You're listening to the back home network presented by home field apparel. Welcome back to Crimson Cask ale and Flavio Scott Caulfield joining you here as it is basketball season, it is the 23rd of October and by the end of this week, we will have a Exhibition game under our Collective belts for IU, men's basketball, and certainly women's basketball getting started up as well.
I would like to point you all towards a new podcast, it's not technically new because it really got started last year called do the work that's being hosted by Cathy Jamison Jeff, Marlo. That's taking place within the back home network infrastructure, go find them on Twitter, go subscribe to them as they're tackling women's basketball on a regular basis. Also some good women's podcasts.
Through the IU student media network will be talking about those podcasts as we go through the season as well, maybe have those folks on. But today, we're going to talk, I you, men's basketball. We haven't done a full-on kind of preseason pod, yet. Both of us have been traveling Scott. It's good to see you in these circumstances as we are both definitely ready for basketball
season to begin. I think not just because of some disappointments elsewhere in the IU Athletics constellation, but legitimately This is an exciting beginning to the season and it is one of those Seasons that, you know, maybe it doesn't live up to expectations, maybe it exceeds expectations. We don't know. But it does feel like the floor is a bit higher and Scott, we haven't had those in a while,
you know. We, I feel like we've been living in purgatory to some degree as far as pre-seasons, go really since 2013 and, you know, so it's been a decade, but I feel like I you Comes into this season and the fans and the podcasters and everybody covering it comes into this season with a realistic reason for optimism in terms of the assembled talent and the relative expectations of IU compared to other folks. So I'm excited. How are you doing? I'm doing great.
I'm a couple thoughts on that first off. I was gone last week and I missed. I love the Ken. Palm drop scheduled. Oh, yeah. Like, I've been looking for that and like reloading that page over and over again, and it's the best, you know, whatever 20 bucks a year, you'll spend like the amount of information on the can Palm page is ridiculous. But you look at Indiana's can Palm predictions for the year.
It looks good. Like I've not seen a page like this is this reminds me of the every year I kind of play around. Ooh, Ken palm. And look at some of the other Big Ten teams, and this is one of those looks were, it's like a lot of W's. There's only one. Two, one, two, three, five projected losses. I know our projected record is 22 and nine, but of the win-loss has only five projected losses.
Based on those results, it looks like a page of other teams like this is like what I'm used to seeing when I look at like Michigan State or Michigan or Purdue or you know Alabama or other other programs. It's nice to see it on our page been looking at Palm or not projected to lose a game after the New Year? Well, I guess Iowa, but then we go on like a 10 game winning streak to them when we lose it, Michigan and other project that's not going to happen.
Yes, but I know I know but it's projection. That's nice to see. I love seeing green on these on these. These prediction cheer. They're not technically green on Kent bomb, but they're green on other sites. Like for instance, and the thing that I would say is talking to my wife yesterday driving to a wedding. We kind of did like a my first preview pause. So this week talking to her about it. She's like a are we gonna be good? Like it sound like we're going
to be good. She's she's very into basketball but kind of checks out and checks back in right around this time and we were talking and I was you know my feeling is this would be kind of the header is I think we're going to be good this year. I think the question is, is there a chance that we're going to be really good or great? And I think that's a fun place to be where we're not just you know, God can we make an 11 seed tournament? You know can we eat our way out to 500 in the Big Ten?
It does feel like for this. He's in the floor has been raved raised where we're going to be good. The question is, are we going to be able to hit the next level but to me if we're good and we're competing in that top four in the Big Ten, that's a, for where we've been and where we need to go. That's a really good season but you will dig into it. There's a lot of lot of reason
for optimism. I think I do think people need to stay, you know, somewhat reserved until we see some of this for real on the court against other you know, competent team. Eames. But yeah, I think that's to me that's the header of the preseason as Liz, you know, we're going to be good. The question is, could we be really good or great before we dive into it? Just a reminder that we are part
of the back home network. The back home network is brought to you by hold field apparel where you can get some great ideas. That's good. They're great are great. Yes. You can get some great IU related stuff off the home-field
apparel site. As we get ready to start this college, basketball season, the Bison hoodie, which is a favorite of both of ours is, you know, always Available on the website, one of the day, the best sellers they've got they have a they have a whole set of bison related items which I feel like this might be the year of the Bison from a college basketball perspective. I don't really know what that means, but I'm going to roll with it.
I bought a bison. Print, you know, basically a piece of paper with the bison and a little description of the history of it. It's framed, it's up on my wall right now. You've got all kinds of other really top-notch stuff, you can get the drop shadow. You hoodie, if you want to relive the 80s and 90s. That's that's that's what you want.
You want to have that drop shadow logo because that's when I, you is winning titles, not with the skinny Pitchfork that we currently have all kinds of great, designs across the board, get get them get, go buy them right now, use the code, use the code home H ome and you'll get 15% off your first order. There's a there's an 87 champions. Get in there. There's several basketball themed ones. There's just a bunch of different, awesome designs. And it's not just football.
There's a, just a crapload of basketball stuff in there. So go check it out. Home field apparel.com. Get yourself suited up as we get started in this upcoming IU, basketball season. All right Scott. So I'm gonna kind of take an overview of the metrics first. Yeah. And then I want to talk about the individual players because I'm noticing some themes in.
The Discord. Of the Season among fans and on to certain degrees among media as well, which I think are kind of missing the point to some degree. But anyway, we'll get to that. Let's start off with the metrics. So we're going to ignore rankings because preseason voting rankings from media members are about as worthless as you can get.
So we'll start with Ken Palm, which is the one that everybody's the most familiar with Indiana comes in 12th in the country in can Palm to start the season projected and you gotta keep Open mind. How can Palm works? It takes some of the information from last year and then it also basically tries to project how the team will perform this year, given the personnel and right now Indiana is projected with the 22nd most efficient offense and the ninth most efficient
defense. That's a pretty good combo. Certainly. There are teams that are in that top 15 or 20 that maybe have both of their their numbers a little bit higher or Are in the other one kind of in the middle.
But like, comparatively speaking Kansas is projected eighth and they have the 16th projected offensive efficiency, and the 10th projected defensive efficiency, Kentucky is, first Kentucky, I think will actually be very good this year and then it goes, Texas, Gonzaga Tennessee, Virginia Baylor, Houston Kansas, North Carolina, Arizona, UCLA, Indiana. You got to go down to 23rd, to get to the next big 10 team and that's Iowa. You produce 25th Michigan's 26th. Michigan state is 31st, Ohio
State's 32nd. Illinois is 33rd what that should tell you. Is this going to be a pretty good Big Ten Conference this year. A lot of really good teams, not really, not a great team and I throw Indiana into that. I don't think Indiana is a great team in terms of what they've got coming back and what their setup is. But of that whole mix of, you know, six or seven teams in the top, 35 Indiana is considered in the preseason to be the best of those.
You go to the other two ratings pages that I like to use bark torvik.com tour Vic's a great site. It's free for those who don't want to pay the very minimal subscription fee on Ken pom. Very similar Indiana is 11th on torvik 23rd in defensive efficiency projected, excuse me, sorry. 23rd and offensive efficiency 12th in defensive
efficiency. The other one is Haslam metrics, Indiana, not quite as high and Haslem metrics their 18th in Haslem. A couple of spots ahead of Purdue and then Ohio, State and Michigan right below that. But again, overall, I think, you know, you look at this Indiana team and you say, okay, it's not just fans. It's also the computers projecting this. They look at this Indiana Squad and they like what they see.
Now, Scott as we come into this, you look around and it essentially, there's two stories to tell one is as much as Archie Miller gets a lot of criticism and rightfully so The overall performance of Indiana during his tenure. You you have to say that you know by and large he did raise the defensive floor for this Indiana program from where it had been. And that is going to be an interesting Factor as we go into this upcoming season because you know, to some degree, you know, Indiana.
They need to be better than they were under Archie. Miller defensively. They topped out. I think it 26th verse season last year. Indiana ended the season up as the what was their final total they were 24th. So they had an incremental Improvement relatively speaking. We're talking about a pretty big leap like a leap of 10 to 15 spots into potentially being a top-10 defensive team that's going to be crucial.
I think for this Indiana team throughout the course of the season but then the big leap is on offense. I mean last year's team was 95th in the country in offensive efficiency and we're talking about them, taking a leap to being a top 25. Offensive team which Scott you. And I have been talking about. It feels like for like six or seven years now. Like if only Indiana could get good on offense and they just haven't been able to do so.
So I guess, let me ask you this, what do you think is more likely Indiana being a top-10 defensive team were being a top 25 offensive team being a defensive top 10 team. I think all the pieces are there and this is, you know, I hate to say all this because like, we just finished talking football, it's like, I'm so nervous. Nervous. Like my floor, not being true. But you look at to be a good
defensive team. You need good interior defense to start and all you can say is just like with race Thompson and Trace Jackson Davis if nothing else. They've been unbelievably consistent, had a nice growth trajectory and so it would be an insane aberration if they just did not come in and provide exactly what they provided last year, if not more and if they do that you're gonna have one of
the best interior defense. Has the country or at least in the Big Ten and so you just are So you're starting off with a great footing, where you have some of the best post offenders. I mean, Trace Jackson Davis was good and then last year he took a real step up and you have to assume that's partially his work and parse through the work of Mike Woodson's defensive approach. And so you can only imagine it's going to continue to get better and again just in the history of
trace and race. They've not shown this kind of like really good really bad. Like they've been both consistent and steady Growers and so you assume that at least if you just get What you got last year, you're going to have a great interior defense. Xavier Johnson has shown that he's a complete Pitbull and works really hard and if nothing else. I like, I'm not concerned about him, providing 100% effort every game like he will do that.
That's going to give you one really good defender on the perimeter. You just really need to fill in one or two more spots there. You have a lot of really good options there. That you hope a guy like Tamar Bates steps up. If Jordan Geronimo if his you know, trajectory continues to him. At the rate that we saw at the end of last year's, you know,
not all of them. This is something that I always, you know, tell people to, you know, they look at a an offseason and they give everybody the ultimate, you know, five, you know, they get the ultimate, you know, ten XP growth points every year. It's like not, everyone is going to have the best possible outcome in their results.
But what's great about this team is you don't need that because you know, that trace and race are going to give you what they're going to give you, you know, Xavier is going to give you all you need is. One of the freshmen and either Tamar Bates or Jordan Geronimo or somebody else just have a little bit of a growth and it's like, you now have an unbelievably great defensive team and that's, I think, you
know, a lot of its mentality. And one of the complaints, I think it was a legitimate complaint during the Archie
Miller era. Was that, even though fundamentally, I you was sound defensively, they seem to shrink in big moments, they weren't able to make key plays down the stretch of games and Also obviously their offense often let them down and they weren't able to you know, I mean you can make three great enemy that Purdue game from what was it like 20 2018 2019 where it was like, 4846 was the final and it's like Indiana was playing good defense and they just never
got the offense that they needed. So ended up kind of being this bad feedback loop. Now last year's team, while it's still struggled from some of those issues, certainly felt like a team that had more confidence in itself defensively and relied on each other more consistently and more effectively in those defensive situations. And I think as you said like the the idea for this team is not only have you increased the athleticism, especially with the, the younger folks that are
here. But also you've increased frankly, the I think the mentality a bit more because now you've got a whole nother offseason Worth of practice of thinking about things of reviewing tape and that is exciting. And I think what's also nice for this Indiana team is, you are built around some pretty athletic players who are big for their positions, you know? I mean, Trace Jackson Davis race Thompson, TJ D. Yo, you mentioned Jordan Geronimo who we haven't talked
about yet. Like a lot of the players who seem to struggle from a physicality perspective, you don't necessarily have those guys in the guys do Wouldn't look at and say, wow, your mega athletic, they tend to all be pretty hard workers for the most part defensively.
So, you know, they're going to need that obviously, as they are playing some pretty good teams offensively early on in this season and throughout, but if they can establish that mentality early on and really hang their hat on it, I do think that that'll have a kind of a carryover effect in terms of they know that they've got that in their back pocket and that's going Going to intimidate other teams and that's going to be a really fascinating thing to watch, develop because Indiana
just hasn't been an intimidating basketball team to play against for a long time. And even in the crane era, where they were intimidating, they tended to be intimidating because they had a bunch of shots, not because they were a dynamite defensive team. I mean, really was only 2013 that you could have attributed that kind of play to them. Yep. Yep. Well that's and that's when they had, you know, guys like Oladipo who were just you know crazy Defenders and athletic players
like that. No. I think it'd be great to see the offense, take a step up what the offense is going to have to do is we're going to need to have somebody who can consistently, hit threes? And the nice thing is, there's some, there's some people who could do it. You may be at CJ gun, maybe it's you know, Hood safiye know, maybe it's Miller cop kind of rounds back into some form. Although I'm a little more
dubious on that one. You maybe tomorrow Bates brings it into his game, you know, somebody's you can't become a dynamic offense without one or two people really being a Deadeye, three-point shooter. We just don't have a history of seeing it the but the thing is, I'm not being pessimistic because there's going again on offense, you know, and Xavier Johnson actually was a pretty good three-point shooter last year. You look at the numbers.
Like it wasn't that bad but you're going to have a lot of opportunity because if you if you have, you know, trace and race in the post and they're doing what they're doing, the court is going to be open for people to hit Threes And if they're if you have somebody starting to hit threes, it's actually going to become. As you just said a good positive feedback. Because now the defense is gonna
have to stretch out. It's going to give Trace more room to move in the bait in the, in the post, which is then going to cause more issues like, but there's gonna be an opportunity for someone to do it. It's just, I can't sit here and say it's going to happen because we haven't seen it happen in five or six years. And we've heard about, you know, guy Anthony Leo was a great high school, three point shooter and
it has not translated yet. And so the fact that CJ gun was a great high school shooter, I'm not saying it can't happen. It's just I haven't seen it. I need to see it before. I'm willing to say it whereas under Defense. I've seen it. Yeah. No I think that's fair. You know, you look at Indiana from a three-point shooting perspective as a program over the course of time and it really it's a fascinating tale.
I mean, if you go back and look, I'm going to just read off percentages program wise since 2010. Let's just start there. Alright, 34.1% in 2010 34.6% in 2011, 43.1% in And that's the kind of jump that we talked about last year. It's like, hey is this a possibility? And if you think about that team, that 2012 team, you know, it was really about Jordan holes becoming more mature as a shooter and as a player but it was also about Christian Watford hitting 44% of this threes.
It was about Derek Elston coming in off the bench and hitting 55% of those threes. It was about Matt Roth, being able to play in limited minutes and he 84% of his threes. It wasn't just the primary players. It was the role players coming in and contributing now continuing on Indiana was slightly worse in the 2013 season. They were 40.3% 34.4% and fourteen forty point, six percent, 15 41.6%, 16 38% and 17 and it goes 32.2%, 31.2% 32.6% 32.4% and then last year.
And I Oasis, 33.3%, where is Indiana going to land in three-point shooting? I think is a huge question, mark. And as you said, I mean, you look at this roster and you look at the players that are on it. And there are individuals who have shown some promise Xavier Johnson. Obviously, being one of them at thirty eight point three percent from last year.
Even Jordan Geronimo at 31%. It's like, well, that's at least something that you can build off of and then the rest of the Oscar. It's like you've got Miller cop obviously, as the other one at 36 point, 36 point one percent, that's a guy that has to take a leap in terms of his production.
I don't know if he's necessarily capable of doing that because you look at cops history as a player, his best season at Northwestern, he shot 39.6 percent from three and that was with a pretty high volume of shots. Now that would be fine but you've got to have some guys who can come in and in limited minutes, get shots up and hit them. And that's going to be a big question. I think more about the way the offense is Assured, as much as it is about the individual
confidence of the players. So I do think that that plays a big role in it, because if you can plug that in with the existing efficiency that is there with Trace Jackson Davis, who has consistently been one of the most efficient scorers in college basketball. During his career, I'll be at almost entirely from to. Now you've got not your cooking
a bit on offense. Now, you're able to say, hey instead of, you know, barely averaging a point per possession, adjusted Now you're averaging 1 Point 1 or 1 Point 12 points per possession and that really does make a difference statistically over the course of the season. That's the kind of thing that turns 12 losses into six or seven, because the variance there goes in your favor more
than going against you. The thing, one of my big questions going into this year is at the end of last season, you know, when Indiana turned it around and beat Michigan. And then be Illinois, laid, Iowa very well. Well, and then beat Wyoming. One of the things that changed was, you definitely saw a two-man game developed between Xavier Johnson and Trace Jackson Davis. And it wasn't, it just kind of came about.
It almost every one of those games there was at least, you know, to alley-oops where Xavier would drive the drive, the floor alley-oop to trace, and it would be a duck and they had a great little two-man game going, which, you know, you're adding more to this year's team. I'm very curious.
Is to see if that continues because if that continues and that becomes a backbone where it's like, all right, if we're starting to get into that slog, again where our offense isn't working, it's like we know we can fall back on a nice two main game, which, you know, it's not like they did it again. Slouches last year, my Illinois is one of the best teams in the country and they, they ran that over and over again.
They did it against Michigan. Didn't pretty high-pressure situations where they had to win some games and if they're able to cab that as a baseline, it's like, aren't we always know? We can go to that. Two-man game if they're able to work that I'm just very curious to see if that rolls over and continues to be part of the offense.
Because if that is something that can continue to work that again, is just a nice floor that you can build everything else off of it, it's going to make life a million times easier. For guys like hook Ruffino and Miller cop, it all those guys trying to come in as like if because if you can have that going then it's like everything else becomes easier. So I'm very curious to see if that continues and if it develops and grows up with an offseason of those guys.
Team together. So I want to switch gears a little bit, not too much but a little bit and talk about the players and we're going to we're going to do it like follow. So we're going to use the Scott Caulfield theorem of freshmen and we're going to put all the freshmen in their own bucket. And we're going to, we're going to kind of set them aside for the moment. We'll come back and talk about
them. But I've really, I've been trying to get my head around, how I feel about the roster this season, and what my expectations are and I've basically got the returning players in three different groups. And so I'm going to walk through those groups and see if you agree with me on the groups and then we can kind of talk through what the potential implications are of each of the groups and who we expect to actually contribute consistently throughout the course of the season.
Because one of the things and this is what I was referring to at the beginning of the podcast. I've seen a lot of talk from fans, I'm even seeing it from certain media, it's like, well, who's gonna Consistently since it looks like Indiana goes, ten
or eleven deep. And I remember having similar conversations in multiple previous years and it never actually works out that way where have every year, and then it's like, we have no bench but come February, it's like, trivia question for you Scott. How many players last year played more than 55% of possible minutes? I'm not going to look at Ken Pompey, trees up on my other screen, probably like, no more than 65.
He's five players. I was traced Jackson Davis race Thompson. They played the most Xavier Johnson Miller, cop, and then Parker Stewart. That was your fight. That was the top of everybody else. On the roster played, I think something like thirty three percent or fewer of available minutes and that includes Jordan Geronimo that includes Tamar baits. That includes Rob fantasy, that includes tray. Galileo, Galilei was injured. So you kind of give him a little bit of a pass point.
Being like there really weren't as many contributors as I thought that there were going to be last year and did the last. I'm just doing quickly that the previous two years, it was five players and then for playwrights know it's a very valid points and I think about every year that we always start the year being like I don't know how we're going to get hitched if you know any playing time. It's like no, there'll be time
for playing time. For everybody will get to a point where it's like I don't want anybody off the bench. Well go ahead and I think I mean, it's to some degree. What lesson do you take out of it? And for me, I guess where I've landed on it? Is this idea that ultimately a lot of these players? No, they, they're, they're press clippings are good. They're Q scores high, but realistically, there's plenty of opportunities to get on the floor.
If you're practicing well, and if you go out and actually execute and you look at the players who didn't participate in more than thirty, three percent of available minutes last year, and there were clear reasons why they didn't tomorrow, Bates could not shoot to save his life. Rob fennessy could not score to save his life.
Trey Galloway again. A lot of that had to do with injury but Well, you know, that it's hard to know fully what you're going to get out of tray Galloway yet at this point. So on and so forth. And I think you go back to previous years. It's the same thing. So you know, as much as Archie Miller system, for instance, was ripe for criticism. At the end of the day, guys, got
to step up and play. And if you don't you're probably not going to get minutes and that ultimately is going to be the big question mark coming into this year. I know it's like dub. I look at it like this. This year, you've got players That I would put into three separate buckets, the top bucket, the players that have demonstrated that they can consistently contribute on both offense and defense and are going to get the Lion's Share of
minutes aren't. And are essentially the core around which Indiana has to build this year. That's Trace Jackson Davis, race Thompson and Xavier Johnson. And I feel like those three are going to start every single game. Unless there's a suspension or something, and they are going to have to be the offensive and Of engines that drive this Indiana basketball program forward.
And, you know, you can do a lot with a cord that is that strong three guys who have played, you know, four or more years of college basketball, who have demonstrated an ability to score efficiently. All three of those players were above a point per possession and offensive efficiency, all three of those players have demonstrated that they're very good in their individual skill, set areas, Trace Jackson Davis. Of course, one of the top rebounders in the country, so is
race time. Epson Xavier Johnson, 14th in the country, and assist rate last year draws a lot of fouls. I feel good about that being the core, because you've got a point guard, you've got a 4 and a 5, or a 3 & A 4, however, you want to set it up that those are the positions that allow you to play around with some of the other ones. Do you disagree with any of that? No, I agree with that 100%. So the second group of players and this is where it gets a little bit tricky.
My second bucket of three is players who I feel. You'll very positively about their potential. Because of their athleticism or because of what they've demonstrated and or players who might be able to provide some volume in terms of either scoring or defensive minutes. My three players in that bucket. Are Jordan Geronimo. Tamar Bates and Miller cop now, they're all kind of different
players. I mean, Geronimo, you know, at least for me I look at that guy and I'm like, that's a guy who could take a Victor Oladipo style leap, he's got the talent, he's got the size, he's got Flexibility in terms of what he does. You know, he shot 31 percent from three last year which is probably the most surprising statistic that I might look. And I granted that was only nine made threes but still, but he was almost 60 percent from two,
he rebounded, the ball. Well, while he was in there and it looks like that's a guy who if he can play, the way that he played at the end of the year, throughout the entirety of the Season, could just lock himself into a starting position for the course of the season and I feel the same way about Miller cop. Like cop played a bunch started all 35 games, but I felt him relatively underwhelming on both offense and defense. There were moments when he played very well.
But there were also a lot of moments where you just kind of it looked like to some degree was going through the motions a little bit and, you know, for every the Iowa game where he, you know, he was, you know, 24/7 from three, but I thought played fairly well overall, you know. But his offensive rating was just not where it needed to be. You know, you flip that around, you look at that, you know, the Michigan game in the tournament or some of the games down the stretch in the conference.
He showed flashes, but he just wasn't consistent enough, but he's got clearly the skill set. And this is going to be his fifth year in the Big Ten. That's a guy where it's like you need to. This is a player who needs to play like a Max Bill felt or an exhaust Loft, you know, a guy who has a defined somewhat limited skill set but it doesn't take anything off the table. What he adds to the table more
than makes up for whatever. Asians he's got on defense or whatever the third guy and Tamar Bates. You know he had a kid last year who's a freshman. It was a transitional year looked like he was really struggling to find his spot you know I mean that was a five-star recruit clearly a guy that's got a lot of innate athleticism and basketball Talent. You look at his statistics and you're like, there's no way you can be that bad offensively for a second year. And that's ultimately, what kept
him off the floor. If you can, if he can make more shots, if you can be Efficient of a scorer that adds a tremendous additional facet to Indiana's back court that they frankly just didn't have last year.
So anyway, any thoughts on that? Yeah, I would I would swap Miller cop for Trey Galloway and here's why I agree with what you said on Jordan Geronimo. He, you know, as IU basketball fans, you know, we saw it with Oladipo, we saw with ogn an OB and I think we're highly attuned to look for guys who like are
ready to make that leap. With and are Geronimo checks, all of those boxes, you know, the last couple games of the season in the tournament, he was just amazingly, hit threes making blocks and he you know, this is a perfect situation for him to really have a great year because I think he's going to be overqualified to be kind of the third, big man in this lineup.
And so, you know, if he's in a lineup with Trace Jackson, Davis and race Thompson, obviously defensively teams are going to What him as like, well, he's the third person. You got to worry about when in reality, he's probably a number two or maybe a possible number one option, but he's going to be getting the third defensive, you know, option on him. So he's at a spot where he can really make some hay this year and is going to be kind of cast in a great position for him to
make that leap. So I agree with all of that and I agree with you, on tomorrow Bates, it last year, he showed moments on defense reads like this guy's got unbelievable athleticism. It felt like on offense, he was really pressing and it's like, he felt like he knew like I only have two minutes, I got to do something and that's not a great place to be. We're like you're trying to push it and then you're kind of going against the game playing. So I gotta show, I could do something.
And he just got to find a way to let the flow come to him and show a little more, but you would expect not that, not a great jump. But at least something more to me. I look at Trey Galloway as he's shown flashes, like he's been cut short with injury more than anything else. But when he's had a nice, Little stretch, he's had, you know four or five games in a row.
R has offensive rating has been over 100, he's had some really good stretches when he's been healthy and he also kind of provides a really nice defensive spark. So when I look at kind of the athletic guys with some upside, I would put him in more than cop. Because with cop, I think you're going to get what you're going to get and for him. It's like you just need him to be a better spot up shooter when he gets looks. And hopefully this year he's going to get more open looks,
but I think cop. His kind of you are going to get what you're going to get. So I would make that do that flip but you didn't. So tell us why you have Galloway in the others in the next bucket. Here's the thing. So this is and I want everybody to understand, there's nothing personal about any of the comments that were making about the players. People get really hung up on players, they love and any criticism of players is interpreted, like, you know, you're an asshole. I get that.
But this is the challenge of trying to podcast objectively. Here's the thing about Miller cop and I like I said, I wasn't Terribly impressed with his effort in some of the games last year. Look, like he was kind of just out there but he doesn't turn the ball over very much and he does hit a decent amount of shots. I mean, in the last three years of college basketball, he's shot 39% 32 percent, thirty six percent from three.
He's not the most efficient scorer and that does need to get better but I feel like he takes less off the table than Callaway does. Because if you look at Galloway and I know Galloway was injured last year, but at the end of the day, Trey Galloway for his career. He said, two consecutive years where his turnover rate was over, 22% was 22.8%. His freshman year was 22.8% his sophomore year and that's troubling.
Like if you're not, if you're not a volume scorer, if you're not a guy who can put a bunch of points up on the board and you don't have a clearly defined position because Trey Galloway is not a point guard and he's not really an effective to because he's shot from three, 18% and 21% in his two years at IU. So, So far and you're turning the ball over 23% of the time. You do something while only assisting outfit 15 percent and 16 percent, which are is assist
numbers. Essentially, you're in that - and I look, I know, he's, he does play defense fairly well, but not well enough to justify the lack of offensive production now could trade Gala, we make a big leap. Absolutely. But the purpose of these buckets is what do I feel like I know about a player based upon what we've seen and what, Our athletic and physical characteristics are and how will that translate?
And I just at this point unless Trey Galloway does a kind of a Tom Coverdale after his sophomore year thing where he just blossoms which is entirely possible. They know they share some characteristics physically at least. It buys players, Maybe not today, you know, but unless he makes that kind of a leap you know, especially with the freshmen coming in, I have a hard time, seeing him getting a huge amount of playing time.
And I also look at him and say, thus far what you showed me has not impressed me to the point where you are a key part of a formula. That's getting Indiana. A Big Ten title. So that's my rationale. No, that's, that's totally fair. I just, I look at it as he has more upside in my mind than Miller cop, I get where you're coming from. And I would also say with Trey, it's like it, you almost have to give him an incomplete because he just has not had a healthy stretch, right?
Just it's tough. And you hope that he can just have a year where he's Stays healthy. And it feels like when he's starting to understand his rhythm is right when he gets his right when he gets injured and then he's like, he's playing injured. So, but everything you said is valid to, but go ahead with next bucket. So the next bucket I have Galloway for all the reasons I just mentioned, then I think of the three and you're right. I mean, Galloway does have some
upside. I just, I don't think his current grade justifies playing him. Just for the upside, especially if Indiana has any, any desire to actually win the Big Ten title, the other two are low And Duncan who has essentially been a nonentity like he's day, he doesn't even have a Ken Palm page from last year because he
played. So, so infrequently and Anthony Lille, you know, soleal, when I look at Leo, you know, I look at a guy who has been able to come in and eat Play-Doh play limited minutes but it's a similar story to Trey Galloway where he you know he shot the ball better than Galloway. From three thirty percent is freshman year. 31 almost 32 percent his sophomore year but Turn the ball over, too much to
justify, what little, he's been able to provide on that end. 25% is freshman year was better last year, only turn the ball over on 20%, but when you're in in limited minutes and you're turning the ball over one out of every five times, that's a problem. And now Leo's also suffered from some injuries and I know he's had some enemies in a boot. I think for Hoosier hysteria you know and we hope that he gets better. But again this is a guy who
physically speaking. And in terms of what he can do alone, shooting the ball is, you know, could provide some key moments. But I would just I right now, if you're, if you're spreading the players out into tears, he's certainly in that lower tier Logan, dunk on his a guy who we just don't know a whole lot about. We've heard a lot in the preseason about how Logan Duncan
looks really good. All of a sudden, the Logan duck comes like really providing you know, some competition that's great but We've heard that before you know like dmarc Michelle was supposed to be a top-notch player in a grand. He never saw the floor but we hear this. A lot of times like what player really is looking good and it's gotten better. It's almost impossible to think that you've got a whole lot there, but that's okay.
If you get something out of any, of those three players where they forced their way in, and they're playing 16 to 20 minutes, that's great. That's awesome. That really does tell me, hey, I that this IU team has got it going because they're getting those sorts of contributions. But to some degree it's like you could get very minimal contributions from any of those three. As long as the the top six that I've highlighted are contributing consistently not turning the ball over scoring
efficiently. Playing good defense and I think Indiana still in really good shape. Then you've got the three income or the for incomers really one. Sorry go quick thing on Leo like to know, just one quick thing, only old it's you know it's tough because of all the guys that I watched like warming up, he has the best-looking three-shot. Like I know, there's no Shooter in high school. It's wild but you do, and it's from Bloomington. So that a lot of things going
there. But you know, I bring this up often, you know, stuff goes by fast in college like he's already halfway done with his career at IU like he's halfway there and normally things are mostly solidified and he's just, you know, he's a 30% 30%, three-point shooter. Yeah, and a 63% free-throw shooter, it's totally unfair. It's on 11 attempts like is not a lot of options numbers there.
But, you know, even I sometimes think like, throw them in the He's a Deadeye, three-point shooter, and it's like the numbers in games, just do not substantiate that. And, and I don't want to pick on him because he's no out of near
the end of the bench. But it's like it is tough for me, because I even get into that, like, I throw it hit some threes, it's like for being a career 30%, 3-point shooter, that's not somebody who can come in and just, you know, for all the Guff we gave Parker Stewart. He was like, shooting 34, 35 percent, you 30% is just not ideal.
And again, it's not like, you know, he does have a lot of options, but it's like, he's at the end of this year, he's going to be 75. I percent done with his college career so it's like there's half as careers already done. And look again, it's not personal. I love to see. Anthony will do well.
He's a great story but at least this is a competitive landscape and I think to some degree It's why it's why you have to play against defenders in college, basketball, rather than just, you know, you get credit for shooting on your own because you can have a great looking stroke, but there's other elements as we all know that have to go into being a good player and at the end of the day, you know I always get a kick out of fans or media clamoring for a player to play that isn't playing.
It's like do you think coaches aren't putting what they think is the best lineup for the best players out there on a consistent basis? And then, so I would love for Lille to contribute. I would love for dunk them to be able to come in and contribute. I guess my point in all of this is not to criticize them but simply say, if they don't, it is
not a crisis. If you get contributions out of the top six or top seven returners and that I would throw Galloway into that makes he certainly belongs to that second bucket more than he belongs to the third. Just not as much as I think. Some people think that he does, then you've got the four For newcomers coming in jail and Josephine. Oh Malik renew, Caleb Banks and
CJ gun. This is going to be interesting when you know one of the cool things about bart torvik site is he does try to quantify the potential contributions of incoming players and you don't necessarily mean you don't see those things on Ken Pon. But you do see them on torque on torvik because he's got this page is like top 10 projected contributors and what he's got is One who'd, shh, Fino contributing at a higher rate than Tamar Bates or Jordan
Geronimo, which is a really fascinating thing to think about. Because, you know, to some degree I think we we all get in a murdered with Geronimo and Bates because we know what the recruiting hype was with Geronimo. We saw how he played, you know, in the Big Ten tournament and we're like, wow, can we capitalize on that? But, statistically, you look at the whole season and it's like, okay. I understand why the computers aren't quite as high as the fans
are on these individuals. Who'd shit. Fino with his statistical profile. The projection right now on torvik is that he'd come in and average 63 and a half and one and a half, you know, so, six point three and a half rebounds 1 and a half assists and essentially immediately slot in as the second point guard on this team. And you know now that said it also projects tray Galloway to score about 7 points a game. I'm not 100% certain, I'm in on that.
But but that's, I do think that if you try to project out Hood sure Fino to me has the best opportunity to make the largest contribution of the incoming players immediately and at a rate that would put him, I guess. Squarely in that second bucket of players that Indiana's got of guys who we're not totally sure because we haven't seen them do it in multiple Seasons, but a guy that's clearly got the talent and the ability to contribute at a very high level
coming right out of the gate. Yeah. The, the torvik contributors. It's like, it's it's interesting to see who Chief, you know, and he said above Geronimo and Bates. I do think we're not going to be in for a great season, if trig always having, you know, a better statistical impact than Hood Shafi.
Know, like part of where I think this team can be supercharged, is if Renault or Hood shh pheno is truly the five-star that we expect to be getting like and this is again, no will continue to preface this no knocking any players.
Individuals. But, you know, it does feel like when other programs get five stars, like, oh, this guy's the five-star, like he's suddenly, take you over the offense and doing things the freshman and then, you know, we have tomorrow Bates who comes in and like it struggles trying to find his footing. It's like, that's not that's not the kind of five-star duke or Kentucky gets. And but this team, you know what I do like is the little bit that
I've seen the media. Talk about Hood Shafi know his teammates talk about it does and just watching him he looks like he has a college ready. Body it I'm starting to To get the feel like he really could be a legitimate impact, five-star freshman to come in and make some things happen. The one just side. Note that kind of made me chuckle, but I saw a comment were traced Jackson Davis said, oh, what's your fee knows a one and done with this guy is you know he's gonna be a one and done.
I thought, what I thought to myself Trace we all thought the same thing about you before your freshman year. And Tamar base, we are. Yeah, and here we are four years later. You're still here. I will say it wasn't. I will say, and I thought the
same thing. We'll say it was also the pro Scouts, who said the same thing about Hood, should be no. And that there's a big difference between, you know, a random recruiting board reporter saying this guy's a one-and-done and actual Pro Scouts coming in and saying the same thing. And so, anyway, will you take, I mean, we just don't have a good at. There's not a lot of, you know, one and done analogies and Indiana history.
So please forgive the analogy because I'm not saying this is the expectation or even he plays like that but, you know this is where again back to my initial premise, you know? A thesis for the year, you know, we're going to be good.
Are we going to be great? Is if, you know, the Baseline, let you talk about Xavier Johnson and race Thompson, and Trace Jackson Davis. If Hood Shafi, do comes in and plays again, pardon the comparison, but plays like an Eric Gordon type level suddenly like, you know, that's a true, five star one and done type player.
If he comes in comes in and plays like that with the base that we already talked about with those three, then suddenly, the needles moving toward great, Very quickly and that that's the part that gets me very excited. I don't think we even need that. If you take Renault and Hood, shh, pheno as a combination that together, they kind of play at that level, that's really good. But know, everything I'm hearing about Hood. Chiffino's starting to get me very excited.
I just again, what everyone's just pump the brakes. And let's like, let's see it against Xavier. Let's just see how it goes against a real opponents, but no, it's Everything we're hearing is good and you're right II. The teammates talking about teammates that is all with a huge grain of salt. But Pro Scouts talking about it is different. But again, you're only seeing guys, you know, there's guys who have great workouts and get drafted high in the NBA and
can't do it in games. You know, let's see how it happens against Real opponents but there's a lot of Spidey senses for me that are tingling that are like this kid could be the real deal and if he is it's going to open up everything for everybody else. Then again back. The great thing is like now if you know just a little you draw tomorrow or one of those guys has a jump, it's like now you're
really Edge into a great. But no, it's I'm very very excited to see what Hood Fino can bring on this team and even as a backup point guard that's we had trouble with last year. Xavier Johnson was fantastic. As our point guard, he will be our starting point guard but you know, he's at times prone to get into foul trouble, prone to kind of get a little bit, you know, overheated and just you need to kind of settle him down and we did not have a good second. Last year when Rob fantasy got
injured, right? And so if you're able to have somebody that you can hand the ball off to, it's like this is not a drop-off that also is a great place to be. Yeah, it's it's really the whole thing's fascinating and look, I think the other players this is the thing I think is interesting, this is why you want to have athletic skilled basketball players bring coming into your program, on a regular basis because I was really intrigued by Malik renew.
I, you know, I've heard a lot of good things about Your bank's CJ gun. I feel like there's almost got lost in the conversation a little bit, but that's the guy that I'm really intrigued by based upon how he performed in high school. And I think the key as you just mentioned, would save your Johnson is, there's got to be, they've got to get pushed. You've got to get pushed.
If you are going to be a good team, your starters have to feel like I have to play at a high level because I'm going to lose minutes or lose my starting position to the guys behind me and to wit the what we talked about earlier, About only five players played over 55 minutes really only five players played. Only over 35 minutes last year for Indiana. It's hard to look at that and not draw the conclusion that.
Well, part of the problem is that they weren't getting pushed sufficiently Enough by the guys who weren't playing that many minutes, they didn't have Mike, woodsen's trust, they didn't have Archie Miller's trust the previous year and that ultimately is how you end up being an average program as opposed to being a program where you're consistently able to compete and play it. Level.
And so it's hard to get a clear sense of exactly how those guys are going to fit into the equation because, you know, we just don't know how they're going to, you know, evolved to the college level. But I am really excited about the possibilities and I think that right now, you know, do those guys end up higher in the pecking order than the, some of the players that are currently on the roster, I do think that's
possible. They could end up higher in the pecking order but I you could still end up with just like eight players that are playing on a consistent basis and that might be for the best. Because if you got 10 or 11 players playing on this roster, I'm not sure if that's necessarily a good thing. That probably is a sign that stuff isn't going well because you're not getting enough consistency out of the guys that are supposed to be at the top of the pecking order. Yep.
No, I agree. And I also agree with you mention this for a second, but you know, Malik were no. I am very curious to see him play as well because he's, you know, again, who knows how these, you know, grading systems actually end up being real, but he's graded right below hood phaedo. And he comes in at 68, you know, has the length and so he could slot in, you know, right there behind Jordan Geronimo. He could be the best big man on
the second unit. I'm also, you know, this is where the one thing I would like to see change a little bit as Woodson had this propensity last year to kind of go line change for line change in a very MBA style of, we're gonna have a second unit and a first unit, I do hope that we see more mixing and matching and like I'd like to see if you know where no is playing. Well what does he look like with
Trace Jackson? Davis, or, you know, Jordan Geronimo playing with race Thompson or your let's mix and match. We have a team where I think you can do a lot of mixing and matching. I do hope that we don't get into a situation where it's like, you have hoods. You do in the second unit and then you have, you know, Xavier Johnson, the first unit, like I would love to see some mixing matching. Let's play Xavier and Hood together, you know?
So I could do it. That's something that pushin pushin Fina. It's too much, peanut oil. Yeah, yeah yeah anyway no. I agree with all that and I look I think ultimately as I you is true. I mean it's gonna take a while and this is where I would caution people and we're going to dive into the schedule as we close things up here, I would caution people to read, not to
read. Too much into the early results of this season, because I think it's just going to take a little bit of time for Indiana to figure out, like, who the best? Fourth and fifth players are. Yeah. If we were like, Xavier Johnson, Trace Jackson Davis race Thompson, who's the best fourth and fifth players? How do they fit? How does that contribute
defensively? Because I do think that that's going to have to be the starting point for this team and then how does that translate over offensively and and Fully what you see either with the newcomers or with Tamar bait stepping up or another cop stepping up or Jordan Geronimo stepping up is that you don't have to compromise which I think
in the end has been doing a lot. Not just under Archie Miller, not just under Mike Woodson but under Tom crean it was like well we're going to make a stylistic decision that we're going to sacrifice defense for offense under Tom crane we're going to sacrifice offense for defense under Archie Miller you know the best teams don't necessarily have to do that.
I mean, you're not gonna have a perfect roster, but I do think there's enough pieces and if they come together properly, you've got the possibility where you don't have to make as many compromises as Indiana's obviously made over the course of the last decade, essentially, in terms of who they're playing and how they're playing them in what formations, they're putting them in out there on the basketball court. So that going back to what we started off with.
Scott ultimately is what's going to decide how much of a leap Indiana's offense And how Indiana's defense makes that final jump up into the upper echelon of the top 10 top 15 defenses in the country if that's indeed going to happen.
Yep. So let's real quick on the schedule can pom is projecting right now, Indiana to finish the Season, 22 and 9, and 13 and 7. And, you know, it's when you look at the actual numbers in can Palm, it's like they don't necessarily match up because there's a difference between individual game projections right and probabilities. So if you have five straight games where you're projected to win but you're like a 52 percent.
To win in each of them, you're probably going to be braided is going 3 and 2, not 5 and 0 in those, but looking across like the, the only games that can pom is listing as more likely than not defeats our Arizona, which is actually a 50-50 game in the eyes of Ken pom. And that's a neutral Court game at Kansas or Indiana's, got a 35% chance of victory at Iowa, where it's a 48 percent chance of victory at Michigan 48, percent chance of Victory and at Purdue 48 percent chance of
victory. Hurry. Now, the flip side of that is, there's a lot of games in that 50 to 55 range that Indiana is projected to win Xavier. For instance, at Xavier, I you projected to win that game by by a 55 percent margin, only a one-point, projected margin of victory at Illinois, 52% at Michigan State, 51 percent. So when you look at some of the other rating systems, going back to torvik, toradex got the exact same projection 22 + 9, 13 and 7. With a slightly different set of
wins and losses. They've got, are you losing it Xavier? They've got I you losing at Michigan State but they've also got I you beating Arizona and there's a couple of other games that are slightly different and then the other one to note is, is Haslam s hasla? Metrics that one? I don't, they, it's a similar sort of thing where again, it's like, yes Indiana's probably going to lose in the eyes of Haslam's rating system.
At Xavier, but they're expected to I think when they there's one game that was like a surprise that they were planning on? Well, yeah the the Michigan State game again so ultimately 22 and nine whatever the formation if Indiana's 22 and 9 and 13 and 7 in the conference. Are you looking at that and saying wow that was a really successful season I feel happy about the way that that played out.
I think so. I think the the unknown there is where does 13 and nine slot you in the standings in the big tent and I think it's probably going to slot you in, you know, the top three or four and as long as that's the case I'm happy with
that. I think that's to me is I'm more important where we finish in the Big Ten then what our final Big Ten record is. I think if I have a hard time seeing 13 and 7, putting you fourth fifth, sixth or seventh in the Big Ten. So I'm going to say it's probably of going to be a good year.
So yeah, overall I would take that I think that's a team that's going to be in the top three in the Big Ten you're going to have you know double protect in the Big Ten Tournament. You're going to be in a spot where you can play yourself into a protected seed in the NCAA tournament. So yeah, I think that would be that would be that would be good. That'd be a good year now, the one, the one downside.
And again when you look at preseason projections, you don't know how your opponents are necessarily going to do. But you know, the it seems pretty clear from most of the rating systems, the three worst teams in the conference in Northwestern. Nebraska and Minnesota. Those are the three teams that in Ken pom are.
They're the only three teams that are projected right now at fewer than 10 wins in conference which is crazy to think about you know so but you have to factor that into strength of schedule and how everything fits in and unfortunately Indiana only plays for total games against those three teams. They do play Northwestern both home and away but they got a travel to Minnesota and they have Nebraska at home.
And you know that's unfortunate because this is where the bat the unbalanced schedule in the Big Ten is a real pain in the ass because you love Indiana to be able to have a slightly easier pathway where they get two additional games against those teams. And, you know, there's going to be other teams that they're playing against that have the the ability to play those teams more, which is probably going to
lead to more victories. So, it's not an Apples to Apples comparison, but I'm with you It's like if you're 13 and 7, but you have a tougher strength of schedule and you finished third in the conference in the regular season. I mean, that's disappointing, because I think if everything was equal, I like Indiana as the the slight favorite in the conference, but since everything is not equal.
You don't necessarily get the benefits of having been the quote-unquote best team in the conference if you play a tougher schedule but as you said ultimately for IU, I think so much of what this program needs is positioning. NG to do well in the NCAA tournament that even if they don't win the Big Ten if they're 13 and 7 and 22 and 9 and they played the schedule that they play this year. That is a huge step forward for the program and lays a nice
foundation for what. Hopefully comes next and that's ultimately what this is about. Like I there's certain teams that are clearly going to be in the mix for the national title. I don't think Indiana is quite in that class, that they certainly have peace. Is that if everything went right and if they got shooting that they have not had in seven or eight years. Yeah, it could happen but that seems unlikely but I do think this is a sweet 16 caliber team may be slightly better than that.
If Indiana is able to put everything together and play well throughout the course of the Season that will ultimately be what dictates that, you know, I guess for you. You know, is there, is there a red line where it's like this this level of accomplishment or this? Full of performance is not what I would consider to be acceptable. Like, is there a record where you're like? I can't believe after all of this hope. This is where we ended up.
It's a great question again for me, it's not a record but it's going to be kind of a standing per se and that is I honestly think anything below. I mean Red Line. I'll say anything below fifth in the conference, but I would honestly Edge more toward fourth. I think you need to finish in the top four in the Big Ten that this year because you know, quietly to I don't want to get
too big picture. But when you look at it, you know, we're kind of building to this year because next year, you know, race, Saint Xavier Johnson, Miller copper. Not going to be here. Xavier Trace Jackson Davis is probably not going to be here, you know, you're going to have a bit of a reset. You don't have any five stars lined up for coming in next year. So there's next year might be a little bit of a Down year when I mean, we'll see how the Freshman go, but you're definitely losing
a lot after this season. So it would be to me a disappointment, if this kind of built up and then you get to a point where you don't even finish in the top four in the Big Ten for the end. AAA I agree with you. I think a sweet 16 is something that I would aspire to, you know, this is I've you can't just say we got to make sweet 16 because there's a lot of factors at play there. You know, what does the seating look like? What see do you get? You know, what path do you get?
I think you know things happen in the tournament that can be tough but to me it's like I was you I think that you need to be in a position where you're giving yourself a good and realistic shot to get to the Sweet 16. And so to me that means again a fourth place finish in the Big Ten and then Probably being somewhere in the three, four, five, six, seed, in the NCAA tournament, but my red line is
probably at the five seats. So, being 345 see in the, in the, in the NCAA tournament to me, you're giving yourself. You have a shot to make sweet 16 and then, let's see how we do to get there. Let's not get our doors blown off in the first game in the second game. If it's a really close game in that 45 game, okay, you know, it's like that's not what I wanted to end, but things sometimes happen. You might not have your best game, but that's Of its, I don't really have like, it has to be
this or nothing else. Like, that's kind of where I'm at, but I agree with you. I think that, you know, I'd be very disappointed if this team made the tournament as a, you know, eight, nine, ten 11 seed, then it's like they're struggling to get to the Sweet 16 because they have to play you know Kentucky or a really tough UNC team or Kansas.
It's like all right. Well that's not what this was building up to on the flip side I do think on a positive note, if all the pieces come together, I could see this being see. Similar to that, you know, 2012 IU team, where I still will go to my grave thinking. If they don't play Kentucky in the sweet 16 that team probably goes to the final four, like they were the second best team in the tournament that year.
They just had a really bad draw and that seemed kind of came out of nowhere and suddenly, it's like, we're playing for a legitimate. I know we lost the sweet 16 but it's like we're playing the national champion toe-to-toe in the tournament. And I do think if things break, right? And if the if the you know, the instantly tournament breaks, right? And we play We think you all these pieces come out on the positive, I see a world where this team could be getting shot
in the final four. Like, I just, I do see that as a possibility, so I think that's the upside. But yeah, my ending red line is are the things that I laid out. What about for you? Yeah, I know, I feel kind of the same. I think, ultimately, I use ceiling is, it's going to be entirely dictated by how well, they shoot the ball from outside obvious. Such a huge part of the game and it's just a part of the game that IU basketball is just essentially, Not paid attention
to advocated. Advocated is exactly the word I couldn't think it. Thank you. They've advocated their responsibilities for shooting three-point shots and to some degree, it makes last year's season a great accomplishment given that they did it despite being a, you know like a very mediocre three-point shooting team nationally so look. Can you fix that? Obviously, that's why I read the percentage is off.
You can fix it if you focus on. There's nothing special in the water in Bloomington that says, you cannot shoot threes. You have to, you have to set up your offense in a way that makes it work. And look, I think there's a lot of factors in play right now about what Indiana could be the big thing, ultimately, and this is where I hope between the Purdue win last year at home. The fact they almost beat Purdue on the road last year at the tail end of the season.
And the way that they played in the Big Ten Tournament, the biggest other element other than outside shooting that's going to affect the ceiling of this team is, do they acquire a sense of superiority, not arrogance. But do they start to actually consider themselves a confident basketball team that can go out and beat anybody on any given night? You know, Mike Leach last night, they had a great quote, Mississippi State, got blown out by Alabama.
It was something along the lines of, you know, We got to stop being scared of players wearing the Alabama uniform. You know, if you want to scare our team, just put an Alabama uniform that on that'll scare the hell out of them. And that's kind of how I felt to some degree about IU basketball. The last several years, and it felt like it was finally starting to get shaken off a little bit.
Then it's not necessarily individual teams, but it's moments, like, IU basketball, has been scared of the moment for a long time and it's a consistency issue in terms of being able to come out and play it. A high level. Not just one night, you know, not just at Michigan State or not, just, you know, here. They're like, it has to be something where you come out with a Swagger. That's what IU basketball when it's been at its best has done and it's not just a bob Knight
thing. It was the same with Tom crane like 12 13 16. Those teams played gradually a 16 it took a while but those teams play with a confidence with a Swagger that You know, it gifted them points both offensively and defensively because they were in positions to do things and they felt like they could do it. There was a belief there and that's been missing for a long time and it started to come back a little bit last year.
And that's what's got me excited is that if they can take the good moments from last year and build on top of those with more good moments moving forward? You know, I mean they were they were closed in several games last year they just didn't, they didn't think did not. It had the confidence in themselves, whether that was the Syracuse game, either of the Wisconsin games, the Ohio, State game on the road, the Purdue game on the road, the Michigan State game on the road was kind
of a separate situation. You know, that there's enough there that if they can take the better moments and extrapolate from that, that's going to put them in a position where they can have the kind of season everybody wants. And so that's I think Mike Woodson's two biggest challenges make them shoot properly and well and Make them confident in themselves and if that happens, I agree with you, the sky's the limit and if it doesn't happen, I do worry.
You know, it's like you get to that fifth sixth, seventh range of the Big Ten that's like wow this team really is still suffering from one or both of those maladies and that I think will be very disappointing if that's how it goes.
Yes. And I will say this to like the if we're there, the concerning part is, as you mentioned the Big Ten is going to be solid but it's not like the murderer's row of a couple of Back where you have three teams in the top, five of K-pop, top five or 10 of Ken Palma. Give a lot of good teams but part of the reason that Indiana is projected to win the Big Ten and it's coming in so well is that we're returning a lot and a lot of other teams are losing
stuff. Like this is a bit of a for as good as the Big Ten might be kind of as a average conference like it's a bit of a Down year it's not as good as it was last year and it's very rarely. Do you get the kind of the cycle where you know what's frustrating? Strating is we did win the Big Ten and you know 2013 we were phenomenal but it's like God the Year we're good. As somebody Michigan's Dynamite Lake Michigan State's always Goods like whenever we've been good.
Unfortunately it seems like the Big Ten is also just turned into like this just Dynamite conference and this feels like one of the first times that the Big Ten is a little bit down and were a little bit up and so it's like this is a time to make some
hay while the sun shines. You know, the other thing I'll say, looking at the schedule is you have an ability here to really start Nicely. I said it's a couple times, you know, I think that Xavier game is key, because if you can win that, you're going to go into that North Carolina game for 50,
six in a row. And you're going to be probably ranked at least 12 or maybe in the top 10 depending on other people were losing, North Carolina will be somewhere in the top five, but that's going to be an electric atmosphere, but even if you lose that, you could go into the Arizona game being 81, you know, and you just, you can start the season off. With a very nice Bank of wins. You can kind of get to almost 10 or 11 wins for the Big 10 starts. And that's a really really nice
place to be last thing. I'll say it is funny when you look at Ken Pon browser on there, you know it has the projected win as you were mentioning the percent. You know we're 55 percent chance of winning Xavier, a lot of the games against like, you know, Little Rock is 99. I love that. We're playing Jackson State, like Ken Palm. Has to be like, no, it's 99.6. It's like that's how bad Jackson state is.
Just the, the only The only time we got to start putting decimals in like it's more than 99. Like that's just how bad they are. But anyway, no, I'm with you on all that. Look. Ultimately, I said, the last thing I'll say on this and we'll talk more and we're going to have some other folks, some guests on from around the IU media verse to talk about IU basketball. But I'm not going to get too. I'm not too wrapped up in expectations.
I'm really not. I think this team's got a potentially very high ceiling and I'm excited about that. But I'm also I'm not sitting here like And I know it's unfair, because I ask you this question, but I'm not sitting here saying, well, they must do this, or they must do that in the seasons of disappointment. I am really do, a large degree feeling like I am. I'm quietly confident that this
team is going to play. Well, I'm not going to get wrapped up in whether or not I you beat Xavier or beats North Carolina or beats Arizona, Arkansas, like it would suck if they lost all of those games. But I really do think that This is a team that is a work in progress. It's going to have to be a work in progress.
And what I care about ultimately with IU basketball is that they play well at the end of the season not that they play well, at the beginning or in the middle of the Season, you go, you know, look at the tournament last year. You know you look at the teams that made the elite eight that, you know, Miami and North Carolina. And you know, these teams that were not good. Regular season teams, we're in danger of, not making the tournament but we look back on those teams now in a row.
Wow, those were, how could you not look at those as being successful seasons for those teams at the end of the day because they played well when it mattered and that is ultimately the attitude. I'm taking about this team. If they lose two or three or even all four of those games, I just rattled off in the non-conference.
I'll be disappointed. I'll be like wow they're a lot further away from where they need to be that I would like to see but keep in mind the last team that people really like for IU basketball started off by losing a bunch of games early. And that they shouldn't have lost that was at 2016 team. They lost her Wake Forest they lost to UNLV.
They got obliterated by Duke and and they really didn't play a meaningfully good game in on winning, good game against a good team and they could argue until like Wisconsin at the beginning of January of that 2016 season and everybody looks back on that team is like wow, they won the Big Ten, they made the sweet 16 they beat Kentucky. We forget that it's not how they
started. It's ultimately what they became and how they Hushed. And so, and to further, make your point, the next year, 2017 is a team that beat Kansas and beat North Carolina and the preseason and then ended up Tom crean got fired as we lost the NIT so yummy. It's to make your point even more. Yes. Yeah, so anyway, that wraps it up for me, any final. Thoughts from you before we wrap up this podcast? No, I'm like, yo, I know you made it. You made me pick my Hardline but
I'm very much in the same spot. You are. I'm feeling quietly confident. I have Good Vibes on what the Freshman might be. I want to see it in action, but I'm I feel like this could be a fun, a fun year, a fun ride and I'm not going. I would urge everybody to kind of, you know, sit back and enjoy it and don't burden yourself or the team with expectations and what I mean by that is like yes, we need to have some level of things to Done. But, you know, I don't want to start being.
I'm starting to hear this little. Well, got to make a sweet 16. It's like look just part of the fun of years. Like this is like we're we're not expecting it. Like that's what was so tough in 2013 is like they come in. They're ranked number one in the
country. It's like all right well we got to do it like and the we got to do it years or tough because it's like when you lose the sweet 16 to Syracuse like that suck, but that's what I mean, we all want to take in that last year, had we gotten there the rise up?
Is sometimes more fun than the hey we're the best team and we've got to cash it in now and this does feel very much like a kind of rise up here where we can kind of come in and surprise people, Allah 2012, Allah 2016 and I just, I think from where I'm getting most people are kind of in the same boat we are, which is good. I just hope we don't get too far ahead and put too much expectations that we got to get
this done. Like just enjoy the ride but I I think this could be a really fun team to watch because we have a lot of guys we've seen over the years. A lot of guys that we know kind of what we're going to get out of them. You have really a generational decade type player and Trace Jackson. Davis, who could be getting close to some all-time records that I you like there's some really cool things that could be happening this year. So I'm I'm very optimistic and
excited for this year. So that's where I'm at. That's a good way to leave it. Alright, well we'll talk more about IU as they get started here pretty quickly. I mean, it's its heart, it feels like October is just flown by for me, Scott, I you probably feel the same. Yeah, but first exhibition game is this Saturday at 3:00 p.m. they play Marion, that's going to be on Big Ten.
Plus there's a big 10 plus sale right now, for those who haven't seen it, I think it's like $49 for the rest of the year. And that means you'll get both exhibition games and the opener, which So the second exhibition game is next Thursday, November 3rd, that's against st. Francis, and then that first game against Morehead, State is November, 7th, which is Monday all those games will be on Big Ten plus yes, what?
Just one last thing for people who are out there, who enjoy listening to Crimson cast first off, thank you, it's always appreciated. But secondly, this is it just because this is going to happen. Start getting really fast really quick. You and I are both scheduled to go to the Vegas game. The Arizona Game and Vegas. I think we're both scheduled to go. Yeah, scheduled like we were Called in by our bosses and said, hey, you got, you gotta go to Vegas, guys?
Yeah, that's not weird. Yeah, so we both have yes but no way. We're both planning on going to the to Vegas for Arizona. I think we're both planning on going to Kansas for that game. So just we're both will be there. I think we're both you. And I have talked, you know, offline. We're going to schedule something.
So I'm just throwing that out there for people that, you know, will try and have some kind of get together, live podcast, don't know what it'll be, but we'll have something in Vegas and hopefully something in Kansas as well. My More of a get-together than a live podcast. Was, you know. Yeah, but we'll figure something out, but, yes, we'll do not like Hobbit have an iPhone hitting record. Last time we did this, we ended up at a Buffalo, Wild Wings in Brooklyn, and so it's, yes, yes.
Hey, we get the manager. Gave us a good deal. Like that was actually pretty worked out pretty well. I wonder if that guy realizes how unimportant we actually were by, but he did that probably still is like, you know, we had a big, big, big radio show from Bloomington and it is like now the The like any way down also gave us like two bucks worth of buffalo wings. Grip really wasn't like, we got a huge deal either to Fair Point anyway.
All right, well we will be back with more later on this week and also next week we'll be talking IU basketball, have some guests on speak through that. I hope you folks have a wonderful rest of the day Scott. Thank you. We haven't done 2 plus h, where the podcasting in a day in a while before, so it's nice. But anyway, thanks don't feel apparel. Be sure to check out the rest of the back home network or somebody called do the work and several other shows and We'll be back soon.
We'll catch you folks on the flip side. Bring back the Bison. So long, everybody.