Dolphins Bills Week 15 Preview

check your pulse if what is up? Dolphins And welcome to the Drivetime Podcast, part of the Miami Dolphins podcast network covering your team, your Miami Dolphins. How's it going everybody?

I am your host, Travis Wingfield. And on today's show, it's time for another preview edition of the DP pod for a game tomorrow, the shortest turnaround time we've had from preview podcast to game the entire season, Primetime in Buffalo for a huge a f C East clash in prime time nighttime cold snow, the only game on at the time. Look at the matchups, position by position through the tape and the stats will tell you what's at

stake with this week's game. The three keys to win the game and pick the Week fifteen contest around the National Football League from somewhere in South Florida. This is it feels this week like you probably don't need that much of an introduction a division opponent who, unlike the Bait Patriots, Patriots and Jets, haven't undergone a whole lot of change in recent years. The other two have seen their longtime quarterback depart and the other have a new

coaching staff in the last couple of years. But the Buffalo Bills have kind of become not just the stable force within the division, but the conference in the entire league. The Cliffs notes on Buffalo and how they got here

Sean McDermott and I almost said Billy Bean. Brandon Bean arrived at the exact same time start building a culture of tough, smart players with more of a focus on the some of the parts opposed to the star player by trading away some of their name talent for draft picks and getting Sean McDermott type of players in there. And that really began back in seventeen where they also

in that same process developed their own stars. And it began that year by remaking the secondary with Micah Hide, Jordan Poyer and tradabus White then team with Josh Allen with Stefon Diggs. This year they go out and they add Von Miller, who is out for the year, but you can argue it's the best roster in the National Football League when fully healthy. There's a reason they were these overwhelming Super Bowl favorites coming into the season. They

can beat you and they don't play well. They can vote ratio when they do, and they sure know how to play within the elements that they deal with almost on weekly basis, pretty much after Halloween up there in Buffalo. I don't think it needs much more set up than that. This is the team that, for all intents and purposes,

kept the Dolphins from championships in the nineties. Losing to Buffalo was the difference between making and missing the playoffs and a lot of those eight and eight, nine and seven type of years, and the odds hell, the two thousand two Ray Lucas game was the difference in playoffs and not we don't like them. They don't like us. They want to get Osha involved. Whether there's a game in South Florida. We have the heat, they have the snow.

It's a great rivalry that pits the two most polarizing towns in the National football against one another, and there's a good history of some bad blood here. I would say, let's go ahead and get into the matchup of Dolphins offense first, the Bill's defense and the quarterback of Miami and their offensive system versus the safeties of the Buffalo

Bills and their defense. And this is the most unique defense in the NFL in terms of their personnel deployment, and it's really built around the presence of one player sort of. Tehron Johnson is one of their best players, and calling him a nickel or slot cornerback is entirely disingenuous because he plays every snap and we'll cover his game in the Cornerbacks edition of this pod, but his name is required here because of this. They play the

nickel five point five percent of their snaps. They're a one package defense. Nothing else eclipses one point seven percent. That's their three four base look, which makes you wonder, makes you wonder about the running game because that's you go back over the tape. What's one thing that teams have been able to consistently do against the Buffalo Bills this year? Weekend and week out, it's run the football.

If you can go to two tight ends, if you can get a second full back into the game, obviously like Miami has, that's gonna put them a man down in terms of their box count in terms of guys that can compete with heavier personnel. But tarn Johnson has the ability to do that. So that's kind of why they feel comfortable in that. They also can get out to big leads and that allows me to play from, you know, a position where the nickel is the primary

package as teams throw a catch up on them. But the three or four base they run is one point seven percent. They do run a four, three or verse one percent at the time, so it's like a drop in the bucket and then one point two percent dime defense and a fraction of others. But as far as where they align with their safeties pre snap, that's changed a lot this year because of the injury to Micah Hyde, and so has the way they've deployed the safeties as

a result of that. More on that just a second, but single high coverage is forty three and a half percent too high as fifty three percent, and they've ran cover zero thirty plays this year. That's three point five percent of their defense. It's a good mix of man and zone. There was more man with Von Miller in the lineup. But I also wonder if Trey whitebus White starts to increase that again because he played a hundred snaps in a game for the first time last week.

Since one, they've also been on and off with rookie cornerback Kayer Elam, who's been a healthy scratch at times this year and given way in a platoon role with six round draft pick Christian Benford, who was on the I R. And I think ideally when they have White and Elam up to full speed together, they do become

a man coverage primary team. But I don't know if you can expect that in this game because it is still a little bit green, and because well Elam is not playing over the rest of the guys they have in that secondary on a week to week basis. But as always, you want to be prepared for both. So if it's man coverage, Mesh routes and rubs man, have

you seen Mesh one time this year? I think if they're gonna go man coverage, i'd love to see, you know, a combination of players that includes either Tyreek or Jalen or both of them. With mesh which is basically either side of the formation, and you cross right in front of the middle linebacker, right behind the middle linebacker and

create conflict for him. Might be a nice offset some of the r p oh look some of the play action game in terms of guys priest nap motion in one direction, I think you could get you know, some with with your priest nap motions and then run mesh in behind that linebacker and keep him conflicted in terms of well, I either I'm downhill or that deep you know, fifteen yard hook drop that we saw San Francisco and

l A have success with. But now if I'm contending with the potential run game of my eyes taking the candy into the backfield, if I get that deep drop and they're gonna mesh right in front of me, well, all of a sudden, that changes things. Then you can run things off of that. And I just really, I really have faith that this offensive staff is gonna come up with something to counter what could potentially be coming

to the pike as a sort of blueprint plan. Right everyone's talking about the teams throughout the last couple of weeks and if it goes back to more of that zone, that kind of inside triangle with or I should say triangle with inside leverage. You know some smash concepts where you have the outside receiver run like a hook or a little you know, in breaking route with the flag route in behind that. Some whips are jerk routes whatever you call those that I think I've heard it called

China inside to the outside. You know, you set up for the slant or for the little skinny post, put that foot in the ground, pivot back to the outside. It was basically West Welker's primary route his entire career. Speedouts, you know, five yards pressed the inside shoulder, breakback across the outside, and those flag routes back to the corner. So I think there's some opportunities from Miami here. We'll see if they can get to it. The weather might

have an impact on that. As far as the Buffalo defense, they blitz eight teen point eight percent of the time, which is the tenth lowest rate in the National Football League. But their pressure rates, and we talked about that in

the podcast every week. If you can get a higher pressure rate than your blitz percentage, then you're probably a pretty good pass rush and that pressure rate is twelve best in the NFL, and those numbers have fluctuated with the loss of von Miller because they're book see Moore and haven't generated as much pressure from their fore man fronts without him, but it's still a key piece to their defense with Gregory Rousseau a j F Banessa at all.

Over All, those guys are so damn good. They need pressure with the front four to really maximize what they do best in their system, which is a complex zone scheme that can man the can man match when it it's required certain formations, certain checks. They can disguise very well, and they have a bunch of guys who have played together for a super long time in that back end,

which gives you that smooth pattern matching. Not really many coverage bus They communicate well, and you heard head coach Mike McDaniel talked about how there just wasn't really any bus in the Chargers game, which is rare. I mean, I know NFL teams are supposed to be the cream of the crop, but they still happen on a weekly basis across the National Football League. Now as far as the blitz rate against the Dolphins last time around, and this is our first repeat opponent of the year, which

is crazy to me. In Week fifteen, most teams get two division games out of the way, usually by Halloween, but they only blitz to on ten percent of his dropbacks in that Week three victory for the Miami Dolphins in the sun and if you recall all he only had nineteen dropbacks in that game, so that meant just two bits of the entire time. If that's the plan again to what is gonna have to be sharp finding openings and attacking the opportunities against man coverage when they

are there. If the weather is bad in terms of the snow and the wind, you have to imagine the Bills probably want to clamp a little bit and see if Miami can win vertically because it's tougher to throw the ball for the on the field when there's bad weather, right, and they've shown their ability to do that this year, have the Dolphins. And you hit a couple of deep balls in this one. In any game, really it changes the entire complexion not just of the scoreboard, but also

the way the game unfolds from there. From a strategy and schematic standpoint. In that game back in the Hot Hot Sunshine that was so illegal two was three for three, last time, throwing the ball twenty plus yards down the field for nine three passing yards, including what served essentially as the game winner with that forty five yard dime to Jaitleen Waddle on third and twenty two. Like the last couple of teams we face, they are super athletic

at the linebacker position. And if if the Bills operate in the same style as the Niners and Chargers, where they deepen that hook's oone drop and don't really take much of the cheese on play action, than the Dolphins must get the running game going and have quick answers in the checkdown game. I was looking at some old Dolphins and Bills games. The last two times Miami one in Buffalo was eleven. They ran for two hundred yards

in both those games. J Ji and Reggie Bush the primary culprits there, and more on that in the running back section. Let's go ahead and cover the quarterback safety match up here real quick. In this portion it's different without Micah Hide, but Jordan Poyer is still They're doing great things every single week. He's one of the best players in the NFL. He's gonna make plays too. It has to be sharp. You have to identify him, not

lock onto a target and hold him. You have to really respect where Jordan Poyer is on a given play. He's got four more picks this year. That's pretty much run of the mill for him, four or five six picks a year, another handful of pass breakups and that's in just nine games for him played this year. Now he is playing the deep center field more often this year without Micah Hide back there, and that speaks to his versatility to basically change his role kind of like

Javon Holland has in some ways. And I think that limits the true strength of the defense with both of them and that they are virtually interchangeable. Because now in Hide's place is a very smart player in DeMar Hamlin, who's got twenty three pass rush reps two players ten And that's a bit of a flip from what you would see with high employers. So there you go. But you'll see Tomar Hamlin come down and insert himself in the running game. Eighteen run stops to Powyers ten and

on that third and twenty two. He was a big part of that play to have moved him out of that lane to create that throw. Do that again, that will be nice to see. All things told, we've seen to a. Continue to throw with confidence, and for me, that's my key for two in this game. Keep trusting the eyes. He's so good in that certain area of the field. Trust what you see, Trust the plan that Mike and the coaches have given you, and attack this defense the way you have all year long. Don't lose

that confidence, don't change who you are. You beat this team once, you can do it again. Wide receivers and tight ends against the Buffalo corners. We mentioned to Ron Johnson in the open one of the true Jeana pieces in the national football He's just so important. I imagine he'll match up with Tyreek and Jalen a lot, especially when they kick inside and back in Week three he only saw two targets against the two of them, and it made sense because you know they were short some

players in the secondary. Why attack the lone remaining starter they had in the line up back then. But he will key their disguises, He'll switch his role to line scrimmage, he'll rush, he'll enter it against the run, He'll blow up the screen. He's a great, great player in a secondary that has been banged up all year. He's leading them in coverage snaps by quite a big margin five hundred and twelve. The next one is four hundred and it's not that big. Seventy five. He has allowed just

fifty nine yards with twenty eight run stops. I'm sorry, five hundred ninety six yards. That six got cut off. There it is again with twenty eight run stops. Dane Jackson's on the other side at the cornerback position as Trey White. He missed last game, but he's back. He's been the starter when he's been healthy, and it's been five hundred and twenty five yards on four hundred and

seventy five coverage snaps, but two picks, nine pass breakups. Then, of course White, who's one of the most competitive players you'll find. He wants to play physical and challenge you. But he's so dang adept at falling off his man and winding up in a place that he's not supposed to be in to take the football away. I'm curious how comfortable he'd feel doing that given his limited work coming back from the injury, but a player of his caliber,

I'd never account him out for that. Now in terms of their movement to match the Miami speed and we look at the r S scorecards usually weekly here on this portion of the podcast. For Dane Jackson, and this is across the board, they're not like a super athletic bunch compared to you know, other NFL cornerbacks. I would never call an NFL player and not athletic, that's crazy.

But compared to their peers, Yeah, Dane Jackson less than fifty percentile and it's three cone, tense split, twenty split, forty yard dash, short shuttle, and his overall relative athletics score card. To me, this is the guy like, if you get one on one matchups here, go after him, especially with tenants seventeen tradevious White. The only stat that he's better than seventy percentile in is the forty yard dash He's sixty percentile and three cone and shuttle and

the broad and sixteenth percentile on the vertical jump. This is why I think Tyreek Hills the Bills killer. If that's how they want to play it, we need Tyree to have that, you know, ten for one fifty type of game and go win it for us, and Trey White is better to me suited playing guys like Davante Parker. Now to Ron Johnson, it's the same story. Forty percentile or lower and three cone shuttle, broad and vertical. To me, you candense things close to the quarterback and create easy

natural rubs against man. You force them to want to play inside that box if they want to press up and challenge the area, because it then creates more with on the outside, and you candense them pre snap and expand it post snap to open up those windows more so than you would previously because if they want to charge on that outside breaking route from their inside leverage, then that creates chances to make moves off of that or they just give it to you and you take

what's there and it can create some matchups I think are not as easily dictated pre snap. When you play from that condensed formation, we have their defense killed in overall speed and if it's a slippery track, that could potentially be beneficial for the Dolphins offense because the receiver knows what they're going right, get the ball out hot when after the catch, that's the route to victory for

me here, both at receiver and the running backs. We should get tons of touches in this game quickly in space, in the short areas of the field, and let's get some yack going on this offense. Really for the first time all year now, I'm really curious to see how they aligned priests now because again, teams have kind of shown you a way to slow this offense for the first time really since before TWA came back and I

leaned towards a zone heavy plan for them. I'm wondering if they'll change that and what they really do after. You know, we saw the reroute have effect last couple of weeks, but on the season, they play off sixty two percent of the time and they pressed thirty eight percent of the time, which is pretty common across the league. The biggest thing to me here is how do they defend Tyreek killed because they gave him all the attention of the world back in Week three and Waddle rose

to the occasion. But last year in the playoffs with the Chiefs, Tyreek caught eleven of twelve targets for a Buck, Fitty and a Tuddy. And if the attention does go back to ten, then you have to have a big day from seventeen and really all the guys like and I think you've seen Trent Sherfield's role expans since that

Week three game. So for him if he can win someone on one matchups, especially if he gets matched up on a linebacker or a safety, and they'll do that sometimes, whether it's sacrificing guys in the rush game or doubling or bracketing somebody else with their zones and you know, trail technique into this funnel zone. That could be a key matchup here to steal some first downs and yards. And like we say every week, it starts up front

in the trenches. Let's go ahead and take our first break and come back on the other side and get to the Dolphins offensive line versus the Buffalo Bill's defensive line. Dolphins and Bills preview Saturday night in Buffalo, December seventeenth. That's next Drivetime Podcast, your host Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation. Back here on a Friday on the Drivetime Podcast, previewing Dolphins at Bills from what is it called down New I don't even know the stadium

in Buffalo. H Yeah, let's pick it up back with the Dolphins offensive line versus the Bills defensive line. It's been a big area of contention in this rivalry in recent years and it's impacted you know, our quarterback with some injuries last couple of seasons, and how the Dolphins are able to you know, rally back this year year in that game after he exited for a little bit. But uh, this is kind of what they do is they put a big hurt on Mike White last week.

He was came out of that game and took a bunch of big shots and his questionable heading into this week. And it starts off the edge really with von Miller was the guy, but now it's kind of pivoted and they have more guys in that arena that can step up. Gregory Russo has taken a massive step forward with von Miller. You know, he had forty five pressures to lead the team. They were tough to stop and they still are with

without Von Miller. Um. But it's obviously impossible replays a talent like that guy, But you don't get it twisted. You still have to have your best and it sounds like Toron Arms that will play in the game which is gonna be a big key for Miami. Pressures and run stops among their edge defenders Rousseau thirty one and third team. He's got a great get off. You Hurricanes fans know all about him. Got a good arsenal of

pass rush moves. A j Eponessa was a five star freaking at Iowa with insane length and flexibility and played like every damn snap they played for the Hawkeyes, and he just had production on top of production. He's coming into his own twenty one pressures, eleven run stops for him. Y'all know about Shack Lawson seven team pressures and eleven

run stops. And then Carlos Boogie Basham length, strength, heavy hands, sixteen pass pressures and seven run stops for him this season among the interior, I think this is the strength of this football team. And I was talking about the interior when I wrote it down, really the edge and interior in general. When you consider the front seven, maybe just the entire front seven, because those linebackers as well, with Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Lano. But at Oliver, he's

a man. He could play anywhere from defensive tackle to off ball linebacker. And that was kind of what he did back at the at Houston, which made him a top you know five potential pick. And he winds up going I think it was nine to Buffalo, twenty six pressures, fourteen run stops. He is a menace man. He can beat you with length, he can kind of, you know, pin you and do a dipping rip and swim over the top of you and beat you with quickness. And

he can play off of your pads and redirect. He's just got He's got the entire arsenal Man de Kwon Jones is one of the most underrated players in football twenty six and sixteen for him, great numbers there. Jordan Phillips is gonna the game I had in my notes, but then I've learned later that he wasn't gonna play. Then Tim settled ten pressures and ten run stuffs all those guys. Man, you lose Phillips and Miller out of

those groups. But that's as good as it gets. You know, inside, our power and ability to stay on blocks will be tested. Oliver is a complete specimen that you have to basically account for with probably double teams throughout most of the game. That length and get off and counter move and spin move. He just he's really good man. He challenges in every way. And Connor Williams has been tremendous this year. Now Oliver didn't play back in Week three, so to me, this

is the biggest test of the season for Connor Williams. Inside, we know about Phillips. I wrote a whole thing on him, but we'll take him out of the notes. Settle is a great space eater. And then Da Kwon Jones is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. To me, he's there. Zach Seeler consistent, tough to move, makes a

splash player to every single game. And then off the edge, they certainly have a type here, heavy handed long pass rushers who can collapse the pocket by playing through you and kind of playing the run on the way to the quarterback. And they asked those guys up front to

do so much in terms of that. So for Miami, if they can keep those guys eyes occupied, or maybe execute some wham and trap and counter and things that get them, you know, taking lateral steps and following the outside zone, hit a big run off the outside, get some jet suite, maybe your reverse that gets them off balance like those are the types of things I think you're gonna have to do to get this defensive line, you know, not settled into the flow of the game,

because once they start kind of getting downhill on you,

they are tough to stop. And if you let them do that, it just opens up their coverage to really take the football away and be almost impossible to move the ball on without turning it over, you know, because they don't give up big plays and they keep you on the field and eventually you make a mistake and they turn you over to a has to be privy to this style of football and recognize the escape hatches are not always gonna be there for the scrambles probably

won't be like they were last week against that man coverage of the Chargers. We need to have our best efforts from everyone in a big game off the edge, from to Ron Armstead to handle Rousso hopefully Miami speed off the edges can help neutralize these guys a bit, which I think the running game is going to be critical this week as as well as you know the

short passing game too. But Connor Williams big test to run Armstead, big test, and you gotta have some one on one win somewhere, but just being able to consistently blow guys off the football and treading space in the running game. Other teams have done that, Ken Miami, it's a big key this week. We finished up on the offense here with the running backs versus linebackers, and sounds like Matt Mulona is going to play the game. He's

a legit defensive Player of the Year candidate. He keys everything and kind of is your disguise buster, as it were. He's a critical piece of that defense, especially against an offense that wants to create hesitation through the conflict defenders. We saw him jump on for a near pick six back in Week three and shut down his fair share of run plays. You gotta find Matt Mulona out there. Tremaine Edmonds has built like Fred Warren and that he's lengthy,

he's fast, and he's explosive. That's said, he's not as instinctive. So hopefully Miami can give him enough I candy and utilize alec ingold Enough, who you know has kind of grown his role in this offense and maybe this is kind of the game where he puts a stamp on the Dolphin's offense, if you can give him, you know, something to look at, maybe you can delay the traits that he offers a little bit. I'm so curious to see not just our plan, but there's like do they

sell out to defend those deep hook drops. If so, can we run the football or do they not? And if so, can we get back to just pumping the ball in behind those linebackers for chunk after chunk. Either way, I think the backs need a big game, both from the passing game and a ball carriers. We saw Miami get the run game going a little bit of times last week and then it just would kind of shut down and then all of a sudden second and nine second eleven. They need to be more consistent, more committed.

And we mentioned the minimal blitz is like see that and get out into the pattern and make yourself available to catch the football or if they come, help to buy that extra half second and find the holes left and coverage from the blitz. Big, big game, and I cannot wait to see either side's plan in this one. Let's go ahead and go to the other side with Dolphins defense versus the Bill's offense and the quarterback and offense versus the safety in the defense. Starting with their personnel.

A big change from years past, sixty eleven personnel nice from twelve personnel just four percent, twenty one personnel is fifteen percent, and twenty two personnel's three percent. And the reason I say a big change there, it's an interesting adaptation from Brian Dabal to Ken Dorsey and the complete absence of ten personnel. They haven't ran one four wide receivers set this year. That's one back, no tight ends,

and four receivers. That's a grouping that almost nobody in the league eclipses one percent because it's just not many teams have four receivers that can run out there all the time. But the last couple of years it was always that way for all but two teams, Cliff Kingsbury's Cardinals and the Buffalo Bills. But they're incorporating a fullback and kind of going the complete opposite direction now and

Dawson Knox is a big part of that too. That's kind of the counter to how teams have played the Bills this season and a big part of that, and it helps them get digs into one on one situations or you can get a double on him. Then you get mismatches on explosive running backs or Dawson Knox. It's a lot to deal with. Josh Allen's time to throw his two point eight two seconds, he holds the ball and looks to hunt for big play, So tackling him is always a key. Nobody really does it that well.

He has forty seven scrambles and that's where most the big plays in this offense comes from scrambles from Shallon or broken pockets where he throws deep. Now, how you want to defend him, Frankly, I have no idea, and I'll talk about that throughout this podcast. When he's been blitz this year, it's thirty percent of his dropbacks, he's fifty seven percent with a six point one y p

A and he has seven touchdowns and three picks. When he's not blitzed, that's sevent of the dropbacks, he's sixty seven percent completion, eight point two yards per tenth, nineteen touchdowns and eight picks. He's not ineffective against pressure whatsoever. He's eight point four yards per pass with nine touchdowns

and three picks, but just fifty completion. But that's always been Josh Allen you can win on first and second down and he can miss both of those throws even but then on third down he'll absorb, you know, a squared up shot from your linebacker, stay on his feet, break the pocket, have a guy hanging off his shoulder pads, and rip a forty yard dot to Stefon digs down the field right on his face mask. It's insane. He's

the best playmaker the sport has. And that's the book from his time at Wyoming right, he was always fun to watch just carry that offense despite drops and breakdown and protection, no run game, and they still found themselves like competing with much better Mountain West teams and he's just willing to kind of willing his way to big place to get points on the board. He's done it as a pro at times two and when he dials

it in, this offense is unstoppable. Now, he's had his slumps this year as well, even though he's taken his game to a different level in terms of taking what's there and playing the position. He's been more patient this year than a year's pass and reflected by a career low average depth of target. It's still nine point oh, which is super high, but he literally was eleven point five as a rookie, ten point three and twenty nineteen

and always in the high nine since then. His deep percentage throws twelve point eight percent of the throws go twenty plus yards down the field. They average fifteen point nine yards per pop with eight touchdowns and three picks. Remember, the last two teams we play never hit the deep shot per our preview, they just didn't do it. They both threw under ten percent of their balls deep and

y p A s under ten yards per pass. But this is a team that will force you to defend every single blade of artificial turf on Saturday Now, having watched a ton of Bills games all ease, but this year in particular, there's been bad weather. They're seemingly every home game for the last month, and that's how it should be Saturday night, and we've seen it impact Allen's accuracy at times. Like we said in the scouting report, there are throws he will miss. Every quarterback does, but

he's over the league average in that regard. He's fourth on PF and off target throws. But again, he's like Steph Curry and just needs one quarter to drop thirty points on you. My key here is this, nobody has thrown more picks or has more turnover worthy throws than Josh Allen. And again it's most of the time doesn't matter because they can make so much with the rest of the plays and drives they have in a given game. But we have seen them seemingly each week going back.

You must intercept the ball when you get the chance. Good offenses plus more opportunities equals disaster, right, simple formula we discussed here on the podcast talking about a good team in baseball can't give him four outs. That Week three game did not feature an interception, but that's not a script. I think you can count on with those two late stops, a clock that expires, a spiked fourth

down throwing the end zone. Rather, Jalen Phillips comes up with that tipped interception or Javon Holland when he jumps that route to the pylon, he makes the play and finishes the pick. We have to make those plays in this game to win this game. The Dolphins need to find some positives in the margins. And I'm not counting on special teams for that because we lose so many yards and special teams every single week, flipping the field with the key takeaway, this is the way. On the

topic of Javon Holland, he's often a catalyst. He does a great job of limiting opposing teams deep passing, inserts off the edge as a rusher and against the run. And I think this game is his biggest test, well since Week three, when you played one of the best and most impressive games by any player on this team all season. The ability of the Bills to get anything from any personnel, deep shots from twenty two, run game from ten, and everything in between. That's the modern style

offense that Javan has built their fend. It's a fun test for the snowman in frigid weathers. That part has me perplexed and the part I'll leave to coach Boyer. And I want to add a parenthetical here that Josh Bowyer solutions are the ones that matter in my podcast US is just one opinion and for fun discussions from some goofball here on the podcast. But the part that I really just throw my hands up with no idea. So like in the current NFL, blitzing top of the

line quarterbacks is instant death right. They'll find it, and they'll carve you up before you can even get pressured by finding the vacancy that you brought with that zone with that blitz. And we saw that back in week three when now granted it was sixty three pass attempts and seventy five dropbacks in total, so right in line with our thirty percent blitz, right, but it was seventeen of twenty two for two oh two and two touchdowns

against the blitz. That's that's really, really good. I'm gotta tell you that pretty par for the course what you get this quarterback, right, And I'm not saying you shouldn't have done that, because you can't just give him the same look over and over. But listen to this. Since week nine verse the blitz, he's thirty of fifty two. That's fifty percent with five yards per passing, no touchdowns.

That's not productive at all, And given the potential elements, speeding up the clock might be a good way to manufacture more of those misses we talked about earlier. I don't know something to think about, and I won't be once the format pressure package as the primary rush all season long. I laugh while saying I really don't know, man, because it's like you put the pros and cons up there, and there are plenty of both against this team. It's

a tough, tough decisions. While you pay the coaches the big books to come up with plans against the guy like this, Let's go ahead and take that last break and come back on the other side and talk about the rest of the Dolphins defense versus the Bill's offense. That's next Drivetime Podcast, your host, Travis Wingfield, brought to you by Auto Nation. It's a Friday here a preview edition of the Drivetime Podcast, and we pick it back up with the Bills receivers and tight ends versus the

corners of Miami. And I want to touch on something here, a bit of a breaking point. Personally, I don't think it's reparable reparable this season. I know there are a few accounts out there telling you that pressures and are meaningless stat and I'm here to tell you they should pay no mind to that, because the Dolphins pass rush has been really, really good this year. It's third in the NFL and past rush win rate per ESPN. There's

also a cool graph that's put together. It's a pff plot of rushers on an X access of expected average raw pass rush grade which is difficulty of assignment and grade over expectation on the Y access quality of pass rushing, and Phillips and Ingram are four and five in the grade over expectation among edge rushers, and Chubb is on the positive side in the top twenty player in that regard. He's cooled off a bit, but he's still up in

that area. All of this is to say the pass rush is really freaking good man, especially when you factor in Christian Wilkins checking in a fifteenth among the interior rush list. But the truth is that he's getting better and better. Stut number just keeps increasing the last couple of weeks. But because the back end hasn't been holding up, you're not seeing the impact of those pass rush wins, and it's going to be incumbent on the staff to find a way to mask that fact. I mean, Byron

Jones was always a massive loss. Then Nick need Hum Well, luckily we've got catered there to kind of fill that role a little bit. But Shrill Williams was the top backup for Byron Jones in my opinion, and then to lose Brandon Jones who create even more flexibility, and now Eric row in this game, who's gonna be out for the game. It's just the type of attrition you cannot expect to survive. You have to scheme around it. And the biggest impact we've seen is a dominant pass rush

that gets not a lot of payoff. This is probably the toughest matchup against this Bill's team because they are top heavy, they are deep, and they are diverse, and they match the play style of their quarterback. It's super intriguing because Alan holds the ball in big play hunts more than any quarterback in the league. But Miami has been getting home with pressure among the best teams in

the league. So does Alan follow Herbert's plan from last week and take those quick hitters and just eat up the short completions with the occasional deep shot built in, or does he play true to his style and bank on making rushers miss like he is wont to do. Stefon Diggs is one of the best receivers in the entire National Football League. There aren't many corners who can match up one on one and remove him from the game. Exhabing Howard probably came the closest earlier this season because

Diggs had seven for seventy four in that game. But again, if you consider just ten point six yards per catch on eleven targets, that's less than seven yards per target, a great number against the guy who averages over ten this season. And there was the one long play to open the game was twenty eight yards, so after that just six forty six fantastic. Now, he did get routes on six players, but only X saw more than one target.

They were three for five for forty seven yards throwing the ball against X, and one of those was that spike at the end of the half. To that feels like the play here to me in a game that you need your best to beat their best. But again, matchups like this are never one pcent of the game. So we saw Xavian Howard Chattle Mike Williams for a two percent of the game last week, and given all the injuries at corner, that might just be the best

bet there. But Buffalo is deep, man, So you need an answer for Gabe Davis, who offers size, tremendous field and an excellent route runner in terms of setting guys up with double moves and precise movement to get the action on that first move and then spring to the second level. And when Alan breaks the pocket, he loves to find both Digs and Davis getting vertical. So for him, I think Cater is the one that has brought the

most physicality all year long. Those seem like the right man matchups, but again it varies because there's also plenty of zone match and we'll see about all that. But plastering is the key this week. When he breaks the pocket, you have to plaster and get on your guy. Isaiah mackenzie does a lot of the creative stuff with jet sweeps and screens and catching the football and running on mesh routes and concepts. He's kind of a glue piece

and that nobody does what he can. The Chargers caught us on some rubs with pre stnap motion against our man look, so you can almost bank on the Bills doing similar stuff with McKenzie here. Then there's Dawson Knox and it might be you know it's not gonna be Eric roheos a tied any race for this week and low Elijah Campbell, So that's a matchup to really look at Clayton Federalum or I don't know how you handle with more guys than that, but uh, that's a big

matchup there. He's a productive, versatile tight end. I was hoping we'd have Eric row for we do not. It's a tall order. You're gonna have to You're gonna give up plays these guys. But I cannot emphasize enough the importance of capitalizing on plays that are there for you. And the recent Bills losses, that's been the difference really. The Browns alliones had them on the ropes and back to back games and some missed opportunities. To me, where

the difference in those games. But if you look at the Vikings and the Jets games or this year, two picks in both of those games and two losses for the Bills, So big matchup out their offensive line versus defensive line. Spoiler. One of the keys to the game will be finishing the potential splash players You create create negatives, and that always starts up front, doesn't it. The Dolphins passed for us, just really getting after it, but the

finishing element hasn't been there. It's hard to do that when the balls out in two and a half seconds. Quarterbacks are mitigating that by getting to the open guy early. But they've been relentless all year. Phillips has been tremendous, Wilkins has been so good, and my goodness, has he turned down the last couple of weeks a different level of play we haven't seen from him before. Ingram has been as efficient as anybody, and Chubb was bubbling up

towards a big game. You can kind of sense it with his ability to get by his man the arrival point. The quarterback just is not always married up on those particular plays, like he'll jump inside the quarterbacks booting against him. It's just hasn't worked out quite yet. They had Alan under constant darrest in that Week three game, and it just forced the ball out all game long. And at the end of it, it was too much for the

Bills to muster up more than seventeen offensive points. I mean, they scored nineteen total, But man, if you do that in this game, you have to get out of there with a win like you have to. And their offensive line pressure allowed and pass blocking snaps, it's pretty good across the board. Dawkins twenty four on five oh two, staffled on five seventy four. That's kind of the spot to look at there on the offensive line. Mitch Morris six. Ryan Bates is out for this game. We'll see who

they replace him with. Probably David Kessonberry. He's been twelve on just two hundreds. That's a kind of area to look out as well. And then Spencer Brown thirty five. The offensive line has been their achilles heel this year. It's we we have to beat them consistently with the injuries they've had, and that right side of the offensive line. Force Alan to move, hit him, turn him over, and just keep him uncomfortable. The Jets did it in both games. We have to do it here. Dawkins is one of

the best left tackles in football. He missed one game and some change and it was a noticeable difference without him on the field. Any wins you get against him or a bonus, but for a guy like Bradley Chub that's why you go out and get him big matchup this week. On the other side, Phillips has been so good and getting better all year long. Point blank is this. We need him to kick Spencer Brown's but you have to. He gave up seven pressures against the Jets last week.

Six in the game versus the Lions earlier and as well as in the game because the Vikings. We need that a seven pressure day, a two sack day from Phillips, maybe force a fumble. I think it's a big game for him. He made some plays back in that Week three game, but I think he's improved a lot since them.

So finishing with those sacks that near I n t he had make those plays and we could come out of this one victorious, and then Wilkins just winning regardless of who's across from him right now, Hopefully his pass rush wins pair with someone like JP or Melvin or Chubb or Gink getting home off the edge because Alan's

so damn good at making one man miss. If the Dolphins are going to slow the Bills, it'll be because to me, Phillips and Wilkins gave Brown and Keston Burry the replacement right guard all they could handle all game long. Our last position group running backs and linebackers, a position where the Bills are extremely multiple. James Cook is explosive as all get out, and Devin's singletary is just such a reliable option. They're both right around three yards average

after initial contact. Twenty five miss tackles force for Singletary fifteen for Cook. They're both dynamic in the passing game and good outlets when Alan gets that multiple rusher pressure that he looks at and can flip the ball up to those guys when they play patient get the ball to the backs in the passing game and run the ball effectively. Man, they are tough to stop and they shorten the game by doing so, so it's really tough

to beat them when they can do that. I've been so impressed by Jerome Baker playing both that stacked linebacker position off the ball, but also coming down off the edge and making an impact there in the running game to meet his speed out wide with Duke inside as a must against this offense and Ken Dorris, He's offense is creative, has false keys. It can pump the ball to any of the eligible so we need Jerome, Duke, Landon Roberts All to be firing on all cylinders here.

Special Teams d v l A ranks Miami's thirty second Buffaloes third Tyler bass is twenty nine, with the three misses coming from one apiece from fifty plus nine and under forty. He's missed one of his thirty eight p e t s and then Sam Martin averages forty two yards of gross with an inside the twenty yard line rate of thirty five percent and a touchback rate of fIF Jason Sanders hit his first fifty yard of the season on Sunday night. That's great to see. He looks

really good lately. Eighteen twenty two and more stads gross is forty point three with an inside the twenty yard line rate of thirty eight percent and a touchback rate of just four what's at stake here? Any hope when the division starts to win this football game control our own destiny is now gone that that's a foreign concept. If Miami wins, they'll still need help to capture the a f C East crown. Now that's hardly possible, but winning this game is no small task, so we'll see

about that after the conclusion. Moreover, there's a chance the Dolphins are on the outside looking at the conclusion of this game if they lose, and that's a tough pill to swallow when you were competing for the one seed just three weeks ago. If the Jets and Patriots get wins and the Dolphins lose, they'll be back in that in the hunt column with the Jets home for the Lions and Patriots home for the Raiders. I think confidence could be just as big as securing a win in

the win lost column here with a positive result. To go into a place that you have struggled to work le just one win sinceleven the last playoff year in Christmas Eve, to stop the streak, to win a cold weather game against a team that has had your number at least prior to the September game, and put a race for the division back on over the final three weeks.

To me, that would mean everything. Right, All this, you know, sick to your stomach feeling you've had the last couple of weeks, I think goes away social media being unbearable to me personally and about you guys. Uh, that goes away a little bit for a week at least. Then you get to come home for a long week and welcome a team who's currently five and eight in the Packers. The win, the confidence, the standings impact. It's a huge game, not to mention another chance in prime time to show

what you're all about to the entire country. As for the playoff, odds numbers we introduced last week, let's go ahead and update that. With a win, Miami's playoff odds increased to eighties six p six percent chance and a chance to win the division. With a loss, sixty playoff chances in less than one percent to win the division. It's a big game. My expectations honestly, like uh, I do think Miami is gonna win the last three games the year, and the playoff odds in that scenario are

nine eight percent. So regardless, it's not the end of the world. I know we all want to feel better, but a loss and I think it's fair to reevaluate your expectations as to what would the Dolphins do in the postseason. Back after a three game slide with without our quarterback, my expectation was the five seed and hopefully a trip to the a f C South winning the playoffs.

That's kind of my new hope and expectation. Win or lose this game, get that five seed and get the a f C South game on the road in the postseason. The three keys of the game convert quarterback pressures into sacks and negative players you cannot miss when they have the opportunities have to make the most of it. Number two a big game for the running backs, both to run the football against the defense that plays exclusively almost nickel defense and doesn't want to bring the linebackers up.

Against this vaunted middle of the field passing game. Run the ball opens up everything else, especially in the weather, and the number three prevent pressure against four man rushes. If they bring four, we have to keep two upright. It's the biggest key of the game to me. Week fifteen picks, once again we are asking for your faith on the Thursday night football pick. Hopefully I earned that last week with the loss thanks to the heroics of Baker Mayfield, which I thought was awesome. How do you

not feel great for Baker Mayfield after that game? But in Week fourteen, that loss made US nine and four one forty two and sixty five and two on the season. That's sixty eight point five percent. I'm taking the Niners over the Seahawks. Probably not a surprised there. Give me the Vikings over the Colts, the Ravens over the Browns. That's a tough one to pick. I don't have a ton of faith in the Ravens right now, but Cleveland can't do anything like that new quarterback. They've got Buffalo

over Miami. I'm sorry, that's your Saturday night games. Uh, Philly over Chicago. On Sunday, the Jets over the Lions. That's the toughest one for me to pick this week. I'm taking the Jets because Jared Goff has struggled in the cold, you know, historically, and I think the Lions had a very big emotional win the Jets let down game on Sunday. I think tent things tend to kind of correct themselves after that. Pittsburgh over Carolina, Casey over Houston.

Give me the Saints over the Falcons. Give me the Cowboys over the Jaguars, the Broncos of the Cardinals, Las Vegas over New England. Don't feel confident in that one. I'll take the Titans over the Chargers. Don't feel confident in that one at all. Give me the Bengals over the Bucks. Give me the Giants over the Commanders, and the Packers over the Rams. I'm gonna go ahead and get out of here because Carolina is screaming her head off right now. My wife is currently playing zone defense

against the two kids. In the meantime, you all Please be sure to subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcast, leave us a rating, and leave us a review. Follow me on Twitter at Wingfield NFL. Follow the team at Miami Dolphins. Check out The Fish Tank with Seth and Juice the postgame show as well. Check out Miami Dolphins dot com, the YouTube channel for media availabilities and Dolphins Today Caroline and Camera and Daddy's coming upstairs for right now