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Modern Vulnerability Management: Predictive Cybersecurity

Feb 22, 202519 min
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Episode description

Modern Vulnerability Management: Predictive Cybersecurity is a Book by Roytman and Bellis that offers a data-driven approach to vulnerability management. It emphasizes risk-based vulnerability management (RBVM), using machine learning and data science to prioritize and predict vulnerabilities most likely to be exploited. The book covers various data sources, mathematical models (including logistic regression and neural networks), and metrics for measuring the effectiveness of remediation strategies. It also discusses building a scalable system for RBVM, aligning internal teams, and achieving a steady-state workflow. Finally, the book explores the future of vulnerability management, including the potential of XDR and the need for improved data sharing.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

All right, let's dive into this risk based vulnerability management RBV RBVM. Yeah, you know how it works, why it matters, why it matters?

Speaker 2

Right?

Speaker 1

Yeah, what you can actually like do with this knowledge. We've got excerpts.

Speaker 3

From our Modern vulnerability managern Vulnerability Management Predictive Cybersecurity.

Speaker 2

By Michael Reutman and Ed Bellis.

Speaker 1

Hey, yeah, Rutman and Bellis. They really get into the nitty gritty of how organizations are shifting from just like counting vulnerability understanding risk. Yeah, understanding the risks they pose crucial change. Yeah. Instead of just trying to patch every single software weakness, you're you're focusing on the ones that that could really hurt your organization.

Speaker 2

That's it.

Speaker 1

That makes a lot of sense. Okay, so let's set the stage here.

Speaker 2

Remember the Echo fax breach.

Speaker 1

Yeah, the Equofax breach back in twenty seventeen, millions of people had their credit.

Speaker 2

Reports compromise, a major wake up call, huge And the thing is they knew about the vulnerability, oh wow, but they didn't fit it in time. They were drowning in vulnerabilities. Makes sense, no effective way to prioritize.

Speaker 1

That's where RBVM comes in, right, it's about having a system to figure out which ones are the most critical to fix first. But before we get into the how, let's define some key terms here. What exactly is a vulnerability and how's that like different from a threat or a risk?

Speaker 2

Okay? Think of a vulnerability as a weakness in a system, like a loose brick in a wall. That loose brick is the vulnerability, got it the potential for someone to exploit it, That's the threat, okay. And the overall likelihood of someone pushing on that brick giving way damage and the damage that would cause that's the risk.

Speaker 1

Okay. So the vulnerability is the weakness itself, threat is the possibility of someone exploiting it, and risk is the combination of like, how likely that is and how bad the consequences would be.

Speaker 2

That's it.

Speaker 1

So with RBVM, we're not just fixing every loose brick. We're figuring out which ones need a media attention. And this concept of assessing and managing risk.

Speaker 2

Has been around for centuries.

Speaker 1

It has been around forever.

Speaker 2

The book talks about ancient Babylonian merchants.

Speaker 1

Wow, really, they.

Speaker 2

Used to take out bottomery loans.

Speaker 1

What's up?

Speaker 2

They'd bet on their ships making it back safely.

Speaker 1

Okay.

Speaker 2

If the ship sank, the loan was void.

Speaker 1

Interesting.

Speaker 2

If it arrived, they paid back the loan with interest.

Speaker 1

Fascinating. So even back then people were thinking about risk. That's just in a different context.

Speaker 2

Different context.

Speaker 1

Yeah, it's it makes you realize that this isn't some new fangled idea, right, we're just applying it to the digital world now, that's it. Another great example.

Speaker 2

Abraham Wald, mathematician, World War Two. Okay, figuring out where to reinforce armour on planes.

Speaker 1

So you'd think they would just look at where the bullet holes were, right, you would think that seems logical, But.

Speaker 2

Wald realized the planes were turning with damage to certain areas were actually the lucky ones. The planes that didn't make it back likely shot down because of damage to the areas where they weren't seeing bullet holes.

Speaker 3

Oh, so the data was misleading exactly the truly critical spot.

Speaker 1

So the data they were looking at was telling like an incomplete story.

Speaker 2

Absolutely.

Speaker 1

That's a great example of how important it is to look beyond the obvious, right, use data to uncover those hidden risks.

Speaker 2

That's right.

Speaker 1

Okay, so we've established that risk management has you know, a long history, long history, and we've got our key terms kind of you know, sort of, But how do we actually measure and manage.

Speaker 2

Risk in the world of cybersecurity?

Speaker 3

In the world of cybersecurity, data data, data data RBVM needs a lot of it.

Speaker 2

Okay, we're talking vulnerability databases like the National Vulnerability Database MVD. Oh yeah, the MVD encyclopedia of known software weaknesses.

Speaker 1

I can imagine. That's a pretty hefty encyclopedia is constantly getting updated constantly. So that's one piece of the puzzle, knowing what vulnerabilities are out there, right, what else do we need?

Speaker 2

We need to know who the attackers are, their tactics, and what they're after.

Speaker 1

So threat intelligence, threat intelligence exactly like having intel on your adversaries.

Speaker 2

That's it.

Speaker 1

Okay, we're keeping tabs on the bad guys.

Speaker 2

And lastly, we need to know what we have to protect.

Speaker 1

Okay, so asset inventory, ACID inventory, what devices, software systems are in our organization? That right makes sense. If you don't know what you have, how can you protect it?

Speaker 2

It can't.

Speaker 1

It's like taking inventory before you install a security system in.

Speaker 2

Your home, precisely.

Speaker 1

But here's where it gets tricky MESSI all this data is coming from different places. It can be messy, it can we need a way to make sense of it all. We do turn it into actionable insights.

Speaker 2

Actionable insights, and.

Speaker 1

I bet that's where machine learning comes in.

Speaker 2

You got it.

Speaker 1

It's it's all the rage these days.

Speaker 2

It is.

Speaker 1

It's like having a superpowered analyst.

Speaker 2

Crunching through mountains of data.

Speaker 1

Yeah, to help us see the patterns, prioritize vulnerabilities.

Speaker 2

That need our attention first.

Speaker 1

Okay, I'm intrigued. So I've got the data and we're using machine learning to kind of, you know, make sense of it. Right, But how do we know if RBVM strategy is actually working?

Speaker 2

Metrics? Metrics Okay, coverage and efficiency Oka. Coverage means we're fixing the right vulnerability.

Speaker 1

So ones that actually pose a real threat.

Speaker 2

That's it. Efficiency is about how effectively we're doing.

Speaker 1

That, making sure we're not wasting resources.

Speaker 2

Chasing after minor issues. Right, It's like triage in an emergency room. Okay, you focus on the most critical cases first, makes sense. And speaking of critical vulnerability.

Speaker 1

Debt, oh yeah, that's a that's a good one.

Speaker 2

Every vulnerability we choose not to fix immediately adds to this debt, and just like financial debt, it can accrue interest over time.

Speaker 1

That sounds like a recipe for trouble.

Speaker 2

It can be down the line, it can be.

Speaker 1

So how do we balance tackling the urgent vulnerabilities with like managing this this growing.

Speaker 2

Debt prioritization, good understanding of the potential consequence consequences. Right, But let's get back to that machine learning magic. Okay, yeah, we were talking about.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I'm curious about that.

Speaker 2

How exactly does it help us prioritize? Yeah, well, different types of machine learning, okay, supervised learning.

Speaker 1

Supervised learning like.

Speaker 2

Showing a detective a bunch of examples of criminals and saying, go find more that look like this.

Speaker 1

Okay.

Speaker 2

We feed the algorithm information about past exploits, right, it learns to predict which new vulnerabilities are most likely to be targeted.

Speaker 1

So it's all about pattern recognition, spotting the red flags that say, hey, this vulnerability is ripe for exploitation.

Speaker 2

Right. And then we have unsupervised learning. Unsupervised more like giving the detective a pile of evidence okay, saying see what you can find?

Speaker 1

Okay, So it's more exploratory, right, potentially uncovering connections that we that we might have missed otherwise.

Speaker 2

And there's specific algorithms can use algorithms okay, like logistic regression.

Speaker 3

Logistic regression neural network Logistic regression is great for answering yes, no questions like is.

Speaker 1

This vulnerability likely to be exploited?

Speaker 2

Exactly?

Speaker 1

Okay, So it's giving us a simple, straightforward prediction. What about.

Speaker 2

Neural networks more complex okay, able to make more nuanced predictions based on a wider range of factors. It it's like asking, on a scale of one to ten, okay, how likely is this vulnerability to be exploited?

Speaker 1

And what are the contributing factors?

Speaker 2

Exactly?

Speaker 1

Okay, So it's giving us a more detailed risk assessment.

Speaker 2

It is.

Speaker 1

This is all starting to make sense, but it still seems pretty technical. We've got all this data, these fancy algorithms we do, but who's actually doing the work of fixing these vulnerabilities.

Speaker 2

That's where we get into the human side of our BVM just as important as the technical side.

Speaker 1

Okay.

Speaker 2

Strong collaboration between security and IT, security and IT teams.

Speaker 1

Yeah, yeah, I can see how that could get tricky. Because security is focused on identifying the risks right, it is tasked with.

Speaker 2

Patching them exactly.

Speaker 1

It seems like there's potential for miscommunication and delays absolutely and things like.

Speaker 2

Additionally, there's been a silo mentality between these teams.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I've seen that.

Speaker 2

But for OURBVM to work effectively.

Speaker 1

They need to be on the same page.

Speaker 2

Security and it.

Speaker 1

Yeah, working together seamlessly, seamlessly, So how do we break down those silos?

Speaker 2

Clear communication is key, okay, regular meetings, share dashboards, integrated ticketing systems okay, anything that keeps everyone in the loop right, ensures smooth handoffs, handoffs. Yeah, we also need share goals and metrics.

Speaker 1

Shared goals and metrics, okay.

Speaker 2

Both teams should be working towards the same KPIs.

Speaker 1

Like reducing vulnerability DEBT.

Speaker 2

Reducing vulnerability debt okay, Improving remediation velocity.

Speaker 1

Mediation velocity.

Speaker 2

It's a measure of how quickly an organization can fix vulnerabilities.

Speaker 1

Got it once they're identical, let's are identified, okay.

Speaker 2

And then there's remediation capacity. Remediation capacity, Wow, how many vulnerabilities a team can.

Speaker 3

Handle within a certain time, within a given time Okay, So speed and efficiency, speed inefficiency.

Speaker 1

Got it. But let's be realistic. Okay, not every organization has a massive security team with unlimited resources, right, what about smaller companies? Smaller companies, Yeah, with limited budgets.

Speaker 2

That's where the concept of self service security comes in.

Speaker 1

Sell service security.

Speaker 2

Imagine empowering IT teams okay, to identify and fix vulnerabilities on their own, on their own, with waiting for instructions from security.

Speaker 1

So giving them the tools and.

Speaker 2

The knowledge to manage their own risk.

Speaker 1

That sounds pretty revolutionary.

Speaker 2

It is, It's becoming more and more common. The book talks about a shipping company that used their CMDB.

Speaker 1

Hold on, remind me what a CMDB is.

Speaker 2

Again, Configuration management database.

Speaker 1

Oh yeah, okay.

Speaker 2

Think of it like a detailed inventory all the hardware and software in your organism.

Speaker 1

Okay, got it.

Speaker 2

So the shipping company use their CMDB to.

Speaker 1

Give their IT teams a way to manage their own vulnerabilities exactly.

Speaker 2

They could see which assets they were responsible for, okay, the associated risks, the deadlines for remediation, got it. It freed up the security.

Speaker 1

Team to focus on more strategic things.

Speaker 2

To focus on more strategic initiatives, okay, while it became more proactive, no active.

Speaker 1

And efficient and efficient win win for every reason.

Speaker 2

Win.

Speaker 1

But even with the best tools and systems in place, I imagine it can still be tough to keep up with the ever changing threat landscape it is, So how do we make sure our RBVM program stays like effective over time.

Speaker 2

That's where automation comes in. Organizations mature in their RBVM journey, they often look to automate tasks what like vulnerability scanning, risk scoring, even remediation.

Speaker 1

So we're taking the manual workout of the equation, taking the manual workout, making things smoother, more efficient. But automation can only take us so far. Right, true, we also need those well defined processes, well defined processes that are consistently followed.

Speaker 2

Consistently follow This includes regular reviews, our data sources, risk models, and remediation strategies.

Speaker 1

So it's about building a sustainable system sustainable systems then that can adapt.

Speaker 2

As the threat landscape of all the exactly.

Speaker 1

And that brings us to another.

Speaker 2

Important point business context. Business context, it's not enough to just look at vulnerabilities in isolation. We need to understand how they might impact the business as a whole.

Speaker 1

So asking questions like, if this vulnerability is exploited, what systems would be affected, what data would be at risk? How would it impact our operations exactly?

Speaker 2

Our customers, our customers precisely, So connecting the dots between technical vulnerability.

Speaker 1

Between technical vulnerabilities and business impact and business impact, and this allows us to make more informed decisions, more formed decisions about prioritization and resource allocation. It sounds like we're breaking down those silos.

Speaker 2

Again, breaking down silos.

Speaker 1

Bringing security IT and the business side together together to make smarter decisions.

Speaker 2

Are decisions now.

Speaker 1

The authors they they dive deep into some specific remediation metrics, remediation metrics that go beyond just looking at you know, those CVSS.

Speaker 2

Scores CBSS scores.

Speaker 1

So what are some of the things we should be measuring besides those CVSS scores.

Speaker 2

We've already talked about remediation velocity and capacity, okay, but we should also consider time to remediation.

Speaker 1

Time to remediation okay.

Speaker 2

Which measures how long it takes to fix a vulnerability.

Speaker 1

From the moment it's discovered.

Speaker 2

From the moment it's discovered okay. And then there's meantime.

Speaker 1

To remediation meantime to remediation okay.

Speaker 2

Gives us an average across all vulnerabilities.

Speaker 1

Got it.

Speaker 2

Tracking these metrics helps us identify bottlenecks, bottlenecks okay, areas for improvement in our processes.

Speaker 1

So we're really trying to like optimize the entire remediation.

Speaker 2

Workflow, the entire workflow.

Speaker 1

Right, and as we mentioned earlier, that often involves automating certain tasks.

Speaker 2

With automating tasks, but we.

Speaker 1

Can also look at things like streamlining communication between.

Speaker 2

Teams, streamlining communication.

Speaker 1

Improving the accuracy of our vulnerability assessments, vulnerability providing better training, better training and resources to our IT staff.

Speaker 2

To the IT staff.

Speaker 1

So it's a it's a holistic approach, holistic approach addressing both the technical and the human.

Speaker 3

Aspects, both the technical and the human vulnerability managed vulnerability management.

Speaker 1

And that's why it's so important to have clear roles and responsibilities.

Speaker 2

Clear roles and responsibilities.

Speaker 1

Regular community, regular communication between teams, and shared metrics.

Speaker 2

And goals, shared metrics and goals.

Speaker 1

When everyone is on the same page, on the same page, yeah, and working together effectively, I can see how that makes a huge.

Speaker 2

Difference, huge difference.

Speaker 1

Now, the authors paint this fascinating picture of the future of the future of vulnerability and management.

Speaker 3

The future of vulnerability management, They talk about the potential for predicting vulnerability exploitation.

Speaker 1

With the same accuracy, with the same accuracy as weber forecasting weather forecasting. Yes, that's a that's a pretty mind blowing concept. It is imagine being able to anticipate which vulnerabilities are most likely to be.

Speaker 2

Exploited when allowing you to proactively allocate resources, mitigate risks before they can even be exploited or where they can be exploited.

Speaker 1

That would be a game changer. It would be a game changer for security teams.

Speaker 2

The security teams.

Speaker 1

And while we're not quite there yet, not quite there yet, the progress being made is remarkable in this areas is pretty remarkable. It is so what can our listeners do.

Speaker 2

To start applying these principles, to start applying these principles.

Speaker 1

And their own organization in their own organist stations. I would say the first step assess your current vulnerability management program.

Speaker 2

Assess your program.

Speaker 1

Are we just reacting to vulnerabilities as they pop up as they pop up, or are we taking a more proactive.

Speaker 2

And strategic approach proactive and strategic. Right then start thinking about how you can incorporate data and analytics.

Speaker 1

Into your decision making and your decision making, so things like like vulnerability.

Speaker 2

Databases, vulnerability databases.

Speaker 1

Ret intelligence, threat intelligence, asset inventory, asset inventory. And don't underestimate the importance of collaboration. Collaboration's key breaking down those silos.

Speaker 2

Breaking down silos.

Speaker 1

Between security IT and the business side to business side RBVM is it's a team effort.

Speaker 2

Team effort.

Speaker 1

It requires a shared understand shared understanding of the of the risks and a commitment to working together can together to mitigate them.

Speaker 2

Mitigate those risks, and don't be.

Speaker 1

Afraid to experiment with new tools and technologies.

Speaker 2

Do tools to technologies.

Speaker 1

There are so many innovative solutions.

Speaker 3

Out there, innovative solutions that can help you automate tasks, automate tasks, gain insights, gain insights.

Speaker 1

Improve your overall security posture. Security posture it's about embracing continuous.

Speaker 2

Improvement, continuous improvements, and always.

Speaker 1

Looking for ways to do things better. To do things better, and remember security is a journey. Security is a journey, not a destination.

Speaker 2

Not a destination.

Speaker 1

It feels like we've only just scratched the surface here, we have.

Speaker 2

But hopefully you've gained a better understanding of how RBVM works and why it's so important. Definitely, it's a crucial change, you know.

Speaker 1

From reactive to proactive.

Speaker 2

Yeah, that's the key takeaway here.

Speaker 1

Embracing data, automation and collaboration.

Speaker 2

Absolutely, leveraging technology to gain.

Speaker 1

Insights, empowering those teams.

Speaker 2

Yeah, fostering communication across the organization.

Speaker 1

And it seems like the field is rapidly evolving.

Speaker 2

It is.

Speaker 1

All these new technologies and approaches are emerging.

Speaker 2

Yeah, we're seeing a convergence with you know, data science and AI leading to some really innovative solutions.

Speaker 1

The book mentioned predicting vulnerability exploitation with the accuracy of like weather forecasting. That's right, that's that's a pretty mind blowing concept.

Speaker 2

Mind bling Imagine being.

Speaker 1

Able to anticipate which vulnerabilities are most likely to be exploited and when that's it, you know, so you can proactively allocate those resources.

Speaker 2

And mitigate risks before they can even be exploited.

Speaker 1

That would be a game changer, it would.

Speaker 2

It would, And while we're not quite there yet.

Speaker 1

Not quite there yet, but the progress is remarkable.

Speaker 2

It is remarkable.

Speaker 1

So what can our listeners do to like, start applying these principles in their own organizations.

Speaker 2

Assess your current vulnerability management program, take a look at it. Yeah, are we just reacting or are we taking a more proactive and strategic approach? Right? Start thinking about how you can incorporate that data and analytics into your decision making.

Speaker 1

Things like vulnerability databases.

Speaker 2

Bred intelligence, asset inventory.

Speaker 1

Don't underestimate that collaboration.

Speaker 2

Collaboration is key.

Speaker 1

Break down those silos.

Speaker 2

Between security IT and the business side RBVM.

Speaker 1

It's a team effort, absolutely shared understanding of the risks, a commitment to working together to mitigate them.

Speaker 2

Working together, don't be afraid.

Speaker 1

To experiment with those new tools and technologies.

Speaker 2

There are so many innovative solutions out there.

Speaker 1

Automate tasks, gain insights, improve security posture.

Speaker 2

It's about embracing continuous improvement right, always looking for ways to do things.

Speaker 3

Better, and remember security is a journey, a journey, not a destination.

Speaker 1

Not a destination. Well said, A huge thank you to you for sharing your expertise with us.

Speaker 2

It's been my pleasure.

Speaker 1

And to our listeners, we hope you found this deep dive into RBVM informative and insightful, I hope. So remember knowledge is power.

Speaker 2

Knowledge is power, and in the world.

Speaker 1

Of cybersecurity, that power can help you build a more resilient and secure future for your organization. That's right, So stay curious, stay informed, and stay secure.

Speaker 2

Stay secure until next time.

Speaker 1

This has been the deep Dive

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