Crypto Rundown: Iran War Crypto Panic to Opportunity: The Iran War Bitcoin Bottom & Why Retail Will Flood Back

[SPEAKER_02]: All right everybody welcome back to the crypto 101 podcast presented by Gemini your bridge to the future of money and we as the United States are at war with Iran How is the war in Iran going to affect crypto? [SPEAKER_02]: How is the war in Iran gonna affect Bitcoin normally when wars and giant political things break like this across the world? [SPEAKER_02]: All the markets start to dump fear people want cash people want bonds.

[SPEAKER_02]: They want treasures itself sell sell sell [SPEAKER_02]: not the case. [SPEAKER_02]: And we're going to break all that down for you today on this episode. [SPEAKER_02]: I have my friend Brian with we have a whole plethora of things to go through. [SPEAKER_02]: But the number one topic we're going to break down is how crypto and how Bitcoin are being affected currently by the war in Iran. [SPEAKER_02]: And we're going to go over the macro markets as well.

[SPEAKER_02]: Because at this point in time, we feel like there's a lot of clues that are correlated around the S&P 500, the bond market, the Equal Aid S&P. [SPEAKER_02]: We've got a ton of [SPEAKER_02]: some deep diving that Brian did around how I ran the country deals with Bitcoin and maybe how that could affect the price or at least some fun facts that you need to know for all your research to make your own decisions.

[SPEAKER_02]: This is the crypto one on podcast and I welcome in Brian. [SPEAKER_02]: Brian, welcome to the show my friend. [SPEAKER_02]: Thank you for doing it with me. [SPEAKER_02]: How are you doing on this Tuesday? [SPEAKER_01]: Who what an intro man.

[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I know you're fired up to jump on today right before the rundown and was like, I'm feeling pretty fired up today and we went on to go probably five ten minutes you and me talking about everything happening in the market and we're like, man, we need to save this for the rundown, we're pretty much ten minutes into the show without even getting going.

[SPEAKER_01]: You can see, uh, well, there's what I [SPEAKER_01]: Excitement maybe not the best turn, but there's a there's a lot going on right now a lot of things to be paying attention to and it's going to affect a lot of macronus a lot of crypto prices and we're here for it to break it down [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, there's a lot going on and again, it's not something that is, like you said, it's not exciting, but it's just, there's just breaking news left and right over the weekend.

[SPEAKER_02]: Unless you're living under a rock, you're aware that the U.S. has opened attacks and air strikes along with Israel into the country of Iran. [SPEAKER_02]: We don't necessarily have any takes on why, what, where, and the reasons behind it, we just have to react to what's going on in the markets. [SPEAKER_02]: That's what this show is about. [SPEAKER_02]: And interestingly enough, I guess we can start out.

[SPEAKER_02]: We're going to mix, usually you always pull up coin market cap when Brian's on. [SPEAKER_02]: So interestingly enough, I think we'll start with that, but it all, it all bleeds together here. [SPEAKER_02]: So I'm going to bring up the Bitcoin chart here.

[SPEAKER_02]: We have the one week and the I guess it was early Saturday morning over the night Friday night the the operation if you will started and then the Bitcoin did a bottom tick in the middle of the night at like 215 a.m. Eastern on the 28 Saturday morning.

[SPEAKER_02]: Um, you know, you're kind of sitting there. [SPEAKER_02]: I remember kind of like waking up me and like, oh, my God. [SPEAKER_02]: I got all these notifications. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm like, here we go again. [SPEAKER_02]: Like this is the flush that like, I didn't, I did not take any action personally. [SPEAKER_02]: And again, nothing we say here's personal financial advice for anybody. [SPEAKER_02]: It's educational nature.

[SPEAKER_02]: But like, I kind of remember waking up Saturday morning early again. [SPEAKER_02]: All these notifications. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm like, oh, here we go again. [SPEAKER_02]: This is the flush. [SPEAKER_02]: It's going to break 60. [SPEAKER_02]: It's like we're going to World War III. [SPEAKER_02]: Um, but I was like, let's monitor the situation. [SPEAKER_02]: and it had a nice bounce off the bottom there.

[SPEAKER_02]: And then once we got to like mid-after new, it was announced that I had told the leader of Iran, I guess they got the main guy that the U.S. government was trying to get in the market as a whole kind of took that as maybe a little bit of alleviation. [SPEAKER_02]: Like, okay, this operation is going good. [SPEAKER_02]: It's going quick for at least what they want to do. [SPEAKER_02]: Bitcoin started kind of rallying back. [SPEAKER_02]: Saturday in the Saturday evening.

[SPEAKER_02]: And again, I think it's always fun to look at Bitcoin in the crypto market specifically when these operations, which usually do happen over the weekend. [SPEAKER_02]: They try to kind of keep it when the news wires are a little more quiet than normal. [SPEAKER_02]: So the operation happens over the weekend and bitcoins the only thing that trades again to remember the stock markets closed. [SPEAKER_02]: So it was interesting to watch that rally Saturday night and then into Sunday.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, we even, I think we could to be kissed seven and nowhere 69. [SPEAKER_02]: We got 69 K nice. [SPEAKER_02]: And then we might have even kissed 70 and now we're retracing a little bit into the 66 to right now trading at 68. [SPEAKER_02]: But on the one week, you see this let's summer here by my friend. [SPEAKER_02]: And after you one week, bitcoins up 6% [SPEAKER_02]: during what summer calling like, hey, the could this turn into World War III?

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, we're going to talk about it a little bit, but this is US Iran. [SPEAKER_02]: Iran's not some, again, they're not a global powerhouse, but they're not, they're not a not for nothing country. [SPEAKER_02]: They have, they have weapons, they have some pushback. [SPEAKER_02]: They have the backing from Russia and China, which is something that could piss China off.

[SPEAKER_02]: Like, you're going to talk about, but just your overall take, what did you learn from the weekend about the Bitcoin price action? [SPEAKER_02]: How do you feel about it?

[SPEAKER_01]: I, whenever I heard that the news of the attack and I ran, I thought we were going to flush to the 50s, you know, I'm just so conditioned to any sort of news, we get bullish news and it feels like we've gone down and then when we get, you know, next war war three type headlines [SPEAKER_01]: I thought we were a flush a lot harder. [SPEAKER_01]: So I was personally surprised to see that we kind of kept in this range So we've been talking about for weeks right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: I think you and Brendan have I know I've been kind of screaming like feels like there's a range between like 60 and 72 a sure we can kind of get out of those ranges, but that definitely feels like the chop zone for some time and

[SPEAKER_01]: you know we touched all the way to 70 after a lot of these big headlines we're hitting so i was surprised by that uh i don't think we're out of the woods yet i think there's going to be a lot more volatility in the markets i know you know you wake up today pretty much the only thing last time i checked you at the price of bitcoin up and on my screen add the price of oil [SPEAKER_01]: So it was just curious what oil was trading at and it's up almost 8.9% right now.

[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, the straight of Hormuz was closed. [SPEAKER_01]: That's guy, you know, caused, you know, the price of oil to kind of continue to go up more likely in a lot of other asset classes are going to probably bleed out. [SPEAKER_01]: I, the stock market last time I checked his down, gold was down. [SPEAKER_01]: So you know, it's uh, it's something that I think we've been kind of waiting for.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we've been talking about like these strikes on I ran and Pauli market for weeks and months now and it's, it's kind of just waiting for it to happen. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm, I'm, I'm no war expert. [SPEAKER_01]: I don't want to get into the geopolitical reasons. [SPEAKER_01]: Why?

[SPEAKER_01]: But, [SPEAKER_01]: Iran has some ties to China, they have some ties to Russia and while I was saying to you before we even jumped on, I got China's probably pretty ticked right now about how all this happened and what's going on, you know, I could I could build a thesis around where they could sell some, you know, your strategies and buy

[SPEAKER_01]: asset classes like gold and, you know, something along those lines because they've been doing that for a while now and I think that a little ticked off on what's going on, but overall I was surprised that we held this range. [SPEAKER_01]: I think we're going to kind of move sideways in the chopstone for some time, but it's it's. [SPEAKER_01]: I don't want to say it's nice. [SPEAKER_01]: What's the word I'm looking for here, Tvo?

[SPEAKER_01]: It's good intel to know that like, all right, these strikes have happened. [SPEAKER_01]: It sounds like it's gonna be a little bit more, it's not gonna be a weekend war. [SPEAKER_01]: We've seen through those, it's like, Venezuela, it sounds like the United States is saying this is gonna go on for a little bit longer. [SPEAKER_01]: So we're gonna see some volatility in my eyes, but that doesn't make me shy away from what's going on in the crypto market.

[SPEAKER_01]: I do, [SPEAKER_01]: not financial advice. [SPEAKER_01]: I do really like Bitcoin kind of in this range to dollar cost average in personally. [SPEAKER_01]: This is personally what I'm doing. [SPEAKER_01]: We could certainly flush down lower. [SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, we always talk about that. [SPEAKER_01]: But I do, I don't hate it in this range for some time to, you know, get some catalyst to move forward.

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think we're going to have plenty of opportunity to dollar cost average in. [SPEAKER_01]: I don't think we're seeing any God candles to a hundred anytime soon. [SPEAKER_02]: that totally agree and Brendan and I have talked about it on the pot of building some of our longer positions having some fun maybe looking out with some leaps and then buying spot.

[SPEAKER_02]: So it's like it's a time to you know, I think we've kind of covered it well through this draw down through this quote unquote bear market that we've experienced in 20 the end of 25 and

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, the opportunities there to kind of recalibrate and understand where you want to be and what asks that you want to accumulate, but in the short term window, there's just a lot of interesting kind of notes and I've been covering on this show of the software stocks right so Bitcoin got caught up into the software. [SPEAKER_02]: If you listen to this show, I don't want to beat a dead horse because you understand that, but the most interesting thing for me, the newest updates.

[SPEAKER_02]: is how if I pull up the IGV, which again is that software ETF, the last five days, up 4%. [SPEAKER_02]: I just showed you the last last week for Bitcoin, up 6%. [SPEAKER_02]: So what is this telling me to have a software? [SPEAKER_02]: What is it telling you? [SPEAKER_02]: It's telling me that there's again, if there's a global outbreak of global work, and it can all this stuff go lower, absolutely. [SPEAKER_02]: where the nobody has a crystal ball.

[SPEAKER_02]: Nobody, you know, is going to tell you if anybody tells you they know exactly where something's going they're lying to you. [SPEAKER_02]: And we don't do that here. [SPEAKER_02]: But the clues are telling us something. [SPEAKER_02]: Hey, global, you know, global crisis world where, you know, three on the line possibly here in the sense of, you know, what's going on around the world. [SPEAKER_02]: And these stocks are up in the last five days.

[SPEAKER_02]: And the only thing up more is oil. [SPEAKER_02]: which is is really interesting and you know and so that says like okay the sellers have already sold they've already sold on you know the fears of AI are maybe there's some ins clearly there's all there's always somebody always knows right probably market shows is that but you know that they they knew that this you know war was coming note that [SPEAKER_02]: this this whole decision to go into Iran doesn't happen in 72 hours.

[SPEAKER_02]: This was planned for dated over weeks, if not months.

[SPEAKER_02]: And I'm sure, you know, I would even say if we want to, you know, you don't, I don't want to say tinfo hat necessarily, but like, all right, we're not going to do this during the Olympics. [SPEAKER_02]: So like they have this whole plan from, you know, January 1st was like, hey, in 26, we're going to do this, but we're going to plan it. [SPEAKER_02]: We're going to run our training exercises. [SPEAKER_02]: We're going to get ready. [SPEAKER_02]: We're going to let

[SPEAKER_02]: like it that's not a crazy take so people know this and then so it's like okay take your winners what are the highest flying winners if word gets out and some you know behind closed doors and you know we all know the Nancy Pelosi tracker you know she knows when to pick the winners I'm sure some people know and and tell insider circles of what to sell so whether it was an AI caught up or whether it was a pretence of war sell off like it's it what this tells me is like hey

[SPEAKER_02]: They're in less there's new information around the AI trade around the software trade around global crisis like the sellers, the sellers have already sold, they've already sold out a Bitcoin, they've already sold out of this tech, you know, software ETF in my last point, I'm going to bring up the S&P 500 so the S&P 500. [SPEAKER_02]: is obviously the top 500 companies of market cap.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so year to date down to 1.5%. [SPEAKER_02]: But then if you go over to the S&P 500 equal weight. [SPEAKER_02]: And so what that means is if you do an S&P 500 ETF, the S&P 500 is weighted to the market cap.

[SPEAKER_02]: So like a meta Apple Microsoft, you know, those companies are going to be weighted more in the S&P, whereas the S&P 500 equal weight is like, hey, if you just took an equal piece of the 500 companies, [SPEAKER_02]: And so the equal weight is up 3%. [SPEAKER_02]: That's 1,500 down 1.5 equal weight is up 3.5%. [SPEAKER_02]: That's a huge delta for these type of larger indexes. [SPEAKER_02]: And so what that tells me is that the money is not leaving the stock market.

[SPEAKER_02]: In fact, the S&B 500 equal weight is basically, like I said here today, so I mean, it just hit an all-time high at the end of February. [SPEAKER_02]: And then we're, you know, 27th all-time high. [SPEAKER_02]: And then we roll into war, so it's selling off, you know, with everything else. [SPEAKER_02]: So that makes sense.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's telling me that, hey, as much as the money's left on these AI trades and the selling of the software, the selling of crypto, it's not leaving the market entirely, it's not running to bonds, it's not, you know, totally running to cash. [SPEAKER_02]: The market's just moving around. [SPEAKER_02]: The money's moving around. [SPEAKER_02]: And when people are truly, truly, truly scared and don't want to be in the markets, then you'll know.

[SPEAKER_02]: Then there's a huge sell off and the, you know, the equal weight isn't at all time high. [SPEAKER_02]: So I think there's a lot [SPEAKER_02]: to be, I don't want to say necessarily positive. [SPEAKER_02]: It is a scary time out there and we've had a huge blow for sure, but it's constructive. [SPEAKER_02]: It just feels like a constructive time. [SPEAKER_02]: So I want to hand it back off to you, Brian.

[SPEAKER_02]: You had some stats about just kind of Iran specifically in the Bitcoin realm. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, um, I think we knew this a little bit, but I dug into the numbers a little bit and you know, give or take some estimates here, but it looks like I ran was like a top five top 10 Bitcoin mining country in the world.

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, and they say they're between two to five percent Bitcoin hash rate, which is really interesting and sounds like in 2025 that about 7.8 billion give or take. [SPEAKER_01]: Bitcoin and that was to bypass some sanctions and whatever they were utilizing with it so I don't I just found that interesting honestly because they were you know 5% of the Bitcoin Hasherite.

[SPEAKER_01]: I don't think that's very effective Bitcoin network and we'll probably have some outages there and what's going on But you know just just a way to kind of correlate or pull this back into the crypto world It was certainly interesting, but

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, everything you're doing on a ran, we obviously want to say that we want what's best for the world and what's best for people overall, and we're not experts there, but it is interesting to see how these macro events are due effect the market, affect the market globally, and then when you correlate it back to crypto, you know, 5% of the Bitcoin hash rate. [SPEAKER_01]: I was, I was a little bit surprised that that number was as high as it was.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that that those are some interesting facts for sure. [SPEAKER_02]: And again, I think it's something to monitor. [SPEAKER_02]: I think the sanctions, you know, vault, evading the sanctions are the most, you know, interesting part of the use case for, you know, I ran, but I don't think that. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, there's not enough money there to trigger some, you know, global sell off. [SPEAKER_02]: What did you think?

[SPEAKER_02]: I think you were saying that gold's interesting to watch here. [SPEAKER_02]: Big coins interesting to watch here because, you know, some of the, the counters to, you know, the US making this move is, you know, adversaries of Russia and China China specifically. [SPEAKER_02]: has been noted to like, hey, we'll sell, you know, we'll sell off, you know, technology, we'll sell off stocks, then we'll sell off treasuries, like we won't buy US treasuries is kind of a counter move.

[SPEAKER_02]: So is that something you think correlated to Bitcoin versus gold or just something to keep an eye on? [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's more I'm just keeping an eye on it. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not one of those people that really like go after like it's now time to buy gold. [SPEAKER_01]: It's now time to buy Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_01]: I look at both assets really right now where the prices are probably pretty attractive. [SPEAKER_01]: I could build a case for both.

[SPEAKER_01]: I feel more comfortable with Bitcoin because of, you know, my history and just where I think it's going and just the upside overall. [SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, I think gold could be interesting here because of, you know, I could see China selling a lot of US trees and buying gold. [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, that's something that seems to make sense. [SPEAKER_01]: They've been doing it for some time.

[SPEAKER_01]: But from a crypto standpoint, I think Bitcoin looks very attractive here. [SPEAKER_01]: One token, and we don't have to get into this. [SPEAKER_01]: We'll probably talk about another run around down. [SPEAKER_01]: There's been a lot of really interesting tokens, all to have been lagging behind slightly, but HyperLick with hype is up like 20% on the week, up 4% on the day, up over $30.

[SPEAKER_01]: And that's a lot of it's you can trade perks of gold, silver, and copper over on hype, and it's been getting a lot of action. [SPEAKER_01]: And we talk about this kind of in these volatile days, these volatile weeks, one of the tokens that seems to perform really well is hyper liquid. [SPEAKER_01]: And again, not finding it to advice for anybody out there. [SPEAKER_01]: I'll disclose that I do hold a healthy position in hype and a healthy position in Bitcoin.

[SPEAKER_01]: But those are a few assets I've just had my eyes on recently how they've been reacting to the current market. [SPEAKER_01]: Bitcoin and gold, hype looks interesting to me. [SPEAKER_01]: You can build a case for a lot, but they're all kind of center around the same thing. [SPEAKER_02]: I saw this stat. [SPEAKER_02]: It was like hyper liquid made in like $2 million in fees and like one day from their trading.

[SPEAKER_02]: Again, if you're a part, we love doing the podcast for you, but again, for hyper liquid, it's something that our team has covered on the VIP calls on the newsletters. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, where it has been, you know, doing the research and putting out a bunch of newsletters on that. [SPEAKER_02]: So if you're being in the community and if you love the podcast, you love Brian, you love Brendan, you love Bryce. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, as always, there's a trial down there.

[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's like a $1 trial for crimnation. [SPEAKER_02]: There's a $3 trial for Brian's group, momentum money makers with Brian and Joe. [SPEAKER_02]: So if, um, [SPEAKER_02]: I can't we add here here's the thing. [SPEAKER_02]: I think if you we had Brendan on for his, you know, technical analysis spectacular last Friday and that cohort was open. [SPEAKER_02]: And I was like, hey, you know, obviously, you know, it's our job to tell you to check it out.

[SPEAKER_02]: But I was like, now I think that was the time. [SPEAKER_02]: We did a little bit of technical analysis. [SPEAKER_02]: You a little bit of strategy. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, we feel like this is the opportune time to be figuring out and getting the research to

[SPEAKER_02]: you know make those decisions and so if education and more you know knowledge is what you're looking for check the links below join the community you get more access to us literally every single day um but i want to i want to bring up will transition and start diving more into the crypto specific stuff for the rest of the show we have a big rundown um i we tease this on Friday as well as Brendan we have our interview today with Robin Hood

[SPEAKER_02]: Um, you'll hand curve out front of the show. [SPEAKER_02]: Of course, uh, is joining us back again. [SPEAKER_02]: And, um, so we have to do a hard stop at like 1150-ish.

[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, so if we don't hit everything on the run down, Brian's going to come back later this week. [SPEAKER_02]: So we're going to start doing our, you know, our kind of, um, our tidbits here hitting them one by one. [SPEAKER_02]: But whatever we don't finish, if we have to cut it short, we'll be back later this week. [SPEAKER_02]: So, I'm the one that's been saying, hey, you know, comparing it to the AI stocks, comparing crypto and Bitcoin to software.

[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I'd say, you know, I don't agree with YouTube. [SPEAKER_02]: You're crazy. [SPEAKER_02]: What do you know? [SPEAKER_02]: Well, let's listen to other people. [SPEAKER_02]: So, from Pantera's, Dan Morhead. [SPEAKER_02]: We all know Pantera capital. [SPEAKER_02]: We've had them on the summits. [SPEAKER_02]: We've had them on the, the podcast. [SPEAKER_02]: Um, you know, this guy's, this guy's in OG's made a ton of money in the space. [SPEAKER_02]: So, let's listen to his take.

[SPEAKER_03]: Um, how cryptos being valued alongside AI and software next at the top 10 AI companies and they're trading about 20% over their long term trend and crypto trading at a 50% discount to its long term trend. [SPEAKER_03]: So it was a kind of relative value investor. [SPEAKER_03]: I think crypto is very cheap relative to AI at this point is a cheap relative to [SPEAKER_03]: just normal see. [SPEAKER_03]: I don't know. [SPEAKER_03]: I think it is.

[SPEAKER_03]: Cryptos come off 50% from its highs. [SPEAKER_03]: What it's expecting that. [SPEAKER_03]: And it's literally at its seventh percentile value against this eight-year trend average. [SPEAKER_03]: So, you know, there've been a few times it's going to a little bit from prison. [SPEAKER_03]: It is versus this trend. [SPEAKER_03]: But right now it's about as cheap as the get. [SPEAKER_03]: Also 93% of the time it has been above. [SPEAKER_03]: historically where it is right now.

[SPEAKER_03]: Exactly. [SPEAKER_03]: And one of the things that's just wild about crypto is every investor that's owned Bitcoin for four years has made money. [SPEAKER_03]: Over the entire history, and I've never seen an asset class like that. [SPEAKER_03]: So as long as you have a multi-year view, this is a fantastic time to get it.

[SPEAKER_02]: There it is straight from Pintara Capital undervalued compared to, you know, some of these AI stocks all for stocks that are also, you know, pulling back so I thought that was interesting another stat that I found of a mean to bring this up for a couple weeks, but we just had so much to talk about. [SPEAKER_02]: The change in Bitcoin ownership this year seems to be astounding for 2025. [SPEAKER_02]: It's like individuals are selling and we've kind of covered that.

[SPEAKER_02]: We saw some old ancient whale accounts offloading. [SPEAKER_02]: But again, getting shaken out in that volatility of October into the end of the year, you know, individuals are selling and businesses, funds and ETFs and governments are buying.

[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, you pair this kind of macro stat at 2025 along with kind of the clip you just heard and kind of the thesis that I think our team's been building around where we are in the space again, it's time to educate and time to, you know, make your own decisions financially, of course, we can't tell you what to do there, but if you're a researcher and you're gathering all this information, this feels, this feels, it feels good, it feels constructive, that's my word of the day Brian, constructive, it feels constructive, you're

[SPEAKER_01]: I'll tell you a couple guys that aren't those individuals have sold it's uh well we probably like to have sold the top and buy back a little bit lower you know we could always make a little bit stronger trade but uh I think this is a pretty impactful slide that we talk about all the time you know retailers kind of moved out they they got a hit hard I mean some of them bought 70s 80s 90s 100 and then they they's experienced a first you know 50% pullback which we've lived through a few times but

[SPEAKER_01]: But the overall thesis is still as strong as ever. [SPEAKER_01]: The fundamentals are strong as ever. [SPEAKER_01]: And I align very, and the same park is Pinter's CEO right there. [SPEAKER_01]: I think what he said is quite accurate. [SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, anybody could be wrong, but I don't know. [SPEAKER_01]: Personally, I feel like all these businesses and countries and states and funds just doubling and tripling down on the crypto world.

[SPEAKER_01]: Of course, we're seeing a pullback here, but that's a big opportunity in my eyes. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not crazy. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not crazy. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm really not crazy, man. [SPEAKER_01]: Well, maybe. [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm not crazy enough to like blindly just keep bidding into an asset that I don't believe it.

[SPEAKER_01]: Like I will tell people on the run down if I lose faith or there's like some catalysts here of like we're like, I don't know if we're gonna recover.

[SPEAKER_01]: you know that there's something here that doesn't make a lot of sense to me in a line but everything that it feels like this is a good opportunity again we're just going to keep saying because things happen we could go a little lower but this feels like you what you were saying with the software stocks and with the crypto world does feel like we're finding this local bottom.

[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, I'm not putting max leverage in, but I feel personally comfortable to doll cost average in and there's a lot of, you know, we're just showing stat after stat where, you know, it feels like it's scared paper hands are selling right now and the diamond hands are adding and we're going to maybe we'll be eating in a couple years thinking about how this is a great opportunity like when it hit four grand during COVID scary times, but man should have backed up the branch truck and bought as much as we could.

[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's all, again, it's all relative to your situation, your timeline, I agree with you if things change and, you know, we're not going to feed you crap if we don't believe it, but I think it was, I think this was a good gut check in a way and that's well, that's how Mark, it's work like you're always like, it just feels up forever.

[SPEAKER_02]: We tried to talk about that. [SPEAKER_02]: I know in the newsletter we had like, [SPEAKER_02]: some euphoria newsletters and just trying to break that down. [SPEAKER_02]: We talk about, you know, it goes both ways. [SPEAKER_02]: When your uncles, Kai told that story of my uncle, called, you know, shitty buy. [SPEAKER_02]: I was like, oh, maybe I should sell a little bit in my condo. [SPEAKER_02]: And then the same thing when it's at the low, all your friends start calling in.

[SPEAKER_02]: They're like, ah, [SPEAKER_02]: going down 15% and not buying that crap so it goes it totally goes both ways for sure. [SPEAKER_02]: But one thing I think building off all this the Pantera and this graphic as well is Rao Paul, front of the show. [SPEAKER_02]: Of course he'll be I think I booked him for next week. [SPEAKER_02]: So just [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, these are big boy guests dude. [SPEAKER_01]: These are like people now would be kind of nervous to like meat.

[SPEAKER_01]: I would be like, ah, this is cool. [SPEAKER_02]: Everybody has tea, but he's a friend of the show a lot. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, in front of the show, we're out on will retail be back. [SPEAKER_02]: Two minute clip here, but I think worth the listen. [SPEAKER_00]: The fastest possible returns.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you go with the thesis that most retail investors, the Robin Hood crowd, [SPEAKER_00]: and the Coinbase crowd, they're generally in their 20s and 30s, they generally can't afford a house, they're generally working two or three jobs, and they're looking for a way out. [SPEAKER_00]: And so they will speculate they're also a gaming generation. [SPEAKER_00]: So losing your life is not the end of the world because you lose it in games and you start again, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: They grew up on gaming, [SPEAKER_00]: And it's a logical risk taken culture when there's no way of getting out of the trap, unless you take risk. [SPEAKER_00]: So they just move where the returns are. [SPEAKER_00]: So they're all in Robinhood trading options on Palantir and tech stocks. [SPEAKER_00]: And then golden silver start going, they start trading that. [SPEAKER_00]: So if the returns start coming back to crypto and we know that over time crypto is out performed.

[SPEAKER_00]: I've posted a chart on X recently about the gold crypto ratio. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, since 2020, I think crypto a bit coins up from gold by 87.5%. [SPEAKER_00]: So as soon as crypto starts moving, it has that super massive black hole effect because it performs everything and it just sucks in capital. [SPEAKER_00]: So they will be back. [SPEAKER_00]: They didn't leave crypto forever. [SPEAKER_00]: They just lost their stake at the casino.

[SPEAKER_00]: And if they've got a stake, they went elsewhere to the different casino. [SPEAKER_00]: And they'll come back to whatever casino pays the best odds.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's exactly, that is exactly what a couple of our episodes were weeks ago when we were talking like, you know, we had to talk about how gold was flying on and like, you know, it was crazy, it got crazy silver as well and then we had that one Friday, I think it was with Brendan, I'm not sure if you were on was that day, it's silver dropped like 25% any day on Friday. [SPEAKER_02]: It was like a Friday.

[SPEAKER_02]: And so, [SPEAKER_02]: It's like, okay, store of assets, silver goal goal was down to 10, 12%, silver was down 25% on the day for one point, like crazy market cap type moves, and so, okay, yes, the fundamentals of these assets, you know, you can do the research and have the taken, and I don't think any of them are necessarily wrong.

[SPEAKER_02]: but did gold and silver turn into a casino absolutely does the crypto casino turn on a lot absolutely absolutely and so that's a great take it's like hey it when it's working everybody loves it when it's not and something else is working people are gonna go elsewhere that's that's how it is that's how it is

[SPEAKER_01]: I haven't heard people talk about investing in copper for five years and then over the past few months more people have come on like you should check out copper it's an excellent to go we love copper here copper this cup of that it's it's speculating you know they see there's a chance that next big win that next that next move up and I'm okay with it I'm going to I speculate too you know I try to follow with the momentum is that something that I've always done really well

[SPEAKER_01]: But I think what Rao Paul said there is very, very accurate. [SPEAKER_01]: And I never really put it together. [SPEAKER_01]: I'm going to steal a lot of those analogies. [SPEAKER_01]: Because it makes a lot of sense to us. [SPEAKER_01]: You know, we're, I'm not a big gamer, but we, with a lot of people in this world are gamers. [SPEAKER_01]: And they understand kind of going back to zero and starting over trying again, trying to different Rao problem solvers.

[SPEAKER_01]: less people nine to five more people that are trying to, you know, launch careers on social media or, you know, self-clothing online or collectibles. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's just a different way of mind.

[SPEAKER_01]: So whenever there's opportunity and we start to see money flow back in and there's a chance to get that next big opportunity, [SPEAKER_01]: and crypto is one of the biggest ones out there in the way trades makes it so intuitive and easy to for our generation it's gonna flow back so everything he says i'm really aligned to and i'm i'm definitely stealing a lot of those points yeah was it was truly a great clip and i believe i haven't booked for one day so uh this guy i

[SPEAKER_02]: It's just whale hunting whale hunting again. [SPEAKER_02]: I said I said it's like, hey, like, you know, when companies and prices are down and companies are building That's the ones you want to be a part of markets down. [SPEAKER_02]: What is cryptocurrency on London? [SPEAKER_02]: It still puts out multiple episodes a week of of the rundowns It's still getting the best interviews in the space.

[SPEAKER_02]: So if this is something that you guys like and you appreciate on YouTube throws a thumbs up If you're new Bottom right hit the logo and subscribe Drop a comment Let us know what you guys think we're always [SPEAKER_02]: We're always interested in hearing from you guys and appreciate the listenership. [SPEAKER_02]: Something I thought was interesting. [SPEAKER_02]: I know you're my prediction market super cycle guy.

[SPEAKER_02]: Now the NASDAQ is looking to launch its own prediction market.

[SPEAKER_02]: So again, it's falling under the regulation, the SEC, not the CFTC. [SPEAKER_02]: Interesting. [SPEAKER_02]: I think through this prediction market, that's a huge change from the other ones. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, that's that's interesting. [SPEAKER_01]: I didn't pick that up actually.

[SPEAKER_01]: I saw this news trending yesterday and not kind of was like Prediction market super cycle and a lot of reasons why we we talked about prediction markets and it's a very interesting use case moving forward But did not see that regulatory framework and we've well, we're really trying to hammer out these regulations or prediction markets.

[SPEAKER_01]: She knows from everything from insider trading [SPEAKER_01]: to just legality and lobbyists of like exactly what they're doing and what's falling under the CFTC was falling under the SEC. [SPEAKER_01]: So I think prediction markets are going to be you know, have a much stronger framework and maybe this is the maybe the NASDAQs know something that we don't know about why they want to move forward with the SEC and not the CFTC.

[SPEAKER_01]: I have to do a little bit more due diligence behind this. [SPEAKER_01]: But again, further to throw another log on the fire about prediction market super cycle, they're not going anywhere. [SPEAKER_01]: I'll tell you that much, maybe they'll look a little different. [SPEAKER_01]: They not going anywhere. [SPEAKER_02]: And your point of enforcement, insider trading, Calcy just issued its first enforcement action, finding it Mr. [SPEAKER_02]: Beast affiliate.

[SPEAKER_01]: uh... a former governor candidate for insider trading so uh... i don't know i'll just take toss it to you you're my your my super cycle guy uh... i i didn't i didn't prep i know about this story about the mister pretty beast insider it was like uh... what was that the beast games [SPEAKER_01]: He like new certain outcomes and new certain challenges they were going to do and just really and I think the amount he wagered was quite low I wish I had that but we're talking like

[SPEAKER_01]: thousands of dollars and you got dinged for it. [SPEAKER_01]: So, uh, kind of a bad look there, but again, when you play with these prediction markets and someone has the outcome, you have to know that you're playing with some insiders. [SPEAKER_01]: Like, that's just the game we're signing up for, right? [SPEAKER_01]: Unless it's a binary event.

[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's, it's, it's, [SPEAKER_02]: It, I guess it's all relative like we kind of talked about this before where the insider is going to be the tell to let people know the truth. [SPEAKER_02]: So we want to know the truth on certain things like Mr. [SPEAKER_02]: Beast games doesn't have any outcome to the life. [SPEAKER_02]: you know, the average everyday life of people.

[SPEAKER_02]: But when it comes to, you know, whether it's elections or, you know, the war, there's a people getting riled up on that prediction mark. [SPEAKER_02]: It's something happened with Calshy. [SPEAKER_02]: I didn't really dive too deep into it, because it's just, you know, it's not, uh, uh,

[SPEAKER_02]: event that i want to dive into of like should they be paid out or not i mean we're talking about you know though the horse of war so we're not going to dive into that but what's what's right and what's wrong like mr. b's games if you have some insider information on that you can't make money on that but then over here like they're not going to prosecute people that know

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, things inside the government like that you're probably never going to know who those people are. [SPEAKER_02]: So it feels it feels like such a gray area. [SPEAKER_02]: But I think, you know, as a business as a business if I'm Calcy, and I have, you know, huge partnerships. [SPEAKER_02]: I think they partnered with like CNBC, the official, you know, Benny market of a business channel like you're going to have to try to show.

[SPEAKER_02]: that you have a player playing field. [SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, it's just like anything else. [SPEAKER_02]: There's going to be people that are going to be, you know, gun fore and get, you know, slaps on the wrist or harder financial punishments or whatever the regulators want to do. [SPEAKER_02]: And then there's going to be people that get away with it. [SPEAKER_02]: To be the same as, you know, insider trading with the stock market, right?

[SPEAKER_02]: So, I think that's where we're going to end up. [SPEAKER_01]: How much do you think he waited? [SPEAKER_01]: I found it. [SPEAKER_02]: I found it. [SPEAKER_02]: So for the Mr. [SPEAKER_02]: Beast, and it was like, who wins these games or something? [SPEAKER_01]: He was a video editor, and he was editing the unreleased video edit, so he knew what was happening behind it, who the winners were of certain challenges, but across all the markets, how much do you think he wager?

[SPEAKER_02]: He's a video editor from Mr. [SPEAKER_02]: Beast. [SPEAKER_02]: I'm going to go with like 150k for grand. [SPEAKER_01]: I got wager for grand to win $5,400 profit. [SPEAKER_02]: That looks fine. [SPEAKER_02]: How's that? [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, not that you know, Billy, how's that a red flag? [SPEAKER_02]: That doesn't seem like a crazy. [SPEAKER_02]: I thought it would be volume that sticks out.

[SPEAKER_02]: It's like, hey, for Mr. B's games, the average bet is, you know, $500 to $1,000, [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, they can calcium K Y C's. [SPEAKER_01]: So they probably K Y C, my guy art art um, uh, computer probably used his real K Y C. I don't know how else do you would get caught because I don't know. [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we're not shady like that, man. [SPEAKER_01]: We're just we're just good old boys trying to make a couple bucks in the crypto market.

[SPEAKER_01]: You know, [SPEAKER_01]: You know, maybe a prediction here and there that's you know that we don't have insider info on but yeah, he was smacked with 15,000 dollar fine pretty much total penalty of about 20,000 bucks and banned for two years and he got reported to regulators so kind of a slap on the wrist for straight up insider trading but for and seems like [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know. [SPEAKER_01]: He might be playing a few fried short of a happy meal.

[SPEAKER_02]: Hey, somebody always knows I didn't miss this on the sheet, but you like for a polymarket had a record for $70 million in trading. [SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I was like on R with the election because somebody knew that obviously somebody is somebody always knows and there were people at least six inside of trading links profit around a million dollars. [SPEAKER_02]: That's related to the conflict. [SPEAKER_02]: So we won't deep dive on that.

[SPEAKER_02]: But it's just more information for the people. [SPEAKER_02]: Again, if you're not into the betting markets if you're not looking at them, you don't even have to play or wager. [SPEAKER_02]: It's just it's where a lot of information, you know, you can gather and it could be a part of your. [SPEAKER_02]: are small for education for making trades and investments.

[SPEAKER_02]: So that's why we bring it up, even though the topic this time isn't as deep dive on, but a record day for poly market on par with the election. [SPEAKER_02]: So it's something to note, truly, truly is we'll do some quick hitters to end the show here. [SPEAKER_02]: Sui, some old coin news to spot Sui ETFs have debuted in the US with

[SPEAKER_02]: uh... can air capital you've interviewed him a couple times friends the show uh... uh... on nazzak and gray scale uh... with the listings and uh... they both are going to offer staking rewards so again more exposure to the uh... general markets for all coins will be interesting to continue to monitor these uh... obviously now at the market down you're not going to see tons of inflows but uh... nonetheless uh... it will be uh... added to our repertoire to keep tabs on any thoughts on suy brun

[SPEAKER_01]: It seems great, you know, good or can a capital rocking out another ETF man? [SPEAKER_01]: It's they're knocking them out left and right, you know, so he has its place in this world. [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know what the price action or kind of what else has been going on with it recently, but I have a small bag I believe. [SPEAKER_01]: There you go.

[SPEAKER_02]: uh... another fun one that we've talked about is chained link in this was interesting again this is something i want to talk about for a couple weeks uh... let's see the chief counsel of the SEC's crypto tax force this man is going to be is going to be that tie it tailor linden and he uh... [SPEAKER_02]: he worked at Chainlink for a while.

[SPEAKER_02]: Chainlink is sending him off to the SEC to be Chief Council of the crypto task force and he was formally and fully had a Chainlink worked on Chainlink. [SPEAKER_02]: So if you're a Chainlink person, you definitely, I think you like this, right? [SPEAKER_02]: Good. [SPEAKER_01]: The link, Abel? [SPEAKER_01]: The link Marines, man. [SPEAKER_01]: I know I was kind of just trying to get [SPEAKER_01]: I know, I like Chainlink a lot.

[SPEAKER_01]: I actually, we had an in person meeting and we did a little fun token battles and Chainlink was one of my picks until Rohit, uh, body bag me famously, but, you know, we'll talk about that another time. [SPEAKER_01]: But I like Chainlink, I think it's, uh, I think it's a strong product, a strong coin. [SPEAKER_01]: It's the infrastructure of all things going on. [SPEAKER_01]: And this relationship can't really go on notice.

[SPEAKER_01]: Right, I mean, the guy was a chaneling for five years like that. [SPEAKER_01]: That's not a negative unless he knows something that's really negative, but I don't think that's the case. [SPEAKER_02]: Oh, I mean, I think it to me, it means that you have an open, uh, you have an open line to the SEC's crypto task force to, hey, if there's a problem, you're going to get tightened up.

[SPEAKER_02]: Or if there's some, you know, regulation that maybe the chain link crews looking for, it's, you know, not a guarantee per say, but you have an inside track to present your case. [SPEAKER_02]: And yeah, five years is not a short time. [SPEAKER_02]: You know, that's, that's, that's a lot. [SPEAKER_02]: It's a lot to work at one place. [SPEAKER_02]: So I'm sure he has some relationships. [SPEAKER_02]: Last one of the day before we got a sign off here is Bitcoin's stuck in a rut.

[SPEAKER_02]: but J. P. Morgan and Jamie crypto diamonds says that new legislation could be the ultimate spark again that's what everybody's watching around the clarity act and you know [SPEAKER_02]: and along with all these big banks, which we continue to cover and we'll continue to cover, keep making their moves in crypto and blockchain, being the future, there's a lot riding on this clarity acted feels like everybody has an opinion on it.

[SPEAKER_02]: I saw one today, we'll bring that later in the week and it was the Cardano founder, it was not happy with what it looks like right now. [SPEAKER_02]: Both sides have a lot. [SPEAKER_02]: It feels like there's a lot of stake. [SPEAKER_02]: But at the same time the administration feels like they need to pass it to get some type of progress in this space before before midterms. [SPEAKER_02]: So any thoughts?

[SPEAKER_01]: a little hope you might throw on the sheet for us, I think we have a good possibility of Clary Acke and done this year. [SPEAKER_01]: I know there's a lot going back and forth between banks and yields and everybody has their own opinion about it, everyone has their own vested interest, but it's good to see Jamie Crypto Diamond, you know, kind of mention to get out there.

[SPEAKER_01]: He's throwing it out there in the news circles, getting it kind of flowing, you know, it's better than him calling Bitcoin a pet rock. [SPEAKER_01]: and completely back and off of it. [SPEAKER_01]: It's just a little bit of hope and we can drink Jamie Crypto Diamonds fuel on the fire and we'll see. [SPEAKER_01]: Until it's actually inked, that's when we can start celebrating.

[SPEAKER_01]: But a lot of Crypto companies, a lot of people in the government, a lot of banks have a lot riding on this clarity act. [SPEAKER_02]: So I think it's a big deal.

[SPEAKER_02]: are in understand what's actually in the bill and you know they're always changing and adding the closures and changes and this and that so we got to wait until it's built and then we got to really break down everybody's take on it because there's going to be a lot of people that love it there's going to be a couple people that hate it there's going to be people in the middle and so you know that's going to be our job obviously if you guys as well parse through it but

[SPEAKER_02]: You know, as much as I hope it passes, I don't know. [SPEAKER_02]: There's been so much talk and debate about it. [SPEAKER_02]: We really want to pass, as we really got just dive into it and learn from it to see where it's going. [SPEAKER_02]: Because it does feel like it's shaping up to be a huge piece of legislation for blockchain, for crypto and to have the traditional banks so involved, means that there's gonna be given take. [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, for sure, man.

[SPEAKER_01]: So I think there's greener patches to head for, but right now we're fighting a lot of geopolitical stuff, fighting a lot of things in the market, and we'll probably go sideways for a little bit, but not not terrible. [SPEAKER_02]: the education and understanding where we are in the markets and how to, you know, play sure whether they're bets or investments long-term. [SPEAKER_02]: Because, you know, we do have a lot of fun. [SPEAKER_02]: I mean, punch the monkey.

[SPEAKER_02]: Again, if you're a listener, a long-time listener here, you know, you got some huge alpha with punched the monkey recently, getting like a 6, 7, 8x. [SPEAKER_02]: And you find that and there's always opportunity, you know, with you guys in the research and

[SPEAKER_02]: a hyper-liquid again is another one where there's tons of opportunity in all markets and that's what we do here we try and find it for you again just wanted to bring you the news today we had some good quick hitters too but it was you know sadly what's going on around the world is a huge part of the markets and so we had to cover it right now I'll be back later this week we'll figure out a time whether it's Thursday or Friday and we promised to bring

[SPEAKER_02]: an update all around if there is needed of course but we'll bring some fun to we'll bring some momentum money makers some meme talk we'll get in the trenches and have some fun later this week as well we really appreciate everybody listening thank you all as always and we'll talk to everybody later the week bye bye everybody