Dolphins Falcons Week 7 Preview

Falcons this Sunday at hard Rock Stadium. Will go position by a position, get your key data, talk about the film I watched this week. We'll look at the keys, how the Dolphins will win this game, and we'll kick off the week seven picks tonight with Thursday Night Football from the Baptist Health Studios inside the Baptist Health Training Complex. This is the Drive Time Podcast best and so the Dolphins will attempt to right the ship after a tough one in five start to the season and a familiar foe.

You might say, how is that? How are they familiar? Travis will come back to hard Rock Stadium after their trip back in August for a pair of joint practices and an eventual thirty seven seventeen exhibition victory for Miami in the building across the street from me right now, and the Falcons didn't play their starters in that game, and the Miami Dolphins found their rhythm offensively in that contest,

and so to the defense too. But of course it'll be a lot different this time around, as the Falcons are an interesting study coming into this game, as we start every preview podcast here taking a look at the opposition, how they got to this point where they are in

their organizational build and foundation, all that fun stuff. And we start here with a team that was one quarter away from a championship just six years ago three blew that lead in the Super Bowl, have had some tough times since then, not able to replicate that success or really anything close to it. And the interesting aspect of it all to me is that the quarterback has been the same through it all. How many quarterbacks survived multiple rebuilds, and I think the talent of Matt Ryan is the

reason why he has. And he's been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL of the last fifteen years. I think one of the most criminally underrated quarterbacks throughout the course of his career. But we'll come back to that. Since that heartbreaking Super Bowl loss, Atlanta returned to the postseason just once the following season, with a Divisional round exit after a victory in the wild card round to the upstart Los Angeles Rams and Sean McVeigh. And that

was coming off a ten win season. After the eleven win season resulted in the Super Bowl appearance for Atlanta, they followed that up with a pair of seven win seasons before really bottening out last year at four and twelve, which ultimately cost Dan Quinn his job and resulted in Arthur Smith getting the job this year. But even though seven win seasons the two years prior occurred in a way where despite the fact that they ultimately finished just a couple of games shy of the postseason, it was

over pretty quickly. And they began this season one and four, got back to four and four, but then fell to four and nine, and in nineteen they started one and seven, and in the four and twelve campaign last year they

began the season oh and five. So slow starts have plagued this Falcons team, but this has been the time of the year where they start to get things kind of going a little bit, and that's going to be critical to keep an eye on, do they get the offensive weapons going like they should on this Falcons offense. Is the defense gonna bounce back and play a little bit better football here down the stretch and that's also kind of been the trajectory of this Dolphins team in

the last couple of years. Right, So an interesting matchup here Sunday is Arthur Smith brings his team to hard Rock Stadium. Let's get into it, starting where we always start, with the opposing quarterback and those training camp practices back in August. We're a nice example of two guys with

PhDs in football doing battle. Matt Ryan talked about Brian Flores texting with him or it was a phone call I can't read all about joking about drawing up some new stuff for him since Mattie Ice has seen everything this game has to offer, and there was plenty of that in those practices. Remember that two minute period where Emmanuel Ogba had back to back sacks and another pressure

that forced Ryan to throw the football away. The Dolphins brought the heat in that practice, but there were also a handful of times where Ryan threw under the face of pressure two spots and made the blitzing Dolphins defense pay for it. That was a fun couple of practices and a good chess match back and forth between those two. But how does how do those numbers bear out for

a game that actually counts in the standings? Well against the blitz this year, Matt Ryan's efficiency, like most good quarterbacks, goes up, but he's more prone to the turnover. All three of his interceptions this season have come when the

opposition sends an extra rusher in his face. And to incorporate the Miami safety play here, you guys know how impressed I've been with Javon Holland throughout the course of really his tenure here since getting back arriving back in April, and I think his range is already very impressive and the ability to disguise will only continue to get better each week as we see him get more work and

more experience and more seasoning. And that play in the Jacksonville game to drive on that broken play with the Lawrence scramble on the other side of the formation man,

that was just beautiful. And looking at Matt Ryan's passing chart, particularly twenty plus yards, his only completions in that range come right down the middle of the field, which typically suggests two high beaters right to cover two beaters with the two high safeties are not cover two, but just having two safeties pie of formation, and you run that

tight end of your slot right on the seam. And then Ryan certainly adept enough to recognize that matchup quick enough to get the ball into that difficult location before they can rotate and react. And think about two US pass to Derham smithe this past Sunday, quick stand up and throw it right over the top of the linebackers who would be the pipe runner and the old classic Tampa two where you had your two safeties kind of split wide and then you run that linebacker down the pipe.

But you can't do that so much in today's NFL because there's too much speed in the receiving game. But you beat the safeties with the quickness of the release and throw the football early to make that happen. In fact, the Falcons average five point five five yards per play against two high looks and four point nine seven yards per play against single high looks, and I think that jives with the strength of their offense, which takes us

into our next matchup. But real quick here Ryan is three for six with a two yards passing and a touchdown down the middle twenty plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and then outside the numbers to the left over two and right outside the numbers O for four, so O for six combined there and a total of three of twelve throwing twenty or more yards down the field.

That's the stat that I think Miami has to maintain in this game because the options they have in the horizontal game and the intermediate portion of the field with Cordurell Paterson and Kyle Pitts, it's really challenging to defend those guys, which brings us into the Falcons receivers and

tight ends verse the Dolphins cornerbacks and Patterson. He's lit did as a running back now and he was one of my biggest draft crushes back even though he was one of the most prolific return men in the history

of the National Football League the last several years. Can I maybe finally celebrated victory on him as a draft nick eight years after the fact, even though it didn't work in Minnesota's a receiver, but he's got forty one catches on the season and carry so he lines up in the backfield, but he catches the football ton Four of his five touchdowns have come on the through the air, I should say, with one on the ground, and he's got just four point two yards per rushes a ball

carrier and eleven point eight yards per catch as a receiver. I thought this guy was gonna be a big play vertical receiver coming out, but he's found his niche here with the Falcons and Arthur Smith, and he dictates a lot of what they do as he's used on motion so frequently, which obviously helps Ryan get his pre snap indicators for the coverage what the defense might do to rotate. But he's still much more than that. He's effective in the screen game. He's valuable on jet sweeps and pop passes.

He can straight uptake carries and run behind side zone or duo. I mean, he's truly one of the most versatile players in the National Football League, and I think he creates this conflict between playing bass and sub when he's on the field, and that obviously helps Matt Ryan to decide whether or not he wants to run the ball or pass it depending on his checks or depending on his matchups and the other weapon I think you focus on most. It's not a receiver, it's a tight end.

How many teams are tight end slash running back driven offensively unique for sure, though I thought the most prevalent instance of Pitts and Patterson led offense was in the absence of Calvin Ridley, who missed the last Falcons game for personal reasons. But he's back, So I want to start with Kyle Pitts first, though. Matchup nightmare. We talked

about this all draft season long, right. He can post guys up, he can run routes like a receiver, he can attack leverage, he has quickness on the two way goes to make you pay for that. He's just a very, very skilled player. One of four players and I thought were just significantly different than the rest of the class in terms of those skill players with Waddle, Smith, Chase and Pitts. But he had his coming out party in London.

In that game that Ridley did not play, nine of ten targets were caught for a hundred and nineteen yards and you can see the peril he was putting those Jets defenders in because if you play him tight, he can beat you with that quickness, and if you play off, he's gonna just attack leverage and make contested catches when you drive on the football. So it's a tough matchup

and that brings us back to the safety distribution. Seems like a good opportunity here to for me to watch Javon holl And cover the deep portion of the field and load up with a second, maybe even a third and big nickel packages or dime packages with your third safety on the field down close to the line of scrimmage. Now, with Ridley back, it seems like it might be a good time to let Xavian Howard travel, provided that he plays in the game. He was limited in practice on Wednesday.

But if he travels with Ridley, that guy's a technician and he'll get his because the Falcons will not shy away from targeting him. And you know how I feel about targeting x double digit times in a game, and that's ten plus times you're risking a turnover with the best ball hawk in the that sational football league. Good

on good, Let's see who's good is better. And Ridley does go inside to the slot of the time, so it's not a Boocanneers situation where Antonio Brown can kick in you know, thtent of the time inside he can, but he doesn't do it that often. And that's where I think you have to consider the press trail with a cap a double team technique on Ridley when he goes inside. Pits, however, is from the slot, So the idea of doubling there makes sense to on both those looks,

whether it's Pits or Ridley. Otherwise, if Byron Jones is back, that could be a good matchup with Russell Gauge, who's also questionable to come back for this game. I believe he quietly has had a pretty good year and he's a pretty good receiver, I should say in his own right. So this is a good on good type of matchup here. And this number real quick to close up is crazy to me. The Cordill Patterson's A dot average depth of target is three point eight yards and the averages three

point nine three yards per route run. That's like almost top in the National Football League with one of the lowest A dots also averages seven point eight yards after the catch on average. Watch out for that guy. Then we go into the trenches. The Atlanta offensive line versus Dolphins defensive line and their pressure numbers allowed are as such Jake Matthews six pressures, one QB hit, no sacks, Chris Lyndstrom the exact same six pressures, one hit, no sex.

Matt Hennessy, the former Temple Owl who had a really good Senior Bowl a couple of years back, twelve pressures allowed, one sack allowed. Then the right side things get a little bit more dicey. Jalen Mayfield, the rookie twenty pressures, four sacks, nine hits allowed. And Caleb McGarry, the former you dub Husky Go Cougas baby four team pressures, two sacks and four hits. They really hit on the left

side of this offensive line. It was a bit of a slow burn for them, but both Matthews and Lyndstrom have developed into really really good players on that left side, and Hennessey, I think is coming on to now. You'll notice the other two players were also high draft picks. All five of these guys were. In fact, I think Mayfield at pick this past season is the lowest of

the bunch. But they are not having as much success on that right side this season, with the combined thirty four pressures allowed off that right side of the offensive line, So I look at some of the matchups here. We talk all the time about Emmanuel Ogba's hands right, the heavy hands, the cross chop, the ability to get that tackle upfield, swipe the hands down corner and get to

the quarterback when you flatten that thing. And that's where I think Kayla McGarry has had some struggles on tape this year, so I'm very intrigued to see how they approach Emmanuel Ogba and if he can go ahead and take over this game off that right side. It's the same deal inside to the position next to him. And we talked about Christian Wilkins hands on the podcast this week. I swear he's he's faster and better with the hands this year. It's produced more production for Christian Wilkins, but

that paired with the quickness off the football. I liked them a lot as a tandem in the rush game this week, especially if you can run some games off that side and kind of mix things up. But just using both those guys quickness, get off, lateral agility and heavy hands could have a good impact off the right side of the Falcon's offensive line. And Mayfield just kind of look at some of the guys they've played against

this year. He had his hands full with the Eagles early in the season and Fletcher Cox and a couple of weeks ago against Washington and Jonathan Allen, two of the better interior guys in the league. And his best game was against the interior Giants defensive line that has a guy like Dexter Lawrence who's more size and power than he has quickness and speed. So I think Wilkins

is a good matchup there. And then McGarry struggles with John Frank Lamers of the Jets and Montes Sweat of the Football Team, both bigger, heavier handed guys like Emmanuel Ogba. Then finally, our last matchup on that side of the football, the Falcons running backs. First, the Dolphins linebackers. Mike Davis is an absolute bowling ball who offers production the passing game. It's a pretty weird dichotomy there as far as he goes. He averages like three point three yards per carry, but

he's also forced sixteen miss tackles on the season. The challenge here, I think is going to be those twenty one personnel packages, and granted it's like ten snaps a game at most, but it tests your different packages and what you might roll with my personnel perspective, and that's where Matt Ryan can kind of get you to either get too many men on the field, maybe you get misaligned. That's where he really goes after you with his understanding

and knowledge of the games. You have to be careful there. But I think Jerome Baker and not like he ever leaves the field anyway, could have a big role because of what they can do with Patterson. But the other linebacker reps I think will be interesting to see how they divulge those. Do you want to load up and stop the run more Land and Robert style of game? Are you more concerned with the passing game more of a Sam Egbon type of role as well, So how

they decide that will be intriguing in this game. Some offensive notes for the Falcons, they run eleven personnel of the time, but six success rate on the past nice for them. Success rate on the running game, uh A twelve personnel thirty seven percent of the time in that package, So you get a lot of Pits, a lot of hayden Hurst there as well. Only team higher is the Miami Dolphins. But they have a seventy seventy percent success rate in the past and percent success right in the

running game. Out of one personnel, they run that twelve percent of the time. Think Paterson and Davis together fifty percent pass rate success and run rate success. So what does that tell you? This team is a passing team first, pass first, all the way. And it's really been that way since Shanahan left back on the other side of the football. Dolphins quarterback and the Atlanta safeties and office. First game back in which I thought he was very good. Actually,

you know what, why don't we go ahead now? And here from Dolphins co offensive coordinator George Gatzi, who assessed to a tongue about Lowe's first game back from the rib injury that had him on injury reserve this last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. You know, I thought that for a guy that had quite a bit of time off, and uh, you know, it came out firing. We had a couple of penalties that you know we were able to overcome in the first series and uh, this core touchdown.

I thought it was an impressive drive, to be Honestum, yeah, like I said, coming off of an injury and not really being able to practice how he wanted to. I thought I was a credit to him and as far as you know, his his preparation, and uh, you know there's another drive during the during a game where you know, we had turned had to turnover, they got the ball, we stopped him, and you know I had a really impressive touchdown drive. Um, you know, over ninety yards. So

those two drives are really impressive. Um, you know from our perspective, And like I said, he was able to overcome some some negative plays offensively or you know, and convert third downs, which is you know that that's what the quarterback position is about. So um, we're gonna use those as as far as uh things to build on because um, you know, the more drives we have like that, obviously,

the better off will overall be. And to also earned the admiration of ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky, who said that he charted to with four big time reaction throws under pressure, three great crossers, four awesome tight window throws, and they'll need it again to try to match Matt Ryan and the explosive Atlanta offense. As far as the Atlanta safeties go, Eric Harris and dron Harmon are their primary safety is a pair of vets who are difficult to full, especially Harmon.

They will operate in three safety looks quite frequently. Jalen Hawkins has played of their snaps, and I thought two did a fantastic job in his first game back of manipulating the Jaguar safeties even in the face of pressure. Again twenty pressures and no sacks allowed in that game, and that will be the challenge here again for Tuah

to repeat that success. And one thing I think we'd all love to see is to just remove that one mistake that has hit to each of his first two starts here this season, or two of the full games played, I should say, the two picks that take away those two plays and TWA has ratings well north of one hundred and certainly helps value or elevate all the other good plays he has made so far in those two

full games. Now where to one needs the complimentary area of the game to kick in the Dolphins receivers and tight ends against the cornerbacks of the Atlanta Falcons. Davante Parker was back at practice. Adam Shaheen and Preston Williams to all three of them limited on Wednesday, but they were out there for the walkthrough, so it could be a nice full compliment for two of this weekend, sans Fuller obviously, who remains on injury reserve for at least

one more week. But last Sunday we saw twenty two targets to the combination of Waddle and get Sicky and tight ends in general saw nineteen combined targets in that game. We know the Dolphins run more twelve personnel than anybody else in the NFL, and that was heavily featured with Waddle and Hollins as the guys, and that grouping four catches on five targets for sixty one yards for Hollands,

by the way. And so now as Mac continues to show some of the stuff that I thought stood out in camp that really impressed us this August, and the possible inclusion of Davante in Preston to us suddenly has some of the trees to throw the football too on the outside. Not to mention Mike Getsicki, who continues to go off the season, but you paired that with the skill set of Waddle, we saw Albert Wilson get targeted a few times and have his first few catches or

his second, third, fourth catch of the season. Miami had a decent balance of side and speed on the roster at this point. And the reason I mentioned this is because, well, we always say that styles make fights, right, and we always look at the tail of the tape in our matchups. Here and Atlanta's three top snap takers at cornerback Fabian Monroe or Moreau rather excuse me, six ft tall two pounds A J. Terrell six, Isaiah Oliver six ft two oh one, So some big dudes out there. And Moreau

does have the Loan Falcons interception. This season, he's been targeted the most twenty four times. Torell on one fifty one coverage snaps has allowed just six completions on six team targets for forty two yards, and Isaiah Oliver, who primarily plays in the slot, nine completions on fifteen targets for eighty one yards. And when you look at some of their matchups, I always like to go back and see which teams gave that group of players fits. And it should be noted they don't match up or travel

like every game you see on their chart. Every player has reps against three, four or five even six players in the passing options. But the w F game is an interesting study because they had a monster passing day with their stable of burners. And the one I'm intrigued by is a j Terrell. He's been in and out of lineup this year, but the production is very good. He's got a tremendous pedigree. As far as his prospects coming out as a college player, I'll be interested to

see how Miami plays this. We saw the Jags play tons of zone in that game last week, and I love the way to was able to distribute the football and get guys in the sauce spots of those zones. But thinking about when you get behind that second layer with Mike Gasicki on those crossers, Waddle in all capacities.

You guys know how I feel about his game. He can do whatever he whatever, in my opinion, and then you get Parker and Williams maybe back with mac Hollins, they could be able to work the middle of the field with some of the space that's created by those two primary inside guys and Waddle and Gazicki. Now, as

far as Dolphins running backs on Falcons linebackers. The coverage numbers on the A t L linebackers have not been as kind, and since that's where Miami have been kind of going all year, it's really our matchup of the AIME on this side of the ball. PFF has Dion Jones and foisad olakon There's no way I pronounced that right, with a combined thirty five receptions allowed on thirty nine

targets for four hundred and six yards and three touchdown passes. Now, again, they play lots of zone coverage, so those can be over routes behind them, like we saw from Mike last week. They can be shallow crossers that wind up getting at the gate. They can be a lot of things, and you're going to attribute the closest defender for the catch allowed and the yardage allowed. So it's not always, you know,

everything we talked about here requires context. It's not always on those guys, but that's where the opposition has attacked them, and that'll be our number one key of the game. Spoiler alert. And then just how about some general balance from Miami offensively last in the league and rushing and some of that certainly has to do with playing catchup in so many games this year, but maybe some savan akhmed the passing game and utilizing what he offers as

a receiver. We saw same the same with that in terms of Miles Gaston a couple of weeks ago with a big game against Tampa Bay and for those guys to get going, Miami off pensive line versus lane of defensive line is a key matchup here. Dante Fowler is a guy you have to pay attention to, although he missed practice on Wednesday with a knee injury, but especially when he lines up to the offenses right side. That's where he's been most productive this season thirteen total pressures

and nine run stops from that spot. He's long, athletic and has a tremendous blend, blend, bend and flattened skill set to get on the upfield shoulder, turn that corner and get to your quarterback and really force him to get off that spot and step up in the pocket. And that's where you might meet Grady Jarrett, who's the guy that stirs the drink on that defense. He's next with eleven pressures on this team. Then there's a big drop off the most. The next most pressures is man,

these names are gonna kill me on this podcast. Here we go, uh Ottatonko, We're keeping a baby. He's got seven pressures, and then three players have six pressures. They've just really struggled to generate pressures this year in general. So I'll be curious to see how Miami attacks them.

Do you go more empty, fewer match protection calls and spread them out and test the depth of that secondary, or do you really try to ensure you keep two upright help on most on the most accomplished past putchers they have to offer there in Dante Fowler and Grady Jared. We saw Malcolm Brown last week a line up basically mugged up into the A gap like we see linebackers do on the other side offensively to just kind of get an extra body in there, and it was successful.

Maybe you do that with Grady Jared again this week. Either way, I would say you have to make sure you give those guys some attention Jarrett and Dante Fowler. As far as the Falcons defensive notes, the blitz rate is eighteenth highest in the National Football League. There seven point six a dot allowed or teams running average depth of targets seven point six is the twenty four fewest, so they play, you know, take underneath stuff. We're not

gonna get beat deep. They allow the eighth fewest yacht yards in the National Football League. They're a good tackling team, fourth fewest missed tackles in the NFL, and they're twenty one point one percent. Pressure rate is twenty nine. So again chicken and egg, like, do wanna really make sure you have your quarterback up right? Or do you want to spread out that offense or that defense rather and go after them in the secondary. On special teams d v O ranks, Atlanta's dead last thirty second d v

O A special teams Miami improved after last week. They're up twenty three now and young way Kup is seven for seven this year and ten for town extra points. He's off to a tremendous start after a fantastic season. And their punter, however, just forty five point five yards per punt. I do not know how to pronounce his name either, not even gonna try. But they alternate their return men and have average just six point seven yards per punt return this season, and they have an unusual

amount of kickoff returns fifteen total. That was surprising to me, and they average nineteen point two yards per return on those kickoffs. Maybe some opportunities there for Jason Sanders to pooch one and pin them deep. My three keys in the game continue to involve Mike get Sicky and the tight ends. We talked about the linebacker coverage in this game, the fact they play a lot of zones. Getting the ball out quick always a key to this offense. Stay

balanced and patient on offense. Take what they give you, take those under passes and try to soften it that way. Stay on the field, stay on schedule, dominate t op. That can go a long way towards victory, especially in the Miami heats still hot down here in October. Speaking of the heat, go heat to that baby season open. Let's go number three. Contain Pits, Ridley, and Patterson. If you can take out two of three of them, that's

a pretty big victory there. So that's the focus here, trying to make get a handle on those three players. The Dolphins will win this game if they clean up the mistakes offensively. The Falcons have played that ben but don't break style and it helps them limit explosive plays, but opposing offenses have taken the underneath stuff up and down the field to produce the thirty four thirty first

ranks scoring defense in the National Football League. But dropping passes, missing throws, missing lanes in the running game, penalties, those are the kind of things you can't do against a defense like this. It will severely hamper your ability to stay on schedule, staying sharp, and offensive success should follow if you do stay sharp. The Falcons will win if they get those weapons going. It's a pick your poison

type of deal here from Miami. But if they can't find a way to contain Kyle Pitts, Calvin Ridley, and Cordurel Patterson, not gonna be a good day for the Dolphins. So there you go. As far as Thursday Night football goes, we have another week of picks to make. Here. I'm taking the Broncos over the Browns. I don't want to do it, but I'm gonna do it anyway. I was

not prepared to make that pick. But without Baker Mayfield, without Kareem Hunt, without Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry's banged up, Odell Beckham's banged up both tackles are questionable to play. You know, Von Miller had a great comment pregame on his Tuesday media where he said, I don't know who's gonna play tackle against me. Whoever it is, I'm gonna kill him. I love. That was a great comment. So give me the Broncos, giving me Von Miller and go ahead and just start me. We'll have the rest of

the picks tomorrow. But another solid week coming into this one. I picked the Bengals to lose to the lines. That was dumb. I'll wear that one. I did not expect to lose the Monday night game. So ten and four brings us to sixty five and twenty nine on the season, just a hair under seventy. We're shooting for sev but on in the meantime, that's gonna be my time. Wall. Please be sure to subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts. Leave us a rating, leave us a review. You can

follow me on Twitter at Wingfield NFL. Follow the team at Miami Dolphins. Check out the fish Tank podcast. They had James McKnight this week. Also check out our postgame show on five six w q A M. One of the best things we do here on the podcast network I Believe and check out the YouTube channel for the media availabilities and of course Miami Dolphins dot com. Until next time, fits up in Caroline. You guessed it. Gutty's coming home.