You're listening to the back home network, presented by home field apparel. Welcome back. Everybody Scott here with you. Have a great discussion today. With Joe from 131 Sports, you can find his sight on Twitter at 131 Sports. Just the numbers 131, or online at again, 131 sports.com. Just the numbers 1 through 10. The word sports.com, if you go to bracket Matrix, which if you
don't, you should, it's awesome. It has almost everybody who does Bracketology all of their rankings and you can see teams kind of there. Average seed line, but they have the ratings and winners every year, and Joe and 131 Sports. 2018 was the champion of the racket Matrix and currently is the six best Bracketology just having been on their 10 years with just some amazing scores. So, suffice to say, Joe
definitely knows his stuff. He also is a graduate of University of Michigan, so we won't hold that against him, but he definitely keeps up with the Big Ten as his conference of choice. So I thought it'd be great to talk to him about the Big Ten as a whole kind of get a higher 30,000 foot view of where Indiana sits the Big Ten. Bracketology, it's a great conversation.
We have some rants here, there we kind of go on some tangents as I am want to do and it's a, it's a good time before we get to that. One of the big, big shout out to our friends at home field apparel, just awesome stuff. Just the other day, I was wearing the oval, I IU crewneck, crew. Necks are awesome. They're awesome. They're also a trouble because came to realization like I just I have too many hoodies, you
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up there. So without further Ado, we'll go to Joe at 131 Sports All right, we're glad to have Joanne from 131 Sports can go to the website, 131 sports.com, or Twitter at 131 Sports. I was looking to, you know, I want to help people understand Bracketology a little bit more kind of where Indiana fits in. And oh Galen talks about this a lot but I thought it'd be good to have somebody else and kind of just look a little bit larger at the Big Ten field.
And if you follow a bracket Matrix online, one of the better sites that has a all of the Bracketology. Turns out there, they have a ranking section and Joe, you've been ranked, like, in the top five for the last, like, what 10 or 12 years, you've been really up there on your bracket projection. So, hey what? Well done and not bad for a Michigan grad. Hey, well, then that last day we had to get that jab in there.
Yeah, no, yeah. I've been passionate about this, you know, so I graduated U of M, 2012. And right after I graduated, is when I got into Bracketology, been doing it. So, it's been a decade. Jade black my rankings have in terms of rankings and where I fall, certainly have have exceeded my expectations from when I started to where I'm at now, but I don't want to let you to the toot, my horn, rather than being myself.
So I appreciate the shout out but hopefully the performance can continue and hopefully I can provide some insight that the listeners or appreciate, I think so. And it's funny. We I reached out to you right after Indiana beat Michigan, you're like, Hope you have to talk about that. And then we went ahead and lost lost at Northwestern. So you want to, if you want a
real on that, it's funny. The Michigan thing, you know, and I'll put this on Twitter for our listeners to like somebody asked me a while ago, like you know who are your top Rivals? The Big Ten it's like all right obviously Purdue. And then I took a breath and it's like well like I don't know because like it's I do is after we played Illinois because in the Big Ten Network all the talking about like you know the Rivalry the Rival. It's I don't I don't know.
Think of Illinois is a rival for Indiana and it's like who are our secondary rivals? Is. And I came to like, you know, at least right now, Rutgers has been kicking our ass. And, you know, brought Harper jr. Is dropping his balls on assembly calls court, but I was like, you know, oddly Michigan's in a weird rival because it feels like whenever we're up there up, you know, if we had the the 2012 2013 run were like we were good and you guys were good.
We're fighting for the Big Ten title, and fortunately, we've been so down so much. I'm just, I'm curious how you would rank, you know, obviously Ohio, State, Michigan State her up there for you, but where where you look at your other Owls in the Big Ten if Indiana cracks the top three or four.
So, certainly if we're sticking to basketball and being basketball specific than Michigan State far away as our primary rival, Ohio State certainly just as as, as it relates to football and being a rival school. But the Rivalry in basketball just isn't, I mean, it isn't even in the same atmosphere as it is in football. So other than just a distaste for the state of Ohio and Ohio State, Yep, that rivalry not not really, honestly, all that strong. I, it's funny that this rivalry
has really developed. I've seen this rivalry kind of flush itself out on Twitter, is the Rivalry when Illinois and something about Illinois fans. And I think it had something to do with the according to the Illini fan base, the, the ducting that Michigan performed in order to win the Big Ten title and not have to split. During the, the covid shortened season. Yep, or covid. Altered season. I should say. So some of those games got cancelled rescheduled, we ended
up not playing. Illinois played less big ten games in them, but are winning percentage was higher. So we technically were the Big Ten Champions and so between that and there was a lot of chirping on Twitter there. That, that rivalry kind of has really flourished in the last year or so, and I'm so focused on that mission. In state rivalry, that that's the primary Runway.
I don't, I mean Indiana just by dint of the fact that they've had some success and Wilson came in and there, you know, like a they're a better team than they were under cream. Other than you know, like the year where they were one seed. But then I ended up buying out a little bit earlier than I think most Indiana fans had hoped for they. They're only a rivalry in the sense of their their good team.
We that we don't want to over there not Nebraska, they're not, you know, like the just Rutgers prior to their their more recent Ascension to the actually being a competitive team. They're a good team in the Big Ten recently. So to that extent there, a minor rival but it's it's so focused on Michigan state that it's hard to go beyond the primary rival. My I get that, as funny as you're struggling. Like to hear you're thinking like, you know, who are the Bad
teams that goes all truckers. It's like, well, it's not Northwestern anymore. It's like, kind of like minute, Minnesota, and maybe bio State like Ohio State sucking wind as somebody who follows will get to the bracket stuff in a bit. If somebody just kind of follows the Big Ten as a whole, just kind of wanted to get like a larger perspective, you know, we're we're stuck in our Indiana bubble and we see things kind
of, you know, wins losses. There was a period in, you know, the after that Penn State loss in early January, where we were as Indiana fans. Be pretty freaking out. We're not in a good spot ten and six overall, but 14 in the Big Ten, we go on a five-game winning streak than we, you know, just finished a three-game winning streak, be lost in Northwestern although I think there's really no shame in that although the first half didn't look awesome.
But from a larger Point View, how do you see Indiana? Do you you know I've been I've been kind of saying that you know as Indiana fans we have a hard time kind of. We've been just trying to claw our way into the tournament. That you know we're not quite used to it as weird as an Indiana fan saying this, but we're not used to like kind of what a profile of a 45 seed looks like and to me it's like this is what a profile of a force five seed.
Looks like a team that that has some good moments has some bad moments has some good stretches bad stretches and but I think a lot of Indiana fans. Look at this season. They're kind of still scared at the you know when we had the the month-long Swoon so to speak. I'm curious how you view it as somebody who's outside the bubble, how you view Indiana because a trend line up down Sideways.
You know, what are you seeing? Well, certainly in terms of referencing last night's game, there's absolutely like you lost on the road to a, another clear tournament team. You know, Northwestern from their perspective, skipping out before I dive into the, the Indiana perspective northwestern's trending up, you know, like yeah. A couple couple weeks ago. I had them as one of the might
have even been 10 days ago. I had them as one of the last four teams in and it's just the quality of their wins the way they've shifted in the black box, that is than that and how the profile looks, they're trending upwards. I my most recent bracket that I just released prior to coming on here, I Northwestern is the seven. So there there is no shame in losing that. Especially the the like you alluded to the shame was more in the performant, the flat performance in the first half,
but there's something admirable. I know people aren't necessarily into moral victories, all the all the time, but that second half comeback and making it a competitive game. Certainly bodes well for the team as opposed to just getting house and sees. It's also helpful in booboo, he's able to just push off, you know, his guard guy to get a layup, but you know what else? Yeah, that's another conversation. Big Ten officiate fishing, any goddamn entirely, that's the soda.
I'm sure that's a whole other podcast. Yeah, disservice to the entire Big Ten when they get into the tournament but although I yes we'll get on that. I will say this is something my co host Galen has got me into and now I feel like, you know, Charlie from something steal Sunny in Philadelphia with the crazy board. If you go on to Ken Palms site and you can pull the rest, you can actually see their game log schedule.
And it is, it's bananas. When you see how many games, these guys are working where they're working them. Like they were his, an Indiana, Michigan State game. Or I think one of the rest had worked seven straight games in seven states, for seven days up to that game. And it's just like, it's it's like you, you know, we look at race tracks and Davis, he's like 24:23, you know, a young kid in great shape. And we're like, man. It's gonna be tough for him to recover again after playing 40
minutes. You know, in five days, it's like one of the 58 year old guy who's doing the seven days throwing flying Southwest from, you know. Anyway, sorry it's a something I've been noticing and it's like, it's bananas that the Big Ten allows rest to work other leagues and just work as much as they do. Anyway, sorry, Grant over. Yeah, no, that's it.
It's a reasonable rent to make. But the the, the importance of having that come back and having that game be Of from a net perspective and since the introduction of the net and the incorporation of efficiency and margin of Victory and everything that goes into where team is seated because the committee I'm going to get on my soapbox a little bit here, the committee, the composition of the committee is not what I would like to see out of the committee because it's a lot of people that don't
watch enough basketball. That see these teams on paper and make decisions, often time with some recency bias, Maybe they started watching games in the second half of February, and the beginning of March. And that's they've seen a team play once or twice and they have to be really reliant on these shortcuts in order to adequately and appropriately. Try to appropriately, see these teams. So I would really like to see again, this is me on my soapbox.
I really like to see these people that know college basketball, and watch these teams be more on the committee and less 80s and college presidents in these people that aren't watching. All these other teams that just kept rely on paper. But on paper that come back is really important because you know like going into that game, the opening line I checked this before, I came on the opening line Was northwestern by point the Northwestern with my to.
So from an analytics perspective had they lost that game by 20 then they might have dropped a few spots in the net but it doesn't look as good and every spot matters when you're distinguishing these teams on these razor thin margins. And You know, like, losing to another tournament team like Northwestern on the road. That's a quad one loss. And I've actually looked at this from a more analytical
perspective. I have a, I've rely on it a little bit, but I tend to rely on my own evaluation of these teams a little bit more because there's only so much that can go into these models but I do have a model that evaluates how the committee has seeded teams in the past at least since the introduction of the net. Net and tries to incorporate that past seating those paths eating patterns in order to make a projection of where they're going to be seated now.
And a quad one loss, is better than a quad for win. So bad winds and I don't think this will come as a large surprised anybody that's been paying attention to how committee seeds teams. You get teams that are Michigan's a perfect example, last year, getting in it, whatever we were 17 and 14 going into the tournament. Because a lot of quad one losses, they really really value just playing quality teams, even if it's a loss and close losses,
do matter. So that from Indiana's perspective last night was not, you know, like going into last night, I had Indiana as the, the top five seed and I have them as the top five seats till today. So that's just your case in point of a loss does not. Move you down to see line or wind? Doesn't move you up to see line. There's so many things and play that good losses, really?
I moved teams up a seed line because they've had a good loss and the team ahead of them on that seed line had a bad loss. So there's just it's you have to really take everything into account when when when performing Bracketology knowing that and that's something like you hit on that. I think is I've I've learned to over the last, you know, seven
or eight years I've done. More into the numbers and talk to Galen about this that it's like you know rankings like the AP rankings are just way different than Bracketology and like just because you lose the game doesn't mean you automatically lose a scene I meant.
Now what's weird is Indiana was kind of projected as a four seed in most projections they lost and the ones I'm seeing this morning, they're coming in as a five and so in this case it kind of seemed to have happened but it's like that's more just because I think they were the last for another the number 15, I do think. And like you said it's not an Vacuum like your kind of fighting with your Indiana. You're fighting with like st. Mary's, Miami, Florida. Iowa State. Connecticut Gonzaga.
You know, the problems you have is teams like Saint. Mary's just aren't going to lose that many more times gonzaga's not going to lose that many more times or they're not getting Goodwin's. Indiana is, you know, you look at the rest of their schedule, really it's probably all quad One games, the rest of the way, you know, I'm looking at it now.
I don't, I think maybe the Michigan game might be a tear to, but I have to look Kat where Michigan's and like, where they're going to be having right now, that's still showing as a tier one win for Indiana. So it's but that was on the road, it's like there's so many factors at play. It was quite work that way. I do think that the way that I will say what Indiana's starting to lose by losing that game at Northwestern as I think their path to a three seed is getting
a lot tighter. Just based on the teams above them and the work. They would have to do to get there. Yeah, they're the nice thing about the the Big Ten is the depth, I mean it's a lot of frankly. It's a lot of mediocrity from a tournament caliber team perspective because you have a lot of teams, you know, like if you look at, I'm going to pull up my most recent Bracketology, but I have Northwestern as a 7. Ayah was a seven, Rutgers is a seven Michigan State as an, a
Maryland as an eight. So you have a A lot of those mid tier teams and I don't have Indiana schedule in front of me like you do, but those opportunities if you, you know, like if you win all of the games, you're supposed to and then steal game or two that you're maybe not supposed to win, then maybe I think that they're stealing could be as high as a three. But again, it's not in a vacuum.
You need to see how those teams in front of them do and to to your reference with the tussle with Saint Mary's and Gonzaga is If Indiana exceeds expectations to close the expectations for st. Mary's and Gonzaga are twin pretty much all of their games Beyond playing each other. So if they can match tit-for-tat from a win-loss perspective or even somewhere close that, it's going to look, it's going to bode well for Indiana because those the quality of opposition
is just so much higher. So this Sunday I believe is when doesn't the committee come out this Sunday and do their first kind of for top for protected seed, kind of projection. Isn't that when you like a Bracketology, you get some idea of what the committee is, is putting into that Stu this year because me every year it's like they kind of focus on something
a little bit different. And it feels like this is we're coming up on that area where you can kind of get a feel for what the committee might be, you know, putting a little more weight on this year. Yeah. So that the bracket preview show is I believe on Saturday, at least I haven't documented asset. Okay bye. David warlock is a good follow for that. Kind of information on Twitter. I believe I saw him say that it's on Saturday probably around
I could very well be wrong. Maybe like Saturday at noon that's what is in my memory anyway. So that show is certainly a calibration point for any Bracketology just that that is worth their weight. And so I'll be paying attention certainly to that and to your point and to my dismay as a Bracketology That likes to especially so my as a professional I'm an actuary. So I love I don't for those 99% of the population may may or may not have heard of what an actuary is.
But essentially, they do risk management and quantification for insurance and Consulting companies. Anyway, they the the primary use of what they do on the job is looking at past data and and evaluating that in order to project, what's going to happen in the future. So when you As a committee that changes like you said what goes into the stew every year and you're looking for patterns they're like oh what's their pattern going to be this year?
They relied on something else last year and it's just kind of a pain to deal with the shifting of the committee and the shift of their focus. And it's like oh well if they seeded teams like they did last year then they're going to do
this. But then they're like oh well this year we focused in on some other thing and it just kind of bugs me a little bit but it is this that bracket preview shows a great opportunity to Calibrate where you're at, you know, like, when it comes out, I immediately as any Bracketology should shifts their top four seeds and I redo my bracket to align with what the committee does that day. And then, you know, like calibrated from there, but I'll
align with how they come out. And I like to for anyone that wants to follow me on Twitter, I do prior to the show, put out, you know, like my projection because most people I think, at this point are focusing on seating and less on. Oh, who are we? Play when you get down to the nitty-gritty and, you know, like and Conference tournament territory, then you can or even honestly what you get in the
March early. March, you can kind of, think about I who's likely for infirmity, Anna's perspective. If they're on the 45 line, who's likely to be a 12 or 13? That's kind of in the geographic proximity of us that we could play. How do we match up with them? You can start thinking about that a little bit later, but now people are more focused on seating. So, to that extent seeing those first four lines and you also get the To see what's nice about that, especially from Indiana's
perspective. Is they the, the committee will talk about other teams, they consider. So you can see if Indiana doesn't crack those top four lines. If they're at least, they'll usually put at least two other teams that they consider. So those you can glean as like the top five seats. So you can see really weird because Indiana is going to be right in the thick of things for that.
So you if it comes out and Indiana's and in the top four and they're In the other teams considered category, then you might glean that. Hey, the committee isn't doesn't view the Big Ten as finely as Big Ten fans might wish they did. I mean, that's and here fucking to an IU grad and IU fan on Indiana podcast. So, take it with a grain of salt if we're not in at least the other considered. I don't know what the committee is looking at. And I gotta say, I like Indiana
has a Sterling, at that point. We will have not played Illinois, but it's like you look at every metrics for Indiana. And, I mean, we have, you know, based on net Northwestern is a, as a tier 2 loss. But we have no tier 3 losses, no tier 4 losses, all of our other losses are Tier 1. We have, I'm not arguing with you. I'm just like that would be, that would be shocking if we weren't in at least that area. It does.
So to, I have a Twitter question based on this, but I do want to ask you this first like, as somebody dumb. Maybe. But why does the committee changed their their metrics every year, or like why wouldn't they just say? Kind of, here's what we're looking at here, is what you need to shoot for and then teams can kind of schedule. According like, why does it feel like some years is all based on non-conference scheduling some years it's based on, you know, quad or net.
One wins. Like why do they change their emphasis year to year? So this is just a hypothesis. I I wish I knew the answer because then I could. You know, look into the pattern of how they shift it and who so the first I guess I'll step back. The first part isn't so much. A hypothesis is a known fact, the the composition of the committee changes year to year and who's the head of the? There's a certain got it, you know like who heads up the committee?
I think they get a two-year stint and then it changes every two years who's the head of the committee. And then I don't quote me on this but I'm these numbers are in my head. I believe you have a five-year term on the committee but its role So it's not like there's a brand new committee every five years. Look, some committee members shift on during their the Cycles differed from one another and who's heading up the committee
differ. So, just based on that alone and what a given Committee Member values and who falls on often, who comes onto the committee, you can have shifting priorities in terms of what they value from a resume perspective. And then the, the cynic in me likes to think that The community doesn't want coaches and ades and people that are setting, these schedules to be able to figure out how to game the system. And so they want them to have a
moving Target, all the time. So that's I can't say that for with certainty, but that's my hypothesis that it's they don't want to know the ingredients that go into this too because then they can fine-tune their schedules or You like you might have teams that run tried running up the score and games in order to give their Advanced metrics. It's just they don't they don't want that happening.
So for the for that sake that's I think that's the other thing that kind of goes into it. And then you got Syracuse, sitting there being like, well what are these years? They're going to Value home wins against Bad opponents. We're just going to continually schedule nothing but home games against garbage opponents. And one of these years it's going to just it's going to we're going to kill it. That's behind being behind right there. You've been It, it forever. Apropos of nothing.
I did I loved his comment where he's like something about like, you know, I've earned the right to say when I'm gonna retire and it's like, okay, well Jimmy, you're free to do it any point like you are, you are like 78. Like, I people are waiting anyway, not do cares about Syracuse. We do have a question on Twitter from Matt Roth. Appreciator love, the title lat. This is kind of a going to this idea of like, what goes into, you know what? The committee looks for last year.
Indiana was punished by the For its non-conference slate. This year, the opponents were much tougher, does non-conference strength of schedule help seed case, even if the games were losses are Xavier game aside committee sets confusing pressing on this. See University of Michigan last year, which you obviously know. So I'm curious your thoughts on that sure. So non-conference strength of schedule is one of the, the what I've noticed in terms of the the
other than that. If because the net is the bread and butter than that is going to be What you rely on. That's why they developed the net and worked with Ken Palms. Agron, and the advanced metrics that go into. That is the RPI had come become a little bit outmoded, and they wanted to incorporate that from what I can glean not, not overly. So, they're still reliant on, you know, like, the actual tangible performance, they don't want to become overly reliant on what a team is capable of, but
it's rather. What did you actually do? And What I've seen is that, that non-catholics non-conference strength of schedule is a big thing, and more specifically to the question having a strong non conference loss, is better than having a week non-conference win. It has been, it always. I think it always will be you if
you go back. I don't remember exactly what what year it was, but there was a year where I'm pretty sure it was during the net era where Michigan, State and Vanderbilt Both got nine seeds at around 18 and 14, 18 and 13, 17 and 13. There it was it was the lowest wind total. I think that had, and they weren't even in the first four, it was during the first four are and they weren't, they were comfortable, they were on the 89 game.
So that, that is my that is the epitome of the, the valuing of strength of schedule as a whole and non-conference strength is scheduled plays into that, the one, Javier I will put is that non conference takes place earlier in the year and the committee tends to have some recency bias to a certain
extent. They this is a weird thing pattern that I've noticed over the last three years and its really frustrated me because I would have been that the bracket Matrix rankings that you alluded to.
I would have been a little bit higher had I not succumb to this, this particular pattern, the committee has recency bias but they I've noticed that they severely early undervalue Conference tournament performance because Conference tournament performance is a hole of your resume but they they have recency bias in terms of how did you close the regular season and then they tend to be a little bit dismissive of the
conference tournament. I'm getting a little bit tangential here to the question but the conference tournament performance. If you look at where a team is seated, going into the conference tournament and where they end up in the There's not a, in my opinion, there's not enough movement based on their conference tournament performance. And the case in point was last year, was Texas A&M being left out when they made a run to the conference Championship in the SEC.
And if you put pair that with their resume as a whole going into the conference tournament, they were certainly a tournament team, but the committee was like, oh well we don't want to. It's almost like they go in the other direction, like oh, we don't want to overweight car. Efforts tournament so performance so much that they underweight it. But, but circling back to the actual question not conference strength of schedule is a big deal that net obviously quad one
wins and losses, just quad quad. One games is a big thing and those are the, what I referenced earlier. Those are kind of, what's what I refer to as heuristics or shortcuts for the committee that maybe doesn't get to see a lot of these teams. And they're like, oh, what can we rely on? Oh, well, Quad one wins and losses. We know those are quality opponents. We set this algorithm in a way that we can use that as a shortcut to kind of identify the the quality of games that a team played.
And from that perspective Indiana's, looking good because they have 12 quad One games. Granted they're below, 500 but 5 and 7 in Quad one is better than 2 and 2 or something like that. So yeah. And one thing you know I always got bugged by you talk about. The schedule is always my
thought. You please correct me if I'm wrong but I always felt like with you know the trouble with with crean and his scheduling at the end for Indiana is like I'm just going to go to his like the 2016 season is like it wasn't that you know our non-conference we didn't play top-level opponents but to me it was always like when you play like Eastern, Illinois, or Alcorn State or McNeese State, you're playing these teams that are, you know, in the Ken Palm 250
plus, and I would always say like that that basically is like a zero if not a - to the committee like it just doesn't do anything. And I would always say just just play like Indiana State or somebody who's like in that hundred 150 range in the in Ken Palm rankings and you're still going to win, but you're not killing your schedule, an oddly looking at our schedule this year before we thought of it, like we're kind of hurting our non-conference.
You know, we have some high level, you know, the wind Xavier was good, the North Carolina game, we played rukka, we played a sorry, Arizona Kansas a good teams, but But I will say some of those other teams like you look at you know Morehead State Bethune-Cookman Little Rock Jackson State Elon, Kennesaw State Kennesaw State is 143 so they're fine. But like a lot of those teams I just mentioned are 250 or harming Bethune-Cookman 351st and Ken Palm elon's 322nd.
Obviously you know teams don't always pan out the way you expect them to. But you had if teams that are in the three hundreds of Ken Palm, you probably knew they were going to suck going into the year. And I it feels like cream was doing that in a That was really hurting our ability under crean to make tournament runs. Is that our other non-conference wasn't there? An oddly looking at this year? It's like, maybe that is what's pulling our ratings down a little bit.
But like you said, if we're winning Big 10 games, really
doesn't matter. Yeah. And and I found in tracking the net and where these teams come out in terms of opportunities and trying to minimize the number of quad for games, you have and get more quad three games even just because, you know, like you're not going to run, I don't know if you saw Michigan, State's non-conference schedule will not everyone's going to be willing to do something like that, where you just play an inordinate amount
of really, really good teams in a very short span, but To your point. Yeah. Trying to Target those teams that are going to be in that 125 to 200 range in the net. And you can use the the can the the preseason rankings and Ken pom is a sort of proxy for that. Those are going to be a great opportunities.
And just I mean any other states, a good example, anybody that's in sort of a mid-tier conference instead of playing someone from the meac or the swac, or the northeast, or one of those, you know, Perennially 16c generating conferences, played somebody from the Missouri Valley or somebody from the summit or something, you know, like, you know, like and and try not to play that, you know, like play them middle of the road team from one of those conferences, because then you're
going to get when they get in the conference play those that if you place them from the meac swac, whatever, they're, they're only going to drop because they're just going to play a lot of trash teams. And in conference, But if you can play a middle-of-the-road team that still should be very beatable from a mid-tier mid-major, then they're going to be playing like even if they don't end up placing in the top two or three in the conference, they're going to be playing a
team. That a couple of times a year, they're going to be playing a team or two. That is up there that they can lose to that they can then even with that loss, improve their net. So it's just from a scheduling perspective philosophically. It's Coaches are really an 80s or really way better off scheduling mid tier teams from a mid-tier mid-major than they are like a high-end team from a terrible conference.
Yeah. And that's something as I look at like you know Indiana versus Iowa State when you look at their you know their resumes like Iowa State just has one to four of eight you know, net Tier 1 wins. Indiana, you know, has six. And then it's like we have, you know, 37 tier 4 wins. They only have, you know, five and again some of this is all fluid because like, you know, unfortunately Minnesota's to your for, you know, Michigan State for us that when you Michigan State's.
Now, a tier 2 team. They might move up to a tier one, who knows? But it's all set. I also want to go back real quick and just edit. One thing I said I was looking at the wrong Northwestern game are lost last night at Northwestern was eight. Tier 1 loss, that's my mistake the loss at home, the Northwestern is a tear to loss and then that I say that's my fault, but also, it's like Indiana shouldn't be having two losses in Northwestern any season.
So that's that's partially. That's partially Indiana's fault as well. Before I go to the final kind of like a couple just committee questions theories. I want to run by you but just Big. Ten is a whole kind of taken the Bracketology out of it. Just as somebody who looks the numbers looks at all this. You know who I'll ask you the question.
This week's think produce, definitely heads and tails above, you know, everyone else, who do you see as the the second best team in the Big Ten and maybe kind of give us your thoughts on you know teams two through four. If you can kind of break that that mess up a little bit.
Sure and talk any smack you want about to about, Purdue feel free there that I can't talk to their having a phenomenally or my I guess the the extent of the sea Mac, I can talk about Purdue is, let's see what they actually do in the tournament, because Matt Painter has a has a penchant for he's not quite to to Rick Barnes level in terms of tournament, performance and underachieving.
But he, he, you know, like he has a penchant for, we'll see how they do when they actually get in the tournament play. But here's what I was telling a friend Jared part of the home, network Jared from assembly call worth, you'll have the pencil. It's gotten getting old to Purdue game together.
Weeks ago, you know, Edie gotten a for Ed, he got in foul trouble because you know, he's only getting, you know, one point, six fouls or 1.8 thousand game in the Big Ten, you know, just him and every other guard the country, it's makes a lot of sense. But you know, he had two fouls in the first half, they benched him and then Purdue looked kind of pedestrian. I mean, they're still great to you. I'm not talking too much smack, but they say it looks pedestrian.
They looked a little bit unsure without e.t. as any team would without, you know, such a gravitational pull like that but I was telling Jarrod like this This is what I think should scare every Purdue fan at their core is this is going to happen in the tournament like in the tournament he's going to be
called way differently. He's going to have a game maybe to where he's in foul trouble and it's not going to be Indiana that it's milk Alabama or somebody in the Elite 8 who's going to be running up and down and you know I'm that's what I think unfortunately is not enforced. I think it's gonna happen to Purdue. I think at the core every Purdue fan is frightened of that.
There will be a game where he gets three fouls in the first half and They're staring down like, you know, two young freshman guards playing, you know, super athletic guys, from Alabama, or Houston and just being like, Oh my God, what's happening to our season? Again, that's my thought. I'm curious. If you see that happening to, or if I'm just to Indiana base to make to view /, do you know
objectively know? I would be concerned if I was a Purdue fan to be. Well, anytime you have a Reliance on a, especially a Reliance on a big coming from the Big Ten, and I mean, I Alluded to this when I made the my joke, about the Big Ten officiating earlier was just, they officiate it in a different, they don't let you play football bath, tackle basketball. When you get into the tournament, they officiated a
different way. And so, if you you get eating in foul trouble, I agreed Purdue is that, I mean, they could Bow-Wow out and 89 games. They get the wrong, they run into the wrong team or certainly in the sweet 16 that becomes a risk. So you need to You need to be cautiously worried about that and try to and if I'm Matt Painter, I'm preparing and not to put the cart before the horse. But I'm preparing for how I avoid facing that situation this.
But I mean like that's if I after selection Sunday but in the interim between that and the start of the tournament, I'm doing everything I can to say, how do we keep Zaki out of foul trouble, because it changes the team dynamic. McEntire lie. So, anyway, back to the original question. I'm like, you know, how do you see the rest of the Big Ten after that? Yeah, I think Indiana's. The second best team in the Big Ten. Forget the standings.
I think that Indiana is I don't. The Gap is large, certainly between them and where I view Purdue I think produce Far and Away the best team but Indiana I would have as the second-best team. Illinois is right there too. It seems like every time I want to be Confident that Indiana's comfortably the second best team they really do. Something that makes me question that any time I want to think. Oh, maybe Illinois, surpassed them, they do something that
makes me question that. But I think there that's pretty comfortably, two and three. And honestly, if I'm, you know, like after the I think they're comfortably two and three and after that, you got, that's where I get a little bit more muddied. And and where I think you can put, Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa and Rutgers and any which order you want to put them in and any any point in time you
know. Like I think you know like you want to think that that Rutgers at home is the that the rack is a tough place to play but from remembering correctly. I don't I pretty sure they just lost to Nebraska at Iraq the other night and might might be misremembering. It might have been on the road but I'm pretty sure that they you know, like they That they lost at home drunk to Nebraska.
So knowing that was, yeah, yeah, so I'm saying that with conference that oh man, Rutgers is impossible place to. It's going to last place to win on the road and then they go and do that. So it's like all of those, those four teams. It's that's, that's the for I kind of think of how I totally admitted Northwestern. Sorry. I can't believe that skip my mind, but yeah, Northwestern is Comfortably for and then those
sorry. I, I can't believe I forgot those forgot about North. Estimate though. Yeah, Northwestern is for despite the fact that they like that, they swept Indiana. I still think that, that think that might just be a matchup thing or, you know, like any, it's anybody's guess how that happened. But, yeah. So reconvening Purdue
comfortably. One Indiana, Illinois, tooth pretty comfortably to I'd say two and three Northwestern for and then those other teams model at at five through eight and My if you look at my seating that kind of back that up. So Quince identity how the teams are performed and how I view them as a quality of team, I think pretty well aligns. I don't think anyone's really under or over performed. What should be expected of them thus far today?
Maybe, maybe if you look at preseason stuff, definitely, if you look at preseason stuff as a Michigan fan, Michigan and Ohio State of significantly underperformed not even being in the yeah. Miss fear of tournament eligibility, but A couple prediction questions and you know, it's tough to say. But for would you say that when we get to selection Sunday, Indiana will have the second highest seed in the Big Ten. They have a tough close to eat you, you reference, they're tough.
They have a lot of opportunities if they significantly under achieve with those opportunities to close the year, there's a possibility, the Illinois Northwestern could could take. Could you serve them in that that position but I think it's very likely they will be the second. Highest seated. Big Ten team do you think they would be? Like I'm kind of viewing them. As Is like 327, like I think I always think of, you know, seating is very much, like, you know, hurricane.
I just live in Houston for a while, just like you have the cone of uncertainty and like as the hurricane gets closer, kind of widen, you know, tightens up. And I think, you know, we've lost one and two were probably not going to drop to, you know, eight, nine ten obviously, if we lose out, things could happen. But I am assuming, you know, kind of we're going to, you know, hold serve at home. Probably lose Michigan State. Presuming, who knows what's going to happen?
But again, I look at kind of that. Rage is like our cone of uncertainty. Now, would you think that's a fair way to look at it? You think it's even tighter than that? Like, good. Would you say four to six? Yeah, and I know exactly the concept. I refer to it as the alligator mouth. Yep. So the alligator mouth tightening or it starts off wide and it tightens up. I think that we're if you want to, if I want to put a confidence interval, I think very very the the the tail of
tail side. Of each of that distribution, you know like that three side, seven side think it's very unlikely. I think you're if you're if I can say it was probably about 95% certainty that that Indiana should wind up between a 42-6. The one unique feature about that that could throw a wrench in that, is that a lot of those Big Ten teams that are behind them, are currently on that
seven line. So you have Northwestern Iowa, Rutgers, Michigan State so in with That being said those, those are other Big Ten teams where if you, if the committee, put some weird emphasis on where you fell in terms of seating teams that are on the same conference where you fall in the conference standings, then that could shift things a little bit, maybe leave or not a door, open for them to drop as low as a
seven. Or like you said, hey Tiff before Escape worst, worst worst case scenario happens but I'm 95% confident they'll end up between a 46. Yeah, I mean it's that I would agree with you. I still think it's a world where they can hit a three, but they'd have to probably went out and definitely win one of those Michigan State, Purdue Road games.
It's the big Ten's going to be weird because I honestly feel better about projecting Indiana's seed than where they're going to finish the Big Ten because they could finish second, they could finish like, eight, the good just based on like there could be like, you know, the 14th tiebreak. Figure out where they finished in the Big Ten. I don't know there's such a muddle Mass there in the middle, who knows? I've two more kind of conspiracy
questions to ask you that. I want to ask a bracket ologist before we wrap up. So one, I've represent Bunch while my better friends guile is the neighborhood on the street with me Robert as Michigan State fan but we're both big, big basketball college, basketball fans. He's had this theory that I love for a while.
He's convinced that the committee already has everything NG in place before the Big Ten championship game, like he thinks it's such a mistake, we play it right before the selection Sunday. I know it's great for, you know, lead in and get some viewers, but he's I personally think they probably have to two sets but he's like, no, it's all set like no matter what happens in that game, they've already set the bracket and it's all kind of fake of what happens there.
I'm curious if you think that's true or if the Big Ten is hurting Itself by being the last game, before the bracket reveal, I 100% subscribe. Is conspiracy theory. I don't think it's to the point that I don't think it's a conspiracy theory at all. I think the big time is doing a massive disservice. I think there are a couple other. I know my know. There are a couple other conferences. I can't remember who maybe the American might play on that
Sunday as well. Maybe the SEC, I don't remember for sure, but it is a disservice to the conference and I do think the completely are the committee's completely dismissive of results. On Sunday. I may Be part of it as me, being a little bit of a cynic. And if someone wants to this is a, this is a pitch for following me on Twitter. If someone wants to follow me Twitter and check my very old tweets from last year.
I think I tweeted something to this very topic and and my cynicism about this because there's something that bracket the what how they grade Bracketology star on something called a payment score and basically it's get six points. If you accurately project a teams Seed, you get four points, if you predict it within plus, or minus one line, you get three points if you accurately, predict them in the field, but are off by more than one seed line.
Then obviously, if there were some team that made the field that you didn't have in, you get zero points for that. So that's how your scored. It's called a payment score. My payment score last year would have been, I think Four Points higher, or maybe even six points higher if I would have just had my Saturday bracket, be my final bracket It because I adjusted my bracket for the result on Sunday and it didn't matter less
accurate. So that is that is the, the epitome of that conspiracy theory and I 100% subscribe to it. The committee completely disregards Sunday results. And so I would like to see The big tent, I'd like to see all Conference Championship in a perfect scenario or set up and I think this is what the Tweet said, maybe not verbatim, but something close to.
This is all conference tournaments to be completed on Saturday and then give the committee that, that much longer do actually and, and prevent the committee because the committee starts the bracketing process earlier on and prevent the committee from doing Any bracketing or seating or who's in, who's out until every single game is completed. So that kind of pushes twofold one.
You don't have scenarios where they can disregard someone seating based on a championship game and to you don't have a scenario where you put in a pinch because some team that wasn't in the field wins. You don't have to create all of these you know like five different brackets 40. What if this person wins the team wins?
What if this team wins so I'd like to see Everything moved up to Saturday and prevent any brand and give them 24 hours or 36 hours to complete it after, I guess it would be 24 hours after that to complete the bracket have one and done. I love that idea. I like that a lot.
The other thing, this is not a conspiracy it's just something that I've noticed just kind of off hand if I had to put money on it there's like a 2% chance Indiana's going to play in the Albany bracket just because I feel like when you look at you, Like Joe lunardi or guys, who put actually put out, you know, the full bracket with like locations, it feels like whenever we've been in the tournament and Grant we have been in the tournament enough lately, but I remember growing
up it was always like we would just be slotted like play and you know, wherever Pittsburgh pits and then all of a sudden, the grant comes out. It's like, I start looking at like flights, like I do go to Pittsburgh kinda like mentally, think about that. And all that, like, we're always somewhere different, like it's just like, no matter where we and we've been slotted, and that Albany bracket, and like 90% of the brackets I seen. And it's just kind of Totally.
It always feels like wherever it seems like we're going to go. We never go. So we'll probably end up in like, you know, Denver Orlando or something. The other one too. Just, I'll go think this is conspiracy at all. I think the committee does it. They never say it, but it's like one of the real things that does
get put into that stew. That never gets talked about, is I firmly believe the committee looks at all the stuff we're talking about but then they go down and look at like, what's the best matchups from a TV show perspective. And put together and I think that they like I think that affects both seed lines at times. Like I guarantee they're going to look at like, oh Houston Houston the one seed and you know it if Indiana is a five like five to six, it's like what.
If we put Indiana in the same bracket as Houston, then we can have Indiana versus K Samson like let's put that together. Like Indiana. Kentucky a couple of years ago I was I was astonished astonished when bob Knight was coaching at Texas Tech and we were never In like a sub bracket with them, like the years we were there. We were always my other side of
the bracket. I was like, this is so unlike the instead of like maybe that was almost two hands fisted to have like Indiana versus Texas Tech and Bob night against him but I think it's something that we all kind of understand. But I truly believe that it probably can affect an entire seed line from like up or down that they do try and make matchups where they look at like what would the sweet 16 Ali date? Final four matchups be.
And I think they even do it early in the Tournament, you know, can we make some fun matchups early on? So I'm curious your thoughts again. I think it's a theory. I think it's pretty obvious, but I think it's one of those things that like we kind of joke, but if I think in the end it probably does, it could affect seeding as much as maybe any other Factor we've talked about sure. So let me handle this one thing
at a time. First one, if you go to my website once again, I'll shamelessly plugging away. And yeah, 1313 one sports.com up towards the top when I have this. See lines. There's actually a hyperlink to a bracket that I do on a daily basis that does have all of the sub regionals and everything. The same way that lunardi and all of the more well-known but I
will say less accurate. If you look at those bracket Matrix rankings again shamelessly Bracketology just do so it does project where everyone's going to be and to your point Scott. It had. I have Indiana plane at Albany so you can book your flights not. Now, don't book your flights. This is not an ad. No, it just seems like they never end up. They never go where they supposed to go. But yeah, sure.
So yeah. So I do move those around and part of what goes into that is, you know, like they get geographical preference two teams, one through four, obviously in in descending order. So you're one lines are going to get the first first dibs and get
priority than by time. You get to the floor, you know, like you might have run out of sometimes it even happens at 3 you might run out of of a, you know, like a sub Regional pod that doesn't have a geographic proximity that a team would like so they have to be shipped off somewhere else. So honestly from a weird, Geographic perspective and might actually be better if for any and a fans if they want to
travel to be on the 5 line. Because once they get down to four, just based on the teams that are ahead of them, you know, like produced going to go to is going to take up one of the Columbus pods and if they're on the for line, Indiana can't In that you're like, they won, that can't be in the same Regional as for do because of, they have to deviate the based
on the bracketing rules. But to if Columbus is already taken as a sub Regional that they're not going to have the opportunity to go there and so like Columbus or Des Moines those, you know, like the and all but albany's, probably those based on the teams that are ahead of them albany's going to be the best bet for something that's closest. Where you might get a team like a Marquette Park.
Connecticut, or one of those big east teams taking Albany as a four seat or a, excuse me, as a for seeing, then they go there as a five as opposed to if they get up to the for line and there's somebody else that has Albany already taken, and all of the closer regionals already taken, that's where you end up getting shipped to, I, don't know, Sacramento or Birmingham or one of the less less clothes. Jinnah locations. So to that extent, I that, that might be something weird.
Nuance that Indiana fans might want to cheer for the, the, the counter that of The Devil's Advocate to that is just the everybody and their brother knows about the classic 512 matchup in to the extent that that wants to be avoided. You'd rather much rather play the next tier 3 conference champion and not end up playing somebody like a Charles Danner Southern Miss or Liberty, or one of those teams that or heaven
forbid. Play Oral Roberts that as Mac sadness, and he's just a stud having that Stuttgart where they can go off. And yep, go on a run, but going on a given bit of a tangent but it certainly, I think it's probable that Indiana ends up and not based on where I, how I have Team seated right now. Excuse me, they should avoid Sacramento and Denver, but they might.
I mean like the ship location would be more likely Orlando or Birmingham. So to the extent that you want to go to Orlando in March, which is a great time that that's that's I don't think people are going to complain about that regarding the matchup. So that's that's not even a conspiracy theory either. That's 100% accurate or I'm very confident that that happens. I don't think it happens. I would say it's a little bit less from a from the summer
summer olympics. That you suggested that might be willing to perform in order to align those teams. I don't think it's quite like shifting entire seed line. I don't know that it's quite to that. I believe it's quite to that extent, maybe. But I certainly think it's that they, when they have these teams seated, they're like, all right, you know? Like here's a couple teams that Aren't going to be you know like great TV ratings let's put them in the same sub-regional pod.
Oh, we have North Carolina as a tendon. And I mean it can't be Duke because Dukes in the same conference, but some other big draw, you know, like say Michigan. State was a seven, you know? Like if they could have North Carolina, Michigan State, there's like, oh, well, there's some animosity between those teams because North Carolina, like, last time Michigan State played in the, I think it's the last time. Michigan State played in Championship, North Carolina,
random off the court. I mean, that was whatever was I think that was when I was in school. But you know like there's those opportunities to have those kind of matchups. Certainly when it, you know, like setting them up in the first round or in that than the same sub-regional pod. I think that happens if there's an opportunity, I will say, you said moving seed lines. If it's borderline, I think maybe they do it, you know. Like if this team say, in my example, they had Michigan.
State as the best eight seed and they wanted them to Point North Carolina. Sure. Maybe they shimmy them up to the worst 7 seed to facilitate that, but I don't think they make massive movements to that, but I certainly think they do it for TV ratings. Yep. Well, hey, I really appreciate all the time. This has been awesome. Joe, thank you so much for joining and we'd love to have you back on before, we get to maybe like right around the Big
Ten Tournament time. Maybe, hopefully, hopefully Indiana's got one of those double buys and Go from there. But yeah, you know, check them out, 131 Sports, you've been, you know, right now you're the six rank Matrix on the bracket Matrix and there's you know, 200 140 there.
So you're high in that man you're getting a 1 or a 2 seed in the bracket Matrix and I love I'm not, I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I do love what I talked to like, you know, Andy bottoms as part of our network does really good Bracketology Galen like it does good. Bracketology like everyone who really gets into this stuff. Is always kind of like, yeah, well, Already Is Not Great, like
everyone goes one already. Ever looks a little ready but it's like his hit rate is not up there with the people who really know what they're doing, which is, which is funny. But in a way he's kind of doing something different. But like he's selling something. He's USA Today versus like actual like real news reporting. I would say yeah yeah it's a
little bit apples to oranges. But it certainly I think the the bracket ologist that I've been that put time and effort into this and have been perennially pretty accurate. Whenever someone on Twitter, There's a look at where lunardi has them. They we all collectively shudder just a little bit you know like maybe you could check someone a little bit more accurate, I get what he's solid and Jerry Palms,
kind of the same way. I think he's great at even lower, but if you look at the bracket Matrix when they whenever there's an update, they always put the the person who runs the bracket Matrix always put CBS and and ESPN they get front row billing. And I was like, and it just, you know, I'm like, I want that spot. So it's something that motivates me to be more accurate.
And like you said, if I'm a 1 or 2 seed, right now, my goal is to move into that that top for to get up from one seed by the end of this year. Yep, last question because this is actually as I've dug more into this like I just found the bracket Matrix like two years ago like I'm digging more into this. What are the best resources that you know what, best two or three resources that you use? That other people can kind of hop on to do this? I don't know, it can Palm torvik.
Lot of Sites out there. But is there anything else that you, you use to get some of the information that other people can kind of dig into? Yeah, I mean, can like you said, torvik and Ken pom, another one of those advanced. IT excites, the absolute want to plug is Evan Maya. Evaan miy, a is a good follow on Twitter as well and his stuff and his eye. He's his graphical and visual Presentation of his sight is very fluid and very smooth, very crisp and clean. So, I want to plug his sight to.
Yeah, I just, I just found him this season and I, because I found him something on Twitter. He was doing like the top five lineups. And he's got some great, really interesting stuff of like the top five lineups, the country the top five lineups per team. The top for man, three-minute like some really interesting lineup stuff showing you no offense of Defense efficiency based on line up. So yeah, it's a great call. I just got into that this year.
Yeah. And then for someone that is you know like that does you know like not to I don't mean this in any sort of disparaging way but Ken Palm the lot of the advanced stuff is behind a pay wall and everything that I've wanted to get from Maya at least for now is is rather lie available for free. So that's that's just another. Someone wants the surface level access and and some in-depth stuff for free than that's a great.
Great place to start that. I mean, the ncaa's obviously from a Bracketology perspective, the ncaa's net rankings. Warren Nolan is another one that has some of that stuff and just looking at depending on your approach to Bracketology. If you want to say, if you want to stick to the cuz torvik, does this? Both ways if you want to stick to the here? And now if the tournament started today, where would a team be seated? And then torvik also has a wear with a team.
Be seated if how we predict the rest of their season goes
actually comes to fruition. So there's different approaches, I think most Ecologist kind of take the, and I certainly do take the Here and Now approach, but you can kind of also look at, oh, you know, like, where might we end up on selection Sunday, if the, it plays out, how we expected to play out, if we win the games, were supposed to and lose the games, were expected to. So those are, those are kind of the ones that I will look at. And then other than that, it's
the standard resources, you know, looking at a team schedule on ESPN, or something is what else I use. And then to the extent that it's possible with The one in 31 year-old three-year-old at home, the eye test but that's that's a little bit harder these days, you know, like catch a few minutes here and there. But that's that I have to become a little bit more reliant. On those those those shortcuts that I disparage the committee for being relying on these days.
But I still like to think that I do enough research that that that I can make a reasonable guess and it's Out so far. So, right, thank you for coming on Joe again, it's 131 Sports 131, sports.com and 131 Sports at sorry at 131 Sports on Twitter. Check them out, gray stuff in the, we'll look forward to having you on right around the Big Ten Tournament time and hopefully that alligator mouth is closed and Indiana, at least being a protected, seen the for
line. So thank you guys all for listening, appreciate it until next time. This is Scott for Crimson cast signing off.