Crypto Rundown: Why is Crypto Down & JP. Morgan's Crypto Secret Revealed!

[SPEAKER_00]: Alright everyone, welcome back to the crypto 101 run down presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money. [SPEAKER_00]: We're excited to be back here with all of you once again in Man the Crypto Market. [SPEAKER_00]: It's volatile. [SPEAKER_00]: That's a big reason why we're all here in the first place. [SPEAKER_00]: Today, I guess rather this week and over the weekend, [SPEAKER_00]: We've seen some volatility to the downside.

[SPEAKER_00]: Crypto markets are taking a little bit of a spill down words, but it's going to be one of the main talking points of today's episode. [SPEAKER_00]: We're going to talk about why the crypto market's heading down, our thoughts, some different data points that'll probably help paint the full picture for all of you. [SPEAKER_00]: And we want to talk about all the good that's happening as well, because...

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, popular or contrary to popular belief here, there's a lot of good, a lot of positive catalysts that are happening in the background, and we don't want those to get overlooked, but the few negative things that are pushing prices to the downside, because again, just because prices move downwards doesn't mean that there's not a lot of other really good things happening, and although it might kind of... [SPEAKER_00]: Take a lot of our attention in the short term.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that it takes away from the long-term arguments at all. [SPEAKER_00]: So, welcome back everyone. [SPEAKER_00]: Good to have you. [SPEAKER_00]: Of course, I got my good old buddy and co-hosts for these and super producer, astronaut, philanthropist, Billy Anker. [SPEAKER_00]: T-Vo. [SPEAKER_00]: That was great. [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, thank you, man. [SPEAKER_01]: That was the nicest intro I've ever gotten. [SPEAKER_01]: And good to be here.

[SPEAKER_01]: Good to see everybody. [SPEAKER_01]: And if you are, if you're noticing a different background here, welcome to the new studio. [SPEAKER_01]: It's been a hectic month of October. [SPEAKER_01]: All positive things. [SPEAKER_01]: A lot of travel. [SPEAKER_01]: We're out together with the team in San Diego. [SPEAKER_01]: If you remember, and then I had a big move. [SPEAKER_01]: So I am in a new space. [SPEAKER_01]: spent all late week last week.

[SPEAKER_01]: That's why we didn't have a Thursday or Friday show setting up the new digs, but now we're in official official office official studio. [SPEAKER_01]: We brought over the, uh, we brought over the Mona Lisa as you can see, um, there's another painting back there that I designed back in the day that I love. [SPEAKER_01]: But we're, we'll play around with it. [SPEAKER_01]: I got a nice little.

[SPEAKER_01]: Fireplace, mantle beside me behind me here, Brendan, nothing like a fireplace of Florida, as they say. [SPEAKER_01]: But we'll do some fun stuff with it. [SPEAKER_01]: Brian McNutt is saying it looks good. [SPEAKER_01]: Well, thank you, Brian. [SPEAKER_01]: And welcome to James and everybody else that's filing into the chat. [SPEAKER_01]: Now that we're more settled as we head to the end of the year, I do owe the listeners and the community more notice when we're going live.

[SPEAKER_01]: Because it's kind of been a, [SPEAKER_01]: fly by night October, but I do have a meeting scheduled to get a more concrete plan. [SPEAKER_01]: We'll make sure to communicate that. [SPEAKER_01]: So thanks everybody for joining. [SPEAKER_01]: But the markets are volatile. [SPEAKER_01]: That's why we're here. [SPEAKER_01]: But Brendan, I got to ask you why is crypto down?

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, that is the million dollar question at the moment. [SPEAKER_00]: Why in the world is the crypto market going down here? [SPEAKER_00]: Lots of mixed opinions. [SPEAKER_00]: And so the big thing that I've been [SPEAKER_00]: October, October, it's supposed to be this big bullish month, and it wasn't. [SPEAKER_00]: We ended the month about 3% in the red, and now we're moving in the November, which is historically the highest return of month on average.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now granted, it's pretty heavily weighted from what we saw back in 2013, which kind of skews that number a little bit. [SPEAKER_00]: But, and actually, let me see if I have this off to the side. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think I have it up right now, but regardless, that is one of the big kind of questions that people have is like, hey, this is seasonally the best time for crypto, why aren't we doing this? [SPEAKER_00]: You also look at all of the other catalysts.

[SPEAKER_00]: You have positive regulation. [SPEAKER_00]: You have new altcoin ETFs. [SPEAKER_00]: You have the Fed cutting rates. [SPEAKER_00]: You have lower than expected inflation. [SPEAKER_00]: You have trade deals happening. [SPEAKER_00]: fear seems to be kind of removing on into the past. [SPEAKER_00]: And yet, we kind of have crypto moving down here. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's where people are starting to get a little bit confused.

[SPEAKER_00]: So the thing about this is that there's not just like a one-size-fits-all answer if that makes sense. [SPEAKER_00]: It's not just a single thing that is doing this. [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's a couple of different scenarios and I think the biggest one is that people have underestimated how much that largest liquidation event that we had a couple of weeks ago.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that people have underestimated the lingering effects of that or the domino effect that that has had on the market. [SPEAKER_00]: A lot of people, almost, I don't want to say everyone, but almost everyone who had a [SPEAKER_00]: were wiped out, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Many of those altcoins fell by 50% depending on the brokers that you were on. [SPEAKER_00]: And that means that anyone at two x leverage or greater was wiped out if there was a 50% drawdown.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I think what we're seeing there is again, some of the lingering effects of that large liquidation event. [SPEAKER_01]: And what chart were you looking for? [SPEAKER_01]: Do you want me to pull up or something? [SPEAKER_00]: I think I was just looking at the monthly returns for the past like 10 years or whatever.

[SPEAKER_00]: Um, but I think we showed that last week, so it's not, it's not like it's too pressing or any trying to find it if I, I'll try to find it, but yeah, keep going.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, but when it comes to this week, again, I think we are still seeing more and more liquidations and [SPEAKER_00]: the amount of buyers that we had previously just aren't there. [SPEAKER_00]: We are not seeing kind of the same levels of buyers and buying pressure and people willing to get levered up on the market. [SPEAKER_00]: Because again, a lot of them were burnt. [SPEAKER_00]: They were wiped out on that move.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think what we're seeing now is a little bit of lingering effects kind of a domino effect on the markets. [SPEAKER_00]: So here's that chart that I was referencing earlier, where people were saying, Brendan, you look at October. [SPEAKER_00]: and the average return rate is almost 20%. [SPEAKER_00]: We haven't seen a red October since, I think it was 2018, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: We've only seen one red October in the last 10 years and then we get one today, or we get one this year. [SPEAKER_00]: And then now we're moving on to November, which, [SPEAKER_00]: Historically, has the highest average return rate, but as you see from that chart, it's pretty heavily skewed by those 2013 numbers, whereas about 450% to the upside that month. [SPEAKER_00]: So again, it's still pretty good, but we do see an increase in frequency.

[SPEAKER_00]: Whereas we only saw about one red month in the last 10 years for October, we've seen four of them. [SPEAKER_00]: for an November. [SPEAKER_00]: However, the return rates in those green months are pretty high. [SPEAKER_00]: As you can see, you know, 37% last year, 9% the year before that, couple of red ones, and then we have a plus 43% a plus 53% and so on and so forth.

[SPEAKER_00]: So again, seasonally a pretty good time, but again, I think that the the name of the game here in point number one is the lingering effects of that mass liquidation event. [SPEAKER_00]: The largest one in crypto history, [SPEAKER_00]: Alameda COVID bigger than like all of those combined in terms of liquidations and so it is a pretty big moment. [SPEAKER_00]: I think the other thing here we actually have [SPEAKER_00]: some articles to the throw on the screen for these TFO.

[SPEAKER_00]: But beyond liquidations, I think there's two other things. [SPEAKER_00]: You have a little bit of sentiment shifting, and you also have, I think, a tad bit of exhaustion. [SPEAKER_00]: And there's two articles that I want to reference when it comes to this. [SPEAKER_00]: The first one is the one that we have on the screen right now, which is kind of addresses this, and they're saying, hey, Bitcoin is falling, and it could fall as low as $88,000.

[SPEAKER_00]: And they go on and they go on to talk about like sentiment and a lot of the stuff that we that we were referencing over in here. [SPEAKER_00]: And I want to explain this one deeply more deeply on the charts once we open that up. [SPEAKER_00]: But keep in mind that number, because I think $88,000 is something that would be possible if we do see a drop to the downside. [SPEAKER_00]: So I want it. [SPEAKER_00]: just like read this and be like, oh, there's no way we get to $88,000.

[SPEAKER_00]: Because I do think that it's a possibility if we start really cracking down below support, which it kind of looks like we're doing right now on Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: So again, it's not like it's this end of the world scenario. [SPEAKER_00]: But, [SPEAKER_00]: I also don't want to just credit this idea that Bitcoin could see 10% to the downside.

[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, I think that there's quite a bit of evidence that shows that that is really possible and everything can still be okay. [SPEAKER_00]: So again, we're going to explain this more once we get onto the charts. [SPEAKER_00]: I just wanted to reference this article and let everyone kind of read through it before we do that. [SPEAKER_00]: The second article that we have on the screen here is talking, this one's actually directly from Coin Glass.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'm pretty sure, you know, I'm sorry, not Coin Glass. [SPEAKER_00]: This one's from Glass Note. [SPEAKER_00]: Glass Note insights. [SPEAKER_00]: And what they were doing here is they're saying, hey, there's some weakening capital inflows. [SPEAKER_00]: There's some fading profitability going on. [SPEAKER_00]: We're seeing ETF outflows. [SPEAKER_00]: We're seeing a little bit of slowing in terms of institutional demands.

[SPEAKER_00]: And there's a lack of sustainability support kind of in these levels. [SPEAKER_00]: And so when they go and let's actually scroll through this just very slowly and you can see that you know, they're talking about this. [SPEAKER_00]: They talk about some of the sentiment numbers. [SPEAKER_00]: They talk about the relative strength index. [SPEAKER_00]: They talk about spot CBD.

[SPEAKER_00]: They talk about a lot of different statistics here and they walk through an explain like, hey, this is why sentiment might be shifting. [SPEAKER_00]: This is why there might be these potential signs of exhaustion and the referencing here with a lot of the data that they are talking about. [SPEAKER_00]: So, when we're looking at these, I think those are the three big things to understand. [SPEAKER_00]: You have the liquidations.

[SPEAKER_00]: in the lingering effects, you have a little bit of sentiment shifting, and you'll also have some signs of exhaustion, and I think those are the three things that we're seeing here. [SPEAKER_00]: Now there's one more graphic that I want to throw up before we go into the charts, and this is comparing the M2 money supply, gold chart, Bitcoin chart, I want to reference NASDAQ as well, and so if we're taking, I think a lot of the big

[SPEAKER_00]: the big dogs out there, right? [SPEAKER_00]: The big players that people like to compare Bitcoin and the crypto market too There's a couple of things to understand because for a long time Bitcoin has had this pretty strong macro correlation to the M2 money supply And it's also had somewhat of a correlation and I different points in times to gold and NASDAQ and other things

[SPEAKER_00]: And so with the Federal Reserve cutting rates, I think there is this a little bit of of nervousness in the air because what we're seeing is as you can see on the chart, the M2 Money Supply has continued to hit new highs after new highs after new highs for months now. [SPEAKER_00]: And then you go and you'll look at gold and it's been doing the same thing, new highs for months and months and months. [SPEAKER_00]: And we don't have the NASDAQ chart or any of the index charts up here.

[SPEAKER_00]: But they've continued to do the same thing. [SPEAKER_00]: So we see the M2 monies apply gold and the equities all continuing to hit consecutive new all-time highs for months. [SPEAKER_00]: And we've actually started to see Bitcoin stall out here. [SPEAKER_00]: And so I think that is where the fear is coming from. [SPEAKER_00]: And the sense that we are seeing kind of money come into those, [SPEAKER_00]: Now, at face value, that looks I think a lot worse than it actually is.

[SPEAKER_00]: So what I'm going to do over here is I'm going to go over and take a look at the charts now. [SPEAKER_00]: Because we kind of painted the worst case scenarios saying, hey, these are the kind of possible reasons that are contributing to Bitcoin underperforming here. [SPEAKER_00]: And then the other thing I think we have to understand is actually looking at the chart itself.

[SPEAKER_00]: So if we go over here to you though and we take a look at this track actually to you about anything to say I mean I don't I just basically Brain dumped on you and everyone else What do your thoughts about all this stuff? [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, man. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I couldn't agree with you more in the sense that we're just brain dubbing on everybody, but that's what you got to do.

[SPEAKER_01]: You got to find the, you know, you got to find the reasons why and try to make sense of everything and kind of like what I said is like, hey, when you pull up, you know, shows what you're seeing, but zoom out a little bit. [SPEAKER_01]: It's like it's basically been a three month.

[SPEAKER_01]: you know just kind of range and it feels like they're trying to tire you out and when I say they it's you know the big-time whales people with tons of liquidity and you know these exchanges and and whale hunters your your stop-wash hunting at different levels and it could be to the upside it could be to the downside.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, but I think later in the show as we see with all this macro level bullish news, um, that we see, uh, across the space continuously, um, the price action hasn't really followed that per se in the last three months, but will it eventually in the long term, you know, not personal financial advice, we believe so that's why we're here continuously multiple days a week. [SPEAKER_01]: Um, but it's all part of having a community Josh said in the comments he's getting tired.

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, you know, how much longer is it going to go boys? [SPEAKER_01]: I'm getting tired of all this. [SPEAKER_01]: It's like, yeah, that's the point. [SPEAKER_01]: That's what they're trying to do and that's, you know, the game of investing, whether you're a trader or long term investing. [SPEAKER_01]: There's, there's a lot of ups and downs of this thing. [SPEAKER_01]: It's not straight up.

[SPEAKER_01]: And then again, with that M2 money supply, my thought is traditionally Bitcoin moves last, but it also moves the fastest. [SPEAKER_01]: So you can see kind of gold up top there with M2 money supply. [SPEAKER_01]: We've seen that story unfold. [SPEAKER_01]: We've covered that. [SPEAKER_01]: And we do believe that eventually at some point, Bitcoin's going to follow that trend.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: Exactly, man. [SPEAKER_00]: And even though we are seeing it kind of stray away here at the moment, [SPEAKER_00]: There's two things I want to reference. [SPEAKER_00]: Number one, that 88K price target that we talked about earlier. [SPEAKER_00]: And number two, what has happened historically when Bitcoin has been in a similar situation?

[SPEAKER_00]: So let's talk about ADAK first, because these two points kind of tie-hand in hand with one another. [SPEAKER_00]: It's very clearly that Bitcoin's at a critical level of support, right? [SPEAKER_00]: We are approaching, and we're at those prior all-time highs, turn into support, we've been testing this level, like this is a critical zone. [SPEAKER_00]: It just is. [SPEAKER_00]: There's no denying it. [SPEAKER_00]: This is a critical level of support.

[SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin really does need to close and hold above its prior all-time highs. [SPEAKER_00]: And so that's what we're seeing here is a lot of stress be put in a lot of emphasis be put on this area and if we crack here, then I think that is when the possibility of 88 comes 88k comes in now Brendan why 88k why that number well if we go back this is a thing that we've shown before and you look at kind of the moment that Bitcoin broke its 200 day moving average to where it bottomed out.

[SPEAKER_00]: We get a little bit of a reoccurring theme here and this is happened three other times since 2022. [SPEAKER_00]: We saw it in 2023, 2024 and earlier in 2025 around springtime. [SPEAKER_00]: So if we look at this, you know, from around the moment that the 200-day moving average broke to the bottom, this one was about 11%. [SPEAKER_00]: Um, if we look at it from over here from kind of this moment to the bottom, it was about 19 to 20 percent.

[SPEAKER_00]: You look at it over here on this one from kind of the moment that the 200-day moving average broke to the bottom. [SPEAKER_00]: It was around 9 to 10 percent. [SPEAKER_00]: So we were on 9 10 percent, 19 percent, and around the 11 percent on these retracement. [SPEAKER_00]: All piercing around that double digit territory. [SPEAKER_00]: And guess what happened with all of these T-Vo?

[SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin broke the 200-day [SPEAKER_00]: Went down double digits and then rallied to new highs and then it broke the 200 day moving average [SPEAKER_00]: fell double digits and then rallied to new highs. [SPEAKER_00]: And then did it again over here, fell below the tuner day moving average rallied to new highs.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so now we're kind of coming back to this possibility and we're looking at it once again and saying, hey, is it possible that we crack here and if we do, could we see double digit downsides? [SPEAKER_00]: The answer there is, yeah, it is a possibility, but number one, we haven't fully cracked yet. [SPEAKER_00]: It's looking a little bit weak, it's looking a little bit scary, but we haven't fully cracked yet.

[SPEAKER_00]: And number two, even if we do, it isn't the end of the world. [SPEAKER_00]: We have seen this every single year since Bitcoin is pivoted. [SPEAKER_00]: It pivoted from under the 200-day moving average in 2022. [SPEAKER_00]: We saw that pullback happen in 2023, 2024, 2025, already this year.

[SPEAKER_00]: And now we're looking at it once again, and there seems to still be this idea that [SPEAKER_00]: oh but like this time could be different and that's everyone's favorite saying is this time it could be different when statistically like that just is not the case so when we go and we look at this over here what would that 10% pullback be from the 200-day moving average here?

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, about 10% would bring us to around 98k, but we have seen Bitcoin on some of these pullbacks go down 20% and that would bring us to around 87k. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's where they're leaning to this time is saying, hey, to the worst and a 20% pullback which we have seen before, would bring us to around 88, 87k. [SPEAKER_00]: A 10% pullback would bring us closer to like 97k.

[SPEAKER_00]: So regardless here, it's kind of this idea [SPEAKER_00]: It's pretty possible that we go when we see Bitcoin somewhere in the 90,000s. [SPEAKER_00]: That is where I would actually be much more excited to be a buyer, and I would be really, really stoked to be able to look at some of these opportunities, because if we see a 10% pullback on Bitcoin, that could be 20% or 30% for alt, because they typically move it around two to three times the volatility of Bitcoin.

[SPEAKER_00]: So again, a 10% move on Bitcoin could be 20 to 30% for something like alt. [SPEAKER_00]: And that's something that kind of keep in mind here as well. [SPEAKER_00]: So those were kind of the big ideas. [SPEAKER_00]: Again, I know in recent months we have seen some exhaustion. [SPEAKER_00]: And the stats are there. [SPEAKER_00]: There's data to kind of to show that. [SPEAKER_00]: But we've been in similar situations before.

[SPEAKER_00]: And dare I say, we've been in much worse situations before.

[SPEAKER_00]: And things that look much more do me in gloomy. [SPEAKER_01]: and let's do just an exercise of something we say on this program all the time let's zoom out let's go one year running to the day of possible because election day was November 5th and we were doing a ton of episodes exactly one year ago saying hey you know this could go either way if if

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, this this person wins that they haven't been very friendly to crypto and and we see you know some some struggles ahead possibly and then or the flip side is if this this person wins president Trump and his administration has been campaigning at Bitcoin conferences and we think we're going to absolutely rip so give us give us topped a bottom one year from November third I believe election days November fifth or six.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, right in here around 67K, you know, now we're at 107K. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and we hit 120, right? [SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, like you're approaching that, you know, 85 to 100% returns in one year. [SPEAKER_01]: You know, that's something that I don't think anybody should be complaining about in the space. [SPEAKER_01]: And I know a lot of us like to play in the, the old coin markets, and especially with the momentum money makers, there's a lot of opportunity there.

[SPEAKER_01]: We got Brian in the chat today. [SPEAKER_01]: We're going to get him on the show later this week again to kind of cover that and he's got some interesting points about Bitcoin as well actually is thrown in the chat there for everybody that's live with us, but yeah, I think it's his zoom out like look at that chart it kind of looks like I mean you're the chart master brand and that looks like a beautiful chart to me. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, exactly.

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, like we talk about some short-term stuff happening and like, yeah, like there is a chance that we do break. [SPEAKER_00]: There's a chance we see more downside still. [SPEAKER_00]: But again, Tiva, what do we say? [SPEAKER_00]: When in doubt, zoom out. [SPEAKER_00]: And you're right, you look at this and it's like, oh, this isn't the end of the world. [SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, hey, we're still looking at this.

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, is there the chance for some more downside? [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I think if you're a short-term trader, then this is going to be a much more... [SPEAKER_00]: big deal. [SPEAKER_00]: But again, if you're like a long-term investor, I've talked to quite a few long-term investors and they don't care. [SPEAKER_00]: They're like, oh, Bitcoin drops to 90, okay? [SPEAKER_00]: They're just kind of shrug it off. [SPEAKER_00]: That's whatever.

[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: It's not a big deal to them. [SPEAKER_00]: It's only to, I think, the traders or to the short-term people that feel like this is bigger than it actually is. [SPEAKER_01]: Well, and everybody that's leveraged out of their mind, I think great thing about us is and we talk, you know, on air, but also inside the community again, if you're interested in joining, always check down below. [SPEAKER_01]: We got a $1 trial for you.

[SPEAKER_01]: I also have the link for for Brendan's trading course down there as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you want to get more in tune with the charts, but it's like, um, obviously, you know, we talk about our leverage and our trades and, you know, there's times for me and you're like, hey, we're gearing up, hey, we're [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we're kind of taking some leverage off, but that's again, when we talk about that stuff, it's a small percentage of our portfolio compared to what we just have, you know, and some of these blue chip long-term investments that we don't touch.

[SPEAKER_01]: And so yeah, do I get upset about some of my leverage trades working or not working? [SPEAKER_01]: Especially when they don't work. [SPEAKER_01]: Yes, but I also kind of to your point when I when I stare at when I stare at Bitcoin, I'm just like, oh, my good out of 88k, but yeah, I'll buy it there. [SPEAKER_01]: Brian said that in the chat early. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm a buyer to 80k. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm like, yeah, I'm

[SPEAKER_01]: any time that thing dips below a hundred at this point i'm going to start you know load up again and i feel like that would be you know you never know how much you're going to get tested whether it's 85 88 you know 70 whatever it is but um you know i don't know i feel like we've seen this playbook before and in the long term whether it's you know whatever to pick whatever you know s and p gold and now bitcoin is is kind of that new it new kit on the block and that's

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, percentage of market cap can Bitcoin get to gold is the conversation that we've been talking about in the space for years, but it's now starting to get a mainstream conversation and this stuff takes time. [SPEAKER_01]: So again, anybody that feels like they're panicking or anything, sorry, last point is like, I just think you're in the right space and that's why we do this stuff. [SPEAKER_01]: It's community, it's educational.

[SPEAKER_01]: But we're here together and again, we have a lot of fun at times and then there's a lot of times where it's not as fun and this seems to be the not as fun boring price action You're not feeling healthy and happy, but again the second half of the show we're gonna give you all this bullish news So I don't know why you'd want to exit the space now [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and I don't think people, at least the vast majority of people, I do not think that people are concerned about Bitcoin.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that people are concerned about like anything related there. [SPEAKER_00]: I think the big concern is altcoins. [SPEAKER_00]: Is what will happen altcoins if Bitcoin rolls over? [SPEAKER_00]: Again, there's very little concern from, I think the average investor or even trader of like what if Bitcoin spells over? [SPEAKER_00]: Peel just aren't concerned about that. [SPEAKER_00]: Like, we've seen what happened in the past.

[SPEAKER_00]: Again, the big talking point here is the altcoin market. [SPEAKER_00]: Because that's where you really start to see things draining. [SPEAKER_00]: You go and you look, bitcoins down 3% today. [SPEAKER_00]: The average altcoin is down around 10%.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, Salana's down 10%, Sui's down 10% error drones down 11 and a half, on dos down 10, A-vax's down 10, obvious down almost 12% linked down 11% nearest down 11%, Pengu's down 11% like you look at these and they're down like almost [SPEAKER_00]: three, four times what Bitcoin is on the day. [SPEAKER_00]: And so I think that that is where people's primary concern is.

[SPEAKER_00]: Is that, like we were saying a little bit earlier, people were probably overexposed and over-leverage, probably overexposed to altcoins over-leverage on crypto. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's where the pain is coming from.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's really where the big concern is, because the altcoin season so far, it's been good, and there have been really, really big runners, but I would dare to say it hasn't been as good as some of the prior cycles, and it hasn't felt as rewarding as some of the prior cycles. [SPEAKER_00]: And then you get these big down moves, and it feels like [SPEAKER_00]: the down moves have been hitting harder than the moves up.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's where people are a little bit more concerned with. [SPEAKER_00]: And so that seems to be all where a lot of the focus is. [SPEAKER_00]: We're going to continue to talk about this. [SPEAKER_00]: There are some more data points earlier. [SPEAKER_00]: But I don't want us to do well on some of the negative stuff too long. [SPEAKER_00]: So we have plenty of good things to say.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I'll hand it to you. [SPEAKER_01]: We got a couple of quick hitters here. [SPEAKER_01]: And then we'll dive in on some on the stat, not the stat of the day. [SPEAKER_01]: I have the stat of the day at the end. [SPEAKER_01]: The crypto person of the week is an absolute gem of a person. [SPEAKER_01]: We'll get to him later.

[SPEAKER_01]: But again, just kind of around with this administration Scott Besson was tweeting out earlier this week celebrating the 17 years of the Bitcoin white paper again, just kind of praising Bitcoin again, this is the guy that we've correctly.

[SPEAKER_01]: might I add have nailed that when we were doing the whole tariff things and breaking that down I remember we were on the air and we pointed out it's like hey, whatever I would listen to whatever best and says I think he has voice of the markets. [SPEAKER_01]: He has the most trust from the oval office with President Trump and there was I think it was Peter Navarro and the canter canter Fitzgerald Howard Lutnik

[SPEAKER_01]: uh... they were all mouthpieceing a little bit different things and then eventually beset uh... came out on top of the only voice uh... and calm the market down and obviously it was a big rip from there so him and talking about that i i think it is a big deal i don't think it's nothing burger i will say uh... there was tons of action up front early in in the administration there hasn't been that much specifically around the big coin reserve uh... i think

[SPEAKER_01]: I hope they're doing it, which would be the best thing is like they're doing it quietly and then they'll announce it. [SPEAKER_01]: I also think that they know that they have our, um, and when I say, R, I mean the, the space of like crypto support, they kind of have it in the back pocket. [SPEAKER_01]: And so again, politics is all strategy. [SPEAKER_01]: So they got us involved, uh, you know, some might say it was pushing it over the line for, for a win for them.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and then the fact that they know they have us in their back pocket. [SPEAKER_01]: Maybe they let us cool off now. [SPEAKER_01]: They did a couple things. [SPEAKER_01]: They're getting obviously the legislation there, but they'll let us cool off because, again, election comes in cycles. [SPEAKER_01]: So now we have a year until the Congress Senate cycle and then two years for the other presidential cycles. [SPEAKER_01]: So it's like, you know, hey, we did some stuff.

[SPEAKER_01]: You're happy with this. [SPEAKER_01]: But now we're going to put you on the back burner a little bit. [SPEAKER_01]: That that's a possibility as well. [SPEAKER_01]: So what do you think about that thought? [SPEAKER_00]: I have to inject one thing because I couldn't think about it after you brought it up. [SPEAKER_00]: Number one, Scott Besson, a scene. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, whatever this guy says, he's been amazing for the markets.

[SPEAKER_00]: There did you see the tweet over the weekend Trump getting up, I forget what it was for, but he's speaking on a podium and he goes, the quote was, Scott Besson, you're doing a great job. [SPEAKER_00]: How good is he on television? [SPEAKER_00]: He suits the markets. [SPEAKER_00]: me. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't see the markets. [SPEAKER_00]: I sometimes disturb the markets. [SPEAKER_00]: It's my favorite tweet from the last month.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_01]: It's great quote. [SPEAKER_00]: But it's right. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, it's right. [SPEAKER_00]: It's right. [SPEAKER_00]: It's right. [SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, we want to we don't want to glaze too much, but it's true. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, historically, you know, when that guy gets on, I think you, you know, he really does like thing. [SPEAKER_00]: No, I mean, I'm not for it. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not for it. [SPEAKER_01]: It's a pro credit.

[SPEAKER_01]: It's us because that was again, that was a [SPEAKER_01]: You know, are you buying this dip? [SPEAKER_01]: What's going on? [SPEAKER_01]: There's so many mouthpieces coming out. [SPEAKER_01]: And I thought we, I thought we gave, you know, sage education. [SPEAKER_01]: It wasn't investment advice clearly, but it was just education of opinions. [SPEAKER_01]: And I think we nailed that one.

[SPEAKER_01]: uh... and uh... speaking of big-time people getting involved with crypto it's uh... amazon is following the footsteps of iBM so looks like amazon is now hiring a bit coin in crypto ecosystem lead so again just ahead of news just like iBM did last week and we covered that one uh... but you know these major companies you haven't really you know some people have been putting it on their balance sheets okay we're gonna buy some bitcoin on our balance sheet

[SPEAKER_01]: Or there's the treasury companies like micro strategy, but now that you're seeing some of these huge blue chip tech companies and you got to remember we've talked about this I think on the show before is like comparing the the bubble of, you know, the tech bubble of 2009 to today it's like it's uncomparable because these tech companies have the GDP of countries. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean they're massive massively big never seen anything like it.

[SPEAKER_01]: So hiring a Bitcoin and crypto ecosystem lead. [SPEAKER_01]: Sounds really interesting and we'll dive in and try and learn as much as we can, but I thought that was actually pretty big news.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, I would agree, and that just goes to tell you like these companies, the biggest ones in the world they're making long-term plays with these kind of decisions these are saying these this is going to be around for the long term It's going to be a part of our company and we want to set up the infrastructure now to get everything else in line down the road like these are long-term plays and

[SPEAKER_00]: I think that crypto investors and blockchain enthusiasts should find this reassuring that we are moving in that direction and that's what this all of these kind of hiring moves mean. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and it's not the only moves that big tech firms are doing. [SPEAKER_01]: We saw Coinbase Coinbase had a phenomenal earnings. [SPEAKER_01]: And they announced that Coinbase is long Bitcoin buying some Bitcoin.

[SPEAKER_01]: That was something that was definitely Being tossed around especially on the X timeline is wide as in Coinbase and Robinhood as well and some of these exchanges You know getting on their case, but Brian Armstrong being such a leader in the space.

[SPEAKER_01]: It made sense for a little noise be made and [SPEAKER_01]: It looks like they've been hurt, you know, increasing some big coin that will be held on their balance sheet and then front of the program, Jesse, Jesse Polock for, you know, building base and that ecosystem is also saying, the increased their Ethereum holding as well.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, good to see these crypto companies adding some buys their balance sheet, not just kind of popping up ecosystem to, you know, for trading and for profiteering for the industry, but also leading the industry and holding the assets. [SPEAKER_00]: spot on man, spot on. [SPEAKER_01]: And then for our main event, make sure I didn't miss anything with Coinbase. [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, it was just a final number. [SPEAKER_01]: It was $299 million worth of Bitcoin in Q3.

[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, just be interested to keep watching. [SPEAKER_01]: See if they keep adding. [SPEAKER_01]: But the main event of the day, Brendan, it's it's friend of the program.

[SPEAKER_01]: uh... jamey diamond jamey jamey sorry excuse me i said his name on jamey crypto diamond has actually on a mic said that he is now uh... pro-crypto and cryptos building again we just got to share this in listen to the uh... the horses mouth here [SPEAKER_02]: skeptical of crypto at one point or something.

[SPEAKER_02]: I've gotten away with no damage so far crypto is real I mean blockchain stable coins you have a japon over deposit coin you can move stuff smart contracts real all that stuff is real It will be used by all of us to facilitate you know better transactions and all right For anybody skeptical crypto one more time one point or something. [SPEAKER_02]: I've got no damage so far [SPEAKER_02]: Crypto is real. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean blockchain stable coins.

[SPEAKER_02]: I have a JPMorgan deposit coin. [SPEAKER_02]: You can move stuff some more contracts of your all as stuff is real. [SPEAKER_02]: It will be used by all what to know better trends. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, if you just showed me that clip, Brendan, I'd be like, [SPEAKER_01]: I'd be like, wow, that guy is a big crypto guy.

[SPEAKER_01]: He, I mean, he's so prone to the technology and in the future of it, he must have a little Bitcoin, a little Ethereum, and obviously really bullish on the stablecoin story. [SPEAKER_01]: Again, I think credit to us, I was taking a victory lap on X last week on this, but

[SPEAKER_01]: this show specifically as always you know try to just bring you the news as we see it give you some opinions have some fun but something that we've consistently said especially me was like hey with this Jamie Diamond guy like you know watch what they do not what he says and I think you know black rock and Larry think where the poster child of that for his old comments and then doing the ETF and we see how successful that is and the cats out of the bag now because

[SPEAKER_01]: That was like a very, very pro-crypto stance, like nothing, nothing, nothing like what he used to say, and I just think, I get that's how the world works, but instead of just a 17 second clip, I really think somebody used to down and have a conversation with that guy. [SPEAKER_01]: about the future of crypto and technology and all that because, you know, we reported on the show. [SPEAKER_01]: We saw JP Morgan building, you know, crypto rails behind the scenes.

[SPEAKER_01]: Wall, Jamie Diamond was openly talking, you know, crap about Bitcoin and crypto. [SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, if you're listening to hear, you're definitely aware of what they were doing, but fascinating to finally see him, you know, basically have to be positive about the space.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, no, you're right, man, and it's he was what I would say is probably like one of the last people who were holding out against Bitcoin against crypto against all that and he's finally come around. [SPEAKER_00]: We're seeing all of those people and all those players all start to come around like even Schwab right for the longest time they were kind of the butt of all the memes and. [SPEAKER_00]: JPMorgan and all these other people.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think the only other one that there could be is Vanguard. [SPEAKER_00]: Vanguard Vanguard. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, or maybe. [SPEAKER_00]: Oh, what's his name? [SPEAKER_00]: The gold bug. [SPEAKER_01]: Peter. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, Peter Schiff or Warren Buffett. [SPEAKER_00]: I think the day that those two come around will be like, alright, all of the haters are gone. [SPEAKER_00]: They've been, they've been annihilated. [SPEAKER_00]: They've joined us and we'll see.

[SPEAKER_00]: I feel like those two are probably going to die on their hill, but [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I mean, I think I definitely weren't buff it's not coming around. [SPEAKER_01]: He's got more money than, you know, you see the notice of, they have more just hit a record high like pot cash pile for, uh, for his company. [SPEAKER_00]: So 100 billion or something. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, insane, insane amount of cash. [SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, you could just clip coupons.

[SPEAKER_01]: He doesn't, he's got enough money for that. [SPEAKER_01]: Clearly the rest is life as he ages, but one of the goats and then Peter Schiff, I mean, that guy has a Bitcoin wallet address and an accepts donation.

[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, we've talked about him and how he's awesome engagement, doing engagement and doing, you know, kind of the media thing as well along with his gold views, but yeah, I think watching and seeing we've seen the headlines, we reported on them of JP Morgan building crypto rails along with all these other big banks. [SPEAKER_01]: So, it'll be interesting to see, you know, again, they're giving loans on Bitcoin now. [SPEAKER_01]: So, Bitcoin was just a crap Ponzi and scam.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like, why would you be using it as collateral? [SPEAKER_01]: That doesn't sound like a safe idea for a bank. [SPEAKER_01]: So, all these things are changing. [SPEAKER_01]: It seems like the headlines are changing so fast, and sometimes maybe the price doesn't follow it, but that's, you know, that's the name of the game as we continue on with kind of bullish sentiment.

[SPEAKER_01]: Vitalik, a little quote from Vitalik, you don't hear or see much from him as much as some of the other people in the space. [SPEAKER_01]: So when he has a quote, I like to pull it up. [SPEAKER_01]: He says we need open source and verifiable self-driving cars. [SPEAKER_01]: And then I know kind of one of the things Tom Lee has said that Ethereum will be really useful for when it comes into the age of AI is we need

[SPEAKER_01]: you know to verify who are real people in the blockchain and you know I know he was kind of has a moonshot investment through BMR and R for world coin obviously bullish on Ethereum and so I don't know I thought the just tying those two together is like all right, Tradfile loves Tom Lee, Tom Lee loves Ethereum, Vitalik kind of saying something similar to Tom Tom Lee about you know verifying humans versus AI and using kind of crypto rails to do that is is an interesting take.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah. [SPEAKER_01]: it is to could you imagine we have a theorem cars driving around that's is that was kind of trolling there was like hey eat car coming soon like remember when apple tried to I think they they they announced they're like trying to build like an apple car and then scrapped it so yeah so who knows maybe maybe if I talk it's working on in the theorem car I do not believe you don't fly

[SPEAKER_01]: yeah i mean i just clearly that was a joke i think some people uh i tweeted that from as a main uh quote tweet and people were just like oh my god he's not doing a car you're an idiot it's a joke dude it's the internet take take a breather

[SPEAKER_01]: But let's finish off with, uh, I got a Bitcoin stat of the day as you can see here. [SPEAKER_01]: I tweeted this. [SPEAKER_01]: I said, I like this stat, uh, Bitcoin dropped between 6 to 8% after the last three FOMC meetings, and it made a new all-time high the next FOMC meeting. [SPEAKER_01]: Will this pattern repeat again? [SPEAKER_01]: So we had FOMC last week, obviously Crypto Bitcoin, everything's down.

[SPEAKER_01]: Um, are we going to make a new all-time high before the next one? [SPEAKER_01]: We do not have one in November. [SPEAKER_01]: The next one is December. [SPEAKER_01]: So there's time here. [SPEAKER_01]: Uh, I don't know, Brent, what do you think Bitcoin's down the day?

[SPEAKER_01]: I thought it was pretty fun and it's kind of going to be that last push that everybody's been saying for the end of the year, you know, there's all the bulls were saying, you know, what it was 150 to $500,000 price predictions. [SPEAKER_01]: We saw all the years. [SPEAKER_01]: So it's the last push to kind of make that what what are your thoughts.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I sure hope so it is interesting that we tend to see these drops after FOMC meetings regardless of the outcome. [SPEAKER_00]: Like some of those were nothing burgers, some of them were cuts, right? [SPEAKER_00]: The last two have been cuts in the one before that have been, or yeah, two of them have been cuts and one of them was just no decision at all, no change. [SPEAKER_00]: And kind of regardless of those, we see these decent sized pullbacks.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I do find that interesting. [SPEAKER_00]: I sure hope that that kind of acts as a bottoming catalyst. [SPEAKER_00]: And some of those examples we see that like we drop and then we rally and then we drop even more and like those last two examples. [SPEAKER_00]: So I don't know, I think just looking at the last couple of months period that's just kind of been the name of the game is where we rally and then we fall and we rally and then we fall and we've been shopping.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think the number one thing that I'm looking out for here is when are we gonna break out of this range? [SPEAKER_00]: Are we gonna break out of it to the upside or the downside? [SPEAKER_00]: Clearly, we've been going sideways for about, I mean, four or so months now, basically starting for Bitcoin when we broke out in July. [SPEAKER_00]: And then for all of July, August, September, October, now November, we've just been going sideways from around 166K, 105K-ish up to around 125K.

[SPEAKER_00]: So there's just $20,000 shops on the Bitcoin's been in. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think the big thing that people are trying to watch out for here is which one is going to break first? [SPEAKER_00]: Is it going to be support breaking and we're going to have a spill or is it going to be resistance breaking and we're going to kind of sail it a new all-time highs? [SPEAKER_00]: Ultimately time will tell obviously we're a whole lot closer to support than we are resistance right now.

[SPEAKER_00]: We're literally sitting on top of it. [SPEAKER_00]: But that's the number one thing that I'm trying to keep an eye on. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's well said, and just again, that was a fun little stab. [SPEAKER_01]: It's definitely nothing scientific. [SPEAKER_01]: Just like any little stabs, all about gathering data, making decisions.

[SPEAKER_01]: But rest assured that you're in the right place for the rest of the year, and for your entire crypto journey, Brennan, I appreciate you doing this on a Monday from the new and improved studio on my end. [SPEAKER_01]: Guys, any final thoughts, Brennan, I'll toss it to you to wrap up, but just appreciate everybody being here.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you're watching the replay and you're new to the YouTube, give it a like, hit the bottom right our logo, subscribe, and you know, if you're on the, we appreciate our audience over there as they have just been as consistent as ever. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you know, my only other final thought here is that Bitcoin dominance is probably going to be a big thing to keep an eye out on. [SPEAKER_00]: I think we've mentioned this.

[SPEAKER_00]: I know I have an internally with some of our groups, but I've said, listen, we've seen Bitcoin dominance in an uptrendsit [SPEAKER_00]: very clear, very steady uptrend. [SPEAKER_00]: You had the one big liquidation event candle. [SPEAKER_00]: Cut that out. [SPEAKER_00]: It's been a very consistent grind upwards in September. [SPEAKER_00]: And when Bitcoin dominance is trending up, I tend to not trade as many altcoins.

[SPEAKER_00]: So until we start to see a shift below again, until we start to see Bitcoin dominance pivot, [SPEAKER_00]: or at least more conservative with the altcoins that you're picking. [SPEAKER_00]: When Bitcoin dominance is trending up, it's not one of those phases of the market where you can throw money into anything, make money off of it, get a quick return. [SPEAKER_00]: It's just not that easy when Bitcoin dominance is trending up.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm looking at it, you know, minus that big liquidation event, this is the highest level of Bitcoin dominance that we've seen since early August and it continues to trend higher here back towards that 200-day moving average. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, watch out with that, watch out with Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: They're kind of leading the markets here as a whole. [SPEAKER_00]: And yeah, again, the trend is your friend, one in doubt, zoom out.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know all the good things that's all there is here to you, though. [SPEAKER_01]: No, couldn't agree more. [SPEAKER_01]: Appreciate everybody tuning in here on a Monday. [SPEAKER_01]: We are definitely going to come back whether it's with Brendan Art Brian or who knows, maybe both. [SPEAKER_01]: Later this week, I will post, yeah, post in the YouTube community there and on X for some times, but appreciate everybody tuning in.

[SPEAKER_01]: Have an awesome rest of your day and we've got an awesome interview coming out tomorrow. [SPEAKER_01]: It's going to be open sea. [SPEAKER_01]: You're going to want to tune into that.

[SPEAKER_01]: If you haven't yet, [SPEAKER_01]: uh... kind of here about uh... what's going on over at open sea and some uh... talks about their token on locks which is obviously really exciting for all so great interview this week some more run downs later in the week we're going to see everybody later uh... thank you for tuning in and have a great rest of your day but that's all for now bye bye buddy