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Drive Time: Dolphins Bills Week 4 Preview

Sep 27, 202345 min
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Episode description

Get ready for game day with a comprehensive report ahead of the pivotal Dolphins-Bills matchup. Travis breaks down the key matchups, critical stats and his keys to to victory.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Drive Time with Travis Wingfield begins.

Speaker 2

Now let me check your pulse if you're not for what is up? Dolphins?

Speaker 3

And welcome to the Draft Time Podcast, part of the Miami Dolphins podcast network covering your team, your Miami Dolphins.

Speaker 2

How's it going everybody?

Speaker 3

I am your host, Travis Wingfield And on today's show, I'm fired up for this one.

Speaker 2

I got really into the Weeds.

Speaker 3

So it's going to be a dense Dolphins Bills matchup preview as we shift our focus to a team we know all too well in those rival Buffalo Bills. We'll preview the big matchup for AFC E supremacy at the quarter point of the season. Tell you why this game is so crucial, Key matchups, key numbers, big storylines, much much more. From the Baptist Health Studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is the Draft Time Podcast. Maggie gaff.

Speaker 2

I would like to give Coach.

Speaker 3

The opening line here he was asked about motivation for this game? Was last next year's disappointing ending to these guys, two losses up there in their building inside of one month? Was that motivation for this game? Here's Coach went back to the check your pulse.

Speaker 1

Well, you know, I think division opponents and like you know, you have what what what's been really uh, I don't know, probably under talked about, is an opponent of this caliber coming off and I mean nine sack, five turnover day. If you need to be motivated for a game like this, check your pulse or maybe consider a career adjustment. So in terms of revent, I mean, I don't think when you when you're playing an a quality opponent in your division like that, there's always going to be you know,

it's the Bills. It's a Bills game, is the way you know, it feels to us, And they have earned the right to be the division champion for several years and they continue to play at a high level. So you know, I think it's a very very difficult challenge that I think our players are pumped for because you sign up to to play the best and I think they fit that.

Speaker 2

And it is Buffalo Bills week.

Speaker 3

We get two of these, or got two of these last year in their building and both games were right there for us. So when you look at what these two teams did this offseason, it was about did Miami

do enough to close the gap. Did Buffalo do it enough to take that jump to the next step, And we had our squad at about as full strength as you can ask in that December game, I know we had a lot of attrition on the offensive line in the defensive backfield, but two, it wasn't there right, not the same story in January and played in that game.

There's no doubt Miami runs away with that contest. But still, even if there was a four game gap by the end of the season thirteen compared to nine wins, I think the context shows you these teams were much closer than that last year, as the results were similar in the end, even if the route to get to those final scores up in Buffalo, you know, three point losses were not similar. One was all takeaways and defensive scores and the other one was offense going up another field.

So it was competitive right down to the very end in both those games. And one of the reasons I feel confident picking the Dolphins to win this division this year was that Buffalo just didn't do a lot to improve their roster from an offseason acquisition standpoint, while Miami did a ton. Evident by what you've seen on the offensive line, with five good players opposed to three. The backfield's a lot better, the receivers are better, the defense

is better, even if it's not actually good yet. Just wait for a few weeks and number five comes back. The Bills big ads Connor McGovern, Trent Sherfield, Damian Harris, Taylor Rapp one of those guys as a starter. On the other side, they didn't lose a whole lot. The only real notable was Tremaine Edmonds. But they just didn't add to last year's recipe. And I guess they were a thirteen win team, so they have that to fall

back on. But I read, I read too frequently, as I give you that shpiel this summer, the Buffalo's window was closing, and that's just nonsense, Like, don't think that, please, because you're gonna be disappointed if you think that they're one of the five best teams in the NFL right now. I think I would put them just outside the top four with Kate, with us KC, Dallas and Philly and McDaniel made the point an oppresser a while back that

I found interesting. He talked about the advantages of having a really good division you play in and sure enough, each of the last two years, these Super Bowl representatives from each conference came from divisions that had two and three teams, with the Eagles with the Giants and Cowboys last year in Kansas City, last year with Los Angeles making the playoffs, and then twenty twenty one, the Steelers joined the Bengals in the playoffs and the four nine

Ers and Cardinals were in there along with the Rams back that year. And I know, it seems like we've been in a division with a twelve game winner every single year since two thousand and three, because well we have except for a year or two, with one of those being where Brady you know, tours ACL in the

first quarter of the first game. So while winning a division where second place is under five hundred sounds like a little bit less stressful of a season, I think it's these types of battles that prepare you to be successful once you get to that point. Now it's still September, so chill on all that talk, right, And I have to do a better job of reminding myself as well, because you never know what can happen in this league.

But I bring it back up because these are tests that I think the team will look back on and be thankful they were part of. I mean, we get to go to Buffalo, to Philly and some version of a road game with Kansas City Eldos in Germany, and finish the year with three teams that I expect to be in the postseason with Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo if we make the playoffs.

Speaker 2

When we make the playoffs, when we.

Speaker 3

Get there, we're going to have played six or seven games against teams that I personally believe will not just be in the tournament come January, but be factors and actual contenders to make the run all the way. So you'll have massive games along the way. And that got sideways a little bit, but I think it tracks with the intro here because you've heard me do this so many times now with the Buffalo Bills, you don't have

to have me repeat the spiel. In twenty seven team they built one of the game's best secondaries in one fell swoop by signing Poyer and Hide and drafting Tredavius White. The next year, they land their quarterback. They continue to draft pretty well and that had become the foundation of their team, but recently quietly their draft classes have not produced a ton of hits, and that's why I say I don't think this team has gotten much better from what they were in twenty twenty one, and the dolphins

continuous trajectory bodes well for closing that gap. It has left them relatively thin Buffalo on the offensive line. I think it's better than it was last year because of some incumbents improving. But they're also like super thinn at wide receiver once you get beyond Stefan Diggs and the second level of their defense. I mean, aside from the three guys I mentioned, got to be concerned about what.

Speaker 2

You might have back there.

Speaker 3

I have two rabbit hats we're gonna don in that defensive back seven. We'll stay tuned for more of that here later on. But they're a great example of something I believe, you don't have to win a championship to be a successful team. And you might come at me and say that's a loser mentality.

Speaker 2

Whatever.

Speaker 3

Man, They've won thirteen, eleven and thirteen games the last three years. They've won four playoff games over those three years, and yes, it sets up for a crushing end of the season. But if I told you right now that Miami would average more than twelve wins per year over the next three seasons and win four playoff games. I'm pretty sure ninety nine percent of you would sign up

for that right now. Maybe you wouldn't take it with the caveat that we lose a Super Bowl or whatever or don't get one at all, but I think you would take that if you didn't know the end result of those playoff trips.

Speaker 2

So the Buffalo Bills have made some changes.

Speaker 3

Leslie Frazier is out at DC, which means Sean McDermott has taken back over the play calling. I think it's worked pretty well so far. You're going to learn a theme throughout this podcast. The Buffalo's defense looks great, but they've played Sam Howell, They've played Jimmy Garoppolo, who looks like not the same Groppolo we saw on Kyle Shanahan's offense, and they also played Zach Wilson. So yeah, you know, we'll talk about that more in the next matchup in

personnel deployment section. But this is a defense that has put the absolute clamps on those first three opponents.

Speaker 2

What are those teams going to be this year?

Speaker 3

We'll see, but I think it's safe to say they have not seen an attack quite to Miami's standard. When they protect the football on offense, they are as dangerous as anybody. We've seen Josh Allen struggle when teams play those high shells and force him to be patient. If it doesn't click right away, he can start to get really out in front of the skis and attack situations that just are not, you know, profitable for the offense.

Now that said, I thought he was at his best in twenty twenty one doing that, and I thought that last year they felt the impact of Brian Dable exiting to take the head coaching job with the Giants. And we'll see if Ken Dorsey can you know, put together a more consistent offense and year number two together. But I think this game, I think it should be a tight game. I think there's routes to victory for both teams.

I think there's things the Buffalo can do to attack potential vulnerabilities of Miami, and I just think we're looking at one of the game's best of the season on the schedule so far. In fact, I think it is the best matchup we've seen through four weeks in terms of rivalry, talent, and importance in the standings. And again, I know this won't be received super well, but this game is more important for them than it is for us. And I say that thinking like it's pretty important for

us too. But if they win, we'll have the same record and a chance to get them back here at home in Week eighteen. And if the Dolphins are as good as we all think they are, that game will be at least for some divisional implications, right, they'll have that attached to it if they're as good as we think they are.

Speaker 2

Now, if the.

Speaker 3

Dolphins win, then yeah, it does shift the landscape quite drastically. And that's why I think it's more important for Buffalo, because a loss to them kind of derails them more than a loss to US would, not saying it ends their season, but a two game lead with that future home date in Week eighteen, two divisional losses on the books for Buffalo and what would amount to a two and a half game deficit against US just four games in, when their final six games are like Dallas, Cincinnati, KSE

US and like Baltimore. I forget exactly who it is, but they have a murderer's row down the stretch. So if you can get this one, you're basically putting yourself in position to be either ahead or with any striking distance when you get to that stretch of the late part of the season, and that would be massive for us obviously. But then also that's why it's important for them,

because they cannot afford to go into that hole. We can afford the results of a loss, although I do not want to, because if you win this game, things get very, very fun.

Speaker 2

It's supposed to be a beautiful day in Buffalo.

Speaker 3

I didn't know this existed, but apparently they do this time around right around seventy degrees sunshine. And before we talk about the storylines, I asked Mike McDaniel, what are some lessons you can take from those two games last winter up in Buffalo and apply to this year.

Speaker 1

Here's coach, you use them for knowing what the experience be like. On the surface level, what you do know is that they're gonna play very hard and together, and they're not going to give anything away, so you have to earn them. It is a different team, so you have to take that with a grain of salt. But

I think you know that. Being so it was the last game that we played in twenty twenty two, which I think technically was twenty three, and you know, it was a hard fought loss down the stretch of the season, and those things they do live with you in terms of what that felt like, and so to me, it really represents the idea of what we have to kind of the p's and the cues that we have to be on to have of a result that's different than the one last year, which well, I know, one thing

to even to even conceive that you have to it's gonna have to be earned. And that's a cool thing about what they do is they make you earn every inch. So it will take a group effort for sixty minutes, there's no doubt in that.

Speaker 3

Before we take that first break and break down Dolphins offense versus Buffalo defense. Some storylines here that three games and twenty twenty two were all decided by three points or a fewer. Of course, the Dolphins win twenty one to nineteen. Down here when Josh Allen skipped a pretty

easy fastball to the turf. Week number fifteen, Dolphins lose thirty two to twenty nine, despite having the football up by a touchdown in the fourth quarter and scoring range Ah that one hurt the wild card round loss thirty four to thirty one. Buffalo wins that after Miami had the ball at midfield with a round two minutes to go and could not convert, although they misspoted the football and third down and really boned us there. Previous Bills

dominance in the series also a big storyline. Prior to last year, the Bills had beaten the Dolphins, break the breaks off the Dolphins. They swept him in twenty twenty one with a point differential of plus fifty, and that was the biggest reason I thought we had to, you know, go get someone like Mike because Buffalo ran rough shot over us every year in the previous regime. Prior to twenty twenty two, Buffalo had won seven straight with an

average margin of nineteen point three points. I think that dominance is long gone. We'll see about Josh Allen's That's a big test for this defense here a Vic Fangio potential masterclass Fangio versus Allen. How can he match up against an elite quarterback like this? Because Allen has ran for a billion yards, He's thrown for a billion touchdowns. He's posted dubs on us and he versus Christian Wilkins.

He's gotten the better of that in terms of the team's success, but I do think that Christian's ability to get into his head's always fun to watch. He drew a penalty on Allen last year in the home game and should have had another one in the playoff game when Josh Allen went to full you know, B mode when he freeked doubt on Wilkins and got knocked over because he tried to block him and then tried to throw a punch or whatever, not a punch, but trying to get into his face, and then walked away when

he realized he wasn't getting the better of that. The number one offense first, the number two defense again. The Bills moved from Fraser to McDermott taking over play calling, but the second year of play calling Harry McDaniel's offense has been a huge boon, the way they've added wrinkles off of their different packages and looks and dressed things up.

I cannot wait to watch them attack this defense this time around, because I think in both the games last year, and you know, having a third string quarterback didn't really let this manifest, but the first game with Tua, they had the Bills defense and some hell there, and of course the elements kind of came into play late there. But I think Miami's ability to take that tape and expand upon it, with their quarterback playing better than any quarterback in the NFL right now, could be a big

benefit for this team. Scoring another thirty forty points in this one, and then again the importance of the game if we win. You know you heard the the ramifications two game lead, the head to head tiebreaker divisional loss for the Bills will be number two. Miami would have

two road divisional wins and four wins in the conference. Like, you're putting a pretty good stranglehold on the tie breaking scenarios if you go get this one, especially with that loss of the Jets is so big, man, because we have two games against the Jets coming up in November and December. And do you really think that Trevor Simeon or Zach Wilson or Tim Boyle can match points to this offense. I don't, so I put those and then a Patriots game at home, Like I kind of think Miami,

I have a pretty good feeling. Miami's going to if they win this game, go into the final Buffalo game five and zero the division. So if they lose at four and one and then you would still if you just win one against Buffalo, that Jets loss is your tiebreaker.

Speaker 2

So Miami essentially gets.

Speaker 3

A game advantage in the division race because of that potential tie breaking scenario.

Speaker 2

So massive. No trophy's gonna be handed out this week.

Speaker 3

No seasons will be ended either, but it's still a huge game with huge playoff implications. Let's go ahead and take our first break and comeback on the other side and break this matchup down.

Speaker 2

I have a lot of notes in this one.

Speaker 3

I spent forty eight hours really kind of watching film and comparing this one. That's next Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by AutoNation.

Speaker 2

You guys know the.

Speaker 3

Scene in Moneyball when Brad Pitt asked Jonah Hill about the rite ups he asked him to do, and he asked him for like eight ride ups, and Jonah Hill said, I did forty seven, and then he goes, I lied, I did fifty three.

Speaker 2

I don't know why I lied. Just now that's me right now, I watched every Bills game.

Speaker 3

I went back through PFF data from last year from this year and was just really into this matchup because I want to win it, and it's fun covering a team that's this damn good.

Speaker 2

Precious field trip. That's a little Chris Farley on Billy Madison for you.

Speaker 3

On a deep cut, Let's talk about Dolphins offense versus the Buffalo Bills defense. You know by now the Dolphins lineup, how the Bills match up with that, our quarterback safety matchup, you know the drill. Poyer and Hyde have both played eighty eight percent plus of the snaps, and they've introduced a new third safety formerly of the Rams and Washington Huskies, Taylor Rapp has played twenty three percent of their snaps. I think you might see more of him this week

because of the pensity. We might see of three safety packages, maybe some dime defense. I mean, the Bills never get out of their Nichols, so we'll find out about that. But those are the three guys they use the most. Christian Benford as their top corner right now one hundred percent of the snaps, White Tradevius has played ninety one and then nobody else over eight. So if you get one injury here, you're introducing a player who just.

Speaker 2

Has not played at all this season.

Speaker 3

Something to keep an eye on, as Dolphins tend to have a way of making cornerback skill a little bit tight in the hamstring area. Not advocating that, I'm just saying like it's something to the keeping eye because the depth there is thin. And the slot Barrio Smyth and Julian Hill, who had a great debut last week, up against Taron Johnson who's played seventy eight percent of the snaps.

He might be their best player on defense. He's awesome, but I also think that his presence makes them play a defense that I just doesn't make a lot of sense to me. We'll talk more about that. On the interior, Williams win and Hunt up against Oliver who played sixty five percent of the snaps this year, Daikwan Jones fifty. You guys remember Jordan Phillips thirty four percent this year.

Then Tim Settle thirty one percent. Off the edge will get more Armstead and Austin Jackson with Gregory Russeau has played sixty percent of the snaps. We got the right cane there, Shaq loss and you guys know him. He and Leonard Floyd have both played forty seven percent of their snaps, and then aj Epinesa forty one and then that linebacker. Both Milano and Terrel Bernard have played ninety one percent of Buffalo snaps. So they have varied mixtures

of edge interior players that you can see there. Like all those percentage that gave you, guys, it's pretty varied. Milano and Bernard play the exact same number of reps, and the dbs are essentially always the same. Again, Rap is the only defensive back that comes into the game aside from those top five guys I mentioned, and then you have eight guys up front who play a lot

because are a lot of numbers there for several guys. Stylistically, it's mostly like power and strength type of players compared to like speed guys. That's Oliver his game, although he's got really good.

Speaker 2

Quicks as well. But Rousseau wants to win.

Speaker 3

With his length in a secondary move and I think Miami has the pieces equipped to handle him. Shaq Lawson and aj Epanessa, I don't think they're scaring anybody in their rush department. I mean I thought Epanes would have more of a career in loss and you know, since he left here hasn't made a big splash. But they are peer power players that want to play through you. And then Floyd has the most juice, I think, but

he's like in his thirties at this point. And then Phillips is super quick inside and Settle is a tree trunks. They have a bit of varied usage there, so they have that mixture of what they can do to beat you. But I think Miami with their run game disguise, can really take advantage of these guys in their overplay because

they're aggressive. They want a one gap and get upfield, and right now, the way our offensive line's going, I just give them them a great chance to solidify their strong start with a proven defense and go whip a Bills front that they whipped last year in that second game up in December. As far as their personnel usage, there's no need to break down their grouping by grouping usage here because if you listen to the podcast regularly.

Speaker 2

You already know what you're gonna get.

Speaker 3

Ninety eight point six percent Nickel deployment. That's five defensive backs with six up in your front part of the formation, and that usually leads to light boxes. It's one hundred percent on third and fourth down, so that means that they're playing it on first down ninety eight point five percent of the time and ninety eight percent on second down. They almost never get out of nickel, although there are some base looks mixed in there, like I mentioned, so

you know you're gonna get defensively on rush plays. This is so fascinating to me. They have six in the box. It's a very like sevens a light box, but six is a super light box. Against the running game, they have thirty snaps and seven in the box on fourteen snaps and then eight down the box, which is a heavy box just seven times. So they're saying we want you to try to run the ball with one on one hat on a hat matchup that you we don't have enough guys to fit the gaps you can play with.

And on those forty four carries against light boxes, teams have a rush success rate of sixty three percent and have produced three hundred and eight yards that's seven yards of clip guys fifty five of the fifty six rush attempts against the Bills. This year came when they were in their nickel defense, and the results are fifty five for three thirty three six point one per carry. That sounds like what Miami's doing to teams. And go back and watch the game in Buffalo with two of last year.

It's an alec ingold game. He's going to kick their ass. He's going to help us run the ball for two hundred yards and I'm sure there's going to be some wrinkles that generate from that in the passing game to play the overplay because Buffalo knows this, they know they have to be aggressive and make sure that we stop our running backs and our tracks because you're also simply not just gonna go away from Tyreek and Waddle and

just let them wilt on the sideline. So I cannot wait to see what McDaniel's response to the response is because he's been the best in the league at that this year. And also those safeties they have, they are a step slower this year. In fact, that defense might be one of the slower defenses in football. That's not a good matchup there. They're thirty three and thirty two years old, and so moster are in a chain speed.

The anglely racing. If you get a big play, you might get to maximize it and take it all the way to Pagert Same with Reek and Waddle. Remember cooked Tredavius White on that twenty five yard touchdown catch last year and Waddle went for like sixty eight or whatever it was where he ran by everybody. I know it wasn't the same two safeties, but those guys, in terms

of next gen stats, are not any faster. I think if you look at the matchup as a way to get your offensive production, you know, consistent ground game, explosive plays, but you do need better conversions on third down and in the red zone. We had two drops in the end zone last year. Sherfield and Tyreek dropped easy touchdowns that led to a field goal. That's four points you left on the board and you lost by three. We also failed on third and short four times. Flip the

script there, convert two of those, extend two drives. That's more points. I think, score the touchdown, that's four more points. I think you can find thirty plus points pretty easily. Scored twenty nine in that game even with those shortcomings. And if they get you in third and long, well that's where they really excel and maximizing that nickel package where they have a swarm of players who can come

or drop and really muddy up your protection. The Dolphins have been stellar this year, iding and keying and finding the blitz because the quarterback has been phenomenal at finding holes in their pass rush with if they go drop seven, drop eight, I mean, let's be real. Defense has been

elite at everything they've done this year. As far as the Bills defense third down defense this year, I think these numbers are very skewed because of their opponents, but whatever, thirty one percent on third down third and seven plus teams are three for fourteen on them compared to six of fifteen and third and medium in short, so third and long is a non starter for opposing offenses that have Sam Howell and Zach Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo. Their

blitz rate is seventeen point two percent. They have two picks three sacks on fifteen dropbacks against the blitz, but they have allowed seven for twelve for seventy seven yards, So they create chaos when they go to that blitz package. Not very unlike Vic Fangio, their non blitz pressure seventy two plays. They create pressure when they don't blitz seventy two times five picks and nine sack.

Speaker 2

That's really good. You have to avoid that.

Speaker 3

Overall, they have a thirty percent pressure rate and that's twelve point eight percentage higher than their blitz rate. That's a very good number for a defense to have. So it's a good defense. But again, their opposition, I don't know all that. What does that tell you? Super super aggressive defense, and they have to be because they're not that fast.

It's driven by a great middle linebacker, Matt Mulano. But they want to play lots of variations of too high two man and use those very intelligent safeties boy're in hide to disguise their coverage. So Tua against that I think is paramount. I mean, let's actually go ahead and hear from Mike right now, because this is a great place to interject this. He talked on Wednesday about TUIs preparation,

and I think that that is the key rate. Here is how TUA deciphers what coverage they're in on a given snap.

Speaker 2

Here's coach.

Speaker 3

He was asked about Tua's enthusiasm during the last game, hyping up Mike White on the long touchdown dropping by toront Armstead's press conference postgame, but he took it further and talked about TUIs preparation where that confidence he plays what comes from because he has no doubts or regrets about the way he prepared all week long, because he's fully committed and invested. I just gave you the whole quote, but here's coachingway.

Speaker 1

Obviously he enjoys the positivity from outside looking in. But what I think is, you know, he really the source of what you're seeing is a guy that is one hundred percent prepared and committed for him to do what he has a God given skill set that's very unique and special and he's able to showcase that and has no harbors, no regrets or I should have wold I could a by his daily process. I mean he is. He is fully invested. He's every walk through that we

just had to walk through, every walkthrough. It's not like he's he's in a great mood joking around. He is so focused. And that's what you know. The kind of vision is for a lot of the guys is to understand how you know, we work, you prepare all week so that Sunday can be fun because that is you, That is that is a part of your identity, that man, you've earned and you should go enjoy it. And you're able to enjoy it when you're not cramming for a test.

And on top of that, he's starting to see, you know, the power that that he holds at that position when you are in charge of giving the play and executing each and every play with ball handling and assignments. But what it can do for teammates, because that's that's the best thing about football is you're not you're not an

independent contractor where much of life is that. Now you have a group of people that wow, the what I how I work, and then what my talents are those combined have residual effects on a lot of people's journeys. So I think he's very much leaning into and enjoying that more than any of the necessary I mean, the results are that's really cool for him. I know he's happy with that, but he's I think he's more happy with who he is as a man, as a father and his a husband and a professional athlete.

Speaker 3

And that's where these two guys hide and employer I think make their money. Their ability to show one thing and rotate to something else. They'll come down and show pressure, phantom pressure. They'll roll out, they'll double row where they both jump crossers, they'll invert where they come down and play the corner. Let the wide corners flip back and play the safety role. It's a great chest match between these two guys, and to a tongue of by low, but I just like to wear a quarterback is seeing

it right now. Upfront, they want to one gap and play downhill and that could create some issues that the Dolphins can if they can do what they've been doing and craft the game plan that capitalizes on that overplay. And again it's easier said than done, but the way the Dolphins have utilized motion, crackbacks, play action, end around jet sweep action, split versus full flow, it's just a lot to deal with. Like I'm sure you're sitting there saying,

what the hell did you just say? That's how opposing defenses have to react as well. And I think the combination of our line play two was released and the offensive design all kind of play equal parts. Not to mention they've put so much on tape, you have to prepare for that coach can just pull the rug out and do something completely different, and all of a sudden, you've spent two days game planning for a run game

that you just never see and you know. It's a big part of why I think Tua is the least pressured quarterback in football. His stats really shine a light on his ability. He has the second lowest pressure to sack rate at four point five percent. Only Mahomes is lower, and the third place quarterback in that regards eight point five percent. So he is again like he is most stats besides Mahomes here lapping the field and how he gets away from pressure. The Bills pressures by individual nothing

pops off the tape here. Oliver has ten that leads the team. Rousseau, Floyd, and Daikwan Jones all have eight. Epanessa, Lawston, and Phillips all have five, and that goes back to what coach and about how they play as a team together.

Speaker 2

Very true.

Speaker 3

Bernard and Milano both have two. They're off ball linebackers, only nineteen pass rush reps among them. Not a frequently blitzing team, the fourth lowest rate in the National Football League. But getting at Oliver blocked inside to me is the key of this entire group as far as run stops. Bernard leads in with nine, Oliver and Milano both has six, Jones has five or so, and Floyd have four, and

then Johnson, Ployer, and Hide all have three. And that's interesting to me because those three guys having nine, those safeties are the ones that have to come down and support the run game because they just do not line up with enough hats and gaps in terms of their front seven. Those guys have to be solid against the run. If Raheem Moster devon Ah Chain makes those guys miss,

they're not going to have a good time. It's interesting because I think these teams are constructed relatively similarly in that the offense can score by the time you finished blinking, and ideally they get you behind big early in the scoreboard and make you one dimensional. The Bills were able to do that against the Commanders and Raiders the last two weeks and just bullied and battered them on third downs.

Commanders were one for nine on third down, ran the ball just thirteen times, but it did go for one hundred and five yards, So that furthers the point that if you can run the ball volume, you can get your stats, sustained drives and score points. The Raiders went three for seven on third downs, but they had just thirteen first downs compared to Buffalo's twenty nine and could only run the ball fifteen times as a result, picking

up just fifty five yards in the process. They also turned it over three times, which is obviously a problem. But go back to Week one, and this game is a bit of an anomaly because Allen had four turnovers in that one and it kept the Jets and Zach Wilson in the game. But because the score was so close, the Jets ran twenty eight times for a buck seventy two and they were five for thirteen on third downs.

Not great, but considering the quarterback in the game, who can't complete a pass in this league, that's pretty.

Speaker 2

Good for them.

Speaker 3

Anytime you look at opposing units, you try to figure out the guys outside the all pros, right Channing Crowder always tells a story about when he got to Miami, it was Zach j T Junior.

Speaker 2

Sam Who do you think they're going to attack Crowder?

Speaker 3

It's you. You get the rabbit hat. In Buffalo, you look at Hyde, Poyer, White, Malano Tarron Johnson. Really the entire defensive line, and you look at the guys who don't have those, and you're gonna call me crazy here, but I'm gonna pick out two players where I put

the rabbit hat. Number one's Christian Benford, a sixth round draft pick who beat out first round pick kayri Elam who never sees the field at cornerback, and second year linebacker last year's Defensive Player of the Week Terrell Bernard. Why am I doing that? Because both those guys are playing well. Bernard had a ton of splash plays last week,

got that award for himself. He also leads the team in run stops, and they completed nine of twelve passes on him for ninety eight yards on seventy seven coverage snaps, throwing at him. That's exactly why right there. He is very instinctive. He wants to play downhill. I think Miami uses that to their advantage. I think they involve the running backs in the passing game on him and go after him. I think they also go after Benford, who has given up just sixty eight yards on ninety four

coverage snaps. But you know, I know one yard per coverge snap is great and he's well below that, but watch the tape.

Speaker 2

This is a damn good unit.

Speaker 3

Terran Johnson does what he always does, fifty three yards and eighty one snaps. He's just so smooth in his transitions. I think they'll really try to let him win when we put our spiad merchants inside. But even then, do you ever feel good about going one on one against Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell. I wouldn't they play super aggressive?

They go a light box and then challenge you on the outside and try to get home with four Milano one of the best cover backers of the last decade or so, so you might not be able to get much from the backs on him. But I think you do go after Bernard that way, and I think it's why you attack with the commitment to the running game to force their structure to move downhill and create that

space in the passing game behind it. And it made me curious to watch how teams who operate heavily in twelve or twenty one personnel fair against this defense that is exclusively a nickel defense. We were one of the top teams in that regard last year at the number one non eleven personnel offenses, and with Tua in the game, we averaged six point three six yards per play against Buffalo they allowed five point one. On the season, they faced two of the other teams who were in top

five of non eleven personnel packages. What that means is there's more tight ends of running backs in the field than typical. The Niners were the only team they did not see who fit that criteria, but Baltimore and Minnesota were on their schedule, and Minnesota averaged six point oh eight yards per play, Baltimore just four point sixty three. But the four team totals versus Buffalo from that group last year fourteen hundred yards on two hundred and thirty

eight plays. It was good for five point eight six yards per play compared to four point eight nine yards per play otherwise about a full yard more. So you can see why it's a big difference there. Stylistically, they play seventy one percent zone versus twenty nine percent man, so they're not gonna let Tyree and Jalen Ren and man cover John them all day. Single high is just is the thirtieth lowest in the NFL, and they run split safety fifty two percent of the time. That's the

second highest in the league. And they played the most bump and run, which is a lot of two man man under half half zone that's typically beat by middle of the field shots, the deep ball to Wattle last year on both games that I should say, honey hole shots to the perimeter, and also the running game. I think we've shown proficiency in all those categories to provide

problems for this Bill's defense. And the more I about this, the more I think I just like the Dolphins in this game so much because I think Buffalo's defense is very good, but I think it's propped up by those teams they've played, and the best offenses just don't get stopped.

Speaker 2

Not in today's league.

Speaker 3

Your best bet is to keep the roof on and try to make us kick field goals in the red zone. Nobody better at that in the league than the Patriots, and we are two missed field goals away from breaking thirty in that game as well. Now I think Buffalo is going to do it differently. I think you're gonna see light boxes, no blitzing, and uber aggressive corner play. And the issue there to go back to Christian Benford and Tredivious White is White wants no part of bump

and run against Tyreek and Jalen. They cooked him last year with that, and then go watch Benford and rerouting. It's the biggest weakness in his game. So he likes to grab two so penalties some shots to those two receivers. I think we run the ball for six plus yards per carry. I think we attack vertically and hit some deep shots on this defense and force them out of that to go back to, you know, keep the shell on and play ball underneath. I think we can top

thirty and push for forty in this game. Can we hold the Bills under that? Let's go ahead and take a break and comeback on the side and find out. Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by I don't know you took up the entire allotment of the show on Dolphins offense first Bill's defense. So go ahead and finish up here on the other side. And it starts obviously with Josh Allen.

Speaker 2

He does not leave the field. The receivers.

Speaker 3

Tefon Diggs has played eighty percent this year, gave Davis eighty one and then Khalil Shaker on the outside sixteen percent. Inside sherfield you guys know him thirty four percent, with Deontay Hartney twenty percent, and then their two tight ends Knox and King Kid seventy one and sixty three percent respectively. They have a new interior offensive line. Connor McGovern was

kind of their big free agent get from Dallas. He pivots to guard though, and then Osiris Torrance was an early draft pick of Theirs, and he's clicked pretty well for them. And then Mitch Moore. You guys know him. He's been the center there for a long long time. Off the edge, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, one of those guys is great. One of those guys. We have a matchup advantage there.

Speaker 2

More on that in a moment.

Speaker 3

And then at running back, James Cook is is their go to guys sixty percent of the workload, and then Latavious Murray twenty three percent, and I just forgot his name, Damien Harris, sorry, formerly the Patriots just fifteen percent.

Speaker 2

This year.

Speaker 3

They do trot out a fullback for ten percent of their snaps. And again it all starts at the quarterback position. Josh Allen is hell to defend. You can do everything right from a rule standpoint, and he can still make a play on you. And you know, he gets a lot of crap for the inaccurate passes or the turnover plays or the bonehead decisions, but at the end of the day, he is the best creator off script maybe of all time, with the ability to threaten you in

the running game as well. But he also lives on the edge of dazzling and head scratching, so it's like a give or take, and it kind of He's kind of the guy that I think bucks what current quarterback scouting is, like everyone's.

Speaker 2

Like armstrng run the ball six foot six.

Speaker 3

Yeah, rare, yeah, but like you have to learn to live with the misses on layups and the turnovers because on the back and he pays you off with more explosive plays because of the nature with which how he plays the game. So you know, we talked about this going back to twenty twenty with how many chances we've had for takeaways on this guy and we just never get them until last year's final two games, which ironically

were both losses. But the Week three game last year, like or back in twenty twenty, rather the Week two game, we had like five turnover opportunities and didn't get them and lost the game by three. Same story the following year, and then last season the first game, didn't get the takeaways early on, had chances for it, but eventually stopped them on downs a couple of times, and then again last year in the late games four turnovers or for

Miami's defense, three turnovers in that game. Then this year week number one against the Jets, they turned the ball over four times and scored just thirteen points. Last two games, no Allen turnovers, and if sure enough, they rolled to massive victories with thirty points in both those games. And as far as the Bills record the last two seasons this year and last, when Allen turns the ball over

two times or more, they're two and four. When he has a single turnover or none, they're fourteen to Oh.

Speaker 2

So there you go.

Speaker 3

And last year we saw Javon Holland have an excellent spy rap on him. We covered pretty well early, but eventually he made some plays. I'm really curious to see what Vic dials up here, because he's shown you that he will call it opponents specific you know, blitz or not and we saw the Dolphins be effective with the you know, making him play patient last year, and we saw them have a pretty good playoff game by just

coming after him NonStop. So there's multiple ways to do this and trying to find a way to limit Stefon Diggs. To me, that's the key. He's the straw that stirs the drink. I'm not sure what the matchups look like here obviously, but I think that if you go look, look, I'll put it this way, do not let Examing Howard

covers Toefon Diggs one on one. Either help him heavy in that matchup or go cater And even then I'd help Cater on Diggs because I think the play here is to go X on Davis because that's physical on physical and even though ex is struggling again this year, I think that's a good matchup for him, and then Cater on Diggs with an eye of help, and maybe you get Apple on a Sure or Shakur. Those are the matchups you have to win one on one, Davis one on one and then Sherfield or Shaker one on one.

Speaker 2

Win those matchup on the tight ends.

Speaker 3

And I like our chances to do that because our tight ends are very good in coverage, especially Javon Holland, who's.

Speaker 2

Playing really well right now.

Speaker 3

I think Deshaun Elliott's had two good games in a row, and then the potential of possibly Brandon Jones getting back into the fold here and speaking of you know, tight ends and jamming into the formation and running the football,

I think the same thing applies. What we talked about on our side of the ball is that our defense traditionally plays lighter boxes, and James Cook has ran the ball well, but if you can get them out of that early on and shut them down in the run game early, they have a propensity to go away from it.

And I think that's why you brought in David Long to help you have more range and instincts with light boxes to shoot gaps and make plays to limit a running offense that can really make them one dimensional and put an explosive play but more of a turnover worthy play, pro and quarterback in more peril by making them play one dimensionals.

Speaker 2

That's kind of the hope there.

Speaker 3

As far as their personnel, eleven personnel just thirty seven percent of the time they do operate from twelve personnel forty five percent so those two tight ends are out there a lot together, and then twenty one personnel, two backs with that fullback eight percent, and they sprinkle in some variations of two thirteen and twenty two, which is, you know, multiple backs and tight ends back there as well.

Speaker 2

So I think you're going.

Speaker 3

To see lots of bass, which to me is a good thing because it means less Eli Apple and more of an extra linebacker or a defensive lineman like a Van Ginkel, maybe a Rakwon Davis, or maybe even a third safety.

Speaker 2

I think Brandon Jones could be.

Speaker 3

A guy you roll out a big Nickel package this week and utilize Deshaun or Brandon as kind of a box defender or a spy on Josh Allen.

Speaker 2

That might be the way to go here.

Speaker 3

And I wonder if you would be able to do that and continue to match up on the tight ends that they want to throw the ball to, you know, frequently in this game with Knox and King Kid, because I think that Allen can match up there really well. And then Deshaun Elliott two is that might be kind of my move there is use Brandon Jones as kind of that rat in the whole, that fifth rusher and then have your two safeties that have been playing mostly be more cover guys.

Speaker 2

I don't know, there's lots of options.

Speaker 3

Let's go ahead and finish up on the inside here because the pressures allowed for the bills go as follows. Spencer Brown the right tackle has allowed nine. That leads the team this year more than any Miami Dolphin so as much Morse he has seven, that's the second most. At the center position. McGovern and Torrance the guards six and five respectively, and then Dion Dawkins at left tackle five. He's pretty locked down. JP had his best game last

year I think against Spencer Brown whipped him. I think you can expect to get more of that if he gets more one on one chances. But what you really need here, I think is Wilkins and sealer to really give it to Torrance and McGovern inside because with the occasional blitz as well, because if you can move those guys off their spot, you're going to create more chances for big plays with Josh extending, but also more chances he puts the ball.

Speaker 2

In harm's way. And that's how you beat this team.

Speaker 3

If you turn this team over twice, I think on Sunday, I think you roll to a pretty easy victory. So my keys to victory are Number one, keep the run game rolling. We heard two of his press conference on Wednesdays say that these guys are gonna line up in nickel, They're going to show you what they want to do, and they're going to run it, and you have to go beat them. I think Miami's equipped to do that.

And if you want to line up in one thing and not disguise, good freaking luck against this offense, you have to exploit those matchups. You have to stay out a third and long and go after their light defense with your heavy twenty one twelve personnel attack and run the football. I expect two hundred more yards here. Number two, create splash plays on defense. You heard it the turnover stat. Get two takeaways on Josh, you'll win the game. And the third key to victory is protect against the Bills

four man rush. If they can generate pressure without blitzing, that's obviously playing right into their hand. Force them to change what they do to try to make two uncomfortable, and then you can start hitting big explosives if you stay patient and beat that four man pass rush with consistency. Okay, I predicted thirty twenty seven in Game one against the Chargers, pretty close. We came out on top there thirty six thirty four. I went thirty one to seventeen. In Game two.

I think those two missfield goals were the reason we didn't get within a point there at thirty to seventeen winds up being twenty four to seventeen. And then I said forty four to twenty four last week. Now, I think I get a pass for not predicting seventy but predicting forty four. That's pretty uncommon, Like people don't usually go that high. It's usually in the in the low thirties.

As this high as we'll go. And then just you know, four points off from Denver score, which I gave him that much because of the garbage time production I expected the kickoff return. This week, I'm gonna go even more specific and tell you exactly how this game will go. You ready, the Dolphins will get the football in the middle of the third quarter with a thirty one to thirty lead, and Tua is going to take us right down the field with a brilliant mix of run and pass.

We score a touchdown we go for two, which Seth and oj are going to hate. But I love making it a two possession game whenever you can, because if you miss, they still have to score. Go down the whole field and score a touchdown and like.

Speaker 2

But they don't score a two point conversion there, Travis.

Speaker 3

Yeah, but you can make it a two score game, which is way more valuable than making it an eight point game.

Speaker 2

They go for two, they get it. It's thirty nine to thirty.

Speaker 3

Buffalo gets the ball back with less than two minutes, trailing by two scores, and we turn Josh Allen over and the Dolphin go to four and oh and come home very very happy.

Speaker 2

That's your podcast.

Speaker 3

We'll have Joe Marino from Lockdown Bills on tomorrow, and Tracy Wolfson, the great CBS sile On reporter, will join us for the podcast on Friday as well. Plenty more coming your way this week on the Draft Time podcast, But in the meantime, that will be my time you all. Please be sure to subscribe to the podcast on Apple, on Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts from. Leave us a rating, leave us a review. You can follow me on Twitter at linkfold NFL. Follow the team at Miami Dolphin.

Check out the Fish Tank podcast with Seth and Juice. Check out the YouTube channel for media availabilities and Dolphins Today, much much more. At last, but not least, Miami Dolphins dot Com. Until next time, fins up, Carolina Cameron Daddy, He's coming Hold

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