Dolphins Texans Week 12 Preview

pulse if number? What is up? Dolph fans and welcome back to the Drivetime Podcast, part of the Miami Dolphins podcast network, covering your team, your Miami Dolphins. How's it going everybody? I am your host, Travis Wingfield, because you all have a fun bye week, I sure as heck did, especially watching some of the game in our own division. On today's show though, we're back for an early preview

edition here of the Draft Time Podcast. Wanted to get the position by position, matchup by matchup, film study and stat analysis podcast your way ahead of the holiday. We're breaking down all things Dolphins Texans with the matchups, the three keys, and what's at stake from the Baptist Health studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is the drivetimes the Houston Texans. And I heard this stat after I wrote up my script. I'm gonna go ahead and

put it in here real quick. This is the Dolphins largest point spread since hosting the Texans in two thousand and three, the season opener that of course went the

wrong way, and that part is in the script. And we talk about life cycles on this podcast all the time, particularly in the team building portion of the calendar, with all the great draft guests we have on the show annually, and this Texans organization has had some of the most of fine cycles really of any team since there are two thousand two inception into the NFL, they struggled out

of the gate like any expansion franchise would. They finished last in the newly aligned a f C South in five of their first six seasons and never finished better than third until their eighth year in existence, which coincided with the arrival of quarterback Matt Shop, then a step back to third, and then the arrival of J. J.

Swat J J. Watt in two thousand and eleven. They put together back to back division tiles before bottoming out at two and fourteen, and they turned that around to nine and seven and fourteen, then officially shed the expansion tag with a dominant run inside their own division. They win the a f C South four out of five years, with a fourth place sandwiched directly in the middle of that seventeen season, and more recently, back to back four

win seasons the last two years. And coming into this game one eight and one, how fascinating is that it is? To me at least they've been playing football for twenty one years and they have finished first or fourth in fourteen of those years. Two of those third place finishes were four win seasons. So if not for the frigging Jacksonville Jaguars these last two years, we're looking at sixteen of their twenty one years either at the top of

the podium or in the cellar. And of course, as every single Dolphins fan knows, despite those ups and downs, they've always provided a challenge to the good guys. The afore mentioned OH three season opener was one of the biggest shockers of the century. It was Miami's first opening they had lost in twelve years, and the biggest favorite of that opening weekend, a game where Miami were fourteen point favorites. That was unheard of in two thousand two.

This game on Sunday, they're only I think eleven and a half. It's in the NFL even today. Fourteen points is a lot Back then, forget about it, and that torment against the Texans would continue for more than a decade. The two six loss was bad. The two since seven lost was expected in a nightmare season. But and I know I've referenced this a million times, no loss made me more upset as a Dolphins fan than that two

thousand eight game in Houston. Watched the quarterback drop, Matt Shop is gonna run it, coming off massive wins over New England and San Diego to rescue the O and to start with the Wildcat offense that year and get out to a big lead on the Texans, but then to lose it after Andre Johnson plux an impossible fourth and twenty reception off the helmet of was it Andre Goodman? I don't remember. I do remember what happened after that, though, Matt freaking Shop on the draw on fourth and goal.

Remember having Channing Crowder on the podcast when we first launched and talked about that play and he agreed with the frustration of it all. Luckily that team did bounce back and win the a f C East. I do not remember the two thousand nine game that well at all. I remember the two thousand eleven and two thousand thirteen

losses or two thousand twelve, I should say. And then we get to two thousand, fifteen oh and seven and all time, and the Demons were exercised with a forty two nothing first half, six touchdowns in the opening half, and the team split the last two with the serious sitting right now at two to eight. Back to the Texans, Now, how do they get here? Well, Bill O'Brien was let go mid season. They then hired David Coley as a sacrificial layman two thousand one, replaced him with Levey Smith

this year after they won. They exceeded expectations last year with four victories. They were supposed to win any games last year. They plucked the very talented Nick Cassario from New England last year and he has been as busy as any GM in the NFL. From a volume of move standpoint, they have made so many veteran acquisitions on that team. They did relieve Jack Easterby earlier this year, one of the weirder hirings ever after, you know, a firing that was greeted by a social media post from

players advocating for his dismissal. But that's kind of been the last three years for the Texans, who made a big move to deal their franchise quarterback after years of nefarious behavior was concealed there as well. Those winning years

under O'Brien came at a cost. They dealt premium pick after premium pick in pursuit of maximizing the life cycle under the then star quarterback, who of course was on a rookie contract, and it never materialized beyond a trip to the a f C Divisional round and that devastating loss to the Chiefs after a twenty four nothing lead to open the game. How do you bounce back from that? As a fan? I would love to know, haven't experienced it myself. Then season happened, and that's kind of the

genesis of the bottom dropping out on this team. Without the first and second round picks, they finished third to last in the NFL. And you can't replying to your roster with mean, I don't know, Galen Waddle Javon holland Galen Phillips without those picks, uh, without the high picks, I should say, and then sign more than twenty free agents two deals in that one the two year range. Truly a unique offseason and it wasn't the same this year,

but it wasn't that different. They're playing with a different quarterback on a rookie court, a rookie contract now is Davis Mills is playing his butt off trying to secure the long term job security. There hasn't gone that way so far. They have a stud rookie running back and Damian Pierce plopped into a running back room with just guys that have been kind of cast off from other clubs. And that's kind of how the roster as a whole looks.

Brandon Cooks is a big name in the young receiver's room, not a lot of name power in the tight end room either, And it's just this incredibly puzzling roster to makes sense of. Like Rex birkehead Philip dor said O J. Howard are all key cogs on the offense. The strength of the team might be the line. And while they sure could have used all those picks, not for nothing, Larry mt. Tunsill is one of the best left tackles in football. So do you want a great left tackle

or three premium players. I choose the ladder, and that's why he commands such a steep price, right, I mean, and they nailed their other book and player at that position with Titus Howard. The right tackles are great. I loved offensive guard Kenyan Green coming out. In fact, I love their entire two class as a step in the right direction to rebuilding the roster. Derek Stingley is an awesome looking rookie cornerback, same with safety. Rookie safety Jalen Petra.

Christian Harris is the outside linebacker that can play. Jerry Hughes having a resurgence after a brilliant career in Buffalo, and their book and there the very talent of Jonathan Grenard is on the injured reserve, so they do have some talent upfront, so there's some nice young pieces. They compete most weeks and have played some tight games despite their record. They played the Eagles tight into the fourth quarter. They took a six and two Giants team right down

to the end and lost by just one score. Of the week prior to the Titans. Granted, context tells you none of those games were ever really in danger for the opposition. But we're trying here, and with that, let's go ahead and get into a Dolphins offense versus Texans defense. We start, as we do weekly, with the quarterback and the Dolphins offense versus the opposing defense and their safety position.

I mentioned the promotion of Lovey Smith from DC to head coach and he maintained the play calling this year. And what does that mean Tampa two. Nobody loves some Tampa two more than Lovey Smith. What that is is cover two, which you all know what that means. Too high safety's cloud corners underneath garden, the curl flat area, and then a middle linebacker who once he recognizes as a pass gets on his horse and gets down the middle of the pipe to take away the middle of

the field that those safeties open up. It stresses your mike backer to be ultra instinctive and fast, and it means a lot of even fronts. Do the Texans have that? I don't think. So. They run four three percent of the time, they run Nickels sixty five percent time. They don't really match the personnel those are the only two packages they deployed the entire season, even when teams go heavy or spread it out. If you're heavy, you'll see four three. If you've got three receivers or more on

the field, you'll get nickel. So it's a good way simply put it's it's it's one of the craziest schemes I've seen this year, or for any year for that matter. It invites linebackers to cover in the slot. It puts two and sixty five pound players out in space, one on one against wide receivers when teams call upon their four wide looks. It offers free access across the entire field, and that middle linebacker has to be able to flow, not just sideline to sideline over the top of outside

zone and get get wide on place. He has to also be able to get twenty five yards of depth down the pipe and coverage. They'll also ask him to run the pipe and match with the three to the field from a mugged up pre snap alignment. That means on the line of scrimmage, and then you have to chase receiver you're outflanked against who's faster than you. Tough ask they are in a single high look. Most of

the times pre snap uh cover one two high. They've played nineteen snaps in zero or three snaps with three high, so it's basically one high or two high, and they usually rotate into a two high coverage too high shell. But that's why we pair film with numbers, because that's more often than not rotated with that too high look with the middle of the field open and that Tampa

two back or running on the pipe. As for how they play in terms of their aggressiveness outside, it's eight percent with five yards or more cushion, and then with three yards or fewer of cushion with two of We've seen him attack those types of looks effectively because of his ability to move players with his eyes and anticipate soft spots and zones before they open up. The defense will keep eyes in the quarterback, and ideally the cloud corners underneath can play the eyes of the quarterback and

let them make some splash play. So for TWA, keep playing at the same level and he'll have some opportunity used to pick up some more chunk yardage. However, if that's not the same performance we get, then this secondary can turn you over and we know the turnover margin can be the great equalizer in a game like this. Incidentally, Derek Stingley I think was the best cornerback in that draft, but he only played thirty six cover two snaps in his college career. But I think you are seeing him

get more and more comfortable each week. But it is a situation where you're playing a guy outside of what he does best, which yeah, I don't know. How about their blitzing and pressure packages blitz and production eighteen point nine percent blitz rate is the tenth lowest, the pressure rates the eighteenth most. So there are pretty effective at four man rushing quarterbacks, and that was even better with a healthy Jonathan Grenard. But Jerry Hughes and Marasheem Green

have had really nice seasons so far. But here is where Miami has a massive opportunity. It's the best middle of the field passing team in football. Right we all agree on that the Texans have struggled there because opponents down the middle, UH, down the middle in ten plush yards over the last four games, UH, not counting the Washington game last week. Daniel Jones two for three forty one yards. Jalen Hurts three for four seventy one yards.

Malik Willis tried one pass and it was picked in that Titans game, but they literally had him throw ten passes all game. I'm gonna throw that one out and then Derek Carr four for four with seventy four yards.

We know the Dolphins have been most effective passing offense on throws between the numbers ten plush yards downfield the Texans since the bye week, and removing that Malik Willis game nine for eleven for a buck eighty six on such throws, two on play action league leading one thousand and five passing yards off play action Texans versus play actions since Week four forty four fifty eight, five hundred and fifty four yards, three touchdowns and a pick. Again,

I removed the Malik Willis game. Dolphins strengths match up with the Texans weaknesses very well across the board. Here. Let's look at their safeties and it starts with one of my favorite players, rookie from Baylor, Jalen Peatray. He's got some serious Jesse bates to him the Star up in Cincinnati to his game and that he recognized his concepts developed and he can anticipate them on top of being one of the twitchiest athletes on the field. It's

a great combination to have at that position. It's a fun matchup with he too, who has been one of, if not the best in the league when it comes to moving defenders with his eyes and that post snap manipulation. I don't think these numbers are reflection of Peatre's game this season, and we like like we mentioned with single Stingley,

he's learning a different style of defense. But Petre is a sixteen of nineteen in coverage this year for two hundred and sixty yards, three touchdowns and two picks on two hundred nineties seven coverage naps. PFF has him with twenty one missed tackles on a Houston defense that has the most miss tackles in the NFL. They've also allowed the most yards after initial contact, so contact balance eating up some yak could be a big focus this week. Petre does have twenty one run stop, so he's making

his share of plays as well. Like most really talented rookies, there's a lot of good but some ups and downs that come with the NFL season. And then Jonathan Owens is the next safety. I'm not familiar with his game outside of the games I've watched for this prep. This is his first year as a full time starter after going undrafted and catching all with the Texans ten snaps that year, one sixty eight last year, and now five

fifty four this year is a full time starter. His numbers ten of sixteen, two forty five yards, three touchdowns, no picks. It's got just five run stops. And that's how the defense goes with him playing inside less than fifteen percent of the snaps and Petre a little more than half of it. Snaps down there, but still he'll bell out and play Cover two high or too high. Look with Cover two, but fine number five on the defense, he's the Jenga piece back there. It's like this, they're

so far off the football. The linebackers are too far up on the football, and these intermediate shots get attributed to them with all kinds of space. That's why the yards per reception and the in the yak are absolutely insane against these safeties. They also get called upon to cover receivers deep when the cloud corners pass off. One of the crazier parts of this defense is how infrequently they insert a safety in the running game. And then

they missed more tackles than anybody else on tape. There are a lot of runs that get to the second level untouched, and then it's a bunch of space for these safeties to operate within. Again, it's a tough defense to master that really needs at Brian or Lacker type to make it click. And the expectations should Jip be in this game to score every single time you touch the football. Let's go ahead and take our first break and come back on the other side. We'll get to

the receivers and tight ends versus the cornerbacks. We are deep into it. Plenty more to come here on the preview edition of the Drivetime Podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation. Back here on a special Tuesday preview edition of the Drivetime Podcast. No podcast for you guys on Thursday and Friday, enjoy your holidays. Will have the great Mark Vandermere from the Houston Texans

radio broadcast on the show tomorrow. We picked this back up here taking a look at the Dolphins receivers and tight ends versus the Texans corners. I just like, look, there are a lot of holes in most zone coverages and I think this one has the potential to see some of those Baltimore openings we saw. It's soft with the roof on top and corners playing big, big cushions. As we reference the stat earlier, you know eighty percent

of the time they're playing off coverage. Then the linebackers are easily influenced because they don't have the speed to both get to the perimeter and to the hook zone. You can boot to space with the flats too. Like the team, speed is going to be an issue, and against this offense, that's always an issue even if you do have a fast defense. They do do do a fantastic job of limiting the deep passing play no completions on balls over twenty eight yards in the last three games.

Derek Carr had a two for two fifty three yard day back in Week six, and Herbert went four for five with nine two throwing the ball deep in Week four. But by and large, they've kept the ball in front of them. They protect the roof and play aggressive down front, so teams have really gone after the intermediate area, which again is where the Dolphins offense tends to eat, and

you'll get plenty of linebacker and safety on wide receiver matchups. Again, one of the most zone centric defenses in the NFL, so the individual coverage numbers don't always tell the full story. The amount of off coverage they play out there, however, opens up that space in the flats in the screen game and with some runs around the edge, so our receivers need to block the screens well, blocked the runs well, and make some people missed to turn short throws into

chunk gains. We know Tyreek, Jalen Trent Sheriff have all excelled in that area all year. So while it's always enticing to attack vertically and if you get a chance to absolutely do it, why not, But it's the more enticing part of this matchup is that where Miami's had its most consistent success, that area has consistently given the

Texans the most issues every single week. It's a lot of completions and the short areas outside the numbers almost nothing by way of perimeter shots ten or more yards down the field, but a bunch of throws in the middle, which is how the Tampa two defense kind of funnels things. Primary corners on the field of the Texans. Derek Stingley three nine coverage snaps. This is before last game. By

the way, I didn't update my stats. Three nine coverage snaps thirty three forty four fourteen yards, no touchdowns in a pick. Steven Nelson three coverage snaps twenty of thirty three touchdown in a pick that in the nickel, Desmond King two teen snaps sixteen twenty three one A two no touchdowns and the pick. So teams are getting a lot of yards when they put the ball up in the air. The corner with the next most coverage snaps is tavierre Thomas. I think I said that right just seventeen,

but those are recent. He's playing well for them recently. Curious to see if he gets a shot at more time this week. I'd love to give you a more detailed look, but I think it comes down to just continuing to do what you do well and challenge them to stop it if they play with that secured roof

up top. We saw the Browns do that all game long in Miami through those inbreakers, comebacks and then operated in space to surefield Gosicki and backs when Tyreeke and Jalen stretch the defense out that style pair with how I think the running game can do. I'm just not

sure what they can do to stop it. To be completely frank with you, one of my favorite things to track each week is the athletic ability of the secondary versus Miami, primarily in the slot, when Tyreek and Jalan can condense inside for a few snaps and just change the game from that area. Desmond Kings the primary slot guy.

He's a four six guy with gray change of direction six six seven con three cone time, but he's a slower build, a speed guy with just a nine o nine broad a thirty four inch verse, so he's not very explosive. I like Waddle and his route running in quickness here in this position. Steven Nelson is a four five guy, nearly the exact same broad invert as we talked about King, a decent three cone just under seven.

Tyreek was six point five for what it's worth, so when you think about how to compare those, a six five three cone versus a seven three cone is a big change of direction mismatch. And then Derek Stanley was four four five. We did see two and get him deep on a deep ball against the L s U Tigers with Bama a few years back, better explosion, but his three comb was dead seven. Oh. So like the

matchups just aren't really there. You can see why they play so much off coverage, not a lot of shiftiness to deal with guys like Tyreke and Jalen at the line. On the offensive line verse defensive line. Jerry Hughes can still do it man. He leaves their defense and pressures and sacks. He rushes almost exclusively off the offense's left side. But we also saw what to run Armstead did to keep Myles Garrett to just one pressure on twenty two

pass rush snaps. Jerry Hughes is a technician with a great first step, so it's a fun matchup of good on good because Armstad's technique is as good as it gets. The Texans come in with the worst ranked run defense in football. Again, there's no reason to think this can't look like the Cleveland game. They are super thin on the interior Jeff Wilson. Again, it's an area they've had some bad luck with from an injury standpoint. Four of their eight players on the various reserve list this season.

Our front seven guys Malik Collins carries the most proven resume inside he's got a quick first step off the ball that allows him to get their one gap penetrating defense started inside. But just thirteen quarterback pressures eight run stops. I always enjoy watching the Dolphins go after these one gap defenses that want to beat you to the gap because that's a lot of what Miami's offensive line does well. And it always fascinates me how fast and precise are

guys are upfront against a like minded defensive line. Connor Williams has been such a glue piece this year in that regard, whether he's got a one man sponsibility or he's attacking with one of the guards on a catch climb, double team situation, he's just been everything you could ask for. So for Collins and Ray Lopez a second, you know, second year player draft in the sixth round two years ago,

also third team pressures and seven run stops. Or for Kurt Hennish and undrafted rookie this year, who's got seven pressures and five run stops. I mean, those are your top three snaptakers on the interior. They all fall six to three fifteen pound rage. So winning off the snap is gonna be a key with both Rob's hunt and Jones going three and three thirty four against those undersized guys. If they get to the spot first, they're not gonna get off those blocks. So play the way you have been.

If you thought the line caught some bodies against the Browns, this could be a clinic this time around. The Texans roster is not that far off from the Dolphins nineteen roster. Quite frankly and outside we mentioned Hugh was his thirty pressures are more than double the number two guy. That's exactly double the number two guy. With Rashem Green having fifteen,

they are your tops naptakers among your down linemen. That's a great pressure rate and gives you a sense of how they're getting pressure at a rate better than their blitz rate. Forty five pressures on three seventy five pass rush snaps from those two edge defenders is a total of twelve percent pressure rate. It's a good combination. It's big matchups for Toront, Armstead and Brandon Shell provided that's the tackle combination going into the game. Style Wise, Hues

again that physical technician. The latter aspect always makes for a fun matchup against Toron because he typically handles it, and then Green and Shell would be a fun matchup two because Shell at six ft five checks in against a big, heavy handed green at sight. Fun matchups there, Albanio Aqua Ronco, I know I butchered that, not gonna try to gain. Kept showing up on the tape against the Giants. He's their top sub rusher off the bench. Nine pressures on a hundred and five pass rush snaps.

Keep an eye on him. He's a pretty good player. Their numbers defending the run off the edge are really good, top ten the league in fact, but their average yards per rush between the tackles are dead last. Again. Jeff Wilson running backs and linebackers. That takes us to our final position group here on this side of the ball. Just want to start by saying, I love the way Christian Harris plays. He's the Jalen Peatre at the front seven. He knows where he's going and he gets there fast.

He missed the first five games, but man, he's popping up against the Giants on that tape, cutting down the runs, screens, playing well in coverage. He was a workout beast with elite scores and all the explosive and time metrics, and he plays like it. However, there are countless situations with a play action look and the linebacker has to honor the outside run and then try to turn and run with anybody who is condensed into the formation. And we

do this with receivers, with backs with tight ends. I just don't know how it's gonna work. And then the fact that they mug up and bail out with a ten yard landmark drop. It puts so much stress in the linebackers in the defense. And that's a rough pairing with their r a s because Harris is a stud with eleven foot broad four four forty time blazing ten and twenty splits. But from there it gets pretty rough because Christian Kirksey, uh Blake Cashman, it's not it's not

their bread and butter. Christian Kirksy has twenty three run stops this year, but teams are twenty five of thirty five, with two sixty two throwing a ball against him. He's the only one that has significant pass rush snaps thirty five snaps, nine pressures. But teams, these guys coverage numbers are terrible because of the way they're putting these positions. Blake Cashman five run stops just fourteen coverage snaps. H Harris has nine run stops eleven for fourteen one six

yards throwing at him. All of these guys allow ten point five yards per catch or butter. That's a lot for linebackers. It's a lighter, faster linebacker crew. Two thirty five pounds for the two primaries and Kirksey and Cashman too for Harris. So again it's I think they're they're there. Their play styles are not going to benefit them against either the run or the past. The combination to and

of the inability to hold the point of attack. At the point of attack paired with linebackers, they get stuck on blocks. Hopefully the Dolphins can execute on a similar level of the Cleveland game, because no trio of linebackers has fewer run stops and a worse run stop efficiency. So that's your look at the Dolphins offense for the Texas defense, Let's go ahead and take our last break and come back here and do the other side of the football. Dolphins and Texans coming up here in week

number twelve. That's Next Draft Time podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation, Segment number three. Here on a week twelve preview edition of the Draft Time podcast. We pick it back up. We're gonna do the entire Dolphins defense versus Texans offense in this segment, and we start with the quarterback position and the offensive structure versus the Dolphins defense and their safety position and their offensive coordinator.

Pep Hamilton's has coached in a lot of successful quarterback rooms around. I've been around a lot of polished quarterbacks in this league. He's had stints as an OC across pro and college football, which is where he is now with the Houston Texans. They run an offensive the lines as follows. Eleven personnel fifty twelve personnel seventeen per sent

thirteen personnel's nine percent. They run out twenty one two backs, one tight end twelve percent of the time and two backs, two tight ends, two personnel that's nine percent of the time. That's more variety than most offenses. And it's an offense that lends itself to a lot of power running and

a successful run game at that. The key here is I don't think it's all that dissimilar to the Browns game last week that they want to run it, and the best way to defeat that plan is early down success in scoring points on offense to eventually flip them into a one dimensional attack. Most teams have been able to do that this year. They'll still commit to the run and get their yards, but by the time they

do it's usually over. They add gaps in the running game, which you can see with all the additional tight end fullback action they have in their personnel usage. What I think is interesting about all this is two fold. Number one. It's one of the most conservative offenses in the NFL. They subscribe to the established the run, where the defense down two to three yard runs can become twenty to thirty yard runs later. They run the ball on early downs.

If they throw in complete on our first down, they'll run the ball in second and ten. It's a tough offense for a young quarterback like Davis Mills because the majority of his past attempts come in obvious passing situations,

which is the toughest time to throw. And then too, I don't think he has a lot of autonomy at the line of scrimmage because the Giants game featured an awful lot of running into bad box counts and then off that they can you know their ability to move Mills in the running game allows him to boot and build speed where he can be effective as a runner or thrower on the move. I mentioned this about Mac Jones and Jared Goff, and I think the you know,

the style is relatively similar. If you can hem those guys in off the edge and forcing the play inside, you could potentially get some big plays by way of sacks, tipped balls, bad timing. It is a traditional style run game with an immobile quarterback. Again, this should be Cleveland Part two but better. The Giants came after Mills when they got behind the chains, and they were effective with it.

They blissed him on twenty four of his forty one dropbacks, but he plays really poised for a second year quarterback. And we'll cover the Texans line here in a moment, but it's a strength of the team. Mills was one with one and sixty six yards against the Blitz. That's really dang good. In fact, on the year sixt on nineties seven throws for seven point eight yards per past, five touchdowns and no picks. That's really good for a second year QB. Especially last game we saw Miami dial

back there. Blitz this to a season low, but they registered their best pressure rate. That's the thinking behind Bradley chub Right. He pairs so well with Jalen Phillips, and either one of those guys one on one is a mismatch, then that creates one on one chances for guys like Christian Wilkins and Zach Seeler. Inside, I'm curious to see the plan here. And yet again, just like Cleveland, this is a four man rush game all day long. That,

of course, is always the case with Javon Holland. Where does Javon Holland find himself on a snap by snap basis. He's been a massive part of one of the best defenses in terms of defending the intermediate and deep portions. The Browns were just four for ten throwing the ball ten plus yards in that game against Miami. Mills downfield has been very effective, can pleation four yards and three touchdowns, but also four picks, and a lot of that is

taking the chances with these high arching deep balls. So with Javon's range, maybe he can prevent them from taking those shots or even get his hands on one or two. Mills does tend to put a ton of air under these throws. And it does take three point one two seconds on average to get it off, so I think Holland would be able to kind of contend just reading

his eyes, but also the pressure up front. Again, it's a good recipe or from Miami, Mills is time to throw this here is two point six three when not blitzed. Miami's average four man rush time to hit the quarterback was under two point five last game, so something has to give in that stat. I think Miami's finding their groove with their four man rush. And then with regards to Eric rowe expect him to have a busy day sticking his face and the fan against the running game

of the Texans. They want to get pierced downhill, and I'm always impressed by the way twenty one takes on his one on one chances at the point of attack against big backs in the running game, receivers and tight ends versus cornerbacks. It starts with Brandon Cooks and kind of ends there too. Going back to Oregon State, He's one of my favorite route runners I've ever seen. Explosive, twitchy and small spaces, excellent hands and feel. He's their

guy with Miami's four man rush, looks last game. They're able to vary coverages even more, and that's a big reason with how you wind up with everyone getting targets on everybody across the board. There's a slight trend with this team where X is performing well, particularly against bigger body wide receivers, and Cater matching up nicely with the more shifty guys, and he plays really damn competitive in the slot, but Cooks only goes in there twenty percent

at the time. You think it'd be more than that. But it'll be interesting to see how those matchups play out. To me. X gets Cooks when he's wide and Cater takes him when he goes inside. But also more to that in a second, Nico Collins is next and targets he has. Cooks has twenty more targets than Collins does. He's the complete opposite of Cooks. He's six fifteen pounds and wants to play above the rim. How about this

stat nine for eleven on contested catches. That'll be fun to see if they go after him when he draws. Number twenty five Xavian Howard and coverage physical on physical. The Texans throw short of the sticks on third down at the third highest rate in the NFL, So it's very important to come up and tackle. They have over one thousand yak yards on the season, So tackle, tackle, tackle.

Chris Moore, Philip Dorset get the next most targets. And they're kind of like Cooks and Colins and that you have a bigger body and more and a smaller shift your type in door set. But this is a group Miami should be able to match up well with. Only Cooks gets consistent separation. I would probably double him and let the Texans take their you know, their basic stuff, you know outside the deep shot back shul or hitge conversions.

Let them try it. You can play a lot of man coverage because in an immobile quarterback with not great separation downfield, he's not gonna drive throws to the field side of the formation either, so you don't have to have a safety over there. Can you put Holland closer to the line of scrimmage that or double the boundary? To me, this is a game where you turn Javon loose a little bit in terms of play that man

free coverage. You know, single highest safety man coverage rush for and see if eight can't hunt a couple of picks back there. I think he can in this game

on the offensive line verse defensive line. Really good old line here for the Texans, And of course that plays into mills his ability to hitch up, scan the field and throw it from clean pockets, but also pick up those blitzes and afford him more time to get the ball to his hot Larry matuns is one of the best, has some of the best feet I've ever seen at any position, much less left tackle. You're not gonna cross

him up. You're probably not gonna beat him with speed either, So I wonder how often you might see Chub go with that bull rush and try to push through him. One thing I love that he did against Cleveland was rushed the inside post and stress the rest of the offensive line when they slide protection away from him. The Texans will slide away from Tunsil because he's such a good one on one on an island matchup guy that you can potentially push that inside post and get more

pressure coming around the outside. Fun one to watch their Chub on Tounsil. I'm a huge fan of Kenyan Green. Even though his rookie year has been a very slow start, he leads the team so far with thirty three pressures allowed. In fact on three and seventy eight pass blocking snaps, Tunzel has just seven pressures allowed and he's played every snap.

At the other tackle position, Titus Howard has played every snap as well, and he has just twenty one pressures allowed to the tackle position on balance is pretty good, but you kick inside and all three of their guys have played like the snaps between Green, Quest, keston Berry and a j can thirty three pressures, twenty six pressures and fifth team pressures. So that's where you can kind of get some heat on this team up the middle. The first thing you noticed there is how much continu

do they have. They've been largely healthy on the offensive line. They do utilize a lot of heavy personnel as well, so in addition to the extra tight end or fullback, they'll bring Justin McCrae or Casey McDermott on the field

for some six and seven man offensive line formations. And with those past rush numbers, remember this team passes a lot against teams that know the run games out of the equation, but when the scoreboard are still within reason, both Green and keston Berry can blow guys off the ball, blow hats off the ball. I should say, this is where Miami size comes into play. Need a strong showing from Wilkins, Davis and Seiler, and then from the backers

off the edge. That's where I think a lot of this defense drives and or drives from, I should say, and then the interior guys can get off blocks and make plays of their own. Finishing up at running back in linebacker for this position or for this side of the football. One of the most productive backs in football and Damian Pierce, and I think his style is similar to Chubbs from last game, and that you better get him behind the line and don't let him build the speed.

I thought Baker's Baker and Roberts played as well as they have all year, and really as Dolphins frankly and almost took the challenge of Chubb. Personally, would love to see a copy and paste performance there. They are such a unique offense in the sense that they are more than happy to eliminate eligibles to get extra gaps, So it's a big game for the linebackers to provide some

context to that. Houston is fifth in the NFL running from twenty one personnel with six point six yards per Cary So defending a fullback in the running game big piece of challenge this week from Miami. Pierce has twenty runs of ten plush yards. He's averaging three point six yards after initial contact and has forced fifty three miss tackles. They have a fifty fifty man zone split. It's a really good, diverse running game. That's how they get their points,

that's how they get their yards. And offense stop him, you'll stop their offense on special teams. Really good d v O A number four in the NFL. Miami's dead last in that category. Kyami Fairbaron is one of the best kickers in football. He has just two misses this year out of nineteen field goals. He's seven for eight from the nine range, five of six for thirty to thirty nine range, and it's hit all three of his

kicks from fifty plus yards. They've punted forty four times with Cameron Johnson for an average of forty eight points having per punt. Granted, this was before the Washington game. I recorded this late Sunday, so I didn't get that updated to some time. Jason Sanders is thirteen for seventeen three of those misses from fifty plus and of course twenty nine yard kick in Chicago. Thomas Moore said, thirty

one points forty five point seven per kick. What's at stake here from my MBA four game winning streak, a chance to pick up a win in conference, which is

always valuable in future tie breaking scenarios. We are officially to Thanksgiving, so you can start taking a look at the standings in the Dolphins position in that competitive a f C East, jockeying for a position with Buffalo and the Jets, and depending on what happens with Thanksgiving, the lines and bills, it could either be trying to keep pace with them or stay out in front of them atop the a f C East, which is something we know all Dolphins fans want a home and playoff games.

Sounds lovely. Getting a win here keeps you in line to do that, but also, hey, like, don't lose to a one win team. You want to undo all the positive momentum you've captured. Lose to this team, and that will accomplish that. The three Keys start fast, get out to an early lead, put the Texans behind the scoreboard. That's going to change the way they play offense one dimensionally, big way first offense team to get going. Number two

run the ball and utilize play action. We talked about the spaces in the middle intermediate part of the field, throwing the ball off play action and putting those linebackers in a bind. Keep those conflict defenders and conflict and Number three get hats to the ball on defense. Don't let Pierce build up to speed and let him run through tackles. If you get behind the line, he can't do his stuff, just like we did with Nick Chubb two weeks ago. Those are your three keys. That's your matchup.

Preview edition of the Draft Time Podcast Mark Vandermere on the show tomorrow. Do not do not, do not miss him on the podcast. In the meantime, you all please be sure to subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcast. Leave us a rating, leave us a review. You can follow me on Twitter at Wings NFL, follow the team at Miami Dolphins. Check out the Fish Tank podcast. The postgame show on five sixty right after the game ends down here in local radio in South Florida are Wednesday

night Twitter Spaces show No show this week. Back with you guys next week. Previewing the Niners game in a big trip out west to the two California teams. Also the international podcast I Believe I'm doing the Brazilian podcast this coming week. Check that out as well. The YouTube channel for Media Availabilities and Dolphins Today Some Drive having fish Tank content, and last but not least, Miami Dolphins dot Com until next time finds up Caroline Daddy's He's Coming hold