Yo-yo, yo-yo, what's up? What's up? Good morning. Good morning. GMG Deep Friday January 5th, 2024 Four 4/20/24 baby Woo. Wow. Already one week into this new year, it's officially been one year since I had my last drink. Thank you. Thank you. Obviously just kidding here. Alright, that didn't land with my boys. I but I think Ovie was too was too distracted by by Gemini being in the audience right now. You know, we got some requests for you Gemini intern.
We got some requests for you for sure. Know my shit coins? I mean, like, OK, wait, which ones? Which? Which one? What do we what are we chilling Gemini today on the show? Not just kidding, of course. That is definitely not what we're here to do today. It is a beautiful day to have a beautiful day today. You know I love my Friday because I love my Shabbat candles. You know, it is -20° outside in Montreal, Canada, where I'm tuning in from, but it is warm
and cosy inside. Let me tell you that I got my co-host in the house. OSPF Mando. How are you guys doing today? Good. How you doing? I'm vibing I'm very excited. I I'm very excited. I can feel it. You know I can feel it coming. You know what I mean? Like it's it's about to happen. You know I'm I'm feeling it in my bones. You know like it's it's like I I'd go as far as saying as my my my boss tingling. I think you used to tweet that out often. Ovi. You used to say something like
that right. Balls tingling. And she just like tweet that out very often and before the market were ripped in 2021 that was like your thing. So I, you know, I'm old enough to remember that, but uh, but look, it, it looks like we're getting closer every day, right? Look, there's only four businesses. There's only four business days left until we get to. We go to 12 K so. Just one one week straight down. Ohh. Which? Yeah. OK And then one week back up to
all time high, right. Anyways, we're not gonna, we're not gonna we're gonna front run the topics today. We're gonna talk about that later. Amanda, how you doing today? I'm doing good, man. I'm doing good, Mark. It's not so great today, but but doing good. We just set it up. We we just sit on our hands. I made a promise to Ovi. I'm gonna try and fulfil that promise. And we just, we just sit, we just sit on our hands and we let the market happen. That's all we're gonna do today.
But I can definitely feel it like it's one of those mornings where like I'm just like, you know that that scene in Wolf of Wall Street where during, like that restaurant. Hmm, hmm. Come on over. Ohh, come on over. I don't. I don't like, I don't like early, early. This is manifestation. This is. Ohh, I'm not stopping until you do it. I'm too superstitious. I just like to go about my day and hope, quietly hope something.
Happens. We got crypto slam in the audience going like the fists in the air. So you know they're doing it behind their screens. I wanna see everybody's fist in the air, everybody in the audience. I want to see fist emojis. Today could be a big day and worst case is going to be Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, but the ETF's are definitely coming soon. With that let's talk about today's topics today on the show today today, Market report
updates and moves as usual. Let's see what is going on in the world of crypto. Seems like everybody's just flat waiting on the ETF announcement and see when that's gonna happen. Speaking of ETF announcement, we are super, super, super excited to host Eric Bakunas today who is going to be joining us at 11:00 AM Eastern Standard Time. So in 22 minutes a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg in for the
last 24 years. So we're talking to like I mean that was over that that told me that but we're like talking to the ETF Don here we're talking to the father of ETF analyst and I'm still here excited for this show.
We called DM them on the show on Wednesday like really live on air and and it happened so shout to everybody counts for accepting to come and degenerate formal hour show which is gonna be super fun and talk to all the crypto Bros and sisters in the audience So that's going to be a good one so be on 11 we have a bunch of questions ready for him should be really good topic. Quick NFT check in what's happened in the world's we saw Logan Paul's buyback Crypto Zoo programme that obviously made a
lot of noise. We saw Jack Butcher we mentioned yesterday. Is he going to do? It's not gonna do it. Right after the show Boom announced that the single check holder is gonna be able to claim an ordinal up to 250 and then lost Robbie sale 150th. Like who doesn't like a nice, you know, slab ham for $400,000? I mean come on. And then and then of course we'll be joined by by by Eric and we'll be going into a really good conversation around all things ETF for everyone.
As usual this show is powered by Ledger so make sure you follow at for more on all platforms FOMO, HR and by the way we are live on X video and YouTube, Rugby, this YouTube and on here Chapter 300 people that are already on here video with us. We love y'all. Let's get this party started. Who is the man, Michael? Daddy. Can you dig it? Yet GM everyone, I think it's it's probably right to say just give it a little bit of macro
view. It hasn't been a great start to the year like across the board bond stocks have all gone down quite a lot, definitely not been not been a very strong period. I think stocks are going to have their actually it's the first losing week in like 10 weeks, but it's definitely not been good. And also the bond markets definitely sold off US 10 year went back back above 4% briefly.
Part of that is just a little bit of an unwinding in in sentiment and when the Fed is going to drop rates, people are increasingly thinking that can be pushed out slightly further. So we're now in this sort of backdrop of macro assets not trading as well. Crypto today again didn't really have that great day. What you've seen is a rise in Bitcoin dominance, really like kind of since the start of the year, Bitcoin dominance has started to edge back higher than
today. It felt like that that really came to the forefront. Bitcoin is still hanging out kind of where it was yesterday. So 43.7 when we were doing the show is around this sort of level as well. Briefly went up to 45 I think and then kind of went all the way down to like 42 1/2 in a week as well. So little bit of, I don't know changing sentiment around the ETF, it's it's still difficult for me and I think this is something that Obi even tweeted earlier to work out what is
priced in and what isn't. It feels like within crypto circles everyone assumed this is 100% going to happen and yet all the public polls I see seem to indicate that that broader sentiment has is kind of unaware that this is happening or or or I know doesn't believe it's going to happen. So I saw today something like only 38% of traditional finance investment advisors think that the ETF is going to happen or like the Twitter polls, I seem to put very high numbers from
the fact that it won't happen. So this I don't know like I feel as though that's if this gets approved maybe there will be a bit of a bind just because it's being discounted. You've definitely seen a reduction in risk appetite across the board. Um the funding rates have all come well, they've stayed low. The premium on Bitcoin in particular across various different exchanges and for UH for the future spot premium has gone down to basically 0.
So it's it's a cleaner environment there from a risk taking perspective. I would be surprised if we saw any big sell the news event here just because of how much that's come down, but it could it could still happen. But yeah also Alton and yeah anything that's not going have definitely come down. You saw some of the, the the really talked about stuff recently so like say was all the way up $0.87 and now it's back at like 72.
Solanas obviously backed down at 98, it was at 106107 yesterday and obviously peaked at like 120 something men's ethos all the way all the way back down to to to basically just just north of 2200. So that kind of puts you in an environment of of how things are feeling. It's just a little bit soggy out there. A lot of different narratives are taking a breather, whether it's meme coins or ones even the Yeah, paralysed, Paralysed L2 or Parallel Parallel lines. Size, right?
L2's the only the only stuff that I think has has stayed relatively strong is is Tia which is the which is the the Celestia that the the data operability scaling solution which is kind of hit towards its all time high. And then Arbitrium is seeing this huge volumes going through its Defi ecosystem that again touched I think 2:00 it's hanging in and around that level it's definitely feels stronger
than some of the others. So that's still just shy of to do and there's a lot of talk about the ecosystem, let's say various different plays whether it's liquid staking derivatives or what's going to happen with we staking with each each layer or Eigen layer, whatever you want to call it. And yeah some of the of the of the other two which are seeing huge volumes. So I would say yeah, ecosystem feels strong. Other than that everything's
taken a breather. Slash is is looking pretty precarious to me. OK. OK. Yeah. I mean, it feels like, I know we're talking to chefs in a minute, so I don't want to go over it now. So we don't like lose time on that. But like it seems like everyone just waiting, right? Like it seems like everyone's just waiting for it to happen.
From what I've seen, you know, obviously follow a tonne of people on the spot in the space and the consensus amongst like all these like traders and what it's like, just like everybody's out of leverage. Everybody's waiting to see what's gonna happen. I saw this tweet from from Andrew Kang I believe yesterday. Yes. Well at midnight, yeah. So yesterday saying that he believes downside risk is muted to roughly 10% around ETF launch while upside risk is sidelined in 100%.
Over the next 12 months, marked by PTSD from CME futures launch and Coinbase IPO, Crypto native traders are cautiously positioned with funding flat and BT CEO. I open interest at annual lows with five hundred $700 million of committed seed funding that needs direct that that needs to directly buy Bitcoin after approval and the biggest sales marketing campaign will ever see. There's no need to be fancy here.
So I think this is like a good sort of like Greek, like TLDR of like the situation, which obviously seems like the rest of the corns are just, you know, waiting on big Papa Bitcoin to make a move. You know, it's kind of like your move now, right? Whatever, whatever Bitcoin decides seems like the rest of the market will follow here.
Also regarding what you were talking about Mando on the theorem out two narrative here, there was a headline that I picked up from your minutes theory to total value locked. TVL hits $21 billion which is a new all time high which is which is quite impressive when it comes when it comes to a theorem
and its ecosystem. So there's a lot waiting to to to happen on the on this front and the other news that we had on the on the token side on the coin side with Celsius also a theorem news here too on stake $466 million million Ethereum holdings and to ensure ample liquidity in their words for for for creditors. So obviously, you know, we're still waiting for for the Celsius repayments and also and also for for you know obviously so within the FTX stuff.
But we got not so great news I think last week that they were paying people based on the price of Bitcoin ETH and Solana from when they crashed which was 16 K. 1200. That's the plan, right? Which kind of sucks, but what else? What? What can we do at this point? So that's really like the big headlines, Ovi, did we not get a figure? Were we not waiting on a certain figure that you were mentioning
or? Yeah. We have payrolls today which actually came in high payrolls came in at like 215,000 I think versus consensus of 177. So that's a pretty big beat. Again, what does that mean? It means as less pressure for the Fed to cut interest rates because it shows that the economy is still strong. It shows that maybe inflation could still be a problem. Like the cause of that was definitely wage inflation is kind of weird. Actually.
Interest rates like spiked a lot higher when that number came out. They've actually now rallied back like 10 year. When was that like 4.8%? Now it's like 3.96%. So that's been like a 5 to 10 basis point whipsaw in in 10 years. I don't know what's happened in between. When I checked the number now, because interest rates are actually rallying, I would expect the other interests rallying stocks are up. You would have expected the opposite. So maybe it's positioning. I don't know. Maybe.
Bloomberg ran a story yesterday which was that some guy put on like one of the biggest short bond trades ever in the auction market going into payrolls. So I think, I think there was a lot of just like there was a lot of like shorting I think ahead of it. So maybe this is a bit of positioning that that number I think is unequivocally bad for bonds. So yeah, I think it's. More you know exactly. You know exactly what happened. Number came out, the guy just gunned it all up.
It was like, yeah, one last lap, I'm calling it here. Everyone's like and then he gets the sales guys like Ohh, yeah, like been chatting to BlackRock and they're really bearish interest rates. So where are you now? You're like, ohh, why that's why the is that two ways like yeah, it's like yours. Oh my God, it's. Like that, but yeah. It's gonna be it's it's gonna be it's gonna be interesting you guys are talking about about
about traffic and all that. There's also another headline that I that I that we picked up on Mando which is March banking crisis rerun risks 40% Bitcoin price crash per Arthur Hayes. So Arthur is pretty much claiming here that Bitcoin dipping 20% would be healthy but up to 40% as possible depending on liquidity condition per the former Bit MEX CEO.
What do you think here? So he's he's saying as of March, So he says he thinks this is the guy calling for $1 million Bitcoin, or I think it was 100K, definitely 100 plus. So he's not bearish on Bitcoin. Yahtzee. Bullish and he's he's specifically mentioned March because of that's after that the the halving and also after
obviously the ETF. So he's mentioned that he's always had this view for a long, long time that it I guess his view is more like some of the other bitcoiners view that you know the world is heading to a banking crisis, sovereign crisis
XYZ. Remember he was always talking about Yellen last year and and just like the collapse of the banking system around this time last year when when you saw like SB and all those all those Silicon Valley banks start to go down like First Republic. So he his view is that that is still going to be the case Now is that is that still the case Banking stocks have bounced back slightly but the balance sheets still look pretty precarious to me.
Deposits have have have been rapidly leading banks particularly small banks in the US So there is still always an outside chance that that you see a banking crisis. The the big difference between now and this time last year is that rates are a lot tighter, sorry a lot lower.
What does that mean? It means that like the we always talking about unrealized losses on bank balance sheets just by the nature of the fact that that interest rates have come lower, some of those losses have have started to to be less aggressive. So I don't know if I see a world where where we go to a banking crisis, you kind of need higher rates, much higher rates to really start seeing stress I think or serious stress again in the in the banking system.
And remember, the Fed has got that already got that huge huge facility where people are borrowing hundreds of millions in liquidity to help deal with that already. So I don't know. I don't like, do I think, do I think there's gonna be a banking crisis by March? I'm a I'm a seller of that view. OK, OK well we'll see what
happens. I may remember I wouldn't be surprised if we get some like major dip at some point on all crypto markets that we in 21 like we did he got that and it was remember Bitcoin lady dropped like 50% after running I think it was April and then same for Ethereum had it's it's like
a like a collapse. I remember even like the the major like media mainstream media like calling for the death of the theremin NFT's like it was April and then we had the biggest summer ever with like a $4 billion uh month volume on NFT's alone on the back of those articles like that was wild. I'll I'll never forget. I wouldn't be surprised to get
something similar here. There was something else that I wanted to bring up here is we got another ETF commercial this time from hashtags and you know I love playing my TF commercials on the show so I just that's the third one. It was 2 from Bitwise with the most interesting man in the world. We just got another one right before the show, so may as well play it because it's it's this is just a teaser of what's going to come all your long in 2024.
What the home of the Whopper is offering cash or? Credit. I think it's pretty bad if you have to use a credit card when you go to a fast food restaurant. Yeah this is good. This is great cash or credit. So for those of you listening on on on audio and you can find us on video on on on ex. We've all been posted the broadcast already So it's on the page but it's it's also pins the
top of this Twitter space. But you know this is this was hashtags and they were referring to that video famous video that went viral back then which is of people Burger King adopting credit card payments and people not believing in credit cards and saying that it's just never gonna happen and that cash is king. So it's a I think these are great. I I love. I love seeing these ads and and I'm just gonna keep on playing them but hey if if Black Rock or bitwise or hashtags or all the
other issuers are listening. You know, feel free to hit us up you know this work but but but on that I think this is really exciting and we are back to what Rukan was saying about to see a massive marketing campaign around all things ETS. I'm gonna keep the ETF chatter for in 5 minutes because we do have Eric coming on any moment now So let's let's do a quick little NFT roundup here across the board.
So the major news yesterday when it comes to NFT's was really just like the Logan Paul stuff that you've seen all over all over the timeline which is you know there was the Project Crypto Zoo that dropped last year. There was, you know, nothing came out of it. And then. You know a coffee, Zilla made a video, multiple videos I believe in multiple parts talking about that back and forth with Logan Paul blah blah blah and poor
being. Yesterday we got the announcement from Logan in a long thread actually long tweet format explaining what happened saying that Logan Paul launches A crypto zoo NFT buyback and then files a a countersuit as a legal battle rages on for Kate Irwin of G branch of Crypto. So the famous YouTuber and influencer alleges two of his crypto zoo more creators engage in theirs trading activity. So there is a backpack programme.
So the reason why we're mentioning on the show today is that if you bought those NFT's back, then you can get your money back. So don't, don't sleep on that. No matter how much you spent, like there's an opportunity for you to get to be made somewhat whole here. So I guess we love to see that. Obviously, we'd love to see more buybacks like that. So hey, if does that start a trend? Maybe, I don't know, but we'll
see. I don't if you guys have much more to add on that, but that's pretty much it. Like that's really the top of the head. There's nothing really else to add on that other NFT headline here per Tyler did it here. It looks like Jack Butcher's orders announcement is starting to have an impact. So there you know you can get us build a single check using a bunch of other cheques and Jack butcher ecosystem.
Actually I remember just a few weeks ago there was a single check sale for as low as 12 eighth or 12 or 15. Someone was was liquidating some NFT's but now I believe that you can get, you know the project which is announcement owners of single cheques will be the only ones eligible for ordinal cheques and they're gonna be maximum of 250. So again like the the the originals. I don't want to call it like height but ordinals because it maybe has a negative connotation.
So that's how I mean it like the originals like you know, volume, energy, height, whatever like seems to you know continue and to keep on keeping on. Also with Node Monkeys just continuing to see a lot of sales and the mid in the mid to mid to top of the end range. I was looking at the old ones like this was selling like crazy aliens and whatnot as well. So something that you love to see on that front. Let me just go DJ's finance Bitcoin there we go.
So you have there at .25 BTC. I believe they topped out a tweet. That's right. That's crazy. So that's another mint that went completely wrong and that then just like came back. It seems like the new meta, by the way. Bullish failed men. Like, I think it's like whatever. Every whatever man breaks up and everything goes to shit. It seems like everything rallies because that's what happened with no monkeys. Like No monkeys was born and moulded and food, right.
Very early on there was a bunch of like fraud and crazy stuff on a timeline and then this happened. Obviously don't have any here, but love to see like everybody have fun with it. I think it's mostly that's just and having a tonne of fun on his timeline with these monkeys claiming that he just can't stop buying them because of how they, because of how they look. And he's been. I mean, this has really been like covering a lot of the known
monkey sales and whatnot. So if you're interested in that, I know he's been, he's been enjoying that a lot and he's been talking about those monkeys saying I haven't seen a collection make me laugh this hard, maybe ever. If these go to zero, I will look at them with the same dumb and hysterical look on my face as I did tonight when I bought them. So these are that's what happens.
That's what we're talking Bitcoin ETS is probably a bunch of people that not even familiar with our show right now, probably asking what the hell is going on right now. Well, that's also what's happening on Bitcoin. These are Bitcoin originals. Money in the new world, you know. Exactly, exactly. This is, you know, our ancestors fought in Normandy and then for for for us to be trading these monkeys on on from the comfort of of our home and us, I don't mean me, I mean, you know, the
market. Participants because the puppets the monkeys, right? Sorry, sorry. I mean, they're monkeys, right? But they're puppets. But they're like most puppets. But yeah, anyways, so it's just, it just cracks me up, dude. Obviously be careful with media and stuff like we saw it happen with Therium. Doesn't mean it's gonna happen on Bitcoin, but hey, if you're gonna have fun, have fun. I ain't gonna be no boomer on here telling people not to do their thing on the show.
That, that is for sure. And besides this, on the NFT front, we got two ringer sales, right? It seems like there's one very large collector that has been is the co-founder of Wealth Simple. Actually, I didn't even know. That's kind of chat and it's pretty pretty big in Canada. It's like one of the only arms. The ham traded The slab of ham traded for 450 grand. Yeah, exactly. So you have you have the ringer sign for 75 ether pop and then you have a slab of ham selling Lost Robbie.
Do you guys have you guys have a Robbie? We have lost Robbie, yeah. You. I swear you guys have everything. It's crazy. Anyways, so Lost Robbie sold for 150 Ether. I believe that was beanies by the way. So that one sold for 150 is yeah, I'm pretty sure it was beanies. I think these was talking about this, but we can just go check the chain for ourselves, um, and see whose it was. Come on. There we go. It looks like. Was it. Ohh, maybe not. Not generally.
OK, no, it is, began Enjoyer. I'm pretty sure it's not it's not Beanie, but this sold, yeah, yesterday it was acquired for 88177 K on April 3rd, 2021. So it's it's not a bad train, 2 years, 100% return, you know not bad on in dollar terms, not 100% return on on, on in that terms. But anyways, that's about it.
On the NFT front, I'm gonna hard pivot here and go to our special guest off today every Bakunas Senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg who was kind enough to to respond quickly and come on the show in the middle of a of a pretty crazy timeline. So Eric Balchunas, good morning, Welcome. How are you doing today? Good. Can you guys hear me? Yes, Sir, we hear. You. Alright, thank you. Good. I'm in our Wilmington DE office, so greetings from Wilmington. And where are you guys based?
Looks like all over. Montreal over here, so we're not far out. Mandos and Lisboa, so in the beautiful Sun of Portugal, and over here is in. London, London. Yeah, Ohh, nice. All really great places. Anyway, yeah, no, it's this is actually the calm before the storm. There's not really a tonne going on but any minute. What do you think? Do you think we're gonna get it today or you get it next week? Well, I've I have a note coming
out. I just bashed this note out basically saying that pretty much we approval imminent. Probably we see 19 V fours come in in their final form later today, if not Monday when the approval order is shortly after. But what we've been hearing is that the SEC has been working with the issuers on their 19 before basically they're going back and forth on draughts. So that's why we've seen as one
to get updated. But the 19 B fours have been, the edits have gone right to the SEC, they haven't been refiled. So when we see those refiled, we'll know that SEC has signed off on them as being final. And to me that's almost, that's like 1 inch yard line because then it's just a matter of getting that formal approval from the SEC. So it sounds like the SEC just gave them comments yesterday on
their final. So it just doesn't matter how fast they can turn this around and how many people are working and a bit of a frenzied situation I'm sure. So I would guess if you know if I had a ballpark approval order comes Monday for 19 before is maybe Tuesday. That is if so facto the SEC saying we've approved them. So even though the US ones aren't approved, if they approve the 19 before, they're not going to deny the S ones. The ones though is a different team and they're a slightly
slower pace right now. So I think those could be approved Thursday, Friday and then maybe we see the launch in the week after MLK holiday weekend, the Tuesday or Wednesday after that would seem like a likely scenario. So imminent approval 10 days later the Derby begins.
Wow that's the. I would say that's a high odds on that the only outside chance of something going wrong is a if they just can't get everything, all the T's and i's dotted, you know, and they might ask for a couple more days. That could involve ARC, you know, withdrawing. I know there could be some scenario of like give us another week. That's one.
The other is this sort of like Black Swan event where like the the president says to Elizabeth Warren this can't happen and that somehow there's some divine intervention, divine being the president. And they basically somehow it's, you know that that that's very, very, very slim odds because you'd think that would have already happened if if they were working on this for months, they would have been notifying everybody what we're doing and they would have already done
this. So this 11th hour presidential intervention theory, I can't say it's a zero chance, but those would be. So that's those are the two reasons we're not like 100%. You know, I just think so. Yeah. Go ahead. Go ahead, Michael. I was just going to ask so like you and I've I've seen your your posts on on on X. You're believing that it will go live very soon after this is approved because a lot of other people are like unsure about that or like when it actually happened.
Your view this this is these are ready to go as soon as this gets approved. Yeah. I mean, well, it's 19 before it gets approved. Then there's the S1. When the S1 gets approved, those documents Quote unquote, go effective and when an ETF goes effective at the prospectus, the launch every single time is 24 to 48 hours after, so it would be odd if it didn't follow that. So I'm looking for a day or two after the ones effective. When will the ones be effective? That's the question.
And we're looking at maybe the end of next week. That puts us into the following week for launch. Yeah, I mean, like I said, this is just my, this is my read on it now, you know, I'm working with the information I have, but that seems to be the most likely scenario. It's it's so refreshing to actually hear an educated opinion on this. I'm sure you're from the time you spent on Crypto Splitter. There's there's all sorts of
garbage out there. And well, you know also keep in mind, well you know back in the day James and I were a bit of, you know, there was a couple of us, Nate, Tracy as well. We were a little alone in having this optimism. So we had to defend it. Now you've got a lot of good reporting from legitimate mainstream media sources that have their own independent sourcing and that is corroborated what I'm telling you.
So I feel, you know, even extra confident because now we've got many people with their nose in this and finding the same information. Yeah, so the comments from from Eleanor from Fox and then the tech. Crunch. Yeah, she's probably. She's mostly the one I'm thinking of Reuters, although they put a story out saying that it would be done a few days ago, two days ago. That was wrong. I don't know who would tell them that and why not.
Every. Yeah, every now and then you have to vet your sources because they have their own motives. But maybe somebody was just getting excited. I don't know. But that was not true.
Seems like a lot of people jumped the gun on both ways whether it's our our it's my personal store nemesis now Eric Marcus or or or or or Cointelegraph a few months ago which was which was quite an interesting yeah yeah we've question ready for you here it's that we saw this thread yesterday from Bitwise you know saying that saying that it that about in a surprising development only 39% of advisers believe that a spot Bitcoin staff will be approved in 2024
while you guys at Bloomberg have had that number at 90 percent 2024 like for the longest time would you would you would you think that that would you what would what do you think about the price of Bitcoin being priced in here. Yeah, that tells me that advisors are not on Twitter. A lot of them, again, a lot of these advisors, I, you know, they have a nice life. They go golfing, they are looking for new clients, They're reading Morningstar.
You know, they're not on heavily online people, so they wouldn't have caught us on Twitter and they probably don't have Bloomberg Terminal. Mostly institutions and asset managers have terminal, so they could easily have missed us. Now we have a podcast, but on my podcast we don't talk about this that often, maybe once every couple months. So it's possible they missed all this until now.
Now it's in Fox Business, right? So now they're probably getting wind of it. So I would just guess that's more of a function of them not like being like tuned in. But that also I think tells you about why there is a potential here for these big asset managers launching these ETF's because that advisory market which has $30 trillion and again most of it is people over 60, they're advisors where khakis go golfing. It's not a world that the crypto
people are familiar with. So I have to explain to them that's a lot of the big money in the United States operates that way. Those people, some of them, and some of their advisors will be interested in this simply because they totally trust the ETF format. They use ETF for everything. Advisors. If you take all ETF assets, there's a trillion. Advisors are about 70% of that number. They love ETF. They do because about 2010, twenty years ago, the way advisors got paid changed.
It used to be they get a kickback from the mutual fund, but a lot of them switched to getting a percentage of the client assets. So if you're an advisor and you're managing like a rich boomers assets and you're getting 1% or 75 basis points of their assets, all of a sudden you're on the lookout for costs and for the best deal because now it's coming out of your money. Well that made ETS real popular because they're a great deal.
And so over the years advisors have become very used to and and big users of ETF. So just having that in their preferred format almost like legitimises this asset class in a way, especially with the Black Rock and Fidelity involved. So this is a big deal, and I think that survey just tells you that you guys, in one way crypto is a is a frontier, but for you guys that is a whole nother. That's a frontier that has not been that. Those two worlds are really far
apart. I would say the ETF is a long bridge between those those two worlds, which is again why it's so interesting and fascinating off And while we cover it so much, it's just you know, yeah, there's so many like subplots and and a lot at stake. That said, it might not, they might not all allocate on day one and they won't. This will be a long journey. Love that. We love golf here. We love ETF. Go on, Mando. You guys think? Offers over and I talk. About mini golf.
I like mini golf. I I do chip. And Putt mini golf sometimes. OK, well, we'll take you out overnight. We'll take Eric and Mando out on the course one day and and we'll go, we'll go around. Mando, did you wanna? Do you wanna touch on that? Yeah, I love how you described them as now it's on Fox Business, so they'll know, they'll know it's out. But yeah, I wanted to say, but how big, how big do you see the
ETF market being here? Like there's a lot of different estimates based on like what happened with gold, what happened with different industries, opened up the ETFs, What would be a good year, you think in terms of AUM for these ETFs after after like the first there's a year or first two years? Yeah, OK. We're talking X GBTC's 20 billion, yes.
OK. So ex GBTC, fresh new assets, I'd say if you're looking for a solid new year for any new category, I mean a couple billion would be a solid new year. But given I'd be a little more optimistic than that I'd be like maybe 10 billion in year one. And then I think Ohh, but are it's a the short term is harder to predict here. Medium term, we do see this maybe in the ballpark of 30 to 50 / 3 years and then maybe it settles to where gold is at about 100 billion over 510
years. That's 1% of ETF assets though. So but 100 billion for you guys is massive to the ETF and regular Crowdfire world, it's a penny. So it depends on where you're coming from. If you look at the Canadian and European markets, they have spot ETF and you extrapolate their size of their market to the US that gives you, if you use Canada, you get to 72 billion here. If you use Europe, you get to about, I think it was 40 billion. So we're kind of splitting the difference.
So again and we're looking at gold. So our triangulation of where we get to 70 to 100 is but because of these other markets and gold, we're not just making the number up. That said, I would give, I would give us some openness for for you know up and down and especially short term. I think what we found in the bid O case when Biddle launched that launched into a mania, It was full FOMO. I mean, everybody's, you know, mothers and aunts and uncles were asking about this, right?
So you can consider like a bunch of minnows, like a million minnows in a lake hungry as hell. And Vito launched and through their bait right into that. And it was like a billion dollars trading. I think a lot of those minnows are gone. I think FTX scared some and I think some went to Coinbase and other exchanges that said the bigger fishes are in the lake, which is what these ETFs are going for. And the big fish, if you've ever been fishing, they don't, they
don't bite right away. They're they're harder to please. They usually sniff around the bait. You don't get them right off the bat like you do the small fish. So I would look for that kind of a metaphor, like when these bites come, they should be bigger and more substantial. But I don't see a crazy feeding frenzy on day one simply because the retail investor, I think many of them don't have that foam that they did in 2021.
They might get it later, I don't know, but I don't feel it in my own personal world, nor do we see it much in the in the sort. Of that's what I was going to ask. Volume numbers. How much, how much would it will be passive versus active? Like how much will people really even realise bitcoins being added to their portfolios versus it's gonna have to be an actually actively saying, hey, I want to add this to my to my, I don't know, 401K on my pension.
You mean how many will be actively when you say pass me by passive though in this? Case I mean like will BlackRock, do you think BlackRock, Fidelity, State Street, all these all these big they'll just start adding it as a standard standard allocation to some of their. Bigger. Yeah, I see. OK. So yeah, this is where I think I'm more optimistic because BlackRock has these model portfolios and they have well over 100 billion. So if they put even 1% into this new ETF as an allocation, that's
a billion dollars. So BlackRock uses IAU in its own models, that's the gold ETF they have. So if BlackRock were to get bullish on this and we've seen Larry Fink talk about it, I could see them being this being used in their models. There's also Fidelity have army of advisers. So if their advisers have a client who's asking, they now have a an in store brand they can use. And because they have an store brand with the advisor, start pitching it.
Maybe because you have to understand one of the reasons all these issuers have such a motivation to sell these is that these are going to charge more than the average stock and bond ETF which has been whittled down to nothing by Vanguard. So we call this a Vanguard Free Zone or a VFZ. It's like a a town with a bunch of there's no Walmart there. So if you're selling something without Walmart, it's that much
easier, isn't it? So Vanguard not going there and they're not going to go there is very appetising to these issuers. So even if the low mark is 39 basis points, which is Fidelity, that seems cheap, RX-80. I mean right now you can get a whole 6040 portfolio of stocks and bonds for three. So 39 is over 1011 times and that's the cheapest one, right. You see what I'm saying?
So if you're looking at a bunch of products that you're in the asset management business, you're definitely motivated maybe to sell the ones that have more revenue potential. So that is an underrated point here. That said, over the years I do think there'll be a fee war and we could end up with you know, sub 2010 basis point Bitcoin ETS, but that won't that that'll play out over a while. It won't happen on day one, although Invesco is already waiving their fee for the first six months.
But I wouldn't count that as like. That's interesting and worth coding, but their fee is 59 basis points, Fidelity is 39. I would call that this like the real low watermark. We could see not all of them have put their fees out yet, but we could see one at you know, below that for sure. So but over the years what what might happen is that somebody's losing a little mojo, they might cut their fee. We've seen this happen in the
stock and bond area. So you know, 5-10 years from now, what you're going to look at even 2 years from now is you're going to have a really cheap, very liquid.
You know, liquid. Meaning when you trade it, it's only one basis point, you know, So that makes coin bases, commissions look like highway robbery and the annual expense ratio is let's say 20 UM that is going to be very compelling versus any other option, especially because it's got the sort of SEC regulatory stamp of approval and some of these big brand names that are trusted on there.
So that's where I think the to get that liquidity and to get you know trading for four or $500 million of shares a day, it will take a little while. You you've got a volume in particular, you can't like somebody could put a billion dollars in their ETF on day one, but that doesn't really mean organic volume. Volume is has to grow natural in the wild. You can't fake it.
So whichever one or two get this really high organic volume, they're going to be set for life and they're they're that's going to be where a lot of the institutions start going. That's why this race is so intense. You really can only have one or two big winners. There'll be a middle class, there'll be one or two losers. That's how this will play out. But there's really, we've seen it time and time again. There's really usually only one
giant liquidity stud. Then there's one big one that has a lot of assets that's cheaper but doesn't have quite the liquidity as the first one. And then there's a huge drop off to like three to seven or like middle class and then usually like the ones below that are struggling to stay alive. Do you guys have, umm you know, the focus has been purely on Bitcoin ETF and that situation is hopefully coming to a head in
the next few days, if not today. Have you guys done any work or do you have any early views on whether the spot ETH ETF has any likelihood of being approved? And what would you say are the key differences between the Bitcoin ETF and the Ether ETF? I mean not a lot we're we're pretty optimistic on the East because simply because umm, if the SEC approved Bitcoin futures and then they got sued and said you can't deny spot because you
approve futures. And so then they said, OK, we'll have to approve spot, then they approve ether futures will ipso facto you have to approve ether spot, are you going to get sued again for the same exact reason. So we're well over 50% that we'll see ether spot by May. Yeah, I wouldn't say we're 90 yet because we need first of all, we're just our heads aren't there right now. But I mean that's it would be odd. I don't know what they would use. We'll have to look into it a
little more. But James and I were both like talking should we give a percentage? I'm like no, just going to confuse people because we let's just stick to Bitcoin, get over this and then you know, later this month we'll probably start looking over there. But if you want me to ballpark it, I'd say 70%. And do you have any opinion on I mean this might be more of a cryptic question but I don't know like there's obviously there's there there is a lot of macro traditional macro fund
investment in crypto. Are you do you guys have any view any idea if there are any investment mandates out there that maybe get activated if this you know wants this this Bitcoin ETF gets approved. Like I know some people are able to play it anyway but you know some mandates may require. I don't think a mandate would say we you need a Bitcoin ETF to do this. But like it may start activating funds from that standpoint that that can't. Yeah, speculate at this stage if that makes sense.
It's possible. I mean, I think when you look at the institutional world advisors it, it's interesting, this is a really interesting point. Advisors really don't care about alternatives that they're going to see this as hot sauce, something to sort of spice up the portfolio and cure possible FOMO and to add value. Ohh hey, I got you the new Bitcoin ETF. I I can, I can get the new gadgets for you. That's how they'll see it.
Institutions they they're going to look at this more as an all like is you know the way Larry Fink is like should this be put where instead of gold should we have a sleeve for the digital assets should you know institutions love the Yale model too which is all about alts and private equity and hedge funds and real estate. So yeah, that that could appeal to them. The institutions though, I will say they are only going to use the one that's really liquid, so
that's why. Another reason if you are the liquid one, then you start to get the big big fish biting. Now, I'm not talking about the sizeable fish earlier in the pond. I'm talking about like giant fish. Like if you look at GLD, you know which is the biggest gold ETF. Some of the holders in here are like, you know, Harvard, um, you know, a pension plan from Michigan.
A lot of hedge funds own GLD. SPY is owned by just about every kind of institution out there, and they use them for different reasons, like they may use it to complete a portfolio, um, they may use it as a liquidity sleeve real quick before they actually allocate it to maybe some kind of a direct crypto investment, I don't know. But a very highly liquid way to get beta to Bitcoin will be used by institutions you know, not
heavily the one. There is one thing that I think also the crypto world misses about investing in general. Like do you got. I know a lot of people have like 100% of their portfolio in this thing. Normal people are not like that and I I don't think this will ever eat into the 6040. What you have to understand and and I I would recommend reading my last book called The Boggle Effect. Stocks, our basic are companies.
Companies are made-up of people who get up and work every day hard and create value and innovate. That gets passed on in the forms of earnings growth and dividends. That's cash sent back to you as an investor. There is nothing like that in Bitcoin. A bond? You get a coupon payment. So those two things are how they say your money works for you and you will never, you will never overturn that. That's said, a small allocation. On top of that, again, a little hot sauce bucket 10% people
have. So I see 6040 still dominating the core with a little sliver of 10% for other things. Maybe it's arc, maybe it's Tesla call options or Robin Hood account Bitcoin. That's where you're going to fit for most normal people, this guy. Yeah, I'm sorry, normal. People, People. I know, that's what I'm saying. You're talking to people. That have. Been 8% of their like portfolio and like Solana and they're like 3 big.
One like. You know, getting with the bitcoins, yes, I got my livelihood on Solana right now. So it's like. Yeah. But I would limit your, your visions, of course, to a small sliver of the portfolio. Yeah, Institution, advisor or otherwise. I know, I I know it's it's hard to hear, but. You know. What these other things give you money. Your thing is just based on what someone else will pay for it.
Of course. We Mandi. Quality. Madonna actually we spent 10 years working in traditional finance. We were piled credit traders. So we actually jumped to the dark side to go full crypto over my one counter. Like, did you throw away all your 6040? Yeah, completely 100%. Yeah, not for that two years ago. And the only stock I owned until recently was Coinbase, so which isn't really a diversification.
And I I reckon a lot of of the normal people may do that once they start, when we when once we get to them. You know, all you have to have is a taste of Bitcoin, Eric, And then you want it all. We'll get you through. We'll get you to where? We'll get. We'll get you That was the first heart. No, I I spent three years basically doing research on Jack Bogle and Vanguard. I've been to bus. I've been too full of the Boggle DNA to ever get away from that.
That said, I am a fan of the hot sauce bucket. I think you need stuff in there to get you excited. Scratch your FOMO which is cure your phone Cure your FOMO and and the little speculation and that hot sauce bucket sometimes keeps you you know it scratches your itch enough that you can wait for the 6040 to grow over 40 years in compound because compounding returns is where the magic happens.
So I'm, I'm a fan of that and that's where I think that's how I view this asset class and I think most normal maybe we should traditional investors would agree. Yeah, I think my only, my only counter to that is I think what you said is true of Bitcoin. But I think in other ecosystems they are you know, foundations that actively hire people that create a lot of jobs that then go out there and put a lot of value and and create technological.
What, you mean like a minor, like a company that does? Something like something like Solana or other ecosystems where you've had or if they've hired tonnes of developers across the world and they're building a decent size network that is used by many applications and entities and that creates jobs, it creates value. And it's not the same as a stock
in, in, in in in that way. But there are, I think there are similarities that don't exist with Bitcoin but exist with maybe perhaps other tokens within crypto. Yeah, that's a fair point. I, I just don't think it reaches that level of what you get with like, you know, a big, a big large cap stock that has like 30,000 employees. Yeah, Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. I like that. This is a great conversation and I hope a lot of people learn from Eric.
Look I know you stayed a little bit over time with us today and and we're we're we're we're coming in close to to 11:30 I guess like last question for you. I mean, I know James, you know, keeps you know, emphasising his like 8 to 10th, you know, dates for that. What? What are you? What are you? What are you, what are you thinking here with regards? To the James, James and I agree on almost. We're almost like sharing the
same brain at this point. There's one or two things we differ on, but the dates and the timeline were on the same page. So the 8th to 10th I would just say you know again the next thing to watch is the 1st 19 before that is filed refiled. That should be in final form and if it is, that means the SEC signed off. As far as everything I'm hearing, they're doing back and forth with the issuers to get
the 19B4's final. So if they if the SEC has said yes, we think you're 19 before is final and you see it filed that's that's a real that puts us to the one inch yard line. Then you just at that point you're waiting for the formality of the SEC approval which again probably next week but then there's again this S1 which is a different document and so that's the steps I would watch over the next several days. James and I are completely in concert with this.
We we we have different sources, some the same but some different and we triangulate and compare notes all the time and that's that's the overlapping information I just gave you everybody sort of sort of what the chatter is. That's really cool. And no concerns about the fact that Gary Gensler seems to be quite anti crypto. And I mean, he's the most hated man on crypto Twitter. But, you know, no worries about Gary Gensler trying to pull some
shenanigans last minute. Like I said it would be. It wouldn't just be a rug pull on the asset managers who spent all the time and money. And remember, a lot of these asset managers are where he's going to work when he's done. So like this is a revolving door between Black Rock and Fidelity and the SEC and the government. Like these people know each other. One guy from BlackRock who went to many of the meetings was at the SEC.
So he know this is so. Not only would he be wasting time and money of these giant asset managers, he would be wasting his own staff synergy. They've spent a lot of time and a lot of them work great through the holidays. That would be like the ultimate jerk move to his own issue.
I mean, his own staff, but what what made me think he is completely going to, you know, he's doing this and he's making it happen and won't do that is there's been two or three interviews now because you kind of have to read like I call it Gensler Ish. It's like code where he said. Sometimes we, you know, we do things that that are within our authority and sometimes the courts tell us. He said that a couple of times in relation to grayscale.
So I think they're doing it, but they don't like that they're doing it and that's why this sort of like saying hey, this court made us do it and so all of his anti crypto rhetoric is almost his way of washing his hands. You know, like I don't like this at all, but the court made me do it. If it blows up, it ain't my problem. So I also think that's actually good that he's being. So it's almost his way of hedging from this like nasty thing he has to do in his brain.
So that's where I think all this stands. That's why, because I heard early on this is a 10th floor issue, meaning that both the everybody was the normal process was out the window, everybody was going to report to the 10th floor, which is where the commissioner sit. And so he wouldn't have directed both departments to work with the issuers for months at this point. That would be just. Again, it would be like the most
sadistic. It would be like spectacularly sadistic, so I think it's out of the question. But wouldn't ask you we had, we wouldn't put it past him personally like in this space we're like well, you know, but I wanted to ask you for the reason that I think coming from you and we have a lot of of course like large bitcoiners in the audience
right now. And you know a lot of people that are generally interested don't necessarily understand the whole ETF thing with, you know, it's the only thing we're talking about lately on the show or even in the space. So I think coming from you, it's good for the people that still had that, you know, that 1% worry or doubt in their minds. I you know, I I it's probably healthy and I also think everybody's saying this is a sell the news event. I think that's healthy. It's much more.
Umm, it's a more angsty bull run. Whereas in 2021 I remember when video launched again, it was it was like, oh this is going to like $1,000,000 in the next month. Like everybody. It was crazy. Everybody just seems much more like this can't really keep going. There's there'll be a sell the news event, the ETF one, there's a lot more doubt that's probably healthy. So I would say it's good to have a little dose of that.
In my opinion, even with all the things we're hearing, I think a little tiny bit of doubt is OK. Yeah. I mean, we all got liquidated 2 days ago, Eric. So we're all a little, you know, sitting on our hands here waiting for a but ohh, I mean me but waiting for, uh, waiting for a for the. Big guys. Did you guys, were you part of the people who sold when that Matrix report came out two days ago we bought. We bought slash, got liquidated. We only buy like we are.
We are believers, believers. That's all we do is buy. I just know how to press the green button and we but thankfully you know we've been doing this on the show for for a minute now and and you know we bought those dips at 15, you know 12 whatever. Did you ever, like, question the whole thing, You know, say like the month or two after FTX blew up? Did you have like a existential crisis? Or you were like, Nah, no biggie. I think we still believed in it all like it was things like that.
They're a big hit to the industry, but they're not, You know, it's not the first time the exchange is blowing up or you've had a thing. And I think they seem to corroborate with crypto cycles, which kind of corroborate a little bit with market cycles too. So, you know, if you have the liquidity and ability, it's
obviously the best time to buy. But it's, you know, it takes a toll because you come just like, oh shit, like I'm triple levered to the entire industry and now people think it's going to go away, so. You have such parallel behavioural science test to the Bogleheads, which is so ironic. You just do it with Bitcoin. They do it with stocks. They look at selling a market correction as a buying opportunity. They're just they just buy. They do it long term and you cannot shake them.
That's why the flows when a stock sell off happens, the the Vanguard flows are relentless. It is interesting though. I've found a couple. So this is also this sort of like populist vibe in the Bogleheads and in like. Ohh yeah, we're, we're sticking it to Wall Street. We're not giving them any of their money you guys have there. There's an interesting parallel between those two worlds. Yet they would be, they would be.
What's the word? Like they would find it grotesque to sell their 64 and go into that's the one big difference. Like they just they're as big of a believer in the 6040 as you are in this and in terms of like sell offs, you cannot shake them. I love that. I love, I mean 6040 for us like 64% majors and 40%. Chicken, There you go. There you go. That's my personal 6040. Sometimes it goes the other way around. Bogleheads is what we should be calling our ourselves from here
forward. So I'm going to take that Eric and I absolutely love it. Personally speaking I don't think ever had doubt in the industry. I mean have no choice when you're founder in the space like we have to keep on keeping on especially given that we're in media here on our end. But definitely was a moment in time where As for FTX, like I was really scared.
Like it was a like when that happened I was like wow, like seeing a lot of our best friends lose everything they had and you know millions, 10s of millions or the companies go bankrupt. And it was my personal 2008 where I was too young. But remember seeing family, family, friends, like get completely like obliterated? Like, for me, it's like I was like, wow, is that how, like might, you know, people felt
back then. I'm not trying to compare the two, but just saying like, that's like emotionally, like, it was a scary time. But instead Mandovi and I, you know, agreed behind the scenes to just like not become doomers and just like kind of try and carry, you know, the energy forward. And we came here every day and we hosted every, we host every day, just like the 400 and 5500
episodes, for what it's worth. But we, you know, never, never lost conviction, never had more conviction in my life that, you know, I think I'm at the right place at the right time. But Mandel, did you ever lose any conviction in this space? I don't think you did. It's a time. It's a timing thing you just these things set back. But yeah look we're we're of the full belief that this is this is
a bit of an economic revolution. Like we think this is more than just just a slice like we we think this asset class realisation and all this sort of stuff can move quite quickly into into tokens and it's not just about the currencies themselves like they as I've said I think you can end up having having full financial ecosystems move onto the it's just a letter at the end of the day. So they can they can move on to blockchain technology.
So yeah we we we've been believers for a while FTX definitely, definitely changed the timeline of that but yeah it feels as though this is just this is going to be another step. It might disappoint it might be good but in five years there'll be five more steps of like I think this is becoming a bit more accepted and being used a bit more. So yeah, we're, we're, we're, we're still super bullish no matter what happens after the
CTF. I like this set up by the way the The Brady Bunch look ohh yeah, probably don't remember that show but. In different countries as well. So Hollywood Squares, whatever. Because me and my team are, we're going to do something soon. Except we're going to discuss ETF debatable ETF topics. But I like this with the names and the way you're able to flash up comments. We'd love to help you, Eric.
I mean we have a full you know we have a big staff we're 32 people at decrypting rug radio the best you know they actually booked one of the largest trade in NFT history a last year actually the beginning of last year. So we're we're definitely here to to to help in in any way we can if cause that we we're we can big big TF guys lately. Yeah, and by the way. You so I'm just waiting for the BTC ETF. The the one thing with the ETF
is you won't get an SPF. Even if someone lost their minds and went full SPF, that they they can't steal the money. That's the beautiful thing about this. So that's why I was. I thought the SEC should have approved these, you know, right off the bat they would have helped prevent some of the intermediaries from doing bad things, which is all that was. It wasn't the currency's fault.
It was the intermediary. So I think that's a a good sign for people because ETF investors, they don't really, they know things go up and down. What they don't want is the potential to have their assets gone or for it to not track the price, which is the problem with BTC. And so ETF's are really good at just tracking the price and make and in a safe way. So anyway, that's why we're we're generally more just this should be ETF eyes than like pro Bitcoin per se. We're more pro ETF.
So anyway, good talking to you guys. Thanks for coming. Thank you very much. Forward to the breaking news tweet saying it's been approved. No, When it gets approved, that's worthy of a breaking in my opinion. But hey we're watching for 19 before you know there's otherwise you're if you breaking everything then like when you there really is something breaking. Like, no, nobody pays attention. It's everything. Breaking news. You're gonna destroy the word breaking.
Yeah. Anyway, alright, see you guys. Guys. That was fun. That was that. I have to say kudos to shout out to shout out to A to Eric here for for staying 40 minutes rather than the 15 minutes that was planning boys. I love I love the second-half which was which was him convincing us that that that the 6040 was good takeover he's he's
a he's a 60% pay 40% with. We should have told him exactly singling obese portfolio 60%, Pepe 40% with and then you have Eric Calculus telling us like yo, you gotta be sisters, dogs. Like imagine you imagine you sit down your show, Eric, like your portfolio on how much like dollars you have in it. The guy have a fucking heart attack. You what? Yeah. What's the note, Mike? Wait till you tell him that you sent the 1000 needs to one way. Yeah.
So I put 1000 leads into this thing that I don't have access to. The wallet. I've got five guys, probably just one guy controls at all in his bedroom and yeah, like I should get it back in a couple of months, but I'm not really sure. Alright man. Well my Pepper ETF, that's what we should have asked right. But anyways so that was that was great that was our honestly that was best short of year.
I mean we're all four days into the year but that was one of our top ten guests here and I think it was extremely insightful and I'm glad that a lot of our audience here are still listening both on spaces and on audio. Got the got the sauce. Listen everybody you love this show. You love the guests we bring you on we need your help. So follow from our FOMO HOUR from our on Instagram. We actually, just so you guys know, we actually are live on Instagram too, which is super
funny as of yesterday. Like you go on Instagram like on from hours page and you could watch the show. So I find that super cool. So we're literally live everywhere and the the the episodes get uploaded every single day on Spotify and all this stuff, Apple, blah blah. So we're literally everywhere but most importantly on video which is the most fun and we're going to try and get you guys some more banging guests for next few weeks.
I mean boys could be today, could be Monday, could be Tuesday, it could be Wednesday. But for Eric, I mean I think this this kind of cemented our, our beliefs, right? Are we leaving this bullish? Ohh, I'm reporting right now like this is not good. I'm about to set. No, I'm kidding. I'm not gonna send it today.
I like the comments on each. He was pretty bullish on the Econ. I didn't think of that argument that he made, which was if you have a futures ETF and you have to be able to have a convert it into a spot, which is the whole grayscale thing. So ETF by the first half of this year be pretty like pretty bullish?
I mean if it is literally one of one of the one of the I saw what was the DC sweet yesterday, it's like the one token, it was not like considered like security, it was like more considered like a commodity like which helps like this entire like ETF narrative for Therium. So I think I saw FUBAR tag Eric and James actually on the tweet yesterday asking when the ETF stuff is happening. I believe like all these deadlines are later this year like May and May and on right.
So that's obviously for later this year, but like these guys are active even on the ETF stuff. So they're good people to follow. So it's it's Eric Vacunas for those of you who might not be familiar, we've shared this at multiple times on our on our socials and then it's Jay safe, right James that they were saying that they shared different sources but they also but they're very much aligned on everything.
So, Jay. The thing for me was how big he thought it could be. Like he 100 billion like that is huge like. Massive, yeah. Numbers are. Big like people have been because he did mention the European camp, like there are spot ETF already in Europe and Canada right now and they don't trade that much and they're not that liquid. But, but his estimate is versus the amount of money in the US and also versus what like what Gold had done 100 billion would
be absolutely massive. In the market, 100 billion is like bigger than all tokens, all market caps of tokens. Besides Ethan Bitcoin like that's the amount of volume they coming into, right? Like if there is a 267. People. Fine like 70% of people right now is in is in long term holders hands right Like this would be forced dying of of of with billions and billions that is that is a huge huge figure so. You know, and that's not the most and. He's clearly not a crypto person, right?
He's not sitting there going like. Yeah. Anything go ahead. But the Bogleheads was crazy. Like, I kind of, I took that as a compliment. Like he's like, you guys don't care. Like you just fucking like. You couldn't know what it was. Gonna head of bobble head thing. In the end of you so hold. On. Interview, the whole interview, he was saying Boggle head And what did you guys think that was? I don't know. I know.
I mean, I I I understood what it was from what he he what how he'd explained it. But I was just like I haven't heard that term before. You guys, you guys are trying guys that made my living on fucking social media, dude. I don't know what. You know what's incredible by the way? Like, he just had that whole talk from. He's obviously like almost certain that we're gonna get this either today, like we're gonna get indications of it today, or and wrapped up in the
next few days. For like edit like final like when. You're not. Yeah. 19 before is the application to file for a spot ETF. So he's saying when they submit it, if they submitted today, which would be theoretically the final version of it, then they should either sign off it on it today or next week. But it's amazing to me that like, there's like, what, there's 400 people that maybe
listen to the space today. Like there's thousands of hundreds of thousands of people out there crypto Twitter who are not listening to something like this and probably not even following Eric or James and just have no idea what's going on. Who are like thinking about like, oh, this is going to get approved, not approved. Like when you literally have someone telling you were like extremely strong sources that the likelihood is like almost certain.
Like, it's pretty insane to me that there are people out there who still think this isn't going to happen based on nothing. 80% of advice that things gonna happen like that's why. Yesterday, yeah. But that that that survey was not an accurate one because it was taken 8 months ago. So it's a very different story. Like, I love this comment, right? Like, most of these people are just like golfing. And like, he was like, literally
what people don't understand. Like these Mfers, and he really said that they're incentivized to sell ETF because they make like they said what, 75 basis points on like the deals they're. Being or whatever. Yeah, 99 to 80, yeah. Right. So they make money on on, on. They make money on selling those ETF's to their clients and their, the rich clients. And clearly Bitcoin is going to be up this year.
So by the end of the year, all these advisors are going to be geniuses in the eyes of all these millionaires and billionaires that they're selling these ETF's to. Like people. I don't think people understand. Like, we talk about the marketing of it and the ads and everything is going to go live on national television. Everything. Larry Fink pumping our bags on Fox News everyday at Bloomberg. But like, you don't understand, like, how much money's gonna be made on these golf courses.
Like, yeah, it's funny, but it's true. Like for for eat, like either ETF business now is obviously very low fees and zero fees just like brokerage like stock brokerages and you know that's where crypto same thing with crypto brokerage like the sexes can charge like such high fees compared to like stockbrokers and that's why there's obviously a lot of money in margin. But it's the same thing for ETF.
Like, it's exactly how he said, like you have a stock ETF, you're basically making zero fees because of Vanguard. But now you can charge, like he was saying, like 10/11/12 times the amount you usually make. Like all these guys, especially Black Rock, especially the guys who charge higher fees, they're going to be like fucking putting in all their resources into this because it's actually a genuine like, revenue generator for
them. So, yeah, like that's extremely, extremely bullish, something I hadn't considered either. Like do you understand that even at? This. 1000 Bitcoin you're early to this space. Who this is? Like, this is the beginning of the institutions are coming, I think. Because if you then get some of the bigger players, like you said, like some of the pension funds and university endowment funds who want exposure to crypto, they can go out there.
They don't have to worry about fucking ohh gonna buy like a hard wallet and all this shit. Just go out there and buy. You know, buy whatever. The ticker isn't what the tickets are yet, but you bought the tickets. And well, the ticker is Hoddle, actually. No, the ticker is the. Ticker is mark. There's multiple tickers. I mean that that ticker is great too, but the ticker the taker is, is huddle. One of them is is ticker is literally huddle for one of those ETF. That's for Vanek, right?
I think my next one. Annex stickers Hoddle and Vanek is out there like replying reply guy into people on CT like if you don't see it like I don't know how to like there's too much going on. I'm too bullish. I'm going to run through a wall after this show. It is 11:48 AM so let's let's get this party ended and or started for what it's worth the 4th. This could happen today probably not but cause you heard on the
show today. But it's gonna be an exciting week next week and I'm really happy that we ended this this week's back on formal hour with the Bangor guests. So you know maybe maybe he can come on when ETF come around maybe we can have another conversation about that was very exciting. So boys with that I guess have a great weekend. Enjoy your hot sauce bucket. Seems like that was everybody's favourite today.
The hot sauce comment, you know I mean obviously swimming in that hot sauce, sure that hot sauce that was that was great character to Eric Buckler is one more time for coming on. And of course our partners at Ledger, if you're looking to partner with with the show by the way, you can always go to our formal hour Lincoln bio where everything set up there with that, with that, with that, that closes off another great week off. For more hour on Rock Radio, see on Monday, Peace Out.