Drive Time: Closing Up the Bye Week

The stretch Run from the Baptist Hill Studios inside the Baptist Hill Training Complex. This is the Draft Time Podcast. I think the big news of the day comes from head coach Mike McDaniel's press conference when he did say that we will see the return of Tuatunguavailoa at some point this year.

feels like maybe season back on at that point, right. Otherwise, if it's two and four, he doesn't come back to the Cardinal game, you get the Bills on tap. Like these next couple of games are gonna kind of tell us. I think how the final part of the season goes, and that will be what today's show is about is kind of about how more now, more now so than ever. Like the early part of the year is all about like what it does to your win lost total. It's

not very informal about what teams are. I think we're starting to get that clarity. I think that clarity will crystallize as we go forward. But then you also get injuries because every year, I you know, I do the NFL schedule predictor and even when you try to do them in week thirteen or we like they're always off, So this game is impossible to predict.

have the conversation on Wednesday with my daughter. We ripped that band aid off and the little face she makes where the corners of her mouth go down to the jawline and just kind of that poudy face, Like you know how kids kind of react to your emotions more so than the information you give them. Like she knew we were being somber and was just sad about the

fact that we were being somber. I don't think it really hit her that we were not going to the Princess Castle, as she calls it, because she was happy the rest of the like the next twenty four hours. But then and after I made a tea time on Friday morning with actually Adam Beasley and.

but they'll be open Friday. And best the best part about that is you're probably gonna have a less than crowded park because people aren't gonna get out there for Friday. And so we were looking at that. We're looking to possible drive up. The hotels were not booking rooms for the most part on Thursday, but eventually, after my wife spent lots of time on the phone and looking at

through different websites, we got a hotel. We stayed at the spring Hill Suites on Palm Parkway there right by the park, and like beautiful hotel.

Up my Man? He made the recently made the move from the Seattle area back down to his home turf down in the central Florida area, had dinner with him on Thursday, and then got to the park on Friday. And let me tell you, when you feel that cool breeze that you feel from the Pacific Northwest on a October morning in Central Florida, it.

their beers. Do you think there's a pirates lives in that room back there? I see a door marked Private Charlie. That's what reminded me of. Those beers were delicious. I had one at the UK Place, one at the Mexican Place like a Mexican like a Mexican logger was delicious, and then I got one later on too after And let me tell you, Travis doesn't do a lot of drinking anymore, So three beers fill pretty good walking around Epcot and what a cool spot to just kind of

walk in people watch. So that was a great day Saturday to Magic Kingdom. Woof, dude, freaking woof. First of all, going with a kid that kids that can't do any of the fun rides, that's the whole payoff of going to Disneyland, right besides seeing your kids just light up the whole time. But we were in long lines, it was hot as hell. We couldn't get a spot for the parade because Cameron just refuses to be like contained

within a small space. Caroline can handle her stuff, Cameron cannot, and so we couldn't reserve a spot on the curb and I had to throw Caroline up on my shoulders in like real field ninety eight degrees and stand there for twenty minutes with her on my shoulders. It was it was a struggle. And this was after a fifty minute wait going into the Haunted Mansion, which probably a mistake to take a four year old to the Haunted Mansion, but it's like my childhood, like nostalgia kicking in. Had

to get to that ride. And my two year old son had a one of those bubble machines because that's all they saw throughout the course of the park, and they got it on Saturday morning and he was playing with that thing and we had to take it out of his hands in the line because you can just going to the ride with bubbles, and for thirty minutes he proceeded to just lose his mind. But then also, hey, adults that go to Disney World that get mad about kids crying? You doing with your life? What are you

doing with your life? We had a woman tell Cameron.

And she kept saying getting pictures with the princesses. We have pictures with Ann and Elsa, a picture with Ariel, picture with Cinderella, a picture with Mawana.

our kit ready for the week. Got a chance to just watch Sunday Ticket while my drive wife drove us home, which that never happened, so that was great to see. And we finished the weekend with Caroline throwing up all over herself right around Palm Beach in the car seat on the way home. So a very eventful weekend. We got to go to Disney World and it was just a weekend worth of memories made and I'm so thrilled

about it. Got a chance to I pulled my phone up and went through all the photos put on the TV for a slide show on Sunday night, and they watched that and it was just really special. Man, So highly recommend it probably wait until your kids are like in the your youngest at at four years old. Because Caroline was good, Cameron not so much at the park. So that was the weekend at Disney World. But uh man, speaking of Sunday, some bad football.

type of game. Like I feel like so many games now and I say this on the heels of a Bucks in Saints game that was what was it, thirty one to twenty seven a half time, But I feel like so many games are like seven to nothing with five minutes to go in the second quarter, or seven three up against a two minute warning, or six to three. The Ravens and Commanders game was like three to three late in the second quarter, and if the Giants could do anything against the Bengals at all, Cincinnati is one

and five right now. That's why I'm kind of leaning into this idea that even going back to like the last couple wins before this one. I kind of think that the the Derek Henry and Lamar Jackson pairing in the backfield for the Ravens is gonna put them into the super Bowl this year. I think that's gonna finally get him over the hump to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs. We shall see, but I think the Ravens have really really carved out their position as the best

team in the NFL right now. That's how I view that, even at four and two, even over the Vikings and Chiefs, who are both unbeaten. I think the rookies have given you this really fun inflection of new quarterback blood in the league, and I think NeXT's going to be the exact same thing. But you know, Jaden Daniels, I told you guys when I saw him here, like this guy.

We know about the physical traits, and I was apprehensive about his game because of you know, I saw it at Arizona State and he was terrible in Arizona State. But he matured, he developed, he became a technician, an actual quarterback to pair with that athletic ability. Nothing bothers him. He's so calm and I'm just so impressed by his game. He's already a top ten quarterback for me. I think Caleb Williams can get there. I think we saw more on structure the last couple of weeks in addition to

all the playmaking that he does. But getting two really dynamic rookies into the game or into the league is nice.

Oh man, they have a long way to go. So by the time they get things built around him as he in year like three, four five, maybe you know that.

is who I'm talking about. I think my biggest change, and you know I always try to alter my perception of the league or take in new information and use that for my perception going forward in this league over the last five years, maybe even just the last two, is this realization that those teams are not a whole lot different than the six and eleven teams. And like I remember, I used to be like, oh, Dolphins went nine and seven, what do you mean they're not a

good team? Went to the playoffs? Like, Nah, that wasn't a good team. And I say that earnestly, and I think if you can, you can see a ton of these teams around the league.

go along. And speaking of that, we are currently thirteen and oh on the week, six picks. I have never had a perfect week before, so go Bills. I guess to get to fourteen and oh on the week, I don't know because it's one of those games where I can't really root for either team. Normally, I am so happy to just root for whatever's best for the Dolphins. That's that's all I care about. I don't that's my

main reason for watching football. But I don't know what is better for the Dolphins because are we fighting for the division or for a wild card spot? I tend to think it's gonna be more wildcard spot even if we get above a threshold that we haven't shown this entire year. So that's like down the road. All that said, I feel like the bottom of the barrel in the

NFL is smaller than it's ever been. But the impact of that is there's all these teams in this middle portion that just are not good football teams, but they're good enough to not be like tear it down operations. To me, there are three of those right now. They are the Jaguars, the Raiders, and the Patriots. And that was actually in the wrong order. Patriots, Raiders, Jaguars. Where where I put those teams? Or no, sorry, the Panthers

are also in that category. Start over, Patriots, Raiders, Panthers, Jags. I think everyone else can give you what the Giants did against the Bengals on Sunday night or like that Chargers Broncos game. I think both of these teams in our next category, or both these teams in our next category. With the teams you know, I suppose you know the Saints without car that kind of fit tracks too. Maybe even with him can hang around and keep a game close. But did I ever feel like the Bucks would lose

that game against the Saints. No. So the next grouping to me is I put the Giants off the top in here. I just I mean Dangel Jones struggles so much. I got the Browns next. They are just their offense can't do anything they got. They got to move off to Shohn Watson. It's about time. Titans, Saints, Broncos. I just cannot watch those offenses operate and be like this is I just you can't trust them. It's gonna be a thirteen sixteen, drag them out game. Dolphins are next.

This could obviously change like massively, it's going to change big time. But until they get to a back and that all happens, then I'm gonna keep them in this position. Cardinals, Rams, and the Rams are more of an injury plague situation right now. Colts, Bengals, Cowboys, Jets, Steelers, Chargers. Like you look at the Giants and the botb netlist in the Charge at the top of that list. In fact, the Seahawks are in there as well. The Giants just beat

the Seahawks perfect example of that. Like, some of these teams are better than other teams, but like, what does.

four point favorites going in. I'm talking about the Falcons, Eagles, Bears, Bucks, Commanders, and Packers, and even all of those teams have like fatal flaws that I don't believe in. So to me, there are seven teams that stand out from the rest, those teams that will never lose a game to those first two categories. It's just not gonna happen, even though

we already have had that happen. But from here forward and will probably beat the team in the previous tear pretty tier, pretty comfortably, and then compete with each other. These are the teams that have Super Bowl aspirations. In my opinion as of today, the forty nine ers are still in there even though they're three and three. They're gonna get back, They're gonna get healthy, They're gonna be fine. The Buffalo Bills, I know they have their own issues.

They've lost too in a row. They've got some defensive concerns. Their quarterback gets hurt and doesn't ever miss games, but he gets hurt like every game. The Vikings, despite being five and zero, I have him in this position right here. I just think it's going to not go that way the entire year, but I think they'll make the playoffs. The Texans to me are right in there as well. I think that the defense, that quarterback, that could just

all really good stuff. The Lions to me look like the class of the NFC, which is Wow, what a world return.

football here a little bit. This podcast might come out today morning, it might come out Monday night, so forgive me. I wanted to get ahead of it and just record the podcast for you guys, But it might come out Tuesday.

both of those teams. But is that better than Bills four and two, Dolphins two and three, Jets two and four, Because again, I do think if we are going to get this thing back on the tracks, the wild card positioning might be our best bet.

of schedule. So, like I've been saying, like long season, a second straight win I think could really undo a lot of the let's just call it what it is, the football fandom pain that you've endured these first five weeks before we look at that. Let's go ahead and go back here and just talk about what's working so far for the Dolphins. So the defense, right, that's the tweet.

The defense, to me, has been awesome. And I don't think the most important content, or when you look at a lot of defensive rankings, you know, is the opposing the context I should say, is the opposing offenses they face, because I do believe that can often skew defensive stats, like for instance, some of the discourse around the Jets and Robert Sala, you know, talking about how many points

they gave up in defensive stats. They've also accumulated the majority of those stats against the Titans, Patriots and Broncos, three offenses that are horrible, right, they're horrible offenses. But I think the elements of this defense that we have sort of forecasted as possible strengths this offseason has come true. Their ability to mix pressures and sims to confuse opposing

quarterbacks has really worked. And while the sacks haven't been there, or maybe even the pressure rate, you know, ranking tied for twenty fifth and the nineteenth in those two categories. This is another reason that individual stats, free of context can be misleading because what the pressure and sim pressure look does is forces the quarterback to decide who's coming versus who's dropping and identify the many fronts, coverage structures and what might become open. And that plan has confused

plenty of quarterbacks that we've seen. Twenty five and a half percent third down conversion rate is top in the NFL. We've also only allowed twelve drives to go into the red zone. Only four teams have less than that, and three of those teams didn't play a game last week, so twenty percent fewer than us on average. Now we are sixteenth in points allowed, and there's that's the one portion of the defense that can do better, or rather, what is that one portion, and it's the explosive runs.

I think the rumors of the run games demise are greatly exaggerated. I mentioned this on the pod with the Patriots game. They had the thirty three yard touchdown run, but it felt like most of the run plays were wins for the Miami defense and rundowns, and that's been the case all year long. I think success rate is a far more important stat and the Dolphins ranked six than that category, as in only five teams have better down to down win rates against the run than Miami does.

We also had James Cook take that forty nine yard touchdown run against the Buffalo Bills. I think you've seen the same thing on those two touchdown runs, as well as some of the big runs we saw from Bigsby or Pawllards in those other games. I think we lost the edge, had a bad second level trigger and fit, and then over ran gaps and had two many guys in one gap and not enough guys in another gap. A perfect storm of a handful of players out of

the larger equation. And I think those will get buttoned up with time and the and you know, just make this defense click on all cylinders. I think the coverage is fantastic on the back end, spearheaded by both Ramsey and Fuller, who have been great. I think the more games we get from JB and d Long together in the system at linebacker and led by Seeler and Campbell up front, I think it's very possible it keeps getting better. I am curious to see, you know, if we get

some help back off the edge. I don't think, you know, we expected it to look like it does, right now with obviously Shaq and JP and Beach Hubs still down and Chub's not gonna be back this week, but maybe in the nearer future hopefully for him as well as some other guys possibly coming off IR but we'll get more information on that. Hopefully Cam good as well, Hopefully

Mo Kamara is getting back. But the depth up front is my concern because when when you have Seeler or Campbell off the field, that's when the run defense does get bad, and that's where a lot of those explosives have come from. But on a down in and down out, Dolphins defense against the run has been very good. Something else I think is working, or at least has started working, is the run game. I was so impressed by the style we saw from both Jalen Wright and Raheem Moster

up in New England. I thought it was much needed. Earlier in the year, I thought we left some proverbial meat on the bone with the lanes that we were afforded versus the production we were getting on running backs, and I think Right and most are really kind of exemplified that. I think it made a huge difference in that game. I think the offensive line is playing more connected every single week. I think they're opening up massive lanes inside, you know, run for two hundred yards without that.

I think Brewer was a big time free agent hit. I think Liam's having his best year, albeit some ups and downs at right guard. I think Austin's one of the best blocking right tackles, run blocking right tackles who's good enough in pass pro. And I feel like Toron is off to his best start as a Dolphin, especially that Patriots game. So I'm excited to see what they can do with that where it has to get better. Not something to really harp on here, but obviously you're

playing your fourth quarterback of the year. By game four, it's the passing game, twenty two second yards passing. We haven't seen reekan Walla go off outside of that first game. What if I told you Tua is still a team's leading passer despite playing just seven of the season's twenty quarters. That's crazy that his potential return and the acclamation of OBJ. Hopefully River Craycraft comes back soon. I think we just

saw John who Smith's best game was a Dolphin. I think Jalen Wright's emergence could free up Devon to go back to more of his you know, scatback role. I think there's an answer there, I really do. So that's what we've been. Where do I think we're going. Let's go ahead and preview the rest of the schedule here on the rest of the Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by AutoNation. Twelve games to go. The bye week is gone. We have a short week,

which means we have a mini by after Thanksgiving. But you get back to your one o'clock kickoffs here for a few weeks, and that's pretty nice. Five of the next six games are gonna be one o'clock kickoffs. That includes a Monday nighter against the Rams out in Los Angeles, and then I had a bunch of one clock kickofs after that as well, so that's better. I hate late games as in this job. Let's go ahead and talk about these teams. We see the rest of the way

and get the hell out of here for today. The Colts are up next, and we'll talk about them a lot this week, but they've had their own injury issues at quarterback, and quite frankly, Flacco has played better than Anthony Richardson, even though it was bad on Sunday. I think Richardson could be back for the game this weekend, and if he's healthy, he's gonna be the guy. So we'll talk to my guests in the show this week in my own preview about what we think is better

for the Dolphins for who to play. And they've also been without Jonathan Taylor, who I think is the bigger difference there with the position or the backfield. If he plays on Sunday, I bet you he will, it makes a big boost for them. But they've really struggled on defense man, especially with DeForest Buckner being down. They really can't stop the run and they have coverage of breakdowns

in our secondary all the time. Also, Ryan Kelly went down on Sunday, So if Kelly is down for the game this Sunday and it is Anthony Richardson back in his place, I like our chances to create pressure because I don't think he can make the production calls the same way either Flacco or Kelly did when they are both in the lineup. The Cardinals are after that, and man, if you can find a way to match Murray's athletic ability in the running game, the rest of their offense

kind of shuts down. They've also struggled against the run and with their own run game. I think it will be Tua. I think it's a chance to get the running game going with Tua and maybe get some of our efficient passing game back. They've just had struggles protecting Kyler. Really everything that's not Kyler. They struggle that. But he's adept at creating. So the Dolphins're gonna get a good test here these next three games of very athletic quarterbacks

who can beat you with their legs. And that takes us into Week number nine against the Buffalo Bills. They've fallen into their own funk here as of late, needing a win against the Jets in the worst way, and I think they're gonna get it. We'll see when this podcast comes out if I'm right or wrong. Allen's taking an absolute pounding. They've struggled on the perimeter, but man, their run game has gone another direction this year. I

think they can lean on that. They'll also have some key parts back for this one, like Terrell Bernard and Taron Johnson, and Oliver misses a game on Monday, but he should be back for this one against US, and we have to beat them first before where I can predict us to do it. So it would be a nice time to have that happen, wouldn't it. Then it's at the Rams. You know, you wonder if that's one stays in the primetime slot. But they have just struggled

without Puka and Cooper. They're probably gonna both be back. I mean, imagine us without Reak and Waddle. It would be really tough even with two in the lineup. Or imagine that without Stafford. I mean, that's what these teams have dealt with, right. They've also had crazy attrition across the offensive line. But this is a one to four team that many thought had championship aspirations in them. Not so much now. Then the schedule really softens up from there.

I mean, I guess the really the for of the next five games are very winnable. If it's too I think our chances are good. Just beat Indie Man, just beat Indy the Raiders. I think this is going in the wrong direction. I think they're gonna get cam Ward next year. Quarterback change. Wilkins was added to the ir DeVante Adams probably not going to be there much longer.

Just a rough start to them. You have to beat this team at home, just as you have to beat the Patriots, who I think are also in that running for the top pick in the draft. Same story there. It's going to be Drake Maye at this point unless he gets hurt. Hurt, but man, they really struggle on offense a personnel and design standpoint to the first five six games here. A lot of those key defensive injuries don't figure to be any different by then. Juwan Bentley

went down, he's out for the year. Jabrill Peppers has his own legal battles he's dealing with. Christian Barmore probably not gonna be back either. They just are really really rough across the board. At the Packers, I think they're getting it turned around as we speak. The game on Sunday was a good example of that. Their offense looked like the first half of last year's offense for the most part, like in spurts. They also had some spurts

of Jordan Love being his MVP pick self. I think he'll probably settle into that more as we go along here. I do think he's elite, but I wonder how long it takes him to get fully back into gear. Sunday was a start. I think that this is going to be the toughest game on the schedule remaining. Then the Jets coaching change a lot of the same struggles on offense they've had the last couple of years. I think there's not a lot of buy in there. I think

there's just mixed messages. The quarterback is a you know, sociopathic egomaniac that kind of runs the whole ship. There never a good thing to have that. So that's a fun game to watch it. If the Dolphins can take care of some business. Then at the Texans. As I mentioned, these next two games are against two of the teams I believe are in the elite category. Nico Collins probably comes back by this point. Tank Dell was right back and they're doing his stuff. C J. Stroud is an

absolute monster. That's gonna be a tough game on the road no matter what happens from us from our standpoint. From injuries and the like. The Niners, same as the above, they've had their issues without McCaffrey. IUK has been off to a slow start. Debo and Kittle have both been banged up. They'll be in the mix. They always are. This will be a tough game at home. Then at the Browns. They're just awful, some of the lowest passing epas, not just in the current NFL, but of this century.

And like Deshaun is like topping his previous low from last year. And we'll see what the weather looks like for this game. Might not be a conducive to a passing day, but I think we'll know we'll have the run game to win those types of games, especially against a defense like Theirs that has struggled in addition to an offense that cannot do anything. And then of course you finish up with the Jets talked about them in

the Week fourteen matchup. Part of me wants to forecast this being the Sunday night game for a playoff spot, but that's obviously a miles of If I have to redo predictions right now, I know I've been pretty doom and gloom. I do think Tua comes back for Arizona. I don't think we can win without him. That's just I'm not gonna pick it until it happens, if it's not against a team like the Patriots. So I think you followed the Colts to go too, and four. I

think you can get on a run there. From that point, I think you'll beat Arizona. I refuse to pick us against Buffaloes. That would be three and five heading into Monday night. I think you can win that game against the Rams, beat the Raiders and the Patriots and get to six and five, lose to the Packers, and go to six and six heading into the final stretch. Run kind of feels like a best case scenario right there,

doesn't it. I mean, seven and five if you beat the Colts would be great, but six and six right here, I think you can beat the Jets at home. I just don't think it's a good football team, and we have the running game to punish that defense off the edges. Then a couple of losses of the Texans and Niners will get you to seven and eight, and then I think you can win the final two against the Browns and the Jets and go nine to eight and squeak into the playoffs. There you go, enjoy the game tonight.

We'll have this show for you. I think Wednesday I'll have the cold to guest. Thursday the game preview. Friday, Kyle will join us. We'll do all kinds of stuff here on the show. In the meantime, you all please be sure to subscribe to the podcast, leave us a rating.