TMDM everyone. It is the show without faroque and OSF. Today I have brought in two. I would say exceptional. Jesus Christ, it is loud. Faroke literally shouts the hell out of this team at the start. Yeah, I brought in two incredible guests to fill in for OSF and Faroque. Today. It's a slightly different show. I brought in Cows, who's been on this show a few times before. He's one of the Co founders of Canary. Labs.
Morning. Morning. And Spencer well known for being well one of the best NFC traders in the market right now and now I don't know also does some Co hosting of of morning radio shows. So I thought you'd be you'd be perfect for it. Good to have you both. Thanks for having me.
Good to see you. I you know, you said I I I really fixated on you said one of the best NFT traders right now because you know you guys are the original best NFT traders and back in the day there's no way I could compete. But now that you've moved on to shit coins and all sorts of other stuff, you know you've retired from that mantle and you're happy to pass it along. Is that was that? Was that the energy I was picking up on here?
Maybe. Maybe I think you you you definitely dabble in a few different things. Let's be honest, the funds, the fund seems to be doing a bit more than just NFTSI think you're going to, you're going to surpass us at some stage, who knows. And I think it's a good thing to have it because it's been, we haven't had the show for the last couple of days. We left and everything was doing OK and then it seemingly got a little bit worse over the last 48 hours.
Definitely not a great market to open up with today. Maybe we can just go through what we think, what we think the, the fun things are happening. Obviously meme coins, NFTS, airdrops, lots of stuff still happening over the last 48 hours and you know a little bit of red. I still think we're going to come out of it the other side, but we're going to go in how we
normally do this show. So we're going to go through the kind of the top five main things that's been going on going on in the market and then we'll then we'll go from there. The, I think the first thing to say is just how weak the market's been. Like this is probably the weakest, weakest a few days that we've seen for months really right. Like I don't think I can really remember the period where it's slightly. It felt like we have that fear back.
I was seeing today that Bitcoin has been up for seven consecutive straight months. And I think this is the first time where it's felt like oh you know it could we could take a little bit of a dip. How you two both feeling about it? I mean, look like, I think that like obviously price is going down, right. I think we saw some fear this weekend, but it's also kind of
healthy. And I think like one thing that is really a tough mind shift for a lot of people on CT is like CT has no impact on the narrative anymore on Bitcoin. Like it didn't at towards the end of last cycle, right. We saw institutions come in then, like all the institutions left during the bear market. And it's suddenly, like CT hadn't mattered again. But like now, like, like there is a game being played that you are not Privy to, right?
And like, I mean that as in, like you as in the listener. But you as in us as well as, like nobody in crypto is playing the level of a game that like the real players that have stepped in are playing, right? And I think one thing that I wonder is like what degree of what we see going on right now is like true retail outflows, right? So obviously we had inflow, inflow, inflow, inflow, big outflow, right? But like is this? There's two ways I think you can view it.
First is, is like Bitcoin went down in price. Did people who needed some of their retirement account into Bitcoin get scared and are pulling it out or did someone very smartly like put a bunch of Bitcoin? Like if I if I was a big institution and I with the ETF coming right and I have managed an institution but not like a a trillions of dollars asset manager, right.
It feels very tempting to have put a bunch of money into the ETF and then waited till there was this whatever, lots of hyper on big inflows, shorted it and then just pulled a bunch out like that. Seems like a really obvious trade. So it's what we'll have to see, right? Is like, I could see a world where it's just like whenever Bitcoin goes up, there's inflows, whenever Bitcoin goes down, there's outflows. Like that seems reasonable to me based on like the assumption
that it is retail driven. I could also see a world where we see like shenanigans that make almost no sense unless you assume there's one very large actor like doing them right. I don't think we've conclusively figured out which of those two it is. And I I'm curious what you guys might think would be indicators to look at, but it's just not obvious to me at all what's going on at the level of the
ETFs, right. My view has just been like, obviously the Bitcoin ETF has been that bullish and so like, I'm mostly like we're at a point in that arc where I just don't know what's going on, right? And I don't think it's easy to derive what's going on. Whereas like a big, a more interesting like bet you can make is like will there be an Etherium ETF? Is an interesting bet. Yeah. Look, I think I agree with you.
It feels like we get the, we get the information delayed like the the, the price moves and then we find out there's been an outflow. So you can you always kind of play and catch up with the ETF data from a from a day-to-day basis. It does feel as though the real thing that's happened is that the the greyscale outflows have picked up again. Interestingly, Genesis looks like they settled with Gemini to pay customers.
A lot of people have said again they had a big CBTC position here and that's caused a lot of the the outflows in order to pay that settlement and that may again slow. I think Eric Balkunis who's like the main Bloomberg analyst was pointing to that the Black Rock inflows had slowed but then they did pick up again decently again yesterday. So I don't know if it was necessarily anything more than just this could be temporary. He the the back the Bloomberg
analyst seemed to point to that. But this is definitely something to be aware of like I think it's very, very difficult to to I don't know predict this market but if these outflows continue I think we could go, you could still go a decent amount lower. You are seeing like more stable coins being minted like the stable coin supply is like up only at this stage. So there's clearly money coming in which isn't just the the ETFs but this has definitely been the main narrative at least for the
last two months. So I'd I'd definitely be be aware of that. I don't think we're going to like crash down, but but I yeah and obviously we have the halving in just in just a few weeks which I think could lead to more institutional inflows ahead of that. But it's yeah, it's it's definitely a difficult one to predict and I agree with you, it's maybe not even one that you want to predict too much because you're always going to be behind the time. It's better to play for, for
other things. What do you think, Ben, like how you see in the market right now? I think I agree with both of you. You're always like the guys who are actually trading these flows, have the info 1st and either hedge it or take the other side of it. So you're always playing catch up. But similarly I don't I think that narrative is like done like the narrative of everybody just waiting for that inflow number and then it trading up or down. I feel like that's I feel like
we're moving past that. I think interactive will start to form around the halving around like some form of supply crisis for Bitcoin. And yeah, once, especially once minus selling has slowed down. I think that you know there needs to be this new narrative. We can't focus on what was the narrative of the past like 3 months for the for the rest of
the year. So I think people should be like looking to the next thing rather than like focusing on the thing that's happening right now, IE like oh today was inflow, today was outflow, etcetera. I think the it's this happens in any financial market like the people with the most volume.
The reason the more volume you get, the more information you get about who's buying and selling and that's kind of the the benefit and some of the payment of being a market maker because then you're more informed and you can take better positions and just know where the market's going in real time. And then everybody else is acting on a delay of, you know if you're super, super connected, you're acting on a
delay of like 10 minutes. And if you're only log into your Coinbase world today, it's a delay of like whatever 12 hours. So and everybody is on at a different point on that spectrum. But I think what's smarter is, yeah, to look forward rather than like in that 12 hour delay and think what's what's happening next. I do think harbouring is strong narrative. I don't know whether that outperformed or underperformed
expectations to be honest. Everybody has got that like four cycle chart of what happens around the harbouring every time and it feels like a kind of consensus view. But it's hard to argue with like the numbers around if demand is there, which is helped by these ETFs, and supply does dwindle, then everybody knows what happens. Yeah, I agree with you. The halving is kind of a known, known, and I don't really like those overly simplistic graphs.
It's like, oh, it happened if this is what happened last halving. So it's going to happen this time when your data set is whatever it is, like four or five times, like it's not really that there. Wasn't an ETF like there wasn't this thing that creates also like and this is anything too is is like like you know info outflow you guys talk about, but like it's all just GBTC unwinding right? Like, like there there's a couple of moments where there's other outflows.
And I think those are really interesting because like, at least for me, right? Like, like, I don't know about you guys, but like, I own some of these ETFs in like, a Roth IRA that just, like, it's an easier way to buy them, right? And that's not a thing that I look at. And I think like, that's the bold thesis, right? Is like what is the bold thesis of an ETF is like, yeah people are literally just not going to look at these accounts, right.
That's why it's such I think a big fear monger thing when there is outflows cause it's like whoa whoa, then if that's not the thing that's going on like what's the thing that's going on? And so like again like I would look at on that graph that you had up before Mando, like what are the couple of red that is not GBTC, right? Like GBTC is just an unwinding of a bankruptcy thing. Like this is not really related to the performance of it. And so I I kind of agree with your point.
Like this shouldn't matter, but it like does like, why? Why is it that we care so much about, like, clearly the market's reacting these things. And and, you know, it's just like, it's a weird, weird thing. And then, you know, we look at the, the, the habiting coming up. Obviously, this is a big narrative. I think the question is what is the narrative after the happening? Right. And I can see two. I can see one really strong one.
It's like if we don't see the big dip after the habiting as we had in the past, it's like that is a proof point that there's a big structural change. Yeah. So we have this. So we have like literally no outflows from. When these all buying, it's just different levels of inflows really. Yeah, yeah. And you see like BTCL like has one red day of 10 million, right? Like, I'm curious what that is like that's something to look
at, right? Like what are the red days and the others and there's there's not many, right? And so if you just think of this as like, OK, like the GBTC outflows like matter now, but like this is a fixed amount of like what could outflow, right? Like there is not in the same way a fixed amount of what could inflow if you assume the inflows are legitimately like retirement accounts, right? Like retirement accounts. Like, you might think, oh, like
GBTC has all this money, right? But like at the end of the day retirement accounts have unlimited amounts of money relative to whatever grayscale held at any point in the past. Like, these are not the amount that you can outflow from grayscale is orders of magnitude less than the amount that you can inflow from retirement accounts. Yeah, I think that's something to actually pick up on. People will getting worried about how big this is. They've already lost I think about 60% of their AUM.
So this is definitely going to be a slightly slowing or diminishing. You would assume this would be diminishing and it had been diminishing for a while. It just then picked up because of this because of this Genesee Genesis bankruptcy agreement with with Gemini. So I think it's it's just something that you're going to
have to accept. I agree with you we we do kind of need to search for a new narrative and I I, I I wondered what that is. It felt like Solana being used as was a narrative and I think will continue to be a medium term narrative here. The ETF, interestingly the ETF, we didn't have a show the last couple of days, but the picture for ETF has has become a little bit more cloudy I would say for for that we were already a little bit downbeat on that that the possibility of that happening.
But there was reports, kind of unsurprising reports that the SEC is going to try and subpoena a bunch of different companies in the in the ecosystem and trying to label ether basically as a security. I don't really know what that means medium term. I think a lot of people you know Ganz has been smashed around in the courts so far.
So it does seem slightly surprising that he's going to try and go for it again, but he he may just be playing for time here just before you know, the next election. I would be unsurprised if that if that was the case. But ETH actually hasn't performed that badly since then. It's it's kind of been the outperformer out of ETH in Solana, so I don't really know. Like maybe that? Was poor, poor performance. And the court's probably helping ETH. Everyone's like, oh wow, he's
taking ETH the court. Well, we're going to win that. So it's probably like an upside risk if anything. Yeah, I mean you, you just gotta look at it, right? Like in like, it's gonna be something that plays out. There's gonna be drama around it. It's never gonna be linear. I think the people got super bearish this weekend suddenly. But like, I don't we and crypto are like, oh, Solana has all this volume, all this attention,
right? But like, the orders of magnitude of Solana attention is like, it's retail attention, right? Solana has this big challenge of having been named in the Ripple lawsuit. Like, how does it come back from that? Like, is that a big enough bear? I think that's a bigger barrier to an ETF. Like, I don't think we see people talking about it. Also, like, I feel people forget, like ETFs have been filed, like this is a thing
that's in motion, right? Like, and also like ETFs almost never get rejected anyway, as we saw with the Bitcoin thing, like everyone was talking about, like, it just seems so obvious to me. It's like really they're going to like, psyop you into thinking this isn't going to happen again. Like everyone who was like, oh, will the Bitcoin ETF not happen? Like, like, no, it can happen. Like they they they never miss. They never get these things rejected. Like why would why in the world
would the ET1 happen? And like maybe it goes up and down, But like to me that is the strongest narrative after the Bitcoin ETF narrative. And like especially with how things have already played out, like I would be shocked to see people like like the the the thing that's been solved now is when Bitcoin ETF happened, everyone was like is this going to be a real narrative? Are there really going to be inflows, all this stuff, right. And like the answer is just
unequivocally yes. Like there are significant meaningful inflows. There's meaningful buy pressure on Bitcoin from the ETF. Like, I don't think that that's a question that you can really debate anymore. It's like this happened, like it, it exists, right. And so now when you look at ETF, it's no longer a double edged sword of like will it be approved and will it matter if it's approved? It matters for sure. Right now the question is just will it be approved, right.
And so I think we're even in a less uncertain place than we were before on Bitcoin. I don't think it will be approved at the next, the next approval, but I do think it will be probably one of these cases where it gets rejected but under a temporary. So it'll be sort of sort of like this, like it will be resolved, resolved via some sort of court case relatively quickly or at least over the next year. And then we will probably get any PTF at some stage.
And so I don't necessarily think it's a, it'll be a bearish rejection. I feel it'll be one of these ones where you'll get a headline like ETTF said to be rejected and then the reason will be pretty flimsy or easily fought in a in a court of law and and then and then people will really just see that as a path to it being accepted. Very similar to like what happened with Bitcoin, right.
Everyone was waiting on the grayscale decision and then the like a lot of the rally actually happened kind of H2 last year, right, Just got on the expectation that it was going to, it was going to happen. So I think we probably could get a scenario scenario like that. But I agree with you like it's it's if that does happen I think it's got a very good chance of of getting one in the medium term.
The other interesting one that people got bullish about over the last 24 hours was was Doge. Like Coinbase went to list Doge with the CFTC right for Futures Trading and people were like, well this could be a path to DOGE ETF. Do you think a DOGE ETF could come before the ETF? It's not unreasonable, right? Like, like like Doge doesn't have staking is the thing that works for it, right? Like when you actually see this with meme coins, right? This is the whole slot of meme coins.
Things like meme coins are easier to list on exchanges because they don't have people behind them. There is an execution risk. They like all these other things, right? So like you see, CEX is listing DOGE, like, like, like meme coins much more aggressively than anything else. And like, that's not random. Like, there's a reason behind that. It's because they're easier to list. They have less risk of being security. Like, maybe the ETF world also starts listing, you know, DOGE,
right? But genuine question here, Mando Do you think if there was a DOGE ETF, is DOGE the ultimate beneficiary of that? Or would other meme coins? Now they see a path to being listed like is with the ultimate beneficiary of a DOGE ETF. Yeah, I I when I saw that headline, I do think that that meme coins in general would would rally. But I agree with you. I mean, I think we're quite way away from a DOGE ETF.
But I would agree with you that the path for a lot of these meme coins may be simpler than a lot of L ones, for example, in terms of being classed as a commodity or a security. Like, it's very difficult to say that there's like a team behind Doge who are like working to make it better. Like it's just, I don't think it would pass many of the security rules. And obviously it's also like a
fork of Bitcoin, right? So it has a slightly cleaner cleaner path there in terms of like proof of stake versus proof of work. So yeah, I I think you could get a DOGE ETF. I genuinely do. I I I don't know if it would be the next one. I think a lot of people spoke about maybe you'll get a Ripple ETF because they actually like basically won their court case but who wants a Ripple ETF, let's be honest.
So I do think yeah you this one or ETF would be the most interesting for me as as like the ones next. Do we think they're important though the smaller ones like I feel like the ETF is going to be so the ETF is to Bitcoin ETF as silver ETF is to gold ETF like gold ETF is fucking huge.
Silver ETF is like a total market cap is like a 20th of the size and nobody really says well some people do but very few people be like oh I'm in the precious metal trades for the for inflation hedge and you know I'm equally or I'm like market cap weighted to gold, silver blah blah blah blah blah platinum etcetera etcetera. Do you think, like I kind of think that all of these things are just going to be non events
in a way? They I I agree that the I think even the ETF analysts have been like yeah it's going to be ETH is going to have a much smaller demand. I mean the ETH futures ETFs have been much smaller as a as like a traded asset class than than the Bitcoin futures ones as well. So I agree with you it's it's diminishing, but it also just sets it up for the future more than anything like you're you're also accounting for like future demand here I think a little bit. So what?
Does that mean? What does that mean exactly? Right now the people who manage your pension funds are are probably boomers, but like OK, like within time you could very easily see, you know, these become more of an asset class even for traditional finance. And with these rails in place, it allows that to happen a lot easier I think.
And also like you got to think what are the most common and big products in the financial industry, right, Are like and they're increasingly like passively managed index funds, right. And so once you have like a Bitcoin ETH and DOGE, like I, I imagine you then have a Bitcoin ETH DOGE product that has like weighted shares across those
ETFs. And like, like I think one of the things, no, but I generally think this is a meaningful thing is like you see how, how are financial institutions going to package these products to their customers, right. And I think a lot of the times you're in a package it as like you in your diversified portfolio of everything which we've picked. Right. Like should have some weighted crypto basket, right.
And they really like to say weighted crypto basket even though it's probably going to be mostly Bitcoin, right. And like the the idea that they are doing some sort of like wizardry and math that has selected for you the perfect basket of exposure is like the thing they're pitching you on, which obviously anyone who like knows anything knows is not the case. Like why is it that like you have SMP weighted the way you do in most of the SMP exposure that
like a bank will give you? It's just like they have chosen this right? And so and and you're like, oh like if you can sit down and have the guy be like just buy Bitcoin, right? Like OK, whatever. You can go figure that on your own. But the bank's like, Oh no, we have all this knowledge. We're picking and choosing the best, most performing, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And really they're just spot buying at a certain percentage.
And like we all know that's just like, you know, don't look at the man behind the curtain kind of thing. But I think like giving them more products to push from like financial advisors could be a really interesting outcome here. Yeah, they're all driven by fees. I agree with that. Like they'll find a way to get AUM for the ETF if they're going to get fees from it. So it's. Probably what the silver, the silver got, the guys who owned silver mines said.
They're like, yeah, man, our ETF is going to be big for the future. You might be like I I I agree with you to a certain extent, like. The whole thing will grow, but like, it'll be like Highlander. There can only be one. Like Bitcoin is the daddy and it's going to take like gross amount of market share and all of the other ones it will be. I just don't know if they'll be like price, like it won't drive the price in the same way that the ETF narrative has on Bitcoin.
Or or it might not. I think, I think that's fair. I think that's the thing that is fair. The other thing that we had over the last 24 hours was was kind of a lot of positive centre around Coinbase. The first one was this BlackRock fund, which is which has been launched on on ETH. I think that was a partnership with Coinbase there. Now Blackrock's now got its own stable coin. Guys like you can invest, it has
yield. I think they're investing in Treasuries on the other end, which is kind of a weird because it came out on the same day that Gensler was basically going after ETH as a security. Blackrock's just launching a fund on ETH and then we had a bit of a base season which which seemingly lasted for about 24 hours and then and then all kind of died. Like what do you, what do you think about Bass as a the memes? I have to say the memes are they're kind of mid as as a like a meme.
Like I think it's like Brett is the main meme. They're not even really memes. They're just like names. It was a great tweet, which is like the memes on on bass literally look like they've been developed by like an office full of like 40 year old boomers like on purpose and you're just like, yeah, that that hits home. That hits the. I think like with base, right? Like I mean I I'm just optimistic about like what the role of base is in the ecosystem. But like it's exactly that.
I think it's like on the nose, right. It's like yes, we are a bunch of like boomers who got together and like we are doing the boomer thing for you. And like so much of what is happening that is positive for crypto is due to Coinbase like being the champion of crypto in the regulatory world that like I I will take mid memes if it's exceptional to me is that like it is mid for the same reason that Coinbase is winning the lawsuits so like.
The same lawyers probably thinking up the fucking ring. Yeah, yeah, dude. I agree with everything you said, but I think you should never settle for anything less than absolute excellence when it comes to memes. But there you go. I have to say, if Brett gets to like multiple billions or different, like what have we done here? Like, like memes are very hard
to do on purpose. I feel like if you're like, holy shit, people are making a ton of money on memes, let's make one in the 20 in the next 24 hours and make a ton of money. Like, that's just not a good business model. Like memes kind of erupt organically and because something happens out there that the community rallies around. But it's it's just, it feels like the type of thing that the harder you try, the worse you are. And I feel like we're at that stage of the meme coin cycle.
We're like, we're very much like buyer beware, I think, of any of these things because someone's trying to take your money. Oh yeah, for sure. I mean, I agree with what I agree with that sentiment. I do feel as though the memes on Solana, they just go through new matters. Like every day there's like 5 different ones a day, whereas
some of the other coins are. It is a bit more like stable, like oh, you buy the first old coin of the of the original owner and that's what it is. Like Solana, it's like there's a new thing each week. There's been some rogue ones over the last 48 hours. But it's it's definitely feels like we we go we speed run through different messes I. Feel like even Solana though, like, I mean, I guess Boehm was a later one that felt like it was a little bit more in the OK,
let's create a meme coin stage. But even the like, I feel like the stuff that has a potential to show longevity is still like bonk and whiff and like, yeah, maybe bums in there, but the stuff that kind of happened a bit early on, you know, when it was still uncertain. Yeah, yeah. I even saw that the Avalanche is going to be paying $1 million to LP's for its for its meme coin. Avalanche is going pretty deep in trying to get meme coins on its on its ecosystem.
I don't know if this is going to work but. I do want to go back to one thing though, because I have been more bearish on this on this EDTF and it sounds like Spencer is still giga bullish and the person who is going to make the decision appears to be waging war against it. Like and that to me feels like I I don't know.
I'm like we've just had this massive rally on the back of like potential ETF influence and the person who is going to be making the decision is current like in the process of waging war. Like I feel like that's one side and it sounds like Spencer's view here is that what BlackRock has never submitted an application that got rejected. So this will get accepted and I feel like I'm not sure how those they don't feel necessarily contradictory, but I don't know.
I I I've like kind of I I I have been surprised. I was surprised that EVE got back to 3500 in the face of what felt like pretty damn bearish news against the single bull case that has been really driving that asset for for the past three months. It had, it had to be fair and I think Spencer I think would even agree like this is a non consensus view. It is consensus now that it's
not going to happen. I think Poly market has like 2030% chance, chance of it happening, but a lot of it, a lot of the price it had underperformed for a while right like Sol ETH moved unbelievably just as that that those predictions started to nose dive right and then once it now I don't know let me check Poly market now on the ETF but I imagine it's it's probably even lower than that right now. I think that's a good bet at that level.
I like that price on Polymarket. Probably, but like this this is the thing too. Is is like 22? Percent chance that they're predicting it right now. By May. By May. By May 31st. Which is the OK? Bad bet. Bad bet. But like this is The thing is like, I think that we're talking about different things here. Like one view of mine is that I think there will for sure in the next like several units of time we're talking like one to four year time horizon be an ETF
right now. The contrarian view and I don't think that that's super contrarian, right. The contrarian view is more like when not if it's going to happen. And I think like the contrarian view of I think it is actually pretty imminent is like not super unreasonable but also not like 100% view, right. I just think that, like, it is healthier for that to not be priced in, like the opportunity for there to be a strong rally because everyone thought it wasn't going to happen, right?
Like one thing that I know about politics and one thing that I think is true of like seeing about people who are in politics who are involved in government is like you kind of have to take what they say with a grain of salt a lot of time. Because often times like they're doing it for one reason or another. They want to look like they deliberated hard about it or they want to look like they're tough on something before it goes through. Like, you don't actually know, right?
Like like Genzer was super anti Bitcoin, right, Like for a period of time and then was the swing vote to like make it happen. So I don't think like it. I guess Sam what you're an empty stats. What you're saying is like, like, I I I like, oh, he's super bearish, like he's gonna fight it hard. I mean, a, he hasn't won a single fight he's gotten into recently, so bullish. B Like, maybe he's just saying stuff I don't know, like. I don't think he's gonna win.
I don't think he was ever that bearish on Bitcoin though. I like, I like, I just don't remember his terminology and and like the wars he was fighting leveling against like what he's doing right now against Heath. Like I don't remember what you're talking about. If you're saying he was really bearish on Bitcoin, certainly not in like the year running up to the ETF. And I'm not saying he's going to win. I'm just saying he doesn't seem like the guy who's going to vote yes.
So I agree. What I agree with Spencer here is it's I think it's a when not if. I think, I think this is going to happen. It's more when my view is it doesn't happen in in May and there is some posturing into probably into the election. But after that I just I think they'll probably lose another couple of cases here and it's just going to be like a a complete disaster for him. It is interesting that that there is some incentive here like Grayscale obviously wanted
to fight. I mean Bitcoin ECF went through because of Grayscale right. They they actually fought in the courts and they won won that ruling. I wonder who will be the one that fights the SEC here like who takes them to court. Will it be BlackRock or will it be because Grayscale's you know Grayscale's going through a world right now like it's it's it's you know losing all its funds and and Genesis going through bankruptcy and DCGS. You know Barry's about to go into jail like it's it's a
disaster over there. So who is the one that takes them to court over this? If it does get rejected, I think it's. I don't think it matters. I honestly don't think it matters. All that matters is that BlackRock and Larry Fink are like the biggest donor to the Democrats, or like one of the biggest. Whatever he wants to happen will happen. Like, that's how American politics works, isn't it? Basically, you don't have to play the play. Do you think it does happen?
Or I'm a big maybe not by May, but like, it doesn't matter who's takes it to court. It doesn't matter. Like Gary takes his orders from somebody and that somebody is funded by Larry Fink. But some people have said that they think that they will they they can fight it because no one is there to like basically take them to court. Who, who someone? Basically I think someone in the ETH ETH community will probably have to like fund this court case themselves in some sort of way.
Whereas before with Jenna, with you know DCG, it made a lot of sense. They had like 20 billion plus Bitcoin and they wanted to convert it to an ETF. It made a lot of sense. There was no one with that in crazed economic incentive to actually take the SEC to court here. So that is one thing that does does have to be resolved like who is that person? Who is going to. And I'm not saying it won't
happen. I'm just I'm just interested to see who it's actually going to be like somebody's going to come in and and basically be like hey yeah, we're going to, we're going to take you to court, take you to court. And I don't, I don't think it's going to be BlackRock. I don't think it's going to be one of like the main trad fire ETF providers and I don't think it's going to be grayscale.
So it's going to have to be somebody kind of rogue here coming in and and decided to take, take, take them to court on this, which I think I think is going to be interesting. Is the view that the Ethereum Foundation won't be that person or entity or? Well, the Ethereum Foundation I I feel like it shouldn't be them. I don't know if it should be them like like. I I don't what is the trial that they're waging? And is that you have declared us a security or you have not given
us an ETF and we deserve one? What is the trial? That's the thing, like the ETH is not asking for this ETF, it's the ETF providers that are asking for the ETF. So it's it'll have to be basically an ETF provider who is incentivised enough to want to to to do this. And then I don't know if the ETH foundation should be the one, like funding that or not like it. It just seems, it seems like an like, I don't know, someone's going to have to resolve that, someone's going to do that.
I agree, right. Like like like the the part of the argument here is that ETH is not super centralized, right. And the existence of the Ethereum Foundation is like the counter argument to that. So if the entity that is funding it is the thing that you're trying to argue is not the centralized thing. Like I probably shouldn't, no couldn't fund it through like shadowier means. Yeah. But like who's in the face of it is kind of your point. I know, Amanda, what about you?
What would you would you take the SEC to court for us? You're going to be our champion. Take all your meme coin money, take that good wreck guy funds and just plow it into, you know, the good fight with Gary. Yeah we're taking up dog with hat profits to take on Gary. I think it should be like I think it should be DC investor. I think that guy just lives and breathes the ETF every single day he needs to he needs to come
in and and rally some troops. But yeah maybe ARK maybe ARK would do it like if they were funded in the by the right person maybe they'd take him to court like I can imagine them that them being them more like crypto specific but this is you know it's not just going to court this is a bit of a war like VCG basically really pissed off the SEC when it when it did it. So if you're going to it's not going to be BlackRock or like I don't know Franklin Templeton
that does this. It's going to be someone a little bit random, I think, who who decides to to take the court next? It can be like when Peter Thiel financed the Hulk Hogan lawsuit to get back at Gawkin. News like doesn't have to be the person who's incentivised. I was thinking the same thing. Yeah, it's exactly the same as that. It. Is anyway. So yeah, it's been weird. Ethan's been bouncing even after that headline. And I guess Solana, Solana activity is still really high,
less money. It feels like being made, that's for certain. A lot of pre sales have just Insta zeroed and I don't know there's there's blood on the streets in certain in certain places there but there's still still unbelievable volumes going through. So and the only real other story in in I would say crypto broadly Phantom which is kind of a bit of an OG L1 big in the Defy space. Andre Cornier who like mounted that chain is kind of a Defy God.
He he's come back with Sonic upgrade which is like a paralyzed DVM. Extra way to chart like I don't know it's just a new way to scale Etherium. You've heard it here before and that's going to be the big thing that people are getting bullish on. That's been the best performing coin other than a meme coin over the last month. It's it's up quite a lot it's I think it tested new highs or phantom but a a bunch of different a bunch of different crypto Twitter heads decided to
get get together. It felt like the the real cabal and decided the Phantom's going to be the coin that everyone gets behind. So that's been the one that I think people have been paying attention to, but other than that it's been a bit of a not been that great for for for altcoins. I would say in general most most things are down we can move on to. The wallet, right? What did you say? The. Phantom the wallet, right? No, no, no, no. FANTOM Phantom Phantom is.
Betray my boomerness. Yeah. To be fair, like this is kind of it. It had a lot of TBR like back in 2021 and loads of people were were like farming on it and then it kind of kind of just went to zero basically like no one did anything. And then they've kind of come back with a with a story not dissimilar to what we've seen with like say or Monab where it's like a just a new L1 with a way to scale Etherium.
And that one's definitely been the best performing L1 ever since kind of Solana slowed down a little bit that's that's taken up. NFTS has been slightly different. Obviously we continue to hit all time highs in every single ordinals pretty much every single day. You have brief dips for about I don't know 24 or 48 hours and the new AirDrop hits and everyone everyone gets another Stimmi.
And I think we've hit all time highs in in puppets and in monkeys quantum cats, every single one of the top collections is hitting all time high. I know you've you've pay attention to this a lot stats. Sam. What what do you what do you think of this space right now? You said you were going to buy a dip in all of these collections. Did you actually end up buying any of these dips or did they just? Run away. I'm never talking about dying
buying dips. I thought you said you were going to buy some of the dips in ordinals and then and then like ago months. Ago buying dips is like is code, man. No one buys dips. People sell dips. They just say they're going to buy dips, which is code for I don't have the guts to buy current prices. Yeah, no. Buying dips is is an illusion. But no, no, look I think like the narrative. It's just, I think it's got enough of a narrative that it can sustain attention for a fair
bit of time right now, you know? And I think that, yeah, I personally like NTS. I like Jpegs. I think these are NTS. It's just it's just it's a better narrative right now because the ETH ecosystem aside from you know pudgies or azuki when people start talking about coins it's like those those those NFTS will pump but other than that like the ETH ecosystems just constantly has you know weights on its ankles. Soul is a little bit harder to
get behind. But I think that the Bitcoin narrative just makes it it. It has some, it has some state power, it has some real whales who really like it. And as you said, the fact that more stuff gets dropped to these guys is people build out more kind of defy infrastructure on coordinals. It just means that they're actually dividend paying assets. So I personally don't own many. I'm not that. I just haven't bought a lot of stuff overall recently, but I I do.
I I do remember like when I was at East Denver, like every time I checked my phone, like no monkeys would went up like another .1 Bitcoin. So I I did tweet about them a fair bit back then because it was one of those times where I was like on the airplane and was like about to buy one. And then I realized like every NFT I've ever bought on an airplane goes straight down. Because the fact that I'm buying it on an airplane means that I have a ton of FOMO, which means
it's like peaking. So I was like, I can't buy it on an airplane. And of course, because I didn't, it like, doubled in two days. I saw your tweet the other day, actually I think it was yesterday which was showing the the rally in the in the large cap NFT, which I I thought was pretty hilarious like. Massive massive rally. It has been pain out there, like look at that, that rally that we saw over the last 24 hours that everyone said. Yeah, I think. I think that.
Was when Pudgy's was at like Elevens and now they're at 14, so it might be a bigger rally, but. Yeah, yeah. Right. This is the start of the year. Oh no, that's the start of last year. That's the start of 23. Yeah. So if you start at 100 there, you're down about 60% on on that.
I mean it was a a nice pop and there obviously been certain collections which have which have bucked the the trend here but that is there's a wild wild graph but then you bring up DJNS and and like I look at ordinals and it is like seven days in ordinals, 30 years in ordinals runestone up 150%, no monkeys up
50%, puppets up 70%. Ordinals had OMB had that massive mint R60 even up like everything is up 50 to 100% here like it is. They're really, it's just trading on its own, in its own universe, it feels like.
Yeah this feels kind of like Ethan if he's felt when you had like a a couple crown winners, like there's kind of like board apes and Azuki and moon birds and doodles and like there was like a moment where it all just kind of rose together and there was a sentiment that this was a long lasting narrative. And I feel like that's happening right now in Bitcoin.
It's like these are the early crown winners and this is a story that people that has longevity and you know there are a lot of ETH guys that haven't moved over yet. I personally think it's more ETH guys buying I I kind of divide the world more into JPEG. Non JPEG people than Bitcoin.
You need people. And I think that you know, I don't think you have a ton of people who are like I hated crypto punks, but I love, but I love ordinals because these jpegs aren't Bitcoin. I think you're more like either pro pro JPEG or anti JPEG and it's just more are people from ETH transitioning over there than anything else. But you know, it feels like you know, these FOMO processes are gradual, you know, and you bring a few more people over.
So it was a bit of a stimmy over the last 24 hours which was this Dimension AirDrop. You must have got some of that Spencer this another AirDrop for Purgy Penguins. This was that Nim right? Not Dimension's the prior AirDrop. Right. Yeah, yeah. Nim. Nim the an AI gaming app. Like, what is this? I didn't even look into this new Everyone made some money and. Everyone was happy. No, I don't think the coin is
actually out yet, right? I think everyone was just claiming and got a bunch of Nim candily. I don't know much about it. I also didn't know much about dim either and I got a lot of that one. So got a bunch of it. But yeah I don't know it's it's kind of interesting to see right. Like the a lot of like I'm actually was starting to think through like I I should put together a chart of like what is the what is the value of pudgy plus all the air drops.
Right. We actually see like, like dim, despite me not knowing much about it and probably because I didn't know much about it, has actually been performing like quite well, especially for people who like staked it and stuff. And so, you know, you see some pretty legitimate like air drops happening. And I think that led a lot to the rise of the price of pudgies like yesterday, right? Yeah, yeah, that was, that was part of the reason I think people knew, knew that was
coming obviously. And I was speaking to actually to Luca in in France about this and we were, we were just talking about you know like the the future of all projects. And I was like you're in such a good place. People just keep giving you free money like you don't need to like you should just keep doing what you're doing like do everything to like the you know you're crushing out on the to your products business and the community building and the memes
and all that sort of stuff. You don't necessarily need to run because with these top projects it now particularly in the bull market, you just get loads of free stuff like this is how many you're gonna get. Layer zero as well with the with the pudgies, right and there's. I mean, it hasn't been confirmed, but like, I would be shocked if we didn't, right? Yeah, I think the three, the three for me that seem obvious are layer 0, bear a chain and ZK sink, right? And like. Yeah, yeah.
That's the other. One, those three alone are pretty. That's, that's that's that's nothing like that's that's nothing small, right. Like like dimension alone was like, I mean it was like 8 or $10,000 a pudgy. Yeah, it's crazy.
That is crazy. And then you don't have to also have the burden of like eight coin right now where it's just like it is a burden for the whole community at the same time, like everyone made money, but it would be doing great if we just made money and then you didn't have to like, you know, build a Dow and then worry about how the funds are being spent and all this sort of stuff. Like let other people create the coins and just give them to your community for free.
And that's kind of, I mean that's the dream scenario, right? I was saying and he was like, yeah, I I think I agree like if you can organise this sort of stuff, it's it's kind of wild. The other, the other big community to benefit from this was the was the parallel community, which is. I mean, this token's been on an absolute tear. It's one's crazy to me.
A lot of people saying this could go you know it is a $2 billion fully dailed market cap it's it started just a few months ago was at was at 2 right in September. I remember Sobi, I mean this this was kind of around last cycle so oh interesting. I thought it was around earlier than that but I think it definitely was people are saying this could this could go to like 100 like this this this thing that that it's kind of a mixture right now because they have some
it's obviously a tabletop game. I know you're big in that world Spencer, but the idea is that they also have some AI components of the game or and they're also going to do like an AI AirDrop move to Solana. People getting very very, very bullish on this as the one out of them all that could that could do well. What's your What's your view on
this, Spencer? I think this is very interesting because it scratches an itch of specific narratives Like they've done a very good job branding this where you're like, I don't really know what this is, but like gaming and like I don't know what this is, but like AI, right? And like that's a bullish thesis if I don't know what this is. But it seems like an index play on AI. Like, I mean call a spade a spade.
A lot of the like trend followers who got it or who are a lot of the crypto crowd like got AI, you know focused or whatever. And so crypto plus AI to me feels like a stronger narrative this cycle than like real estate plus AI was last cycle. Where or is it real estate plus crypto where like you had virtual metaverse land doing super well for no other. Where if you thought about it at all, you're like this makes no sense.
But if you didn't think about it importantly and you're like oh land lots of value in like real estate. Oh crypto lots of value in real estate in crypto right. Like crypto real estate makes lots of sense. I think that's this meta like is like AI plus crypto, Wow like game plus crypto, Wow game plus AI plus crypto. Very good, right? However, like how is the game very good like? Yeah. Does it matter? Spencer Just a left curve dude.
Don't even don't even inch towards like being in the in the in the middle here. I just feel like the more you think in this market, like the more you are setting yourself back when it comes to a lot of the stuff that pumps. I I agree with that this is the thing in crypto. You realise it only really matters in a bear market if there are players and until that point I think we can run this thing. I own zero of this token. You can buy it on Coinbase. I think it was a Coinbase, like
a Coinbase Ventures crypto. And I don't know. I just feel as though AI plus gaming and they're going to give you like, I think they give you another coin, right? Like if you stake your prime you're going to get their AI coin. That just feels like something that that throw away the fundamentals book this could this could go pretty high like I saw this yesterday with Reddit, right? Like Reddit launched and within about 5 minutes everyone was like, this is an AI stock and it
went up 50%. Like because they're selling their data, you know, to some of the AI companies, they're like, oh, this is actually this is actually an AI company Reddit. One of my favourite stories. I think it was on this show that OSF said that Xai or XAI was bumping because they had AI in the taker. Zai, zai, zai. Got the AI pump for a for for a while there. So yeah. So we're doing great stuff as well. But yeah it is. I have all the stuff in gaming. Let me just bring up the the
gaming space right now. You know it hasn't been an amazing period for for a lot of these over the last seven days. Primes higher again. Most, most things. Most things lower. But Prime seems to be the one that's that that continues out of these. I don't know about a lot of these stories now like IMAX is more like AL Two play beam a lot of I like that for a long time. It's now run up to 2 billion. They need to like produce some games. Obviously I'm a big fan of zai.
We're we're like we're an invest in that. Dude, how is sandbox still on this list? I want to. Know the the one thing I always see on sandbox is another big. They have huge unlocks every single week. Like it is wild. The unlocks. Because I think the the like, I just. I don't know who buys that. Like who who's playing in the sandbox these days. Wow. Look at that for a chart though. Still like top 15 of all NFTS because there's so much supply and they still cost 500 bucks each.
Darla's the one that always gets me, man. Like that is that is a monster of us of a of a decrease in these. I don't know obviously they do you know they they sponsor a lot of stuff in the space and they do a lot of a lot of different things. But I agree with you that it doesn't some of those older gaming coins I just don't know how they come back. They may I mean actually he's done an OK job with it.
Ronan's been a good play so far as like the chain play of of of AXI and they had the pixels game which came back pretty strong. But a lot of the the other ones from the past cycle that you know you can just tell they they ain't going to come back anytime soon. I think that was that was largely it for for for for for for today's show.
It does feel as though I don't know we bounced back slightly looks like we've we're we're now at 30 sorry 64 K nearly on Bitcoin. Things not looking as terrible. I think today hopefully we get a little bit of a better better weekend and yeah we've bounced kind of across the board so these are not going imminently to 0. Hopefully that we have an ETF inflow today but look guys I super appreciate you you filling in. I actually think this is better than a normal show normally like
I'm Joe OS FS not saying a word. Everyone everyone everyone everyone contributed I liked I liked today's show I really really liked it And yeah we will we will see you again on Monday. Yeah. Thanks a lot guys.