“AI 2027” — Top Superforecaster's Imminent Doom Scenario
Episode description
AI 2027, a bombshell new paper by the AI Futures Project, is a highly plausible scenario of the next few years of AI progress. I like this paper so much that I made a whole episode about it.
00:00 Overview of AI 2027
05:13 2025: Stumbling Agents
16:23 2026: Advanced Agents
21:49 2027: The Intelligence Explosion
29:13 AI's Initial Exploits and OpenBrain's Secrecy
30:41 Agent-3 and the Rise of Superhuman Engineering
37:05 The Creation and Deception of Agent-5
44:56 The Race Scenario: Humanity's Downfall
48:58 The Slowdown Scenario: A Glimmer of Hope
53:49 Final Thoughts
Show Notes
The website: https://ai-2027.com
Scott Alexander’s blog: https://astralcodexten.com
Daniel Kokotajlo’s previous predictions from 2021 about 2026: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-2026-looks-like
Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! https://www.youtube.com/@lethal-intelligence
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