How are you, sir. I'm doing great. Good to be with you.
Good to be with you again.
Hello.
Yeah, I'm told I'm supposed to poke the bear about the NBA Draft lottery. First of all, I mean we just had we just played a clip of Shaquille O'Neil saying that. David Stern said, do you want to be in a cold city or warm city in your NBA career? He said warm, And then two weeks later he was at the Orlando Magic number one pick in the lottery because the Magic won the ping pong balls. Now, of course, Dallas Mavericks make the most unpopular misguided trade maybe in
the history of the NBA. Luca's out of Dallas fans want to burn down the arena and all of a sudden they're going to get the number one pick in Cooper Flag because they had a what point zero whatever it was, chance of getting the number one pick two chance, and they get the number one pick and the lottery over some far more creddy teams. I'm going to ask you first your thoughts on the NBA lottery and whether you think it is maybe, if not rigged, slightly weighted
towards certain results. Sure, and then to the NFL and maybe they possibly needing a lottery.
Yeah, yeah, we kind of discussed this on Friday, So that's maybe that's where the bear poking comes from. But first of all, Shack's comment, as as it's been related to me, does that constitute evidence to anybody?
Like like like.
It does fit in narrative if you're entrenched in the idea that the lottery is fixed, then that would be consistent with that that theory or hypothesis. But it's also would be very consistent with casual small talk. People talk about the weather with strangers, probably amongst the highest topics. So I think that, hey, hey, where do you want
to go? That that doesn't constitute any evidence to me, And I would just ask you, if you're inclined to believe, what make your claim and then give evidence for it.
Well, I thought it was way back in the night the early nineties when the Knicks were just awful. They couldn't even get half a Madison Square garden field. I was going to school in New York and then they get Patrick Ewing in the lottery, and all of a sudden, the Knicks.
Are in the mid eighties.
But yeah, yeah, you're right, late eighties, and all of a sudden, the next eighty five yep, go into the NBA finals and their conference finals every year. That was the first time I started to wait a minute, how the next one? And I don't think they were. They were better than two percent chance to win the lottery that year, but I'm going and dating myself way back to the eighties for that, and then I've just kind of forgotten about the NBA since that, especially since two
thousand and eight. So that's why I've kind of been stuck on the NBA lottery. But obviously you don't think it is, and most people don't, and probably likely it's not fixed.
But yeah, well I would just say this to me because I didn't want to. I didn't want to knock down a straw man argument. I think to fortify the argument, it sounds something like this. Tell me if you agree that over the course of forty one lotteries, there are four five of those lotteries where one would say, if if the motivation is either what's best for the league or to quote, do a solid for some owner to help some team, that the the league would endeavor to rig the lottery for those motives?
Is that right?
And then as evidence we for that, we we can point to four or five different years where we say, boy, that looks awful suspicious. That would certainly that that particular year certainly is consistent with the hypothesis that the NBA is willing and able to execute a rig loggery a lottery.
Do I do I have it?
Is that?
Is that?
Is that a fair representation of the argument?
Yeah? I think so?
Okay, So let's weigh that against some other factors. And and even if we just said, forget like in a criminal case, the burden of proof is beyond a reasonable doubt. Let's just take a civil burden of proof, which is proponents of the evidence, uh, you know, fifty percent plus a feather. Is it more likely that the that the NBA lottery is rigged or is it more likely not? And let's just consider some facts. Let's just consider the
risk involved. You're talking about federal violations. This is felony fraud. And so Adam Silver, who I can't think of a lot better jobs in the world than being a sports commissioner. Adam Silver has a pretty cool job. Is he willing to risk of federal charges and being in prison?
Okay?
Are the and and you're talking about a twelve billion dollar per year into per year industry that would literally crumble on its foundation if it was supposed to be fraudulent? Are are are the participants? Are the owners involved in this?
Like?
Who knows?
Here's another okay, So how about the execution? Who knows if Adam Silver wants to do a favor for the Mavericks? Who else knows? Does Is it the guy who's fixing the ping pong balls? Is he the only other one and knows? How is Adam Silver communicating with him? Is that by text? By email, by a phone conversation that could be could be recorded? You're opening yourself up for extortion in in in such a theory, I mean, are there do the do some of the do all of
the owners know? Does the one who's getting the favor? If you like, like I guess you know Cuban doesn't own the Mavericks anymore? But whoever owns the does he know? And then if he knows, did the prior guys who are beneficiary know? And do they talk them see each other? And what if you own the jazz? Are you sitting there saying wait, a minute, It's my turn. I want Hooper flag. We had a far worse record than the Mavericks. You tell me he's just gonna be okay with this.
Yeah, the NBA tell him you're in Salt Lake City, nobody, and.
Then he's supposed to just shut up. I mean, are are so the people that know We've never had any whistleblowers, never any deathbed confessions like the running the risk for this? Do we do we even understand the difficulty in how this is executed when when they pull the ping pong balls. Uh, look, I understand the Patrick ewing. You know the frozen envelope eight that was that was year one. So so you say, well, maybe this thing is corrupt, and and maybe maybe David
Stern frozen himself or only had one assistant frozen. You know that they're you could tilt your your head and and and and maybe try and concoct but you still have the issue of the risk. But now moving on forty one years later that we have we have ping pong balls just like they have in the state lotteries. We got twenty media members that are watching the ping ball pung balls being fooled, like, like, how do we execute this, this fix we how do we change the
ping pong balls? Do we lie about what got pulled up? And again who knows who's in on the conspiracy? I just and then further and the final point is is look at all the years where if you're of the mind level, well, hey, I can point to four or five years.
Why did why did.
Why?
You say, Patrick Ewing and Luka Doncic, All right, that book nds the first one and the most recent one. But tell me why would Lebron James go to Cleveland? Well, he's from Cleveland. Well, show me one other player that has benefited you know, it goes to geographically desirable.
What about?
Why would Wemby probably the second the second best prospect in the lottery era, next to Lebron? Why on earth would Wenby go to San Antonio, the twenty fourth biggest market out of twenty eight, to a team that's already won five championships? What benefit? How does that benefit the league? Why would Cleveland get back.
To back.
First picks? Would or why would Shack go to Orlando? And then the very next year Orlando gets Chris Weber? They get number one back to back Like all of these if you're of the mind like I can I can point to four or five picks that seem to be consistent with the lottery fix hypothesis. Well, I can, that's only ten percent. I can show you another thirty five that it makes no sense. So I think, I
think I'll just summarize this. If if, if the theory, if the lottery fixed theory or hypothesis is based only on the evidence that we can point to a handful of picks that kind of seem convenient, and we to we do not address any of those questions that I just raised, then I find that hypothesis, that theory to be completely impotent.
Jackson felt, I think I speak on behalf of all the listening audience and saying thanks a lot.
That was.
That was if we're talking about like debate class, if we're talking about like you know, get up and make a case like I think you just threw the kitchen sink out of you.
I'm not well, I'm just getting started. There's a lot more in terms.
Of the odds.
Okay, it's all good. I invite a retort.
I don't.
I don't want to do it. I honestly, this is the truth.
This is my honest truth. I don't care about the NBA enough to retort. I really don't, Okay, but you've seem to imply you were fearist, So I'm I'm I'm eager to engage said Federal Courthouse downtown and heard the arguments that ended up getting David Stern in the NBA out of seat.
I'm done with you.
I think I'm more interested to know if the NF fellow should have one, because it's.
Exactly avoid tanking. That's and it's you. We've talked about this.
It's so hard in the NFL to tank because you've got players who are trying to put they're trying to get a contract for next year. They don't have to guaranteed deal, most of them beyond the current year. To me, tanking doesn't happen in the NFL because of that reason alone, the lack of guarantee contracts. But do you think it needs a lottery the NFL? Uh?
I don't think it needs a lottery?
Would it?
Would the NFL be better?
Well?
I do think that there's you know, you know, like there's already discussion about you know, you've got arts manning and you know is Cleveland or the Saints or somebody, you know the Saints, you know, Arts Manning is from New Orleans. Uh, are they going to make decisions that seem to suggest that they're tanking? That's possible. I would
I would be okay. I'm put it this way. It's not a forefront of mind for me on issues Like forefront to me is like have full time officials, uh, you know, take away the push push you know, uh uh you know, go back to to uh outlawing that that ridiculous play like. So I've got other things that are more important. But I'd be okay with the lottery. But I think that's there's a few things they should do.
I think the ping pong ball. The States have been doing lotteries a lot more than sports leagues, and the States, the States and the Omega, they all do ping pong balls. So what I would just do is is have it on live TV. It used to be with the NBA. So I think that, you know, just sitting there with the you know you you wait, the ping pong balls. I think they've got that right, and then whatever ping pong ball pulls up in some order, what what have you?
I think only the most, I don't know, just jaded of fans would think that there is a fixing on this. I mean, just to point to one, one flimsy piece of evidence and ignore dozens of other very sub sanitials.
I'm back, I'm back, I'm back.
Sorry, I just you know what happened exactly.
You know what happened is I started thinking, are we gonna have this nonsense, this these nonsense accusations.
Wh the NFL.
I'm gonna say what I said seventeen years ago. Let me get back to something you just run in the military. I'm trying to I'm trying to run point on the any seriously you are and you're doing a hell of a job.
Well, let me get back idiously about the NFL perspective, NFL lottery.
I agree, I agree with that, But something you just said I got to get back to. Why ban the toush push? Why not get good at defending it? Or why not every offensive coordinator do the same thing.
And if you are tired of the touch push and don't like it, stop it, figure out what to do about that.
Okay, can you mat them another play that?
I mean, just because someone's good at it.
Let's contextualize this for a second. So from nineteen twenty to and now I don't have the rule, but in front of me, I had it on a prior segment. That okay, So the assisting the runner was impermissible for eighty four years. So the tuss push the original idea
of football is no, we like think of this. Let's let's have a component of assists that we would all disagree you shouldn't do if you took let's say you had a little tiny half back at one hundred and ten pounds, put give him the ball and then have two big, strong guys just you know, heave him over the line like you do with a kid in a swimming pool, just toss him over line into the end zone. Well,
we say, that's kind of nonsense, that's not football. Well that was that's been impermissible starting in nineteen twenty and all the way up to today. Well, pushing from behind was deemed to be impermissible as well. It's it's an assist that is not common to the game, or should not be should not be common to the game, And it was impermissible for eighty four years. And so you say, well, why did it change? What happened is is you go back,
because I've studied this. What happened is is there was like one or two times per year where they, you know, a blockdown field where it was kind of hard. They was deemed to be hard to officiate, like at ten yards is he really pushing from the behind or is he blocking the defender?
And so they just said, well, let's just.
Pull it out altogether, the part about pushing, and that happened in two thousand and four, and nobody even blake nothing. There was no consequence, not in twenty fourteen, not ten years later. It wasn't until about fifteen years fifteen, sixteen years later where the Eagles they started to say, well, wait a minute, let's use this to advantage. This was never the intention in two thousand and four. It was
just to clean up, make it easier to effiiciate. It was not the attention in twenty twenty, excuse me, nineteen twenty when the rules were made.
It was not the intention.
In nineteen sixty seven, the first Super Bowl, It was not the intention during the eighties when the forty nine ers, like, it's never been the intention up until it's just evolved in the manner the sequence I described to this ridiculous play that's not football, it's rugby. So let's just go back to how we had viewed the play for eighty four years.
And I agree with you there.
If you're going to make it illegal, then make all eighting of all runners illegal. And you're right, that's what I grew up officiating. It would still only be a five year penalty by the way it was really, but.
Yeah, it's very between five and ten throughout the years. Yes, I agree that, then eliminate all of it. But to just target one specific play, I think you got to rewrite the whole world book to say no aiding of the runner whatsoever. And then that I agree with you, and then that I can see him doing. Know if it's going to happen next week when they vote at the spring meetings in Minneapolis.
But that would be the equitable fix, would it not. Let's just go back to what it was for eighty four Just.
Go back to what it was.
Yeah, just just go back to a two thousand rule book that's exactly you know, or right, or as recently as two thousand, two thousand and three. Just go back to the two thousand and three rule book that's back in the You know, this isn't eighteen times, These aren't level leather helmets. This is Shawn Alexander, you know, like nobody could push Alexander from behind Nord Matt hasselback like where this isn't like some cock and many uh you know,
untried uh vision of football. This is just what we You know, you don't even have to be my age or I know, Greg you're younger me, but more or less our age. You don't have to be our age to remember Jackson. You can you can remember well an era when it was impermissible.
Wh yeah, man.
And the curious thing is it was so significant, insignificant that that that essentially I call I use the term dormant. The rule laid dormant for fifteen years, like the I should say, the rule change laid dormant. And the whole idea behind removing that portion of the rule book it was never to incentivize the tuss push.
It was just to make it easier to officially officiate.
When you do kind of do get those scrums ten fifteen yards down the field, you say, well, hey that you know Steve Hutchinson came in to block somebody, but he kind of hit us the soulder of Seawan. Alexander did that soulder? You know, was that purposeful or was that inadvertent? And and yet Alexander he did benefit from Hutchinson pushing. And then they said, well, that's kind of hard to officiate.
Well let's just pull it out of the rule book. That's that's how it that's how it happened.
Thank you, sir for the context, because I think that is important and your's very important.
He just fix it back to where it was then to fix because it wasn't it. Look, you know, it's hard to officiate pass interference bang bang. That happens all the time, and it happens in significant place. We had We had generations, decades upon decades, scores of years were we're eating a runner.
Was not a difficult you know, in any meaningful sense whatsoever.
It was not difficult.
Next time I talk to you, I get to ask you about Jalen Miller. And while you're shaking your head when I said the CX are going to draft him, that's hours before they did. But I didn't get a.
Chance to do that.
Don't time time, no time, Thank you? Was I shaking my head because they shouldn't, or thought I don't think they will, gentlemen as they should not. That's what I thought it was. But we'll get to that next time. Okay, Rock and Roll, thanks you man.
Appreciate me. Hugh Milling as only he can. I tried to get him off the NBA, what can I do? And they brought him back to But he makes a really good point about the original context of the NFL and what made the Toush push legal. The NFL owners are a meeting next week in Minneapolis and it supposedly will vote on this. It was tabled in the last the owners meetings in March, but they could vote on it next week, so we may have a was tush
Bush legal illegal? And as we just said, the easy way is just go back to the way it was for eighty four years up to two thousand and four. Gears up to the first place Mariners. They're in Chicago. They just coming off a sweep of San Diego. They're up by two and a half games in the American League West. Luke Arkins Mariners, consigli Air newsletter, frequent guests of mine on the show. I used to have in the station. He's gonna join us next and at five
o'clock we're gonna talk more about the Seahawks. We're gonna get off the text line. May maybe answer the phones live on the air. Your chance to be live on the air two of six, two eight, six, ninety five, ninety five. Or if you don't want to be on the air, go to the text line or the iHeartRadio talkback app, press the red button and leave your question for the Seahawks will answer that. At five o'clock five thirty four, arm Wall you a great friend of mine.
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Podcasting live from the R and R Foundation Specialist broadcast studio. Now back to Saftie and Dick powered by Emerald Queen Casino, the Betty and Capital of the Northwest on Sports Radio ninety three point three kJ r FM.
Welcome back, Greg Bell, The news should be in with Jackson Felts with you instead of Dave Southmaller and Dick Fame.
Dick is about to cover The Storm.
He played by play on the CW television for The Storm, playing at Pagebreckers in Dallas, Page Beckers Second n W NBA Game five Am Dave Softie Mahler's in Greece.
Jackson tells me gallivanting traveling. As long has he been there?
I just got there. I want to say today long.
Well he looked thirty one hours of flights apparently, what so, Yeah, he's been watching Star Wars. He texts me, every you can get to Europe in about ten I think I think he said thirty one hours of traveling. Sorry, but it's still he's been watching Star Wars content I think for about twenty five out of thirty one hours.
So he needs a new travel a thirty hours to Europe.
Man Luke Argan my favorite Navy guy. Luke Argan's had him on the show quite a bit. Mariners Can Stickular, our newsletter author had him on my show quite a bit when I had it for the last year or so. In the morning, he joins us the Beacon Plumbing Hotline to talk about the first place Mariners and Luke. It feels like Groundhog Day to me, Hello, servant, we're talking in May about the first place Mariners again.
Yeah, just like last year, we're in first place on the end of April and the May and the June and all the way to the All Star break and then things kind of fell apart.
It.
Need we remember that. Good to talk to you again, Luke.
Okay, So I to you Jackson, and I at the start said I posited this and tell me if you agree, Luke, and you got the numbers behind it. Luke Arkins, big analytical guy, gets all the numbers. Breakdown, Luke, is this more this two and a half game lead right now over the trash Cans in mid May? Is that more sustainable than the ten game lead the Mariners had in June. That sounds counterintuitive, but we all know the Mariners were doing it with a complete smoke and mirror show on offense.
Last year into June. The pitching was lights out and they were only winning because they were winning two zero and two to one and one nothing. The way, the offense is top ten and almost every major category statistically. Would you say, perhaps this lead is more sustainable in this team is more sustainable success because of how the offense is playing.
Or are you still Jerry's still out on this.
Jerry's still out on it. For me, the offense is definitely better, there's no doubt about that. Whether all the guys that are producing can continue to produce at the level they are is really the question mark with this offense. I mean, Jorge Polanco was rivaling Aaron Judges just a couple of weeks ago, and now he has really cooled off a lot in May, and then I think it's fair to say that Dylan Warren is probably going to cool off a little bit. And we do know that
Julio will heat up. I think that's already started, and that's a good thing. But when you look at their offense, there are a lot of guys overperforming their recent averages, their their career averages, and so you have to wonder, is that, like a guy like cal Rawley, is he just taking the next step or is it or JP Crawford sort of returning to where he was two years ago? Ranio rose Arena is slightly more productive than he has been.
Maybe that's sustainable, But then like Dylan Moore and Hargate, Polanco and even Rowdy Ples, like those guys are overperforming where they've been recently.
Is that.
Sustainable. I have doubts about that.
Luke Argan's Mariners considering our newsletter joining us on the Beacon plumbing hotline, and Luke, let me break it down well even the sustainability piece on offense, let me break it down even more. The Mariners are top ten in the major leagues and run scored slugging percentage ops RBIs and on base percentage there's sixth and home runs second in the American League only the Yankees and their van box part they're fifth, and walks eighth in stolen bases,
which blows my mind. What of all those numbers and maybe even more advanced metrics you have, what is offensively sustainable?
In particular, do you think with the lineup they have and what is not and who's going to vanish?
Well? I think the strikeout part is I don't think you mentioned strikeout person, but that is that is huge. You know, I'm actually trying to write a piece this week about that and how much is that sustainable? And again, you know, Polanco is having a career year in strikeouts, He's having his best strikeout the lowest strikeout right ever, it's I think it's about eighteen percent lower than past year,
so that is a big change. But when you look across there are guys like Cal Rawley and Jose excuse me, Julio Rodriguez, and Luke Raley although he's hurt right now, even Dylan Mover I just mentioned, all of them are striking out less often than they had in the past, and that's a good thing. I think that's a good part for their sustaining their offense. But I know you
don't like to talk about that. You don't like to talk about the ballpark, but the ballpark does matter for this team, and they're scoring a run more per game on the road, and there their overall numbers on the road are are are much better than at home, but fifty points better and average ZBP and slug. So you know that's that's well, that's just the way it is with this team. That's always going to be the way it is.
They've played forty five games going into the three game series it's going to begin in Chicago, they have four hundred and four strikeouts.
To your point, Luke Parkins.
You and I talked a lot last year when they were ten to eleven strikeouts a game, so right that alone is as you said, the fact that they are having productive outs, ball and playouts rather than ball and catchers met outs that can change innings and games, can and not can that alone, lower strikeout fewer strikeouts alone make this team a better off defense, just single handedly, because they're at least putting the ball in play and moving runners.
I think so their record is much better when they strike out less than nine times. I had it written down here. I think they're let's see, they're seventeen and eleven when they strike out less nine or less times.
Not even exactly a low bar either.
No, it's not. That's only about the middle of the league.
You think last year they were terrible. They struck out ten or more times more than any team in the league, and therefore they struck out nine or fewer less than every team in the league. But yeah, their record is significally better when they striked out nine or fewer times in the game. That doesn't mean you can't win games, and you can still lose them, but you're more competitive. There's better opportunities, obviously.
Logan Evans, what are you saying from Logan Evans to us out of nowhere? Perhaps you had your eye on him but what are the metrics, what are analytics? What are they saying about this guy should stay around.
When they're I don't know if he's going to stick around once uh once to get the get Logan Gilbert back and George Kirby and Pryce Miller. I don't He'll be gone there pretty quickly. He's he had a good game the other day, but overall his metrics are not great. I mean, just basic stuff is the opponents are hitting two eighty six against them, so that's slugging four o five. So that's that would be that would be good for
a hitter that would would be really happy. We had a man who's hit two eighty six and slugging four o five, So that's not good when the pitcher's running into that. But then again, look at it this way. You've lost three starters, top line starters out of your rotation. You still have a guy that can come up and be subviceable for a month or so. That's exactly what you want from him. And Emerson Hancock to a lesser degree.
I mean, I Emerson is a better, I think a better pitcher, but it's the same point that that you got these guys that you can call upon to fill the holes and you get the other guys back. And it does look like people'll get all three guys back.
What about Ben Williamson, I mean, out of nowhere a third baseman, he's only hitting two twenty eight, But I like what I see every time he plays.
They do them.
They're doing the platoon thing Master Bony started yesterday. Are you thinking maybe Williamson somebody should just be the third basemen or you like the platoon there.
I'd rather have somebody at third base. I think Williamson is an excellent defender, and you know, to be fair, he's only played in twenty seven games and he seems to be struggling quite a bit. At some point, do you consider sending him back down to let him work on his craft? On his craft? Master Boney is very good defensively and play around the field a little bit,
which is very helpful. But he's not providing anything with his bat either, So those two together are not giving you much at the plate, although they're giving you excellent defense in the field. So I guess it's a trade off of everybody else is hitting. You can live in a position that's maybe below average hitting, but it's above average a defense.
Luke, it's great to talk to you again.
I'm sorry, I'm short on time. We gotta let you go, but go Army beat Navy. Thanks a lot.
We'll talk to soon, all right. Man, think Luke Carket's former Navy man, got always tagging for that. But he he's bigg into the numbers and he spared to some of his deep, deep dives. But he can go deep on the Mariners' strikeout totals, and I knew he was going to bring that up right away as a big, big factor to compare this offense to twenty twenty four and twenty three. Next, your chance to be a part
of the show of the textimonials. You're gonna get another chance to be part of the show at five o'clock. I'm opening the phone lines at two oh six to eight, six ninety five ninety five. You're gonna ask Seahawks questions of me as we do a Seahawks segment from five until five thirty. But up next your chance to be a part of the show and the textimonials five thirty four hundred logs. He's going to talk Stanley Cup playoffs from TSN and Canada. I'm a great friend of mine
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