Drive Time: Dolphins Bills Week 18 Preview

It's Dolphins and Bills for the Division on primetime. Let's get it from the Baptist Hill Studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is the Draft Time Podcast. May guess I think we'll start this portion of the podcast differently than we usually do with the introduction, because you know, the Bills, you know the drill just a crash course.

Here a team that has recently really taken construction under the traits of their quarterback and maximizing his ability to lead them to the promised lamb and done it yet hadn't even got there yet. But that said, this is a team that has really leaned on defensive play making

and the ground game lately. A team that has ridden defensive splash plays, and that running game one hundred and eighteen yards to two hundred and nine yards rushed versus pass against the Chiefs, the one that really kicked off this winning streak for them, eighty five yards passing in two sixty six versus Dallas on the ground, then two thirty pass one h five versus the Chargers, but last week again one twenty seven on the ground compared to

one fifty four through the air versus the Patriots. And in those games two takeaways one takeaway zero and then four in the game last they won us a game by six points with a four to one turnover margin. Gosh, if the Patches protect the football, this is probably already a rap for the division. But they've been through a crazy season. And I said this all off season long, those who were riding off the bills, Well, I think I said that it was stupid to do it, But

then you looked right, So maybe I was stupid. But now they're playing better, and some folks have them ticketed for a Super Bowl run, or at least the biggest threat to Baltimore to do so. And now I find myself as the ultimate contrarian. Once again because I'm just not so sure about that. I think the performances against

lesser teams can be telling. And the Bills were a third down to nine pass breakup that the guy probably should have had and he missed it by an inch against the Chargers from losing that game two weeks ago. Then they gave Bailey Zappi a shot to win the game with a ninety three yard six minute drive. He couldn't do it, obviously because he's Billy Zappy, but it

was there for them. And this goes back to the off season once again, because this is where I understood the argument they wouldn't get better, but knowing the coaching staff and the quarterback and the continuity they have on defense, but they were going to be fine, right They are fine. They're going to make the playoffs most likely, most likely. But on balance, they didn't really give alan more weapons. The offensive line got better, mostly because of the health

of that offensive line, but the injuries on defense. They've just kind of been decent all year long. They very easily could have lost games of the Giants, Bucks, Chargers, and the Patriots last week, which any of those losses would have made this game a one o'clock kickoff, right because the Dolphins have it all wrapped up. Or if Mammy beats the Titans, oh, just win the game because there's so many what ifs in the schedule for us. But then they also have late game dramatics and they

win over the Chiefs, they roll up the Cowboys. Just a wild, wild season, and the result of it is they get to come to Miami to play a game they are favored to win. And I think that has more to do with the injuries than anything else. And I get that we're banged up and that those lines are more perception based than anything, but man, the Dolphins are seven to one in that building across the street.

They are nineteen and three in their last twenty two games in that same building over that span at Home one and Ozer over Buffalo. All right, that's a slight sidetrack from where we were going. And I just walked myself into a point that annoys me because back to the Bills, They've overcome some pretty serious injuries, but they

got back a huge piece in Daikwan. Jones last week made probably the best trade of the entire deadline trade deadline by acquiring Rasoul Douglas to essentially fill the void left by Trey White, and he's played better than Trey White ever was. And as the Dolphins are very banged up, they've gotten healthier. I mentioned Jones, They got Dawson knocks back, Micah Hides back in the lineup after missing some games, so they'll be at full strength. They're gonna want to

win this game. They're gonna want to get a tonement for last year, and they're gonna want a toement for what's been a difficult up and down season. But as tough as it's been, either of these teams has a real real shot to put themselves in great position for a postseason run. That two seed compared to the six or seven is a major difference, not just in your competition, but obviously in the venues those games will take place.

You go from potentially two home playoff games to having to win three road games just to make this Super Bowl. Let's actually bump what's at stake to this portion of the show, because I think it's important to get the scenarios out there for you guys right away. So number one off the top, the Dolphins can play the Chiefs in the wildcard round. If they lose the Bills, that's it. You lose to Buffalo, you go to KC. You can host the Bills in the wildcard round with these following scenarios.

If you beat Buffalo and then Jacksonville beats Tennessee and Baltimore beats Pittsburgh, or you beat Buffalo and Tennessee beats Jacksonville, so that one flips right and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore. Like there are some funky scenarios that equate to this. So verst Buffalo if you beat them, and then the Jacksonville Tennessee result has to coincide with the Baltimore Pittsburgh result

to make this happen. Now, you can play Pittsburgh at home. Ideal, right, if you beat Buffalo and if Jacksonville beats Tennessee and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore. And by the way, the line for Pittsburgh Baltimore already came out. The Steelers are favored, which tells you Lamar Jackson will not play in that game. So on Saturday you're rooting for Pittsburgh, I think, And then if that happens that way, you root for Jacksonville, and if Baltimore wins, then you root for the Titans.

Does that make sense? You can also play Pittsburgh at home if you beat Buffalo, Tennessee beat Jacksonville, Baltimore beats Pittsburgh, but Denver beats Las Vegas. Where the hell does that come from? I don't know that's how it works. You can host the Jaguars if you beat Buffalo. If Tennessee beats Jacksonville and Baltimore beats Pittsburgh, but Las Vegas beats Denver, that crazy? What the hell man? Crazy scenario is here? I think we all agree the best case scenario here

is the two seed and seeing Pittsburgh or Jacksonville. Right, let me do it this way for you in terms of your rooting guide. So if Baltimore wins on Saturday, Tennessee must beat Jacksonville non negotiable, and then the Vegas and Denver game, two teams who don't give a hell about the rest of their season. That will decide your opponent. And in fact, this could be the dream scenario because if if you get Baltimore to win on Saturday, and I think it's a real possibility, actually I'm gonna pick

the Ravens to win that game. Even with Snoop Huntley. I think their backup quarterback is better than every quarterback the Steelers have, so I wouldn't it picked them, And then you'd need Tennessee to beat Jacksonville, and that I would not feel as good about. But here's the thing. If you get those two results in those games, the Bills clinch and they clinch the sixth seed. And look, if we have to play buff in the playoffs whatever, bringing up baby, but we're looking for the ideal path, right.

This would set the bracket like this case and Buffalo three to six, Houston or Indy versus Cleveland in the four to five game, and then US versus either Jacksonville or Pittsburgh depending on that freaking Raiders and Broncos game. I am going to assume Buffalo wins in case. In that event, I'll pick Miami in Casey as well, which would make for a trip to Baltimore for that six seeded team. That means, if you then beat Pittsburgh or Jacksonville, you would then draw the winner of Cleveland and in

versus Houston and India or Indy. And of course, if Case won, that's who we would host. But if Buffalo wins, you would then get Jacksonville or Pittsburgh and then Cleveland, Houston or Indy. Like we've beaten those teams by double digit scores all year long, haven't we. But I think I'm picking either us or Buffalo in that game in Arrowhead,

by the way, that's the dream. The other scenario is Pittsburgh wins the Saturday game, and that's probably what you want to root for, because then Jacksonville is playing for the division and will probably beat the Titans. Right most likely, I don't know, maybe not it's the NFL, but I think Baltimore beats pitt and I think jackson wins too, So that brings us to the two most likely scenarios and being the two that we probably want the least.

Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, Jacksonville beats Tennessee, then we play the Steelers. But if Tennessee beats Jacksonville after pitt wins, then Buffalo turns right back around and comes here for Wildcard weekend.

And all those scenarios require us winning on Sunday night, because if we lose, there's one option, a trip to KC, and in that bracket, Buffalo probably draws the winner of Houston and Indy in the two seven game, and they're gonna beat that team, and then we get KC, and then we would get to go to Baltimore in the next round unless Houston or Indy upset Buffalo in the wildcard rounds. So basically, if you lose on Saturday night, it's at CAC or on Sunday night, it's at KC

at Baltimore in your first two rounds. Fun some storylines here. A division championship could be the first since two thousand and eight, fifteen years ago. Also means the first home playoff game in that same time span. Based on the results, you could eliminate Buffalo from the playoffs. That's the dream, right. Don't you want to go the next six months, seven months here talking about how you knocked the Bills out

of the playoffs to win the division. I don't want to talk for the next six months to Bills fans about the three game lead to be blue. That's what I want. Your recent run against Buffalo. Every team seems to have that one team that gives them the biggest problems, and for us, it's freaking Buffalo, right. They have won nine to the last ten but the one was the last time they've visited here. It will be a night game compared to a September one pm game, so they

can't blame OSHA for this one. They've won the AFC East last three years. Would love to end that streak. And if we win, it'll be the first time since eight that somebody besides New England and Buffalo won the AFC East. The Jets haven't won it since, like freaking the Reagan administration. Overcoming injuries is a big storyline here. Dolphins will be without left guard one, center one, maybe wide receiver two. We'll see about Waddell. Got some good

news about him on Wednesday. We'll see if he goes cornerback one or rather cornerback two. I shouldn't say exaving Howard probably not gonna play. Outside linebackers one and two Chubbin Phillips out, and then we'll see about running back one, rahe Moster. I assume he goes Robert Hunt. Right guard one I assume he goes as well, and middle linebacker one Jerome Baker, who was injured and returned to practice

on Wednesday. If they can win this game, it'll be a big feather in the cap of several key figures McDaniel his staff to I've talked about legacy games a little bit. This could potentially be a positive legacy game, even though we're gonna get a whole bunch more of them in the future down the road. All right, Oh yeah, I almost forgot whether it's supposed to be in the low sixties at kickoff, and there's a twenty five percent chance of reign but a pretty nice January South Florida.

Even Let's go ahead and pick this up here before our first break and talk about the Bills lineup on defense versus the Miami offense. So the safeties, this is the first time they're gonna have these two guys in the lineup since twenty twenty one against US Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde and then Taylor Rapp is the third safety. And my goodness to drop off in that third safety position for the Bills has been vast this year when

they've not had these top two guys. But also like these guys are in their thirties now that's in It shows a little bit I think for both of them. Cornerback Rusull Douglas a ninety eight percent snap taker since the trade. He has been a boon for them. Man, I wish the Packers would not have done that for a third round draft pick. It wasn't even a third round pick. It was a three and five swap. Hey,

thanks Green Bay. He had jerks. Christian Benford plays seventy five percent of the snaps, and then Dame Jackson plays forty two percent off the edge as well, and then their slot cornerback is the guy that almost never leaves the field. In fact, when he's healthy, he's played all of the snaps, but he plays eighty nine percent on balance in that slot position. On the interior, de Kwon Jones has played just thirteen percent of the snaps, but

he is back after missing most of the season. At Oliver's played two thirds of the snap and he's having a breakout campaign. And Tim Settle is a nose tackle specialist. He plays thirty six percent of the snaps off the edge. Greg Russeau fifty four percent, and Leonard Floyd fifty three So those are their top edge rushers. And then they kind of have a nice little change up here because

Russeau and Floyd are more speed bendy guys. And then Epanessa thirty six percent and shack loss and thirty percent are the heavy handed kind of base down run stuffing ends, if that makes sense. And then at linebacker, no Matt Milano, so Terrell Bernard has seen his workload increase in ninety two percent, with Tyrell Dotson playing fifty one percent. So there are some injuries here. Matt Milano, Trey White, Jordan

Phillips are all down for the game. Taylor rap has had some injuries as well, so we'll see if he can play. But they're they're healthy, man, Like, They're as

healthy as anybody is in the league right now. It feels like other personnel usage, the nickel package that was ninety eight percent used last year and back in Week four has changed, and that's probably because of the personnel issues they've had in terms of injuries, and also, like, here's why it's not really a change, because they've had all those injuries in particular Matt Milano, which along with Taron Johnson, is kind of the clue to the exclusive

nickel defense they want to run. But as a result, they've just run more dime sixteen percent dime this year. So you're still at ninety six percent of the time

when they are not in a base defense. Look, I think the better way to look at this first and second down they're a nickel eighty eight and eighty nine percent respectively, with forty one percent dying defense on third down, and that probably coincides with third and six plus right, like you're gonna be dying when it's third long, probably your nickel defense when it's third and short to medium. They're also in dime on eight percent of first downs

and eight percent of second downs. So you can dictate some of this flow here, I think. And this is where I'm excited about the potential return of Robert Hunt and Raheem Moster and all you know, borrow coach McDaniel's crystal ball routine here, but about whether or not they return. But I keep thinking about the game of Buffalo last year, where we had all kinds of success running off the

right side of the offensive line. And I think the addition of Austin Jackson, for that matter, is a much more deadly combination than Rob Hunt and Brandon Shell, which is what it was last year. Now, if you get Rob Hutt and Austin Jackson, saddle up boys. So between all of that and the inclusion of Devon a Chan, who really really stood out in that first game. I

think that's one route to some offensive production. You could take a heavy dose of the run game against a defense that is just purely by the numbers of groupings inviting you to run the football, get that on early downs, staying out of third and long, staying consistent with it,

and creating opportunities off the play pass game. There's a route to a good amount of points here for Miami, but they, of course, we'll have to execute for four quarters and hope the defense doesn't put you into press mode, which at this point they haven't proven they can not do that, So we'll see what happens with it. I expect us to come out and move the ball and score early, but how do we adjust, which I think has been the issue versus Baltimore, versus Tennessee versus Buffalo

last time. Can we find second half offense? Can we score with the Bills if they go off again, You're gonna have to And that's where I get worried. Man, Can we hold their offense? Can we just get some Allen turnovers for once against us? Please? Because he puts them up against everybody else, can we create some of those. Let's go ahead and take a break before we come back and talk about the personnel and how it matches the scheme and also the defensive side of the football

as well. All that next Draft Time podcast to Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation. All right, so we talked about the scheme, but how does the personnel for the Buffalo Bills defense match that scheme? As we preview Dolphins and Bills on Sunday Night Football here, so they have Poyer and hide together for the first time since twenty one. That's hard to believe. And what does that mean.

It means a defense that ranks third and split safety pre snap looks at fifty four percent, twenty eighth and single high at forty three percent. And what this allows them to do is to disguise where the help is, who's buzzing crossers, who's wheeling out and going up high when they go to those three high shells that you get from Cover three or Cover six, And ultimately they are successful at muddying the picture that buys their front

four that extra half second to affect the quarterback. We saw it in the last game too, did not get moved off the spot and just shreded these guys up and layer in the game with more pressing, more passing situations, move them off the spot, cover up some of those looks with coverage looks. Beat the Dolphin banged up offensive line at that point with t Stead and Connor Williams out of the game, and get after him. It changes the course of the game. That's how they want to

play it. And they're gonna span the hell out of the middle of the field, which seems to be what teams have done to us lately. Right, they'll zone turn it's all zone. They rank ninth and zone coverage at forty four percent twenty two percent. Man is twenty fourth the NFL, so one fifth at the time. They'll go to a man look and they mix it up. All

defenses do that, you have to. The one element they won't have though, that is so critical is Matt Mulano and over the two years of his current Dolphins offensive makeup, the teams that have given to and this offense the most issues are the ones who have premiere off ball linebacker play. And my favorite analyst, Daniel Jeremiah on Twitter

made a point about this the other day. The two current best teams in the NFL to me or San Francisco and Baltimore, which I think everyone agrees, is that invested in that position more than anybody else during an era where that position has almost been devalued. And they got Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, and they got ro Qwan Smith and Patrick Queen. And aren't they happy they

have that. We've also had this disc USh previously. The reason I prefer to a skill set any day of the week, but especially in twenty twenty three, is defensive willingness to play off and protect the deep portion of the field, which can eliminate some of the creativity and splash plays that modern quarterbacks are making, right, But rather, I'd rather be more efficient operating in this newly allotted space you have opposed to trying to big play hunt

and force deep shots with your laser rocket arm, but that the one way you can do both is with incredibly rangy, instinctive, great middle linebacker play. Right. The Bills had that in Milano, but also second year linebacker Terrell Bernard has sort of stepped up into that role and become a playmaker who's really really clicked in that role. So to me, their four best players are middle of the field guys and in the back seven, in particular

Bernard poyer Hyde and Tarin Johnson. They also return Daiquon Jones to rejoin at Oliver inside. So it's a defense that the teeth right down the middle is where they

are strongest. So for Miami, how do you adjust? We saw a lot of success in the middle field passing game versus the Ravens last week, up and down the field the whole first half right one punt, a one handed full sprint pick from a two hundred and fifty pound player, and a drop from the best wide receiver of the National Football League takes It's at least a seven point swing right, four for the touchdown, three for

a potential field goal. If Smith does not make that pick, you probably have a chance to be leading at halftime. If you don't drop a touchdown and you don't get an all world pick from a linebacker. I thought the Ravens put more bodies inside and you got that second I int as a result, So I have a hard time imagining Buffalo doing anything different than that. So the question becomes, how do you a beat that? And b get them out of it. Well. We saw Raheem Mostert

last year go crazy in the game up there. We saw Devon a Chan go crazy in the game up there this year. In the October first game, we had four runs for fifty six yards off the right edge, two for twenty one off the left edge. In the game last December ten runs off right tackle or off that b gap in the right tackle for ninety two yards. That's the Hunt shell combo to get Hunt Jackson back this week. I think there's a pretty good chance you do.

That would be nice, wouldn't it, Because if you get that outside running game going, that's how you put that mic linebacker in peril. That's how you prevent those safeties from false stepping and changing the pitcher by cheating to one side of the formation or towards the run of the pass, whatever it might be. Put them on their horse to the perimeter a couple of times and make them realize those false steps are actually creating passing lanes

and getting you out of your defensive fits. So you really need to find a way to strike that balance of run and pass. In this game, I thought we did an awesome job in the screen game early versus Baltimore, which is another way to stress that idea. Especially early in the game. They got Michael Pierce's big butt run and laterally and it didn't wear him down towards the end because he was productive. But it's the same concept. They get those lines stretched out and those guys were

taking the cheese before. They kind of adjusted and made good plays off of that. But that's a challenge for the coaching staff to find a way to adjust to the adjustment, and Buffalo probably starts that way. So maybe you start with the adjustments off the top, but the quarterback Tua was manipulating those spots. In the passing game, we spring a forty five yard run. Those are things this offense is always going to be able to get to. But when you face a team that can score, can

you do it for sixty minutes? That's the key that or a stop would be nice too. I think having to run Armstead. The improved communication each week we see inside with Liam playing better with each repealy and it's kind of ironic, isn't It is ironic the right word here full circle. That first game at center against Buffalo was his first game in that position. Now here we are to finish the season in that same spot, and I think the growth there has been as good as

any player this entire season. Which I was hard on lim in the beginning. It was a low bar to a middle level climb, but he's made that climb and I think he turned himself into a very productive, potential sixth interior guy. Maybe even you're starting to left guard next year. We'll find out that's down the road up front for Buffalo. They don't run a lot of games. It's mostly straight rush and with Jackson playing like he has this year, with Toron Armstead being Toron Armstead, with

how I think the interior three has communicated. I like Miami's ability to keep to upright by utilizing the outside run and passing game, the quick game, and the play action passing game. And don't forget that most Dirt's return and what he does in pass Pro would be a massive boon for this offense. I also think about the options for personnel deployment, like I like Miami's fast twenty one grouping. I like their twenty one normal grouping as well.

That's two backs, one tight ends, and the fast twenty one means eight chan regular twenty one means Ingold or I should say two tailbacks, not a full back. But with the defense that plays undersized by design, that's a structure that invites alec Ingold pro bowler alec Ingold to make life hell on those undersized players in that second level. Hell well, I think go thirty one personnel. Why not

if waddles out, we'll find out about that. Just let Tyreek play the other one wide receiver spot with three backs, one tight end and one receiver. Just do that. Get Durham going and run most of an e chent out into the pattern into the short perimeter game, and then when you space them out, run it down their throats. I don't know. I'm just like, there's options there, man on the perimeter. Let's go ahead and talk about these guys outside, because I'm just this game confuses the crap

out of me. Man. It's like they tell you not to like bet with your heart or your heart, right, but it's like my heart and my mind are so mixed up, the wires are so confused right now. I'm basically the episode of Rick and Morty when Morty and Summer get there, they're basically DNA entangled and they get themselves into a quato situation. Open your mind. If you get that, I'm glad you're here with me. If you don't, it's you're like, what the hell is this podcast? To

the perimeter. Finally, for the Buffalo Bills, the rushers will inside is actually where it starts because at Oliver leads them with sixty one pressures. He and Christian Wilkins have become what they were supposed to be that year in the draft, class elite inter year defensive lineman who can also play outside, but on the actual edge. We talked about the difference in nature of the play style of

Rousseau and Floyd versus Epanessa and Lawson. Was impacted by their or I should say it's reflective of their pressure numbers, because Russeau has fifty one pressures, Floyd has thirty nine, Epanessa has twenty nine, and Lawson has twenty one. So it's there's power players, there's lean players, big, strong, long, athletic get off all that stuff. And we've seen the last three games here have similar makeup in terms of

the edge rushers and what that might look like. So again I thought we had a good screen game against Baltimore and Dallas. That's always a great way to kind of remove those guys from the equation that in your crack back, your outside end around action, there's always a great way to take advantage of one gap upfield hair on pass rushers in fronts, and that's with your quick game, screen game, and outside running game. Then outside on the

actual perimeter. Rasul Douglas has helped turn that defense around with his playmaking and proclivity for stiffing out concepts ahead of their proper timing, with smart play ball skills and just overall instinctive nature and the length to get in those passing lanes. And that's I mean, that's how you stop this offense. So he's a good matchup for them in that regard. Then it's second year pro Christian Benfer on the other side. I really hope we have a

somewhat healthy Waddle because that's a mismatch. He was a sixth round pick who beat out their first round pick kyr Elam a couple of years ago. He's playing good ball, but I mean he's Waddle, you know, like Shalen freaking Wattle or Tyreek Hill. It's a well coached defense, They're gonna be on their rules. They're extremely healthy. Outside of Matt Mlano and Douglas, I would say is playing even better than Trey White was. So it's a good group, man,

Gonna have to be earned. And just to recap this whole segment once more, running backs, quick game, horizontal spacing. Those are my keys on offense. And get to those looks from similar personnel packages that allow you to be able to at the drop of a hat, you know, run a power gap scheme on one run or go vertical shot to the running back up the perimeter one run or one play. I should say we can outmatch up these guys. Maybe even some tempo that's possibly in

there as well. It's tough with the way this offense is the vernacular of this offense, but might be an option as well. Let's go ahead and take our last break right there. Come back on the other side, do Bill's offense and that quarterback with a stupid face. It's the Dolphins defense that's next to Draft Time podcast. Your host Travis Wingfield, I don't like him. Brought to you by Hotto Nation. So this Bill's offense, let's talk about it here. On the third segment of the Wednesday edition

of the Draft Time podcast. Josh Allen's the guy that leads the way, right. He plays every snap. I think they've gone to Barkley a few times for garbage time or whatever, but not Barkley Kyle Allen. Sorry, I forget their backup quarterback because Allen plays every damn play. Stefan digs eighty one percent of the snaps. Gabe Davis eighty seven. Is that accurate? Yeah, that's acurate. Trent Sherfield thirty one. Their primary slot guy is Khalil Shakur at fifty percent.

I like his game a lot. Dawson knocks his back. He's played forty one percent of the snaps after going on IR earlier. Dalton king Kate is the rookie tight end in the first round. He plays sixty percent of the snaps. And then I put Deontay Hardy on my list too because he's played thirteen percent of the snaps and it's all inside. But they really, almost as well as anybody else in the NFL, do a good job of changing that and basically mixing up their groupings to

where receivers are all over the formation. So man, it makes so much sense to me to have Ramsey traveled this week, but that's above my pay grade. But they have a group here that it's like one guy pops up here and there, and Stefan Diggs is it's kind of a feast or famine for him. This season. It's usually pretty good, but some games have been not so good. But it's not a skill group where you're like, that's one of the best in the league. It's just not.

And then on the offensive line, Mitch Morse is the center, Connor McGovern's the right guard, Osiris Torreans is the left guard, Dion Dawkins is the left tackle, and Spencer Brown's the right tackle. And that group of offensive linemen have played over one thousand snaps to a man across the board. They have not lost anybody to injury. How the hell Family Friendly Podcast, Travis, How the fell does that happen? Like, do you know that toront Armstead has the second most

snaps on our offensive line this year? Cool? Fun? Cool? I mean like that's not not it's just he's played nine games, you know, God, golly, running backs, you can tell how how off I am on this podcast right, Like I'm so conflicted in my own feelings and my own thoughts and everything I think that I know. I think I picked the team thirteen and four this year. I like to come within two games of that, and we've achieved that goal. Twelve and five would be prettyweet.

Maybe I was twelve and five. Actually, that'd be pretty nice to land around the number. But I've been on this on the same drum be all year long, right, Like, I think that we're gonna keep We're gonna go way off script here. I had a conversation with one of the media members of the day, like a guy that I really respect. But I'm not gonna put the name on the podcast because I don't I just don't want to tell you about a private conversation, uh, specifically about

who it was. But we were talking about, like, why can't the majority of football fans, at least the ones on Twitter that we interact with on a daily basis, why are they so unable to like separate emotion and logic. And I was like, reporter, how do they get through their day? Like how do they deal with any adversity? Because what I see on social is tantrums from children quite frankly, and I get it, Like I'm emotional about

this team too. I've been in a bad mood all week and I'm starting to come out of it now, as you can tell a little bit. But you know, I think that I have done my best to stay directly with what I've learned about this team in this game and this league and how it works, and the knowledge that I, you know, I pour through tape every single week. I'm fortunate to be able to have this be my job to where I can put the time

in to learn about this thing that I love. And I've been consistent all year long because to me, I've seen the process and I know it's good. I know it's a good football team. I know the good football teams typically bury the bad ones and compete with the good ones, and we've done that all year long until the Ravens game, really in the Buffalo game first time round. But there's context all that. But like, I'm just so off my game right now in terms of how I

feel from a confidence standpoint. Maybe that's a good thing, because sometimes I when I start to doubt this team and this quarterback or whatever, like internally in my mind, that's when they play their best football. So we'll see. But anyway, let's get back to it. Bill's offense eleven personnel sixty one percent of the time, twelve personnel's twenty percent, and they have that same twenty one percent or twenty one personnel grouping seven percent of the time. They have

a fullback who plays nine percent of their snap. So a few thoughts to start with here. They have bits and pieces of five other grouping. So it's a pretty vast offense in terms of how deep into the playb they can get, but most of those came from the Ken Dorsey offense. They do have multiple tight ends they use. They have the fullback, they have a mix of receivers that kind of see like role specific type of operation opposed to the one to two to three pecking order

you usually get for most teams. I get the feeling they're going to operate a lot out of twelve personnel and get their run game going and then try to go after the middlefield, linebackers, middlefield players, defenders and linebackers with those tight ends. But what's our approach on Stefon Diggs, Because that's where it starts. He has one hundred and fifty one targets and the next most is eighty two on the team. That's Dalton king Kaid, their rookie tight end.

Next is Gabe Davis at seventy six. We know this defense isn't one that typically assigns a shadow or traveler, right, and look at the way they adjusted versus Dallas to shut that team down for two quarters with Cede Lamb not seeing the football for two and a half quarters. Now X most likely not going to be available. Will Ramsey travel with Digs? We saw it happen against the Jets without X, and we did not see it with

Digs last time when Ramsey was out. But I think Ramsey's by far are the best defensive back this team has, so it makes it different. But with X and Cator, now it'll be Ramsey and Cater so it's conceivable to think it's on the table. But we're gonna have to

wait till Sunday to find out, won't we. But I mentioned the difference in the offenses here, like, okay, so Joe Brady, you know, he's the new OC there and he incorporated this RPO middlefield concepts that it's just not really Josh Allen's game man, Like he's more of a Deshaun Watson in terms of get a deep drop survey, get through your progressions, and if you can't make something happen there, then use the legs and we have the

big arm to big play hunt. But he's creating off of these plays where it's just like in structure is not really happening. So for Miami, it's about finding a way to prevent what happens after the instructure stuff because they're kind of taking out off the table for themselves

most of the time. And you know, Allen's the best in the world at creating and I say that acknowledge in the previous quarterback we played, but I think Josh Allen's different in the way he does it because of the physical nature he presents and that when you get him, he's like never down and he can run through tackles. It's crazy. Like I acknowledge that he's a top five quarterback in the league, no doubt about that, but I want to be clear that he's not impervious to mistakes.

In fact, he's far from it. He's this top five quarterback, but he's not consistent like most of those guys are not an on the beaten path performer. It's much more of a roller coaster ride, but with these sustained highs for long periods of time, and those highs are really

higher than any other quarterback in the NFL. When he's rolling and he's beating you with his feet, and he's extending plays and getting the ball to digs on broken plays and shaking off two hundred and fifty pound pass rushers in the pocket with free runs, I would take that over anybody else in the NFL when he's rolling. But when he hits the valleys, it's these miss layups, it's turnover worthy throws, it's bone headed decisions. This is why we need to not play a game where it's

twenty eight points in their first four drives. You have to put him in the spot that tools in against the Ravens and make him force him into those mistakes. He puts his body unnecessarily risk me. He does this. The challenge is how do you generate the ladder and prevent the former, Because every damn time this guy plays against us, he accesses every bit of doubt that everybody has ever had in him and uncorks these berserker performances. Now, the last time we had communication issues, we did not

have all of our parts. Ramsey and Deshaun were down, and that's critical two parts of the defensive backfield. We had a safety who on hard Knocks last night admitted that he was lost at first. Yeah, we knew that,

but damn it. Vic is the highest paid DC in the sport, and he's facing an offensive coordinator who made his money off of utilizing one of the greatest pre snap processors to ever play the game, and incorporating RPO and gun concepts that are supposed to be for these cerebral quarterbacks and letting Joe Burrow read that thing out back at LSU and now it's Josh Allen and he

ate that quarterback and it shows. So you're gonna get those misses, you're gonna get some wasted downs, and if you can slow James Cook down, they'll be in these third and longs all game long. And that's when hero ball Josh can take over. And we've and that's where those feasts and famine ideas come from. He does either takes his game to another level or he becomes a

bad quarterback, literally a bad quarterback. But we've seen him do that in multiple games down here, right and We've seen him also put the ball in harm's way multiple drop picks. I remember having three takeaway chances in that twenty twenty game in the fourth quarter alone, and not a single one of them got made. Kyle Van Noyd drops a pick, Xavion Howard has a deep shop room service pick that he drops, and they throw a go ahead touchdown on the next play and we lose the game.

Or in twenty twenty two, the game we did win, how many damn chances we have in that one? JP bats a pass up in the air and just couldn't quite grab it. Javon Holland has a run on a ball to the perimeter and can't make that catch. But then you had that fourth down miss too, Like you force him into these bad decisions by beating him up. I'm talking myself through this because what I see on tape is a disjointed offense. But I know, I know damn well that this guy just finds a way against us.

I don't know. It's like here, I I have all this evidence in front of me, but I refuse to listen to it. It's is it that jaded Dolphins fan in me? I've scolded our fans for that mentality on this show. I've come after you for it, you know, like you know what. My family has been gone for a week now. They went back home last Thursday, So now I'm left alone with my thoughts all week. And rather than chasing a toddler around untill nine o'clock at night,

I think, and you know, women, he's probably out cheating reality. No, he's asking how the Dolphins can generate four takeaways against

Josh Allen and sees two of them. The biggest thing with this Bill's offense, well, the two things James Cook in his incorporation and who is the second option in the passing game to Stefan dig Let's go ahead and start with Cook because I think that his running and Allen's running two is really the second option on that offense behind Diggs, who has what was it seventy more targets than anybody else in the offense. He's averaging two

point eight yards after contact. So it's not like he's a great tackle breaker, it's only sixteenth in the National Football League. But it's the speed, the vision, the shiftiness, and the ability to get to good run looks for him to utilize all of that they are a man gap scheme that mixes in some zone. So our ability to hold the point and disengage and play a physical

big boy ball is the key here. And that's why I like having Wilkins and Seiler who can play both you know, five techs, three techs and shade inside of the one technique as well. In fact, as much as it stinks to not have two or fifteen anymore in this game, I think having ninety two and ninety four, if I had to pick, is the more important one because they need to keep David Long free. They need to keep Duke Riley or Jerome Baker free and really

cut off those interior escape lanes. For Josh Allen, this is a quarterback who can erase perimeter pressure, is what I'm saying. But we need we need Wilkins and Sealer and even Rake one to get it done in the running game because they are a volume passing offense that will have some misses. You add that with a slowed down running game. You get him into third Long and you can beat them. Diggs. What do you do with Diggs? The best pure route runner and football aside from Justin Jefferson.

For my money, I think Tyreek and Waddle probably the next couple of guys in that list. No Ramsey last time, but I wonder if he travels without actually talked about all already, because look at Diggs, like if you take him out of the offense versus the Patriots and Broncos four point eight yards per target and six point eight yards per target two games they lost against really bad football teams. Broncos are bad. I don't care what the record is. Though. He did just have two point two

yards per target and it went over KC. But that was a defensive win. That Bill's offense looked like crap all game long, three point four over the Jets in that win. So really, maybe this is an in episode learning technique here. Maybe the key is more James Cook, because they've already show you they lean on the running game now. But ultimately I don't want Digs to beat me because his highest yards per target in a game this year was by five yards more than the next

closest game was Week four, seventeen point one. That cannot happen obviously, and their next three most lop set of victories Cowboys, Raiders, and Commanders. Those were his third, fourth and fifth highest yards per target game. So yeah, slow down digs, slow down their offense, slow the running game, slow their offense. And this is an offense that du us put the ball in harm's way. So you've got to capitalize on those turnovers and teams avoid Jalen rams.

You like the plague. So will Josh Allen do that? I don't think he will. He's gonna challenge your best player. So maybe Miami's Pro Bowl cornerback will actually get his first I and t ops since the Raider game. Allen sixteen picks a three percent I in T rate, six fumbles and James Cook has four fumbles. In fact, they have nineteen fumbles as a team, So heavy focus on digs,

slow Cook, capitalize takeaway opportunities. One way you can get all of that done is winning inside tougher ask being down fifteen to two but forty three is pretty damn good. If there's one thing that has won against the Bills right tackle Spencer Brown, it's speed, and Van Ginkel has lots of this. Maybe we see a speed rush that forces Allen into a collapsing pocket, but that's a tall order because the Bills have the best offensive line health

in the NFL. In fact, here's their opening day starters Pbees because they have played every damn snap. Dawkins ninety seven point three, Torrents seven flat, Morse ninety seven to seven, McGovern ninety eight one, and Spencer Brown ninety six to seven.

Pretty good across the board. Brown's the only one below the proverbial Mason Dixon line or whatever, and just looking at his game by game stats, one pressure allowed in the last meeting, and we didn't have JP in that game either, But I think a lot of that is Josh Allen moving and creating. The Eagles and Jets were teams they got five pressures on him, but those are completely different defenses than we play. But Reddick and Huff are also fast get with good get off, like Van Ginkle.

The key is the same as it was last week, but in a different way. You have to rush as one and there's no possible way to coordinate this, but man, you just hope that you're snaps where Ginkel wins the edge also coincide with the wins that Christian and z that get inside. Speaking of Christian, last point before the keys here and we get the he gu out of here. And this is true in the game itself and the potential rematch scenario for this game. Hit Josh Allen. Hit

the hell out of him. He opens himself up to hits and he's got a sore neck. Hit him, take those hits, and Christian annoy the crap him. Do what you do best, get him, get him out of his game, get him in his head. He's a head case. Lean into that and hit him and hit him again. All right, that's probably good. I know this team well, we've been here before. I want this one so so bad, so bad. You don't want this, dew We think of what that

Bill's win. Key number one. Utilize offensive flexibility playing against a nearly exclusive defensive personnel grouping, exploit the matchups and utilize the fact that you have a dual purpose tight end and running backs to mix those looks and put your playmakers in the best positions to go out and make plays. Key number two create turnovers. Buffalo is two and five in games with multiple giveaways. In the games where they only have one giveaway, they are eight and one.

Create turnovers and you'll have a chance to win this game. Keenumber three takes to Von Diggs out of the game, not physically, but just remove them from the game. The target share dictates and the results that if Digs is in effective, the Buffalo offense will be as well, So

take him out of the game. Areas of concern Alan scrambling digs if not approached properly, spamming the middle of the field on defense, and us not adjusting areas to exploit the perimeter in general, the run game in general, and more teams speed on offense than they have on defense. Exploit that my prediction. I'm so confused. Guys. We're the better team, We're banged up, and Alan goes god mode in these games regardless of how much he stinks Versus

the Chargers of the Patriots last two weeks. If Alan accesses god mode, we'll get smoked. But I don't think that happens. But still, despite that fact, and despite the chances to turn him over, I'm just gonna go with what my head's telling me right now, and it's telling me we have one more gut punch to endure. Like I said, the tape tells me it's a good spot. So maybe I'm going with my heart here, but I'm gonna say twenty seven to twenty three bills and be

very sad. That's the end of the podcast. You all please be sure to rate, review the podcast, subscribe all that fun stuff. Follow me on social at linkld NFL. The team at Miami Dolphins check out the fish Tank podcast with Seth and oj. Check out the YouTube channel for media availabilities, Dolphins a Day and so much more, and last but not least, Miami Dolphins dot com. Until next time finds up Caroline Cameron, Daddy's coming home tomorrow. I'll see you tomorrow. Mm hm