Good morning, Good morning everyone, GM, GM and welcome to another episode of Omo Hour Day. Day is Monday, April. 7th. Point .5 post We thought we thought it might be Black Monday. We had Black Thursday and Black Friday and then Black Sunday night. It was setting us up for a rough start to the week. Global markets crashing, US equities hitting bear market territory. Crypto was following. But now Trump's telling everyone don't be panicking and and
markets are starting to respond. The question is, can we trust him or should we be panicking? We're going to break it all down on today's show. No Faroque. He is traveling today, but we've got Mando in the house. Mando, Jim, how are you holding up? I'm holding up OK. Yeah, I'm holding up OK. I've actually traded pretty well the last few days, so I've been relatively happy with how I did it. But yeah, we're luckily we we started bouncing as soon as the
show went live. Otherwise it was looking to be a very stressed opening day the week for us. We can get into all that. But yeah. We will the tone of the show quite different starting at 10 AM versus how do we start at 9:30. Yes, so very different. You were tuning into a very different episode of FOMO Hour, folks. It is going to be a tighter show here this morning, but we are going to talk everything about these markets.
Stocks are falling Sunday night. It looks like they're starting to rebound despite Asia markets having I think one of their worst days of all time. We had folks crashing down the timeline, including Bill Ackman, JP Morgan raising their recession odds, Stanley Druckenmill are actually coming out and defending tariffs to a degree. And then Trump has started to respond more and more here yesterday and now this morning. So we're going to talk about that cryptos potential relative strength.
Does anything look like a buy or are we still selling all of the pumps and more? So that's what we're going to talk about on today's show. Before we dive in, shout out to our partner starting with Galaxis.
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checkout. So if you want to learn more, well at wallet connect on X and Telegram to stay ahead of what's next. We love our partners as always. Now, Mando, if you're ready, let's get right into it. Can you dig it? GM everyone so yeah, we had a pretty wild weekend to be honest. Crypto have been outperforming for a little bit.
Obviously on Friday it was and then what you started to see on Friday was that everyone was like, oh, you know, we've had this good correlation to gold, even gold side to sell off. So there was kind of this oh God, everything's about to nuke sort of market here and crypto seemingly got caught up in that as well. So you saw gold, but go down to 3K from where was it about 3103 thousand 200 nearly and you saw
global stock. There was just I think there was an expectation on Friday that maybe deals would get done over the weekend. You know, maybe there'll be a deal done with the UK, with Canada, with Japan, like maybe, maybe they'd be light at the end of the tunnel for these sort of deals. And it, it just didn't seem to be the case. In in fact, Trump's comment made some comments last night, which is like Europe owes the US reparations for previous trade deficits.
And it felt like they were maybe even drifting apart this morning. You've seen a slight softing from certain points. So you saw Europe said, hey, we're actually going to delay our retaliatory, retaliatory tariffs until later this month. And then they said, and leave the door open maybe for a deal to be done. You saw that Japan's Prime Minister said they'd had a call with the US and maybe that could lead to a deal.
We saw that, yeah, just a general like slight, slight softening or or at least indication that that that that could still be a route open for deals, not really from Trump, but from other people, let's say. And some indications, you know, from people in the administration that countries are reaching out. We had the figure that fifty countries had reached out for deals. And I think everyone just felt slightly better about the market after that.
This morning. We were selling off and then there was there was a headline first thing, which was a little bit of a bounce, which is probably the bottom looking back at it, which is that the Fed is holding a meeting today that is actually a fairly standard meeting for them. So I wouldn't read too much into it, although they have done special meetings like that around COVID and also around the the SSVPSVB collapse, you know, two years ago.
It doesn't like that what's happening today, but undeniably, I'm sure they'll be talking about what's going on in the stock market. And broadly this, this was a up until now, like rest of world stocks have broadly up outperformed U.S. stocks. Today was the come of the day that that changed. So Chinese stocks closed down 13%. In Hong Kong, DAX was down 10%. Various different European stock indexes were down 5 to 10%. It was it was definitely a bloodbath kind of across the
board. And I think people were definitely feeling it, definitely feeling it this morning. And I'm wondering how, how it's going to get fixed. You did see now what I've been saying is that the response to this has to be stimulus. And I think that's what we're going to see. I think we're going to see already China said we're going to do some sort of stimulus, extra stimulus package this morning. And so this idea that global liquidity will go higher feels likely to me.
And and we're going to see money printing to kind of help deal with the help deal with the issues. So yeah, I think I think I'm not feeling as bad about stuff this morning. At least I can see we can have a relief rally. I don't think, I don't think we're out of the woods by any means like Trump. Trump is still pointing to the idea that, you know, there should be no trade deficits between countries. And I feel like his base is also kind of like they're kind of
behind him on this. Like, weirdly, this is the story has kind of changed to lowering tariffs to like this being a way to like redistribute wealth and actually feels like that's like empowering the Trump base. So I don't necessarily think that he I've been thinking a lot about why this is happening.
Yeah. And for me, it feels as though there's been an like a kind of implicit decision that one of the only ways to improve income inequality in the US is to try and basically cut trade deficits with external countries rather than tax on which. And that's kind of where we're at. Yeah. And I think that's fairly spot on. And I mean some more thought. I've spent most of the weekend thinking about this and like, what are the scenarios from
here? And I don't think there's really any scenario where Trump just like totally backs down and reverses course. I think perhaps the optimistic outcome is he truly was using these absurd numbers as negotiation tactic and tries to you know, when, when the negotiations here and get down to 10 percent, 20% more somewhat more reasonable level, it's still going to have an impact. But I mean, I think even that's a question, right I. I'm not sure if he wants to do that.
I've been like, I've been debating this a little bit, like, and I use Vietnam because it's a good example. But like the general thesis seems to be that like, let's say there's a group of people that live in the countryside and a group of people that live in a big mega city like New York, right? And the basis of this is that do you think, do you think there should be 0 trade balance
between those two people? It seems natural that like the country would import more than exports back to the countryside, let's say, or, or where there's cheaper labour. Now the Trump, how this is working is basically saying there should be no trade deficit between the two of them. If there is, we're going to tax you. And that puts a country like Vietnam, like it can't, it can't import enough to, to, to fix that sort of an issue.
But, and there seems to be like expectation that actually we kind of want to do some of the stuff that's going on in the countryside, in the big mega city like New York, like, hey, actually we want to do that too. And I think that's that's kind of what's going on here. It's more like they want to actually redistribute the wealth inside the USA little bit more. And that is quite a popular thing with Trump, with Trump's
base and with a lot of people. And at other times that's tried to happen, it's like we're going to we're going to basically tax the wealthy. And that is seen as kind of like a kind of at odds with the American dream. I I would say, or like it's seen as like, you know, it goes in against incentives. But this way they're basically you just tax anyone who import who has a trade deficit with the US. Everyone doesn't necessarily do
better in that scenario. Like everyone can actually do a little bit worse in that scenario. But the US is the strongest economy by far, best, best demographics, biggest, biggest military, like easily has the most firepower to deal with this. So it's kind of one of these worlds where I think the the bet here is the US will do better than every other country if this
happens. Like I would say global wealth may come down in that world, but you also get a situation where the US redistributes it's wealth in a certain way. So and I think that's kind of what Maga's changing. It's, well, not really changing, but like they're fine with that. So I don't think Trump's backing down on this. I think this is kind of like, I think he kind of wants this. Yeah, Yeah. I mean, he's, he said as much.
I mean, he, he came out and said our intention was not to crash markets, but also that sometimes you got to take medicine. And like the, they've been saying, there could be some pain. I've, I've had, I'm in law. People have been trying to digest this all the, over the weekend. Some are saying like, at what point would we see civil unrest perhaps in the US? But I think you kind of nailed that.
I, I don't know that we are very close to that scenario at all, because the, the, the people most disproportionately impacted are the wealthiest, right? And and they're not be the ones who who take to the streets and I don't think most most people are are are they're not impacted yet. I think it's it's still to be seen. Give me give me one quick second, but. Yeah, I, I think that's basically what's going on. I, I don't think, I think he might win, win people over this
way. It's definitely an America First policy and it does affect multinational corporations quite badly. But again, like a lot of people in the US don't like multinational corporations. So, and there's all other attempts to kind of solve income inequality are generally seen as they, they just, they're not as popular. It, it's, it's, it's, it's a weird notion, but like taxing the rich is far less popular than taxing, taxing foreign countries.
And even though the tax on foreign countries can reduce your everyone's economic wealth, including the US more, the concept is, is that that is one of the best ways potentially to reduce income inequality in, in the US. And I see it, you know, like I see it from more right wing commentators that like, this is the narrative. Suddenly it's like, hey, we've actually fixed income inequality more than like the left has for like 50 years here, right.
And that's something that's actually a little bit popular. So I, I kind of feel as though this can continue. And I don't think he's in a rush to make deals. Yeah. I think, but what's? Bitcoin and crypto, I think it's as I've said before, I think this is going to lead to massive stimulus, which is already happening. And I think that there's potentially also an erosion of dollar power in this world, or at least like what all Fiat currency power I feel can be
slightly diminished here. Like if free trade is diminished in this world, then then you can imagine that, yeah, like few people need dollars, few people want to borrow in dollars. Fewer people want to do that in, in various different countries. If that gets diminished. So I'm, yeah, I, I, I think, I think, I think crypto can still do well. I, I really do. I was surprised that they traded badly this weekend, but you have to remember it's the most risk
on asset that is 24/7. So people go in and they're like, need to short it on a on a weekend, you know? This is sorry, I I literally exclaimed when I when I went back to the crypto board folks, because this is not quite the rebound Bitcoin back over 80 K. It was it went sub 76 on the market open just 45 minutes ago and now like the weekly numbers, we just had the one of the worst three days stretches. Now, of course, stocks are rebounding.
The S&P flips green as well, but in U.S. equity history and bitcoins down 3 1/2 percent on the week. I think that's pretty, that's, that's a pretty strong signal and, and Sailor didn't buy. He came out and said it. What a great week for Sailor not to have bought.
I guess perhaps for our confidence, because I think there was, maybe we'll find out if GameStop was the one buying Friday. I think Friday was where it really felt like there was a strong bid when it was Friday afternoon and equities kept falling off a Cliff and then Bitcoin was holding that 83K level. And I think a lot of folks thought it was either strategy or or GameStop, but. I just don't think we're like, I'll be very don't confuse volatility with we're so back or
it's so over. I think we're just in a period of very heightened, like even now you have like, Oh my God, we're going, we're so back. Just be aware that this is a market that is insanely volatile. Like I, I said it over before we went live, I was like, it just feels like we're about to bounce just because like, it's not that any good news had really come out. It's not like Trump suddenly changed his opinion. It's just like everyone just feels like they're, they're too
short. So no, in that world, like there's extremes of positions right now and you can gap up 10% and there'd be no news, literally nothing. So I feel like that's also the world we're in. So I, I think Bitcoin can continue to outperform global stocks, everything here, but it had a bad weekend and it sometimes does. Do you remember like when all the Middle Eastern wars were happening or like flare ups were happening? It was just like, why is Bitcoin
the thing? There was a little bit of that this weekend where it was just like, right, we're just going to pummel Bitcoin into the US stock market open because everyone's freaking out and that that, but this is a good sign. The fact that it held that 7676 K level which is hit a few times again is a good sign. Definitely a good.
Sign I'm curious if you so I've seen more and more of the the bear takes that we would effectively erase the entire Trump pump on Bitcoin basically taking us back to like 66 K. Do you have any targets? On Bitcoin. On Bitcoin, again any lower targets that you think are possible or the levels that you feel the seem seem safer or curious if if that's how you're looking at it or? Feels like it's a really good sign that it hit that level
again. 76 Ki think there'll be a lot of by walls now that 76K level. I don't think we're out of I don't think we're out of the woods though. Like this feels like a a relief rally rather than like, oh, something's going to come and save us. You know what I mean? I think a lot of people are just so used to the COVID situation where it's just like, we're going to turn on the taps, something fundamentally change. We're going to save everyone. No one's coming to save this
market here. It doesn't feel like it. We've just spoken about how Trump's incentives are maybe even to continue this. And we've just spoken about and the Fed basically came out on Friday and said we're not going to help. So your best bet here, in my opinion, is the Chinese central bank, potentially Japanese central bank, potentially European Central Bank, British, you know, the, the, yeah, the British central central bank.
And potentially then we get a, yeah, we get money printing from, from them or money printing by another name. It doesn't feel like the Fed wants to step in here. And that's been, that has been something that has happened since 2008 and it hasn't, doesn't look, it looks like things are going to have to get a lot worse. And the, the, the thing that's interesting, a lot of people have been talking about the fact that, oh, he wants to get the 10 year lower. This is the day where the 10
year is higher. It's gone back to 4.1%. You know, this is going to lead to inflation. It's not easy for the Fed to come and just cut rates. Like Trump keeps on talking about that. But like, it's not easy. Jerome Powell's probably sitting there going like, I'm going to wait and see. Like I, I don't want to cut rates if inflation's going to continue higher. So I would, yeah. I just be wary of, of thinking the Fed is going to save you.
I think you you got to hope weirdly that that you basically see money printing coming out of other countries. I've seen totally two different, totally different schools of thought. Some were saying that a rate hike is even on the cards for 2025. And then you've got like this polling market rate cut market has five cuts at 15% chance. Now let's see four cuts is up to 20%, three cuts at 20%. So, so folks, I think that's in
line with with. Other markets as well that that what 4 to 5 are starting to get priced in over the weekend. I thought I saw, but that's going to continue to be very volatile. I mean, clearly prices are incredibly volatile live as we're speaking. So we were, we were over 80 K. Now we're back at 78 six. So we're just bouncing all over the board. I am curious, you said you had a good weekend trading like is any are are you buying? Are you just scalping?
I know OV came out and shared that he effectively sold an Autoglyph and bought AI16Z, but. I bought I bought far coin on Friday, which has probably been my best trade for the weekend. And then I have just traded around some of the L ones and time some of these moves relatively well getting in and out. So that I've been, I've been definitely more day trading over the last because the swings have been insane. But like the gap down from
Sunday, I largely avoided. And then I bought just before we went live and I just told you to OSF like I was like, I think we're going to bounce here. I've bought a bunch of things. So I've traded well the last few days for sure. It's probably one of my best trading periods for the last three months. Well, you, you love to hear it. I feel like I've been talking about this maybe too much but this far coin strength is just like insane to see. Are we just we're having global market meltdowns?
It's like circuit Breakers are being hit. Yeah, it's good that it's returned to the common like Fintwit, right? It's definitely being spoken about on Fintwit again a lot more, which I think is just interesting because it was a period where it was like, Oh yeah, it's over. But now like, it's like, Oh my God, fart coin is the one thing outperforming the S&P 500. And that's a great story again, so.
Yeah, these things die not from FUD, but in in silence, like the you you want the attention factor. And I mean now, like the mind shares like is quite like is off the charts like cookies still measuring this and they they still have fartcoin in the AI bucket, for what that's worth. But it's it's 30%. Me, me in general, me in general held up OK here in my opinion. SPX as well had a had a decent period here. He's back at still at five, 2500
ish. Those two in particular have held up very well so. Is there, I was thinking about this a little bit over the weekend. Like is, is this a sign of like financial nihilism returning to a degree like, oh, like markets are all fucked there. There's nothing I can do about it. I'm just going to go back to the, the the if I can't buy what considered value assets because they're all going down 5 to 8% per day. Strong stocks are are doing the same. Like, why not just fired into
memes? I don't know. That's just a thought that was crossing my head as I try to wrap my head around why these these memes are outperforming and like these these are the top 2 movers of the entire top 100 crypto tokens right now as far coining SPX, so it's pretty undeniable. Yeah, yeah.
I don't really know. Like it feels like it feels like those two in particular are just going to be like the ones at least in the, in the, in the broader meme point space, those two have been like chosen as the ones that like people want to own on days like today. So yeah, it's. I would tend to agree. The. Question is, does that mean displace? Are they going to displace other traditional memes or are they
just the new editions? I think one of the questions here, it's like, where's Mog Mog's green today? MOG is getting destroyed, yeah. It's 120 million. Wow. Yeah, Mog's been destroyed. Like honestly annihilated so. Perhaps there there is a changing of the guard to a degree here. I think the other chart that's been absolutely destroyed is 8 Bitcoin. I don't know if you've been seeing this, but this morning it it it broke point O2.
Is it point O 1/9? It was 52 ETH for one Bitcoin and I got like where where is the bottom? Like are we going to see 75 to 100 to one? Are there scenarios where that happens? It's just 52 seemed like a far fetched number. On January 1st it was 27 to 1 and now it's 52 to one. Try to pull this up. So we're just kind of running out of words to talk about this at this point in time. Yeah, Ether is dead. It's over. I'm sorry guys, I'm not talking about it.
The amount of airtime that it gets on different shows for this, it's, it's just painful. Like I, I, I talk about this over all the time, but like, it's, yeah, it's just, it's just not been a good hold and, and it's under, it's even underperforming today, right? Underperforming today. So sad, very sad. It's a tough one. It's a tough for my beloved punks Bitcoin ratio, which got
whacked in this E down move. The punk floor held even, but with ETH getting crushed punks back down to 63 K. So now 20% below Bitcoin more actually right now. So not not exactly what we what we wanted to see here. I'll go around the horn. I think that that's a really good summer on the market, man. Thank you for that. It was a quiet weekend. I think a couple headlines that jumped out. One, Tether basically said at the US is not going to embrace USDT, they're going to launch
AUS friendly stable coin. So I think that's perhaps various for Circle. And then Circle also is reportedly, I think this is more tied to some rumors. It hasn't been like they they haven't come out and said this, but now they're thinking about delaying their IPO because of all the effectively because of the FUD from those Coinbase fees and perhaps trying to get better deals lined up to make some of those financials look better. So, yeah, I think, I think it's
a tough time, right. You have a period where they're trying to crash the 10 year, which is basically their business model. And then and you have crypto in general not feeling so great. They probably just don't think they can get that valuation right now. I don't think if you're if you're own circle, I don't, I just don't really know why you're trying so desperately to IPO like you've got this great business, but maybe maybe they desperately need to get out of the stock.
I don't know. Kind of feels like, you know, do you see Tether worrying about IPO ING like 4 billion a year like. Exactly how you. Yeah, exactly. Do you really like desperately need to sell equity in your company? Just just fucking clip the coupon every single year. Dream I I don't feel sorry for Circle executives that missed their IPO window. Like if you needed that, then you need to run your business differently. I think that's a a flooding goal is it's the question of why do
they do this? Is it because they see their business model falling apart as Trump administration tries to bring the, the tenure down, which we'll see if if that's actually going to pan out for them. I guess any, any surprises this morning before we wrap things up? You know, I, I, it seemed like everything was crashing. We're rebounding. It felt like interest rate spiking caught people off guard
this morning. So I guess anything that surprised you or or any final thoughts as we go into the? Just interest rates. Just pay attention to Bitcoin. I think that's the main thing like bit Bitcoin to me, I think it's going to, it's probably going to have another retest above 80 K here. I, I'm, I'm still not of the view that something like Solana is necessarily going to be like a screaming buy for the next couple of weeks. Like I still think that like Bitcoin, Bitcoin is up again
today. So it's approaching 64%. I just, I just feel like that's an up only chart, whatever happens for the next for the next few weeks. Yeah, I think that that's fair. I did hear choose Rich Nick on the Nifty show this morning talking about how he feels like Solana is actually an interesting buy with Bitcoin here just because he he felt like the downside is somewhat capped perhaps in like the 20% range.
It's like if you think 80 is a strong floor for Solana and you can buy it at 100, decent risk reward there just because your your chance to to have it scout back to 140. I mean Seoul was 140 a week and a half ago, right? So you have a chance to catch a bigger move than Bitcoin. But it's at the same time I'm not personally racing to buy Solana. Yeah, I, I, I think it's more like a, this isn't just a Solana thing.
This is like an L1 thing. It's like it feels as though people are leaving crypto right now and those stories can take a long time to come back, right. So, and it's not that I don't think Solana will dominate when they do. It's just more like it's the same reason why ETH is like not trading that well. It's there's so much block space, right. So you've got to hope that like your, your chain stays relevant in a quiet period. And Solana, it feels as though a lot of the activity on there was
was more left curve as well. So I don't know. I really don't know. I think that's fair and also I think watching ETH not have a successful comeback cycle here, I think is also perhaps hurt upside of Solana, rightfully or wrongfully is people saying like this whole next man up, like there's always going to be a next hot chain and maybe you aren't meant to hold these beyond their initial, you know, big cycles. So that that's a real narrative
out there. So I think that's one that, you know, we'll continue to watch, but we'll see. Is it going to be turn around Monday, folks? I don't know, but we're starting to see signs of it. So it looks like the. White House just has the White House just denied that they are delaying tariffs. There was a good time that they might be delaying tariffs, but they just denied it. So we're back down again. Yeah, we'll turn around the other way. So expect more piercing volatility.
I think it is the is the take away. But folks quicker show here on on Monday. We will be back with a longer show tomorrow. That is it. That's going to be our show. I want to thank our listeners, want to thank our partners as always want to thank Amanda. We'll be back tomorrow, 10 AM, 10 AM Eastern. Until then, go make it a great day.