You're listening to the back home network presented by home field apparel. Hi folks, welcome back to Crimson, kescott here with you excited to bring back, Joe from 131 Sports. Before we get there, just want to do a quick. Shout out to our friends, over at home. The Peril. They are sponsors of the home network, which Crimson cast is a part of great college gear, always coming out with new stuff. So check it out. Home field apparel home promo code is a ahome gets 15% off
your first purchase. It's funny. I was talking about Drexel on the last podcast and now it's like they're I'm getting emails. A cool Drexel stuff and Drake stuff. I think also as well, so check them out. But now we bring in Joe, from 131 Sports. Joe man. How you doing? I'm doing. All right, I'm a Still a little bit flustered with the results that that unfolded earlier this week, but especially the friendly reminder coming and I, you pod, have it just sting a
little bit that much more. I honestly am a little bit of a cynic thinking that you're bringing me on the spot just be like, hey, I'm bringing on the Michigan guy to needle of a little bit, but now I'm doing. All right. How are you Scott? I'm doing well, yeah, actually, we've already talked for 20 minutes, I forgot to hit record, so I'm not going to make you go through all of the IU. Ian stuff twice because then I'm officially in dick territory.
So we'll keep it easy. I'll just say I was at the game with my buddy, Danny, and he was like, we're not going to close this out and they didn't close it out and like I'll say it's, you know, see like I said to you before but you know, it's I've never been the I know more than the coach guy because coaches obviously you know what they're doing, you know, deal of D1, level coaches, obviously are not stupid and I always think of my dad who's just like why do they shoot He throws more.
I'm like, I'm sure they practice it. Like I'm sure I'm sure it's not like Archie Miller, just forgot to practice free throws for four years. That said, watching the team come out three, straight times with the chance to win the game and Michigan and seeing three plays that are kind of like, wow, that's that's, you know, again, just for my cheap seats. It does make me wonder like, what is going on there, on the game, coaching side on the
Michigan Sidelines? Yeah, no. It's been the story of our season certainly as a Michigan Fan, I've almost become a little bit numb to it because it's happened over and over again where we get put in close games and and can execute and can't finish. I saw an interesting graphic at one point regarding Michigan's performance in close games. This was before the two most recent overtime losses and Michigan was something atrocious
to an 8-3. Nate I don't know exactly what the criteria was to Define it as a close game you know, possessions or margin or Or went, you know, like if it count over time, any overtime game, what have you but Michigan's record has been atrocious and you think with the experience that they have with the assistants on the bench? I know you want still relatively new as a head coach, but, you know, martelli's on the bench. He's got three decades of
experience. They got a lot of holdovers from the B-Line era that they'd be able to dial up. Something in the late game situation, from an X's and O's perspective that works better than whatever. The Frankly trashes that they've run the last few games. So and that that leads us to the Big Ten Tournament. You got Michigan playing Rutgers. It feels like that's you know from my perspective feels like that's a winner you know loser leaves town match.
The like the loser is not going to make the tournament. I think it's a chance. Rutgers might still make it. But you know again your site 131 sports.com, one of the highest-rated on the bracket Matrix year in year out. How do you see that game as that? Is that a winner winner, get in and loser goes home match. The, the term that I've seen, that's been in Vogue for that game that I subscribe to is, it's a play out game. So, the, I think the loser of that game is certainly out of
the field. So, right now, I have my most recent Bracketology I've Rutgers is one of the last four teams in and I have Michigan not in the first four output in the next four out. So one of those last one of Eight teams on the outside looking in. So I think if Rutgers wins they're very likely going to solidify their spot in the field. Pending bid Steelers and some, you know, like a Deep Run by some teams that are currently on the outside.
I think Rutgers likely makes it in with a win Michigan. On the other hand, I think when just keeps their season alive, losing their certainly out when Extends their season, so they have some hope. But I do think that the bare minimum for Michigan to receive a bid is that they would have to be truckers and Purdue and it might even be the case that they need to make a run to the Big Ten Championship depending on.
Like I said, the all of the the games don't happen in a vacuum that think that's a that's a scene from Last time and that's a theme that will have this time to you know. Like there are so many moving pieces up. You get to selection Sunday that determine where what teams make the field where everyone gets seated and, you know, Michigan certainly in my opinion needs to win, two games here, both Rutgers and Purdue to Merit at large consideration.
And it might even be three depending on what unfolds elsewhere as sad as it is for me to say, is as a Michigan fan, that cat that had to got to watch to go. Alden Road, quad, one wins slip through our fingers, multiple times, not even just one game, one time, it was multiple games multiple times. So yeah, in multiple weeks a lot of a lot of close games. Yeah, it's, you know, I think that's what you look at. Michigan. It's like just some not a lot of Tier 1 wins.
And and yeah you get to a point to where I do think rightly, or wrongly you kind of get seated in these areas, then it's like you have to start jumping teams. It's not just about your resume, it's about other teams resumes than like, You start getting a bunch of bids dealers in there, the path just continually gets gets harder and harder as look at the rest of the Big Ten Tournament. I'm going to save some of my India, we had a bunch of we sent out for questions.
Got a bunch of good questions, a lot of them Indiana based. I'm curious, you know, Purdue again, always screwing up Indiana's plans, I want the South Region for Indiana's sake and it was kind of lining up perfectly when Purdue was the one in the west or the East. It feels like Purdue's kind of sliding. Down to the to do you see Purdue having? If they make a run, could they get to the one or? Are they pretty well locked into that too? No matter what happens?
I live right now and if you look at it on the bracket Matrix you know I'm just one bracket ologist granted I've had you know pretty pretty solid performance in the past but in aggregate you look at the bracket Matrix and it's kind of a coin flip between UCLA and Purdue you have. I think both teams have an opportunity to earn that last
one seat. I think you're pretty solid that Alabama. Houston in Kansas are going to be your other three ones, and UCLA and Purdue are kind of playing for that that last one spot Purdue as an opportunity.
If they, you know, like make the the the Big Ten championship and UCLA bios out early, they have that opportunity to solidify themselves as that final one and So I think it really depends on what the committee does with what I perceive as frankly, a coin flip between UCLA Purdue you know look if it also depends on so UCLA had a pretty major injury with Jaylin Clark so there's presidents in the past for the committee.
Moving teams around on the s-curve based on their perceived impact of a of an injury especially they ask More information on the player status and when they're going to return and they have that go into where team is going to be seated for better for worse frankly, I don't know that.
That's the appropriate approach to, you know, there's some there's an argument to be had that they that team performance up until that point should be way more impactful than guessing, how teams going to perform with a player that's injured. But they have leaned into that a little bit, so that certainly could impact whether or not Purdue or UCLA, get that final one seed so that, you know, like
he the dream. Yeah. The dream scenario is Purdue gets that last one seed and goes out west so that Indiana doesn't have to go out west to get the right the the the silver lining of that. If they do get put out west, they will get UCLA's there. One. And I personally think that UCLA would be the weakest one seat especially with the Clark
injury. You know, if Purdue gets that final one seed than Indiana, can't go out west with them and so they end up getting put in a region with one of the locked in ones that I think are stronger teams in that scenario. If I'm a phenomenal, I'm an IU fan, you know, like I'm probably cheering to get Kansas, I guess Kansas Got a lot of experience in a lot of close games, but I'd rather play Kansas than Bama or Houston and I think that the, the advanced metrics would
probably support that. And I mean, fortunately, we did that once and didn't get was in Lawrence, didn't go too. Well, wouldn't be. I mean, but if we play them, we're playing Kansas City, which is, which is similar to Lawrence and I think that's where we played them in 93 when we got bounced in the regional final. I think that was also Kansas City. Is Kansas if memory serves right? I just I'm looking at Louisville like I just Louisville is so tasty for an Indiana fan.
If we can get that as our second way, we got a lot of stuff to go between here and there, the other big 10 team in on that side of the bracket that I've been curious about is Michigan State. In the, in the discussion, we
had that was unrecorded. We were talking about, you know, what, the committee might be looking for this year based on the early, the Early seating selection and we were talking, you know, maybe it's the last 10 games, Michigan, It is come on of late, if they're still in that, you know, 786 range of seating. If I look at the bracket Matrix right now, like they're kind of a six seed, it feels like, you
know, they have the operator. I feel like they've been kind of under seated, for a lot of this process. Their resume is pretty good. What do you see? They're kind of long term pot. Like, if they could go through beat, Purdue knock through to the to see, like how, how much at stake is for Michigan State in this tournament.
I think Michigan state has a lot at stake, frankly because they have the opportunity, you know, if assuming that if Wisconsin can beat Ohio State and that first round the, with the winner of the Wisconsin, Iowa game is either a tournament team if it's Iowa, or at least a borderline tournament team, if it's Wisconsin. So they have that opportunity of what would be the winner of the Iowa Wisconsin game.
And then what is if its chalky an opportunity against Purdue with they can Make the Big Ten Championship. I think they would solidify their spot as a six seed. And if you look at outcomes for getting to the second weekend, the the outcomes are much better for 60 drawing a three than a seven drawing or two and definitely much better than a triangle one. So there's a lot at stake because if Michigan loses the first game, they play, they have
the risk of Michigan State lose. The first game, they play, they have the risk of dropping to an eight seed. If they win a couple games, they could rise to solidify.
Their spot is a six seed and that just creates the opportunity when you are in that, you know, that mid-single digits range, your kind of expectation or goal is just make the second weekend and the the outcomes for six seeds are much greater than seven or eight seats just because you avoid those ones and twos for your second game and frankly honestly the same Same phenomenon unfolds and as a Michigan fan, I got to experience last year. Much to my joy.
Is that 11 being an 11 seed, is typically better from a make the second weekend or make a run perspective than it being a 10 seed or nine seats. So I was actually pretty happy that that Michigan didn't send any higher than they did and we're able to get 11 and face face Rick Barnes to always chokes and March. Yeah, I agree except For the 11 when he got to play the first four sucks because then we went from Dayton to Portland in 36 hours and had to play.
That was not fun, but that's why you don't want to be in the first four. Are you, are you, you know, when I look at the, you know, resumes of Indiana versus Michigan State, you know, Indiana's kind of been in that three, four, five range Michigan. Say, it's like I said, it's been a little bit lower. It feels like Michigan, State's a little bit under seated. Now Indiana's, probably has better tier won't, you know, net, one row.
Oh twins. Michigan, State's got a tier 3 loss which is not ideal but their predictive Czar pretty in line. I'm just curious when you look at from a bread it's too kind of random teams that don't match up perfectly. But when you look at it you know two teams like this, you know, have you seen Michigan State under seated or can you explain why I like, why is there like a three-line seed difference there?
Thusly, I would shock this mostly up to the parody and the thin margins between all of these seams right around that that ballpark, you know, the you these resumes are between that four and seven line. Honestly. Michigan State's probably the cut off their mean, you can maybe throw in a Northwestern as also being comparable. But you look at a lot of these resumes.
You look at Iowa State, ECU Creighton Michigan State Indiana. You got teams that have less than Sterling records, but have played really tough competition. They look good in the net. They've had a lot of quad One games. They've had some, a lot of quad, one wins those teams are, it's it's going to be on the committee to really dive into the not. Just look at it, seems on paper and dive.
Into how they view individual wins and find some marker, or heuristic such that they can distinguish these teams because it's, it's dark clothes between, you know, with that Indiana's who I have is the last four and Michigan State. Why have is the number 27 seed? I think that the gap between those is smaller than people realize.
Yeah, I would agree. So focusing a little bit on Indiana, you know, the thing that I felt good about the draw that we Art is - you know, Minnesota making a run through all the way to the semifinals. It does feel like assuming kind of a chalky Maryland first round game, it feels like we're in, you know, there's not a lot of bad losses in our future territory and, you know, we're right on the edge of that for line, but it feels like I think we're kind of locked into a for
either way. It has question of, you know, couple different ways, Matt automat, Roth, appreciate Ur Love the name on Twitter. Why would a first round loss to Maryland in Nebraska knock I you to a 5 seed, question by Aaron at camera 26 on Twitter. What is our seat if we lose on Friday night? So I think I think we got a four seed pretty well locked up but I'm curious your thoughts on it.
So they're they're certainly as I said earlier with this being an evergreen statement, there are a lot of moving pieces. So it's really impossible to say. Everyone wants to view it in a vacuum. Binary, we win this happens. We lose This happens. But I have with, I you like I said, there's I just talked about how thin those margins are between all those teams in that area and with IU as what I perceive as the currently, as
the last four seed. You put that with the fact that the committee members will certainly be watching the game as part of their quote unquote. I test. Which is something that I don't believe, I kind of went on a tangent and the Diatribe, last time I was on about how I wish the committee's composition was much different. It was people that cared more about watching the games and watching these teams but they, you know, like um, Conference
tournament time. They do more that I test and they see those teams and especially with this committee like we alluded to earlier, putting some onus on recent performance. I think that there there there's an opportunity that that I you could fall to a 5. So if I'm an IU fan, I'm paying. Type of on top of I, you strongly, wanting to win that game. There are other teams that you don't want to pay attention to.
If I think that there they will lock in a for with a win regardless of who it's against you know like if if Nebraska stuns Maryland and they get Nebraska just win that game when that game it's an extra win even if it's not a good win that's just an extra wind to put in the win column so that Numbers a little bit higher, if it's whatever, and that's something, you know, my partner, Gala and I were talking about the other night is that, you know, and you can speak to this as well.
It's like the committee doesn't just Sunday morning. Start putting this together like I would say tomorrow or Wednesday, they're they're meeting their vote. You know, everything has to be a vote there. They're probably seeding the tournament right now and then moving people around. So the fact that we're playing that game Friday night at 9:30 at night, you know, we've already And probably slotted where we're going to be slotted.
So, you know, the idea of, you know, it's not like I do think they watch it and has some bias see. But I also think that there is a bit of an anchoring process that happens where it's like we have these teams kind of slotted and it's going to be hard to start. Moving to three seed lines one way or the other for a team like Indiana when they play that late in the process and then so many other things are happening
around them. Yeah. Certainly I would say that. With that in mind, I would pay attention to upcoming results in other tournaments to determine if India because Indiana just by not playing, might slide like you said, if they have an anchoring point, if that anchoring Point going into Friday's a 5, then they might need to win to get back to a for saying that in the scenario. Where say st. Mary's knocks off the zags? I don't know. I was hoping to be why you would
come back last night. Like, I'm watching that like a Saint Mary's loss would have been helpful. Yes, super helpful, you know, pay attention to basically, if you just look at, if you want to use my website, which obviously, I'm going to advocate for you. Look at the teams that are in the 5 line, you know, Miami if Miami's the one seed in the ACC tournament if they hold serve and win the ACC tournament that there's an opportunity that they might bump.
Indiana down if India, especially if Indiana loses that first game or TCU and Iowa State who have similar resumes where it's, You know, like a lot of losses, but they've played a lot of high quality opponents. A lot of quad One games, you know, I have been that pulled up right now and tcu's literally one spot ahead of Indiana with a couple more quad, one wins and a
couple more quad, one losses. So if you were to compare them to at ECU or an Iowa state, which Iowa State's has nine, quad one wins, which is just unheard of half of their Windsor quad one. Those two teams. If either of them, especially with the depth and the quality of teams that are in the Big 12, if you have of them, make a big 12 run, then I think the four seed is in Jeopardy. So I know that this kind of contradicts what you were saying and I hope you don't take offense to that.
No, you have to defer to me as the expert. No, I'm just kidding. But I would say, I would say the likelihood of falling to a 5 seed with a loss to marylander Nebraska is probably honestly greater than 50%. Unfortunately. From just because of all of those teams that are knocking on the door, right there. If if Indiana is, in fact sitting at that last four seed spot right now. But I think that the likelihood of being a four seed with a win in that game is 95% something
obscenely high. So I think it's any and I think is playing to lock in that for seat or, you know, like a loss would probably put them out slightly worse than a coin. Flip to move down to a five when were you have them? And I think a lot of other people do kind But they the tail end of that four seed line on the s-curve. It does also feet and, you know, let's just make it chalky, we get Northwestern, which is a, that's a good non-conference
win. If we play them in the semis, even Illinois, Penn State, like any of those teams are great. It's not, that's not going to move the needle, the only game that would move the needle as if we play honest, think Purdue or Michigan State in the finals. And maybe just Purdue is the only team that would really move the needle for Indiana. I'm not even sure all of that is enough. Oof to jump us to a 3 because I think we have to jump going off
of your bracket. Like Virginia Xavier Connecticut are all ahead of us in the for line and then you need one of Kansas State Marquette. Gonzaga Tennessee to drop. That's a lot of movement for what would be honestly like a 36-hour staying for Indiana basically again we're waiting playing late which is good but I think it also works hurts us. I'm curious your thoughts on that. Like is does Indiana have that upward Mobility or they're just
too many teams to jump. I I think that there are too many teams to jump and I'll say that, you know, like with. So if you look at the three of the teams that are ahead of them, someone immediately out of them, you have Connecticut, save your Marquette. That's three big east teams.
They're not going to be able to jump all three because one of those three is like going to win, is going to win, or make the make the finals and and do enough, especially with the quality of the Big East that that they will stay ahead of Indiana. Yeah, Gonzaga with, you know, like being in the finals of West Coast Conference and playing see Mary's there, which wouldn't be a bad loss. I don't think that they're moving off the three line. I think the The Hope could be that Virginia losses.
And this is still this is The Longshot Indiana would have to make that run and you'd have to see an early loss for Tennessee and an early loss for Virginia. So that moves them up what two
spots. Yeah. I mean I'm still thinking and then hopping the other two big east teams so that only one of those three big east teams remains ahead of them than they could get that last three but I just I'm shooting it as a sort of pipe dream as if I was an Indiana fan der to get all the way back up to A3. Yeah. And we you know we had our chances like don't lose by 20 to that home to Iowa, don't do that. If you want to be a three i-i'll ask you this, looking at the take it.
Lens away from Indiana unless it sounds like Indiana is not going to be the answer to this question. Who in the Big Ten Tournament? Do you think has the most growth in their seating ability? So like I think Rutgers and Michigan, like they obviously have the most to play for because they lose, they could be out, obviously, Purdue could get to A-1, which is big, but of the teams in that mix. Like, who do you think? Could jump two, maybe three seed
lines. If they have just a killer Big, Ten Tournament, I do honestly, I don't or, is it not possible? I don't think anybody's jumping three. I think even to honestly is unlikely, I would say. So this, this gives them something to play for. I think you could see. So right now I have Maryland as an eight. I think Marilyn could get up to a 6 if they make a run, you know.
Like if they if they beat Nebraska, if they knock off, you all, if they Regardless of who they play in the semis, because right now I have Illinois, Penn State, Northwestern all is tournament teams. So they'd have an opportunity to win three games to of, which would be against tournament
quality opponents? That, you know, like depending on what shakes out elsewhere, I think Marilyn has the opportunity to hop up all the way to a succeed if they can win the Big Ten tournament or at least make the finals. The part of me, part of the reason that I say that, is that if you look at Maryland's resume, they were alive for the pretty heavily. I'm on their performance, on their home court. So if they can demonstrate, it's all at home, everything they've done is at home.
Yeah. Right. Look at that they had had stayed on the ropes and and Happy Valley and then they choked on applesauce to take a phrase from a particular radio DJ from. I don't know if you've ever heard of Mike Valenti's a radio Jay and Metro Detroit, he is a very when we when we're done here. Look up. Mike Valenti chokes on applesauce Notre, Dame rant, one of the most famous sports fans of all time. It's on YouTube so I took that phrase from it, there's the chokes on apple sauce.
I use that all the time. I'm a pretty avid golfer. So whenever I'm about to, you know, break 90, break 80 or something. And I double bogey, the 18th hole, I choked on applesauce, so as long as at any rate, Eight Maryland Show Breaking 80 Brigade. He's good broke. That's that's that's a good day
anybody's book. Go ahead and sure but Maryland Maryland. Yeah, all that is to say they choked on apple sauce a little bit against Penn State demonstrating their sort of inability to win away from home. So if they can demonstrate by going on a run in the Big Ten tournament that they can win on a neutral court against quality opponents, then I think they have an opportunity to move up a couple seed lines coming there there there. Resume is bananas. I mean their predictive Czar
pretty good. I mean they're you know, average average of everything is 27, you know, but you look at their wins. They have, you know, a tier 1. 51 wins gets proven Indiana, both at home neutral site against Miami. You got to go down to at Minnesota and at Louisville are there only two Road wins this year. Everything else is home or neutral Court. And then just a ton of you know, rode Tier 1 loss is just a, it's a wild profile.
Yeah. Road wins against the worst team in the Big Ten and the worst team in the ACC. Yeah, and Alvaro 81 246. That's that's a, that's an ass kicking in my book but doesn't really matter. It's a tier 3 game against a really bad team, but, yeah, it's like they are, they just need to kind of do the. Hey, we're playing a home game even though it's in Chicago, like, they've got to just pretend like it's a home team and they do that. They're with In this National Championship. Sure.
So what let's let's kind of wrap up with this with a couple other questions about Indiana. You know, one other question came from Debbie Meyer at Frankenmuth Franken fake. Debbie Meyer on Twitter at fake Debbie Meyer. Took me a little bit to get that out. What are the chances? I un zip in Orlando, I'm going to expand on this question, just to give you a little more room
to breathe here. You know what I personally think that, you know, Columbus is going to be out, I think Xavier probably takes that from us. We're just too far down on the for line. So, you know, do you think we go to Orlando? I look at At from a location perspective again, I'm kind of focused on like I want to get that Louisville sub-regional. So my question second part is like do you think that's possible?
And then how important do you think those kind of location decisions are going to be for a team like Indiana? Or should we just be focused on who's the weaker one seed?
I mean it depends what what fans would prefer in terms of what if you account for Miles traveled which certainly plays the the any advanced model that projects the outcome of the tournament which I have one of that does a company account for what's called euclidean distance which is just a fancy way of saying, as the crow flies, distance that distance Miles traveled does impact your outcomes. So being closer to home and playing a tougher team in exchange for being closer to
home more enjoyable as a fan. Certainly because you might be able to your, it's not prohibitive to travel to the game, but it's a tougher team to be so I mean you can look at it. You can look at it both ways frankly, you know to as a fan I think and At somebody, if I was an Indiana fan and I'm sitting there as a team, that's my opinion, like a borderline 45 team right now, your primary goal is to get out of the first weekend. You know, make the amazing Swiss
meet this. Make the sweet sixteen and everything after that is just icing on the cake. I know that's hard with the history of Indiana. If you go back decades and decades, the Bobby Knight are around and not going to really, that's that's that would be great. And he recently the last 20 years that's a Welcome change. Yeah, absolutely.
And so in that vein, the sub-regional Pod that you get put in and the proximity to Bloomington is as much more important than the regional in that vein of making the sweet 16 to Circle, back to the question in terms of what's what would be better? Play a weaker one in a region that's farther away or close better one and a closed region. I mean I think it's I don't think that there should be a
preference. I think either way and you and you have us in Orlando in your room most recent bracket so it sounds like to answer the question. We got on Twitter your chances are right out, least pretty high. We're going to end up when Orlando based on how those get, you know, hand it out. Yeah, I would say that if I were to just sign a sign an arbitrary likelihood, I'd say there's a probably about a 90% chance that I you ends up in Orlando or Albany those two regions.
Annals based on how the bracket is sort of shaking out right now. Orlando, if you look at what I have in my bracket right now the every four and five game takes place in Albany Orlando just because of the regional. The the geographic preferences based on the sub-regional pot, availability of the teams that are on the one, two, and three
seed line. I do think that there's an outside shot of something like Greensboro or Des Moines, but I think that There's maybe one in a thousand one in 10,000 that Indiana ends up in in the dream scenario of Columbus. So, you know, like I think who's, who's in that, in that scenario who is taking Columbus from us. I mean, obviously, you know, it goes by preference. So, you know, let's just say, I'm going off of your current bracket today, you know, Alabama, you have is the one
seed. So they, you know, for those who don't know, like they get to basically pick and you correct me if I'm wrong, but you know, my understand is they get to pick the sub-regional and then, you know, our The committee picks the most advantageous sub-regional for them and then Houston and then Kansas UCI. So on so forth. Who in your in your kind of snake draft who's taking Columbus ahead of us as of right now Marquette? So that's going to be that that's the tough part.
Is you're going to the. That's why I think it's a it's kind of a pipe dream to be in Columbus is because I think that Marquette takes Columbus Xavier certainly takes Columbus, if
they're ahead of you. I mean, even Connecticut, Light take Columbus. If someone else takes Albany, you know, if there's there's certainly opportunities for Columbus to be. You might even get in a scenario where this is a very strange one, but where you have Gonzaga take Columbus because if you think about where gonzaga's and their travel time as the crow flies to Columbus is going to be shorter than it would be to Orlando or Albany.
And and they So, so that would be a wild scenario where Gonzaga takes Columbus from from Indiana, but there's I mean, your understanding is correct. Basically, it's as my understanding is your understanding is correct. If my understanding is correct, they look at it as the crow flies, I actually have never heard the committee and might be
that. I've just not saw it and they have actually describe this, but I've never seen if the committee looks at just as the crow flies, Drive time, or flight time and proximity to Regional airports. I don't know. I know that they take distance into account, but I don't know when those methodologies what they take into account. So I do know that they try to put teams in order on the s-curve, you know, like obviously each sub Regional gets
to two pods. And once those are taking up, then you get to the next most advantageous Regional. The other thing that they do just for informational perspective, for those that are listening, is the top four seeds. Are you may have heard this term before protected seeds in the sense that they will not put them or they will, I don't think that it's not, but them, they
will the way they phrase. It is something like, they will try their hardest, not to put them at a geographic disadvantage in their first round game.
So you're not going to get a scenario where If I'm trying to do this quickly off the cuff, but you're not going to get in a scenario where this is a bad example because it's not going to happen, but Indiana has a four seed who I currently have them playing Utah Valley. In the most recent bracket, you're not going to get us an area where Indiana has to play Utah Valley in Denver or Sacramento, because that would be a geographic disadvantage for them.
So they avoid they would send Utah Valley somewhere else. So that Indiana plays it. A team that doesn't have a geographic advantage in their location. So, but in that in that vein, we had a Twitter question from Daniel Corral, how much would vanish it to get a four seed.
So you avoid the dreaded 512 matchup that question but also just on top of that, you know, in your bracket you have Miami Florida playing in the same pot as us with a 5 seed and that becomes a geographic disadvantage basically.
Because, you know, we're Indiana gets to pick Air quotes their spot and then you kind of circle back around and then, you know, the committee tries to place those next meal five, six, seven teams in places that make sense is, you know, from a geographic possession perspective, is it better to get a 5 seed? If you're Indiana, maybe you get Columbus that way. But then again, looking at Daniel's question then, are you getting stuck in that dreaded 512 matchup.
So, I'll handle listen in chunks. First and foremost with Miami going to Orlando. Do once they get beyond the floors, they start just putting the they start trying to put teams in their geographic region as close as possible and the protection for those top four seeds only last for the round of 64. So they would they wouldn't bat an eye at making Indiana play in Miami with a geographic disadvantage because it's a 45. So, they only protect them the based on bracketing procedures
as the written today. They're only required To attempt to protect these top four seeds for the first round, or the round of 64. I guess it's defendant, I always say, round of 64 because ever since the playing games. Yeah boy go. First round is the playing games? No, nice. A first round is on a 64, but, so they wouldn't Bandai at making Indiana. Play Miami in Orlando.
Next Indiana is not just because of how the, at least, if the tournament started today and how the bracket shakes out, To a five, isn't you're going to change things because the four and the five sub regionals are the same because the for has to play into the 5 and the same sub-regional. So if they move from a four to a five, they're still going to have that same. It's probably Orlando or Albany. I don't think that that changes things, all that much to the
Twitter question. I saw that actually I got notified of that question when it was asked on Twitter and so I was Obviously, we're all familiar with the, the 512 matchup, it's a classic and the 12 seed, over the five seed upset. But I wanted some data to back it up. So I actually looked up the record of the five verses 12 verses, the four verses for 13 in the modern tournament era for seeds, beat 13 seeds. 78% of the time 5 seeds, B12, 65% of the time.
So that's a 13% win likelihood drop off.
That's massive. If you compare That 26 verses eleven six and 11 is honestly, it's I think it's I didn't I don't have this down, mark down anywhere, but I'm pretty sure it's only a couple percentage points different so the drop from for 13 verses 512 is is pretty pretty big and and then if you take it a step further and like I said about making the sweet 16 about half of the four seeds make the sweet sixteen, whereas only a third of five seeds make it part of that
obviously is just because five seeds don't even have an opportunity because they lose that first round game.
Right? I mean if your goal is make the sweet sixteen or at least get out of the first round and avoid that heartbreaking upset, it's very important to maintain that for seed just because this is, this isn't so much in the data as it is my what I've seen paying attention to the tournament and as a bracket ologist with bid Steelers and went, what's usually your 12s, are you get the entire 12 line is filled with teams that were the one seed in their conference
tournament. They won their conference tournament, Tournament dominated their conference and they're just the the best of the best of these small Conference teams. Once you get 13 line, you start getting teams, that may be knocked off the 1 seed that were the two seed in their conference tournament. That weren't the best team in the regular season but won their conference tournament to get a bid. So, you start getting some of those high-end bid Steelers that start to fill out that 13 line.
So you, the likelihood of them making a run goes down a little bit so you get higher quality conference. Hence tournament champions on that 12 line than you do on the 13 line. Typically having said that if if you don't get as many bits dealers and if you were to look at my bracket, this is another thing I looked up.
If you were to look at my bracket right out and you looked at the projected 12 versus the projected 13s and you looked at their Ken pom, the average Ken pom ranking of the 12. Is 70, the average Camp am ranking of the 13th is 78. So there's not a material difference between 12 and 13 is right now, but that's subject to change. Depending on the results of these small conference
tournaments. If you have the, you know, like the ones get upset, then you might get some, some 14s, some current 14s, get pushed up to 13, just to fill in that spot with these bid Steelers. So, you know, like as it sits right now, I don't think that there's as a material Difference between the 4 and the 5, but that's subject to change based on how these small conference tournaments play up.
What's funny about the for line is and I'm also guilty of this as well but I think a lot of people are looking at that Iona 13 seed and they got to get there but it's like with playing, you know, being a four-seat, it's like hey here's what you're protected seed in the tournament and your reward is playing a team coach Rick Pitino. It's I think it's just scaring the heck out of everybody and and I think that's going to be like, I've already calling it.
I think that's going to be everyone's upset. Pick is whoever's playing Iona. So I appreciate you not having us matchup against them in your bracket. Yeah, I mean, it's have to even look at all right, I haven't playing Connecticut. Yeah, so good luck to Connecticut but honestly, if I'm a, this was another question that I was notified about on Twitter regarding good. Bad matchups to look out for in the tournament.
And regarding the, the twelves in the 13th, if you look at the twelves and 13s, that typically stun the fours and fives. You generally see teams that have potent offense has especially teams that are led by talented guards. Usually that are that can get hot from Deep. So three point shooters. So based on that, I think that there's two particular teams neither of which are Iona that I would want to avoid and I reference one of them.
Last time I came on the pot and that's Oral Roberts who already punched their ticket. They're going to be, I think that they're 100% locked into a 12 seed and they have two guards and Maximus and Issac McBride that can score a ton of points. They're good. Deep the there. If you look at 10 p.m. or Robert says, great offensive efficiency, there are team that I would be worried about if I was if Indiana were to fall 2005.
Because I'm pretty sure they're locked into a 12 if they stay as a for the 13 seed that I'd want to avoid and they might not even come out of the Mac. You could see Kent State or somebody else come out but if Toledo does hold serve and come out of the Mac. They I don't Don't let me see a head that had it pulled up. I'm searching it right now. Toledo's offensive efficiency, adjusted offensive efficiency is eight in the country on. Can't bomb.
Granted. There are other their defense efficiencies 276. So Indiana should be able to put up a boatload of points. But if you get into a shootout with them, they have, you know, like they have four players who can really fill it up that can shoot that can score from Deep. They have Ray J. Dennis. Is puts up 20 a game. There are there a dangerous mid-major that you could get in a shootout with that you that I
personally would want to avoid. If I was Indiana especially for an Indiana team that we don't you know, our numbers aren't bad and our offense is not bad but we just don't shoot a lot of Threes we don't really have an explosive offense, think we have a good and efficient offense but when you you know you're looking like yeah I'm looking at some of these numbers for or Roberts like their 33rd in the country and Tempo 26 adjusted offense on Ken Palm. That's a frightening
combination. That's a team that can play fast and score and it's something Galen talk about his last bracket racket podcast. You know teams to look out for in the tournament. The last couple of years, we've definitely seen a shift where teams who have good are adjusted offensive numbers and good Tempo. Primarily do better than those teams that are just great on the defensive side now that doesn't matter. Not that it couldn't change, but it's just history.
History. Recent history has shown that teams that have really good adjust of offenses, are doing better in the tournament. So I think it's a great place to look. If you have any other, you know, picking the bracket suggestions ideas, I will say, for me, the one thing I've always had success with is I try and look at like, who I look at things kind of from a larger perspective and like going into it unless something drastically changes. I think Kansas is a very
well-rounded team. And so I look at it, like, I'm probably going to pick Kansas into my final four and I kind of do that and then build the bracket around that and then I'm more willing to take some chances on the 45s in those turd. And those situate on in that side of the bracket because it's like you can grab a cup. Some early points with getting upsets correct. The trouble is if you're wrong and then it's like you bounced, you know, a four seed Xavier. Who goes to the final four.
That's where it kills your bracket. It, I look at it more like all right, if I already think that Kansas is my one C is is my person out of this region to get to the final four. Then I'll build around it and I can put some upsets two lines back of that because no matter what in my mind whether Xavier is there or you know, they're upset Jour is there. I don't have them getting by Kansas. So I kind of build a brick walls in my. That's how I do my brackets.
My film out. I kind of build brick walls and it's like no matter what any team is. This brick wall and so I kind of picked my for final four teams and then go from there. I'm just curious, you know, how do you how do you do that? And you have you had success with that. I would say I've had middle and success with my I'll end with the, you know, I'll bury the lead that my success rate hasn't been awesome. Although I've normally been done pretty well in my pools.
Sure. Yeah, I mean, I don't think that there's a right and wrong strategy if you look if you dive into the numbers a little bit and plugging my own son, Right again on typically I release it Tuesday or Wednesday night prior to the start of the tournament after selection Sunday. Every year, I have an article that's titled how to win your bracket pool, and it gives you a step-by-step instructions and
how to fill out your bracket. I have an advanced analytics data science and machine learning based model that actually projects the outcome of the tournament and the likelihood it has. You'll if you You take a look at this article again, how to win. Your bracket pool is the name of the article and you can search how to win.
Your bracket pool 2022 2021. Go to my site, you'll be able to find these articles and it has charts that show each team's likelihood based on my modeling of advancing to the round of 32 advancing to the Sweet 16 advancing to the final four. When I get also, it has the conditional probabilities of advancing. So, I, whenever I'm filling out my bracket, if I'm going to be a believer, my own model, Then I fill it out based on what the model says.
So there's I do some chalky stuff earlier on, you know, like the automatic thing is Advanced. Don't don't get cute with upsets especially on the one through four lines. You know, Advanced one through four to the round of 32 Advance your one and two seeds to the Sweet. 16. Sure looks cool. If you happen to get the eight or seven that knocks off the one or two, right.
But like you said you risk losing More points because if that one seed does go to the final four, then you missed out on all the points because you had them losing in the round of 32. So it gives guidance on that and then act that identifies you know teams most likely to make your final four so you can kind of fill out your who's going to make the final four and then the teams that are most likely to Spring those eleven twelve upsets and then the last thing
it focuses on is really the the way that you distinguish self from the first round. Some people. From a bracket filling out perspective, like to think, oh, I'm going to distinguish Myself by picking this Stellar upset, that no one else picks in the 12:5 line. But that's not how you distinguish yourself, so much as having a good run in the seventh. And eight, nine games, that's really how you separate yourself
from your competition. When you're filling out a bracket is, there's eight of those every year, the 710, 89 games, and they're generally speaking about a coin flip. So you would expect, you know, I should probably get four of these Right is about the expectation, maybe five, but if you can creep into that six territory then six out of eight, right in the 710, 89 games, then you're going to have an
advantage against your opponent. So that's that's why I'd focus on and I specifically have in my how to fill out your bracket guidance. Like these are the games that where there's a team that you should definitively pick typically, out of the eight, there's usually about four that it's like you should definitely pick this team over this other one and the other forts honestly enough of a coin flip that you should have legitimately We take out a coin and flip and hope you
get lucky. I love that. Let me get you out of here on this. Joe three. Three teams that you like for the final four, but I'm going to put them in buckets, like, give me one kind of chalky team. One, you know, mid team that I would say is that, you know, three, four, five seed and then one, you know, six seed or higher based on your current bracket, I know there's a lot of games to play, I know it all depends on regions and where they get bracketed. So But, you know, give me three teams.
They're 14. And if you want another team from those buckets by those three buckets, like a chalky, you know, one, two, three seeds. The you know, mid tier 4, 5, 6 seeds, and then the, the dark horses, you know, give me a team from each of those buckets to keep an eye on. See I'm so conservative and making my predictions because my not chalky team was going to be somebody like, Texas. I'm like that. That's not, that's not chalky. So, I suppose I mean, It's hard for me too.
I'm a big being an actuary being a person that has a developed model. The advanced analytics stuff is something or that I rely on heavily and I'm sure you're going to know where I'm going with this before I even finish the sentiment but it's hard for me to not have Houston, be my chalky team, the advance their an advanced analytics darling, you know, like they played when they played Alabama. Yeah, they lost but they played them tough.
They there they've, you know, Like they was she didn't shed and Sasser and just the the play that they get and and I know Indiana fans might rub, you know. Like they don't love hearing this with Calvin cell Sampson at the Holland. Great coach. Yeah, I mean like I just think that they're they're going to be a team that's there and the final for the next the next spot, you know, the The Dark Horse team. If I have to go four, five, six, I might see somebody like a, I
don't know. Like, I mean, technically, they're there on the three but any of those big east teams, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna cheat and say that, any of that meant that that cohort of Marquette Yukon Xavier thing, any one of those teams could be on a final four, run from that
34 line. If you can count that as a mid team, I think any of them are capable of that and then if let me pull up my bracket here, and look at my, who jumps out at me, as a, as a team beyond that, that I think could make run. Hmm. Gosh. That's tough. I'm really I hate picking teams beyond that because all I number say they're like well it never has barely ever happens. You let right there? It's super memorable when it does. So people think it happens more than it does.
But teams outside of those top four or five lines, making a run to the final fours as few and far between but maybe somebody like a Man, like a if I can if I can count a 6 as a just because I said, yeah fine. But can counter six is a real Dark Horse. Am with Buzz Williams. I think they've gotten hot lately. I think that they're perfectly capable of especially with the, you know, like they just knocked off Alabama. So clearly, they're capable of being those high quality
opponents. You know, like if they get Frankly, if they're in Vegas, that's not too far, you know, like they could have some people travel from am to from College Station to Vegas and or if they get put in the Midwest and go up to Kansas City, they've got a shot to make a run. If you want to give another one, I feel like this is bad because I'm going to give a fourth Big East team, but cratons got a lot
of talent. So I think that Creighton's also capable of doing something special, if they can put it together. So I agree. I agree with you on a lot of those. I also agree with you and create, I think Creighton is going to be an interesting pick going to this because it's just hard to place them because they had so many injuries. It really screws up all of their metrics. It's not going to help their seed line but they that's a team that had they been healthy all year.
Could have been a three seed maybe but they're not and their metrics don't show it and if you just look at them on paper, they look like a succeed but they're not right now. They're a, they're going to be a really interesting case. Yep. I'm trying agree and for that I'm not I don't even need to waste any more time. I agree for the reasons that you mentioned. Yep. Joe it's been a pleasure.
Having you on here this time of year, I know you got work to do on the real job and also on the 131 sports, but I appreciate you, put it up there, appreciate you taking some time. I will get you out of here on this being, an Indiana podcast. Where do you give me top for it? Top four seeds in the Big Ten. Purdue Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan State, and just for shits Iowa, those five teams just round robin quick. Give me the team and where do you think they?
What's there, what are they top out in the tournament this year? All right? So Purdue history and you know, like they're, they're great team. I think that they're going to end up as a 2 seed, and I think that they lose in the sweet 16, of course you do. Because that Under cheering for them Northwestern. You know, I think that they to be the two seed in the Big Ten Tournament is I still can't believe that Collins was able to achieve that with this team. Boo, Boo, E, is wildly volatile
player. He could lead them farther than I anticipate but I, you know, like I think that they're probably win one and done in the tournament as a, you know, like a round of succeed. Let's see here. Moving moving down, Indiana, I think Indiana's perfectly capable of losing in the first round. I think the perfectly capable of making us Elite eight run.
So in that vein, I think that they're going to be think they're going to come out of the round of 64 and I think they're going to be in a barn burner against whoever they play and and be real competitive in the round of 32. And maybe you've you flip a coin on whether or not they Advanced to the Sweet 16 or not. I think. That they probably do. I don't think TJ D is Gonna Let Them Fall anything short of that if they're in that close game.
He's he's such a grinder. And I got to see it firsthand, unfortunately twice. And so I guess I'll say my final pick their, as they also Indiana also wins a couple and as a four seed in bhau's out in the sweet 16. I didn't know. Yeah, Michigan State I'll put them in the man. I'll put mesh, I think. Michigan state is going to as got sweet 16 potential as well. I think that they're gonna come in around six or seven.
I'll say this, I think if they end up as a 7, then they lose in the set and the round of 32. If they're able to climb up to a 6, then I think they go to the Sweet 16 and knock off of one of the three seeds. So I put that to that to that caveat and then Dresses and G's, like you said, Iowa, the the Fran mccaffery special. They're going to, they're going to get stunned. Everyone of the they're going to lose in the round of 64. So and and Fran Fran will get
attack along the way. Well, that's that's given that's even money in Vegas. Yeah. And We're Not Gonna Take Marilyn because you're not playing at home. So I know you have a hard out Joe. I really appreciate it, check out their site, his sight 131 sports.com and thank you all for listening until next time. This is Scott for Crimson cast signing off.