Will the Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Hold?

After more than a year of intense fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, President Biden recently announced a ceasefire, raising hopes that this agreement could save lives, restore stability, and bring an end to the unprecedented escalation that began with the October 7 attacks. But how did this ceasefire come about, and how does it compare to the conclusion of the 2006 war in Lebanon?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that Hezbollah has been set back by decades due to the Israeli military’s strikes. Is this an accurate assessment? What role have external players—like the U.S. and Iran—played in shaping this outcome, and could this moment signal a shift in Iran’s regional calculus?

Perhaps most importantly, does this ceasefire mark a new phase in Israel’s broader security strategy in the region? To help unpack these critical questions, David Makovsky is joined by Amos Harel, one of Israel’s leading military analysts and a senior correspondent for Haaretz. Amos has extensively covered Israel’s northern front and is a keen observer of the country’s military strategies and security leadership.

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