern I have over the quarterback run game. But I am seeing this one shakeout forty four twenty four in favor of the good guys, and we continue to have another fun week talking about how great this offense is. I just think they're gonna be playing from behind so often they can get enough
points like twenty four to make it look respectable. But I don't expect it to look that way when you watch this game. All right, that's gonna be my time tomorrow on the podcast, my guest from ESPN Denver, Jeff Legwall. Jeff Legwall, don't miss that. On Friday, Kevin Harlan joins the podcast. I cannot wait for that one planning to come your way from the Draft Time Podcast. In the meantime, you all please be sure to subscribe to the podcast
on Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts from. Follow me on social at winkfold NFL. Follow the team at Miami Dolphins. Here have the fish Tank Podcast with Seth and Juice, the YouTube channel for Media Availabilities and Dolphins Today, and last but not least, Miami Dolphins dot Com. Until next time, Finns up the Caroline, Cameron Daddy, just come and hold