Dairy Insights: Heard Mentality

Episode 51 - When will the dairy market turn?

We've seen sharp drops in dairy prices, is there any reason to be bullish right now? When will the market start to turn higher?

Episode 50 - Bearish Gulf Food

Market talk at Gulf Foods, one of the largest global food trade fairs, was mostly bearish, centered on when is the dairy market going to bottom out.

Episode 49 - What is happening in the cattle market?

U.S. dairy farmers have been earning more and more of their income from the sale of calves and slaughter cows over the past 3 years. Gavin McPherson joins me to talk about what drove the cattle market to record high levels and what he makes of the 10% selloff we saw in the second half of October.

Episode 48 - Plenty of milk in NZ but tight in AU

Dustin Winston was in Australia and Singapore and attended the SGX-NZX conference and talks about what he heard about milk production for New Zealand and Australia as well as Chinese demand.

Episode 47 - New OTC Swaps for EU WPC and FFMP

StoneX has announced a new partnership to add dairy prices reported by Expana to StoneX Plus and launch OTC swaps that will settle to some of those prices. With demand for WPC and fat filled milk powder (FFMP) the industry has been looking for ways to manage the price risk with these products.

EU Dairy Demand Weakening

We held our annual EU outlook conference in Dublin Ireland last week and the sentiment was very bearish for the European dairy market. The supply side has received a lot of attention, but demand also seems to be softening. I talk to John Lancaster about the conference and supply and demand dynamics.

Episode 45 - U.S. Butter Price Collapses, Cheese Next?

Summary: The CME spot butter price fell 17% during August hitting the lowest levels of 2025. I talk with Dave Kurzawski about the declines in butter and whether cheese prices are next.

Episode 44 - EU Butter and Cheese Prices Down

Summary: We've seen OTC cheese and butter prices for the fourth quarter drop about 10% from their recent highs as milk production in Europe, and elsewhere, turns out better than expected and demand may be softening. Fearghal McCabe talks about the EU market and whether we'll see prices rebound as buyers come back from summer holidays.

Episode 43 - GDT Prices and the Fat Market

GDT results last week were mixed with AMF prices up but butter prices down and WMP prices counter seasonally increasing. Nate Donnay talks with Niall Alsafi about GDT and what is driving the divergent price action.

Episode 42 - Lumpy Skin Disease in the EU

We can now add Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) to the list of diseases impacting dairy cows in Europe along with Bluetongue and Foot and Mouth (FMD). John Lancaster shares details on the discovery of LSD in late June, the spread since then and what we should expect going forward.

Episode 41 - Are dairy futures driving the spot market

CME spot cheese and butter prices have rallied almost 40 cents a pound and 30 cents a pound from their recent lows to their peaks last week. Dave Kurzawski joins me to talk about the market move and what is driving it.

Episode 40 - US and EU Cheese Markets

We've seen a significant rally in U.S. spot cheese and future prices and some significant strength in deferred EU OTC prices. Desmond Strelzow joins me to talk about the EU market and I talk through the drivers behind the U.S. strength and where I think the market is going.

Episode 39 - EU Butter and Cheese Markets Still Have Buy Side Support

EEX butter futures have been trending a little lower, but every time they dip, buyers seem to show up. We've seen a similar pattern for cheese but EEX SMP has been on a straight trend lower. I talk to Fearghal McCabe about the EU markets and whether they can stay at a big premium to the U.S.

Episode 38 - GDT_SGX Rally and Growth in Chinese Milk Production

YiFan Li comes on to talk about the strength we've seen in GDT/SGX prices and NBS data suggesting milk production in China was up 1.7% during the first quarter.

Episode 37 - Whats Up and Down in the US Dairy Market

This week I talk to Dave Kurzawski about the U.S. spot and futures markets and the impact that tariffs or threats of tariffs have had.

Episode 36 - Foot and Mouth Spreading in Europe?

During March there were 2 new cases of FMD in Hungary and 5 new ones in Slovakia. Florian Hildebrand joins me to discuss the spread of FDM and what we know about the impacts on the dairy markets.

Episode 35 - NZ Developments and FMD in Hungary

A second case of foot and mouth disease has been discovered in Europe and John Lancaster discusses what he saw and heard around weather and milk production in New Zealand and a partnership we have to bring a focus on margins and hedging to NZ dairy farmers.

Episode 34 - Gulfood and Global Dairy Demand

We got a pulse check on global dairy demand with Gulfood and the ONIL tender last week. It's not time for the defibrillator yet, but things aren't great.

Episode 33 - Mexico and the NFDM_SMP Market

NFDM and SMP prices across the major dairy exporters were all lower this week. Alfredo Resendiz Rojo has been in contact with buyers and traders of NFDM in Mexico and gives his view of the market.

Episode 32 - EU Dairy Markets Softening

We've seen choppy but downward trending price action in EEX butter and SMP futures. Fearghal McCabe comes on to talk about what he is seeing in the EU dairy markets.

Episode 31 - IDFA Sentiment and Corn Rally

The annual IDFA Dairy Forum took place this week with record attendance and plenty of talk about the dairy markets. Kyle Schrad shares his take aways and thoughts on the recent rally in corn futures.

Episode 30 - GDT Rally, China and SEA Demand 1

GDT prices were up this week, Chinese imports for December were stronger than expected and government statistics suggest Chinese milk production was down 9.1% in Q4. YiFan Li was in China two weeks ago and comes on to talk about it all.

Episode 29 - Foot and Mouth Disease in Germany

Foot and Mouth Disease has been detected in Germany which has both supply and demand implications for the dairy markets globally. John Lancaster and Aurelien Houitte join me to talk about what we know and what the implications are.

Episode 28 - 2025 Dairy Markets are Starting Strong

Episode 27 - Record Drop in California Milk Production

Milk production in California during November was down 9.2% from last year which was a record decline. Dave Kurzawski talks about impacts for the markets and some big picture predictions for 2025.

Episode 26 - EU Markets Weaker Ahead of Year End 1

Milk production in Europe is growing again, both year-over-year and seasonally while buyers are stepping away from the market for the year-end holidays. Desmond Strelzow talks about the weakness we're seeing across most dairy prices in Europe right now.

Episode 25 - Surprising GDT and ONIL_Vinamilk Tenders

Will GDT WMP break the $4,000 mark? YiFan Li discusses the surprising GDT Event results and we talk about the ONIL and Vinamilk tenders that just wrapped up.

Episode 24 - Mexico NFDM Demand

Alfredo Resendiz-Rojo leads our efforts to develop dairy risk management in Latin America. This week he comes on the podcast to talk about Brazil and what he is hearing about Mexican demand for NFDM.

Episode 23 - Gulf Food and India's Dairy Exports

Episode 22 - The incredibly orderly collapse in Class III